How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

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yamzusa
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Joined: Wed Mar 21, 2018 9:55 pm

How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by yamzusa » Wed Mar 21, 2018 10:22 pm

Hello, fellow members!

It's so nice to join the forum, and I hope I can learn a lot from this forum.

I have some funds that I pulled from investment in August 2014 due to some fear, actually a strong fear about Fed's ending QE.

Since then I've put them in CD accounts-I've learned now that it was not a wise decision.

Recently, I realized I can't do this anymore and want to start investing again.

But as you know, stock and real estate prices are so high.

I really want to start investing but don't know what to do under current market condition.

I'm very cautious about entering the market again.

Could you advise what I should do?

I'd really appreciate your suggestions.

***********************************************
Thanks for your comments, fellow members! Adding some info as suggested by ruralavalon.

What is your age? 51, employed full time. current salary around 70K. Married and file jointly (currently no income from wife.) Enjoying frugal lifestyle. Putting about $1500/month into savings.

What accounts do you have? I have two CD accounts. One was renewed on 3/8 at 2.10% APY. Another one is expiring on 4/10.

About how much do you have to invest? about 500K.

This 500K is from frugal and disciplined lifestyle and very hard and stressful work, without any inheritance or anyone's help. So, we try not to loose the original balance-I know this may not sound right in investment! :)

Do you have any debt? If so what types, amounts and interest rates?
Mortgage loan, about 200K left at 5.XX% ( I have to check detail.)

How much money is in each CD? Are the CDs in an IRA of some kind? When does the CD renewed 3/8 mature?
250K in each account. Regular CD, not IRA. One that I've renewed this year matures on Mar 2019. Another one expiring on 4/10 also has 250K as mentioned.

Allocation rate when I pulled my money in 2014:
60/40 (Stock/Bond).


What do you and spouse have in IRA, ROTH, 401k, etc?
$18K in 401K under my name. No (Roth)IRA for both.

Do you have an emergency fund or cash reserves other than the $500k?
Yes, I have ~50K installment savings that I put money monthly at 3.5% APY. Matures in April 2019.

When do you expect to retire?
I plan to retire in about 5 years, living in another country with monthly living expenses less than $2K.

Tax Brackets:
federal tax bracket: 12%
state tax bracket: 9.30%

What is your wife's age? 49

How much is in your 401k? 18K

How much do you contribute annually to the 401k? 1% of wage

Is there an employer match offered in your 401k, and if so what is it? I believe it's 1% match.

What funds are you using in your 401k? Transamerica.

Thank you!
Last edited by yamzusa on Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:04 am, edited 15 times in total.

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CyclingDuo
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by CyclingDuo » Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:01 am

ychousa wrote:
Wed Mar 21, 2018 10:22 pm
Hello, fellow members!

It's so nice to join the forum, and I hope I can learn a lot from this forum.

I have some funds that I pulled from investment in August 2014 due to some fear, actually a strong fear about Fed's ending QE.

Since then I've put them in CD accounts-I've learned now that it was not a wise decision.

Recently, I realized I can't do this anymore and want to start investing again.

But as you know, stock and real estate prices are so high (I'm in CA.)

I really want to start investing but don't know what to do under current market condition.

I don't want to buy equity unless there is a big correction (over 30% or more?)

Could you advise what I should do?

I'd really appreciate your suggestions.

Gene
Since 1802, it's been a bumpy ride. :mrgreen:

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Allixi
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by Allixi » Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:11 am

Keep waiting, there will be a 30% “correction” eventually; it may take a month, a year, or decade(s).

As long as you don’t mind losing out on all the gains until then.

Also keep in mind that 30% drop could actually be the start of a 50% (or more) drop, I hope you’re mentally ready for that too.

magicrat
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by magicrat » Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:45 am

ychousa wrote:
Wed Mar 21, 2018 10:22 pm


But as you know, stock and real estate prices are so high (I'm in CA.)

I don't know this at all. Why do you think this? What metric are using, and what value of that metric makes stock prices high? At what value of that metric will stock prices not be high? How likely is that to occur, and when? What is your track record with forecasting movements in stock prices?

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ruralavalon
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Location: Illinois

Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by ruralavalon » Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:53 am

Welcome to the forum :) .

ychousa wrote:
Wed Mar 21, 2018 10:22 pm
Hello, fellow members!

It's so nice to join the forum, and I hope I can learn a lot from this forum.

I have some funds that I pulled from investment in August 2014 due to some fear, actually a strong fear about Fed's ending QE.

Since then I've put them in CD accounts-I've learned now that it was not a wise decision.

Recently, I realized I can't do this anymore and want to start investing again.

But as you know, stock and real estate prices are so high (I'm in CA.)

I really want to start investing but don't know what to do under current market condition.

I don't want to buy equity unless there is a big correction (over 30% or more?)

Could you advise what I should do?

I'd really appreciate your suggestions.

Gene
Stop trying to time the market, stop trying to guess what will happen next.

What is your age? What accounts do you have have? About how much do you have to invest? Please simply add this to your original post using the edit button (the pencil icon near the upper right corner of your post), it helps a lot if all of your information is in one place.

1) Choose a reasonable asset allocation that you can feel comfortable with long-term, please see the wiki article "Asset Allocation", and the wiki article "Boglehead's Investment Philosophy" the section entitled "never bear too much or too little risk".

2) Select a few very low expense, very diversified index funds to use. Please see the wiki article "Three-fund Portfolio".

3) Then go ahead and invest.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

22twain
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by 22twain » Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:56 am

Have you read the story of Bob, the world's worst market timer, who had the misfortune of always investing at market peaks, just before crashes or corrections, but turned out pretty well in the end anyway?
My investing princiPLEs do not include absolutely preserving princiPAL.

Grt2bOutdoors
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:07 am

In 1983 when my parents bought their home, the price of homes were high vs. what they made in annual income. Mortgages were charging double-digits in interest. Easy? No, it wasn't easy then, unemployment was in the high single digits. Fast forward, nearly 35 years later, the price of the home is up nearly 8X. Even with the price of the home being as high as it is, there are willing buyers all around, homes priced as high as they are in nominal terms don't stay for sale very long. Renting is even worse, rents are nearly as high as monthly mortgage payments making it a pretty easy decision to purchase so long as you have a healthy down payment.

Equities - high priced? I'd say they are fairly priced, look at International equities - flat to down this year, great time to buy equities is when no one wants them. Domestic equities - not doing that much better, great time to get in. Don't invest in any category unless you have a time horizon that exceeds 10 years. If during the ten years, the market does absolutely zero, you will be picking shares up, just keep picking more and more shares up with each and every purchase, lots of folks will get discouraged and "sell", fine, let them sell at a lower price, while you continue to pick them up at cheaper and cheaper prices. When the market turns up and it will turn up eventually, your cheaper shares? well they are going to become alot more valuable, people will pay Ray, they will most certainly pay, they will come from near and far for a chance to buy some of your shares and they will pay more than you paid. That is when you start making real money. But you have to be able to stick with it, don't look at it, don't care what the market is doing today, tomorrow, next week, next month, only care that you are picking up more and more shares, more and more dividends (reinvest those) and one day, you'll be saying to yourself, I remember when I bought shares at $30, now they are $60! or I was buying Total Stock Market Index at $65, now they are $165. But you have to be patient, the market may not rise at 6% clip every year, it might only rise 4% or it could rise 8% over the long haul, you have to be in it to realize it though. Patience.......
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

UpperNwGuy
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by UpperNwGuy » Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:36 am

Your fear of getting back into the market in 2018 is the same fear that caused you to leave the market in 2014. You admit that you made a mistake in 2014. Don't repeat that mistake in 2018.
Retiree with a pension and a 60/40 taxable portfolio: Total Stock + Total Int'l + Total Bond + Interm Term Tax Exempt.

asif408
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by asif408 » Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:40 am

ychousa wrote:
Wed Mar 21, 2018 10:22 pm
I don't want to buy equity unless there is a big correction (over 30% or more?)
Gene,

I have some great news for you! The stock markets in Russia, Turkey, Brazil, Poland, and Spain are all down over 30% since May 2011, while the US market has doubled: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/etf ... 2%3A955%7D

Any interest in buying these?

Jack FFR1846
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:49 am

Gene, I believe you are one of those rare people on this forum who would benefit from a financial adviser. Your emotional handling of your investments is working against you. Even paying 1% AUM and higher ERs will result in a better return than you're able to get for yourself.
Bogle: Smart Beta is stupid

Beehave
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by Beehave » Thu Mar 22, 2018 9:59 am

Based on your concerns, here's what might work for you.

Take a thousand bucks. Invest it into the Vanguard STAR fund. Then contribute a fixed amount every month ($100, 200, ...500 or whatever) to the STAR fund until you have a $3000 balance. Then pick another of the balanced funds that has a stock-to-bond ratio that you like - - check out the various life strategy funds, the balanced fund, Wellington, Wellesley, tax managed balanced (but not for a retirement acc't) or leave the money in the STAR fund.

You will be dollar cost averaging into the market and bonds. If both bonds and stocks are going down you are buying at "bargain" rates. If they are going up, you have bought some at a bargain and what you are buying is at a bargain. If one asset class is rising and the other tanking, you are buying intelligently and rebalancing intelligently. Keep cash on-hand so that if there is a major downturn you can buy more at bargain.

My thought is that the auto-rebalancing of the funds and the "dry powder" reserve of cash to invest on downturns will give you the peace of mind required to stay the course for the future as you increase your stock and bond holdings and thus, in the long run, profit from your investments.

Your money should not make you miserable. You need to find an allocation strategy that helps you be at peace with your finances. You are not there now and will not be with an all-in position. You need to find a happy medium; and thus a balanced fund with some cash-on-hand seems to me to be the best bet for you.

My opinion,,, best wishes to you.

H-Town
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by H-Town » Thu Mar 22, 2018 10:02 am

ychousa wrote:
Wed Mar 21, 2018 10:22 pm
Hello, fellow members!

It's so nice to join the forum, and I hope I can learn a lot from this forum.

I have some funds that I pulled from investment in August 2014 due to some fear, actually a strong fear about Fed's ending QE.

Since then I've put them in CD accounts-I've learned now that it was not a wise decision.

Recently, I realized I can't do this anymore and want to start investing again.

But as you know, stock and real estate prices are so high (I'm in CA.)

I really want to start investing but don't know what to do under current market condition.

I don't want to buy equity unless there is a big correction (over 30% or more?)

Could you advise what I should do?

I'd really appreciate your suggestions.

Gene
What lesson did you learn from 2014?

Darth Xanadu
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by Darth Xanadu » Thu Mar 22, 2018 10:33 am

Allixi wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:11 am
Keep waiting, there will be a 30% “correction” eventually; it may take a month, a year, or decade(s).

As long as you don’t mind losing out on all the gains until then.

Also keep in mind that 30% drop could actually be the start of a 50% (or more) drop, I hope you’re mentally ready for that too.
This is good advice. How would you feel if the next 30% correction happens in 5 years, and the prices after such correction are 20% higher than they are now?

EDIT: My guess is if this happens, we'll see a post from you saying "I didn't invest in 2018 because I was waiting for a correction - I've learned now this was not a wise decision."
"A courageous teacher, failure is."

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Sandtrap
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by Sandtrap » Thu Mar 22, 2018 10:42 am

Some notes for review:
GETTING STARTED
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started

Have you done this?
Define General Investment Goals and Objectives (what is your plan?)
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Invest ... statement

Repost of previous poster's link.
Read About Bob, The Worst Market Timer
What happens if you only invested at market highs?
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/0 ... ket-timer/

Saving the best for last:
Investing Behavior Pitfalls
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Behavioral_pitfalls

Do this for a comprehensive portfolio review and suggestions on other paths and options:
Asking Portfolio Questions
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewt ... =1&t=6212

**How much do you have to invest in real estate income property?

aloha,
j

stocknoob4111
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by stocknoob4111 » Thu Mar 22, 2018 10:44 am

ychousa wrote:
Wed Mar 21, 2018 10:22 pm
I have some funds that I pulled from investment in August 2014 due to some fear, actually a strong fear about Fed's ending QE.

Since then I've put them in CD accounts-I've learned now that it was not a wise decision.
Put it into the market and forget about it. Forget about whether a correction will happen or not and change your mindset to a long term strategy. Yes, you may put your money in and over the next few months it may drop 30% but if you look at history over the last 100 years it has always come back and gone further up.

What else are you going to do? Timing the market is virtually impossible, i've tried it and the markets are completely irrational and besides the geopolitical and economic landscape is dynamic and you never know what is going to happen and when.

I'm not so crazy about Real estate though because it's debt to be serviced and given the astronomical prices of homes in Southern CA you don't want to buy an asset that is actually a liability should a recession comes and you lose your job. Unless you have a very fat buffer.

yamzusa
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by yamzusa » Thu Mar 22, 2018 10:52 am

Hello, fellow members,

I really appreciate all your comments and suggestions.

I'm at work now so I will read all your comments in detail when I have a chance and respond asap.
ruralavalon wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:53 am
Welcome to the forum :) .

Stop trying to time the market, stop trying to guess what will happen next.

What is your age? What accounts do you have have? About how much do you have to invest? Please simply add this to your original post using the edit button
@ruralavalon, I've added my info on my original post as suggested.

Thank you!
Last edited by yamzusa on Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.

delamer
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by delamer » Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:00 am

Darth Xanadu wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 10:33 am
Allixi wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:11 am
Keep waiting, there will be a 30% “correction” eventually; it may take a month, a year, or decade(s).

As long as you don’t mind losing out on all the gains until then.

Also keep in mind that 30% drop could actually be the start of a 50% (or more) drop, I hope you’re mentally ready for that too.
This is good advice. How would you feel if the next 30% correction happens in 5 years, and the prices after such correction are 20% higher than they are now?

EDIT: My guess is if this happens, we'll see a post from you saying "I didn't invest in 2018 because I was waiting for a correction - I've learned now this was not a wise decision."
This is right. You could wait for the 30% correction and still end up paying more for stocks than you would if you bought today,

There are two things you need to believe/understand before investing in the stock market:

1. The stock market is for long-term investments. If you aren’t comfortable keeping money in it for 10 years or more, then don’t invest.

2. When you invest in the stock market, you do so because you believe that — over the long run — your investment will be worth more in the future than it is today. It doesn’t matter that today’s prices are at an all time high, it only matters that they will be higher in the future. If you don’t believe that, then don’t invest.

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Sandtrap
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by Sandtrap » Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:09 am

What do you and spouse have in IRA, ROTH, 401k, etc?
How much in spouse's, and what funds?
How much in yours and what funds?
Do you have an emergency fund or cash reserves other than the $500k?
How much and where?
When do you expect to retire?

Can you edit your original post to include that?

mahalo,
j :D

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ruralavalon
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by ruralavalon » Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:27 am

ychousa wrote:
Wed Mar 21, 2018 10:22 pm
Hello, fellow members!

It's so nice to join the forum, and I hope I can learn a lot from this forum.

I have some funds that I pulled from investment in August 2014 due to some fear, actually a strong fear about Fed's ending QE.

Since then I've put them in CD accounts-I've learned now that it was not a wise decision.

Recently, I realized I can't do this anymore and want to start investing again.

But as you know, stock and real estate prices are so high (I'm in CA.)

I really want to start investing but don't know what to do under current market condition.

I don't want to buy equity unless there is a big correction (over 30% or more?)

Could you advise what I should do?

I'd really appreciate your suggestions.

Gene
***********************************************
Thanks for your comments, fellow members! Adding some info as suggested by ruralavalon.

What is your age? 51, employed full time. current salary around 70K. Married and file jointly (currently no income from wife.) Enjoying frugal lifestyle. Put about $1500/month into savings.

What accounts do you have? I have two CD accounts. One was renewed on 3/8 at 2.10% APY. Another one is expiring on 4/10.

About how much do you have to invest? about 500K.

This 500K is from frugal and disciplined lifestyle and very hard and stressful work, without any inheritance or anyone's help. So, we try not to loose the original balance-I know this may not sound right in investment! :) Thank you!
At age 51 you could consider an asset allocation of 60/40 stocks/bonds. This should be fairly conservative, although any investment has risk.

Do you have any debt? If so what types, amounts and interest rates?

What is your tax bracket, both federal and state?

How much money is in each CD? Are the CDs in an IRA of some kind? When does the CD renewed 3/8 mature?

Is there a work-based plan (such as a 401k, 403b, 457, TSP) at your employer? If so is there an employer match offered? What funds are offered in that plan? Please give fund names, tickers and expense ratios.

Again please just add this to your original post using the edit button.

. . . . . .

It will probably be a good idea to open two Roth IRAs, one for you and one for your wife, at a low cost provider like Vanguard or Fidelity, and use those accounts to invest some or all of the money from the CD which matures 4/10.

My personal preference for the Roth IRAs is Vanguard, they offer by far the largest selection of low cost mutual funds offered anywhere. Do you have any preference as between Vanguard and Fidelity?

Since your tax filing status is married filing jointly, you can contribute to an IRA for your wife based on your income even though she is not employed.

If there is a work-based plan available, then it's probably also a good idea to start using that especially if an employer match is offered.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

wolf359
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by wolf359 » Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:42 am

First off, most people invest part of their paychecks on a regular basis, and not just the lump sum. Put in enough to establish the account minimums, and start your regular contributions. This has two effects: 1) You don't have much money at risk, because your new contributions really won't be much. (Will you lose much sleep if the market crashed 50% and you have $30K at stake. On the contrary, you'd move the rest of your money in.) 2) It gets you past the bar of getting back into the market. You'll be in, and investing again. And your problem isn't getting worse anymore. You're participating more and more.

Next, the question is how to get your existing funds back in. I'd suggest setting a timeframe that's acceptable, then dollar cost averaging in. For example, if you think a crash is imminent in the next 2 years, that's 24 months. Add 1/24th of your remaining balance back to the market each month for 24 months. If the market goes down significantly, then your 30% drop threshold is met, and you invest the rest.

Is this mathematically optimal? No, but it feels much better psychologically. It lets you ease back in if you have strong feelings about the direction of the market.

Finally, the underlying root problem that caused the situation needs to be addressed. You had an inappropriate allocation, such that you bailed out. You need to determine what the right mix of stocks and bonds is, that you're willing to stick with through thick and thin. It might be good to use a target date fund, where the allocations are set for you, and you don't see all the moving parts go up and down. You might try a robo-advisor, trusting the computers not to make emotional decisions. Or you might try a financial advisor, so you have someone to talk to when the markets go south.

yamzusa
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by yamzusa » Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:45 am

Hey, folks,

I will find out more details for the requested information tonight and add them in my original post asap.

Thank you! :thumbsup

Nate79
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by Nate79 » Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:00 pm

Should you really be asking this question considering your track record so far of world's worst market timer?

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ruralavalon
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by ruralavalon » Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:05 pm

ychousa wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:45 am
Hey, folks,

I will find out more details for the requested information tonight and add them in my original post asap.

Thank you! :thumbsup
Also, what was your asset allocation (stock/bond mix) immediately before you got out of investing in August 2014?
Last edited by ruralavalon on Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

yamzusa
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by yamzusa » Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:19 pm

Nate79 wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:00 pm
Should you really be asking this question considering your track record so far of world's worst market timer?
I'm a real novice in investing. As I believe most people in this forum would be more experienced and knowledgeable than me, I might look stupid to some people. That is why I decided to join the forum and to learn how people are doing.

It's actually my wife who has such strong fear about losing money. Well, me too, but not as strong as her. :D But she also started learning investment from early this year, by reading books, news, and tracking markets, etc..and understands more about investing.

I'm not here to say my judgments and actions were right, but to learn investing as my hard-earned money is not growing. Hope this answered your question! :-)

yamzusa
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by yamzusa » Thu Mar 22, 2018 1:21 pm

ruralavalon wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:05 pm
Also, what was your asset allocation (stock/bond mix) immediately before you got out of investing in August 2014?
Hey, ruralavalon, I've added more information except the ones that I need to check.

Thank you!

yamzusa
Posts: 15
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by yamzusa » Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:00 pm

Sandtrap wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:09 am
What do you and spouse have in IRA, ROTH, 401k, etc?
How much in spouse's, and what funds?
How much in yours and what funds?
Do you have an emergency fund or cash reserves other than the $500k?
How much and where?
When do you expect to retire?

Can you edit your original post to include that?

mahalo,
j :D
Hello, Sandtrap,

I added more info in my original post.

Thank you for your great resources!

yamzusa
Posts: 15
Joined: Wed Mar 21, 2018 9:55 pm

Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by yamzusa » Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:05 pm

Beehave wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 9:59 am
Based on your concerns, here's what might work for you.

Take a thousand bucks. Invest it into the Vanguard STAR fund. Then contribute a fixed amount every month ($100, 200, ...500 or whatever) to the STAR fund until you have a $3000 balance. Then pick another of the balanced funds that has a stock-to-bond ratio that you like - - check out the various life strategy funds, the balanced fund, Wellington, Wellesley, tax managed balanced (but not for a retirement acc't) or leave the money in the STAR fund.

You will be dollar cost averaging into the market and bonds. If both bonds and stocks are going down you are buying at "bargain" rates. If they are going up, you have bought some at a bargain and what you are buying is at a bargain. If one asset class is rising and the other tanking, you are buying intelligently and rebalancing intelligently. Keep cash on-hand so that if there is a major downturn you can buy more at bargain.

My thought is that the auto-rebalancing of the funds and the "dry powder" reserve of cash to invest on downturns will give you the peace of mind required to stay the course for the future as you increase your stock and bond holdings and thus, in the long run, profit from your investments.

Your money should not make you miserable. You need to find an allocation strategy that helps you be at peace with your finances. You are not there now and will not be with an all-in position. You need to find a happy medium; and thus a balanced fund with some cash-on-hand seems to me to be the best bet for you.

My opinion,,, best wishes to you.
Hello, Beehave,
Thank you so much for sharing this idea. I will definitely check that in detail. Thank you!

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ruralavalon
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by ruralavalon » Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:43 pm

ychousa wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 1:21 pm
ruralavalon wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:05 pm
Also, what was your asset allocation (stock/bond mix) immediately before you got out of investing in August 2014?
Hey, ruralavalon, I've added more information except the ones that I need to check.

Thank you!
The new information will help us suggest ideas for you.

What is your wife's age?

Also -- How much is in your 401k? How much do you contribute annually to the 401k? Is there an employer match offered in your 401k, and if so what is it? What funds are you using in your 401k? What other funds are offered in your 401k? Please give fund names, tickers and expense ratios.

Again please simply add this to your original post.

It's usually important to coordinate investments among all of the accounts.

. . . . .

Here is an idea about the $250k from the CD which will mature 4/10, for a part of that money (about $24k-26k total). It is important to make use of available tax-advantaged accounts.

1) Immediately open 2 Roth IRAs at either Vanguard or Fidelity, one for yourself and one for your wife.

2) The maximum annual contribution to an IRA is $6.5k if age 50 or more, $5.5k if under age 50.

3) Promptly contribute $6.5k to your IRA and the maximum to your wife's IRA, for the tax year 2017. You can contribute for the tax year 2017 anytime before April 18, 2018. Do this right away when the CD matures, don't wait for the last minute.

4) Then again contribute the annual maximum to each IRA for the year 2018.

5) If at Vanguard you can temporarily invest both IRAs in Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth (VSMGX) ER 0.13% (asset allocation 60/40 stocks/bonds), until you work out an overall plan for all of your investments.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

MO MAN
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by MO MAN » Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:08 pm

I have been in the stock market since the early 80's when the dow was around 1,800 points. Its around 24,000 now. I have watched it crash and go up many times. But it always comes back and makes a new high. Put your money in and don't worry about it. :D

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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by ruralavalon » Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:37 am

What is the name of the Transamerica fund you are using in your 401k? That will be shown on your most recent statement.

What other Transamerica funds are offered in your 401k? In your 401k materials, or any website for your 401k, there will be a list of funds you can choose from. This should also give the ticker symbols and expense ratios.

. . . . .

Have you read the wiki articles on asset allocation which I referred to earlier, and given any thought to a desired asset allocation (stock bond mix) that you might want to aim for?

At ages 51 and 49, and planning to retirement in about 5 years, an asset allocation of about 60/40 stocks/bonds is what I would normally suggest. But you had a 60/40 asset allocation in August 2014 when you got out of the market, so something more conservative might be suitable for you, perhaps 50/50. Going to a much higher bond allocation is not really conservative, as it decreases the chances of successfully funding a long retirement.

Asset allocation is a very personal decision which you must make based on your own ability, willingness and need to take risk.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

John Laurens
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by John Laurens » Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:27 am

Op, you were either wrong in 2014 or wrong now (or both). Isn’t it exhausting trying to be right? Why not try allowing empirical academic research guide your decisions instead of your emotions.

Regards,
John

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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by yamzusa » Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:21 am

ruralavalon wrote:
Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:37 am
What is the name of the Transamerica fund you are using in your 401k? That will be shown on your most recent statement.

What other Transamerica funds are offered in your 401k? In your 401k materials, or any website for your 401k, there will be a list of funds you can choose from. This should also give the ticker symbols and expense ratios.

. . . . .

Have you read the wiki articles on asset allocation which I referred to earlier, and given any thought to a desired asset allocation (stock bond mix) that you might want to aim for?

At ages 51 and 49, and planning to retirement in about 5 years, an asset allocation of about 60/40 stocks/bonds is what I would normally suggest. But you had a 60/40 asset allocation in August 2014 when you got out of the market, so something more conservative might be suitable for you, perhaps 50/50. Going to a much higher bond allocation is not really conservative, as it decreases the chances of successfully funding a long retirement.

Asset allocation is a very personal decision which you must make based on your own ability, willingness and need to take risk.
Hi, ruralavalon, here are funds from Transamerica. I haven't had a chance to read it-I'm planning to read all articles over the weekend.

Current Transamerica fund: TA Vanguard Institutional Target Retirement 2030 Ret Opt

Here are offered funds:

Short Bonds/Stable/MMkt
Transamerica Stable Value Advantage Option $0.00 0%

Interm./Long-Term Bonds
Goldman Sachs Bond Ret Opt $0.00 0%
SSgA U.S. Bond Index Ret Opt $0.00 0%
DFA Infl-Protected Sec Portfolio Ret Opt $0.00 0%

Aggressive Bonds
Eaton Vance High Income Opportunities Ret Opt $0.00 0%
Large-Cap Stocks
T. Rowe Price Equity Income Ret Opt $0.00 0%
Columbia Contrarian Core $0.00 0%
Transamerica Partners Stock Index Ret Opt $0.00 0%
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Ret Opt $0.00 0%
Morgan Stanley Growth Ret Opt $0.00 0%

Small/Mid-Cap Stocks
SSgA S&P Mid Cap Index Ret Opt $0.00 0%
Eaton Vance Atlanta Cap SMID $0.00 0%
SSgA Russell Small Cap Index Ret Opt $0.00 0%
Voya Small Company Ret Opt $0.00 0%

International Stocks
American Century Global Growth Ret Opt $0.00 0%
SSgA International Index Ret Opt $0.00 0%
Transamerica Intl Equity Ret Opt $0.00 0%
DFA Emerging Mkts Core Equity $0.00 0%

Multi-Asset/Other
Principal Div Real Asset $0.00 0%
TA Vanguard Instl Trgt Re Inc $0.00 0%
TA Vanguard Instl Trg Re 2015 $0.00 0%
TA Vanguard Instl Trg Re 2020 $0.00 0%
TA Vanguard Instl Trg Re 2025 $0.00 0%
TA Vanguard Instl Trg Re 2030 $18,332.86 100%
TA Vanguard Instl Trg Re 2035 $0.00 0%
TA Vanguard Instl Trg Re 2040 $0.00 0%
TA Vanguard Instl Trg Re 2045 $0.00 0%
TA Vanguard Instl Trg Re 2050 $0.00 0%
TA Vanguard Instl Trg Re 2055 $0.00 0%
TA Vanguard Instl Trg Re 2060 $0.00 0%
TA Vanguard Instl Target Ret 2065 Ret Opt $0.00 0%

WhiteMaxima
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by WhiteMaxima » Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:40 am

Dollar cost averaging. Diversify your folio. Invest is a long term game. No need to be rush into the market. Waiting for good opportunity to come.

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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by yamzusa » Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:07 am

John Laurens wrote:
Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:27 am
Op, you were either wrong in 2014 or wrong now (or both). Isn’t it exhausting trying to be right? Why not try allowing empirical academic research guide your decisions instead of your emotions.

Regards,
John
Hi, John,
I understand your point. While I'm trying to find a better way to invest, my wife takes a firm stance from own experience and following reasons. (We always make big financial decisions with mutual agreement.) I welcome opinions from members.

1. We bought our condo in 2007. A few people had warned about real estate bubble but MOST said the market would keep rising. Then we had subprime mortgage crash and it took almost 10 years to recover the original value. Historic Dow curve shows a very similar pattern right before the crash of real estate market.

2. If someone bought an index fund in 2007, it must have taken 6 years to recover the original balance, meaning almost 6 years of little return from the investment.

3. Current PE ratio is as high as 25.

4. Lots of experts such as Alan Greenspan have warned about market bubble and correction.

5. Warren buffet's rule #1: Never lose money. But she thinks getting into the market now would likely lose money and may take long years (or decade) to recover original balance, meaning we may be getting returns less than CD (or almost none) for many years.

I know most folks here would oppose these ideas and some of them might ridicule them. But I welcome opinions as I believe there could be lots of people like us in the market. As this is an open forum to learn, I really want to be open and listen to others' opinions to share with my wife. I found just posting some mocking or bashing comment on a forum (just because someone has a different opinion) is not very helpful as that's not the purpose of open forums, I believe. My goal is to learn from experienced members. Thank you!
Last edited by yamzusa on Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:39 am, edited 1 time in total.

Afty
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by Afty » Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:31 am

One of the core Boglehead beliefs is that no one can predict what the market is going to do. The situation right now might be like 2007, or it might be like 2011. None of us know. So the best thing we can do is get a clear idea of the risks and rewards, develop an investment plan that we can tolerate through the ups and downs, and stick to it no matter what the market is doing or what people are saying.

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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by John Laurens » Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:54 am

ychousa wrote:
Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:07 am
John Laurens wrote:
Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:27 am
Op, you were either wrong in 2014 or wrong now (or both). Isn’t it exhausting trying to be right? Why not try allowing empirical academic research guide your decisions instead of your emotions.

Regards,
John
Hi, John,
I understand your point. While I'm trying to find a better way to invest, my wife takes a firm stance from own experience and following reasons. (We always make big financial decisions with mutual agreement.) I welcome opinions from members.

1. We bought our condo in 2007. A few people had warned about real estate bubble but MOST said the market would keep rising. Then we had subprime mortgage crash and it took almost 10 years to recover the original value. Historic Dow curve shows a very similar pattern right before the crash of real estate market.

2. If someone bought an index fund in 2007, it must have taken 6 years to recover the original balance, meaning almost 6 years of little return from the investment.

3. Current PE ratio is as high as 25.

4. Lots of experts such as Alan Greenspan have warned about market bubble and correction.

5. Warren buffet's rule #1: Never lose money. But she thinks getting into the market now would likely lose money and may take long years (or decade) to recover original balance, meaning we may be getting returns less than CD (or almost none) for many years.

I know most folks here would oppose these ideas and some of them might ridicule them. But I welcome opinions as I believe there could be lots of people like us in the market. As this is an open forum to learn, I really want to be open and listen to others' opinions to share with my wife. I found just posting some mocking or bashing comment on a forum (just because someone has a different opinion) is not very helpful as that's not the purpose of open forums, I believe. My goal is to learn from experienced members. Thank you!

Sorry, not bashing or mocking. I will be the first to admit I don’t know the price movement of an asset class in the short run, and I could be wrong about anything.

Were you trying to sell your condo during the 10 years your value was less than purchase price? If not, then the depreciation was meaningless. I would view my ownership in equities the same. If they depreciate from my original purchase price, it’s of no consequence to me. Along the way I collect and reinvest the dividends. Capital appreciation will occur (or not) with a long enough time horizon.

Regards,
John

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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by heyyou » Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:03 pm

Consider leaving all of your current money in your CDs, and investing all of your future savings in stock index mutual funds that are sure to fluctuate in value every day. You will have some stable priced savings that will only shrink by slow inflation, and some highly variably priced stock funds that will eventually do far better than inflation if you do not sell them for at least ten, maybe twenty years.

A financial writer named Bach suggested putting all stock fund purchases on automatic by using payroll deductions so the worker does not have to look at the prices. Many here have very comfortable retirements from doing just that in 401k accounts from the 1980s and 1990s. It is not about today's or tomorrow's prices, it is about 2030 prices deep in retirement.

Where are you moving for retirement?

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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by sharukh » Sat Mar 24, 2018 1:37 am

asif408 wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:40 am
ychousa wrote:
Wed Mar 21, 2018 10:22 pm
I don't want to buy equity unless there is a big correction (over 30% or more?)
Gene,

I have some great news for you! The stock markets in Russia, Turkey, Brazil, Poland, and Spain are all down over 30% since May 2011, while the US market has doubled: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/etf ... 2%3A955%7D

Any interest in buying these?
Wow.. very good perspective. thanks.

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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by ruralavalon » Sat Mar 24, 2018 9:29 am

Sorry for all questions :( , but I have been trying to work towards a possible plan for how to reinvest your money in a way that might suit you. Details are important, it's not possible to plan in the abstract.


Asset allocation.
You and your wife will need to decide on an asset allocation which you can be comfortable with long-term.

You had a 60/40 asset allocation before you exited investing in August 2014. I previously offered the idea of a 60/40 or 50/50 asset allocation, and suggested wiki articles to read. I see that you have been using Vanguard Institutional Target Retirement 2030 in your 401k. Have you been satisfied with the performance and volatility (risk level) of that fund and account? That fund has an asset allocation of about 70/30 stocks/bonds.

Have you given any more thought to what you might want for an asset allocation? This is the first decision you and your wife need to make. I fully agree that this needs to be a joint decision.


Lump sum or in stages? Market timing?
I sense great anxiety over restarting your investing, you want to wait for a big drop in the market even though you realize market timing is a bad idea, and even though you realize that it was a mistake to exit the market in August 2014.

There has been a lot of discussion here about how to invest large sums of money, whether all at once or in stages. I am in the "all at once" camp. Historically investing the lump sum all at once has worked out better about 2/3 of the time. You could Google a Vanguard paper on the subject "Dollar-Cost Averaging Just Means Taking Your Risk Later". Of course it's not possible to know in advance whether now might fall in the other 1/3.

A compromise solution is to invest a part of the $250k from the CD which matures 4/10/18 in a lump right away, and the rest in stages, for example -- 50% now in a lump sum, then another 5% each month for the next 10 months.

Then repeat the same process next year using the other $250k from CD which matures April 2019.

This can get you reinvested in stages, over the next two years, in a way that could reduce the anxiety you feel.



Tax-advantaged accounts.
As mentioned before it is important to make use of any tax-advantaged accounts you have available.

I previously suggested creating two Roth IRAs, and using some of the cash from the CD which matures 4/10 to contribute $13k to his Roth IRA and to contribute $11k to her Roth IRA.

In addition (if the expense ratios charged in your 401k are decent) it would be a good idea to increase your contributions to your 401k to the annual maximum of $18.5k, and you could use some of the money from the maturing CD to pay living expenses you might otherwise have covered with your paycheck. This in effect of transfers money from the CD to the 401k.

This also has the effect of slowly moving some money from the CD into investing in stages, which should reduce the anxiety of restarting your investments.

About how much (in dollars)have you contributed to your 401k so far this year? About how much (in dollars) would your 1% planned contribution have amounted to for this year?

Expense ratios are a primary factor in selecting funds to use. Can you please give the expense ratios charged in your 401k for these funds?
1) Transamerica Partners Stock Index Ret. Option;
2) Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Ret. Option;
3) SSgA International Index Ret. Option;
4) SSgA U.S. Bond Ret. Option; and
5) Vanguard Institutional Target Retirement 2030.

Also are there any additional fees charged for using those funds?


Taxable accounts.
For stock investments you could open a taxable account at a low cost provider like Vanguard, and invest in very tax-efficient stock index funds. Examples would include:
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares ((VTSAX) ER 0.04%; and
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTIAX) ER 0.11%

For fixed income (instead of bonds, or a bond fund) you could reinvest some of the money from the maturing CDs in new CDs.
Last edited by ruralavalon on Sat Mar 24, 2018 10:04 am, edited 2 times in total.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

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Toons
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by Toons » Sat Mar 24, 2018 9:59 am

How?
Purchase Equity Index Fund ASAP,
Keep purchasing.
For decades.
I purchased when the Dow was "high" at
887
1500
3000
4000
7000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
22000
25000,,,,,,
You get the picture? :mrgreen:
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by Lafder » Sat Mar 24, 2018 10:33 am

Welcome here!

Since you have been sitting out of the market in cash for a number of years now, I can see why you are worried about putting it back into the market since there is a chance there will be a significant drop the day after you invest, or the week or month or year after. That chance of a drop will always be the case and it will be painful when there is a drop.

Can you max your 401k as well as do Roths for you and your spouse? Those are tax advantaged ways to save. I am not sure if your plan to retire out of the US might be an argument against doing this. But others on this forum will know.

Have you considered paying off your mortgage with your cash? That is a way to get a guaranteed over 5% return. And then it frees up the equivalent of the monthly mortgage payment that you can invest on a monthly basis.

I believe that the market will on average go up, or I would not invest. You thought the market was at a high when you pulled your money out, and that proved to be wrong. There WILL be a market drop. There is just no way to know when, or how big it will be , or how long it will take to come back.

Some people are too anxious about their money going down in value to invest in the stock market, and that might be you and your wife. Paying the mortgage will get you several 100% better returns than the CDs. Yes the house may go down in value, but you that is the case with a mortgage or not.

peace
lafder

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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by pkcrafter » Sat Mar 24, 2018 11:19 am

yamzusa, I'm going to offer some very different views based on your risk tolerance, current assets, and time to needing the money.

Here is a problem I see - you want to retire in 5 years, so you have to be concerned about "bad sequence of return" risk since you don't have any room for significant losses.

https://www.kitces.com/blog/understandi ... d-decades/

You have to be concerned with this since you have 500k and want income of 24k/year. 24k a year is a 4.8% withdrawal rate, which is slightly higher than the the recommended 4% so called "safe withdrawal rate." What this means is you do not have much ability to take higher risk, even though you have some need. You also do not have willingness to take much risk. One thing is clear, you cannot move out and in the market every time you feel uncomfortable because it will guarantee you will run out of money. Take some time, and together with your wife, learn more. Then write down your plan (an investment policy statement) and don't deviate any more.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investm ... _statement

So, when looking at the big picture and considering everything, you might consider an asset allocation of minimum 30% equity and 40% max. You have to have some money in equity to keep up with inflation. In addition, you might hold some inflation-protected securities (bonds).

Possible fund choices include Vanguard Target Retirement Income (30% stock), or Vanguard Lifestrategy Income, 40% equity. The TR fund holds some inflation-protected bonds. On the positive side, your savings rate of $1500/month is excellent.

Will you and/or wife get social security?
Allocation rate when I pulled my money from WellFargo advisors account:
60/40 (Stock/Bond).
Do NOT use Wells Fargo, or any bank, for any investments, very expensive.
TA Vanguard Instl Trg Re 2030 $18,332.86 100%
Are you aware that this fund is 70% stock??

Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.

wrongfunds
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by wrongfunds » Sat Mar 24, 2018 1:50 pm

I heard that equities have crashed. Were equities high when you opened this topic?

dogagility
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by dogagility » Sat Mar 24, 2018 2:44 pm

With seemingly low risk tolerance, my first suggestion would be to pay off your 200K mortgage. This would be a guaranteed 5.XX% return.
Taking "risk" since 1995.

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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by yamzusa » Mon Mar 26, 2018 12:27 am

ruralavalon wrote:
Sat Mar 24, 2018 9:29 am
Sorry for all questions :( , but I have been trying to work towards a possible plan for how to reinvest your money in a way that might suit you.
Hello, ruralavalon, thank you so much for your detailed advice and your kindness to help me. These are great suggestions and we will definitely discuss this to come up with our plans. I will check more detail about Expense ration of TA fund and will respond.

Lafder wrote:
Sat Mar 24, 2018 10:33 am
Can you max your 401k as well as do Roths for you and your spouse? Those are tax advantaged ways to save. I am not sure if your plan to retire out of the US might be an argument against doing this. But others on this forum will know.

Have you considered paying off your mortgage with your cash? That is a way to get a guaranteed over 5% return. And then it frees up the equivalent of the monthly mortgage payment that you can invest on a monthly basis.
Hello, Lafder,
Appreciate your suggestions.
1% match from company is a max, and I think I've maxed the contribution. We will consider IRA after we get the matured CD.

For our home, we will research refinance at this point.

pkcrafter wrote:
Sat Mar 24, 2018 11:19 am
yamzusa, I'm going to offer some very different views based on your risk tolerance, current assets, and time to needing the money.

Possible fund choices include Vanguard Target Retirement Income (30% stock), or Vanguard Lifestrategy Income, 40% equity. The TR fund holds some inflation-protected bonds. On the positive side, your savings rate of $1500/month is excellent.

Will you and/or wife get social security?

Paul
Hello, Paul,
Thank you for your comment.

Yes, we get SS at 67.

Goal33
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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by Goal33 » Mon Mar 26, 2018 12:35 am

To me it’s obvious that you should just use the upcoming CD to pay off your house at the very least since you’re afraid of investing.
A man with one watch always knows what time it is; a man with two watches is never sure.

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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by cfs » Mon Mar 26, 2018 1:16 am

You followed the nervous nellies leaving the market in 2014 and your attitude towards the market remains the same, plus you did not refinance when mortgages were in the 3s, based on all the information provided I concur with forum members' recommendations of paying the mortgage as soon as the matured cd money becomes available. Good luck y gracias por leer / cfs
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by JBTX » Mon Mar 26, 2018 3:50 am

dogagility wrote:
Sat Mar 24, 2018 2:44 pm
With seemingly low risk tolerance, my first suggestion would be to pay off your 200K mortgage. This would be a guaranteed 5.XX% return.
I’d agree with this. With only 5 years until retirement, a strong risk aversion, and generally high relative market valuations I don’t think anything close to a typical asset allocation will be appropriate for him. After paying off mortgage, I’d say max out retirement options and put it in a very conservative target date or life strategy fund.

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Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by yamzusa » Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:32 am

Lafder wrote:
Sat Mar 24, 2018 10:33 am

Have you considered paying off your mortgage with your cash? That is a way to get a guaranteed over 5% return. And then it frees up the equivalent of the monthly mortgage payment that you can invest on a monthly basis.

peace
lafder
Including Lafder, several people have suggested to pay off my home mortgage-I have about 136K left for 19 more years.

Please bear with me if I don't have clear understanding on this-

If I pay off this 136K, I can save 5.125% annual interest, which is about $78,195 in total for the remaining years, according to the amortization schedule.

But if I invest this amount and get ~4% return for the next 19 years with compounding effect, I would have ~286K in 2037.

As I want to get into the market again (hopefully in the near future,) it seems better to me to have this lump sum money to be invested, rather than paying off mortgage.

I may choose to send additional $200~$300 to my mortgage payment, and have this lump sum money invested, as refinancing is a bit hard in my situation.

Please share your thoughts if I'm missing something here.

Thank you!

wrongfunds
Posts: 1798
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2010 3:55 pm

Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Post by wrongfunds » Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:14 pm

Market is crashing! Ask yourself the question "should I invest in this crashing market?" What would be your honest answer?

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