Still waiting to invest?

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livesoft
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Still waiting to invest?

Post by livesoft » Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:06 am

There have been lots of posts in the past few months from folks asking "Invest Now or Wait?"

For those that decided to wait, I am wondering if they are going to continue to wait?

Is it possible to have some personal testimonials at this point in time?
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climber2020
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by climber2020 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:37 am

I'm still waiting to hear back from this person:

Retreat to cash

genefl
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by genefl » Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:54 am

I have been dollar cost averaging over the past year with monthly set contributions. In hindsight, would have been better to lump sum invest.

I have larger purchases allocated for 5, 10 and 15% corrections. We have crossed the 5% threshold and I put my order in today!

blackburnian
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by blackburnian » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:00 am

I had a recent infusion of cash that I have been planning to invest, so will do so today if the drop continues.

livesoft
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by livesoft » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:01 am

elrobin wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:00 am
I had a recent infusion of cash that I have been planning to invest, so will do so today if the drop continues.
And if the drop does not continue? :twisted:
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blackburnian
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by blackburnian » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:03 am

Good question; not sure. I did try to buy yesterday but couldn't get into the website.

BlackStrat
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by BlackStrat » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:30 am

We just opened up our teenage son's first Roth IRA - I'm expecting the funds to transfer and settle today. Not that it matters with his nearly 50-year time horizon, but I'm hoping we're catching the bottom just to get him excited about earnings. If we're catching the falling knife, so be it; things will recover.

KATNYC
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by KATNYC » Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:13 am

Nothing has changed for us. We invest automatically every payday into 401K & ROTH (Vanguard).
We added HSA direct deposits last month which requires a transfer to TDAM to invest.

PDX_Traveler
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by PDX_Traveler » Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:24 am

We're back at what - only early Dec. levels on the S&P500? If someone (many ones, I think?) felt things were already overheated then, no reason to jump in now, it would seem.
Personal testimonial: Already have significant exposure to domestic&intl. stocks, and as much exposure to bonds as desired, sitting with a little higher than normal cash levels waiting for the 'fat lady' to sing (or at least warm up).

Finridge
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by Finridge » Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:41 am

I expect this is the downturn people who keep "dry powder" for were waiting for.

But if that "dry powder" is more than two months hold they'd still be losing gains they would have realized if they had invested earlier. At least at current prices.

macman_65
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by macman_65 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:38 pm

I just increased my 401k contribution by 6K to get the 50+ catch up.

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Toons
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by Toons » Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:41 pm

Invest all the money you can today ,now.
Right After You Read THIS
Put the compounding machine to work..
The market will be up four fold thirty years from now.
You don't want to miss out.
You need some gold in the golden years :mrgreen:
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

Marjimmy
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by Marjimmy » Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:47 pm

climber2020 wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:37 am
I'm still waiting to hear back from this person:

Retreat to cash
Lmaooo +1
Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking. -Marcus Aurelius

an_asker
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by an_asker » Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:51 pm

climber2020 wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:37 am
I'm still waiting to hear back from this person:

Retreat to cash
Would've saved me some time if you had added the following from that thread :oops:
Well, let's see what happens. Unconvinced by the feedback here, I've decided to get out of the market for a while.

....

For those of you that want the opportunity to say “I told you so.”, today’s market indexes at the time I placed the orders:

Dow: 19,900
S&P: 2260
NAS: 5441
VTI: 116.34

WhiteMaxima
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by WhiteMaxima » Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:01 pm

No need to wait. You can start put 20% down and the doing monthly or quartly DCA.

Paradise
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by Paradise » Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:14 pm

As someone who has tried every investing tactic known to man, if you are "waiting to invest," you are doing it wrong.

Image

Please review this image. Where would you have invested if you are waiting? Probably, like most, you would have invested too early. Or, you could have waited and waited and it finally hit rock bottom, and you waited some more... and then you kept telling yourself "it will go back down.. I need to wait some more." And that is exactly the problem. You are trying to time the market. It's not possible despite what candlestick gurus might lead you to believe. Investing isn't about getting the best possible deal. It's about putting your money to work for you over a long period of time.

Now look again at the chart and notice even if you were at 14k when you bought in, you'd still be at 25k today. 78.5% gains over 10 years is still fantastic.

You know what the worst investment is? Cash. Every day that you hold onto cash that you do not need to live your life, you are losing to inflation. There's a good chance that you can temporarily be down a lot of money tomorrow. If that scares you, investing is not for you.

livesoft
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by livesoft » Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:05 pm

I see reports that there has been a bona fide Correction. That's what everyone was waiting for, right?
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market timer
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by market timer » Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:13 pm

With 0% equities, I have plenty of dry powder, but have not yet used any of it. Stocks are simply not attractively priced, and this could get much uglier. I expect rising rates and Fed balance sheet normalization will be a headwind for the medium term, and deficits/inflation to be a headwind in the longer term. If we recover quickly from here, that's fine with me as well.

DrGoogle2017
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by DrGoogle2017 » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:06 pm

I had almost 0% in equities(in 2009) except for some small Roth IRA accounts. I’ve been DCA because I don’t want to wait and missed the bottom like in 2009. My husband said to wait, Cramer said the bottom was around 4000, it was 6000, and we didn’t get back in until late of Oct 2009. I now just DCA. Nibbling bit by bit. If it drops another 20-30%, I will mortgage my house, oh wait it’s already mortgaged, I mean I will deploy more aggressively, right now, I’m just happy to get back to my AA in stocks.
Last edited by DrGoogle2017 on Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:11 am, edited 1 time in total.

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whodidntante
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by whodidntante » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:10 pm

DrGoogle2017 wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:06 pm
I had almost 0% in equities except for some small Roth IRA accounts. I’ve been DCA because I don’t want to wait and missed the bottom like in 2009. My husband said to wait, Cramer said the bottom was around 4000, it was 6000, and we didn’t get back in until late of Oct 2009. I now just DCA. Nibbling bit by bit. If it drops another 20-30%, I will mortgage my house, oh wait it’s already mortgaged, I mean I will deploy more aggressively, right now, I’m just happy to get back to my AA in stocks.
You can hear anything you want to hear out of Cramer. He's a master of playing all sides, but is somehow very confident about it.

Grt2bOutdoors
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:18 pm

whodidntante wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:10 pm
DrGoogle2017 wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:06 pm
I had almost 0% in equities except for some small Roth IRA accounts. I’ve been DCA because I don’t want to wait and missed the bottom like in 2009. My husband said to wait, Cramer said the bottom was around 4000, it was 6000, and we didn’t get back in until late of Oct 2009. I now just DCA. Nibbling bit by bit. If it drops another 20-30%, I will mortgage my house, oh wait it’s already mortgaged, I mean I will deploy more aggressively, right now, I’m just happy to get back to my AA in stocks.
You can hear anything you want to hear out of Cramer. He's a master of playing all sides, but is somehow very confident about it.
Saw him on this mornings Sqawk Box and true to form he was squawking though honestly his talking was quite muddled with little of anything understandable being talked about there (more like blabbering).
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

anoop
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by anoop » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:22 pm

Have been ~0% equities since Feb 2008. I feel like a fool. :(

I bought some INTC for fun and that has done well. :)

For now, I'm planning to wait it out with my 401k. I'll probably do a lot better this year with rates moving up.

To me everything looks overvalued -- bonds, stocks, real estate. I have a house and my job and total compensation depend to a large part on the economy. So I have a lot of indirect exposure that way.

I have had to work at dealing with FOMO, but I'm mostly over it.

I think the current correction is a tiny blip. Once repatriation of foreign assets begins, it will be onward and upward. And then there's infrastructure stimulus.

What is a tiny bit bothersome are the violent moves. But I think central banks will bring it under control one way or another.

inbox788
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by inbox788 » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:32 pm

I don't usually keep "dry powder", but I've been doing some slow rebalancing (aka market timing) and have cash from sale sitting in cash since last year. I finally put some if it to work last Nov/Dec (about a third) and bought a little on Monday (about a quarter of remaining), so about half deployed. I'm holding out a little more before I deploy the rest.

Still in the grand scheme of things, it's only a few percentage of the total portfolio and won't make a big difference overall.

3funder
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by 3funder » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:32 pm

My wife and are a little heavy on cash reserves, so I figured I'd put some to work by investing $3,000 in VGTSX. In my view, international stocks are more attractively priced. When the other shoe drops (and it will, it's just a matter of when), I'll invest an equal amount in VTSMX.

This is for my taxable account. My 403(b) is US stocks, international stocks, and US bonds; my Roth IRA is US stocks and international stocks.

youngpleb
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by youngpleb » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:37 pm

I guess you could technically say I'm waiting, since I don't get paid for another week and my tax returns aren't here to be put to good use yet. :mrgreen: 100% stocks for me since I'm 26 and don't mind the volatility.
27. Always learning.

PDX_Traveler
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by PDX_Traveler » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:44 pm

anoop wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:22 pm
Have been ~0% equities since Feb 2008. I feel like a fool. :(

I bought some INTC for fun and that has done well. :)

For now, I'm planning to wait it out with my 401k. I'll probably do a lot better this year with rates moving up.

To me everything looks overvalued -- bonds, stocks, real estate. I have a house and my job and total compensation depend to a large part on the economy. So I have a lot of indirect exposure that way.

I have had to work at dealing with FOMO, but I'm mostly over it.

I think the current correction is a tiny blip. Once repatriation of foreign assets begins, it will be onward and upward. And then there's infrastructure stimulus.

What is a tiny bit bothersome are the violent moves. But I think central banks will bring it under control one way or another.
:?: :?:
You think it'll be 'onward and upward' and believe in the 'stimulus' to do good things. Yet, you also think everything is overvalued, and you are sitting it out. What is this, a spectator sport?? :happy

ThePrince
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by ThePrince » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:51 pm

Paradise wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:14 pm
As someone who has tried every investing tactic known to man, if you are "waiting to invest," you are doing it wrong.

Image

Please review this image. Where would you have invested if you are waiting? Probably, like most, you would have invested too early. Or, you could have waited and waited and it finally hit rock bottom, and you waited some more... and then you kept telling yourself "it will go back down.. I need to wait some more." And that is exactly the problem. You are trying to time the market. It's not possible despite what candlestick gurus might lead you to believe. Investing isn't about getting the best possible deal. It's about putting your money to work for you over a long period of time.

Now look again at the chart and notice even if you were at 14k when you bought in, you'd still be at 25k today. 78.5% gains over 10 years is still fantastic.

You know what the worst investment is? Cash. Every day that you hold onto cash that you do not need to live your life, you are losing to inflation. There's a good chance that you can temporarily be down a lot of money tomorrow. If that scares you, investing is not for you.
+1

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digarei
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by digarei » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:51 pm

anoop wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:22 pm
Have been ~0% equities since Feb 2008. I feel like a fool. :(

I bought some INTC for fun and that has done well. :)

For now, I'm planning to wait it out with my 401k. I'll probably do a lot better this year with rates moving up.

To me everything looks overvalued -- bonds, stocks, real estate. I have a house and my job and total compensation depend to a large part on the economy. So I have a lot of indirect exposure that way.

I have had to work at dealing with FOMO, but I'm mostly over it.

I think the current correction is a tiny blip. Once repatriation of foreign assets begins, it will be onward and upward. And then there's infrastructure stimulus.

What is a tiny bit bothersome are the violent moves. But I think central banks will bring it under control one way or another.
If you can retire by buying a single stock (INTC) which seems to have had a so-so run until the recent uptick—note that it gave that all up today along with many other stocks—then more power to you.

You’ve been out of the market for 10 years. No reason to feel like a fool. You’ve made a choice and stuck by it.

I hope the compensation and job hold up for you!
Connect with Bogleheads in Northern California! Click the link under my user info/avatar.

anoop
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by anoop » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:01 pm

PDX_Traveler wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:44 pm
:?: :?:
You think it'll be 'onward and upward' and believe in the 'stimulus' to do good things. Yet, you also think everything is overvalued, and you are sitting it out. What is this, a spectator sport?? :happy
It's a lot easier to watch it from the sidelines for sure. :)

I saw a lot of crazy stuff in early 2004 which make me back out of buying a house. Prices kept going up for the next 2 years and the house peaked at 50% higher than what I would have paid. I bought in 2015. At the market bottom, there were no houses being built and existing homes were going for all cash in 24 hours. Being a lifelong renter, there's no way I could move that fast (not even being able to see the house before buying).

I think things will fall, and badly, at some point. I just don't know when. And I'm not willing to risk my life's savings in that. I think central banks will help it recover (they always do, just like they did with the housing bust), but I don't know that I have the stomach to participate in the game.

Next time there's a crisis, I will get in, in a small way. If there is no crisis, I will stay out and watch everyone else have fun. And like I mentioned, I am indirectly in the market just by virtue of my job/compensation and owning a house. That is good enough for me. That's how I deal with my FOMO.
Last edited by anoop on Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.

PDX_Traveler
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by PDX_Traveler » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:05 pm

anoop wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:01 pm
PDX_Traveler wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:44 pm
:?: :?:
You think it'll be 'onward and upward' and believe in the 'stimulus' to do good things. Yet, you also think everything is overvalued, and you are sitting it out. What is this, a spectator sport?? :happy
It's a lot easier to watch it from the sidelines for sure. :)

I saw a lot of crazy stuff in early 2004 which make me back out of buying a house. Prices kept going up for the next 2 years and the house peaked at 50% higher than what I would have paid.

I think things will fall, and badly, at some point. I just don't know when. And I'm not willing to risk my life's savings in that. I think central banks will help it recover (they always do, just like they did with the housing bust), but I don't know that I have the stomach to participate in the game.

Next time there's a crisis, I will get in, in a small way. If there is no crisis, I will stay out and watch everyone else have fun. And like I mentioned, I am indirectly in the market just by virtue of my job/compensation and owning a house. That is good enough for me. That's how I deal with my FOMO.
Seriously, though - just hanging out in this forum and reading about other folks' perspectives will potentially help you *a lot*. Never close your eyes and ears - and be willing to change and experiment. Driving while looking in the rear-view mirror and all that... Good luck

anoop
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by anoop » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:12 pm

digarei wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:51 pm
If you can retire by buying a single stock (INTC) which seems to have had a so-so run until the recent uptick—note that it gave that all up today along with many other stocks—then more power to you.

You’ve been out of the market for 10 years. No reason to feel like a fool. You’ve made a choice and stuck by it.

I hope the compensation and job hold up for you!
My INTC position is really just for fun. It was the only stock I thought was fairly valued in the DOW at the time that I bought it. And I have not added to it other than dividend reinvestment.

software
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by software » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:17 pm

market timer wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:13 pm
With 0% equities, I have plenty of dry powder, but have not yet used any of it. Stocks are simply not attractively priced, and this could get much uglier. I expect rising rates and Fed balance sheet normalization will be a headwind for the medium term, and deficits/inflation to be a headwind in the longer term. If we recover quickly from here, that's fine with me as well.
Well atleast your name does not belie your intentions...

TropikThunder
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by TropikThunder » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:28 pm

livesoft wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:05 pm
I see reports that there has been a bona fide Correction. That's what everyone was waiting for, right?
And some will STILL not buy. Just as a quick example, I found this nice thread almost exactly 2 years ago as the S&P500 began 2016 with a ~8% drop but never quite reached textbook "correction" territory (Jan 6, 2016):
viewtopic.php?t=181313

Some of my favorite quotes:
Opportunity,Opportunity,Opportunity
:sharebeer
Not Yet, Not Yet, Not Yet :annoyed
I suspect, one way or another, we're in for a few disappointing years in broad equity markets
I am inclined to agree.
I am sticking with the basics, and will re-evaluate in the 1600-1700 range on the S & P 500.
Will buy as soon as I see an 18 as the first two S&P numbers.
So did you buy today?
No, but I might buy some tomorrow. I don't believe in calling tops or bottoms but I am far from sure the drop is exhausted.
It's another day and the answer is now yes. Now we have an exercise in patience to see if we can see an established bottom of a 17 handle is the next number.
The low point during this period was 1833 on 02-12-2016. Not sure if that poster ever bought.

So if you were waiting for a 10% correction, and weren't able to pull the trigger in early 2016, here's your correction! :beer
Just know that this correction only reduces the S&P500 gain from two years ago from +46% to +36%. Well played ......

TropikThunder
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by TropikThunder » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:34 pm

anoop wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:01 pm
PDX_Traveler wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:44 pm
:?: :?:
You think it'll be 'onward and upward' and believe in the 'stimulus' to do good things. Yet, you also think everything is overvalued, and you are sitting it out. What is this, a spectator sport?? :happy
I think things will fall, and badly, at some point. I just don't know when. And I'm not willing to risk my life's savings in that. I think central banks will help it recover (they always do, just like they did with the housing bust), but I don't know that I have the stomach to participate in the game.

Next time there's a crisis, I will get in, in a small way. If there is no crisis, I will stay out and watch everyone else have fun. And like I mentioned, I am indirectly in the market just by virtue of my job/compensation and owning a house. That is good enough for me. That's how I deal with my FOMO.
market timer wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:13 pm
With 0% equities, I have plenty of dry powder, but have not yet used any of it. Stocks are simply not attractively priced, and this could get much uglier. I expect rising rates and Fed balance sheet normalization will be a headwind for the medium term, and deficits/inflation to be a headwind in the longer term. If we recover quickly from here, that's fine with me as well.
And yet even if the S&P500 declines by 45%, it will still be higher than it was 2 years ago.

anoop
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by anoop » Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:21 pm

^ That is one of the reasons why I feel like a fool. But that is not a reason to jump in now when market valuations are super high (and even our former fed chairs think so too).

rixer
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by rixer » Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:39 am

I'm retired and everything is in Lifestrategy CG. I don't have any dry powder to invest except for my three years minimum expenses CD's I hold for an extreme downturn. I won't gamble those CD's by buying more equities but I've thought about it.

minimalistmarc
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by minimalistmarc » Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:48 am

market timer wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:13 pm
With 0% equities, I have plenty of dry powder, but have not yet used any of it. Stocks are simply not attractively priced, and this could get much uglier. I expect rising rates and Fed balance sheet normalization will be a headwind for the medium term, and deficits/inflation to be a headwind in the longer term. If we recover quickly from here, that's fine with me as well.
Why is it fine with you if we recover quickly if you are zero stocks?

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market timer
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by market timer » Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:19 am

minimalistmarc wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:48 am
market timer wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:13 pm
With 0% equities, I have plenty of dry powder, but have not yet used any of it. Stocks are simply not attractively priced, and this could get much uglier. I expect rising rates and Fed balance sheet normalization will be a headwind for the medium term, and deficits/inflation to be a headwind in the longer term. If we recover quickly from here, that's fine with me as well.
Why is it fine with you if we recover quickly if you are zero stocks?
Because I have enough already. Also, if stocks stay high, it means I'll probably continue earning a healthy income and have job security.

minimalistmarc
Posts: 256
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by minimalistmarc » Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:38 am

market timer wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:19 am
minimalistmarc wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:48 am
market timer wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:13 pm
With 0% equities, I have plenty of dry powder, but have not yet used any of it. Stocks are simply not attractively priced, and this could get much uglier. I expect rising rates and Fed balance sheet normalization will be a headwind for the medium term, and deficits/inflation to be a headwind in the longer term. If we recover quickly from here, that's fine with me as well.
Why is it fine with you if we recover quickly if you are zero stocks?
Because I have enough already. Also, if stocks stay high, it means I'll probably continue earning a healthy income and have job security.
Then why are you interested in stocks at all?

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market timer
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by market timer » Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:02 am

minimalistmarc wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:38 am
Then why are you interested in stocks at all?
Studied financial markets in grad school and had a career on Wall Street. Once you spend all day staring at a Bloomberg screen for years, it is hard to kick the habit of checking the market regularly.

LivinIt
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by LivinIt » Fri Feb 09, 2018 4:12 pm

Finridge wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:41 am
I expect this is the downturn people who keep "dry powder" for were waiting for.

But if that "dry powder" is more than two months hold they'd still be losing gains they would have realized if they had invested earlier. At least at current prices.
I'm rapidly coming to understand this market timing thing. A couple times over the past few years I've changed my AA 5% toward bonds/cash so that I could have 'dry powder' to buy back into equities on the next big drop. If one tranche of that is 2.5 years old, the drop would have to be 33% to break even, rather more to present any meaningful opportunity to come out ahead.

I might try to make a chart of the S&P 500 annotating market drops since 1970 in terms of months, rather than percent. As in: From 1/29/2018 - 2/9/2018 the S&P dropped four months in value (taking it back to the level of 10/9/2017).

I cashed out 100% on 1/29 (rollover) and am 73% purchased back in with my new AA as of this afternoon. I have locked in about a 7% win, the last quarter of my funds will be worse, or better, next week - but I'll be out of cash before we return to S&P=2800.

TropikThunder
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by TropikThunder » Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:05 pm

LivinIt wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 4:12 pm
I might try to make a chart of the S&P 500 annotating market drops since 1970 in terms of months, rather than percent. As in: From 1/29/2018 - 2/9/2018 the S&P dropped four months in value (taking it back to the level of 10/9/2017).
That should be an interesting exercise. We see so many posts of people holding off and waiting for a drop, followed by "what if the market goes up 20% while you're waiting for a 5% drop". This could be another method to illustrate why waiting doesn't work.

livesoft
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by livesoft » Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:11 pm

^There was a tool on vanguard.com that showed exactly that. I don't know if it is still there or not.
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aj76er
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by aj76er » Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:49 pm

anoop wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:01 pm
And like I mentioned, I am indirectly in the market just by virtue of my job/compensation and owning a house. That is good enough for me. That's how I deal with my FOMO.
I view my sole income, from a single company, and from expending my own effort and time to be the riskiest asset of all. To paraphrase an oft cited quote: "my money can work a lot harder than I can".

One thing I've done is to structure my living expenses to be within the divided yield of an equivalent 100% stock portfolio. I'm still 70/25/5 but have considered going closer to 90/10. If a very large correction occurs, it would be tempting. But I don't see that happening in the foreseeable future.
"Buy-and-hold, long-term, all-market-index strategies, implemented at rock-bottom cost, are the surest of all routes to the accumulation of wealth" - John C. Bogle

mega317
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by mega317 » Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:02 am

aj76er wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:49 pm
One thing I've done is to structure my living expenses to be within the divided yield of an equivalent 100% stock portfolio
Why? Can you explain this more?

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randomizer
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by randomizer » Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:14 am

Waiting is a fool's game.
87.5:12.5, EM tilt — HODL the course!

itstoomuch
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by itstoomuch » Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:29 am

Yep, Sorta. Earlier this week I bought in after Monday's drop.
Still 50% cash in primary Discretionary.
The current volatility partially indicates that the valuations are pretty high. And some of what I had, were near their highs.
I am negative 1-2% YTD, across my Discretionary accounts.
Retired. So I got to be careful not to lose this.
Planning on a trip to China and Japan with my sister in March-April. I need a wad of cash anyway :annoyed
Rev012718; 4 Incm stream buckets: SS+pension; dfr'd GLWB VA & FI anntys, by time & $$ laddered; Discretionary; Rentals. LTCi. Own, not asset. Tax TBT%. Early SS. FundRatio (FR) >1.1 67/70yo

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aj76er
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Re: Still waiting to invest?

Post by aj76er » Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:50 pm

mega317 wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:02 am
aj76er wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:49 pm
One thing I've done is to structure my living expenses to be within the divided yield of an equivalent 100% stock portfolio
Why? Can you explain this more?
For the past few years, I've really been striving for financial independence (and possibly retirement) at a young-ish age. If you read the blogs of FIRE folks, a common theme is to go 100% stocks while maintaining a very frugal lifestyle that can be funded within a very low (perpetual) withdrawal rate. For such a long retirement horizon (~50 or 60 yrs), one needs a high stock allocation with super low WR in order to still have inflation adjusted growth throughout retirement. See articles at www.earlyretirementnow.com if you'd like to read further.
"Buy-and-hold, long-term, all-market-index strategies, implemented at rock-bottom cost, are the surest of all routes to the accumulation of wealth" - John C. Bogle

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