Is VTIVX safe?

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SirBogle
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Is VTIVX safe?

Post by SirBogle »

I am pretty new at "investing" and I have put a substantial amount on VTIVX (Target Retirement 2045), and I have already lost probably 15% - 20% of what I have put in.

I will admit it is highly stressful, and I have thought of selling, but I do know the buy and hold mantra that is preached here.

But I have heard that we are headed into a major crash, and our economy will be hit with a major Depression.

I mean is it going to get much worse? I wonder if it is better to sell and pull out the 85% I have left rather than lose it all.

Advice?
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simplesimon
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Post by simplesimon »

It won't go to 0.

The thing to understand is that this fund of funds is not like a stock. The fund holds almost the entire world in stocks (thousands and thousands of them) and also holds a diversified mix of bonds.
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SirBogle
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Post by SirBogle »

So it only goes up and down based on how the world markets move? And with the world markets in a freefall lately the price has dropped proportionally with its diversified positions?

So would you guys suggest putting more into VTIVX to average down?

I am just worried that the markets will totally crash and the economy won't go anywhere for years, or decades. Although Money Markets don't seem safe either.
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simplesimon
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Post by simplesimon »

What's your alternative?
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PiperWarrior
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Post by PiperWarrior »

SirBogle wrote:So it only goes up and down based on how the world markets move?
Yes. After all, the components of Vanguard Target Retirement 2045 (VTIVX) are all index funds.
SirBogle wrote:And with the world markets in a freefall lately the price has dropped proportionally with its diversified positions?
Yes.
SirBogle wrote:So would you guys suggest putting more into VTIVX to average down?
Sure, if you have cash available, and the fund is in a tax-advantaged account.
SirBogle wrote:I am just worried that the markets will totally crash and the economy won't go anywhere for years, or decades. Although Money Markets don't seem safe either.
I cannot tell you which way the market will go in the future. FWIW, if Vanguard Target Retirement 2045 existed in the past with exactly the same allocation, you would have had years like:

1973 -15.55%
1974 -23.33%

2000 -9.35%
2001 -10.76%
2002 -17.05%

If the recent downturn (by 10% to 15% or so) bothers you, I am afraid you made an overly aggressive asset allocation decision.
harland
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Post by harland »

Will it get much worse? Maybe. Maybe not.

The key is to stay disciplined in this turmoil. I own VTIVX and have been putting money into it twice a month on autopilot. I view the day-to-day market fluctuations as interesting reading, but nothing more than that.

Like PiperWarrior posted, if the ups and downs of your portfolio are making you sick, it may be time to rethink your asset allocation.
The one thing that unites all human beings, regardless of age, gender, religion, economic status or ethnic background, is that, deep down inside, we ALL believe that we are above-average drivers.
Valuethinker
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Re: Is VTIVX safe?

Post by Valuethinker »

SirBogle wrote:I am pretty new at "investing" and I have put a substantial amount on VTIVX (Target Retirement 2045), and I have already lost probably 15% - 20% of what I have put in.

I will admit it is highly stressful, and I have thought of selling, but I do know the buy and hold mantra that is preached here.

But I have heard that we are headed into a major crash, and our economy will be hit with a major Depression.

I mean is it going to get much worse? I wonder if it is better to sell and pull out the 85% I have left rather than lose it all.

Advice?
2045.

Suppose the US enters a recession just like the Great Depression.

In 2031 or thereabouts, you will have made your money back (adjusting for inflation which was negative, well before that).

In 2045 you should have 3-4 times your money (at least).

The next few years could be rough, but you will have lots of time to recover.

Me. In 2045, I will be trying to pick out a good grave site: I have considerably less than 50% chance of making it that far ;-).
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VictoriaF
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Re: Is VTIVX safe?

Post by VictoriaF »

Valuethinker wrote: Me. In 2045, I will be trying to pick out a good grave site: I have considerably less than 50% chance of making it that far ;-).
You may want to consult with Aubrey de Grey first:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aubrey_de_Grey
Inventor of the Bogleheads Secret Handshake | Winner of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)
jebmke
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Post by jebmke »

Me. In 2045, I will be trying to pick out a good grave site: I have considerably less than 50% chance of making it that far ;)
If I am still here I'll probably be drooling on myself. Although spouse has firm orders to take me out sailing and kick me overboard if I get to that stage.
Stay hydrated; don't sweat the small stuff
Gabriella
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Post by Gabriella »

Oh, VT, you never know . . . you might have this lady's longevity:

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.h ... A963958260

In other words, I wouldn't bet on it. ;)

Gabriella
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VTIVX

Post by pkcrafter »

VTIVX is 90% stock; that's pretty strong stuff for an unseasoned investor.
I would not suggest you sell and get back in later, but I would suggest you read the following link and decide if you can really tolerate 90% stock.
Be sure to also read the links on market history. If you decide to make any change, consider it permanent, at least until there is some change in your life that requires you alter it.

http://investingessentials.blogspot.com ... on-in.html


Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.
Topic Author
SirBogle
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Post by SirBogle »

Thanks for all the replies!

I may hold off on buying more VTIVX but I will leave what I have in there for now. But at these prices it does look to be quite a bargain.

What "safer" investments do you guys suggest I look into? CDs? Bonds? Money Market?
Topic Author
SirBogle
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Post by SirBogle »

I guess I should have gone with my gut and sold. I've lost too much to sell now.

I wonder how much lower it will go?
PSzalapski
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Post by PSzalapski »

SirBogle wrote:I guess I should have gone with my gut and sold. I've lost too much to sell now.
Never go with your gut. We'll never have Biff's 1950-2000 sports almanac, so stop saying "shoulda, woulda, coulda". Read a bit about long-term investing strategy. You should be saying "I've lost so much--I wish I had some extra money to buy more! These funds that were a good deal back then are a fantastic deal now!"
KiashKiash
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Re: Is VTIVX safe?

Post by KiashKiash »

SirBogle,

just saw this post and wondered how you are doing years after that 2008 bear market.

I am just getting started and reading your post is kinda sobering for me as far as asset allocation and patience should the market take a downturn.

Thanks
dbr
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Re: Is VTIVX safe?

Post by dbr »

SirBogle wrote:I am pretty new at "investing" and I have put a substantial amount on VTIVX (Target Retirement 2045), and I have already lost probably 15% - 20% of what I have put in.

I will admit it is highly stressful, and I have thought of selling, but I do know the buy and hold mantra that is preached here.

But I have heard that we are headed into a major crash, and our economy will be hit with a major Depression.

I mean is it going to get much worse? I wonder if it is better to sell and pull out the 85% I have left rather than lose it all.

Advice?
VTIVX is higher today than at any time in the chart since inception. That means it is mathematically impossible to have lost any money at all unless you continually sold high and then bought low, but you say you bought and held over time. In reality you should have large gains and that does not even include dividends.

How do you explain your losses? Where did you get that data?
anil686
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Re: Is VTIVX safe?

Post by anil686 »

dbr wrote:
SirBogle wrote:I am pretty new at "investing" and I have put a substantial amount on VTIVX (Target Retirement 2045), and I have already lost probably 15% - 20% of what I have put in.

I will admit it is highly stressful, and I have thought of selling, but I do know the buy and hold mantra that is preached here.

But I have heard that we are headed into a major crash, and our economy will be hit with a major Depression.

I mean is it going to get much worse? I wonder if it is better to sell and pull out the 85% I have left rather than lose it all.

Advice?
VTIVX is higher today than at any time in the chart since inception. That means it is mathematically impossible to have lost any money at all unless you continually sold high and then bought low, but you say you bought and held over time. In reality you should have large gains and that does not even include dividends.

How do you explain your losses? Where did you get that data?
I think this was a 9 year old post that was bumped... Shows how far we have come in nine years...
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jhfenton
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Re: Is VTIVX safe?

Post by jhfenton »

dbr wrote:
SirBogle wrote:I am pretty new at "investing" and I have put a substantial amount on VTIVX (Target Retirement 2045), and I have already lost probably 15% - 20% of what I have put in.

I will admit it is highly stressful, and I have thought of selling, but I do know the buy and hold mantra that is preached here.

But I have heard that we are headed into a major crash, and our economy will be hit with a major Depression.

I mean is it going to get much worse? I wonder if it is better to sell and pull out the 85% I have left rather than lose it all.

Advice?
VTIVX is higher today than at any time in the chart since inception. That means it is mathematically impossible to have lost any money at all unless you continually sold high and then bought low, but you say you bought and held over time. In reality you should have large gains and that does not even include dividends.

How do you explain your losses? Where did you get that data?
Everyone had losses in September 2008. :beer
dbr
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Re: Is VTIVX safe?

Post by dbr »

jhfenton wrote:
dbr wrote:
SirBogle wrote:I am pretty new at "investing" and I have put a substantial amount on VTIVX (Target Retirement 2045), and I have already lost probably 15% - 20% of what I have put in.

I will admit it is highly stressful, and I have thought of selling, but I do know the buy and hold mantra that is preached here.

But I have heard that we are headed into a major crash, and our economy will be hit with a major Depression.

I mean is it going to get much worse? I wonder if it is better to sell and pull out the 85% I have left rather than lose it all.

Advice?
VTIVX is higher today than at any time in the chart since inception. That means it is mathematically impossible to have lost any money at all unless you continually sold high and then bought low, but you say you bought and held over time. In reality you should have large gains and that does not even include dividends.

How do you explain your losses? Where did you get that data?
Everyone had losses in September 2008. :beer
Indeed. And the answer was that VTIVX was not safe then and is not safe now, nor at any time in between, nor will it be safe at any time in the future.
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abuss368
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Re: Is VTIVX safe?

Post by abuss368 »

All investments have risk. There is no escaping risk. Cash has risk.

The Vanguard Target and LifeStrategy funds include thousands of U.S. and International stocks and bonds at very low costs. These are excellent fund for the long term.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
ponyboy
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Re: Is VTIVX safe?

Post by ponyboy »

My entire Roth IRA consists of one fund...VTIVX.

Since 2006 (when I started roth) I put in around $56,000....fund is now worth $86,000. So in 10 years its grown around $30k. Ill take it.
Gufomel
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Re: Is VTIVX safe?

Post by Gufomel »

Looks like SirBogle's last post was in April 2009. Would be impressive if he actually came back to respond to this!
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