Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

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whiteprius
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Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by whiteprius »

If you have $100k in mutual funds, your broker will treat that as $50k in cash for margin purposes. So, without forcing you to sell the mutual funds, they'll pretend you have $50k in cash in your margin account, which you can use to buy $167k (50/0.3) of SPY.

So which is more Bogle-heady for December?

100k in safe mutual funds

100k in safe mutual funds
100k in the S&P500 in December, but this is all on margin with some cushion because you didn't get the full $167k.
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by lgs88 »

Take an afternoon to read this thread before you start messing around with leverage: viewtopic.php?t=5934
merely an interested amateur
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by EngCapt1 »

And the follow-up thread: viewtopic.php?t=11742
Last edited by EngCapt1 on Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by whiteprius »

OK fair enough, but let's say I did some multiple of this with my money planning to get out on the close with a nice few thousand dollars gain, bt couldn't get out of the S&P end of day because it had a crazy inexplicable WTHF is going on drop in the last 15 minutes (even though both the DJIA and NASDAQ went up a ton and didn't drop). It's prudent to hold onto this until tomorrow where there will be a certain rebound, rather than take a few thousand dollars loss by liquidating in after hours trading no?
Last edited by whiteprius on Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by SmileyFace »

You decided to move all your stock mutual funds into High-Yield Bond funds (or at least this is what you stated in another thread) and now you are considering buying back into S&P on margin? Do I have this right?
Nothing about what you are stating is very Bogle-heady as no Bogle-heady book/source/reference ever talks about market timing nor about buying on margin. Just the fact you are asking what you should do in "December" is not very Bogle-heady.
Maybe you are in the wrong forum :)
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by whiteprius »

I was planning to only do it today, got in at the open, get out at the close. Was working beautifully with a nice few thousand dollars gain, free money if you think of it, until 3:50pm when I don't know what in the world happened to the S&P. Right now I'm planning to hold onto it until tomorrow, get that few thousand of free money, and then not do this again.
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by technovelist »

whiteprius wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:15 pm I was planning to only do it today, got in at the open, get out at the close. Was working beautifully with a nice few thousand dollars gain, free money if you think of it, until 3:50pm when I don't know what in the world happened to the S&P. Right now I'm planning to hold onto it until tomorrow, get that few thousand of free money, and then not do this again.
That's crazy! Why, it's almost like you can't tell what the market is going to do!

Who knew? :oops:
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by Thesaints »

whiteprius wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:11 pm OK fair enough, but let's say I did some multiple of this with my money planning to get out on the close with a nice few thousand dollars gain, bt couldn't get out of the S&P end of day because it had a crazy inexplicable WTHF is going on drop in the last 15 minutes (even though both the DJIA and NASDAQ went up a ton and didn't drop)
Probably some big institutional player targeting your position.
It's prudent to hold onto this until tomorrow where there will be a certain rebound, rather than take a few thousand dollars loss by liquidating in after hours trading no?
If the rebound is certain I'd borrow to invest some more. DITM Calls will give you a x2 leverage at very little cost and if you use an Ultra Proshare as the underlying, you get x4.
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by alex_686 »

whiteprius wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:11 pm OK fair enough, but let's say I did some multiple of this with my money and couldn't get out of the S&P end of day because it had a crazy inexplicable WTHF is going on drop in the last 15 minutes (even though both the DJIA and NASDAQ went up a ton and didn't drop). It's prudent to hold onto this until tomorrow where there will be a certain rebound, rather than take a few thousand dollars loss by liquidating in after hours trading no?
I have worked the margin desk at a brokerage firm. I am not getting your question. Why trade after hours? I can't think of the point.

1 of 2 things will happen. The brokerage firm normally will send out a margin demand giving you X days to bring in Y dollars - either by cash, selling securities, or by market appreciation. Or the market blows up, the broker sells you out, then informs you. I would be hard pressed to think of a real life situation where the second option happened if you were invested in a broad market index and I was on the margin desk during 9/11.
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by whiteprius »

Thesaints wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:18 pm
Probably some big institutional player targeting your position.

. . .

If the rebound is certain I'd borrow to invest some more. DITM Calls will give you a x2 leverage at very little cost and if you use an Ultra Proshare as the underlying, you get x4.
Oh I wish I was that important. This was only $400k of the S&P. I didn't use the full margin and 4 seems like a nice number. I don't think anyone has the power to drop the s&p that steeply in ten minutes for me, for a position I finished purchasing in the morning-ish.

Every time I do something like this and get stressed out, I tell myself I wont' do it again, but I do. THey're not ludicrious crazy bets, but I wish I wasn't so greedy.
Last edited by whiteprius on Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by whiteprius »

alex_686 wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:20 pm
whiteprius wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:11 pm OK fair enough, but let's say I did some multiple of this with my money and couldn't get out of the S&P end of day because it had a crazy inexplicable WTHF is going on drop in the last 15 minutes (even though both the DJIA and NASDAQ went up a ton and didn't drop). It's prudent to hold onto this until tomorrow where there will be a certain rebound, rather than take a few thousand dollars loss by liquidating in after hours trading no?
I have worked the margin desk at a brokerage firm. I am not getting your question. Why trade after hours? I can't think of the point.
Well SPY is up a bit afterhours so I can just get out of this bet and sleep easy. But I'm like 95% sure the S&P will be up tomorrow and that this was an erratic drop so that seems like throwing money away.
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

whiteprius wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:08 pm If you have $100k in mutual funds, your broker will treat that as $50k in cash for margin purposes. So, without forcing you to sell the mutual funds, they'll pretend you have $50k in cash in your margin account, which you can use to buy $167k (50/0.3) of SPY.

So which is more Bogle-heady for December?

100k in safe mutual funds

100k in safe mutual funds
100k in the S&P500 in December, but this is all on margin with some cushion because you didn't get the full $167k.
Trying to earn your $117k back? :twisted:
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

DaftInvestor wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:14 pm You decided to move all your stock mutual funds into High-Yield Bond funds (or at least this is what you stated in another thread) and now you are considering buying back into S&P on margin? Do I have this right?
Nothing about what you are stating is very Bogle-heady as no Bogle-heady book/source/reference ever talks about market timing nor about buying on margin. Just the fact you are asking what you should do in "December" is not very Bogle-heady.
Maybe you are in the wrong forum :)
+1
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by whiteprius »

No this forum is good for me. I'm really trying to drop this day trading risk taking habit and hopefully with enough abuse I will. The only addition I woudl recommend is an audio feature so people could yell at and lecture the risk-takers.
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by Thesaints »

whiteprius wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:21 pm But I'm like 95% sure the S&P will be up tomorrow
Have you ever heard of Nick Leeson ?
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by whiteprius »

Thesaints wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:26 pm
whiteprius wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:21 pm But I'm like 95% sure the S&P will be up tomorrow
Have you ever heard of Nick Leeson ?
Oh come on this isn't *that* risky. I'm in $400k of the actual S&P not a derivative.
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by alex_686 »

whiteprius wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:21 pm Well SPY is up a bit afterhours so I can just get out of this bet and sleep easy. But I'm like 95% sure the S&P will be up tomorrow and that this was an erratic drop so that seems like throwing money away.
After-hour markets are thin, so I would not trust the posted price and I would like not to be brutalized by the higher bid / ask spreads. Margin is on the edge of Bogleheads, quick trading like this is not, and trading in the after hours market is for the desperate.

Take a deep breath. I don't think this type of trading is your cup of tea. It requires nerves of steel and a fair amount of skill.
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by whiteprius »

alex_686 wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:29 pm Take a deep breath. I don't think this type of trading is your cup of tea. It requires nerves of steel and a fair amount of skill.
Yeah really well said, and the one time in my life when I did take a stoic nerves of steel "ride the waves" attitude on such a trade (with an idiotic health stock), I lost $30k in 3 hours of sitting there telling myself "don't panic it'll come back. don't panic. don't let your emotions get to you" before finally waking up and getting out (and lucky I did I would have lost $100k if I stayed in).

These bets are not worth the stress. It's just a few thousand dollars but still.
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by GCD »

Whatever man. Gambling is cool. I play the lotto at $1 a week myself. Whatever amount you're comfortable with as long as you accept that it's gambling.

:greedy
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by whiteprius »

Serious academic comment Alex -- the prices move a preposterous amount in overnight trading lately. It's really bizarre. Like SPY closed at 266.75 but it's already up to 266.94 in extended hours. Not sure what to make of it but it happens every day.
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by KlangFool »

whiteprius wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:27 pm
Thesaints wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:26 pm
whiteprius wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:21 pm But I'm like 95% sure the S&P will be up tomorrow
Have you ever heard of Nick Leeson ?
Oh come on this isn't *that* risky. I'm in $400k of the actual S&P not a derivative.
whiteprius,

So what? Can you afford to lose 200K? How many years of savings is that? How about 100K?

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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by whiteprius »

That amount of an S&P drop would be 2007ish and unlikely, but your attitude is the right one klangfool. I think smart investors overstate risk and understate upside.
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by Toons »

Margin sounds to me like a headache I would rather avoid :happy
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by KlangFool »

whiteprius wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:39 pm That amount of an S&P drop would be 2007ish and unlikely, but your attitude is the right one klangfool. I think smart investors overstate risk and understate upside.
whiteprius,

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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by JBTX »

whiteprius wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:39 pm That amount of an S&P drop would be 2007ish and unlikely, but your attitude is the right one klangfool. I think smart investors overstate risk and understate upside.
This is gambling. It is compulsive and thrill seeking behavior. It is not investing. Until you are willing to accept this nobody here can help you.
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by whiteprius »

JBTX wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:45 pm This is gambling. It is compulsive and thrill seeking behavior. It is not investing. Until you are willing to accept this nobody here can help you.
This is true. The problem is I was a math major so can prove why one should avoid casinos, but this S&P bet seemed certain to have a positive expected value and there's no math to prove why it was a bad bet. I still don't know what in the world happened those last 10 minutes of the trading day. The DJIA and NASDAQ maintained their gains but the S&P fell like a rock.
Last edited by whiteprius on Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by technovelist »

KlangFool wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:43 pm
whiteprius wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:39 pm That amount of an S&P drop would be 2007ish and unlikely, but your attitude is the right one klangfool. I think smart investors overstate risk and understate upside.
whiteprius,

I lost 50% of my portfolio in the Telecom bust. I paid dearly for my lesson.

KlangFool
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by JBTX »

whiteprius wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:46 pm
JBTX wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:45 pm This is gambling. It is compulsive and thrill seeking behavior. It is not investing. Until you are willing to accept this nobody here can help you.
This is true. The problem is I was a math major so can prove why one should avoid casinos, but this S&P bet seemed certain to have a positive expected value. I still don't know what in the world happened those last 10 minutes of the trading day. The DJIA and NASDAQ maintained their gains but the S&P fell like a rock.
Just because something has a positive expected value doesn’t mean it fits within a reasonable risk aversion curve. Would you put your entire life savings on a bet with 100% payout and a 52% chance of being right? I sure as hell wouldn’t.
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by whiteprius »

JBTX wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:49 pm
Just because something has a positive expected value doesn’t mean it fits within a reasonable risk aversion curve. Would you put your entire life savings on a bet with 100% payout and a 52% chance of being right? I sure as hell wouldn’t.
See these are good attitudes. I've noticed that successful people are much more risk averse than the common folk.
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by Thesaints »

whiteprius wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:46 pm The problem is I was a math major so can prove why one should avoid casinos,
Well, that's not really correct. What's the best investment if you have 100k and owe 200k to the Russian mafia by week's close ?
but this S&P bet seemed certain to have a positive expected value and there's no math to prove why it was a bad bet.
but there is also no math able to prove that the expected value was indeed positive.
I still don't know what in the world happened those last 10 minutes of the trading day. The DJIA and NASDAQ maintained their gains but the S&P fell like a rock.
That's because you are not a finance major. :)
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by JBTX »

whiteprius wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:50 pm
JBTX wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:49 pm
Just because something has a positive expected value doesn’t mean it fits within a reasonable risk aversion curve. Would you put your entire life savings on a bet with 100% payout and a 52% chance of being right? I sure as hell wouldn’t.
See these are good attitudes. I've noticed that successful people are much more risk averse than the common folk.
Gambling whether at the casino or stock market is a compulsive disorder and often has little to do
With education or even success. My wife wastes lots of money at casinos and she is very smart and successful.
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by g$$ »

If you want to use leverage, it probably makes sense to hold the position for longer than one day. Look into futures for a cheap way to do that.

-g$$
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by alex_686 »

whiteprius wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:35 pm Serious academic comment Alex -- the prices move a preposterous amount in overnight trading lately. It's really bizarre. Like SPY closed at 266.75 but it's already up to 266.94 in extended hours. Not sure what to make of it but it happens every day.
Does it? Does it really?

Look at the market during normal trading hours. Lots of traders. Some are fundamental investors who have time horizons of years, others are engaged in statistical arbitrage with time horizons of less than a second. In short, a rich deep heterogeneous market with great price discovery going on. I trust those prices - the market's liquidity has depth.

The after-hours market is filled with the desperate and those who pray on them. There is no guaranty that you can sell your stock at that price. Thin liquidity. Post your trade and you may find the other side has evaporated. To get a trade to execute one often has to offer a ridiculous price. Often the person on the other side has a information advantage over you.
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by whiteprius »

Yet the after hours trading determines the opening price which is what makes this odd. Back in the old days there was virtually no after hours price movement.
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by Thesaints »

whiteprius wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:58 pm Yet the after hours trading determines the opening price
After hours market closes at 8pm Eastern. A lot can happen in the following 13.5 hours.
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by KlangFool »

whiteprius wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:58 pm Yet the after hours trading determines the opening price which is what makes this odd. Back in the old days there was virtually no after hours price movement.
whiteprius,

Can you do better than a bunch of Nobel Prize winners?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term ... Management

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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by whiteprius »

Do you disciplined folks have margin accounts, or do you refuse that feature on purpose to avoid temptation? I shouldn't have gotten one. Should have done cash only.
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by alex_686 »

whiteprius wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:46 pm This is true. The problem is I was a math major so can prove why one should avoid casinos, but this S&P bet seemed certain to have a positive expected value and there's no math to prove why it was a bad bet. I still don't know what in the world happened those last 10 minutes of the trading day. The DJIA and NASDAQ maintained their gains but the S&P fell like a rock.
At a latter date we might go into the mechanics of why the market acts weird at the end of the day. Mainly because certain people need to do housecleaning duties every day so there is a last minute rush.

As a math major you should know that while the returns of the S&P are positive this does not make a good investment. On average you should be able to eek out a decent above average return by going on margin. However the markets have a serious fat tail issue, which means that every so often the market will break you.

Try reading up on "Long Term Capital Management" where guys with math PhDs and Nobel prizes in economics lost about 1 billion dollars in 6 weeks and need the help of the Federal Reserve to prevent the collapse of the market. Fat tails kill.
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by Thesaints »

whiteprius wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:04 pm Do you disciplined folks have margin accounts, or do you refuse that feature on purpose to avoid temptation? I shouldn't have gotten one. Should have done cash only.
Of course. Can't do options comme il faut, otherwise.
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by alex_686 »

whiteprius wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:04 pm Do you disciplined folks have margin accounts, or do you refuse that feature on purpose to avoid temptation? I shouldn't have gotten one. Should have done cash only.
I have a margin account. The rate is better than my credit card and it has helped me out with some cash flow issues. Short term only. I have also recommended leverage in the past. In particular, by not paying down one's mortgage account.

However, if you have a habit I would recommend removing it. I have seen too many people lose it all by playing with margin.
Former brokerage operations & mutual fund accountant. I hate risk, which is why I study and embrace it.
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by whiteprius »

You don't get 0% fee 0% interest for 12 month balance transfer offers?
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by triceratop »

whiteprius wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:11 pm OK fair enough, but let's say I did some multiple of this with my money planning to get out on the close with a nice few thousand dollars gain, bt couldn't get out of the S&P end of day because it had a crazy inexplicable WTHF is going on drop in the last 15 minutes (even though both the DJIA and NASDAQ went up a ton and didn't drop). It's prudent to hold onto this until tomorrow where there will be a certain rebound, rather than take a few thousand dollars loss by liquidating in after hours trading no?
It took you less than 60 seconds to read those threads and digest the lessons from them? You are a fast reader, and an even faster learner! :twisted:
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by whiteprius »

triceratop wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:12 pm
It took you less than 60 seconds to read those threads and digest the lessons from them? You are a fast reader, and an even faster learner! :twisted:
DIdn't take too long to figure out they weren't too positive on margin investing.
Wakefield1
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by Wakefield1 »

About my first taste of stock investing came in late 1970s or early 1980s. There was a stockbroker who did the same Saturday 5 mile run that I did-he might have given me a break on commission now and then-I was just a laborer
I seem to remember him giving me a lecture about the evils of margin :oops:
most of the stocks I bought through him are still paying dividends-and more and more dividends than they did back then-but those dividends,to the extent I don't need to spend them go into buying mutual fund shares
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triceratop
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by triceratop »

whiteprius wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:15 pm
triceratop wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:12 pm
It took you less than 60 seconds to read those threads and digest the lessons from them? You are a fast reader, and an even faster learner! :twisted:
DIdn't take too long to figure out they weren't too positive on margin investing.
On the contrary, market timer started off very positive on margin investing. He ended up, well, negative
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."
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whiteprius
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by whiteprius »

I can get out right now in overnight trading, based on the bid price, with zero gain/loss for the day, but I'm sure the S&P is going to shoot up tomorrow so I'm staying in for now. Markets will be open for another hour and 20 minutes though so I guess I'll be clicking a lot until then.
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whiteprius
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by whiteprius »

OK, I got out with $23 profit for the day on this trade after commissions and ETF fees. Ultimately this article scared me. The S&P has been on the longest no 5% dip streak in its history.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-i ... e37322037/

I wish had someone to follow me around and straight up slap me if I ever think of doing this again. Wasted a day.
Thesaints
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by Thesaints »

I was going to short the S+P, but now it will probably shoot up at market open.
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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by TomatoTomahto »

S&P futures are down 2 basis points. That’s relatively flat, but down. What do you know that nobody else does?

ETA: you posted while I was typing and checking futures. $23 dollars, heh? Sounds like the crappiest job in the world. Second crappiest might be following you around to slap you when you get frisky.
Last edited by TomatoTomahto on Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
dbr
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Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Post by dbr »

whiteprius wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:54 pm
I wish had someone to follow me around and straight up slap me if I ever think of doing this again. Wasted a day.
You do. It is the person wearing your pants and standing in your shoes. (Or wearing your pants, skirt, dress or whatever if are female or a male wearing a dress, your whatever it is you wear if you are something or other. It may even be you don't wear shoes, but the point is still the same.)
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