Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

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WanderingDoc
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Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by WanderingDoc » Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:21 pm

I was sitting in a cafe a couple of months ago, I didn't buy Bitcoin when it was $4600 per Bitcoin. I even had my bank info authenticated the few days prior. I think my PC battery died and I went to the gym instead.

I don't really need the money, but I'd be lying if I said I don't feel a twinge of regret. Then again, I don't need $10K either. I was hesitating because I don't really know much about it. Thoughts?
One day it suddenly dawned on me that I had won the real estate lottery. | I'm not looking to get rich quickly. I'm not looking to get rich slowly. I'm looking to get rich for sure.

kjvmartin
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by kjvmartin » Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:23 pm

Also didn't play the lottery. Both are pretty risky. Put the $4600 into something like an index fund.

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FIREchief
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by FIREchief » Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:50 pm

It might help if you gave us some idea of what bitcoin is worth today?
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.

am
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by am » Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:52 pm

WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:21 pm
I was sitting in a cafe a couple of months ago, I didn't buy Bitcoin when it was $4600 per Bitcoin. I even had my bank info authenticated the few days prior. I think my PC battery died and I went to the gym instead.

I don't really need the money, but I'd be lying if I said I don't feel a twinge of regret. Then again, I don't need $10K either. I was hesitating because I don't really know much about it. Thoughts?

Don’t feel bad. In the future, you could actually tell people that you lived through the bubble unlike many of the others of the past 300-400 years. Think how ridiculous it sounds to trade a code generated coin that has no intrinsic value and little practical use. People will wonder how could anyone pay 8k a coin for something like this? At some point this will be realized and it will be another one for those bubble chapters in the investing books.

WanderingDoc
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by WanderingDoc » Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:59 pm

FIREchief wrote:
Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:50 pm
It might help if you gave us some idea of what bitcoin is worth today?
Around $9K, Sir.
One day it suddenly dawned on me that I had won the real estate lottery. | I'm not looking to get rich quickly. I'm not looking to get rich slowly. I'm looking to get rich for sure.

WanderingDoc
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by WanderingDoc » Sun Nov 26, 2017 12:04 am

am wrote:
Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:52 pm
WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:21 pm
I was sitting in a cafe a couple of months ago, I didn't buy Bitcoin when it was $4600 per Bitcoin. I even had my bank info authenticated the few days prior. I think my PC battery died and I went to the gym instead.

I don't really need the money, but I'd be lying if I said I don't feel a twinge of regret. Then again, I don't need $10K either. I was hesitating because I don't really know much about it. Thoughts?

Don’t feel bad. In the future, you could actually tell people that you lived through the bubble unlike many of the others of the past 300-400 years. Think how ridiculous it sounds to trade a code generated coin that has no intrinsic value and little practical use. People will wonder how could anyone pay 8k a coin for something like this? At some point this will be realized and it will be another one for those bubble chapters in the investing books.
I hear you. I don't see the value. But, what if it goes to $50K? Its a crisp -15°F night outside, i just got home, there is ~$100K in my savings acct that I normally keep liquid for real estate investments. Would there be any harm if I just waste $10K of that now on Bitcoin? I feel like I don't mind taking big risks.. but then again, we are woefully inaccurate in estimating our own risk tolerances.
One day it suddenly dawned on me that I had won the real estate lottery. | I'm not looking to get rich quickly. I'm not looking to get rich slowly. I'm looking to get rich for sure.

deanmoriarty
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by deanmoriarty » Sun Nov 26, 2017 12:51 am

WanderingDoc wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 12:04 am
am wrote:
Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:52 pm
WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:21 pm
I was sitting in a cafe a couple of months ago, I didn't buy Bitcoin when it was $4600 per Bitcoin. I even had my bank info authenticated the few days prior. I think my PC battery died and I went to the gym instead.

I don't really need the money, but I'd be lying if I said I don't feel a twinge of regret. Then again, I don't need $10K either. I was hesitating because I don't really know much about it. Thoughts?

Don’t feel bad. In the future, you could actually tell people that you lived through the bubble unlike many of the others of the past 300-400 years. Think how ridiculous it sounds to trade a code generated coin that has no intrinsic value and little practical use. People will wonder how could anyone pay 8k a coin for something like this? At some point this will be realized and it will be another one for those bubble chapters in the investing books.
I hear you. I don't see the value. But, what if it goes to $50K? Its a crisp -15°F night outside, i just got home, there is ~$100K in my savings acct that I normally keep liquid for real estate investments. Would there be any harm if I just waste $10K of that now on Bitcoin? I feel like I don't mind taking big risks.. but then again, we are woefully inaccurate in estimating our own risk tolerances.
You can do like I do and allocate 3% of your portfolio to btc/eth/ltc. It's a stupid and irrational fad, but 3% won't do you any real harm, it'll be fun and entertaining and you'll put an end to your irrational FOMO.

I entered with ~15k (~3%, the only non-Vanguard "alternative" part of my portfolio) a while ago and now I have a 6 figure return that will sell in about a month as soon as those positions turn into long term capital gains (unless it goes to 0 in the meantime, that is :D). I'll sell in order to rebalance to a 3% position, and if it keeps going up after that I'll keep selling by rebalancing using some generous thresholds (e.g. if/when it goes from 3% to 15%, as opposed to the normal 2% threshold I use for the other parts of my portfolio). If it goes down, I might decide to pour some more to top it again to 3%, or just abandon the experiment all together, if my FOMO disappears.

Had those 15k gone to 0, I would have been just as happy. I am blessed to have a stable income, young (31yo) and single, a great sense of financial responsibility and great savings rate (> 50%), so why not. It's fun.

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Kenkat
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by Kenkat » Sun Nov 26, 2017 1:22 am

If it makes you feel any better, I didn’t buy Bitcoin at $10 (I was aware of it as a “thing” at that price). I also didn’t buy Amazon or Google at IPO either, nor did I buy Dell or any number of other home runs. It always seems clear in retrospect, but it’s not when you are in that moment.

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randomizer
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by randomizer » Sun Nov 26, 2017 1:40 am

All the people talking about buying Bitcoin should just go out and buy Bitcoin. That way the price might even keep going up. May be a Ponzi scheme, but oh well.

WanderingDoc
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by WanderingDoc » Sun Nov 26, 2017 2:57 am

randomizer wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 1:40 am
All the people talking about buying Bitcoin should just go out and buy Bitcoin. That way the price might even keep going up. May be a Ponzi scheme, but oh well.
Do you honestly think it may be a Ponzi scheme? Curious as to your rationale.
One day it suddenly dawned on me that I had won the real estate lottery. | I'm not looking to get rich quickly. I'm not looking to get rich slowly. I'm looking to get rich for sure.

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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by denovo » Sun Nov 26, 2017 2:58 am

WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:21 pm
I was sitting in a cafe a couple of months ago, I didn't buy Bitcoin when it was $4600 per Bitcoin. I even had my bank info authenticated the few days prior. I think my PC battery died and I went to the gym instead.

I don't really need the money, but I'd be lying if I said I don't feel a twinge of regret. Then again, I don't need $10K either. I was hesitating because I don't really know much about it. Thoughts?

Bogleheads don't speculate in currencies, or stocks for that matter.

Bfwolf
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by Bfwolf » Sun Nov 26, 2017 3:13 am

Don't feel bad, I didn't buy Bitcoin at $4,600 either. Probably nobody on this forum did. :)

ny_rn
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by ny_rn » Sun Nov 26, 2017 3:38 am

I bought half a bitcoin for ~ $4k and then traded it. I should have held it the Boglehead way. I also bought ethereum ~ $100. I'll hold onto that. :D

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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by peterinjapan » Sun Nov 26, 2017 4:19 am

I bought at like $5200 did, but only because I'm trying to prove a point to my son about silly speculating. We'll see where it goes.

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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by bargainhuntingking » Sun Nov 26, 2017 4:39 am

I first bought bitcoin near $1200 in late November 2013. That was a relative peak and it proceeded to plummet into the $300 range with a few mild short-lived ups and downs. Ultimately I sold all bitcoin by late 2014 as I felt it was being manipulated by "whales" in China doing cyclical pump and dumps. I was speculating and it was far too volatile for my taste.

I reported my bitcoin trades as securities on my IRS forms and tax lost harvested about $16k work of losses, thus turning lemons into some lemonade.

I executed my transactions through Coinbase, which appeared to be the most reputable US "broker" of bitcoin. One of my long term bank accounts (HSBC) was summarily closed without explanation after I transacted a few purchases and redemptions though my savings account to Coinbase; I could sense the banking establishment's unease with such a new and threatening entity as bitcoin.

Had I held all coins up until today I would have about $1.7 million profit and could walk out of my job abruptly tomorrow with my middle finger raised and into early retirement. Do I care? No. I didn't buy Apple stock in the 1980s either. Bitcoin could go to zero or $100k by the end of the year. There will always be missed opportunities in retrospect. I would have been taking a huge risk to hold into bitcoin in 2014, and I didn't feel it was worth it. My decision was rational and sound. No regrets. If you want to speculate, go for it! But no one knows what will happen next.

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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by gd » Sun Nov 26, 2017 6:38 am

If this is the only investment or speculation you've ever considered but not executed that has doubled in price, you haven't been doing this much.

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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by z3r0c00l » Sun Nov 26, 2017 7:27 am

A bubble for sure, but hard to call the top.

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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by ccf » Sun Nov 26, 2017 7:40 am

I bought 3 bitcoin at $900 in 2013 and sold them at a loss about 6 months later. Ooops!

not that there is any way I could have held them through all of the ups an downs and still had them today. The price didn't hit $900 again until 2017, 4 years later.

If i dug into my pre-Bogleheads trading history I'm sure I'd find some individual stocks that are doing great today that I couldn't stomach then (AAPL, etc) oh well!

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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by Malinois000 » Sun Nov 26, 2017 7:51 am

I purchased a handful in mid August at $4,200 along with Ethereuem. So far, it's a great investment. I am holding as I think it's going much higher now that hedge funds and the CME are getting involved.

Valuethinker
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by Valuethinker » Sun Nov 26, 2017 8:01 am

Malinois000 wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 7:51 am
I purchased a handful in mid August at $4,200 along with Ethereuem. So far, it's a great investment. I am holding as I think it's going much higher now that hedge funds and the CME are getting involved.
Now that they are involved, it could easily go to $50k or $100k.

The investment case, given the income you are earning from this investment, is clear. Hold on! More money to be made!

In fact, why not put more money in?
Last edited by Valuethinker on Sun Nov 26, 2017 8:04 am, edited 1 time in total.

Valuethinker
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by Valuethinker » Sun Nov 26, 2017 8:04 am

WanderingDoc wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 12:04 am
am wrote:
Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:52 pm
WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:21 pm
I was sitting in a cafe a couple of months ago, I didn't buy Bitcoin when it was $4600 per Bitcoin. I even had my bank info authenticated the few days prior. I think my PC battery died and I went to the gym instead.

I don't really need the money, but I'd be lying if I said I don't feel a twinge of regret. Then again, I don't need $10K either. I was hesitating because I don't really know much about it. Thoughts?

Don’t feel bad. In the future, you could actually tell people that you lived through the bubble unlike many of the others of the past 300-400 years. Think how ridiculous it sounds to trade a code generated coin that has no intrinsic value and little practical use. People will wonder how could anyone pay 8k a coin for something like this? At some point this will be realized and it will be another one for those bubble chapters in the investing books.
I hear you. I don't see the value. But, what if it goes to $50K? Its a crisp -15°F night outside, i just got home, there is ~$100K in my savings acct that I normally keep liquid for real estate investments. Would there be any harm if I just waste $10K of that now on Bitcoin? I feel like I don't mind taking big risks.. but then again, we are woefully inaccurate in estimating our own risk tolerances.
I would encourage you to put that $10k into Bitcoin.

The proceeds from the spinout of the next currency, because Bitcoin can generate endless spinout currencies, will pay for the deal.

All you need is someone else to then decide that Bitcoin is attractive for the same reason, you have another buyer at the margin, the price goes up. This could go on infinitely. And the cost of borrowing in some currencies is negative: either in nominal terms (Eurozone) or real terms (China). As long as the Chinese keep buying, and China has negative real rates and a property boom, this will keep going up.

$10k? Why not 100k? You look like a person who backs his bets, to me.

Valuethinker
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by Valuethinker » Sun Nov 26, 2017 8:11 am

WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:21 pm
I was sitting in a cafe a couple of months ago, I didn't buy Bitcoin when it was $4600 per Bitcoin. I even had my bank info authenticated the few days prior. I think my PC battery died and I went to the gym instead.

I don't really need the money, but I'd be lying if I said I don't feel a twinge of regret. Then again, I don't need $10K either. I was hesitating because I don't really know much about it. Thoughts?
You seem to me to be the sort of person who enjoys making money and feels regret if you miss out on a trend. The unwashed masses like most here think about downside risk, but you understand that you need to take risk in order to make money.

Therefore I would encourage you to buy more cybercurrencies. This is surely only the beginning of a huge secular transformation, and you can be in on (nearly) the ground floor.

Valuethinker
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by Valuethinker » Sun Nov 26, 2017 8:13 am

z3r0c00l wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 7:27 am
A bubble for sure, but hard to call the top.
There is a large body of economic opinion, and former Chairman of the Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan would be among those, that you can only tell a financial bubble in retrospect. Greenspan is undoubtedly the most famous Chairman of the Federal Reserve in the 20th century.

Therefore we cannot know.

What Hyman Minsky said is clearly irrelevant.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/s ... bubble.asp
Last edited by Valuethinker on Sun Nov 26, 2017 8:35 am, edited 1 time in total.

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by TomatoTomahto » Sun Nov 26, 2017 8:28 am

Some of Matt Levine’s ramblings on bitcoin, at https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... ndex-funds
The other reason not to trade bitcoin is that, as far as I can tell, the fate of any bitcoin exchange/wallet/bank/custodian is to be hacked. That is just how bitcoin works: You buy bitcoins on an exchange, and you store them at the exchange because it's a pain to keep your private key yourself, and then the exchange gets hacked and your bitcoins get stolen. ("There have been at least three dozen heists of cryptocurrency exchanges since 2011," Reuters noted last week.) If Goldman gets into that business -- custodying and margining and prime brokering bitcoins for clients -- then it will be a target for hackers. And perhaps it will be hacked, and its bitcoins will be stolen, and Jamie Dimon will gloat a little.

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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by oldcomputerguy » Sun Nov 26, 2017 8:40 am

Kenkat wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 1:22 am
If it makes you feel any better, I didn’t buy Bitcoin at $10 (I was aware of it as a “thing” at that price). I also didn’t buy Amazon or Google at IPO either, nor did I buy Dell or any number of other home runs. It always seems clear in retrospect, but it’s not when you are in that moment.
DW went to school with one of the Evins bunch that started Cracker Barrel. FIL could have gotten in on the ground floor, decided it was too risky. :oops:

Hindsight is 20/20. Foresight is legally blind.
Anybody know why there's a 20-pound frozen turkey up in the light grid?

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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by Olemiss540 » Sun Nov 26, 2017 8:49 am

There is some REAL money to be made on a craps table. That is my problem speculating on anything, hindsight always plays a demotivating and demoralizing factor in my emotional state. What if I would have had 10k on the table during that last roll? What if I would have sat out that weird guys roll instead of covering all of the numbers?

Just because there is money to be made does NOT make it an investment, and I can think of much more mentally healthy experiences/assets to hold for the money. Buy and hold investments in a 3 fund portfolio and splurge, gamble on things that improve your daily life or future self.

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Watty
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by Watty » Sun Nov 26, 2017 9:02 am

I'm struck by how much this sounds like people talking about Dot.com stocks on message boards in 1999.

Many people back then also saw it was a bubble, only to have the latest hot stock double again.

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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by skjoldur » Sun Nov 26, 2017 9:07 am

Kenkat wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 1:22 am
If it makes you feel any better, I didn’t buy Bitcoin at $10 (I was aware of it as a “thing” at that price). I also didn’t buy Amazon or Google at IPO either, nor did I buy Dell or any number of other home runs. It always seems clear in retrospect, but it’s not when you are in that moment.
I seriously considered buying bitcoin at ~$10. I was thinking of an investment between 10k and 100k. Hah. On the other hand, the biggest exchange at the time, which is where I probably would have purchased it, closed down in a scandal and most of the bitcoin was stolen. LOL.

Valuethinker
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by Valuethinker » Sun Nov 26, 2017 10:21 am

Watty wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 9:02 am
I'm struck by how much this sounds like people talking about Dot.com stocks on message boards in 1999.

Many people back then also saw it was a bubble, only to have the latest hot stock double again.
There's a difference.

We can only know a bubble after it has exploded. That's Efficient Financial Market theory for you.

After all, the Internet wasn't a bubble, was it? Amazon is a huge and successful business.

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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by fatlever » Sun Nov 26, 2017 10:45 am

WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:21 pm
I was sitting in a cafe a couple of months ago, I didn't buy Bitcoin when it was $4600 per Bitcoin. I even had my bank info authenticated the few days prior. I think my PC battery died and I went to the gym instead.

I don't really need the money, but I'd be lying if I said I don't feel a twinge of regret. Then again, I don't need $10K either. I was hesitating because I don't really know much about it. Thoughts?

If you're new to cryptos, I would recommend against putting a whole $10K at one time. The volatility is insane, there is a lot of manipulation -- it's the wild west. Put in a smaller amount that you can laugh off losing, dollar cost average weekly and accumulate. If you put in $10K and it drops to $5K, even if it's not that much money to you, you might panic and sell off taking your losses. If you accumulate slowly and that $10K total investment becomes $40K then a drop to $20K becomes much easier to ride out.

On the other hand here's the argument for the lump sum. I convinced my girlfriend to auto-invest $50 weekly earlier in the year and she asked me when she'll eventually have a whole Bitcoin. I said never.

The thing with Bitcoin is, you'll always have a pang of regret that you didn't get in earlier no matter when you got in and that you didn't put in enough. But if you put in "enough" it can be nerve wracking because it is so volatile.

Also Bogleheads have been calling Bitcoin a tulip and a bubble and laughing at it since 2011 when the price was $8. Check out this thread below. Nobody has a crystal ball. I don't know if Bitcoin was overvalued at $8 then or is undervalued at $9,000 now.

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=76868

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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by Tanelorn » Sun Nov 26, 2017 10:54 am

If you don't have at least $100M in regret involving bitcoin, you haven't been paying attention for the last couple years.

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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by Kenkat » Sun Nov 26, 2017 10:56 am

skjoldur wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 9:07 am
Kenkat wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 1:22 am
If it makes you feel any better, I didn’t buy Bitcoin at $10 (I was aware of it as a “thing” at that price). I also didn’t buy Amazon or Google at IPO either, nor did I buy Dell or any number of other home runs. It always seems clear in retrospect, but it’s not when you are in that moment.
I seriously considered buying bitcoin at ~$10. I was thinking of an investment between 10k and 100k. Hah. On the other hand, the biggest exchange at the time, which is where I probably would have purchased it, closed down in a scandal and most of the bitcoin was stolen. LOL.
My son started mining this thing called “Bitcoin” with his gaming computer when it was around $10. It would have been great to have put $1k or $10k into it at that time, but thinking about it realistically, it would have felt very much like flushing that money right down the toilet at the time. No one really knew what this was or what it would be used for. There was no clear safe place to keep these things or buy / sell them and I am not sure I would have held on when they hit $100 or $1000. It would have been akin to buying property from a guy on the street and accepting a handwritten deed. Felt extremely sketchy at the time.

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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by aqan » Sun Nov 26, 2017 10:59 am

I say this bubble will pop at 10K. But I’m doubting myself as I’m typing this.

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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by BolderBoy » Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:00 am

ny_rn wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 3:38 am
I bought half a bitcoin for ~ $4k and then traded it. I should have held it the Boglehead way. I also bought ethereum ~ $100. I'll hold onto that. :D
My parent's gave me $1500 of K-Mart as a BD present. Like a good BH, I held onto it...right down to a value of -0-.
"Never underestimate one's capacity to overestimate one's abilities" - The Dunning-Kruger Effect

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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by am » Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:08 am

aqan wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 10:59 am
I say this bubble will pop at 10K. But I’m doubting myself as I’m typing this.

So let’s says you ride this bubble, when do you sell? There is no PE10 to tell us how richly valued it is is. There are no profit or quarterly reports. There is always the threat of news that seems like it can be the last blow to its widespread acceptance. A dip may be the fall to 0 since there is no intrinsic value like with a share of a company.

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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by harrychan » Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:12 am

I started hearing about BTC back in 2011 when I cam across an article. As a techie, I researched ways to mine it. After a few weeks, I gave up and thought about just buying it. Back then it was roughly $1.30. I never followed through as there weren't many open markets to buy.
This is not legal or certified financial advice but you know that already.

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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by ClevrChico » Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:12 am

I'm reading about low income folks buying in now to get rich. That's a big red flag for me.

I'd much rather put $10k into an index fund.

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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by am » Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:14 am

ClevrChico wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:12 am
I'm reading about low income folks buying in now to get rich. That's a big red flag for me.
I don’t think many on here believe it’s not a bubble. You can still make money in a bubble but you gotta know when to sell. As we all know, that’s impossible.

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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by ClevrChico » Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:20 am

am wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:14 am
ClevrChico wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:12 am
I'm reading about low income folks buying in now to get rich. That's a big red flag for me.
I don’t think many on here believe it’s not a bubble. You can still make money in a bubble but you gotta know when to sell. As we all know, that’s impossible.
Yes, I agree. I follow bitcoin news closely, as it's good entertainment. It will be very interesting to see how the story ends.

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Watty
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by Watty » Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:40 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 10:21 am
Watty wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 9:02 am
I'm struck by how much this sounds like people talking about Dot.com stocks on message boards in 1999.

Many people back then also saw it was a bubble, only to have the latest hot stock double again.
There's a difference.

We can only know a bubble after it has exploded. That's Efficient Financial Market theory for you.

After all, the Internet wasn't a bubble, was it? Amazon is a huge and successful business.
The Amazon stock price dropped from over $113 in December of 1999 to less than $6 during the dot com crash. :shock:

As I recall Amazon didn't actually become profitable until after the dotcom bust, picking out Amazon from all the other companies that didn't survive was not an easy thing to do.

Many bubbles like the dot com bubble or the real estate bubble in 2007 were easy to see, but impossible to predict how long and how high it would go.

For example lots of people saw the dot com bubble as early as 1997(or before) only to have the stocks go up multiple times for several years before the crash.

Monster99
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by Monster99 » Sun Nov 26, 2017 12:44 pm

Kenkat wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 1:22 am
If it makes you feel any better, I didn’t buy Bitcoin at $10 (I was aware of it as a “thing” at that price). I also didn’t buy Amazon or Google at IPO either, nor did I buy Dell or any number of other home runs. It always seems clear in retrospect, but it’s not when you are in that moment.
+1. That was about the price I was thinking of throwing a few $k at bitcoin - but I didn't trust the exchanges.

Now where did I stash that time machine?😆

coastalinvestor
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by coastalinvestor » Sun Nov 26, 2017 1:31 pm

The Bitcoin craze fits in nicely with "Bigger Fool" theory of investing. You're buying a certain price hoping that there is a bigger fool that will buy at a higher price. It's pure speculation but I think WanderingDoc (OP) should put 10k into Bitcoin and enjoy the ride. If you're talking about having 100k liquid and the rest in conservative investments why not have a little fun. I just put my last 10k in the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares and I can sleep easily at night with that choice.

thangngo
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by thangngo » Sun Nov 26, 2017 1:38 pm

WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:21 pm
I was sitting in a cafe a couple of months ago, I didn't buy Bitcoin when it was $4600 per Bitcoin. I even had my bank info authenticated the few days prior. I think my PC battery died and I went to the gym instead.

I don't really need the money, but I'd be lying if I said I don't feel a twinge of regret. Then again, I don't need $10K either. I was hesitating because I don't really know much about it. Thoughts?
Sell everything you have now and buy bitcoin. :beer All or nothing.

need403bhelp
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by need403bhelp » Sun Nov 26, 2017 2:22 pm

thangngo wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 1:38 pm
WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:21 pm
I was sitting in a cafe a couple of months ago, I didn't buy Bitcoin when it was $4600 per Bitcoin. I even had my bank info authenticated the few days prior. I think my PC battery died and I went to the gym instead.

I don't really need the money, but I'd be lying if I said I don't feel a twinge of regret. Then again, I don't need $10K either. I was hesitating because I don't really know much about it. Thoughts?
Sell everything you have now and buy bitcoin. :beer All or nothing.
I think all in to tulip bulbs would be a better choice...

(Reading the first third [quite boring to me] of the Wall Street book finally paid off in that I am able to make this reference...)

WanderingDoc
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by WanderingDoc » Sun Nov 26, 2017 3:03 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 8:11 am
WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:21 pm
I was sitting in a cafe a couple of months ago, I didn't buy Bitcoin when it was $4600 per Bitcoin. I even had my bank info authenticated the few days prior. I think my PC battery died and I went to the gym instead.

I don't really need the money, but I'd be lying if I said I don't feel a twinge of regret. Then again, I don't need $10K either. I was hesitating because I don't really know much about it. Thoughts?
You seem to me to be the sort of person who enjoys making money and feels regret if you miss out on a trend. The unwashed masses like most here think about downside risk, but you understand that you need to take risk in order to make money.

Therefore I would encourage you to buy more cybercurrencies. This is surely only the beginning of a huge secular transformation, and you can be in on (nearly) the ground floor.
I can't tell if you are being sarcastic or serious. Given the medium of conversation we are using, I would recommend you make your points less ambiguous, if you can. Real money is riding on this and folks are making real decisions.
One day it suddenly dawned on me that I had won the real estate lottery. | I'm not looking to get rich quickly. I'm not looking to get rich slowly. I'm looking to get rich for sure.

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by TomatoTomahto » Sun Nov 26, 2017 3:19 pm

WanderingDoc, I think perhaps some of us are confused because your profession, physician, and your other path to wealth, rental real estate iirc, are both grounded in practicality and need. Bitcoin, however that adventure turns out, doesn’t seem to fit.

I’ll say something that the anti-Tesla people often say: just because ICE vehicles might eventually die, and BEV might rule, doesn’t make Tesla a buy, especially at lofty, success-assuming prices. Ditto crypto currency.

WanderingDoc
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by WanderingDoc » Sun Nov 26, 2017 3:27 pm

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 3:19 pm
WanderingDoc, I think perhaps some of us are confused because your profession, physician, and your other path to wealth, rental real estate iirc, are both grounded in practicality and need. Bitcoin, however that adventure turns out, doesn’t seem to fit.

I’ll say something that the anti-Tesla people often say: just because ICE vehicles might eventually die, and BEV might rule, doesn’t make Tesla a buy, especially at lofty, success-assuming prices. Ditto crypto currency.
You're right. I am questioning my own sensibilities. I didn't schedule myself to be on call this holiday weekend - perhaps that was a bad idea :twisted:

I went ahead and bought some Ethereum and Litecoin. That was pocket chance. I won't be a buyer of Bitcoin until (if) it drops back down to $7500. The recent runup has been to outrageous.

Two guys I follow Grant Cardone (didn't buy crypto) and Tim Ferris (bought and has said he has made a lot of money on it). The latter being more sensible, I would have pegged the reverse to be true.
One day it suddenly dawned on me that I had won the real estate lottery. | I'm not looking to get rich quickly. I'm not looking to get rich slowly. I'm looking to get rich for sure.

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FIREchief
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by FIREchief » Sun Nov 26, 2017 4:20 pm

am wrote:
Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:52 pm
WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:21 pm
I was sitting in a cafe a couple of months ago, I didn't buy Bitcoin when it was $4600 per Bitcoin. I even had my bank info authenticated the few days prior. I think my PC battery died and I went to the gym instead.

I don't really need the money, but I'd be lying if I said I don't feel a twinge of regret. Then again, I don't need $10K either. I was hesitating because I don't really know much about it. Thoughts?

Don’t feel bad. In the future, you could actually tell people that you lived through the bubble unlike many of the others of the past 300-400 years. Think how ridiculous it sounds to trade a code generated coin that has no intrinsic value and little practical use. People will wonder how could anyone pay 8k a coin for something like this? At some point this will be realized and it will be another one for those bubble chapters in the investing books.
At least tulip bulbs were highly likely to grow into nice looking/smelling flowers!
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.

supaflix
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by supaflix » Sun Nov 26, 2017 4:30 pm

am wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:14 am
ClevrChico wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:12 am
I'm reading about low income folks buying in now to get rich. That's a big red flag for me.
I don’t think many on here believe it’s not a bubble. You can still make money in a bubble but you gotta know when to sell. As we all know, that’s impossible.
Sentiment regarding bitcoin on this forum and other investment forums like seeking alpha is overwhelmingly negative. I would expect more exuberance before calling a bubble top.

fatlever
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Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Post by fatlever » Sun Nov 26, 2017 5:13 pm

ClevrChico wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:12 am
I'm reading about low income folks buying in now to get rich. That's a big red flag for me.
  1. Bitcoin@ $100 tech geeks buying
  2. Bitcoin @ $5,000 poor and dumb buying
  3. Bitcoin @ $25,000 packaged in an ETF, smart and savvy investors buying

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