Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

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TheTimeLord
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Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by TheTimeLord » Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:26 pm

I may be the only person in the world that feels this way but I need to express this emotion. I am just tired (maybe even exhausted by) of the stock market going up. The constant flow of gains makes me feel like I need to do something (change my AA, take some off the table, increase my equities, reduce my exposure, rebalance, buy more international, buy small cap, buy value, sell large cap growth) every week. Plus I never feel like I got lucky because I caught a 5-10% pullback when I buy my shares of VTI. While I have kept myself between the rails on my Plan, I essentially feel like I am getting paranoid waiting for a shoe to drop. Things are just going too well for investors, my mind won't accept it. I look at the change in my portfolio value YTD and my mind tells something is about to happen this is just too much of a good thing. Just worn out from telling myself to stand there and do nothing. There I said it and I feel better for it.
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cinghiale
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by cinghiale » Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:37 pm

This doesn’t sound like “tired.”

Stressed, maybe?
Wary?
Agitated?
Unsure?

Each of these negatives could be stated as positives. I don’t think there would be much support here on the forum for making investment moves based on intuition or gut feeling, but maybe you are working with one of those kinds of moments.
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by mickeyd » Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:39 pm

essentially feel like I am getting paranoid waiting for a shoe to drop.
Here's an idea that may drive you nuts for a while, but it works for me~ Don't read the financial paper, stay away from CNBC, don't go online to "peak" at your numbers. Try it for a week, then 2 weeks, a month, a quarter etc.

After a while you'll feel better and realize that you probably have the proper AA for the long-run and then go back to sleep.
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by hightower » Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:41 pm

I feel pretty similar. In fact, I just moved a small percentage of my portfolio to cash for this reason (3-4%). You have to keep your AA in a place where you feel comfortable. For me, I felt too exposed to equities and wanted to know I had some cash on hand for the next correction. I still left the vast majority of my portfolio alone, but now I know that even with a big decline, I'll have at least some cash on hand to buy back in during a dip. I'll also be able to keep earning and contributing to ride the wave back up.
Since I've never lived through a major correction with any skin in the game, I am also kind of anxious to just see how it's going to affect me. I think my current allocation will be okay with me, but I won't know until it happens. I'm currently approximately 70/30.

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by abuss368 » Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:45 pm

We have been buying bonds nonstop as the stocks keep increasing in order to balance our investment portfolio. That is fine and somewhat a peace of mind as when the next pullback starts, there will be bonds available to rebalance into stocks.
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bligh
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by bligh » Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:50 pm

I have been feeling something similar I suppose, like I wish the correction would go ahead and come already, or at least the stock market would either stay flat or go up less steeply, so that the ominous "correction/bear market" is less severe.

I know it is nothing like it, but in my head I would describe it sort of like the fear of an earthquake. You know the stress is constantly building under you, and the longer you go without a few little ones, the bigger "the big one" is going to be when it does hit.

I am glad to see the gains in my portfolio ofcourse, but I remain skeptical of how "real" they are.. I suppose this is why they call this the most hated bull market in history? Perhaps the steep decline of 2007 followed by an incredibly swift recovery in the market did not allow us enough time to feel comfortable enjoying the returns of this bull market? I remember the years prior to 2000 and 2007 were filled with such confidence and optimism, this feels so very different.
Last edited by bligh on Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by nedsaid » Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:52 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:26 pm
I may be the only person in the world that feels this way but I need to express this emotion. I am just tired (maybe even exhausted by) of the stock market going up. The constant flow of gains makes me feel like I need to do something (change my AA, take some off the table, increase my equities, reduce my exposure, rebalance, buy more international, buy small cap, buy value, sell large cap growth) every week. Plus I never feel like I got lucky because I caught a 5-10% pullback when I buy my shares of VTI. While I have kept myself between the rails on my Plan, I essentially feel like I am getting paranoid waiting for a shoe to drop. Things are just going too well for investors, my mind won't accept it. I look at the change in my portfolio value YTD and my mind tells something is about to happen this is just too much of a good thing. Just worn out from telling myself to stand there and do nothing. There I said it and I feel better for it.
Today, I did another wave (or ripple) of mild rebalancing. Selling US Stock funds and the proceeds going into US Bonds and International Stocks. I have been doing this since July 2013. A big reason that I did this were my regrets during the 2008-2009 bear market and financial crisis for not having rebalanced. I am at about 66 1/2% stocks now, if I had not performed my program of mild rebalancing, I would probably be at about 75% now.

So no, I don't think you are crazy. You are thinking as an investor should. What I would advise you to do is to rebalance your portfolio if you haven't done so already. And yes, maybe you should take a bit off the top. The thing is, you have agonized and agonized over a decision of whether to retire or not. Your gut might be telling you that your stock allocation is just too high. As valuations go up, future expected returns go down. Your risk of mean reversion in the markets increases while your future potential returns decrease.

"Stay the course" too often means drifting. With a rising stock market, your risks drift higher and higher too. At the very least, rebalance. Seeing that you are on the cusp of retirement, you might also want to consider further de-risking.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by midareff » Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:54 pm

Have become quite skeptical myself with the Shiller >31.5 as of late. Start my RMD next year which is right around the corner and have been realigning things for simplicity and re-balancing my AA to the more conservative state it was at the beginning of the year, and across accounts. It feels like a disaster any day or couple of days it doesn't go up more but this can't last 4 ever, and the reversal will be much more painful than the joy of the increases.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by TheTimeLord » Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:54 pm

cinghiale wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:37 pm
This doesn’t sound like “tired.”

Stressed, maybe?
Wary?
Agitated?
Unsure?

Each of these negatives could be stated as positives. I don’t think there would be much support here on the forum for making investment moves based on intuition or gut feeling, but maybe you are working with one of those kinds of moments.
What negatives, my stress and fatigue comes from things going too well and knowing that it won't last forever because it is never different this time. It essentially like Mr. Bogle predicting that returns will be muted going forward because of how robust returns have been. Same thing, he sees thing not being as good in the near term future (next 10 years) because they have been so good in the recent past.
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nedsaid
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by nedsaid » Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:57 pm

My take is that many of us have a Puritanical streak. When things go well, or seemingly too well, we feel guilty. As for myself, I don't feel guilty but I do feel a bit nervous. But then again, these strong bull markets are the whole reason that we invest in the first place.
Last edited by nedsaid on Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by TheTimeLord » Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:57 pm

midareff wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:54 pm
Have become quite skeptical myself with the Shiller >31.5 as of late. Start my RMD next year which is right around the corner and have been realigning things for simplicity and re-balancing my AA to the more conservative state it was at the beginning of the year, and across accounts. It feels like a disaster any day or couple of days it doesn't go up more but this can't last 4 ever, and the reversal will be much more painful than the joy of the increases.
I know, what it last week or the week before we were down for the week and you start thinking, is this it, are we finally going to have a correction.
Run, You Clever Boy!

goingup
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by goingup » Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:59 pm

I feel like the lack of volatility is lulling investors into believing that the stock market is "safe". The next correction is going to surprise some folks.

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by warner25 » Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:00 pm

I feel you. I'd say it's kind of like getting served more dessert around this time of year. With all the Thanksgiving pies and Christmas cookies, there's just too much to eat at one time. I won't say I get sick of it, but there is such a thing as too much, and I wish it were spread a little more evenly throughout the year.

Bligh's analogy is better.

We reduced our already conservative stock allocation by about 5% this year. The rise has also helped me justify some additional spending, including a new car. We were probably going to make those purchases anyway, but it felt better (irrationally or not) to tell myself that spending the money now is maybe like selling high and taking some profits.

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by magneto » Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:07 pm

This Bull Market has certainly seemed to have lasted an extraordinary long time.
Valuations for individual holdings we find are nearly all within 10% of, or above historic ceilings.
When will it end? - Nobody can judge surely!
Much has shifted from risk to defensives in our portfolio; and that process is likely to continue if the market surprises us all and climbs seriously ever further.
The continuing shift to defensives, a la Ben Graham, helps us sleep nights.
Patience and a Plan.
Last edited by magneto on Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by munemaker » Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:10 pm

goingup wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:59 pm
I feel like the lack of volatility is lulling investors into believing that the stock market is "safe".
Some investors, maybe. I feel like we are sitting on a powder keg that will eventually blow up. Still, I am staying the course in accordance with my plan.

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by Abe » Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:14 pm

No...
Slow and steady wins the race.

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snackdog
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by snackdog » Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:22 pm

What if the bull run continued ten more years?

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by Sandtrap » Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:26 pm

Do you mean . . . . Up and up and up while watching opportunity costs go by and go by while rebalancing in low yielding boring bonds. . . while some that are 90-100% in equities rake it in?

Do you mean sitting idly by instead of investing in a bull market that might last at least another 4 to 8 years?

Do you mean feeling like watching everyone cleaning out the candy store while sitting on a bench with a pocket full of cash (bonds)?
Last edited by Sandtrap on Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by rgs92 » Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:27 pm

My portfolio generates about the same income from interest and dividends all the time (and maybe goes up gradually) regardless of the market value of the underlying securities.

That's what the portfolio is for, generating income. So I rationalize that I can happily ignore the market, up or down.

Edit: and the companies are adding profits as retained earnings to their balance sheets, and I theoretically own a piece of that, so that's even more of an unseen build-up of cash for me.

And the bonds/stable value/CDs are reinvesting interest as a virtuous cycle of compounding, also a great thing.

So all will be well even with a correction (or even a crash). So I sleep well. Don't worry, be happy.
Last edited by rgs92 on Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by Mel Lindauer » Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:29 pm

There's an old saying that "The market climbs a wall of worry." And unharnessed exuberance by the masses seems to be a sure-fire market killer (as in the previous "tech wreck").

Revisit and rebalance back to your desired "sleep-at-night" asset allocation and then ignore the market gyrations. It will go up and it will go down, but historically the trend has been up over the longer term.

Go have some fun.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by TheTimeLord » Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:31 pm

snackdog wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:22 pm
What if the bull run continued ten more years?
I would make a ton of money while being stressed out and have lived to see the longest Bull market in U.S. history.
Run, You Clever Boy!

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by youngpleb » Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:35 pm

I'm tired of seeing it go up, because I'm just getting into my career and investing. A crash is probably the best thing that could happen at this point for me :mrgreen:

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TheTimeLord
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by TheTimeLord » Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:40 pm

Sandtrap wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:26 pm
Do you mean . . . . Up and up and up while watching opportunity costs go by and go by while rebalancing in low yielding boring bonds. . . while some that are 90-100% in equities rake it in?

Do you mean sitting idly by instead of investing in a bull market that might last at least another 4 to 8 years?

Do you mean feeling like watching everyone cleaning out the candy store while sitting on a bench with a pocket full of cash (bonds)?
Nope that's not it, on track for my portfolio to easily increase by the largest absolute dollar amount ever this year. Just unsettled by the markets lack of volatility and amazing number of new highs.
Run, You Clever Boy!

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TheTimeLord
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by TheTimeLord » Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:43 pm

Mel Lindauer wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:29 pm
There's an old saying that "The market climbs a wall of worry." And unharnessed exuberance by the masses seems to be a sure-fire market killer (as in the previous "tech wreck").

Revisit and rebalance back to your desired "sleep-at-night" asset allocation and then ignore the market gyrations. It will go up and it will go down, but historically the trend has been up over the longer term.

Go have some fun.
One of my favorite and most profitable investing axioms. As long as there is some to worry about there is the potential, possibly the probability, of a positive surprise. Seriously, I really miss buying the dips.
Run, You Clever Boy!

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by midareff » Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:52 pm

munemaker wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:10 pm
goingup wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:59 pm
I feel like the lack of volatility is lulling investors into believing that the stock market is "safe".
Some investors, maybe. I feel like we are sitting on a powder keg that will eventually blow up. Still, I am staying the course in accordance with my plan.
A correction to either the mean or median wold be extremely painful for many or most.

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by Sandtrap » Fri Nov 24, 2017 3:06 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:43 pm
Mel Lindauer wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:29 pm
There's an old saying that "The market climbs a wall of worry." And unharnessed exuberance by the masses seems to be a sure-fire market killer (as in the previous "tech wreck").

Revisit and rebalance back to your desired "sleep-at-night" asset allocation and then ignore the market gyrations. It will go up and it will go down, but historically the trend has been up over the longer term.

Go have some fun.
One of my favorite and most profitable investing axioms. As long as there is some to worry about there is the potential, possibly the probability, of a positive surprise. Seriously, I really miss buying the dips.
The same thing has happened in Real Estate income property. Where's the dip?

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by chevca » Fri Nov 24, 2017 3:19 pm

Abe wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:14 pm
No...
Same here.

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by Wakefield1 » Fri Nov 24, 2017 3:20 pm

I am certainly tired of watching houses/nice places to live going up.
My suspicion is that in the last 2 or 3 years the house prices have gone up so much that the stock market chasing them can't keep up.
I am in a relatives/responsibility/cooking/taking people to their doctors situation that requires that I not get out and about(for myself) much at all,about 3 years ago I was looking(on the Internet,not there in person!but at a location that I have ran past many times in years gone by) at a house for sale along the Old Dominion Run course (very attractive to me,I was fantasizing about being able to live there and forget all of my responsibilities) for less than 150 K,I bet that thing if now for sale would be at over 200 K. Great times on that Run Course,especially back in 1990.
Last edited by Wakefield1 on Fri Nov 24, 2017 4:40 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by MoonOrb » Fri Nov 24, 2017 3:21 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:26 pm
The constant flow of gains makes me feel like I need to do something (change my AA, take some off the table, increase my equities, reduce my exposure, rebalance, buy more international, buy small cap, buy value, sell large cap growth) every week.
Check the market once every three months instead of daily or weekly.

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by grettman » Fri Nov 24, 2017 3:47 pm

I’m paying down my mortgage because I want to be debt free and with the market keep going up....why not hedge a little... I am also buying into my c,s, and I funds in TSP. I figure if I do both, I can’t do too bad...

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by Dottie57 » Fri Nov 24, 2017 3:54 pm

I am quite happy with things as they are. Better than 2008 when I thought retirement was down the drain.
Asset allocation is pretty good for the long haul.

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by staythecourse » Fri Nov 24, 2017 4:02 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:26 pm
I look at the change in my portfolio value YTD and my mind tells something is about to happen this is just too much of a good thing. Just worn out from telling myself to stand there and do nothing.
I think you spend too much time thinking about your portfolio. I'm being serious. I have said forever the key to being a GREAT investor vs. a good investor is getting to the point of Financial Indifference (used to call it Financial Malaise, but was corrected that is not the correct usage of the word malaise). That is the point where you just don't care about what the markets are doing. I reached that a couple of years ago (very early in my investing life). I didn't even know how the markets were doing for the year until earlier today when I saw the thread about increasing international equities and looked it up.

I have literally no clue what any asset class is doing at any one time. All I know and care about is which asset class is lagging in relation to the others to put new money into every month to have it even up on my yellow legal pad I keep track of. NO WHERE on there does it show what the performance is for they year.

I think you need to work on getting to that point. Heck, I wouldn't know if we were it was a good day or not except for the update of the "US stocks in freefall" thread.

Good luck.
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by flyingaway » Fri Nov 24, 2017 4:15 pm

I actually would like to see a correction, so that we know the inevitable has come and we can retire relaxed, knowing that we are not on market top any more.

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by SGM » Fri Nov 24, 2017 4:17 pm

If I were still in the accumulating mode I would welcome the stock market going down. Any dividends I am not spending I am mostly putting into bond funds. It does not bother me that the market continues to rise. We are spending a lot of money these days on maintenance and house improvements from these new found stock gains. I am not going to stop spending anytime soon. We are retired and not down sizing, but moving into a bigger home that is very comfortable. We are trying to spend ourselves into a lower tax bracket. :wink: It's just a joke buddies.

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by bantam222 » Fri Nov 24, 2017 4:18 pm

It’s been a little harder to stay motivated at work when many mornings I wake up and see I’ve already made 3-4x my daily wage in the stock market

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Fri Nov 24, 2017 5:11 pm

As I am oh so close to retirement, NO! I like it. I like it a lot.
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by ruralavalon » Fri Nov 24, 2017 5:12 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:31 pm
snackdog wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:22 pm
What if the bull run continued ten more years?
I would make a ton of money while being stressed out and have lived to see the longest Bull market in U.S. history.
And I will have completely dodged the dreaded sequence of returns risk :D .

I retired January 2011, so that would be 17 years of bull market at the start of my retirement.

I could easily tolerate 10 more years of wondering when the shoe will drop.
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by oldcomputerguy » Fri Nov 24, 2017 5:14 pm

It is what it is. I did recently hit a rebalance point, so I rebalanced out of stocks into bonds and back to my AA. I really don’t feel any inclination to do anything else.
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by TheTimeLord » Fri Nov 24, 2017 5:21 pm

Arggggh, VTI up another 0.23% and VXUS up 0.53%. At least the S&P 500 made it through a round number, closing at 2602.42.
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by Doom&Gloom » Fri Nov 24, 2017 5:30 pm

Nope. I am enjoying the ride while realizing that I really would not like the alternative. (No longer accumulating)

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TheTimeLord
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by TheTimeLord » Fri Nov 24, 2017 5:32 pm

oldcomputerguy wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 5:14 pm
It is what it is. I did recently hit a rebalance point, so I rebalanced out of stocks into bonds and back to my AA. I really don’t feel any inclination to do anything else.
VTI is up 17.62% ytd, VXUS is up 25.41% ytd and as a bonus VGT is up 27.83% plus all the tilts people have. A year like this in equities has me re-evaluating what I might be possible in retirement. I don't want to exaggerate and call it "life changing" because its not but the gains plus this year's contribution have made a pretty meaningful difference in the value of my portfolio. So I am probably holding on a little tighter than normal and it tough not to take some extra off the table.

FWIW, the 8 figure BHs should be siting on another million or two or more even with a conservative AA. Same for some of the high 7 figure guys. It seems to me that those kinds of gains should give people some new possibilities.
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by Fallible » Fri Nov 24, 2017 5:52 pm

If you have invested properly based on your need, ability, and willingness (how much you can afford to lose) to take risk, then your worry should not be with the market, but with your self-discipline to continue staying the course. So think about ways to bolster that discipline, such as suggestions here to ignore the market or, as I do, try some benign neglect. That means focusing on something more important in your life than a stock market.
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by bhsince87 » Fri Nov 24, 2017 5:59 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 5:32 pm


FWIW, the 8 figure BHs should be siting on another million or two or more even with a conservative AA. Same for some of the high 7 figure guys. It seems to me that those kinds of gains should give people some new possibilities.
I'm not close to the 8 figure crowd. But yes, it's made a huge difference for us. As I mentioned elsewhere, I almost took a retirement package two years ago. We would have had about 30-35 X annual expenses, but the timing just didn't seem right. I was only 50.

But if they offer one this year, we're now at 60-70X expenses. Part of that is another $400k+ in salaries. But a larger part is market gains.

We're considering some retirement choices now that would have been unthinkable a few years ago!
BH87

EnjoyIt
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by EnjoyIt » Fri Nov 24, 2017 6:16 pm

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 5:11 pm
As I am oh so close to retirement, NO! I like it. I like it a lot.
That is what is so stressful we are so close to our 25x. This years returns plus contributions was a nice boost. But, I would rather retire a few years after a bear market as opposed to the tail end of a bull market. I hope a correction never happens, but, a correction is inevitable and I would rather have it now as opposed to right after I retire.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by TheTimeLord » Fri Nov 24, 2017 6:19 pm

bhsince87 wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 5:59 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 5:32 pm


FWIW, the 8 figure BHs should be siting on another million or two or more even with a conservative AA. Same for some of the high 7 figure guys. It seems to me that those kinds of gains should give people some new possibilities.
I'm not close to the 8 figure crowd. But yes, it's made a huge difference for us. As I mentioned elsewhere, I almost took a retirement package two years ago. We would have had about 30-35 X annual expenses, but the timing just didn't seem right. I was only 50.

But if they offer one this year, we're now at 60-70X expenses. Part of that is another $400k+ in salaries. But a larger part is market gains.

We're considering some retirement choices now that would have been unthinkable a few years ago!
You see and that for me makes me want to hold on a bit tighter, I don't want to give those possibilities up because of a bear market, not really concerned about a correction.
Run, You Clever Boy!

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TheTimeLord
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by TheTimeLord » Fri Nov 24, 2017 6:32 pm

Fallible wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 5:52 pm
If you have invested properly based on your need, ability, and willingness (how much you can afford to lose) to take risk, then your worry should not be with the market, but with your self-discipline to continue staying the course. So think about ways to bolster that discipline, such as suggestions here to ignore the market or, as I do, try some benign neglect. That means focusing on something more important in your life than a stock market.
I guess my response would be that the outsized gains we have experience in 2 of the last 3 years have skewed the numbers well beyond my original plan. Even if equities fell 40% I am well above my original number. With the market just going up and up and up there really hasn't been time to absorb what that means or to even reset expectations. Occasionally I ponder the question if I thought I would use a certain AA if I achieve my original number that would have meant I would have had X dollars in equities, so do I really need more equities than that. But then I think yeah, but that also means I thought I only needed Y dollars in Fixed Income, so do I really need more Fixed Income than that. Stupid quandary I know, but what do you do when you find money. My AA worked with that number now I am trying to figure out what to be targeting now because both my need for risk and security have decreased not to mention I am almost at my 3 OMY which has saved me a ton of expenses to add on top of that.
Run, You Clever Boy!

EnjoyIt
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by EnjoyIt » Fri Nov 24, 2017 6:33 pm

bhsince87 wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 5:59 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 5:32 pm


FWIW, the 8 figure BHs should be siting on another million or two or more even with a conservative AA. Same for some of the high 7 figure guys. It seems to me that those kinds of gains should give people some new possibilities.
I'm not close to the 8 figure crowd. But yes, it's made a huge difference for us. As I mentioned elsewhere, I almost took a retirement package two years ago. We would have had about 30-35 X annual expenses, but the timing just didn't seem right. I was only 50.

But if they offer one this year, we're now at 60-70X expenses. Part of that is another $400k+ in salaries. But a larger part is market gains.

We're considering some retirement choices now that would have been unthinkable a few years ago!
I don't suppose you mind sharing with us what some of those possibilities are? Feel free to PM me if you are still willing to share but not so openly. I am very curious if anything can pertain to our own life and make me question our current path.

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paul e
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by paul e » Fri Nov 24, 2017 6:37 pm

With the big runup in the market, with all this talk about taking some off the top, what about capital gains taxes?

Here's a nice paper on how to more efficiently balance one's portfolio:

https://www.vanguard.com/pdf/icrpr.pdf
Last edited by paul e on Fri Nov 24, 2017 6:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.

RadAudit
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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by RadAudit » Fri Nov 24, 2017 6:40 pm

Yes. Seventh year in retirement.

This constant rebalancing from stocks in to bonds every year or so when I hit the upper limit on my bands is about to wear me out.
TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 5:32 pm
A year like this in equities has me re-evaluating what I might be possible in retirement. I don't want to exaggerate and call it "life changing" because its not but the gains plus this year's contribution have made a pretty meaningful difference in the value of my portfolio.
Definitely a first world problem. I had this problem - or at least a plan for a really good vacation - in early 1999 when I was getting close to my number. As I recall, something happened later that year that fixed that concern for about five or so years and then something else happened. :happy

Wishing you the best of luck whatever you decide.
FI is the best revenge. LBYM. Invest the rest. Stay the course.

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Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Post by AlohaJoe » Fri Nov 24, 2017 6:45 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:52 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:26 pm
I am just tired (maybe even exhausted by) of the stock market going up. [...] Just worn out from telling myself to stand there and do nothing.
So no, I don't think you are crazy. You are thinking as an investor should.
I disagree 100%. This behaviour is completely crazy and not something an investor should do. As Warren Buffett has said, "You don't need a lot of brains to be in this business. What you do need is emotional stability." TheTimeLord lacks emotional stability. Someone is exhausted not because of lack of sleep from a crying infant or running a marathon but because some numbers went up just like they do every year in history. I mean, it has only been 18 months since the last market crash but that's long enough to turn someone into this state? That's not normal and it isn't how investors should think.

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