Vanguard on 2018

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my name
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Vanguard on 2018

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https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/21/vanguar ... s-low.html

EXCERPT: Vanguard's outlook does match the view of company founder Bogle, who this week told CNBC that stocks would generate returns in the range of 4 percent in the future.

Where Vanguard now parts ways with Bogle is over the benefits of overseas investing, an approach Bogle has only ever begrudgingly considered. Bogle continues to believe U.S. stocks are the best long-term bet, but in its outlook, Vanguard says expected returns for the U.S. stock market are lower than those for international markets.
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bigROI
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Re: Vanguard on 2018

Post by bigROI »

Or more, or less
flip a coin, gamble...
or just diversify and allocate/re-balance according to risk per IPS - don't get excited
how well did they do for predictions for 2017?
A penny saved is much more then a penny earned when you consider the tax/SS/medicare cut.
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Artsdoctor
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Re: Vanguard on 2018

Post by Artsdoctor »

Vanguard has been calling for muted returns for at least the past year. What's the worst thing that can happen: you're going to save more and really watch investment expenses. There are worse investment mistakes you can make.

The international debate used to hold a lot more merit because it was just so expensive to invest internationally. That's no longer the case. Overall, diversification is acknowledged to have some merit and reduce risk. It would make sense that broadening diversification to include international exposure has some advantages but international equities had been lagging so the argument has been falling on a lot of deaf ears.
rkhusky
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Re: Vanguard on 2018

Post by rkhusky »

YTD: Total Stock Market +18%, Total International +25%
1-Year: Total Stock Market +24%, Total International +24%

Anyone who predicted muted returns for 2017 was way off.
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Tycoon
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Re: Vanguard on 2018

Post by Tycoon »

rkhusky wrote: Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:58 am YTD: Total Stock Market +18%, Total International +25%
1-Year: Total Stock Market +24%, Total International +24%

Anyone who predicted muted returns for 2017 was way off.
Very telling. Predictions are hard.
Emotionless, prognostication free investing. Ignoring the noise and economists since 1979. Getting rich off of "smart people's" behavioral mistakes.
EFF_fan81
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Re: Vanguard on 2018

Post by EFF_fan81 »

Tycoon wrote: Wed Nov 22, 2017 8:08 am
rkhusky wrote: Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:58 am YTD: Total Stock Market +18%, Total International +25%
1-Year: Total Stock Market +24%, Total International +24%

Anyone who predicted muted returns for 2017 was way off.
Very telling. Predictions are hard.
If there are high returns for a long period of time it is reasonable to anticipate muted returns thereafter, but nobody can tell when or how those muted returns will begin, how muted they will be or how long the period of low (or negative) returns can last. So we stay the course...
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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: Vanguard on 2018

Post by Earl Lemongrab »

Tycoon wrote: Wed Nov 22, 2017 8:08 am Predictions are hard.
<yogi>Especially about the future!</yogi>
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TheTimeLord
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Re: Vanguard on 2018

Post by TheTimeLord »

rkhusky wrote: Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:58 am YTD: Total Stock Market +18%, Total International +25%
1-Year: Total Stock Market +24%, Total International +24%

Anyone who predicted muted returns for 2017 was way off.
Vanguard annual outlook on stocks

2012: 6%–9%
2013: 6%–9%
2014: Bottom of 6%–9% range
2015: 5% to 8%
2016: 6% to 8% range
2017: 5% to 8% range
2018: 4% to 6% range
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
SimplicityNow
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Re: Vanguard on 2018

Post by SimplicityNow »

Nobody knows nothing!
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Artsdoctor
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Re: Vanguard on 2018

Post by Artsdoctor »

rkhusky wrote: Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:58 am YTD: Total Stock Market +18%, Total International +25%
1-Year: Total Stock Market +24%, Total International +24%

Anyone who predicted muted returns for 2017 was way off.
I don't think that anyone seriously predicted 2017 returns. When Vanguard or others start discussing "muted returns going forward," they're usually talking about the next decade. Think in term of average returns over the long haul.

I agree that I would ignore anyone trying to guess what might be in store for markets over the next several months.
Grt2bOutdoors
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Re: Vanguard on 2018

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

SimplicityNow wrote: Wed Nov 22, 2017 4:33 pm Nobody knows nothing!
+1
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Call_Me_Op
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Re: Vanguard on 2018

Post by Call_Me_Op »

I found Jack's comments on ETF's interesting, where he compared index funds with ETF's. I assume that he was comparing all index funds versus all ETF's - not comparing by asset class. His comparison is really apples versus oranges.
Best regards, -Op | | "In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity." Einstein
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