International Returns this month

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DoctorB
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International Returns this month

Post by DoctorB »

So with all the hype about a supposedly synchronized global economy, why have my vanguard international index fund positions declined to the point where nearly all my recent gains from the summer are practically erased? Trying to not regret my 25% international allocation; mostly VIAIX but also the European Index (VEUSX), the actively managed international growth (VWIGX), and the dividend ETFs in my IRA (VIGI & VYMI). Is it simply due to the strengthening dollar, and it will eventually come back up, or could there be bigger issues going on not being talked about in the media with FANG getting all the attention?
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triceratop
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Re: International Returns this month

Post by triceratop »

Why are you concerned with month to month returns? Your asset allocation should be set for time periods much longer. This is just noise in the context of long term returns.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."
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TimeRunner
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Re: International Returns this month

Post by TimeRunner »

Why worry about this - invest in Vanguard VT and be done. Up more than 17% YTD. No rebalancing required. Go windsurf or something.
One cannot enlighten the unconscious. | "All I need are some tasty waves, a cool buzz, and I'm fine." -Jeff Spicoli
lack_ey
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Re: International Returns this month

Post by lack_ey »

Wait, what are you even looking at?

Image
http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D

The dollar is down several percentage points against a lot of these currencies this year, sure. This month in particular I think it's actually reversed slightly.
AlohaJoe
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Re: International Returns this month

Post by AlohaJoe »

lack_ey wrote: Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:56 pm Wait, what are you even looking at?
That's what I was wondering....International is still up 22% year-to-date. And the returns this month are +1.57%.
Topic Author
DoctorB
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Re: International Returns this month

Post by DoctorB »

Hence my question has been about the past month; could the tide be turning?
lack_ey
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Re: International Returns this month

Post by lack_ey »

It's about flat this month and only a couple percent off the peak mid-month, still a few or several percent higher than the start of the summer. A couple percent happens all the time, typically many times a year.

Even if you're looking at the usual trend indicators to the degree any might be slightly predictive on average, those should be up. The tide could always be turning regardless. And what are you even doing asking mostly non-market timing believers or previously failed market timers?
noco-hawkeye
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Re: International Returns this month

Post by noco-hawkeye »

One month does not make a "change in tide". You'll only see the change in tide in hindsight, not ahead of time.
letsgobobby
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Re: International Returns this month

Post by letsgobobby »

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chevca
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Re: International Returns this month

Post by chevca »

DoctorB wrote: Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:42 pm So with all the hype about a supposedly synchronized global economy, why have my vanguard international index fund positions declined to the point where nearly all my recent gains from the summer are practically erased?
Now that we have determined it's just been flat, but even still positive, for a month, can you explain to us why you think your gains from the summer were erased?
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stemikger
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Re: International Returns this month

Post by stemikger »

Don't you hold it for the diversification? I don't hold it at all because John Bogle makes a great case for not needing it, but month to month returns should not matter whether for or against it. . . or it really doesn't matter much. I never held it and in the long term, I don't think it will really matter.
Choose Simplicity ~ Stay the Course!! ~ Press on Regardless!!!
harvestbook
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Re: International Returns this month

Post by harvestbook »

I don't know much but I'm 100 percent certain there is absolutely nothing about markets that "is not being talked about" by the financial media, including stuff that's not even there.
I'm not smart enough to know, and I can't afford to guess.
jebmke
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Re: International Returns this month

Post by jebmke »

I agree with other comments above. If your investing horizon is measured in months, you shouldn't be invested in stocks. I've been invested for 30+ years -- and with a little luck, I may only be half way. Stocks are for investment horizons that are measured in decades, not months or even years.
Stay hydrated; don't sweat the small stuff
deltaneutral83
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Re: International Returns this month

Post by deltaneutral83 »

DoctorB wrote: Thu Oct 26, 2017 10:40 pm Hence my question has been about the past month; could the tide be turning?
To have any desire to invest and make a post about a particular month for a particular portion of your AA is alarming to say the least. This was mentioned directly after your initial post probably by smarter people than I. The tide turning(?) well, maybe, and maybe isn't actionable. Getting a firm grip on what you want as an AA is the only thing to iron out.
visualguy
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Re: International Returns this month

Post by visualguy »

The long-term record of ex-US index investment shows significant underperformance, so I stay away from it, but if you decided you like it for some reason, then not sure why you should change your mind based on last month. It's the disappointing performance over many decades that should alarm you, not the last month.
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Tyler Aspect
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Re: International Returns this month

Post by Tyler Aspect »

I can share the experience of my mother's friend who checks her fund returns everyday. Every other day she would observe a downturn in her fund's net asset value and realized that "she lost money again". She complained to me about her bad fund, but the problem comes from checking the result of fund performance too often.

I suggested to her that she should limit checking fund performance to once every three months. Sometimes I think I should do the same thing because I might be susceptible to "I lost money again" syndrome too.
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triceratop
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Re: International Returns this month

Post by triceratop »

visualguy wrote: Fri Oct 27, 2017 9:30 am The long-term record of ex-US index investment shows significant underperformance, so I stay away from it, but if you decided you like it for some reason, then not sure why you should change your mind based on last month. It's the disappointing performance over many decades that should alarm you, not the last month.
Without opening a can of worms, the same is true of US index underperformance relative to South African and Australian equities markets.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."
freebeer
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Re: International Returns this month

Post by freebeer »

DoctorB wrote: Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:42 pm ...my 25% international allocation; mostly VIAIX but also the European Index (VEUSX), the actively managed international growth (VWIGX), and the dividend ETFs in my IRA (VIGI & VYMI)...
What is the rationale for your overall tilts in international vs. a market-weight exposure like Total International? In another post you mentioned emerging markets, do you tilt there also?

As I see it, you seem to have a narrower than the overall market portfolio in international so therefore it should be expected to be higher volatility . As such if you are going to get worried at minor day-to-day fluctuations it may not be a great idea for you even if there is a rationale for it.
chevca
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Re: International Returns this month

Post by chevca »

The OP also has a thread going about timing the bond market and the bond bubble.

We have some work to do, but we can do it! :happy
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goingup
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Re: International Returns this month

Post by goingup »

Tyler Aspect wrote: Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:19 am I can share the experience of my mother's friend who checks her fund returns everyday. Every other day she would observe a downturn in her fund's net asset value and realized that "she lost money again". She complained to me about her bad fund, but the problem comes from checking the result of fund performance too often.

I suggested to her that she should limit checking fund performance to once every three months. Sometimes I think I should do the same thing because I might be susceptible to "I lost money again" syndrome too.
You gave your mom's friend good advice. Larry Swedroe has written about "myopic loss aversion" and why frequently checking your portfolio can be a bad thing. http://www.etf.com/sections/index-inves ... nopaging=1 I look almost every day and I think it's a bad habit. When the market starts sagging, I'll stop checking so frequently.
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