If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u say?

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fantasytensai
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If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u say?

Post by fantasytensai » Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:09 pm

I know this is a ridiculous hypo, but if someone held a gun to your head, and force you to pick if the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, if you win you live, which would you choose?

I know this doesn't appear relevant to this thread, but it will actually help me solve a problem with my personal investments. So thank you in advance for helping to answer this ridiculous question!

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by onthecusp » Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:13 pm

Market Timing at its worst. :shock:
I would tell the person with the gun to choose for me.

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by GeraniumLover » Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:14 pm

It will rise. Historically, it has risen more days than it has fallen, and, although historical results can't be counted on to repeat themselves, it is the best there is to go on.

PS I assume the gun is loaded and if you choose wrong, you will die

cadreamer2015
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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by cadreamer2015 » Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:15 pm

Is this actionable?
De gustibus non est disputandum

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flamesabers
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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by flamesabers » Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:16 pm

Why not just flip a coin?
cadreamer2015 wrote:
Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:15 pm
Is this actionable?
Apparently OP has an unspecified problem with his/her personal investments.

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by alex_686 » Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:16 pm

The stock market averages up so I would bet up, so the market skews up. However it does have a fat tail. When it goes down it really goes down. So average would be up but there would be huge error bars for a 1 day prediction. Over 10 years the error bars would fall, but...

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by livesoft » Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:18 pm

Shoot me now! I've lived a good life.
This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by fantasytensai » Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:19 pm

Thanks guys for not ripping me too hard. Yes I am trying to decide whether to lump sum or DCA a decent amount of $$ before 4 pm EST today. I realize that this is a completely ridiculous question. Go easy!

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by Nate79 » Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:19 pm

By tomorrow do you mean Thursday or when this actually happens? First, I would tell the gunmen he is an idiot for asking the question. But if forced to answer I would say go up which is probably highest statistical answer.

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by aristotelian » Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:21 pm

I would guess people are going to take profits from today's bump and it will go down. Just a total guess.

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by mak1277 » Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:22 pm

cadreamer2015 wrote:
Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:15 pm
Is this actionable?
I think we as users should all agree to let mods mod...and not attempt to mod ourselves.

PS - If cadreamer2015 actually is a mod, I apologize.

fantasytensai
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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by fantasytensai » Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:22 pm

Nate79 wrote:
Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:19 pm
By tomorrow do you mean Thursday or when this actually happens? First, I would tell the gunmen he is an idiot for asking the question. But if forced to answer I would say go up which is probably highest statistical answer.
Yup. Through your response and alex_686 I came to realize that what happens tomorrow is insignificant. It could go up 1% for all that matters, but the gain could be erased easily by a 1 day drop a week, a month, or even a year later. And since there is no way I'm holding on to my money for that long, I'm just going to dump it all in today. Thanks for helping me come to this simple conclusion that I really think that I should have known!

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by ThrustVectoring » Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:23 pm

fantasytensai wrote:
Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:19 pm
Thanks guys for not ripping me too hard. Yes I am trying to decide whether to lump sum or DCA a decent amount of $$ before 4 pm EST today. I realize that this is a completely ridiculous question. Go easy!
Lump sum it. If it goes down, don't feel bad, because investing ASAP will do better on average.

Focus on the process and not on results over the short term.

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by MathWizard » Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:25 pm

The bull goes up the stairs, the bear goes out the window.

Short of a coin flip, I'd have to say up.

fantasytensai
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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by fantasytensai » Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:28 pm

livesoft wrote:
Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:18 pm
Shoot me now! I've lived a good life.
No way! We need your wisdom on this forum!

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by bestplans » Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:29 pm

If I win I live? What if I don't win? I also live? If I have more specifics I'll be able to respond more accurately.

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by KyleAAA » Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:32 pm

This is easy. According to the below link, daily returns have been positive 53.6% of the time since 1950. So I say up. Slightly better than a coin toss.

https://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-Yo-Yo.pdf

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by CnC » Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:37 pm

Come on guys it's common knowledge.

The stock market is going to go up. It will continue to go up almost daily, until it doesn't. The chances that tomorrow will be the day are exceedingly low.

That's the problem, stocks have momentum they will come continue doing what ever they are doing untill they abruptly stop.

I am not smart enough to see when that stop will happen, and based off every market strategist has predicted I don't thing many people are.

So I will stick with my original statement, of course it will go up and continue to rise untill it doesn't. Then it will crawl sideways or crash untill it stops doing one of those things then it will switch again.

fantasytensai
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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by fantasytensai » Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:48 pm

KyleAAA wrote:
Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:32 pm
This is easy. According to the below link, daily returns have been positive 53.6% of the time since 1950. So I say up. Slightly better than a coin toss.

https://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-Yo-Yo.pdf
It's amazing that even in a bear market the stocks go up more often than down. It really is a stairs/window relationship.

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:55 pm

I would answer "yes".

The gun pointer would become disoriented and I'd use my magical kung fu powers to turn my head and control the gun.

Then an annoying Edward Jones commercial would start.
Bogle: Smart Beta is stupid

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by nimo956 » Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:59 pm

The only price that matters is when you choose to sell. Do you need to sell shares the day after purchasing them to fund your living expenses? If not, then don't worry about the price tomorrow.
50% VTI / 50% VXUS

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by pennstater2005 » Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:59 pm

I would give him/her my wallet although that would probably make matters worse as I don't carry cash. Wasn't that a thread on here before? Carrying cash and getting mugged or something like that :oops:

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by truenorth418 » Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:03 pm

cadreamer2015 wrote:
Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:15 pm
Is this actionable?
No. And neither are the current threads about "reversed pictures" or "trash on the sidewalk". What's your point?

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by Taylor Larimore » Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:11 pm

fantasytensai wrote:
Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:19 pm
Thanks guys for not ripping me too hard. Yes I am trying to decide whether to lump sum or DCA a decent amount of $$ before 4 pm EST today. I realize that this is a completely ridiculous question. Go easy!
fantasytensai:

Your question is not "ridiculous." It is one of our most common questions.

Here's my view: Our most important portfolio decision is to decide our stock/fixed income ratio. If you are confident in your decision, it makes sense to lump sum to your desired asset-allocation immediately.

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by thangngo » Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:12 pm

fantasytensai wrote:
Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:09 pm
I know this is a ridiculous hypo, but if someone held a gun to your head, and force you to pick if the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, if you win you live, which would you choose?

I know this doesn't appear relevant to this thread, but it will actually help me solve a problem with my personal investments. So thank you in advance for helping to answer this ridiculous question!
I'd say: "Go ahead boy. Be quick about it. I don't have all day."

GMT-8
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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by GMT-8 » Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:13 pm

Stay the Course

alternatively,

Just Shoot Me

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by Boglegrappler » Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:17 pm

It's worth repeating something a smart guy once said to me years ago: If it weren't for some short-term, and intermediate term fluctuations, every day would be a new record for the indexes.

If you absolutely had to make a wager on tomorrow, you bet on an increase.

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by JoMoney » Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:02 pm

I would have already been betting on a rise, but under the coercive threat, I would be temporarily stunned at the paradox of the situation about to unfold, where only in America would someone try to threaten me with a gun to bet on the stock market, and only in America would I respond with "Live free or die" and proceed to engage the perpetrator of this bizarre threat.
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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by jebmke » Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:03 pm

I try to duck questions like this.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by pkcrafter » Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:08 pm

Thanks guys for not ripping me too hard. Yes I am trying to decide whether to lump sum or DCA a decent amount of $$ before 4 pm EST today. I realize that this is a completely ridiculous question. Go easy!

Well, too late now. What did you do?

This is my suggestion: If it's new money, then DCA. If it's a transfer of money that was in the market, then just put it back in at the original AA.

Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by miles monroe » Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:10 pm

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:55 pm

Then an annoying Edward Jones commercial would start.
edward jones is a nasty, nasty, company -- but they have fantastic commercials.

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by Toons » Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:12 pm

Lump Sum.
As much as you can afford.
Don't look back :happy
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by lack_ey » Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:26 pm

From July 1926 through the end of August 2017, the US stock market was up on 55.0% of trading days.

That according to Ken French data. I just added together Mkt-Rf and Rf together and compared that with zero for each day and counted occurrences. It drops to 53.9% if you look at Mkt-Rf (return above T-bills).

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by acanthurus » Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:31 pm

cadreamer2015 wrote:
Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:15 pm
Is this actionable?
Weekly options expire tomorrow, so yes :)

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by whodidntante » Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:36 pm

An African or European swallow?

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by JoMoney » Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:39 pm

acanthurus wrote:
Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:31 pm
cadreamer2015 wrote:
Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:15 pm
Is this actionable?
Weekly options expire tomorrow, so yes :)
And the historical anniversary of Black Monday
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by ljb1234 » Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:56 pm

MathWizard wrote:
Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:25 pm
The bull goes up the stairs, the bear goes out the window.
This is perfect!

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by badbreath » Wed Oct 18, 2017 6:23 pm

I would just say yes it will do one of thoughs
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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by Sandtrap » Wed Oct 18, 2017 6:48 pm

Up.

What kind of gun? :shock:

Impending thread lock. . . .
j
Last edited by Sandtrap on Wed Oct 18, 2017 8:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by MrDogg » Wed Oct 18, 2017 6:50 pm

My bet - it will rise.

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by ved » Wed Oct 18, 2017 6:56 pm

Tell him/her that you will give an answer, if he/she agrees to be shot if you are right.

In before the lock :D

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by arsenalfan » Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:11 pm

"I know what you're thinking. "Did he fire six shots or only five?" Well to tell you the truth in all this excitement I kinda lost track myself....You've gotta ask yourself one question: "Do I feel lucky?" Well, do ya, punk?"

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by Sandtrap » Wed Oct 18, 2017 8:15 pm

IMHO nobody has to force me and it's not a gamble.
Funds invested in the S&P 500 will rise and fall tomorrow.
At the opening day of trading it will rise, then fall then rise then fall.
Such is the pulse or heartbeat of the market and the economy.
Boglehead theory is the economy will grow in the long term, despite the inherent rise and fall of the market in the short term.
If this were not so, we would not have investment portfolio's but instead invest elsewhere.

Actionably:

Invest today.
Ignore the noise.

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by JBTX » Wed Oct 18, 2017 8:39 pm

fantasytensai wrote:
Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:19 pm
Thanks guys for not ripping me too hard. Yes I am trying to decide whether to lump sum or DCA a decent amount of $$ before 4 pm EST today. I realize that this is a completely ridiculous question. Go easy!

In theory, and over the long term, it is best to lump sum in, because on average the stock market tend to go up, so the longer you are in, the higher your average returns.

Presumably you are asking the question because the market has a historically high valuation according to many metrics. Based upon this, it is probably pretty reasonable to assume returns over the next 10 years will likely be lower than average. However, over the period of a year or shorter, whether the market is "overvalued" probably isn't very predictive of whether the market will go down. So I am not sure if DCA'ing into the market over a year or less would provide you any material protection in such a circumstance.

If I had to guess tomorrow, I'd say it would go up, because on any given day, odds are it will. If you asked me will the market be up or down in a year, I'd say odds are it will be up. If you asked me will it be up or down in 5 years, I would say odds are it will be up. Same with 10 years and beyond.

Now if you asked me will returns over the next 10 years be higher or lower than average? I would say lower. That could mean it crashes in 1 year and starts to go back up, or it goes up 2, or 3, or 4 or 5 years, then crashes, then starts to go back up. Or perhaps it never really crashes, it just doesn't go up very much over the next 10 years.

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by arsenalfan » Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:01 pm

arsenalfan wrote:
Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:11 pm
"I know what you're thinking. "Did he fire six shots or only five?" Well to tell you the truth in all this excitement I kinda lost track myself....You've gotta ask yourself one question: "Do I feel lucky?" Well, do ya, punk?"
Down. Reversion to the mean is coming.

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Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

Post by LadyGeek » Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:03 pm

This thread has run its course and is locked (derailed, no added value to continue).
To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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