Is it a good time to buy Apple Stock on 9/23?

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maxgrowth
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Is it a good time to buy Apple Stock on 9/23?

Post by maxgrowth » Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:09 pm

Dear Bogleheads,

After the Apple released iPhone 8, their stock went very low due to the poor sales. Is it right time for me to buy Apple Stocks now? If so, how much should I buy? I have around $100K which I am looking for investment opportunity.

I never bought any stock before although I did some research. All i did it before is for Mutual Funds. Where is the best place to buy the Apple stock? What is the procedure? Should I buy via Vanguard? I feel I seriously need some guidance.

Thank you so much.

kjvmartin
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Re: Is it a good time to buy Apple Stock on 9/23?

Post by kjvmartin » Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:13 pm

I would not recommend it. Technology companies, giant as they may be, are not invincible.

livesoft
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Re: Is it a good time to buy Apple Stock on 9/23?

Post by livesoft » Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:21 pm

If you don't mind losing money, I don't see why you don't buy 100 shares of AAPL, but $100,000 worth without any prior experience with stocks: I don't think so.

Full disclosure: I would not bother to own a single stock anymore.
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Pajamas
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Re: Is it a good time to buy Apple Stock on 9/23?

Post by Pajamas » Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:23 pm

maxgrowth wrote:
Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:09 pm

After the Apple released iPhone 8, their stock went very low due to the poor sales.
Stock is still over $150. It spent quite a bit of time under $100 just last year. I wouldn't agree that it went very low recently.

ny_rn
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Re: Is it a good time to buy Apple Stock on 9/23?

Post by ny_rn » Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:28 pm

If $100,000 is considered "nothing" to you, then feel free. But, I have a feeling this money is important to you. So, do not do it.

Put the cash in a savings account, spend more time on this site and educate yourself a little more.

Lafder
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Re: Is it a good time to buy Apple Stock on 9/23?

Post by Lafder » Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:30 pm

Why not take your 100k and buy VTSAX , Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Admiral Shares ?

The expense ratio is 0.04% per year.

And Apple stock is the largest stock % it owns as of now. So you get a big chunk of Apple stock.

Plus, you are also buying the diversity of 3606 OTHER stock holdings so your 100k is not just growing based on one stock.

lafder

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Taylor Larimore
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Re: Is it a good time to buy Apple Stock on 9/23?

Post by Taylor Larimore » Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:32 pm

maxgrowth wrote:
Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:09 pm
Dear Bogleheads,

After the Apple released iPhone 8, their stock went very low due to the poor sales. Is it right time for me to buy Apple Stocks now? If so, how much should I buy? I have around $100K which I am looking for investment opportunity.

I never bought any stock before although I did some research. All i did it before is for Mutual Funds. Where is the best place to buy the Apple stock? What is the procedure? Should I buy via Vanguard? I feel I seriously need some guidance.

Thank you so much.
maxgrowth:

The Boglehead Investment Philosophy discourages investing in individual stocks and market timing. These experts agree:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=157391

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=156499

This is a link to the Boglehead Investment Philosophy:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Boglehe ... philosophy

Best wishes.
Taylor
Last edited by Taylor Larimore on Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

aqan
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Re: Is it a good time to buy Apple Stock on 9/23?

Post by aqan » Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:33 pm

Lafder wrote:
Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:30 pm
Why not take your 100k and buy VTSAX , Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Admiral Shares ?

The expense ratio is 0.04% per year.

And Apple stock is the largest stock % it owns as of now. So you get a big chunk of Apple stock.

Plus, you are also buying the diversity of 3606 OTHER stock holdings so your 100k is not just growing based on one stock.

lafder
Well said.
I would buy a few extra shares if you believe that its a good buy at this point (I disagree but I've been wrong before).. but make sure you do your research.

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baw703916
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Re: Is it a good time to buy Apple Stock on 9/23?

Post by baw703916 » Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:36 pm

9/23 isn't a good time to buy. For one thing, the market's closed.

But if you buy TSM, you will have made a bigger investment in Apple than in any other company...
Most of my posts assume no behavioral errors.

Jags4186
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Re: Is it a good time to buy Apple Stock on 9/23?

Post by Jags4186 » Sat Sep 23, 2017 11:19 pm

Yes 9/23/1997 would have been a great time to buy Apple.

Your $100,000 would be worth about $24,000,000 today.

randomguy
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Re: Is it a good time to buy Apple Stock on 9/23?

Post by randomguy » Sun Sep 24, 2017 11:46 am

Lafder wrote:
Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:30 pm
Why not take your 100k and buy VTSAX , Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Admiral Shares ?

The expense ratio is 0.04% per year.

And Apple stock is the largest stock % it owns as of now. So you get a big chunk of Apple stock.

Plus, you are also buying the diversity of 3606 OTHER stock holdings so your 100k is not just growing based on one stock.

lafder
Why buy 3606 losers when you can buy 1 winner? Why dilute yourself? 😁

inbox788
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Re: Is it a good time to buy Apple Stock on 9/23?

Post by inbox788 » Sun Sep 24, 2017 1:05 pm

Yes, AAPL has been going up for years and will keep going up sky high!

No, after product announcement comes out, their stock usually drops ("Sell the news event").

Maybe...

Seriously, just buy an age appropriate Target Date at Vanguard or similar and you're 98% there. You can tweak the last 2% as needed as you learn more.

https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/150-p ... han-yours/

And nearly all will benefit from AAPL a little and more than any other stock you might choose.

Valuethinker
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Re: Is it a good time to buy Apple Stock on 9/23?

Post by Valuethinker » Sun Sep 24, 2017 1:20 pm

maxgrowth wrote:
Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:09 pm
Dear Bogleheads,

After the Apple released iPhone 8, their stock went very low due to the poor sales. Is it right time for me to buy Apple Stocks now? If so, how much should I buy? I have around $100K which I am looking for investment opportunity.

I never bought any stock before although I did some research. All i did it before is for Mutual Funds. Where is the best place to buy the Apple stock? What is the procedure? Should I buy via Vanguard? I feel I seriously need some guidance.

Thank you so much.
The smartest people in finance try to get the Apple share price right. They have the best advice, read all the latest industry research, talk to management frequently, send people into stores to find out what is going on, etc. etc.

Why do you think you can beat them?

If you want to spend say $2k on this, then fine, it's a gamble. Just like going to the casino at Las Vegas (although your odds are somewhat better, on average). Don't confuse success (or failure) with either skill or a good investment policy, though.

And just like the casino at LV, don't gamble more than you can afford to lose.

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Alexa9
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Re: Is it a good time to buy Apple Stock on 9/23?

Post by Alexa9 » Sun Sep 24, 2017 1:33 pm

Betting a lot of money on one stock is gambling, nothing else. Somewhat better than going to the casino. If I were to buy stocks, I would buy at least 20 of them and at that point you're better off with a Total Market index fund anyways. Too much volatility in one stock. Buy the haystack, not the needle.

maxgrowth
Posts: 37
Joined: Fri Feb 24, 2017 4:14 pm

Re: Is it a good time to buy Apple Stock on 9/23?

Post by maxgrowth » Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:09 am

Thank you all. These are very valuable and wise advices. This is the reason why I love you guys and the site so much. :D I really appreciate it.

I listened to you and withdrew my buying APPL stock idea.

One more question:

I have had $150K in VTSAX and $70K in VTIAX since March 2017. They are growing very well. Fingers are crossed.

Should I split the additional $100K into VTSAX and VTIAX 60% vs. 40% as you mentioned diversity is the key?

Can I sell part of them at any point of my life if I need these funds for life unforeseen emergency? What is the tax consequence as they are in my taxable account?

Again, thank you!

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catdude
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Re: Is it a good time to buy Apple Stock on 9/23?

Post by catdude » Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:48 am

maxgrowth wrote:
Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:09 am
Thank you all. These are very valuable and wise advices. This is the reason why I love you guys and the site so much. :D I really appreciate it.

I listened to you and withdrew my buying APPL stock idea.

One more question:

I have had $150K in VTSAX and $70K in VTIAX since March 2017. They are growing very well. Fingers are crossed.

Should I split the additional $100K into VTSAX and VTIAX 60% vs. 40% as you mentioned diversity is the key?

Can I sell part of them at any point of my life if I need these funds for life unforeseen emergency? What is the tax consequence as they are in my taxable account?

Again, thank you!
maxgrowth,

You should set aside a chunk of the money as an emergency fund, and stick it in a savings account or money market fund. I think there's general agreement here that an amount equal to six months of expenses would be the appropriate amount to set aside. Yes, if you have your emergency fund invested in your taxable brokerage account, you would be able to take it out in the event of an emergency; but it's quite possible circumstances would force you to sell when the market is low. Better to keep your emergency fund un-invested.
catdude | | “The holy passion of Friendship is of so sweet and steady and loyal and enduring a nature that it will last through a whole lifetime, if not asked to lend money.” (Mark Twain)

Bfwolf
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Re: Is it a good time to buy Apple Stock on 9/23?

Post by Bfwolf » Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:00 am

maxgrowth wrote:
Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:09 am
Thank you all. These are very valuable and wise advices. This is the reason why I love you guys and the site so much. :D I really appreciate it.

I listened to you and withdrew my buying APPL stock idea.

One more question:

I have had $150K in VTSAX and $70K in VTIAX since March 2017. They are growing very well. Fingers are crossed.

Should I split the additional $100K into VTSAX and VTIAX 60% vs. 40% as you mentioned diversity is the key?

Can I sell part of them at any point of my life if I need these funds for life unforeseen emergency? What is the tax consequence as they are in my taxable account?

Again, thank you!
Hi Maxgrowth!

I would say that your question is difficult to answer with the info provided. Some people should have a dedicated emergency fund sitting in cash or something close to cash while others do not need a dedicated emergency fund. It depends on their circumstances. I checked some of your old posts, but didn't see any that followed the traditional Boglehead format for asking for investment advice. This format "forces" you to provide the critical info that your fellow Bogleheads need to give you the best advice. Here's a link to a post with the format: viewtopic.php?t=6212

Bfwolf
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Re: Is it a good time to buy Apple Stock on 9/23?

Post by Bfwolf » Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:06 am

maxgrowth wrote:
Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:09 am
Thank you all. These are very valuable and wise advices. This is the reason why I love you guys and the site so much. :D I really appreciate it.

I listened to you and withdrew my buying APPL stock idea.

One more question:

I have had $150K in VTSAX and $70K in VTIAX since March 2017. They are growing very well. Fingers are crossed.

Should I split the additional $100K into VTSAX and VTIAX 60% vs. 40% as you mentioned diversity is the key?

Can I sell part of them at any point of my life if I need these funds for life unforeseen emergency? What is the tax consequence as they are in my taxable account?

Again, thank you!
But to answer your question about emergencies: yes, you can sell any security in your taxable accounts for life's unforeseen emergencies. The tax consequences are that if the security has increased in value since you bought it, you owe taxes on the gains. For instance, if you purchase $100,000 of mutual fund ABC and then the price on ABC increases 10%, at which time you sell it, you owe taxes on the $10,000 capital gain. If you've held the shares for less than a year, you owe the tax at your marginal tax bracket rate. So if you're in the 25% federal bracket, you've got to pay $2,500 in taxes. If you've held the shares for over a year, you will pay the long term capital gain rate which is 15% for most people. In our example, $1,500 in taxes.

None of this though addresses whether it's a good idea for you to invest that $100,000 in stock mutual funds. For that, we really need more info from you as I mentioned in the prior post.

rgs92
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Re: Is it a good time to buy Apple Stock on 9/23?

Post by rgs92 » Mon Sep 25, 2017 9:22 am

I own 300+ shares of AAPL directly.
My reasons:
1. I see it as a duopoly with Samsung for the entire smartphone business, and I don't think Apple users are inclined to switch,
so it's more like a monopoly on what is basically a necessity product to most people.

2. It has a P/E of 18, about the same as the entire S&P500.

3. They have a huge balance sheet.

(I will avoid the questions of whether it is proper to own individual stocks or whether owning individual stocks is appropriate for your personal situation. I don't think you are asking that from reading your post, so I didn't want to be presumptuous.)

For the record, I have owned a significant amount of AAPL for several years now. I actually started a thread here about whether I should hold on to my AAPL stock about a year ago. I decided to keep it.

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