Bipolar Investor Wants to Roll The Dice

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Agcentral
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Joined: Sat May 23, 2015 8:43 pm

Bipolar Investor Wants to Roll The Dice

Post by Agcentral » Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:10 am

…. Within limits. (Vanguard investment limits that is)

I would like to invest in a Vanguard mutual/index fund with my last (2017) Roth purchase ($6500).

Status:
Retired as of June, 2017
Total Vanguard investments are presently 20% of my total holdings
This Roth venture represent less than 1% of my total portfolio so it’s not a make or break asset
Life expectancy at my age is probably 10 years so this is more for my kids than anything else

Financial Goals:
To live within my budget. The limits are my Social Security & Pension income streams.
To build my Net Worth for my descendants.
To stay conservative with my investments. (I have been down the path with Enron stock and have lost additional money on ‘hot tip’ stocks etc. so I am done investing in individual stocks).

Still, I haven’t totally lost my sense of humor so with this Roth, I want to have some fun. What are, in your opinion, the highest risk/reward index funds in the Vanguard family you would recommend?

Please advise. And thank you very much.

Lots of bright minded people on this forum and I enjoy coming here.

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sometimesinvestor
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Re: Bipolar Investor Wants to Roll The Dice

Post by sometimesinvestor » Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:27 am

Obvious answer is emerging market but I want to make it clear I am answering the question not recommending it.
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... IntExt=INT

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dwickenh
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Re: Bipolar Investor Wants to Roll The Dice

Post by dwickenh » Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:53 am

If I was gambling on one fund, and I am not, it would be the Energy sector that has been beaten down for 3-4 years. Will it come back, who knows, but at least you are starting with a depressed valuation. There are some talking heads that agree with this sector being ready to move up. I never believe the talking heads.

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... 051#tab=1a

Good luck in your decision.

Dan
The market is the most efficient mechanism anywhere in the world for transferring wealth from impatient people to patient people.” | — Warren Buffett

dbr
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Re: Bipolar Investor Wants to Roll The Dice

Post by dbr » Sat Sep 16, 2017 9:08 am

Without a doubt if you want to "have fun" with 1% of your money the last thing to consider is boring mutual funds from a boring company like Vanguard. I would start looking around for some fascinating small companies doing something interesting that you can follow and invest in that. Alternatively you could buy some options or something that would keep you busy or speculate in currency and watch it everyday. You need to seriously measure the entertainment value of this or there is no point in it.

JBTX
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Re: Bipolar Investor Wants to Roll The Dice

Post by JBTX » Sat Sep 16, 2017 9:16 am

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... IntExt=INT

Vanguard small cap value index may be an interesting play. Small cap value has historically outperformed the broad markets over long periods of times. Also, value investing has NOT done well compared to growth in last 10 years, and perhaps it's due for a rebound.

Be aware the risk and volatility on this is more than your standard total market index.

Also agree with posted above that Emerging markets are an interesting high risk play. I have seen some argue that emerging markets have better relative valuations vs the US market. But be aware when the US market tanks emerging markets typically tank worse.

ThrustVectoring
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Re: Bipolar Investor Wants to Roll The Dice

Post by ThrustVectoring » Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:12 am

Take risks elsewhere in your life, IMO. The best investing strategies involve making a good decision and then not changing your mind. Like, I would pretend that the only fund Vanguard has is the target retirement fund that matches your retirement date.

Don't YOLO with your retirement accounts.

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Tyler Aspect
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Re: Bipolar Investor Wants to Roll The Dice

Post by Tyler Aspect » Sat Sep 16, 2017 7:14 pm

With 1% of portfolio allocation an investment to Vanguard Healthcare ETF (VHT) might make sense. You can rationalize it as some kind of liability matching to higher projected medical cost. I agree that yolo-ing it would be a bad idea.
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selftalk
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Re: Bipolar Investor Wants to Roll The Dice

Post by selftalk » Sat Sep 16, 2017 7:20 pm

I would put it into VGPMX. I feel the risk is low now and the upside can really be something.

Billionaire
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Re: Bipolar Investor Wants to Roll The Dice

Post by Billionaire » Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:31 pm

Try some stocks that are involved with the marijuana industry. I missed a big opportunity on one. Now it's back down considerably, but I'm still not pulling the trigger.

venkman
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Re: Bipolar Investor Wants to Roll The Dice

Post by venkman » Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:07 pm

If I were one of your heirs, I would say just put it in something like the Total Stock Market fund (VTSAX) and let it grow for a decade or more.

But, if you REALLY want to gamble with Vanguard, look at EDV, their Long-Term Treasury Zero-Coupon Bond ETF.

(Note that I'm not recommending you actually put any money in it.) :happy

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Watty
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Re: Bipolar Investor Wants to Roll The Dice

Post by Watty » Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:36 pm

Agcentral wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:10 am
Life expectancy at my age is probably 10 years so this is more for my kids than anything else
......

What are, in your opinion, the highest risk/reward index funds in the Vanguard family you would recommend?
One option to look at would be a deferred annuity that starts in 10+ years.

Obviously you would lose it all if you die early but you would not have spent down much of your other savings so the kids would still inherit a lot.

If you live to be exceptionally old then the deferred annuity would start in ten+ years and help you not draw down the rest of your retirement savings so the kids could inherit more someday, or you could start gifting money to them before you die.

Or you could just give it to your kids now if you clearly have have more than you will need.

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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Bipolar Investor Wants to Roll The Dice

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:55 pm

Agcentral wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:10 am
…. Within limits. (Vanguard investment limits that is)

I would like to invest in a Vanguard mutual/index fund with my last (2017) Roth purchase ($6500).

Status:
Retired as of June, 2017
Total Vanguard investments are presently 20% of my total holdings
This Roth venture represent less than 1% of my total portfolio so it’s not a make or break asset
Life expectancy at my age is probably 10 years so this is more for my kids than anything else

Financial Goals:
To live within my budget. The limits are my Social Security & Pension income streams.
To build my Net Worth for my descendants.
To stay conservative with my investments. (I have been down the path with Enron stock and have lost additional money on ‘hot tip’ stocks etc. so I am done investing in individual stocks).

Still, I haven’t totally lost my sense of humor so with this Roth, I want to have some fun. What are, in your opinion, the highest risk/reward index funds in the Vanguard family you would recommend?

Please advise. And thank you very much.

Lots of bright minded people on this forum and I enjoy coming here.
Since ths is for your kids, how would they want the money invested? Are they interested in investing? At some point they will have control of the money so they should understand why you're choosing the investments on their behalf. Presumably they'd keep investing the same way in the future, right? So if they would invest it in a 2060 TD fund (or whatever year they plan to retire) then just do that.

Finally, I do see some contridictions between "build my net worth" and "stay conservative with my investments". I mean you can still get some growth even if you are conservative but then are you really trying to build net worth or are you really just trying to preserve your net worth? I only mention it because I feel like the two statements somewhat contradict each other. And it's very common for people to want both growth and safety and yet the two are really in opposition. If you want high returns, you have to take risk. If you don't want to take risk, you have to settle for lower returns. Risk and Return are inextricably linked. Is this what you mean by being a "bipolar investor"? That you want to both have your cake and eat it too?
"Invest we must." -- Jack Bogle | “The purpose of investing is not to simply optimise returns and make yourself rich. The purpose is not to die poor.” -- William Bernstein

DrGoogle2017
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Re: Bipolar Investor Wants to Roll The Dice

Post by DrGoogle2017 » Sun Sep 17, 2017 12:19 am

I would roll the dice on TESLA. That's just me. Indexing is not rolling the dice.

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