ROI [which funds have the best returns last 20 years?]

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ptstwrt
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Joined: Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:21 pm

ROI [which funds have the best returns last 20 years?]

Post by ptstwrt » Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:31 pm

I don't know if this has been disgust yet I'm sure it has but I wasn't able to find it.

What specific funds out there are giving the best ROI for the last 20 years (loads and fees included)?
What tools can I use to find this info myself?
Also I have no idea what loads and fees are and how they are applied (how they effect the performance).

Im just starting out with all of this.
Why should I not just load up on funds that fit question one?

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oldcomputerguy
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Location: In the middle of five acres of woods

Re: ROI [which funds have the best returns last 20 years?]

Post by oldcomputerguy » Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:39 pm

ptstwrt wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:31 pm
I don't know if this has been disgust yet I'm sure it has but I wasn't able to find it.

What specific funds out there are giving the best ROI for the last 20 years (loads and fees included)?
What tools can I use to find this info myself?
Also I have no idea what loads and fees are and how they are applied (how they effect the performance).

Im just starting out with all of this.
Why should I not just load up on funds that fit question one?
Nobody knows which funds will perform best going forward. Google for the Callan Periodic Chart. It's a very informative graphic that lists a large number of asset subclasses in order of performance over the last twenty years. It is a graphic presentation of the fact that there is no predictability to what will outperform.
Anybody know why there's a 20-pound frozen turkey up in the light grid?

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David Jay
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Location: Michigan

Re: ROI [which funds have the best returns last 20 years?]

Post by David Jay » Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:41 pm

ptstwrt wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:31 pm
I don't know if this has been disgust yet I'm sure it has but I wasn't able to find it.

What specific funds out there are giving the best ROI for the last 20 years (loads and fees included)?
What tools can I use to find this info myself?
Also I have no idea what loads and fees are and how they are applied (how they effect the performance).

Im just starting out with all of this.
Why should I not just load up on funds that fit question one?
See the first quote in my signature. The past has little predictive power.

May I suggest the Boglehead Startup Kit here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Boglehe ... art-up_kit
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future - Niels Bohr | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius

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CABob
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Location: Southern California

Re: ROI [which funds have the best returns last 20 years?]

Post by CABob » Mon Sep 11, 2017 9:46 pm

Nobody knows which funds will perform best going forward. Google for the Callan Periodic Chart. It's a very informative graphic that lists a large number of asset subclasses in order of performance over the last twenty years. It is a graphic presentation of the fact that there is no predictability to what will outperform.
Callan Periodic Chart
I view this chart frequently and still haven't figured out a "system" for beating the market.
Bob

JBTX
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Re: ROI [which funds have the best returns last 20 years?]

Post by JBTX » Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:06 pm

ptstwrt wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:31 pm
I don't know if this has been disgust yet I'm sure it has but I wasn't able to find it.

What specific funds out there are giving the best ROI for the last 20 years (loads and fees included)?
What tools can I use to find this info myself?
Morningstar.com and Lipper.com have fund rankings over various time frames.
Also I have no idea what loads and fees are and how they are applied (how they effect the performance).
Too lengthy to discuss, but typically they are factored into the performance
Im just starting out with all of this.
Why should I not just load up on funds that fit question one?
Because there is virtually zero correlation of what has done well in the past vs what will do well in the future. Think of 100 people flipping coins 100 times. Some people will have more heads than others. Do you really think the people that flipped more heads in the past will flip more heads in the future? For the most part, mutual fund performance works the same way

Also, typically funds that return the most have the most risk in an extended bull market. Your answer #1 may end up with a bunch of funds with primarily tech growth stocks. That doesn't mean that is the optimal risk adjusted investment strategy for you long term.

Also, some funds that do well when they are small, attract many new investors and become 10-20 times as large, and even if you believe a fund manager can beat the market with a modest amount of money, it is very difficult to do the same with massive amounts of money. The fund of 10-20 years ago may look very different than the fund that exists now.

pkcrafter
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Re: ROI [which funds have the best returns last 20 years?]

Post by pkcrafter » Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:36 pm

Article on index funds.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-wa ... 2017-04-24

Article on why index funds work.

https://web.stanford.edu/~wfsharpe/art/ ... active.htm
“The grim irony of investing, then, is that we investors as a group not only don't get what we pay for, we get precisely what we don't pay for. So if we pay for nothing, we get everything.”

John Bogle

Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.

dbr
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Re: ROI [which funds have the best returns last 20 years?]

Post by dbr » Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:29 am

Investing is a matter of what assets one holds rather than picking funds to buy. It isn't like buying a car to get a certain superiority of design or a powerful engine or good handling or high gas mileage or something.

A fund can give you the assets you want, starting as a default with a total market index, and otherwise is superior the less it costs you. Operating costs are reported in the expense ratio mostly. Some costs, such as brokerage costs to trade the fund, are not reported in the ER but can be estimated from the turnover. These costs are always already accounted for in the fund NAV. Fund performance that you look up anywhere already takes into account all these costs and the benefits of distributions issued. Do not look at price charts as these do not include distributions.

Loads are a different animal. A load is a fee charged by a broker to buy a fund. It is assessed before your money is invested and is not included in any reports of total return or growth of investment that you will see.

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