what % of international stock

Have a question about your personal investments? No matter how simple or complex, you can ask it here.
Post Reply
looking
Posts: 658
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:14 pm
Location: morgan hill ,ca

what % of international stock

Post by looking » Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:11 am

what percentage of international stock in one's portfolios in this market ???

User avatar
munemaker
Posts: 3458
Joined: Sat Jan 18, 2014 6:14 pm

Re: what % of international stock

Post by munemaker » Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:15 am

You are going to get answers from zero to fifty percent in international.

Bogle and Buffet would say zero. Others on here will say 50. You will get answers everywhere in between. There is no right answer. It is up to you.

When you say "in this market," you are implying market timing. Your asset allocation should be independent of market timing.

User avatar
parsi1
Posts: 271
Joined: Tue May 29, 2012 8:03 am

Re: what % of international stock

Post by parsi1 » Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:17 am

I am in vanguard target retirement 2025, the international portion is close to 25%

chevca
Posts: 1906
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2017 11:22 am

Re: what % of international stock

Post by chevca » Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:25 am

OP, looks like you've been a member here since 2007. What percent international did you hold in other markets? What makes this market different? What is "this market" anyway?

Nowizard
Posts: 1542
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2007 5:33 pm

Re: what % of international stock

Post by Nowizard » Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:32 am

Depends, as others have said. When international is performing better than domestic, it may tempt to market time, or it may be a catalyst for changing percentages you have considered for a longer period of time. If the latter, than you still need to be able to explain your change or it falls in the realm of market timing. Of course you can choose to market time, but this is not the place to be affirmed for it. :?

Tim

User avatar
Taylor Larimore
Advisory Board
Posts: 27415
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:09 pm
Location: Miami FL

Re: what % of international stock

Post by Taylor Larimore » Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:33 am

looking wrote:
Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:11 am
what percentage of international stock in one's portfolios in this market ???
looking:

You may find this post helpful:

What Percentage of International. A suggestion.

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

simmias
Posts: 226
Joined: Sun May 17, 2015 4:18 pm

Re: what % of international stock

Post by simmias » Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:34 am

parsi1 wrote:
Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:17 am
I am in vanguard target retirement 2025, the international portion is close to 25%
But it's 40% of total equities.

User avatar
InvestorNewb
Posts: 1592
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 11:27 am

Re: what % of international stock

Post by InvestorNewb » Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:36 am

I have around 20% international. Nobody knows the right answer so why not hold at least 20%?
My Portfolio: VTI [US], VXUS [Int'l], VNQ [REIT], VCN [Canada] (largest to smallest)

Da5id
Posts: 2041
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2016 8:20 am

Re: what % of international stock

Post by Da5id » Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:45 am

33% is the one true answer, that being what I've selected by a highly scientific process.

Bogle theory answer would seem to me to be market weight (buy the haystack). Bogle actual answer is 0% (because US is awesome) but if you really have to no more than 20%. Vanguard's current answer is 40% based on their LifeStrategy and Target fund choices. Your answer is do some research and pick what you can live with and can stick to through outperformance of US and outperformance of Int'l. I'd suggest avoiding what your question implies, which is picking a dynamic value and trying to adjust it over time based on valuations. Sounds great, hard to implement.

Gets popcorn for YAIT (yet another international thread).

User avatar
in_reality
Posts: 4529
Joined: Fri Jul 12, 2013 6:13 am

Re: what % of international stock

Post by in_reality » Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:47 am

parsi1 wrote:
Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:17 am
I am in vanguard target retirement 2025, the international portion is close to 25%
In that fund:

US is 38.41%
International is 25.85%

Usually we refer to it as a percent of stocks so would call that 40% International

JBTX
Posts: 4039
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2017 12:46 pm

Re: what % of international stock

Post by JBTX » Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:01 am

I've always been between 30-40%. Right now P/E valuations worldwide are marginally lower than the US, FWIW.

Tamalak
Posts: 547
Joined: Fri May 06, 2016 2:29 pm

Re: what % of international stock

Post by Tamalak » Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:04 am

Just buy VT. International at capitalization.

User avatar
ruralavalon
Posts: 13936
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 10:29 am
Location: Illinois

Re: what % of international stock

Post by ruralavalon » Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:19 am

Da5id wrote:
Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:45 am
33% is the one true answer, that being what I've selected by a highly scientific process.

Bogle theory answer would seem to me to be market weight (buy the haystack). Bogle actual answer is 0% (because US is awesome) but if you really have to no more than 20%. Vanguard's current answer is 40% based on their LifeStrategy and Target fund choices. Your answer is do some research and pick what you can live with and can stick to through outperformance of US and outperformance of Int'l. I'd suggest avoiding what your question implies, which is picking a dynamic value and trying to adjust it over time based on valuations. Sounds great, hard to implement.

Gets popcorn for YAIT (yet another international thread).
The one true answer is international at 25% of stocks, since that is what I do :) .
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

User avatar
tc101
Posts: 3006
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 3:18 pm
Location: Atlanta - Retired in 2004 at age 54

Re: what % of international stock

Post by tc101 » Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:56 am

33% is the one true answer, that being what I've selected by a highly scientific process.
There must be some error in your calculations. The correct one true answer is 42%, which I arrived at through a highly scientific process in which I did all the calculations correctly.
. | The most important thing you should know about me is that I am not an expert.

User avatar
jhfenton
Posts: 3297
Joined: Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:17 am
Location: Ohio

Re: what % of international stock

Post by jhfenton » Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:10 am

munemaker wrote:
Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:15 am
You are going to get answers from zero to fifty percent in international.
Actually, I went to 55% international at the end of last year (December) because of the difference in valuations and the jump in the dollar after the election. Yes, it was a bit of market timing, but "over-rebalancing" is permitted by my IPS. Technically, 50% is still the baseline. :beer I'll get back there if valuation differences tighten up (they've been moving in that direction this year).

My baseline was 25% 20 years ago. I increased that to 40% a few years ago. I bumped that to 50% in 2015 when we went all passive and moved everything to Vanguard. Any of the above would be fine. I've just been on a journey toward more of a global portfolio.

JD2775
Posts: 223
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2015 10:47 pm

Re: what % of international stock

Post by JD2775 » Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:17 am

I dropped my INT from 20% of total portfolio to 12% at the end of last year and am kicking myself for doing so. That particular mutual fund in my 401k has been the best performing by far in 2017, something like 15.5% gain

Jack FFR1846
Posts: 7781
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 7:05 am

Re: what % of international stock

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:23 am

I let it "float". Currently it's 25% of equities. What does "float" mean? It means that I no longer include international in my rebalancing. Int has sucked for 3 years and from the end of last year till now, it's skyrocketed. I just look and think "ok" and update my spreadsheet and move on. Maybe make a salad or something.
Bogle: Smart Beta is stupid

User avatar
SpringMan
Posts: 5360
Joined: Wed Mar 21, 2007 11:32 am
Location: Michigan

Re: what % of international stock

Post by SpringMan » Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:40 am

Currently at 29% of equity in foreign. Positions in VSS Van FTSE sm cap ETF, and FSIVX (Fid Int Index) both held in taxable. VIAAX (Int Div appreciation index) held in a Roth. Also some of our actively managed funds hold some percentage of foreign.
Best Wishes, SpringMan

deltaneutral83
Posts: 842
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2017 4:25 pm

Re: what % of international stock

Post by deltaneutral83 » Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:57 am

The correct # is the one that helps you sleep. For me I want more than 20 but less than 30 so I try to stay as close to 25 as possible but I'm not going to look every month to re-balance. If it gets above 30% of my equity allocation (the 5% total/25% proportional rule Swedroe writes about) I'll put new monies toward VTI for a while until it comes back closer to 25% of equities.

Just eyeing on BH, I would say the median allocation of equity toward international is somewhere around 20%. Seemingly, we have more 0s than market weight 50s so that is why I guessed 20% median. I have no idea how Vanguard came up with 35-40% Int as is in their target funds, someone smarter than me can explain that.

bloom2708
Posts: 4775
Joined: Wed Apr 02, 2014 2:08 pm
Location: Fargo, ND

Re: what % of international stock

Post by bloom2708 » Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:59 am

Min: 20%
Max: 50%

No right answer. Pick a number and stick with it.

International was lagging, people questioned their %. International has been good in 2017, people question their %.
Where to spend your time: | 1. You completely control <--spend your time here! | 2. You partially control <--spend your time here! | 3. You have no control <--spend no time here!

lostdog
Posts: 1171
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Re: what % of international stock

Post by lostdog » Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:00 am

Vanguard Total World Index stay the course and then go live your life. The older you get add a bond fund.

sschoe2
Posts: 282
Joined: Fri Feb 24, 2017 4:42 pm

Re: what % of international stock

Post by sschoe2 » Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:03 am

Jack Bogle says none you get enough from Fortune 500's international revenues
Vanguard is very bullish at 40% of equities in Total Intenational Stock Index in their target date funds
Bob Brinker says up to 20%

I tend to be in the middle with Brinker at 20%.

User avatar
ruralavalon
Posts: 13936
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 10:29 am
Location: Illinois

Re: what % of international stock

Post by ruralavalon » Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:11 am

deltaneutral83 wrote:
Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:57 am
. . . . .
Just eyeing on BH, I would say the median allocation of equity toward international is somewhere around 20%. Seemingly, we have more 0s than market weight 50s so that is why I guessed 20% median. I have no idea how Vanguard came up with 35-40% Int as is in their target funds, someone smarter than me can explain that.
I think the BH median is probably around 30% of stocks in international stocks. "What is your equity allocation to international?", 2013 poll.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

Da5id
Posts: 2041
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2016 8:20 am

Re: what % of international stock

Post by Da5id » Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:16 am

sschoe2 wrote:
Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:03 am
Vanguard is very bullish at 40% of equities in Total Intenational Stock Index in their target date funds
By what definition is 40% international bullish? If they were "neutral" on a market cap weighted basis they'd have something like 47% international and 53% US stocks. I'd say "bullish" would be if they had > 47% international.

GAAP
Posts: 586
Joined: Fri Apr 08, 2016 12:41 pm

Re: what % of international stock

Post by GAAP » Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:07 am

Whatever the relative proportion of international is in the total world market -- I only hold VT (Vanguard Total World Stock ETF).

That's technically not exactly accurate, since I do have a small, roughly-equal allocation to VNQ and VNQUI (Vanguard REIT ETF and Vanguard Global Ex-US Real Estate ETF).

sschoe2
Posts: 282
Joined: Fri Feb 24, 2017 4:42 pm

Re: what % of international stock

Post by sschoe2 » Thu Aug 17, 2017 12:03 pm

Da5id wrote:
Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:16 am
sschoe2 wrote:
Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:03 am
Vanguard is very bullish at 40% of equities in Total Intenational Stock Index in their target date funds
By what definition is 40% international bullish? If they were "neutral" on a market cap weighted basis they'd have something like 47% international and 53% US stocks. I'd say "bullish" would be if they had > 47% international.
By definition that it is significantly higher than what most advisers endorse especially when Vanguard's founder Jack Bogle and several others say 0% you get enough exposure from US companies with international presence.

Da5id
Posts: 2041
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2016 8:20 am

Re: what % of international stock

Post by Da5id » Thu Aug 17, 2017 12:21 pm

sschoe2 wrote:
Thu Aug 17, 2017 12:03 pm
By definition that it is significantly higher than what most advisers endorse especially when Vanguard's founder Jack Bogle and several others say 0% you get enough exposure from US companies with international presence.
Where do you get the information on what "most advisers" endorse? I think academics generally endorse it. I like Bogle and appreciate what he has done, but he himself says that his advice of 0% international is against the mainstream.

WhiteMaxima
Posts: 1381
Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 5:04 pm

Re: what % of international stock

Post by WhiteMaxima » Thu Aug 17, 2017 12:31 pm

During this year, the large portion of intl gain very US is because of the dollar devaluation. I would say 40/40/20 US/Intl/EM is the baseline.

User avatar
triceratop
Moderator
Posts: 5648
Joined: Tue Aug 04, 2015 8:20 pm
Location: la la land

Re: what % of international stock

Post by triceratop » Thu Aug 17, 2017 12:39 pm

sschoe2 wrote:
Thu Aug 17, 2017 12:03 pm
Da5id wrote:
Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:16 am
sschoe2 wrote:
Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:03 am
Vanguard is very bullish at 40% of equities in Total Intenational Stock Index in their target date funds
By what definition is 40% international bullish? If they were "neutral" on a market cap weighted basis they'd have something like 47% international and 53% US stocks. I'd say "bullish" would be if they had > 47% international.
By definition that it is significantly higher than what most advisers endorse especially when Vanguard's founder Jack Bogle and several others say 0% you get enough exposure from US companies with international presence.
Saying you need international as a diversifier is not "bullish", especially since as pointed out in Vanguard's case it is not even at market weight. I would say that even holding international is not bullish, it is simply the default passive choice.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

User avatar
saltycaper
Posts: 2650
Joined: Thu Apr 24, 2014 8:47 pm
Location: The Tower

Re: what % of international stock

Post by saltycaper » Thu Aug 17, 2017 12:45 pm

Sixty percent.
Quod vitae sectabor iter?

Call_Me_Op
Posts: 7029
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 2:57 pm
Location: Milky Way

Re: what % of international stock

Post by Call_Me_Op » Thu Aug 17, 2017 1:17 pm

I have been 50-50 for many years, and intend to stay there for the foreseeable future. My choice has nothing to do with perceived valuations or relative return expectations, and everything to do with the strategy of very broad diversification.
Best regards, -Op | | "In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity." Einstein

User avatar
nedsaid
Posts: 10314
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2012 12:33 pm

Re: what % of international stock

Post by nedsaid » Thu Aug 17, 2017 2:15 pm

looking wrote:
Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:11 am
what percentage of international stock in one's portfolios in this market ???
John Bogle recommends a maximum of 20% of a stock portfolio in International. Vanguard recommends 40% of stocks in International. I have consistently recommended between 20% and 50% International, 30% seems to give you the maximum diversification benefit. From the efficient frontiers I have seen, not much difference between 20% and 50%. International Stocks are cheaper than US Stocks, particularly Emerging Markets. So it is really up to you.
A fool and his money are good for business.

cpan00b
Posts: 24
Joined: Wed May 10, 2017 9:39 pm

Re: what % of international stock

Post by cpan00b » Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:27 am

VTIAX and FSIVX have been performing pretty poorly long-term if you look at the past five years. In fact, FSIVX still has not recovered and reached its peak high from 2008. Is holding these total international stock mutual funds still a good call for long-term growth potential? I've lost out on 30% of my portfolio making any gains in the past two years and am essentially flat for these holdings whereas the US stock market seems to keep growing (and seems will eventually always recover out of bear markets, recessions etc).

typical.investor
Posts: 227
Joined: Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:17 am

Re: what % of international stock

Post by typical.investor » Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:34 am

cpan00b wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:27 am
VTIAX and FSIVX have been performing pretty poorly long-term if you look at the past five years. In fact, FSIVX still has not recovered and reached its peak high from 2008. Is holding these total international stock mutual funds still a good call for long-term growth potential? I've lost out on 30% of my portfolio making any gains in the past two years and am essentially flat for these holdings whereas the US stock market seems to keep growing (and seems will eventually always recover out of bear markets, recessions etc).
Don't go changing ...

User avatar
ruralavalon
Posts: 13936
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 10:29 am
Location: Illinois

Re: what % of international stock

Post by ruralavalon » Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:58 am

cpan00b wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:27 am
VTIAX and FSIVX have been performing pretty poorly long-term if you look at the past five years. [emphasis added] In fact, FSIVX still has not recovered and reached its peak high from 2008. Is holding these total international stock mutual funds still a good call for long-term growth potential? I've lost out on 30% of my portfolio making any gains in the past two years and am essentially flat [emphasis added] for these holdings whereas the US stock market seems to keep growing (and seems will eventually always recover out of bear markets, recessions etc).
Its easy to see past performance, but hard to predict future performance.

Five years is not long-term, it is short-term. Two years is almost meaningless.

Short-term past performance is not a good predictor of future performance. Wiki article, "Callan periodic table of investment returns".That table shows annual returns for nine fund types ranked best to worst over the years 1999-2018 (20 years).
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

User avatar
vineviz
Posts: 1681
Joined: Tue May 15, 2018 1:55 pm

Re: what % of international stock

Post by vineviz » Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:33 pm

ruralavalon wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:58 am
Five years is not long-term, it is short-term. Two years is almost meaningless.
This cannot be repeated often enough.

In fact, I'll quote it again.
ruralavalon wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:58 am
Five years is not long-term, it is short-term. Two years is almost meaningless.
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch

asif408
Posts: 1443
Joined: Sun Mar 02, 2014 8:34 am
Location: Florida

Re: what % of international stock

Post by asif408 » Thu Aug 02, 2018 1:09 pm

cpan00b wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:27 am
VTIAX and FSIVX have been performing pretty poorly long-term if you look at the past five years. In fact, FSIVX still has not recovered and reached its peak high from 2008. Is holding these total international stock mutual funds still a good call for long-term growth potential? I've lost out on 30% of my portfolio making any gains in the past two years and am essentially flat for these holdings whereas the US stock market seems to keep growing (and seems will eventually always recover out of bear markets, recessions etc).
Here's a five year stretch where the opposite occurred: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion2_2=100

And here is the past 2 year's performance comparison: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion2_2=100

Other than a slight underperformance in the last few months, I'm not seeing the flat return you are referencing. 13% vs 17% is not what I would call flat.

Post Reply