Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

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HomerJ
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Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

Post by HomerJ » Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:44 am

TomatoTomahto wrote:Anecdata (n=1): I made my deposit on my Model X a full year before I even knew about the $7500 credit. It didn't affect my decision at all
Yeah, well, you're a billionaire or something... :)

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Fri Aug 11, 2017 1:56 pm

HomerJ wrote:
TomatoTomahto wrote:Anecdata (n=1): I made my deposit on my Model X a full year before I even knew about the $7500 credit. It didn't affect my decision at all
Yeah, well, you're a billionaire or something... :)
Nah, that's either my wife or kid you're thinking of :D
My point, poorly made, was that Tesla's success in the past wasn't much affected by rebates on very expensive cars, but that $7500 for a $35k car buyer is a more significant factor.

wrongfunds
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Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

Post by wrongfunds » Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:11 pm

Boston ice merchants, shipping to Europe, became more efficient and charged lower prices after refrigeration technology was invented. They kept going for decades before finally being totally defeated, and almost lost to memory.
It is too bad that we did not have internet during that time. I would love to find out what ice merchants and their shareholders thought about the refrigeration technology. If only there was wayback machine archiving those old news papers and shareholder material!

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celia
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Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

Post by celia » Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:42 pm

wrongfunds wrote:It is too bad that we did not have internet during that time. I would love to find out what ice merchants and their shareholders thought about the refrigeration technology. If only there was wayback machine archiving those old news papers and shareholder material!
Here's the Wayback Machine you requested!

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Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

Post by roamin survivor » Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:48 pm

Quickfoot wrote: The mass market simply isn't going to abandon the existing manufacturers to buy a Tesla when they can get an all electric Ford Taurus or Lexus.
Right now there isn't. Selection is slim and even with manufacturers, there's no indication they're going in on this at all. The Honda Fit EV was only a trial lease of 3 years, Chevy just killed the Spark EV, many like Toyota have nothing. Sure, there are plans for 2019/20, but that's all they are right now.
Quickfoot wrote: They aren't the leader now, Nissan is, and with VW going all electric and the other major brands following suit or significantly investing in electric it is unlikely Tesla will ever be the leader. Even if they were able to build an amazing car they lack the capability or experience to mass produce it.

Tesla has to learn how to make an entire car (something they've said several times they don't know how to do well yet) while all the major manufacturers need to do is make an electric power-train function in their existing fleet essentially the same work they do already when they adopt new engines.

Tesla isn't lucky enough to have a product that's being ignored by the rest of the industry like what happened with personal computers; they have a product the rest of the industry is racing to also offer and that industry has efficiency of scale and experience on its side. Tesla will likely wind up designing and implementing power trains for the other companies and manufacturing batteries, etc.

Tesla is essentially Blackberry, things didn't go well for Blackberry once the general public actually became interested in smart phones and large experienced companies started producing them.
Yes, they may end up being the Blackberry, but at the same time, they may end up being the iPhone. Like when smartphones (and cell phones for that matter) first came about, quality really varies. Nissan may be the cheapest, but it comes at a cost with the battery technology, which may hinder success. Air-cooling, okay range, and slow charge times means more work and battery degradation that the mass consumer may not fall for. At least, it's giving me lots of second-looks. I'm also sure that whole "range-anxiety" thing will be what consumers would focus on the most and the rankings are Bolt, Tesla, and Leaf in descending order.

I feel at the moment that Tesla will be the iPhone/Prius of EVs: front-runner/majority leader into a strong market share. The EV field would narrow down into liquid-cooled battery tech over air (like how auto takes over manual) and with the CHAdeMO plug dying off to leave the SAE Combo and Tesla Supercharger (like how mobile phone chargers are now lightning (Apple) or micro-USB (almost everything else)). The Tesla supercharger network is also a strong advantage for them as well.

Of course, no matter what, Tesla still needs to turn a profit. Even if failing, there's still a strong incentive for a manufacturer to buy them for the tech and base.

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Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

Post by wrongfunds » Fri Aug 11, 2017 4:37 pm

celia wrote:
wrongfunds wrote:It is too bad that we did not have internet during that time. I would love to find out what ice merchants and their shareholders thought about the refrigeration technology. If only there was wayback machine archiving those old news papers and shareholder material!
Here's the Wayback Machine you requested!
I sure hope you were kidding. The machine which can recover web pages from 1876 has to be yet invented.

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Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

Post by Helo80 » Fri Aug 11, 2017 5:39 pm

Valuethinker wrote: ICE are at the end of a 110 year development cycle. EVs are just beginning.

Sure... nobody is arguing against that. Rather, it's premature and illogical for the Economist to be calling the death of the ICE.

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Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

Post by Helo80 » Fri Aug 11, 2017 5:49 pm

Valuethinker wrote: But your ICE car can't move cargo and passengers across the Pacific Ocean either, can it? In fact, ICE is relatively new technology in that regard-- see Vaclav Smil's book on motive engines (Smil is Bill Gates' favourite author). Until around the 1950s, it was steam turbines that were primarily used in marine propulsion (the Parsons Turbine). Now it is pretty universally Wartsila Diesels, although military went gas turbine technology, for fuel economy reasons civilian never went that way (Sea Land did build some 30 knot container ships, which were uneconomic, eventually the US Navy leased them for prepositioning ships, I believe).
I was primarily referring to airplanes as an airplane running out of battery power or having a lithium cell explode at 35,000 feet will be disastrous. We'll know all EVs are ready for prime-time when the United States Government deems all electric transportation means (plane, helicopter, car) for the President of the United States is acceptable.

It's not a matter of me wishing against EV, Musk or Tesla... it's a matter of where we're at now and scientific and engineering principles.

Back to the original point of this thread... I think Tesla is very much like a lotto ticket. Personally, I do not think they will be around making cars in 20 years... I'll hedge my bet and say widespread car production like when you think Toyota, Honda, GM, Ford, Chrysler, etc. They may be around as a niche maker.

Apple did not invent the smartphone... they made the smartphone cool and something the masses would want. Apple's greatest strength is that they have built the Apple ecosystem very well. Had they not, Android would have taken an even more significant portion of Apple's market. Samsung took away considerable market share from Apple and now the Chinese companies are coming in and creating alternatives for an even lower profit margin.


EDIT: Much like the point you made, and it's a good point, again, not saying ICE is the future and EV is a dead technology. Rather, it's going to be quite a ways away before we see EV as being the norm ---- much like how your steam turbines were around until the 50s.

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Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

Post by just frank » Fri Aug 11, 2017 6:19 pm

Helo80 wrote:
Valuethinker wrote: ICE are at the end of a 110 year development cycle. EVs are just beginning.
Sure... nobody is arguing against that. Rather, it's premature and illogical for the Economist to be calling the death of the ICE.
Why? The article makes it clear that shipping and aviation will be ICE for the foreseeable future. And that for cars it will be a decade-ish process. How is that premature? Price parity on total cost of ownership on 200+ mile EVs is close....as in next year or two....not some far out extrapolation. Its also clear that a lot (most) of car companies have jumped on the bandwagon...what do you know that they don't?

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Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

Post by Valuethinker » Sat Aug 12, 2017 10:26 am

Helo80 wrote:
Fri Aug 11, 2017 5:49 pm
Valuethinker wrote: But your ICE car can't move cargo and passengers across the Pacific Ocean either, can it? In fact, ICE is relatively new technology in that regard-- see Vaclav Smil's book on motive engines (Smil is Bill Gates' favourite author). Until around the 1950s, it was steam turbines that were primarily used in marine propulsion (the Parsons Turbine). Now it is pretty universally Wartsila Diesels, although military went gas turbine technology, for fuel economy reasons civilian never went that way (Sea Land did build some 30 knot container ships, which were uneconomic, eventually the US Navy leased them for prepositioning ships, I believe).
I was primarily referring to airplanes as an airplane running out of battery power or having a lithium cell explode at 35,000 feet will be disastrous. We'll know all EVs are ready for prime-time when the United States Government deems all electric transportation means (plane, helicopter, car) for the President of the United States is acceptable.
Since a US president does not travel by Internal Combustion Engine for all 3 modes now, by your definition ICE is not ready for prime time? (helicopters and jet planes don't use ICEs, they use versions of gas turbines-- gas turbines are not used in passenger cars). [EDIT I am debating whether we can call a gas turbine an ICE or not. The Economist clearly means it in the context of a (?reciprocating?) engine i.e. one with pistons. I think of a GT as being a form of external combustion. But maybe it is an ICE. Nonetheless, the piston engine is not used to move the US president around other than in a car/ SUV type vehicle].

Nor does the average car user need a Formula One Maclaren. The US president has very specific needs in terms of protection, etc., which the average car user just does not need.

EVs are about how the average person travels to and from work (not sure what the average US commute is but I suspect around 30 miles?). How they go shopping (15 miles?). How UPS does its deliveries (in London, some of those are already EVs). When you whistle up the self driving car/ taxi, how it propels itself.
It's not a matter of me wishing against EV, Musk or Tesla... it's a matter of where we're at now and scientific and engineering principles.
I would say you are missing what is going on here. By analogy it was questioned why a $3,000 on a desktop would ever replace an IBM 370 mainframe with 200 terminals, which after all allow nationwide access. And, in the words of Ken Olsen, Chairman of DEC*, "What would anyone do with a home computer?" Or a digital camera that took a lousy grainy shot that was inferior by several orders of magnitude to a film camera.

The reality is an EV meets a somewhat different set of needs. That's the nature of disruptive innovation-- it doesn't replace the existing product (at first) any more than the first IBM PC was a threat to the OS 370 mainframe (or even the DEC VAX minis). At the moment car users buy something which is over specced for 90% (99%?) of their usage in terms of weight, range and max speed etc. They pay a lot of money for it (but increasingly they never own it).

There is also an external dynamic at play. The world needs to move to zero emission vehicles. At the present time that means either EVs or hydrogen fuel cells, and the latter are way more expensive and don't meet the performance requirement. The world will move to zero emission personal transport, although the timing is uncertain (the electricity system or hydrogen production system also has to be zero emission to make that work).
Back to the original point of this thread... I think Tesla is very much like a lotto ticket. Personally, I do not think they will be around making cars in 20 years... I'll hedge my bet and say widespread car production like when you think Toyota, Honda, GM, Ford, Chrysler, etc. They may be around as a niche maker.
That would be my view too BUT industry incumbents seldom survive disruptive change. They are too focused on meeting the needs of their existing customer segment, to see the iceberg that is about to hit them.

I think the mainstream auto OEMs can see this one coming, but for them to respond is difficult. Because the car that it will necessitate is fundamentally quite different than what they are making now. There will be an awful temptation to assume it isn't going to happen.

The intriguing thought I had was whether Foxcon, or some someone like that, could simply go into the car making business, with all the drivetrain issues stripped out? Could Foxcon (or Magna, or Johnson Controls) start making "generic" cars that the auto manufacturer rebrands to sell?
Apple did not invent the smartphone... they made the smartphone cool and something the masses would want. Apple's greatest strength is that they have built the Apple ecosystem very well. Had they not, Android would have taken an even more significant portion of Apple's market. Samsung took away considerable market share from Apple and now the Chinese companies are coming in and creating alternatives for an even lower profit margin.
Yes, but someone did it. That's the point. The smartphone was invented, and became a huge success. I am actually not sure that Samsung "took away" market share from Apple. Does the VW Polo or the Hyundai i10 or the Honda Fit (Jazz -- sorry I think these cars have different names in USA?) take away market share from BMW? In other words, there's a lot of market segments out there.
EDIT: Much like the point you made, and it's a good point, again, not saying ICE is the future and EV is a dead technology. Rather, it's going to be quite a ways away before we see EV as being the norm ---- much like how your steam turbines were around until the 50s.
In the sense that the 100 mpg ICE is likely-- whether due to clever technology or hybrid powerplants. And for heavy traction, you are still going to need diesel engines, probably (or rather diesel-electric, as in almost all locomotives).

David Egerton, a historian of science and society, wrote The Shock of the Old, which is about technological change from a user point of view. The main theme of that book is that "legacy" technologies lasted a long teim.

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Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

Post by linenfort » Mon Aug 14, 2017 1:00 am

B2 is the grade actually.

'a full five notches into speculative, or “junk,” territory'

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mind-t ... 2017-08-10
linenfort wrote:
Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:28 pm
What is the grade on the upcoming Tesla bond again? B- :D
I think the yield is supposed to be 5.25%. 8-year bond if I recall.
Did anyone else play Acquire as a child?

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Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

Post by wrongfunds » Mon Aug 14, 2017 1:06 pm

Any news if the bond was under/over subscribed?

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Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

Post by 4nursebee » Mon Aug 14, 2017 7:07 pm

1.5B bond stretched to 1.8B.

Some of the bearish camp here should have reached out to the bond buyers to educate them...those poor rich people. ( I think the bond buying suggests big money continues to have strong interest and belief in success of the company)
4nursebee

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Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

Post by ray.james » Mon Aug 14, 2017 7:13 pm

I like their solar bonds though. 5.5% for 2-3 year terms. Pretty sweet deal when they offer.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939

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Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

Post by Valuethinker » Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:49 am

ray.james wrote:
Mon Aug 14, 2017 7:13 pm
I like their solar bonds though. 5.5% for 2-3 year terms. Pretty sweet deal when they offer.
What's the security if the company goes bust?

The other bonds will get the square root of nothing if Tesla goes under - at least from my speed read of the Bloomberg piece.

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Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

Post by Valuethinker » Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:50 am

4nursebee wrote:
Mon Aug 14, 2017 7:07 pm
1.5B bond stretched to 1.8B.

Some of the bearish camp here should have reached out to the bond buyers to educate them...those poor rich people. ( I think the bond buying suggests big money continues to have strong interest and belief in success of the company)
I suspect it's the name brand recognition.

The equity has option value on the success of the company.

The debt? Limited upside.

UNLESS the strategy is deeper. The distressed debt funds are buying, thinking that Tesla will get into financial trouble, and they, as debt holders, will wind up owning the company.

Subtle if true. My speed read of Bloomberg suggested no real security on the bonds-- lots of creditors in front of you. But I haven't read the Prospectus. Have you?

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Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

Post by wrongfunds » Tue Aug 15, 2017 10:25 am

If the Tesla becomes the 2008 version of GM (aka becomes Government Tesla) won't both the shareholders and the bond holders would get wiped out? I do not believe there is any provision in the current bonds to become stock, at least some of the news reports that I read lead me to believe that.

Ratings being junk and still being oversubscribed tends to tell me that people buying this do not believe they are junk or think that in the current low interest rate climate, this 5+% rate is adequately compensating their risk. No AAA rated bonds is paying 5% interest rate!

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Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

Post by Valuethinker » Tue Aug 15, 2017 11:19 am

wrongfunds wrote:
Tue Aug 15, 2017 10:25 am
If the Tesla becomes the 2008 version of GM (aka becomes Government Tesla) won't both the shareholders and the bond holders would get wiped out? I do not believe there is any provision in the current bonds to become stock, at least some of the news reports that I read lead me to believe that.
When a restructuring takes place, there are different levels of credit-- usually bank loans and equipment leases and mortgages first, usually bonds last. At which point in a restructuring, an "equity for debt swap" debtholders are given most or 100% of the company, and equity holders get nothing. Bond holders may get 1% between all of them, or they might get a lot more-- it's hard to determine until it is done.

GM was unique. I am vague on the details but the US government stepped in, and as part of the preconditions for the deal, even secured bondholders got very little - c. 10 cents on the dollar. A lot of them were very angry about that, in a normal bankruptcy they would have got a lot more.
Ratings being junk and still being oversubscribed tends to tell me that people buying this do not believe they are junk or think that in the current low interest rate climate, this 5+% rate is adequately compensating their risk. No AAA rated bonds is paying 5% interest rate!
There are only 6 private corporations in the world that are AAA. Taking the 10 year US Treasury (still AAA I believe) the yield is around 2%. So 300 bips (3.0%) spread.

Basically if there is a 3% chance of default in any given year for this bond, and recovery post default is zero, then it is overpriced compared to the comparable US Treasury.

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Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

Post by Helo80 » Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:58 pm

WSJ: Tesla Bonds Tumble in Sign of Concern Over Finances - https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-bond ... 1503350854

Zero Hedge: Tesla Bonds Are Now Riskier Than Ukraine's http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-2 ... r-ukraines

WSJ: Tesla’s Push to Build a Self-Driving Car Sparked Dissent Among Its Engineers
Elon Musk’s ambitious goals for Autopilot technology have prompted safety warnings and resignations
https://www.wsj.com/articles/teslas-pus ... 1503593742

The Guardian: Tesla factory workers reveal pain, injury and stress: 'Everything feels like the future but us' https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... -elon-musk

Zero Hedge: Tesla Is Now Bigger Than Ford, GM, And BMW... http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-0 ... gm-and-bmw (especially enlightening when you compare market cap per car sold)


Several points since people have taken issues with what I've said about internal combustion engines versus electric vehicles:
1. I don't own any Tesla stock nor any other automaker (beyond index funds)
2. I do not root for Musk's success or failure any more than the other auto companies (though, I really do not like any Chrysler product or brand)
3. I am not saying that EV sales will never surpass ICE sales for passenger vehicles in America, but it's going to be a longer time frame than Reddit, LinkedIn, and other social networks, like this one, think.

To me, investing in Tesla is very much like investing in the lottery. Maybe Elon will do something amazing next year.... like actually deliver the 500,000 vehicles he claims he will deliver. Historically, Musk does not have the best track record on delivering on promises.

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Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Aug 25, 2017 8:55 am

Helo80 wrote:
Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:58 pm
WSJ: Tesla Bonds Tumble in Sign of Concern Over Finances - https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-bond ... 1503350854

Zero Hedge: Tesla Bonds Are Now Riskier Than Ukraine's http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-2 ... r-ukraines

WSJ: Tesla’s Push to Build a Self-Driving Car Sparked Dissent Among Its Engineers
Elon Musk’s ambitious goals for Autopilot technology have prompted safety warnings and resignations
https://www.wsj.com/articles/teslas-pus ... 1503593742

The Guardian: Tesla factory workers reveal pain, injury and stress: 'Everything feels like the future but us' https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... -elon-musk

Zero Hedge: Tesla Is Now Bigger Than Ford, GM, And BMW... http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-0 ... gm-and-bmw (especially enlightening when you compare market cap per car sold)


Several points since people have taken issues with what I've said about internal combustion engines versus electric vehicles:
1. I don't own any Tesla stock nor any other automaker (beyond index funds)
2. I do not root for Musk's success or failure any more than the other auto companies (though, I really do not like any Chrysler product or brand)
3. I am not saying that EV sales will never surpass ICE sales for passenger vehicles in America, but it's going to be a longer time frame than Reddit, LinkedIn, and other social networks, like this one, think.
It's good you qualified that to "in America". Because there's a bigger world out here than the one with the lowest gasoline prices in the (non Middle Eastern) world. 5 years ago I would have agreed with you, but now I am not so sure. This change is happening.

There are factors out there which could make it happen even faster than we think. I don't know what the consensus "social media" estimate is out there, but I think 2030s for that crossover point is now quite possible (i.e. say 15-20 years). Major unknown for me is whether hydrogen fuel cell vehicles come up from behind, but so far little sign of it.
To me, investing in Tesla is very much like investing in the lottery. Maybe Elon will do something amazing next year.... like actually deliver the 500,000 vehicles he claims he will deliver. Historically, Musk does not have the best track record on delivering on promises.
I agree about the lottery-like characteristics. I think the valuation weights it on the downside though-- it's incredible to me that it has gotten this high.

And I agree re Musk and missed promises.

Whether he succeeds from here or not, Musk has put himself into the history books as one of the early pioneers of EVs. Tesla may turn into an interesting footnote: who here today remembers Packard, Studebaker, McLaughlin, the Stanley Steamer, the Dobie?

However with disruptive innovations, the corpses of industry incumbents that could not make the leap to the new technology and business model, litter the pathways of history. EVs are most definitely a disruptive innovation.

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Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

Post by just frank » Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:35 pm

Helo80 wrote:
Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:58 pm

3. I am not saying that EV sales will never surpass ICE sales for passenger vehicles in America, but it's going to be a longer time frame than Reddit, LinkedIn, and other social networks, like this one, think.
I will take your opinion more seriously if you have test driven a couple EVs. If so, what are your impressions? :beer

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Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

Post by Nate79 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 8:42 pm

There are about 18 million car passenger vehicles sold in the US every year. A majority of these are trucks and SUVs. Its really hard to imagine EVs making a large dent in this segment, especially trucks, which would be required to have a so called cross over point. Even with all the emphasis of fuel economy, hybrids, EVs, etc trucks still remain by far dominant in the most sold models and are major profit driver's for manufacturers. Hybrids have been a failure in this segment and all EV would be laughable to have anything but a niche player.

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Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

Post by Helo80 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 9:07 pm

Nate79 wrote:
Fri Aug 25, 2017 8:42 pm
There are about 18 million car passenger vehicles sold in the US every year. A majority of these are trucks and SUVs. Its really hard to imagine EVs making a large dent in this segment, especially trucks, which would be required to have a so called cross over point. Even with all the emphasis of fuel economy, hybrids, EVs, etc trucks still remain by far dominant in the most sold models and are major profit driver's for manufacturers. Hybrids have been a failure in this segment and all EV would be laughable to have anything but a niche player.
This is a greater issue at hand now. Americans like big cars. This is the market that brought the H2 (even though it was tiny on the inside), but high gas prices absolutely killed the thing. But, with gas prices as they are, we're moving back towards larger vehicles. In terms of oil, we have more than we know what to do with. Sedan sales are down across the board. SUV sales are up. Truck sales continue to be strong.

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Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

Post by Helo80 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 9:08 pm

just frank wrote:
Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:35 pm

I will take your opinion more seriously if you have test driven a couple EVs. If so, what are your impressions? :beer
If i were spending that kind of money on a car, it would be either an Escalade, S-class or Maserati.

I am not saying the Tesla is not a cool car... just not at the price they are asking IMHO. But hey, Elon is going to deliver 500K units next year, and I hope that you remind me of that.

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Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Fri Aug 25, 2017 9:15 pm

Helo80 wrote:
Fri Aug 25, 2017 9:08 pm
just frank wrote:
Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:35 pm

I will take your opinion more seriously if you have test driven a couple EVs. If so, what are your impressions? :beer
If i were spending that kind of money on a car, it would be either an Escalade, S-class or Maserati.

I am not saying the Tesla is not a cool car... just not at the price they are asking IMHO. But hey, Elon is going to deliver 500K units next year, and I hope that you remind me of that.
Well, so, have you test-driven a Tesla?

Btw, an S-class is a worthy contender. Maserati? Let me just say that my neighbor is trying to get out of his Maserati lease so that he can get a Model X to match his wife's X. He says it's no contest.

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Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

Post by Helo80 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 9:17 pm

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Fri Aug 25, 2017 9:15 pm
Well, so, have you test-driven a Tesla?
I have not. I also have not driven the other three, nor am I willing to spend that kind of money on a car.
TomatoTomahto wrote:
Fri Aug 25, 2017 9:15 pm
Btw, an S-class is a worthy contender. Maserati? Let me just say that my neighbor is trying to get out of his Maserati lease so that he can get a Model X to match his wife's X. He says it's no contest.
I like the interiors because that's where I am located as the car owner. Maserati's have nice interiors.

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Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Fri Aug 25, 2017 9:44 pm

Helo80 wrote:
Fri Aug 25, 2017 9:17 pm
I like the interiors because that's where I am located as the car owner. Maserati's have nice interiors.
That's what makes horse races. My wife prefers the interior of her Range Rover, so I have not been able to talk her into a Tesla. Maybe the trick is to get her to drive mine more often, so that the driving experience outweighs the experience of the interior.

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Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

Post by just frank » Sat Aug 26, 2017 6:48 am

Helo80 wrote:
Fri Aug 25, 2017 9:17 pm
TomatoTomahto wrote:
Fri Aug 25, 2017 9:15 pm
Well, so, have you test-driven a Tesla?
I have not. I also have not driven the other three, nor am I willing to spend that kind of money on a car.
There are a lot of EV options (both battery only and plug-in hybrid) that cost less than half as much as a Tesla....you might test drive some of those!

The issue here is that EVs provide a **superior** driving experience, and are doing so at an exponentially falling cost. This is not about fuel economy or the environment.

The motto of the coming EV disruption is: "Porsche performance, Chevy price". And its not a Tesla story.....ALL the makers are diving in.

When you can buy a long-range EV for what you are currently spending on an ICE car (or less), you won't hesitate....nor will most other people. Current price trends put that about 4-5 years out, not 15 or 25. Total cost of ownership is at parity for some models NOW.

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