international mutual funds [good or bad investment?]

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bsbgrafton
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international mutual funds [good or bad investment?]

Post by bsbgrafton » Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:14 am

Jack Bogle did not think International mutual funds were a good investment. Does this forum still feel this way.
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bsbgrafton

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flamesabers
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Re: international mutual funds [good or bad investment?]

Post by flamesabers » Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:38 am

There is already a recent thread on this topic:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=220873&start=50

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ruralavalon
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Re: international mutual funds [good or bad investment?]

Post by ruralavalon » Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:40 am

Welcome to the forum :D .

bsbgrafton wrote:Jack Bogle did not think International mutual funds were a good investment. Does this forum still feel this way.
Thanks
bsbgrafton

Opinions vary, all the way from investing 00% of stocks in international stocks to 50% of stocks in international stocks. Personally I have about 25% of stocks in international stocks.

You can use the Google search box (upper right) to find discussions on general topics. Also look on the Bogleheads wiki.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

munemaker
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Re: international mutual funds [good or bad investment?]

Post by munemaker » Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:07 pm

Two giants of the investing industry, Bogle and Buffet, advise against international funds.

Here's a supporting article: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-1 ... ace-invest

“I believe the U.S. is the best place to invest,” Bogle said in a telephone interview. “We probably have the most technology oriented economy in the world. I would bet that the U.S. will do better than the rest of the world. It is a simple bet on which economy is going to be the strongest in the long run.”

“Every single person I think I have ever talked to tells me I am wrong in this,” Bogle said. “If you believe in the majority, you can just throw my opinion in the waste basket. But on the other hand, I was brought up in this business and I am saying ‘the crowd is always wrong.’”

It is usually wise to follow their advice and not the herd. To address OP's question: The forum generally does favor international investing, but Jack says the crowd is always wrong.

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nisiprius
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Re: international mutual funds [good or bad investment?]

Post by nisiprius » Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:45 pm

bsbgrafton wrote:Jack Bogle did not think International mutual funds were a good investment. Does this forum still feel this way.
Thanks
bsbgrafton
1) The consensus in this forum has always tended to favor holding some international stock funds.

2) International stock investing is probably the point on which you are most likely to hear forum members say "I disagree with Jack Bogle."

3) John C. Bogle's statements have never been absolute. I keep meaning to find one of his own statements that expresses the whole idea concisely, but basically he's always said that you do not need international at all; he has never said you shouldn't have any--he uses phrases like "if you want"--and he has generally advised an upper limit of 20% of stocks being international.

4) There's no reason to think international mutual funds are a bad investment. That's much too strong a statement. The United States isn't the only place in the world that knows how to run profitable businesses. There are some people who just feel that--for a U.S. investor, i.e. taking currency movement into account--the small disadvantages of international stocks slightly outweigh the small diversification advantage.

5) During 2002-2008, the dollar was weakening, which--from the point of view of a U.S. investor, investing in dollars--gave a boost to international stocks, which outperformed U.S. stocks during that period. At that time, there were a lot of very insistent posts in the forum saying that everyone should be at international market cap (about 50%) international. Recency bias.

Since then the dollar has been strengthening, international stocks have underperformed, and there have been various people disappointed by international, wondering why anyone recommends it, wondering if they should be dumping it. Recency bias.

6) Watch out for projecting your personal ideology, politics, and macroeconomics into your investments. I think there's a definite tendency to invest internationally when you don't like the administration in power, and domestically when you do. I also think that's a tendency that should be resisted.

7) The thing I keep harping on is that what the data has showed is that in the past, the percentage of international stocks just never has mattered very much, ever. So the most important thing is to make up your mind, find something you are happy enough with that you can stick to it, call it good, and stay the course.
Last edited by nisiprius on Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Swansea
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Re: international mutual funds [good or bad investment?]

Post by Swansea » Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:55 pm

I have a cap of 20% of my equity on international. I started investing in international around 8 years ago, and only recently am showing a profit. However, I do think that the sector may do better as the less advanced countries should be able to generate greater productivity increases than what the U.S. will.

Jerry476
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Re: international mutual funds [good or bad investment?]

Post by Jerry476 » Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:55 pm

This is a frequent topic that will return again and again. As for me, I'll sail with Taylor...20% for international. Everyone has to makes a decision and this is mine. As he says, "There are many roads to Dublin."

munemaker
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Re: international mutual funds [good or bad investment?]

Post by munemaker » Mon Jun 19, 2017 9:30 pm

bsbgrafton wrote:Jack Bogle did not think International mutual funds were a good investment. Does this forum still feel this way.
Thanks
bsbgrafton


Do some backtesting using portfolio visualizer. Look at track records in Morningstar. Personally, I am not impressed.

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