I would appreciate comments on my asset allocation.

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mjb49
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Joined: Sat Jan 07, 2017 2:25 pm

I would appreciate comments on my asset allocation.

Postby mjb49 » Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:10 am

Hi,

After researching asset allocations from Lazy Portfolios, Bogleheads contributors, Rick Ferri, Burton Malkiel, William Bernstein and Larry Swedroe I decided on the following portfolio. Understanding the limitations of back testing I used it as a major part of my decision making.

Emergency funds: 10 months living expensed in IRA money market
Debt: 30-year Mortgage @ 3.75% until 2037. Loan to value 35%
Tax Filing Status: Married Filing Jointly
Effective Tax Rate: 13% Federal, 0% State
State of residence: Florida
Age: 67, Spouse 59, Both retired

Desired asset allocation 50% stocks / 50% bonds.
Desired international allocation 30% of stocks.

Retirement Assets:

His IRA - Value low seven-figures:

7.5% Vanguard 500 Index (VFIAX)
7.5% Vanguard Value Index (VVIAX)
7.5% Vanguard Small-Cap Index (VSMAX)
7.5% Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index (VSIAX)
5% Vanguard REIT Index Fund (VGSLX)
2.5% Vanguard Developed Markets Index (VTMGX)
5% iShares MSCI EAFE Value (EFV)
2.5% Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx (VEMAX)
5% Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Idx (VFSVX)
24% Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasuries (VFIUX)
24% Vanguard Inflation-Protected Secs (VAIPX)
2% Vanguard Money Market (VMFXX)

The MorningStar X-Ray Valuation:

Value Core Growth
19 17 11 Large
10 11 9 Med
10 11 5 Small

Questions:
1. I would appreciate any comments, criticism, or recommendations on the above portfolio's Asset allocation and Funds.

Thank you, Mike
Last edited by mjb49 on Tue Mar 21, 2017 12:34 am, edited 1 time in total.

orca91
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Re: I would appreciate comments on my asset allocation.

Postby orca91 » Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:17 am

Do you want comments on your AA or the funds you hold?

Your AA of 50/50 seems perfectly fine to me.

Your portfolio holds too many funds and too many small pieces (2.5%'ers) for my liking. But, if it works for you, that's what matters.

Congrats to you... sounds like you guys won the game! :sharebeer

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flamesabers
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Re: I would appreciate comments on my asset allocation.

Postby flamesabers » Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:24 am

orca91 wrote:Your portfolio holds too many funds and too many small pieces (2.5%'ers) for my liking. But, if it works for you, that's what matters.


Depending on the overall size of the portfolio, I think one potential downside to having lots of small pieces is having to pay the investor share fees instead of the admiral share fees. When I invest in a new fund, I prefer to invest in the admiral shares when possible to minimize fund fees.

harvestbook
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Re: I would appreciate comments on my asset allocation.

Postby harvestbook » Mon Mar 20, 2017 1:03 pm

Looks a bit like a Paul Merriman portfolio (my personal model). I use the Total Stock Market in place of S & P 500 because I like owning everything, but they perform pretty similarly. Additionally I split my international value allocation between VTRIX and total international stock just because I don't like the high fees and active management of VTRIX, but the iShares EFV seems a decent replacement. It looks like with 20 years left on your mortgage you need to maintain some moderate risk and this seems reasonable to me, and with seven figures you have a nice cushion! Good luck.

retiredjg
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Re: I would appreciate comments on my asset allocation.

Postby retiredjg » Mon Mar 20, 2017 1:14 pm

This portfolio is going to take some tending. Small slices like that tend to get out of whack faster than large slices. However, if you don't mind doing the work, the portfolio looks OK to me.

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WallStreetPhysician
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Re: I would appreciate comments on my asset allocation.

Postby WallStreetPhysician » Mon Mar 20, 2017 1:31 pm

This works, but perhaps is overkill on the number of funds. For example, I don't know the intricacies of the small cap, value, and small cap value, but couldn't you just have an allocation of small cap and value and get rid of the small cap value?

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nedsaid
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Re: I would appreciate comments on my asset allocation.

Postby nedsaid » Mon Mar 20, 2017 1:47 pm

mjb49 wrote:Hi,

After researching asset allocations from Lazy Portfolios, Bogleheads contributors, Rick Ferri, Burton Malkiel, William Bernstein and Larry Swedroe I decided on the following portfolio. Understanding the limitations of back testing I used it as a major part of my decision making.

Emergency funds: 10 months living expensed in IRA money market
Debt: 30-year Mortgage @ 3.75% until 2037. Loan to value 35%
Tax Filing Status: Married Filing Jointly
Effective Tax Rate: 13% Federal, 0% State
State of residence: Florida
Age: 67, Spouse 59, Both retired

Desired asset allocation 50% stocks / 50% bonds.
Desired international allocation 30% of stocks.

Nedsaid: I really like this as a retiree portfolio. Are you receiving any pension income? Are you collecting Social Security? The more Social Security and Pension income you are receiving, the more aggressive you can be as a retiree investor. What is your withdrawal rate from your portfolio?

Ideally it is best to have the mortgage paid off but I will likely carry a small mortgage into retirement myself.



Retirement Assets:

His IRA - Value low seven-figures:

7.5% Vanguard 500 Index (VFIAX)
7.5% Vanguard Value Index (VVIAX)
7.5% Vanguard Small-Cap Index (VSMAX)
7.5% Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index (VSIAX)
5% Vanguard REIT Index Fund (VGSLX)
2.5% Vanguard Developed Markets Index (VTMGX)
5% iShares MSCI EAFE Value (EFV)
2.5% Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx (VEMAX)
5% Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Idx (VFSVX)
24% Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasuries (VFIUX)
24% Vanguard Inflation-Protected Secs (VAIPX)
2% Vanguard Money Market (VMFXX)

Nedsaid: This is pretty much the Paul Merriman Buy and Hold portfolio. It is a good one and I am doing similar things with my own portfolio. I am a small/value tilter myself and like to overweight my mid/small-caps.

The MorningStar X-Ray Valuation:

Value Core Growth
19 17 11 Large
10 11 9 Med
10 11 5 Small

Questions:
1. I would appreciate any comments, criticism, or recommendations on the above portfolio.

Nedsaid: You have a good portfolio and I like what I see. My expectation is that you should have a 0.50% to 1.00% a year excess return over a standard three fund Taylor Larimore portfolio. The only mild criticism is that Vanguard has been criticized for not doing a very good job capturing the factors. Vanguard Small Cap Value Index has a lot of mid-caps and stocks that are not rated value. I own it myself and it has done well enough.

Thank you, Mike
A fool and his money are good for business.

mjb49
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Joined: Sat Jan 07, 2017 2:25 pm

Re: I would appreciate comments on my asset allocation.

Postby mjb49 » Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:38 am

orca91 wrote:Do you want comments on your AA or the funds you hold?

Your AA of 50/50 seems perfectly fine to me.

Your portfolio holds too many funds and too many small pieces (2.5%'ers) for my liking. But, if it works for you, that's what matters.

Congrats to you... sounds like you guys won the game! :sharebeer


Comments on AA and funds would be appreciated.

I had the same concern about the small pieces. I am using the Larry Swedroe 5/25 rule for my rebalancing and hope it keeps rebalancing manageable. The spreadsheet in the wiki is a big help.

Thanks
Last edited by mjb49 on Tue Mar 21, 2017 12:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

mjb49
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Joined: Sat Jan 07, 2017 2:25 pm

Re: I would appreciate comments on my asset allocation.

Postby mjb49 » Tue Mar 21, 2017 12:00 pm

nedsaid wrote:
mjb49 wrote:Hi,

After researching asset allocations from Lazy Portfolios, Bogleheads contributors, Rick Ferri, Burton Malkiel, William Bernstein and Larry Swedroe I decided on the following portfolio. Understanding the limitations of back testing I used it as a major part of my decision making.

Emergency funds: 10 months living expensed in IRA money market
Debt: 30-year Mortgage @ 3.75% until 2037. Loan to value 35%
Tax Filing Status: Married Filing Jointly
Effective Tax Rate: 13% Federal, 0% State
State of residence: Florida
Age: 67, Spouse 59, Both retired

Desired asset allocation 50% stocks / 50% bonds.
Desired international allocation 30% of stocks.

Nedsaid: I really like this as a retiree portfolio. Are you receiving any pension income? Are you collecting Social Security? The more Social Security and Pension income you are receiving, the more aggressive you can be as a retiree investor. What is your withdrawal rate from your portfolio?

Ideally it is best to have the mortgage paid off but I will likely carry a small mortgage into retirement myself.


My wife and I will be on Social Security in two years. I also have VA disability. I am withdrawing an inflation adjusted 4%. I am looking into other withdrawal methods and may change.

I agree about having a mortgage in retirement. We have enough equity to pay cash for a place if things get dicy and we have to get rid of the mortgage.


Retirement Assets:

His IRA - Value low seven-figures:

7.5% Vanguard 500 Index (VFIAX)
7.5% Vanguard Value Index (VVIAX)
7.5% Vanguard Small-Cap Index (VSMAX)
7.5% Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index (VSIAX)
5% Vanguard REIT Index Fund (VGSLX)
2.5% Vanguard Developed Markets Index (VTMGX)
5% iShares MSCI EAFE Value (EFV)
2.5% Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx (VEMAX)
5% Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Idx (VFSVX)
24% Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasuries (VFIUX)
24% Vanguard Inflation-Protected Secs (VAIPX)
2% Vanguard Money Market (VMFXX)

Nedsaid: This is pretty much the Paul Merriman Buy and Hold portfolio. It is a good one and I am doing similar things with my own portfolio. I am a small/value tilter myself and like to overweight my mid/small-caps.

There seems to be a lot of overlap with many of the heavy hitter's portfolio recommendations. I relied a lot on Larry Swedroe.

The MorningStar X-Ray Valuation:

Value Core Growth
19 17 11 Large
10 11 9 Med
10 11 5 Small

Questions:
1. I would appreciate any comments, criticism, or recommendations on the above portfolio.

Nedsaid: You have a good portfolio and I like what I see. My expectation is that you should have a 0.50% to 1.00% a year excess return over a standard three fund Taylor Larimore portfolio. The only mild criticism is that Vanguard has been criticized for not doing a very good job capturing the factors. Vanguard Small Cap Value Index has a lot of mid-caps and stocks that are not rated value. I own it myself and it has done well enough.


Backtesting I came up with a 1.4% higher return at 33% lower SD than the three fund portfolio. I will see how it actually goes. Do you have any SCV recommendations?

Thank you, Mike
Last edited by mjb49 on Tue Mar 21, 2017 12:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Taylor Larimore
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Location: Miami FL

Re: I would appreciate comments on my asset allocation.

Postby Taylor Larimore » Tue Mar 21, 2017 12:53 pm

Retirement Assets:

His IRA - Value low seven-figures:

7.5% Vanguard 500 Index (VFIAX)
7.5% Vanguard Value Index (VVIAX)
7.5% Vanguard Small-Cap Index (VSMAX)
7.5% Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index (VSIAX)
5% Vanguard REIT Index Fund (VGSLX)
2.5% Vanguard Developed Markets Index (VTMGX)
5% iShares MSCI EAFE Value (EFV)
2.5% Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx (VEMAX)
5% Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Idx (VFSVX)
24% Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasuries (VFIUX)
24% Vanguard Inflation-Protected Secs (VAIPX)
2% Vanguard Money Market (VMFXX)

Nedsaid: This is pretty much the Paul Merriman Buy and Hold portfolio.

Mike:

In my opinion, your IRA has too many funds. I'll also assume you have additional funds in the rest of your portfolio.

I wonder if you realize that three Total Stock Market Index Funds have more securities with better diversification than your 12 IRA funds.

The Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio has significantly underperformed the Allan Roth's Second Grader Three-Fund Portfolio during the past 1, 3, 5, and 10 years:

http://www.marketwatch.com/lazyportfolio

Consider something similar to the simple Three-Fund Portfolio. In my opinion, trying to beat the market is a losing game promoted by the financial industry.
Don't look for the needle. Buy the haystack. -- Jack Bogle

Please read the "Simplicity" link below.

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

jayhawkerbeef
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Re: I would appreciate comments on my asset allocation.

Postby jayhawkerbeef » Tue Mar 21, 2017 2:31 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:
The Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio has significantly underperformed the Allan Roth's Second Grader Three-Fund Portfolio during the past 1, 3, 5, and 10 years:r


In this example, the ultimate buy and hold is 60/40 compared to 90/10 for the second grader three fund. One would expect those to have different results over time, especially with the run up of stocks the past 8 years.

mjb49
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Re: I would appreciate comments on my asset allocation.

Postby mjb49 » Tue Mar 21, 2017 3:28 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Retirement Assets:

His IRA - Value low seven-figures:

7.5% Vanguard 500 Index (VFIAX)
7.5% Vanguard Value Index (VVIAX)
7.5% Vanguard Small-Cap Index (VSMAX)
7.5% Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index (VSIAX)
5% Vanguard REIT Index Fund (VGSLX)
2.5% Vanguard Developed Markets Index (VTMGX)
5% iShares MSCI EAFE Value (EFV)
2.5% Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx (VEMAX)
5% Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Idx (VFSVX)
24% Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasuries (VFIUX)
24% Vanguard Inflation-Protected Secs (VAIPX)
2% Vanguard Money Market (VMFXX)

Nedsaid: This is pretty much the Paul Merriman Buy and Hold portfolio.

Mike:

In my opinion, your IRA has too many funds. I'll also assume you have additional funds in the rest of your portfolio.

I wonder if you realize that three Total Stock Market Index Funds have more securities with better diversification than your 12 IRA funds.

The Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio has significantly underperformed the Allan Roth's Second Grader Three-Fund Portfolio during the past 1, 3, 5, and 10 years:

http://www.marketwatch.com/lazyportfolio

Consider something similar to the simple Three-Fund Portfolio. In my opinion, trying to beat the market is a losing game promoted by the financial industry.
Don't look for the needle. Buy the haystack. -- Jack Bogle

Please read the "Simplicity" link below.

Best wishes.
Taylor


Thank you for your comments. You are right about the 1, 3, 5, and 10 year returns using a 50/50 asset allocation. That is an eye opener! Going back 15 years there is a .7% advantage in the above portfolio's CAGR and a 10% increase in its SD. I would be interested to know why that extra 5 years made a difference. Also returns improve and SD drops when I remove the TIPS.

I keep 6 months living expenses in the MM fund.

Thank you again for your input.

Tal-
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Re: I would appreciate comments on my asset allocation.

Postby Tal- » Tue Mar 21, 2017 3:49 pm

I'm actually not a fan.

I don't especially mind the 50/50 allocation or the small/mid cap tilt - but the two seem incompatible to me. Your stock/bond allocation suggests conservative investing, which is fine. Your stock portfolio suggests aggressive investing, which is also fine. At first glance, you may be better off going a higher allocation in stocks (60/40?) with a lower small/mid cap emphasis.
Debt is to personal finance as a knife is to cooking.

Theoretical
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Re: I would appreciate comments on my asset allocation.

Postby Theoretical » Tue Mar 21, 2017 4:27 pm

Tal- wrote:I'm actually not a fan.

I don't especially mind the 50/50 allocation or the small/mid cap tilt - but the two seem incompatible to me. Your stock/bond allocation suggests conservative investing, which is fine. Your stock portfolio suggests aggressive investing, which is also fine. At first glance, you may be better off going a higher allocation in stocks (60/40?) with a lower small/mid cap emphasis.


Actually, they're often hand in hand, especially for moderate to heavy tilts. The small (esp) and Value tilts significantly increase the portfolio volatility, hence the higher bond allocation. I'd say this portfolio is a hair more volatile than a 60/40

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Taylor Larimore
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Re: I would appreciate comments on my asset allocation.

Postby Taylor Larimore » Tue Mar 21, 2017 4:33 pm

Thank you for your comments. You are right about the 1, 3, 5, and 10 year returns using a 50/50 asset allocation. That is an eye opener! Going back 15 years there is a .7% advantage in the above portfolio's CAGR and a 10% increase in its SD. I would be interested to know why that extra 5 years made a difference. Also returns improve and SD drops when I remove the TIPS.

I keep 6 months living expenses in the MM fund.

Thank you again for your input.

Mike:

I would not pay much attention to "past performance." Even the government requires a mutual fund to tell you that "past performance does not guarantee future performance." Read this:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=156573&newpost=2349057

Are you sure that you want to hold 6 months living expense in a low-return MM fund you may never need? Can't you get money in an emergency from your bank account, portfolio, credit card, bank loan, family, etc.? You can withdraw your contributions in a Roth IRA any time for any reason without penalty or tax. Strive for simplicity.

Best wishes
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

Vanguard Fan 1367
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Re: I would appreciate comments on my asset allocation.

Postby Vanguard Fan 1367 » Tue Mar 21, 2017 6:43 pm

I also think you have too many funds. I might ideally consider Vanguard Total Stock Market Index for 50% and some sort of bond mix that makes you comfortable if you want a 50 50 stock bond mix.

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knpstr
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Re: I would appreciate comments on my asset allocation.

Postby knpstr » Tue Mar 21, 2017 6:55 pm

Has a lot to keep track of, but generally speaking, it looks good!

:beer
Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking. -Marcus Aurelius

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nedsaid
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Re: I would appreciate comments on my asset allocation.

Postby nedsaid » Wed Mar 22, 2017 8:30 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Retirement Assets:

His IRA - Value low seven-figures:

7.5% Vanguard 500 Index (VFIAX)
7.5% Vanguard Value Index (VVIAX)
7.5% Vanguard Small-Cap Index (VSMAX)
7.5% Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index (VSIAX)
5% Vanguard REIT Index Fund (VGSLX)
2.5% Vanguard Developed Markets Index (VTMGX)
5% iShares MSCI EAFE Value (EFV)
2.5% Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx (VEMAX)
5% Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Idx (VFSVX)
24% Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasuries (VFIUX)
24% Vanguard Inflation-Protected Secs (VAIPX)
2% Vanguard Money Market (VMFXX)

Nedsaid: This is pretty much the Paul Merriman Buy and Hold portfolio.

Mike:

In my opinion, your IRA has too many funds. I'll also assume you have additional funds in the rest of your portfolio.

I wonder if you realize that three Total Stock Market Index Funds have more securities with better diversification than your 12 IRA funds.

The Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio has significantly underperformed the Allan Roth's Second Grader Three-Fund Portfolio during the past 1, 3, 5, and 10 years:

http://www.marketwatch.com/lazyportfolio

Consider something similar to the simple Three-Fund Portfolio. In my opinion, trying to beat the market is a losing game promoted by the financial industry.
Don't look for the needle. Buy the haystack. -- Jack Bogle

Please read the "Simplicity" link below.

Best wishes.
Taylor


Here is the deal. A Merriman Small/Value tilted portfolio will not outperform all of the time. For example, the aftermath of the 2008-2009 bear market was a tough period for Value stocks. Value underperformed the broad market from 2009-2015. That period, as I recall also favored the larger growth stocks. So of course, the Merriman portfolio would have underperformed. I suspect that 2016 would have been much better for Merriman as 2016 was a great Value and a great Small-Cap year.

A Merriman portfolio would have underperformed during the 1990's, which was a Large-Cap Growth decade. Merriman would have outperformed from 2000-August 2008, which was a Small-Cap and Value decade. Merriman splits stocks 50/50 between US and International which would have helped during 2000-August 2008 but would not have helped during the 1990's.

You have market trends where Small outperforms Large and visa versa. Sometimes Value does better than Growth and sometimes Growth does better than Value. Sometimes US outperforms International and sometimes International outperforms US. You have to understand this about markets.

The Merriman portfolio invests across factors. Market, Size, and Value. A three fund portfolio invests only in Market. This is a whole other discussion but suffice to say that the academics have shown that over long periods of time that Small outperforms Large and that Value outperforms Growth. So a Merriman portfolio requires a long term commitment and riding out market trends which can last a decade.

Also, the Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold portfolio is a 60% stock/40% bond portfolio. The Allan Roth Second Grader's portfolio is a 90% stock/10% stock portfolio. As another poster pointed out, this is an unfair comparison. A better comparison would be 30% US Total Stock Market Index, 30% Total International Stock Index, and 40% Total Bond Market Index. Merriman splits US Stocks and International Stocks 50/50 where Roth splits his stocks 2/3 US and 1/3 International. Taylor was comparing apples and oranges.
A fool and his money are good for business.

jayhawkerbeef
Posts: 226
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Re: I would appreciate comments on my asset allocation.

Postby jayhawkerbeef » Thu Mar 23, 2017 10:22 am

As I've mentioned above and Nedsaid's recent post.

From Porfolio Visualizer.

Also used a hybrid UB&H portfolio discussed here. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=38374 for the US/Int split. Plus Merriman, for international Int SC is increased over developed.

Portfolio Analysis Results (Jan 1995 - Feb 2017)
Note: The time period was automatically adjusted based on the available data (1995-2017) for the selected asset class: International ex-US Small Cap

This assumes annual rebalance and no new contributions.

Portfolio 1
Asset Class Allocation
US Stock Market 13.50%
US Small Cap Value 13.50%
Intl Developed ex-US Market 9.00%
International ex-US Small Cap 12.00%
Emerging Markets 6.00%
Total US Bond Market 40.00%
REIT 6.00%

Portfolio 2
Asset Class Allocation
US Stock Market 30.00%
Global ex-US Stock Market 30.00%
Total US Bond Market 40.00%

Portfolio performance statistics
#Initial Balance Final Balance CAGR Stdev Best Year Worst Year Max. Drawdown Sharpe Ratio Sortino Ratio US Mkt Correlation
1 $10,000 $57,558 8.22% 9.32% 27.90% -21.41% -34.84% 0.64 0.95 0.90
2 $10,000 $45,787 7.10% 9.20% 23.10% -22.32% -33.59% 0.54 0.78 0.94

What stands out is there is practically the same amount of risk with the potential for higher return.


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