"Don't time the market" vs. "Buy low, sell high"

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nedsaid
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Re: "Don't time the market" vs. "Buy low, sell high"

Postby nedsaid » Sun Mar 19, 2017 10:00 am

avalpert wrote:
nedsaid wrote:Wow. I thought "buy low, sell high" was pretty fundamental to investing. Silly me.

It is silly you. Buy low, sell high is fundamental to investing in a trite content-less cliched way just like 'never lose money'. When people take that triteness and try to make it actionable they are likely to make mistakes - particularly they will be prone to try to guess whether we are high or low today relative to tomorrow, something people tend to not be very good about guessing.

At the end of the day, what should really be advocated is buy when funds are available and sell when funds are needed - because over time we expect positive returns so the more time you are invested the better off you will be.


Obviously, you don't read my posts. I have explained myself in great detail on this forum. Some posts are short and sweet and others are lengthy. Buy low, sell high is not a trite phrase. It is a fundamental precept of investing. If you don't believe that valuations matter, it is a free country and you can believe whatever you want. I am amazed at the length to which people will pursue semantic games around here.

There is also a thing called expressing yourself in short-hand. Buy low, sell high is a way of expressing something in a short phrase. Sometimes I express myself in short-hand so that my posts don't run paragraphs and paragraphs.
A fool and his money are good for business.

finite_difference
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Re: "Don't time the market" vs. "Buy low, sell high"

Postby finite_difference » Sun Mar 19, 2017 10:01 am

One can lead to financial disaster for you and your family. (For example, moving your entire portfolio to cash near the bottom of the 2009 recession and then moving it back to all stocks in 2015.)

The other is a natural consequence of following the Boglehead way.
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh

avalpert
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Re: "Don't time the market" vs. "Buy low, sell high"

Postby avalpert » Sun Mar 19, 2017 11:38 am

There is also a thing called expressing yourself in short-hand. Buy low, sell high is a way of expressing something in a short phrase. Sometimes I express myself in short-hand so that my posts don't run paragraphs and paragraphs.

Yes, communicating in short-hand is great for private languages (i.e. communicating among small groups of people with shared understanding of the jargon being used) and con men (i.e. communicating generally in a way that sounds profound but lacks enough context to be truly meaningful and is easily used to convince people it means whatever you say next is a great idea).

So yeah, in the context of an investing forum intended for general education I would say short-hand is great for use in the second sense I provide and trite, and misleading, for any other purpose.


nedsaid wrote:Obviously, you don't read my posts. I have explained myself in great detail on this forum. Some posts are short and sweet and others are lengthy.

I got to be honest, I am quite familiar with you on this forum but I have a hard time remembering every individual's tendencies and overall approach.

Buy low, sell high is not a trite phrase. It is a fundamental precept of investing.

Sure, fundamental like Buffet's 'don't lose money', 'penny wise pound foolish' - and trite in the same exact way. Without specific context and explanation on their own they are content-less. Buy low and sell high is a great concept - if you happen to know when it is low relative to the future and when it is high relative to the future - well of course we know that, stocks feel bubbly so they must be high I'll sell high now and wait for them to be low again.


If you don't believe that valuations matter, it is a free country and you can believe whatever you want.

Of course valuations matter, I just happen to think that people acting individually (including professionals) are pretty bad at determining when valuations are high/low based on what the future values will be.

I am amazed at the length to which people will pursue semantic games around here.

This isn't a semantic game - I think it is fundamentally bad pedagogy in forums such as this to use trite, if catchy, phrases as opposed to actually explaining what you mean.

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nedsaid
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Re: "Don't time the market" vs. "Buy low, sell high"

Postby nedsaid » Sun Mar 19, 2017 11:51 am

Avapert, I think you are just being petty.

I am not a financial advisor, I am not in the business of selling financial products. I am simply a customer of financial institutions as most of the rest of the forum members are. There are people in the industry who post here but I am not one of them. So there are no conflicts of interest with me nor is there a hidden agenda. I have no idea what you are talking about con men and all of that.

I just hate all the doubling down. The spirit of your responses are not in keeping with mutual respect and goodwill. The purpose of the forum is to have a comfortable place where people can freely express their ideas. I guess the implication that people are not too intelligent or have ulterior motives when posting is just not in keeping with the purpose of the forum.
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Re: "Don't time the market" vs. "Buy low, sell high"

Postby pkcrafter » Sun Mar 19, 2017 11:53 am

Obviously, you don't read my posts. I have explained myself in great detail on this forum. Some posts are short and sweet and others are lengthy. Buy low, sell high is not a trite phrase. It is a fundamental precept of investing. If you don't believe that valuations matter, it is a free country and you can believe whatever you want. I am amazed at the length to which people will pursue semantic games around here.


Nedsaid, First, I'll state that you are a great contributor to the forum and I look forward to your posts. I don't want to make this a big deal, but I figured you were going to get some backlash on the timing comment you made back on pg 1.

You are right, buy low, sell high is not a trite phrase, and it's not just semantics either. For a Boglehead it really only applies to rebalancing because Bogleheads do not buy or sell based on valuations or any other market behavior. The only other time Bogleheads may buy/sell is if they are actually changing allocation based on new personal conditions. Sometimes they even sell low when tax loss harvesting. This is what Bogleheads recommendations are, although I know some don't follow them exclusively. Investors can make changes based on valuations if they want to, but they will get flack if they make it a general recommendation on the forum.

--------------------------------------------------------------
edited to add>
Vicp wrote:
These two proverbs are ubiquitous in the world of investing, but they seem mutually exclusive to me. How can you know whether you are "buying low" or "selling high" without timing the market?


In the Bogleheads' world, which is primarily buy/hold, buy low/sell high only applies to rebalancing your portfolio back to the chosen asset allocation (AA). That's it. If equity allocation rises 5% above target, you sell a bit (sell high) and buy what is lower than target AA. Conversely, if equity drops 5% below target you buy and rebalance (buy low). There is no need to know anything about the market, valuations, conditions, trends, etc. You only need to look at your own portfolio for guidance. There is no market timing procedure in the Boglehead philosophy.

1 Develop a workable plan
2 Invest early and often
3 Never bear too much or too little risk
4 Diversify
5 Never try to time the market
6 Use index funds when possible
7 Keep costs low
8 Minimize taxes
9 Invest with simplicity
10 Stay the course

vic, you took your money out of investments in order to change how and where you keep the money. That is considered a sideways move, because it's not new money. Therefore, the money should be put back into your target allocation ASAP. If you are not comfortable with the equity allocation, lower it, but don't waste your time trying to time.

Paul
Last edited by pkcrafter on Sun Mar 19, 2017 12:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.

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Re: "Don't time the market" vs. "Buy low, sell high"

Postby avalpert » Sun Mar 19, 2017 12:12 pm

nedsaid wrote:Avapert, I think you are just being petty.

I am not a financial advisor, I am not in the business of selling financial products. I am simply a customer of financial institutions as most of the rest of the forum members are. There are people in the industry who post here but I am not one of them. So there are no conflicts of interest with me nor is there a hidden agenda. I have no idea what you are talking about con men and all of that.

I just hate all the doubling down. The spirit of your responses are not in keeping with mutual respect and goodwill. The purpose of the forum is to have a comfortable place where people can freely express their ideas. I guess the implication that people are not too intelligent or have ulterior motives when posting is just not in keeping with the purpose of the forum.

I apologize for the tone of my responses, I did not intend for them to be taken that way. I did not mean to imply that you had a hidden agenda or ulterior motives - I was not referring to you when talking about con men but marketers in general who use these types of phrases to lure in there prey.

In the context of this particular phrase and this thread in general - this phrase is one that is very helpful to asset managers for selling their various timing schemes because they are designed to 'buy low, sell high' and what more could you want? By not continuously reminding people that 'buy low, sell high' on its own really is not actionable we empower those marketers out there.

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Re: "Don't time the market" vs. "Buy low, sell high"

Postby nedsaid » Sun Mar 19, 2017 12:13 pm

pkcrafter wrote:
Obviously, you don't read my posts. I have explained myself in great detail on this forum. Some posts are short and sweet and others are lengthy. Buy low, sell high is not a trite phrase. It is a fundamental precept of investing. If you don't believe that valuations matter, it is a free country and you can believe whatever you want. I am amazed at the length to which people will pursue semantic games around here.


Nedsaid, First, I'll state that you are a great contributor to the forum and I look forward to your posts. I don't want to make this a big deal, but I figured you were going to get some backlash on the timing comment you made back on pg 1.

You are right, buy low, sell high is not a trite phrase, and it's not just semantics either. For a Boglehead it really only applies to rebalancing because Bogleheads do not buy or sell based on valuations or any other market behavior. The only other time Bogleheads may buy/sell is if they are actually changing allocation based on new personal conditions. Sometimes they even sell low when tax loss harvesting. This is what Bogleheads recommendations are, although I know some don't follow them exclusively. Investors can make changes based on valuations if they want to, but they will get flack if they make it a general recommendation on the forum.


I don't post deliberately to rile people up but I do fire back when fired upon. It is okay to have spirited discussions but at some point people have to agree to disagree.

Yes, I have practiced market timing in its milder forms and I think most Bogleheads, if pressed would admit to that too. Whatever moves I made were relatively modest, with valuations in mind, and with a lot of thought beforehand. As I recall, I made such moves in early 2000, 2005, 2007. In early 2000, I sold about 15% of my stocks. In 2005 or so, I moved funds from money market funds into bond funds. In 2007-2008, I did some portfolio re-alignment to create a small-value tilt in my portfolio, to buy international mid/small-caps, and to reduce my allocation to individual stocks. After interest rates fell in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, I moved the remainder of my money market funds in retirement accounts to bonds. From July 2013 to present, I have been in a program of mild rebalancing of my portfolio from stocks to bonds. Hardly wild-eyed day trader stuff.

Note that in 2007 and 2008, I had no clue that the financial crisis was coming. The moves I made then were an attempt to further diversify across factors and not to avoid a crash. 2000 was mostly due to warnings from Bob Brinker and my uneasy feeling that something just wasn't right. 2005 and 2007 moves were made after I had thought about them for over two years. In July of 2013, I remembered that I missed a rebalancing opportunity in 2007-2008 and swore I wouldn't let that happen again. Plus I am getting older.

I think I have been pretty open about what I have been doing and what has worked for me and what has not. Sort of the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat. I have made my mistakes and taken my losses too.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Re: "Don't time the market" vs. "Buy low, sell high"

Postby bertilak » Sun Mar 19, 2017 12:15 pm

I always took "Buy low, sell high" as tongue-in-cheek. It should have "as if it's that easy" in small print. It is a milder form of Will Roger's advice:
    "Buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it."
Yes, rebalancing does "buy low, sell high" IF you are willing to define low and high as relative to your target allocation, not low or high with respect to some inherent value or with respect to what you paid for your current holdings.
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Re: "Don't time the market" vs. "Buy low, sell high"

Postby nedsaid » Sun Mar 19, 2017 12:25 pm

avalpert wrote:
nedsaid wrote:Avapert, I think you are just being petty.

I am not a financial advisor, I am not in the business of selling financial products. I am simply a customer of financial institutions as most of the rest of the forum members are. There are people in the industry who post here but I am not one of them. So there are no conflicts of interest with me nor is there a hidden agenda. I have no idea what you are talking about con men and all of that.

I just hate all the doubling down. The spirit of your responses are not in keeping with mutual respect and goodwill. The purpose of the forum is to have a comfortable place where people can freely express their ideas. I guess the implication that people are not too intelligent or have ulterior motives when posting is just not in keeping with the purpose of the forum.

I apologize for the tone of my responses, I did not intend for them to be taken that way. I did not mean to imply that you had a hidden agenda or ulterior motives - I was not referring to you when talking about con men but marketers in general who use these types of phrases to lure in there prey.

In the context of this particular phrase and this thread in general - this phrase is one that is very helpful to asset managers for selling their various timing schemes because they are designed to 'buy low, sell high' and what more could you want? By not continuously reminding people that 'buy low, sell high' on its own really is not actionable we empower those marketers out there.


Thank you.

You have made a good point that short pithy phrases can be misused. Warren Buffett does this too and I agree that you should not blindly follow these phrases but view them in the context of a broader discussion. Yes, things can be misused and I concede the point.

Wall Street is a transaction based business. If no one ever traded, a whole lot of people would be out of jobs. So yes, Wall Street will misuse language to encourage people to trade and to trade often. So it is a case of buyer beware, we should view what Wall Street people say with a bit of skepticism as they are not 100% objective and that there is a conflict of interest.

When I discuss buy low/sell high, it is in a different context than somebody looking to make a quick buck. I discuss it in the context of keeping an eye on valuations. If all I accomplished with my talk of valuation was to keep people from performance chasing, I would have accomplished a lot. I don't pretend to know the exact right time or the exact right price to buy an investment. Sometimes, I have held my nose and bought anyway. Conversely, when my allocation to stocks was getting too high, I sold even though I didn't really want to and even though I was not enthusiastic about buying bonds in their place.

Sometimes as an investor, you have to do things that don't feel good. Sometimes you have to buck the tide of popular opinion. In other words, being successful dictates that you have to do what others are unwilling to do.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Re: "Don't time the market" vs. "Buy low, sell high"

Postby anoop » Sun Mar 19, 2017 12:26 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:This exert from Random Walk is what would keep me from doing this:

"Because there is a long-term uptrend in the stock market, it can be very risky to be in cash. An investor who frequently carries a large cash position to avoid periods of market decline is very likely to be out of the market during some periods where it rallies smartly. Professor H. Negat Seybun of the University of Michigan found that 95 percent of the significant market gains over a thirty-year period came on 90 of the roughly 7,500 trading days. If you happened to miss those 90 days, just over 1 percent of the total, the generous long-run stock-market returns of the period would have been wiped out... Laszlo Birinyi... has calculated that a buy-and-hold investor would have seen one dollar invested in the DJIA in 1900 grow to $290 by the start of 2013. Had that investor missed the best 5 days each year, however, that dollar investment would have been worth less than a penny in 2013."


The Ivy Portfolio has been shown to do well for market timing. I'm sure it too can be fooled because on a certain sequence of moves, but so far it appears to have done well without reacting to any data other than movement of the index itself.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsh ... end-update

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Re: "Don't time the market" vs. "Buy low, sell high"

Postby nedsaid » Sun Mar 19, 2017 1:04 pm

What I have tried to do is to get people to be flexible in their thinking. I have watched lots of interviews with John Bogle and I have been amazed at some of the things Mr. Bogle has said. Indeed, if Mr. Bogle posted anonymously on the forum, his avatar would be accused of deviating from Boglehead principles!

Contrary to what some might believe, Mr. Bogle is not rigid in his thinking. Mr. "Stay The Course" wondered in the late 1990's why he should be in stocks at all. He discussed selling most of his stocks and taking his stock allocation down to 20% of his portfolio. He called bonds "the steal of the century." His bark was worse than his bite and in fact he sold stocks, but not as much as he had talked about in interviews. Even then, he did his selling over a two year period.

I have heard him say that most retirees invest too conservatively and that a 65% stock and 35% bond portfolio is good for most investors. He talks about considering Social Security as a bond when retirees construct their asset allocation. Pretty surprising coming from somebody who has talked about age in bonds. I am not sure that Mr. Bogle follows the age in bonds rule himself!

Using a pen name, he even wrote a paper extolling the superiority of active management. Pretty surprising.

Mr. Bogle has talked about making shifts of 15% to 20% of the portfolio balance if investors thought that stock market valuations were getting out of hand. I think this is what he did himself. See above.

Mr. Bogle owns stock in competitor T Rowe Price. I think he bought 100 shares to better monitor a competitor. He has invested in his son's quantitative funds. He has some legacy holdings in Vanguard active funds.

John Bogle has mostly followed his own advice, the great bulk of his money are in the low cost index funds that he tells the rest of us to buy. He really is not a market timer though has done it in the very mildest forms. He really is relatively conservative with his investing approach.

The thing is, that the man has opinions and is not afraid to express them. He says surprising things. He is not some wild-eyed day trader but over his career has done some surprising things. He mostly eats his own cooking, that is he follows his own advice. One thing I like about him is his ability to think outside of his own box.
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Re: "Don't time the market" vs. "Buy low, sell high"

Postby fortyofforty » Sun Mar 19, 2017 6:00 pm

Thank you all for reminding me why I stopped coming to this site. This relentless attacking of anyone not holding "orthodox" views, or daring to challenge the prevailing BH viewpoint, is antithetical to the nature of public discourse. nedsaid, you are a better person than I for putting up with it for so many years, and coming back for more. I gave up, and once again disappear from this site. Maybe I'll check back in from time to time, just to confirm my decision. And maybe not.
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." - George Orwell

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nedsaid
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Re: "Don't time the market" vs. "Buy low, sell high"

Postby nedsaid » Sun Mar 19, 2017 7:58 pm

I came to the Bogleheads.org site because I agreed with the philosophical underpinnings of Bogleism.

1 Develop a workable plan
2 Invest early and often
3 Never bear too much or too little risk
4 Diversify
5 Never try to time the market
6 Use index funds when possible
7 Keep costs low
8 Minimize taxes
9 Invest with simplicity
10 Stay the course

I don't disagree with any of these.

Where I have encountered disagreement is over my belief that valuation matters and over my
preference for dividends. I also encountered disagreement with those who insist upon rebalancing
their portfolios "every hour on the hour". My relaxed attitude towards rebalancing was met with a feeling I got that I was not practicing portfolio hygiene. I was slouching in my chair, not brushing and flossing with regularity, and not calling my mother on mother's day. I still maintain a portfolio of individual stocks and I get dire warnings as if I am smoking five packs of cigarettes a day. There has also been mild disagreements over placing of assets in taxable, tax free, and tax deferred accounts for maximum tax efficiency.

Another thing not allowed by some folks is any type of anecdotal evidence or stories. Dry recitations of algebraic formulas, statistics, and ratios are preferred. Investors who see investing as an engineering problem or a formula to be solved think that my behavioral approach is all wrong. It is difficult explaining to people that the numbers that come from the accountants are not precise.

The thing is, we all have different life experiences which have shaped our point of view. We all have deeply held believes which quite often come out of those experiences. Different people see the world differently hence the lively discussions here.

I just share my experiences, observations, and opinions in the naïve hope that it will spur thought and discussion. Sooner or later, I will be right about something!

It isn't my intent to be one of the two old guys sitting in balcony seats heckling the Muppet Show. Just good discussion and good, clean fun.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Re: "Don't time the market" vs. "Buy low, sell high"

Postby InvestorNewb » Sun Mar 19, 2017 8:12 pm

fortyofforty wrote:Thank you all for reminding me why I stopped coming to this site. This relentless attacking of anyone not holding "orthodox" views, or daring to challenge the prevailing BH viewpoint, is antithetical to the nature of public discourse. nedsaid, you are a better person than I for putting up with it for so many years, and coming back for more. I gave up, and once again disappear from this site. Maybe I'll check back in from time to time, just to confirm my decision. And maybe not.

Not everyone on here is like that. I enjoy reading about different ways to invest and welcome your views.
My Portfolio: VTI [US], VXUS [Int'l], VNQ [REIT], VCN [Canada] (largest to smallest)

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Re: "Don't time the market" vs. "Buy low, sell high"

Postby avalpert » Sun Mar 19, 2017 8:29 pm

fortyofforty wrote:Thank you all for reminding me why I stopped coming to this site. This relentless attacking of anyone not holding "orthodox" views, or daring to challenge the prevailing BH viewpoint, is antithetical to the nature of public discourse. nedsaid, you are a better person than I for putting up with it for so many years, and coming back for more. I gave up, and once again disappear from this site. Maybe I'll check back in from time to time, just to confirm my decision. And maybe not.

I'm curious - what do you think is the unorthodox view here being attacked and what is the prevailing BH viewpoint be challenged/defended?

I'm sure you can find threads that fit your model, I just don't see how this is one as it doesn't seem to be particularly about boglehead viewpoints at all.

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Re: "Don't time the market" vs. "Buy low, sell high"

Postby RetiredinKaty » Sun Mar 19, 2017 8:35 pm

My early interest in the Boglehead Forum was the reading list. Over the last 10 years I believe that I have read at least one book by nearly every author on that list. So when I related rebalancing with “buy low / sell high” earlier in this discussion I didn’t think I was committing an Original Thought. I was almost sure the idea welled up from memory. Continued discussions on this thread made me take a quick look on my bookshelf.

“Beyond risk control and extra return, there is yet a third benefit to rebalancing, and that is psychological conditioning. In order to make a profit on any investment, you must buy low and sell high. Both of these, particularly the former, are extraordinarily difficult to do…”

- William J. Bernstein, The Four Pillars of Investing, page 287.

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patrick013
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Re: "Don't time the market" vs. "Buy low, sell high"

Postby patrick013 » Sun Mar 19, 2017 8:36 pm

2 questions :

Did you buy at a good time ?

Where your major purchases made in index funds during
a 10% market correction ? Then you have what's called
a good entry point. Any complaints ? Still listening.


Did you sell at a good time ?

Rebalance to bonds when the market portfolio was entertaining
PE's in excess of 25 ? Stay the course when the unexpected
market crash actually happened ? Any complaints ? Still
listening.

Some people sell all their stocks when the market portfolio
trades over 25 PE. Still debating why they do that. :)

Stay the course then.
age in bonds, buy-and-hold, 10 year business cycle

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David Jay
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Re: "Don't time the market" vs. "Buy low, sell high"

Postby David Jay » Sun Mar 19, 2017 10:31 pm

anoop wrote:
MotoTrojan wrote:This exert from Random Walk is what would keep me from doing this:

"Because there is a long-term uptrend in the stock market, it can be very risky to be in cash. An investor who frequently carries a large cash position to avoid periods of market decline is very likely to be out of the market during some periods where it rallies smartly. Professor H. Negat Seybun of the University of Michigan found that 95 percent of the significant market gains over a thirty-year period came on 90 of the roughly 7,500 trading days. If you happened to miss those 90 days, just over 1 percent of the total, the generous long-run stock-market returns of the period would have been wiped out... Laszlo Birinyi... has calculated that a buy-and-hold investor would have seen one dollar invested in the DJIA in 1900 grow to $290 by the start of 2013. Had that investor missed the best 5 days each year, however, that dollar investment would have been worth less than a penny in 2013."


The Ivy Portfolio has been shown to do well for market timing. I'm sure it too can be fooled because on a certain sequence of moves, but so far it appears to have done well without reacting to any data other than movement of the index itself.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsh ... end-update


Seriously, do you think that looks good? Every SP500 sell indicator since 2000 has come AFTER a market drop (i.e. Sell low) and the system fails to show a "buy" until well after the start of the upturn, losing much of the upside (i.e. Buy high).
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" Niels Bohr

rbaldini
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Re: "Don't time the market" vs. "Buy low, sell high"

Postby rbaldini » Sun Mar 19, 2017 11:29 pm

"Don't time the market" follows from the belief that there's essentially no signal we can use to predict the market's future movement. It's all noise - but with an upward trend. If this is true, it follows that the best thing you can do is buy and hold, in an amount consistent with your ability to take risk. There's no signal, so nothing about the market's short-term behavior should affect your investing strategy.

"Buy low, sell high" is certainly what you *want* to do. And historically speaking, it appears to be virtually guaranteed if you invest in the market long enough. But if you're a strict random-walker, it's not actionable: there's no way of knowing what the future holds, so you don't know if you're currently at a high or a low. If, on the other hand, you believe that valuations or momentum or other metrics give some clue as to the market's future behavior, then you *do* have information (or, at least, you think you do), and you can try to guide your behavior so as to buy low and sell high.

That's pretty much it.

anoop
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Re: "Don't time the market" vs. "Buy low, sell high"

Postby anoop » Sun Mar 19, 2017 11:52 pm

David Jay wrote:
anoop wrote:
MotoTrojan wrote:This exert from Random Walk is what would keep me from doing this:

"Because there is a long-term uptrend in the stock market, it can be very risky to be in cash. An investor who frequently carries a large cash position to avoid periods of market decline is very likely to be out of the market during some periods where it rallies smartly. Professor H. Negat Seybun of the University of Michigan found that 95 percent of the significant market gains over a thirty-year period came on 90 of the roughly 7,500 trading days. If you happened to miss those 90 days, just over 1 percent of the total, the generous long-run stock-market returns of the period would have been wiped out... Laszlo Birinyi... has calculated that a buy-and-hold investor would have seen one dollar invested in the DJIA in 1900 grow to $290 by the start of 2013. Had that investor missed the best 5 days each year, however, that dollar investment would have been worth less than a penny in 2013."


The Ivy Portfolio has been shown to do well for market timing. I'm sure it too can be fooled because on a certain sequence of moves, but so far it appears to have done well without reacting to any data other than movement of the index itself.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsh ... end-update


Seriously, do you think that looks good? Every SP500 sell indicator since 2000 has come AFTER a market drop (i.e. Sell low) and the system fails to show a "buy" until well after the start of the upturn, losing much of the upside (i.e. Buy high).


Did you look at the charts showing what it did during the great depression and great recession?


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