"High conviction investing"

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ERMD
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"High conviction investing"

Post by ERMD » Tue Feb 21, 2017 3:25 pm

Just saw an Invesco commercial which was essentially a subtle attack against passive indexing. They are advocating "high conviction investing" and ask (paraphrasing): "why be happy with average returns?"

Am I correct in assuming that "high conviction investing" is a thinly veiled euphamism for active management? :happy
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bottlecap
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Re: "High conviction investing"

Post by bottlecap » Tue Feb 21, 2017 3:29 pm

Sounds like it to me!

Interesting.

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Re: "High conviction investing"

Post by jebmke » Tue Feb 21, 2017 3:30 pm

ERMD wrote:Am I correct in assuming that "high conviction investing" is a thinly veiled euphamism for active management?
or Ponzi schemes :P
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Phineas J. Whoopee
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Re: "High conviction investing"

Post by Phineas J. Whoopee » Tue Feb 21, 2017 3:32 pm

High conviction in the sense of Madoff's 150 year sentence?
PJW
Last edited by Phineas J. Whoopee on Tue Feb 21, 2017 3:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: "High conviction investing"

Post by lack_ey » Tue Feb 21, 2017 3:34 pm

In an investing context it's usually meant to mean conviction in certain active views. Parts of the market, strategies, and so on.

For Invesco specifically it's unambiguous because they have a portal on their site about that:
https://www.invesco.com/portal/site/hc

Keep in mind it's not all traditional active as Invesco is the manager behind the Powershares ETF brand, including such products as PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC, the largest commodity exchange-traded whatever), PowerShares QQQ Trust (the NASDAQ-100 fund), and smart beta takes like Powershares S&P 500 Low Volatility Portfolio (SPLV) and PowerShares FTSE RAFI US 1000 Portfolio (PRF). Unlike say Blackrock, Vanguard, SSgA, etc. they don't really have broad-market index funds.

But yeah, it's certainly a way to sell something for higher prices than rock-bottom-core-index fees.

More broadly I would say standard Boglehead 3-fund portfolio kind of allocation can be said to be relatively high conviction on broad stock and bond performance (market beta, term risk, etc.), relatively low conviction or outright skepticism on relative stockpicking, discretionary active, maybe other factors, and so on.

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ERMD
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Re: "High conviction investing"

Post by ERMD » Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:09 pm

lack_ey wrote: More broadly I would say standard Boglehead 3-fund portfolio kind of allocation can be said to be relatively high conviction on broad stock and bond performance (market beta, term risk, etc.), relatively low conviction or outright skepticism on relative stockpicking, discretionary active, maybe other factors, and so on.
that's a good point, and i certainly have high convictions about the basic indexing strategy.

it seems to me (and maybe i'm reading too much into this) that they're attaching some ineffectual/effeminate quality to passive indexers. like: "hey! don't be a sissy! roll the dice!"
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Re: "High conviction investing"

Post by Meg77 » Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:11 pm

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:High conviction in the sense of Madoff's 150 year sentence?
PJW
This made me LOL. :D
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Re: "High conviction investing"

Post by blueblock » Tue Feb 21, 2017 6:00 pm


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Re: "High conviction investing"

Post by baw703916 » Tue Feb 21, 2017 6:09 pm

If you're trading on insider information, it could be "high conviction" in a couple different senses of the term. :twisted:
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Re: "High conviction investing"

Post by Toons » Tue Feb 21, 2017 6:12 pm

"why be happy with average returns?"

Many people ,including me ,have met their goals with "average" returns.
"Beating The Market" never did interest me
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Re: "High conviction investing"

Post by cinghiale » Tue Feb 21, 2017 6:32 pm

Meg77 wrote,
Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
High conviction in the sense of Madoff's 150 year sentence?
PJW
This made me LOL. :D
Me, too. Great reply!
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Re: "High conviction investing"

Post by nisiprius » Tue Feb 21, 2017 6:35 pm

I believe "high conviction" means "a willingness to place large concentrated bets in a few stocks you really believe in, rather than playing it safe by spreading it around into lots of stocks that seem safe and sorta OK." In a mutual fund company--to the extent that it is anything more than meaningless marketing rhetoric--it would be the opposite of a closet index fund.

One would be tempted to say "high conviction" means "a manager who's willing to put his money where his mouth is," except, of course, that it actually means a manager who is willing to put other peoples' money where his mouth is.

An example :twisted: of a "high conviction" fund manager would be Robert Goldfarb of the Sequoia Fund, whose high conviction in Valeant Pharmaceuticals led the fund to invest 20% of its portfolio in the stock of that single company.
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Re: "High conviction investing"

Post by pkcrafter » Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:58 pm

I think Nisiprius has it right, but here's an explanation. I think it means managers with high conviction actually have faith in what they are buying and they hold on. The other 80% don't do anything except act like an index fund. Sounds like the high active share idea that didn't fly.
This data suggests a significant lack of conviction among major market participants. In fact, a recent analysis of asset managers found that nearly 80.0% of assets under management in mutual funds are considered to be "low-conviction" strategies, meaning that most actively managed strategies do not differ significantly from a passively managed index.


This isn't a knock on indexing. it's a knock on fund managers. But wait, now you can buy funds with managers who have high conviction. Wow.

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Re: "High conviction investing"

Post by Snowjob » Tue Feb 21, 2017 8:09 pm

nisiprius wrote:I believe "high conviction" means "a willingness to place large concentrated bets in a few stocks you really believe in, rather than playing it safe by spreading it around into lots of stocks that seem safe and sorta OK." In a mutual fund company--to the extent that it is anything more than meaningless marketing rhetoric--it would be the opposite of a closet index fund.

One would be tempted to say "high conviction" means "a manager who's willing to put his money where his mouth is," except, of course, that it actually means a manager who is willing to put other peoples' money where his mouth is.

An example :twisted: of a "high conviction" fund manager would be Robert Goldfarb of the Sequoia Fund, whose high conviction in Valeant Pharmaceuticals led the fund to invest 20% of its portfolio in the stock of that single company.
Correct -- effectively they are pitching concentration. If they are right, they look like heroes, gather tons of AUM and make a lot of money. If they are wrong, well the investors might lose their shirts and they close up shop. The risk is asymmetric for them and at best symmetric for the investor (depending on how much faith you have in the manager). Of course, not all concentrated funds are subject to those extreme wild swings -- I assume some cap individual names in the 5-7% range.

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Re: "High conviction investing"

Post by lack_ey » Tue Feb 21, 2017 8:17 pm

FWIW if you search "high conviction active" this will turn up a lot.

This perhaps ties in with since-debunked ideas about active share. The funds with higher active share are higher conviction, probably.

It also ties in with the idea of manager investment in her/her own fund. Presumably that indicates higher conviction in one's approach and kind of refutes nisipris's notion of a high conviction manager placing bets with others' money. That's one of the criteria Morningstar likes. I don't know how significant it is, though.

As noted earlier, it's not necessarily concentrated bets in individual securities. Could be sectors, factors, something else.

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Re: "High conviction investing"

Post by LeeMKE » Wed Feb 22, 2017 2:36 am

"Why invest in average?"

Because the difference in cost puts "just average" waaaay ahead of the returns for investors who paid higher fees for management, even when their managers do better than the market average.

I was waiting for the guy to take off his shirt in that commercial. :twisted:
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Re: "High conviction investing"

Post by White Coat Investor » Wed Feb 22, 2017 2:53 am

If you're going to bet on active management, concentration seems to be key. No sense in paying active management fees to get a closet index fund. The idea is to concentrate the portfolio in your best ideas- i.e. the ones you have a high conviction about.
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Re: "High conviction investing"

Post by nisiprius » Wed Feb 22, 2017 8:05 am

Snowjob wrote:...Of course, not all concentrated funds are subject to those extreme wild swings -- I assume some cap individual names in the 5-7% range...
Mutual funds have to follow some rules to be classified "diversified." Most funds do. If they don't, they have to make an explicit statement that the fund is "not classified as diversified." One of the rules limits them to holding no more than 5% of the fund in any single stock.
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Re: "High conviction investing"

Post by nisiprius » Wed Feb 22, 2017 8:11 am

White Coat Investor wrote:If you're going to bet on active management, concentration seems to be key. No sense in paying active management fees to get a closet index fund. The idea is to concentrate the portfolio in your best ideas- i.e. the ones you have a high conviction about.
Along the same lines, it doesn't make sense to buy a high-active-share mutual fund unless you yourself are willing to concentrate your own holdings into that single fund.

That's why, outside of Boglehead circles, there are warnings about "fund overlap." It's especially bizarre that based on what people post, many "advisors" have put them into portfolios of twenty and thirty seemingly random actively managed mutual funds.

When you do that, in a sense you are diversifying but what you are really is building your own closet index fund, with little chance of being much better or much worse than an index fund--but paying (often) loads and high expenses to do it. Instead of getting Robert Goldfarb's "best ideas" you are getting a mishmash of two dozen fund managers' best ideas, and they don't agree.
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Re: "High conviction investing"

Post by nisiprius » Wed Feb 22, 2017 9:44 am

I am not trying to make any scientific evaluation or produce any crushing proof, just trying a little personal experiment. I'm going to test this hypothesis (straw man if you like): "High conviction" investing is so much better than indexing, that it's a slam dunk that any fool (me) who chooses a few half-decent "high conviction" mutual funds is almost certain to do better than with indexing. So, off to find some half-decent funds.

Doing some random Googling to find "high-conviction" funds... unfortunately two of the three mentioned in Christine Benz' article, A Short List of Funds that Invest with Conviction are global funds, so it's not clear what to compare them to... and trying to pick only funds I've never heard of, i.e. not ones that I know have encountered problems recently...

RiverPark/Wedgewood Institutional (RWGIX), mentioned by Christine Benz in her article.

THE GABELLI FOCUS FIVE FUND A High Conviction, Best Ideas Portfolio, GWSAX

For Invesco, let's try to identify what might be their "flagship" US Stock Fund. I'll look at the five they call out themselves as "high-conviction:"
Image
I'll throw out the bond fund, the market neutral fund, and the long-short fund, and see how big and how old the three others are. I'm already leaning toward LCEAX because anything that seems to be naming an S&P index sounds index-y. Oh. In fact, SPLV and SPHQ literally track indexes. High-conviction? Hoo hah. OK, LCEAX it is, 2001, $20 billion AUM.

Alliance-Bernstein comes up in a Google search for high-conviction mutual funds, and a page on "High Conviction Equities" mentions a number of US stock funds. This article sounds like high-conviction US stocks to me: "FRANK CARUSO, CFA | CIO—Growth Equities, FOCUSING ON EXCEPTIONAL COMPANIES," so, AB American Growth Portfolio it is. No, it isn't. I can't find a ticker symbol and Morningstar isn't showing it as available in the US. Never mind.

Howzabout Parnassus Fund? What a lovely classical-sounding name. Is it one that I vaguely remember being a turkey? No, Morningstar is showing four stars, so it's not unconscious bias. "invests across the capitalization spectrum with high conviction in approximately 40 holdings."

So I have a list of four: RWGIX, GWSAX, LCEAX, PARNX.

I'm going to do two things. First, chart them along Total Stock over whatever is the long period of time they all have existed. Second, use PortfolioVisualizer to compare a portfolio of 25% of each to Total Stock. I'm going to state what I expect to find before I go look. Since these are high-conviction funds, I do expect them to look quite different from each other and Total Stock, but I expect them all to show a crash in 2008-2009. I expect to get an unclear decision, some above and some below Total Stock. And when I average the four in Total Stock, I expect them the results of that to be respectably close to Total Stock. Here goes.

I don't get to see 2008-2009, they don't go that far back. It's maybe a little unrepresentative looking only at result since 9/30/2010, but it wasn't my choice... and on the whole, a period when the stock market is rising should be favorable to mutual funds that take risks. The light yellow line is Total Stock.

Source
Image
It's pretty obvious: for these four funds, over this specific time period--not very long but not negligible, seven years--three out of four "high-conviction" funds underperformed the index; and the amount of outperformance in the winner was small, while the outperformance of the losers was larger. To my eyeball, the volatility of the high-conviction funds was certainly not lower, maybe about the same, but I think a bit higher than Total Stock.

Now we will do the Bad Thing of practicing naïve diversification, as if we couldn't pick a mutual fund manager so invested in all four. Or as if some sleazy probably-not-a-fiduciary advisor kept calling us to suggest his research department's "best ideas" to add to our portfolio.

Source
Image

The portfolio of four "high conviction" funds, once combined, as expected is really very close to the index fund up to mid-2015. At some expense, I've built my own closet index fund. When it finally diverges from the index fund, it's in a bad way, and all of the numeric measures are "better" for the index fund: higher return, quite a lot higher; (slightly) lower volatility; better best year; better worst year, in fact never lost money; quite a bit higher Sharpe ratio.

Conclusion: If I had picked one single "high-conviction" fund, I'd have had quite a bit of manager risk, with a three-to-one chance of underperforming the index fund. If I had indecisively picked four high-conviction funds, then I'd have been worse off in every way than with the index fund.

Different funds and different time periods would doubtless show different results, but all I can say is I did my best to play fair with myself.
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Re: "High conviction investing"

Post by nisiprius » Wed Feb 22, 2017 10:01 am

With regard to Invesco, one thing that came out of that last exercise. I've convinced myself that, as used by Invesco, "high-conviction" is a completely empty marketing term. They actually call out, by name, two of their

:?: :?: :?: :!: :!: :!: index ETFs :!: :!: :!: :?: :?: :?:

as "high-conviction!" They are... what is the language I am searching for here... it's on the tip of my tongue...

Full of it.

SPHQ tracks an index of 100 stocks. S&P says: "The S&P 500® Quality Index is designed to track high quality stocks in the S&P 500 by quality score, which is calculated based on return on equity, accruals ratio and financial leverage ratio."

SPLV tracks an index of 100 stocks. S&P says: "The S&P 500® Low Volatility Index measures performance of the 100 least volatile stocks in the S&P 500.

"High conviction" my foot. Yes, I'm getting a little worked up here. Obviously nobody at S&P holds any "convictions" about any of these stocks. As for Invesco itself, what are their institutional "convictions" here? Are they "convinced" that their customers should concentrate into quality, or are they "convinced" that they should concentrate into low volatility? Whomever holds these "convictions" can't make up their mind!

(They call them "smart beta," too, just so as not to miss any buzzwords!)

Image
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Re: "High conviction investing"

Post by nedsaid » Wed Feb 22, 2017 10:14 am

ERMD wrote:Just saw an Invesco commercial which was essentially a subtle attack against passive indexing. They are advocating "high conviction investing" and ask (paraphrasing): "why be happy with average returns?"

Am I correct in assuming that "high conviction investing" is a thinly veiled euphamism for active management? :happy
I do believe in having convictions and investing accordingly but as in all things good, one can overdo it. Even an investor in stock index funds has a strong conviction that stocks will rise as the economy grows. However that strong conviction is balanced with prudence which is why that same investor also owns the bond index or other low cost bond funds. What I will say is that one needs strong convictions and strong beliefs or one would never invest.

When the large local regional bank for which I worked was purchased in 1997, I had a strong conviction that the large local insurance company would eventually be purchased. When that insurance company de-mutualized, I instructed my broker to buy me 100 shares. It took 16 years but the company was bought out and I made probably nine times my original investment.

Convictions can be wrong. I was a big believer in telecomm and had a big investment in Lucent Technologies, which had been a great stock. What I didn't realize is that a lot of the demand for Lucent's products was simply going away and that there was a permanent change in the industry. I learned a painful lesson which still smarts to this day.

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Re: "High conviction investing"

Post by TinkerPDX » Wed Feb 22, 2017 10:26 am

ERMD wrote:
lack_ey wrote: More broadly I would say standard Boglehead 3-fund portfolio kind of allocation can be said to be relatively high conviction on broad stock and bond performance (market beta, term risk, etc.), relatively low conviction or outright skepticism on relative stockpicking, discretionary active, maybe other factors, and so on.
that's a good point, and i certainly have high convictions about the basic indexing strategy.

it seems to me (and maybe i'm reading too much into this) that they're attaching some ineffectual/effeminate quality to passive indexers. like: "hey! don't be a sissy! roll the dice!"
A nice complement to the series of ads with humanoid "robot" advisors. Don't remember who it was from, just that they were terrible.

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Re: "High conviction investing"

Post by lack_ey » Wed Feb 22, 2017 11:42 am

nisiprius wrote:With regard to Invesco, one thing that came out of that last exercise. I've convinced myself that, as used by Invesco, "high-conviction" is a completely empty marketing term. They actually call out, by name, two of their

:?: :?: :?: :!: :!: :!: index ETFs :!: :!: :!: :?: :?: :?:

as "high-conviction!" They are... what is the language I am searching for here... it's on the tip of my tongue...

Full of it.

SPHQ tracks an index of 100 stocks. S&P says: "The S&P 500® Quality Index is designed to track high quality stocks in the S&P 500 by quality score, which is calculated based on return on equity, accruals ratio and financial leverage ratio."

SPLV tracks an index of 100 stocks. S&P says: "The S&P 500® Low Volatility Index measures performance of the 100 least volatile stocks in the S&P 500.

"High conviction" my foot. Yes, I'm getting a little worked up here. Obviously nobody at S&P holds any "convictions" about any of these stocks. As for Invesco itself, what are their institutional "convictions" here? Are they "convinced" that their customers should concentrate into quality, or are they "convinced" that they should concentrate into low volatility? Whomever holds these "convictions" can't make up their mind!

(They call them "smart beta," too, just so as not to miss any buzzwords!)
https://s11.postimg.org/t769zouc3/Captu ... _04_AM.png
Just saying, but I did point this out in my first reply in the thread, that Invesco is not talking about "traditional active" exclusively and that they include "smart beta takes like Powershares S&P 500 Low Volatility Portfolio (SPLV)" via the Powershares brand.

Like I said, it could be a strategy, a tilt, whatever. Not necessarily single-stock concentration or sector bets.

If you don't want the broad-market index and are willing to pay extra for some different strategy you believe in, you might be able to get it implemented via a tilted/smart beta index fund, not just a traditional or even a quant active manager. That's not really anything new. You can make fun of the marketing spin and move on. If you have high conviction in low vol stocks outperforming then SPLV is an option for you.

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Re: "High conviction investing"

Post by pkcrafter » Wed Feb 22, 2017 11:57 am

Thanks Nisiprius, good bit of detective work. I noticed all four of the funds have an ER above 0.8% with Gabelli topping out at 1.42%.

The Invesco fund has actually done quite well and has slightly outperformed the S&P500 over a 10 year period, but not over the last 3 years as you show. The Invesco fund has a market cap of 37B and lower volatility than the index. It holds 72 stocks with an 11% turnover.

The next best fund is Parnassus with 36 stocks, but market cap of only 27B and substantially higher SD. Turnover is 46%.

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Re: "High conviction investing"

Post by toto238 » Wed Feb 22, 2017 12:01 pm

"Why invest in average?"

Because "average" means beating 90+% of market participants. And I'm highly skeptical that this fund family will recommend anything to me but high cost funds that enrich them at my expense. That isn't a great formula for being in that top 10% that outperforms.




Their slogan should be: "Why invest in average, when we can offer you below average?"

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Re: "High conviction investing"

Post by goodenyou » Wed Feb 22, 2017 12:21 pm

It is Orwellian doublespeak.
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" | Do you know how to make a rain dance work? Dance until it rains.

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