Foreign REIT vs. USA REIT?

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MikeT
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Foreign REIT vs. USA REIT?

Post by MikeT »

Thanks to the folks here, from my previous question, I now understand the PE ratio issue. Thank you!

Now to the more general question of foreign REIT vs. USA Reit in a retirement account:

VGRLX Vanguard Global ex-U.S. Real Estate Index Fund Admiral Shares, PE Ratio = 11.8 (earned 0% since 2011)
vs.
VGSLX Vanguard REIT Index Fund Admiral Shares, PE Ratio = 29.2 (earned 44% since 2011)

Since the international REIT's earning was flat since 2011, if I buy it, am I essentially trying to forecast the future, betting it will gain in the future despite it not in the past 6 years?

If owning foreign REIT and usa REIT is a good thing, should the relative allocation be 50%/50% or 1/3rd foreign and 2/3rds USA?

Here's a screen shot of a stock chart for the two REITs:
https://monosnap.com/file/ddy9QOyhStbzu ... 27zmMLMdyY

Thanks for any thoughts on this,

-Mike
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Re: Foreign REIT vs. USA REIT?

Post by wolf359 »

OK, I'm missing something here.

You're holding REITs in a tax sheltered account because the payouts are taxed as ordinary income, and it generates a lot of dividends. This makes sense.

Foreign taxes are paid on foreign REITs, which you can claim back (foreign tax credit) when you file taxes. This is lost in a tax sheltered account -- you still pay the taxes, but you can't write them off for a retirement account. Right off the bat, this puts foreign REITs at a disadvantage vs. US REITs for US citizens.

The foreign REITs are subject to currency risk, which might have something to do with the poor returns. (The dollar has been strong and getting stronger over the past few years.) As the dollar eventually weakens, presumably the value of the REITs will go up just based on currency values. I'm not sure this will happen, because interest rates are trending up in the US, which tends to strengthen the dollar.

I do have REITs in my asset allocation. I just never understood the case for foreign REITs, so I don't have those.

For what it's worth, I don't understand the argument for foreign bonds, either.
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Re: Foreign REIT vs. USA REIT?

Post by MikeT »

Wow @wolf359: The tax issue you mention sounds HUGE with foreign REITS.

I never heard about that before.

And, the last thing I want to do is complicate taxes (already complicated enough ) :-)

Thanks!

Mike
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Re: Foreign REIT vs. USA REIT?

Post by iceport »

MikeT wrote:Thanks to the folks here, from my previous question, I now understand the PE ratio issue. Thank you!

Now to the more general question of foreign REIT vs. USA Reit in a retirement account:

VGRLX Vanguard Global ex-U.S. Real Estate Index Fund Admiral Shares, PE Ratio = 11.8 (earned 0% since 2011)
vs.
VGSLX Vanguard REIT Index Fund Admiral Shares, PE Ratio = 29.2 (earned 44% since 2011)

Since the international REIT's earning was flat since 2011, if I buy it, am I essentially trying to forecast the future, betting it will gain in the future despite it not in the past 6 years?

If owning foreign REIT and usa REIT is a good thing, should the relative allocation be 50%/50% or 1/3rd foreign and 2/3rds USA?

Here's a screen shot of a stock chart for the two REITs:
https://monosnap.com/file/ddy9QOyhStbzu ... 27zmMLMdyY

Thanks for any thoughts on this,

-Mike
Here are a few random thoughts.

First, it is often noted here that the PE ratio is not the appropriate valuation metric for REITs. Larry Swedroe, for example, uses price/cash flow.

Second, as Larry notes in the linked post, valuations are a clue to long term returns going forward. Six years is not the long term. According to M*, VNQ has a price/cash flow of 14.11, compared to 9.29 for VNQI. So theoretically, there's a good possibility that VNQI will outperform VNQ over the long term. With that said, I don't really advocate allocating assets by trying to predict relative returns. It's best to broadly diversify and stick with an asset allocation "permanently."

Third, for me the choice to include international real estate was more one of diversification than expected returns. M* says that VNQ holds stock from a mere 156 companies in a single country. VNQI holds stock from 628 companies throughout much of the rest of world. For what is now a trivial cost differential (VNQ ER=0.12%; VNQI ER=0.18%), we can greatly enhance the diversification of a dedicated REIT allocation.

As far as the split, I chose 50/50, due mostly to the small percentages involved: 5% to US REITS and 5% international real estate.
"Discipline matters more than allocation.” |—| "In finance, if you’re certain of anything, you’re out of your mind." ─William Bernstein
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Re: Foreign REIT vs. USA REIT?

Post by MikeT »

Thanks @Iceport. How would you respond to the tax issue below from @Wolf359: ?
wolf359 wrote:
You're holding REITs in a tax sheltered account because the payouts are taxed as ordinary income, and it generates a lot of dividends. This makes sense.

Foreign taxes are paid on foreign REITs, which you can claim back (foreign tax credit) when you file taxes. This is lost in a tax sheltered account -- you still pay the taxes, but you can't write them off for a retirement account. Right off the bat, this puts foreign REITs at a disadvantage vs. US REITs for US citizens.

The foreign REITs are subject to currency risk,
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Re: Foreign REIT vs. USA REIT?

Post by iceport »

MikeT wrote:Thanks @Iceport. How would you respond to the tax issue below from @Wolf359: ?
wolf359 wrote:
You're holding REITs in a tax sheltered account because the payouts are taxed as ordinary income, and it generates a lot of dividends. This makes sense.

Foreign taxes are paid on foreign REITs, which you can claim back (foreign tax credit) when you file taxes. This is lost in a tax sheltered account -- you still pay the taxes, but you can't write them off for a retirement account. Right off the bat, this puts foreign REITs at a disadvantage vs. US REITs for US citizens.

The foreign REITs are subject to currency risk,
Vanguard says it paid 4.936% foreign tax on the dividend last year. M* reports a yield of 5.03%. So that would produce a loss of foreign tax credit of about 0.24% if held in a tax-advantaged account. If you add the 6 basis points in added expense ratio, the total added cost in taxes and fees for VNQI is 0.30% over VNQ.
"Discipline matters more than allocation.” |—| "In finance, if you’re certain of anything, you’re out of your mind." ─William Bernstein
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Re: Foreign REIT vs. USA REIT?

Post by MikeT »

wolf359 wrote: For what it's worth, I don't understand the argument for foreign bonds, either.
@Wolf359:
Vanguard advisors suggested me in an 80/20 allocation. Of my 20% bonds, 30% are international bonds.

Do you think they suggested that for diversification purposes, placing less of an emphasis on tax issues?

Do you think it makes sense to have the USA bonds in my retirement account and the international bonds in my taxable account so I can write-off foreign taxes paid come tax time?

Thanks,
Mike
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Re: Foreign REIT vs. USA REIT?

Post by abuss368 »

We invest in both Vanguard REIT Index funds: The U.S. and International funds. The U.S. fund has 150 +- companies and the International has hundreds providing a lot of diversification. International provides higher cash flows from dividends. REITs (both U.S. and International) are increasingly becoming global real estate entities.

We allocate 60% of our Real Estate portion to U.S. and 40% to International and this has worked well. I have found these two funds complement and worked very well with Total Stock Market and Total International Stock Market.
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Re: Foreign REIT vs. USA REIT?

Post by abuss368 »

Using these two funds will help fund retirement one day by providing cash flows from dividends.
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Re: Foreign REIT vs. USA REIT?

Post by wolf359 »

MikeT wrote:
wolf359 wrote: For what it's worth, I don't understand the argument for foreign bonds, either.
@Wolf359:
Vanguard advisors suggested me in an 80/20 allocation. Of my 20% bonds, 30% are international bonds.

Do you think they suggested that for diversification purposes, placing less of an emphasis on tax issues?

Do you think it makes sense to have the USA bonds in my retirement account and the international bonds in my taxable account so I can write-off foreign taxes paid come tax time?

Thanks,
Mike
Yes, Vanguard advisors also suggested to me 20% to 50% of the bonds in a low-cost, currency-hedged, international bond fund. The reason stated is to capture the diversification benefits.

What exactly are the diversification benefits of foreign bonds? How do you quantify it?

Is the issue diversification for the sake of uncorrelated assets? That interest rates could be dropping elsewhere in the world while they are rising in the US? Well, interest rates are already near zero or even negative outside the US. It's possible but unlikely they will drop further. Looking at the holdings of Total International Bond, it's surprising how low some of the rates are. But I'm also not investing in bonds primarily for returns. I am trying to maximize returns on the equity side of the portfolio. That leaves safety.

But the safety argument falls apart as well. For example, Total Bond Market is 70% US Government securities. If the US Government defaults, what is the likelihood that European (the bulk of which is Great Britain, Germany, France, and Italy) or Pacific (essentially Japan, South Korea, and Australia) government bonds would be unaffected and not also have potential defaults? The US is half of the world's economy. The US government has the ability to print US dollars, which is currently a reserve currency. Something major enough to rock the US government such that it defaults would also impact most other world governments, especially ones who are NOT reserve currencies.

For argument's sake, let's say that there IS a diversification benefit. 30% of 20% of your portfolio is effectively 6% of your overall portfolio. How much of a difference to your overall portfolio would that diversification benefit be?

My advisor can't explain further than: "for the diversification benefit, but it isn't very significant." I was directed to a white paper, but it also cites a diversification benefit without elaborating. I have searched for the topic in Bogleheads, and although it has been discussed, I've never heard it explained well enough to convince me.

So, I don't understand why I should hold international bonds at all. They're not recommending that I hold enough to make a difference, and I'm not sure what the benefit is in the first place. Therefore, I hold Total US Bond Market and Intermediate-term Municipals (in taxable), but I have no international bonds.
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Re: Foreign REIT vs. USA REIT?

Post by MikeT »

You make a very strong argument @wolf357

I would like to simplify my bond allocation since I'm using:
2 US stock (401k),
2 international stock (taxable),
1 REIT (in a ROTH)
and now 4 bond funds (in a ROTH):

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Re: Foreign REIT vs. USA REIT?

Post by wolf359 »

How did you select those 4 bond funds? Why not just Total Bond Market? It's about 70% government and 30% corporate. Total Bond market is more of an intermediate bond fund rather than short. Although it has a little of everything, the average duration is about 6 years. TBM also has an expense ratio of .06%, which is much cheaper than the others.

For example, VFSTX (Short-term Investment Grade Fund Investor shares) has an ER of .20%. It has an SEC yield of 1.91%. .002/.0191 means expenses are costing you 10.5% of the yield every year because the expenses are high relative to the yield. You can't get the ER down to the cheaper Admiral shares until you invest $50,000, which will be a while.

In comparison, VFICX (Intermediate Term Investment-grade) has an SEC yield of 2.66%, and an ER of .2%. .002/.0266 means expenses cost you 7.5% of the bond yield every year.

VBTLX has an SEC yield of 2.47%, and an ER of .06%. .0006/.0247 means expenses cost you 2.4% of your bond yield each year. Partly this is because you can qualify for the Admiral shares at only $10,000.

Selecting those bond funds are more expensive -- what are you gaining for that loss in yield?

The idea is to know WHY you're buying what you're buying. I'm not arguing for or against. The key is that once you commit to an AA, you have to know why you selected what you did, so you can stick with it through thick and thin. There's no right or wrong answer here -- it's what's right or wrong for YOU.

Then, once you go through each element of your portfolio, write down your reasons why in your investment policy statement. When you're tempted to change, you can go back and validate your reasoning. You want to hold this selection for 10-30 years. If you keep changing your selections, you will end up underperforming against your indexes.
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Re: Foreign REIT vs. USA REIT?

Post by wolf359 »

Another thought: Try to put only equities in your Roth. In the end, you are going to want to hold onto your Roth assets as long as possible. Since they're tax-free, they're the most valuable tax advantaged space you have.

Therefore, you want to grow your Roth space to be as big as possible. Equities grow faster over the long term than bonds. You should populate Roth with equities.

I know the standard advice is to put bonds in tax advantaged. If you have space, they're better in traditional 401K or traditional IRA. If you don't have space, you might even be radical and start them in taxable. Sure, you'll get taxed on them, but currently tax rates are historically low, bonds aren't returning a whole lot at the moment, and you don't have a lot of bonds to begin with. It doesn't cost that much right now. As the tax advantage space grows, you can move bonds into them later.
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Re: Foreign REIT vs. USA REIT?

Post by siamond »

MikeT wrote:If owning foreign REIT and usa REIT is a good thing, should the relative allocation be 50%/50% or 1/3rd foreign and 2/3rd USA?
Here is an easy way to get out of your hesitations, buy a single Global REIT low-cost fund (ER=0.14%):
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/268 ... l-reit-etf

PS. this will also do with those pesky purchasing/redemption fees that VGRLX suffers from.
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Re: Foreign REIT vs. USA REIT?

Post by michaelsieg »

I agree with Wolf359 about the asset location.
The other issue I see is that your workplace S&P 500 fund has an ER of 0.62 - this raises the ER of your entire portfolio to almost 0.5%. It might be better to get a lower cost market index fund in a different account (assuming this is the cheapest market index fund your workplace retirement account provider offers) -hopefully you have a cheaper bond fund option in your workplace account available.
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Re: Foreign REIT vs. USA REIT?

Post by MikeT »

Thanks @michaelsieg, I wish I had cheaper options in my workplace 401k. The S&P index is the cheapest (bonds are more expensive).

Originally, I had my workplace 401k 70% in that S&P and 30% in the next least expensive fund which was a mid cap. However, I didn't have enough exposure to small/value so I went 50%/50% in the S&P and small/value which increased my expense ratio even more.

I'm hoping work will change providers and offer better / cheaper choices.

-Mike
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Re: Foreign REIT vs. USA REIT?

Post by MikeT »

siamond wrote:
MikeT wrote:
PS. this will also do with those pesky purchasing/redemption fees that VGRLX suffers from.
@siamond: if I'm a vanguard customer and buy VGRLX, am I subject to those pesky purchasing/redemption fees? (I'm not aware of this issue at all - am curious)

Thx
Mike
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Re: Foreign REIT vs. USA REIT?

Post by siamond »

MikeT wrote:@siamond: if I'm a vanguard customer and buy VGRLX, am I subject to those pesky purchasing/redemption fees? (I'm not aware of this issue at all - am curious)
Yes, you do, as I discovered to my dismay. :annoyed
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Re: Foreign REIT vs. USA REIT?

Post by abuss368 »

I would consider consolidating some of your funds and specifically the bond funds. Having four bond funds in an investment portfolio introduces additional expense and complexity. Vanguard is recommending a two bond fund strategy: Total Bond Index and Total International Bond Index.

Keep investing simple.
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Re: Foreign REIT vs. USA REIT?

Post by MikeT »

I very much want to simplify the bonds @abuss368

For an 80/20, what percentage of the two bond funds are recommended?

Thanks for mentioning this!
-Mike
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Re: Foreign REIT vs. USA REIT?

Post by MikeT »

BTW, this is my bond analysis from Vanguard Portfolio Watch:

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Re: Foreign REIT vs. USA REIT?

Post by abuss368 »

abuss368 wrote: Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:43 am Using these two funds will help fund retirement one day by providing cash flows from dividends.
Bogleheads -

I wrote this post a few years ago as I was thinking about International REITs earlier. Now I am not so sure with International REITs as the fund, while stating quarterly distributions, is paying annually.

I am not sure for the reasons why.

💪
Tony
Last edited by abuss368 on Sat Sep 11, 2021 8:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Foreign REIT vs. USA REIT?

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abuss368 wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:15 pm
abuss368 wrote: Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:43 am Using these two funds will help fund retirement one day by providing cash flows from dividends.
Bogleheads -

I wrote this post a few years ago as I was thinking about International REITs earlier. Now I am not so sure with International REITs as the fund, while stating quarterly distributions, is paying annually.

I am not sure for the reasons why.

💪
Tony
It shouldn't matter. These are funds you want in an IRA (because they have high tax costs), and in an IRA, there is no fundamental difference in when the dividends are distributed by a fund, since they have already been received. If your fund holds a share of stock which pays a $1 quarterly dividend, and you withdraw $1 from the IRA in March, you will have one share of the underlying stock whether the fund retained the dividend or distributed it.

For example, say that the stock has a share price of $100, and one share of the fund was one share of the stock in January. If the fund doesn't distribute the March dividend and the stock doesn't move, one share of the fund is worth $101, so it is more than one share of stock. You can sell $1 worth of the fund, leaving $100 in the fund which is .99 shares of the fund at $101 but still represents one share of stock. If the fund does distribute the March dividend and you spend it, you can spend the same $1 that was paid out as a dividend, and you still have $100 in the fund.

Note that this is only equivalent in an IRA. In a taxable account, if the fund did not distribute a dividend in March, you would have a capital gain selling a share to realize the $1 in spending money; you would then owe tax on the full $4 dividend in December even though you only needed to spend $1 of it.
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Re: Foreign REIT vs. USA REIT?

Post by abuss368 »

grabiner wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 5:52 pm
abuss368 wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:15 pm
abuss368 wrote: Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:43 am Using these two funds will help fund retirement one day by providing cash flows from dividends.
Bogleheads -

I wrote this post a few years ago as I was thinking about International REITs earlier. Now I am not so sure with International REITs as the fund, while stating quarterly distributions, is paying annually.

I am not sure for the reasons why.

💪
Tony
It shouldn't matter. These are funds you want in an IRA (because they have high tax costs), and in an IRA, there is no fundamental difference in when the dividends are distributed by a fund, since they have already been received. If your fund holds a share of stock which pays a $1 quarterly dividend, and you withdraw $1 from the IRA in March, you will have one share of the underlying stock whether the fund retained the dividend or distributed it.

For example, say that the stock has a share price of $100, and one share of the fund was one share of the stock in January. If the fund doesn't distribute the March dividend and the stock doesn't move, one share of the fund is worth $101, so it is more than one share of stock. You can sell $1 worth of the fund, leaving $100 in the fund which is .99 shares of the fund at $101 but still represents one share of stock. If the fund does distribute the March dividend and you spend it, you can spend the same $1 that was paid out as a dividend, and you still have $100 in the fund.

Note that this is only equivalent in an IRA. In a taxable account, if the fund did not distribute a dividend in March, you would have a capital gain selling a share to realize the $1 in spending money; you would then owe tax on the full $4 dividend in December even though you only needed to spend $1 of it.
Thanks David. The math makes sense. Why is the International REIT not paying dividends each quarter?

Tony
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Re: Foreign REIT vs. USA REIT?

Post by grabiner »

abuss368 wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:55 am
grabiner wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 5:52 pm
abuss368 wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:15 pm I wrote this post a few years ago as I was thinking about International REITs earlier. Now I am not so sure with International REITs as the fund, while stating quarterly distributions, is paying annually.
It shouldn't matter. These are funds you want in an IRA (because they have high tax costs), and in an IRA, there is no fundamental difference in when the dividends are distributed by a fund, since they have already been received. If your fund holds a share of stock which pays a $1 quarterly dividend, and you withdraw $1 from the IRA in March, you will have one share of the underlying stock whether the fund retained the dividend or distributed it.
Thanks David. The math makes sense. Why is the International REIT not paying dividends each quarter?
It is the fund's choice, but I would guess that it has to do with the way dividends are received. In the US, almost all dividend-paying stocks pay a dividend each quarter; in foreign countries, schedules may be different. Therefore, even for foreign-stock funds which do pay dividends each quarter, the income varies by quarter, which makes it hard to use directly as an income stream. (Consider, for example, Vanguard Total International Index; the December 2020 dividend was four times the March 2021 dividend.)
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Re: Foreign REIT vs. USA REIT?

Post by abuss368 »

grabiner wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:06 am
abuss368 wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:55 am
grabiner wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 5:52 pm
abuss368 wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:15 pm I wrote this post a few years ago as I was thinking about International REITs earlier. Now I am not so sure with International REITs as the fund, while stating quarterly distributions, is paying annually.
It shouldn't matter. These are funds you want in an IRA (because they have high tax costs), and in an IRA, there is no fundamental difference in when the dividends are distributed by a fund, since they have already been received. If your fund holds a share of stock which pays a $1 quarterly dividend, and you withdraw $1 from the IRA in March, you will have one share of the underlying stock whether the fund retained the dividend or distributed it.
Thanks David. The math makes sense. Why is the International REIT not paying dividends each quarter?
It is the fund's choice, but I would guess that it has to do with the way dividends are received. In the US, almost all dividend-paying stocks pay a dividend each quarter; in foreign countries, schedules may be different. Therefore, even for foreign-stock funds which do pay dividends each quarter, the income varies by quarter, which makes it hard to use directly as an income stream. (Consider, for example, Vanguard Total International Index; the December 2020 dividend was four times the March 2021 dividend.)
There is a lot of inconsistency each quarter in the dividend payouts of international funds. Many international companies pay dividends only once or twice a year. US companies tend to pay at a higher frequency.

It does appear that the Vanguard International High Dividend fund is a little more consistent. That may be based on the composition of the underlying companies in the index.

Tony
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