How will the market perform in 2017?

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maniminto
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How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by maniminto » Thu Jan 05, 2017 5:44 pm

I would like to invite your thoughts on how the market will perform in 2017 and why and what measures you are taking to take advantage of this situation.

Tamalak
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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by Tamalak » Thu Jan 05, 2017 5:45 pm

I think U.S. stocks will stagnate. I think International stocks will rise.

Measures I am taking based on these feelings: none.

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cheese_breath
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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by cheese_breath » Thu Jan 05, 2017 5:49 pm

I think it will either go up or down, either a little or a lot. I'm risking everything by staying the course.
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.

livesoft
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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by livesoft » Thu Jan 05, 2017 5:51 pm

I don't know how the market will perform in 2017 and I don't care because …

… my portfolio has index funds in US equities, international equities, and US bonds in ratios that I am very comfortable with. If equities go down, I will rebalance into equities. If bonds go down, I will rebalance into bonds. If equities go up, I will rebalance out of equities. If bonds go up, I will rebalance out of bonds.
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Dicast
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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by Dicast » Thu Jan 05, 2017 5:52 pm

The bull will run for another year. I haven't seen enough "Why not 100% stocks?" threads yet. I'm overall 80/20 and I don't see why I'd change that now.

mickens16
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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by mickens16 » Thu Jan 05, 2017 5:52 pm

Check out the responses in the BH 2017 contest, they're all over the place.

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=206949&newpost=3179980

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Toons
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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by Toons » Thu Jan 05, 2017 6:12 pm

Up and down,
Compounding will still remain in force
Stay The Course.
:D
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Wagnerjb
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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by Wagnerjb » Thu Jan 05, 2017 6:18 pm

It will fluctuate
Andy

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FelixTheCat
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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by FelixTheCat » Thu Jan 05, 2017 6:32 pm

Markets will remain flat on weekends and holidays. :happy

Nobody can predict the future. Keep a diversified portfolio of stocks/bonds and stay the course.
Felix is a wonderful, wonderful cat.

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ruralavalon
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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by ruralavalon » Thu Jan 05, 2017 6:34 pm

Wagnerjb wrote:It will fluctuate

That's a daring prediction, it's mine as well :) . I intend to stay invested in the same funds and allocation, so boring.
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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by Geologist » Thu Jan 05, 2017 6:36 pm

Wagnerjb wrote:It will fluctuate


I'm with Wagnerjb (and ruralavalon).

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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by David Jay » Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:04 pm

See my signature line below
|
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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by abuss368 » Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:09 pm

Bogleheads,

No one will know with any certainty how the stock and bond markets will perform this year or next. We can develop a reasonable investment plan and strategy by keeping costs low, diversifying, and staying the course.

Best.
John C. Bogle: "You simply do not need to put your money into 8 different mutual funds!" | | Disclosure: Three Fund Portfolio + U.S. & International REITs

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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by abuss368 » Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:11 pm

We gave up marketing timing and security selection many years ago after we realized all the fees and losses were hurting our financial future.

Thank you Jack Bogle for Vanguard and helping the little guy earn their fair share of whatever the markets return!
John C. Bogle: "You simply do not need to put your money into 8 different mutual funds!" | | Disclosure: Three Fund Portfolio + U.S. & International REITs

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Hawaiishrimp
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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by Hawaiishrimp » Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:13 pm

I think it will go up.
I save and invest my money, so money can make money for me, so I don't have to make money eventually.

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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by Peculiar_Investor » Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:19 pm

livesoft wrote:I don't know how the market will perform in 2017 and I don't care because …

… my portfolio has index funds in US equities, international equities, and US bonds in ratios that I am very comfortable with. If equities go down, I will rebalance into equities. If bonds go down, I will rebalance into bonds. If equities go up, I will rebalance out of equities. If bonds go up, I will rebalance out of bonds.

Well stated. As the OP is new here, he/she should give this serious thought and weight.

Added: OP might also consider reading Bogleheads® investing start-up kit - Bogleheads from the wiki.
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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by oldcomputerguy » Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:30 pm

I could make a guess, but it would only be a guess, and would almost by necessity be influenced by the current political landscape, and so I will refrain here.

That being said, hopefully my AA is such that I'll weather whatever happens.
Anybody know why there's a 20-pound frozen turkey up in the light grid?

maniminto
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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by maniminto » Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:50 pm

livesoft wrote:I don't know how the market will perform in 2017 and I don't care because …

… my portfolio has index funds in US equities, international equities, and US bonds in ratios that I am very comfortable with. If equities go down, I will rebalance into equities. If bonds go down, I will rebalance into bonds. If equities go up, I will rebalance out of equities. If bonds go up, I will rebalance out of bonds.


Hi livesoft- how often do you rebalance your portfolio?

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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by Fallible » Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:56 pm

maniminto wrote:I would like to invite your thoughts on how the market will perform in 2017 and why and what measures you are taking to take advantage of this situation.


The "measures" Bogleheads generally take, i.e., their asset allocations reflecting their need, ability, and willingness to take risk, are based on realizing they can't know what the market will do.

I agree with poster Peculiar_Investor that you should check out the "Investing Start-up Kit" in the Bogleheads' wiki and its links.
Last edited by Fallible on Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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FIREchief
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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by FIREchief » Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:57 pm

Like the song goes, "Same as it ever was......"
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.

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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by whodidntante » Thu Jan 05, 2017 8:00 pm

Dicast wrote:The bull will run for another year. I haven't seen enough "Why not 100% stocks?" threads yet. I'm overall 80/20 and I don't see why I'd change that now.


I was thinking of starting a thread about using trend following as a replacement for bonds. Might that trigger the downturn?

livesoft
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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by livesoft » Thu Jan 05, 2017 8:02 pm

maniminto wrote:Hi livesoft- how often do you rebalance your portfolio?

More often than most folks because I have a volatile portfolio tilted to small-caps and value equities. I do not rebalance on a calendar schedule, but have proprietary algorithms to suggest to me when I need to rebalance my portfolio.

See also:
viewtopic.php?t=118815
and
viewtopic.php?p=3146881#p3146881

What is your rebalancing plan?
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F150HD
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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by F150HD » Thu Jan 05, 2017 8:26 pm

maniminto wrote:I would like to invite your thoughts on how the market will perform in 2017 and why and what measures you are taking to take advantage of this situation.


I'm a believer in the Lipstick Effect so I hang out at the local Marshall Fields and watch lips and sales and when the time is ripe, move my money into bonds.

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just frank
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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by just frank » Thu Jan 05, 2017 8:38 pm

I think US markets and the dollar will be 'fine' for at least 12 to 18 mos, with the usual correction(s) occurring.

What I am doing: Sticking to my current AA (US-equity biased), and waiting for you guys to call the dollar top so I know when to finally diversify international.

Dicast
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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by Dicast » Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:00 am

whodidntante wrote:
Dicast wrote:The bull will run for another year. I haven't seen enough "Why not 100% stocks?" threads yet. I'm overall 80/20 and I don't see why I'd change that now.


I was thinking of starting a thread about using trend following as a replacement for bonds. Might that trigger the downturn?


Following trends to the end is the surest way to trigger the next downturn. Stocks will never go down again! Its all up from here baby! Hatchimals are the next gold! Unless a resistance level is hit and then we have to pull out or something etc...

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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by Saphomd » Fri Jan 06, 2017 1:57 pm

Market will go sideways first 3 months, down next 4, and finish up at the end of the year.
Inflation will go up and I will be contributing more to my VG TIPS fund :happy

magicrat
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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by magicrat » Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:13 pm

Very high probability that it will either go up or down, though some small chance that it stays exactly the same.

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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by pkcrafter » Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:32 pm

F150HD wrote:
maniminto wrote:I would like to invite your thoughts on how the market will perform in 2017 and why and what measures you are taking to take advantage of this situation.


I'm a believer in the Lipstick Effect so I hang out at the local Marshall Fields and watch lips and sales and when the time is ripe, move my money into bonds.

Is this like the old skirt length effect?

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/ski ... theory.asp

Lots of lipstick and long skirts = bad maket returns. You may laugh, but these indicators are as accurate as any others. :happy

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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by nisiprius » Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:49 pm

maniminto wrote:I would like to invite your thoughts on how the market will perform in 2017...
I don't know, and I don't think anyone I know or can read in the financial press knows, either.
...and why and what measures you are taking to take advantage of this situation.
I personally don't think I can take advantage of this situation, so I am taking no measures. (I think it's possible that there could be some people in a position to take advantage of it, but I'm pretty sure I'm not one of them.)
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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Index Fan
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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by Index Fan » Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:56 pm

Wagnerjb wrote:It will fluctuate


:mrgreen:
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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by investnoob » Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:14 pm

I don't know how it will perform. I am 40% cash and 60% mutual stock funds (a mix between European index, S&P 500, and TSX). I don't really have a rebalancing plan. I like having the cash but I am debating keeping it in my high interest savings account, putting it towards my mortgage, or investing it should the stocks fall under 50% of my total savings.

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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by F150HD » Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:18 pm

pkcrafter wrote:
F150HD wrote:
maniminto wrote:I would like to invite your thoughts on how the market will perform in 2017 and why and what measures you are taking to take advantage of this situation.


I'm a believer in the Lipstick Effect so I hang out at the local Marshall Fields and watch lips and sales and when the time is ripe, move my money into bonds.

Is this like the old skirt length effect?

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/ski ... theory.asp

Lots of lipstick and long skirts = bad maket returns. You may laugh, but these indicators are as accurate as any others. :happy

Paul


I'll watch lipstick AND skirts then. But in a cold midwest, that means the market tanks every November. :/

maniminto
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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by maniminto » Fri Jan 06, 2017 6:42 pm

livesoft wrote:
maniminto wrote:Hi livesoft- how often do you rebalance your portfolio?

More often than most folks because I have a volatile portfolio tilted to small-caps and value equities. I do not rebalance on a calendar schedule, but have proprietary algorithms to suggest to me when I need to rebalance my portfolio.

See also:
viewtopic.php?t=118815
and
viewtopic.php?p=3146881#p3146881

What is your rebalancing plan?


Very infrequent balancing- Rebalanced in 2005 from tech to diversified portfolio, stayed invested through great recession but started adding taxable savings to muni bond funds rather than equities starting in 2010. Moved money out of equities in December 2015 & January 2016 to cash. Moved money out of bond funds after presidential election. Predominantly in cash now except for Stable Value funds in 401k accounts.

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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by blueblock » Fri Jan 06, 2017 7:27 pm

maniminto wrote:I would like to invite your thoughts on how the market will perform in 2017 and why and what measures you are taking to take advantage of this situation.


I think/hope that the market will return 5-7% in 2017.

Measures I'm taking: none.

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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by gilgamesh » Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:25 pm

Of course no one knows what the market will do this year, except that it will fluctuate. However, if I am to guess, I'd say the US stocks will go up by 10-12% and International around 7-8%.

I am of course not doing anything different as it is just a guess. I have a solid plan and it ain't changing. If plans change with annual predictions, it's not a plan at all.

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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by MrKnight » Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:43 pm

My predictions that is subject to change:

Irrational euphoria, deregulation, tax cuts, and economic stimulus will lead to a good year for the markets in 2017 like how it was for 2016. Markets will start to cool in 2018. By 2019 we may begin encroaching on a recession... recession has been until this time staved off by constrained growth but booming markets will lead the way to another recession as asset prices readjust. International stocks will experience lesser decline as their valuations have been more subdued up to this point.

S&P 500 returns by year:

2017: 14%
2018: 8%
2019: 2% Potential Recession
2020: Potential Recession
Last edited by MrKnight on Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:57 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by RAchip » Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:56 pm

I don't know and I don't care. I buy what I think are great companies that are large blue chip types that are committed to paying a reasonable and growing dividend and mostly hold forever. My portfolio is currently 23 stocks. I add to my holdings on dips for particular stocks and general downturns. I am prepared to at least double my stock portfolio if the opportunity arises or I am fine with letting cash build up. The dividends on my portfolio put my income around the top 1% so its a fairly big portfolio by most standards. I don't buy index funds. That's for the heard. I'm just a somewhat slow-whited independent old country lawyer who likes to be a long term owner of what I think are great companies. That's not how most around here think, but I enjoy the arguments even though I prefer doing it my way.

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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by telemark » Sat Jan 07, 2017 7:26 am

Wagnerjb wrote:It will fluctuate

And I plan to save and rebalance as needed.

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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by sauron22333 » Sat Jan 07, 2017 10:34 am

It is strange to see people's responses on his thread when many of us did predict a 2017 year end number for S&P in the Bogleheads challenge. My prediction is for S&P to go up by 10 percent. International to outperform US equities in 2017.

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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by maniminto » Sat Jan 07, 2017 11:16 am

RAchip wrote:I don't know and I don't care. I buy what I think are great companies that are large blue chip types that are committed to paying a reasonable and growing dividend and mostly hold forever. My portfolio is currently 23 stocks. I add to my holdings on dips for particular stocks and general downturns. I am prepared to at least double my stock portfolio if the opportunity arises or I am fine with letting cash build up. The dividends on my portfolio put my income around the top 1% so its a fairly big portfolio by most standards. I don't buy index funds. That's for the heard. I'm just a somewhat slow-whited independent old country lawyer who likes to be a long term owner of what I think are great companies. That's not how most around here think, but I enjoy the arguments even though I prefer doing it my way.


Hi RAchip- have you typically done better that the overall market return (S&P) if you look at the performance for the past 15-20 years?

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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by RAchip » Sat Jan 07, 2017 4:00 pm

"have you typically done better that the overall market return (S&P) if you look at the performance for the past 15-20 years?"

I pulled all my money from private banking about 4 years ago (I didn't like paying fees for them to invest in other products that charged fees and I just concluded the whole money management thing is pretty much a scam). So I've only been doing it my way for about 4 years. My portfolio beat the S&P since I started before even factoring in dividends. But I may well not beat the S&P over time and I honestly do not care and only know the answer to your question because I looked it up to be able to answer. I am not trying to "win" a contest with anyone. I have enough money that I can put together a nice portfolio of well known individual stocks (no REITS or MLPs) that are committed to paying dividends a bit higher than average and growing them over time and it costs me ZERO in fees (I get 100 free trades/year and don't use close to that). I want to just live off the dividends. In 20 years I think it is a virtual certainty that the portfolio value will be much higher. This is what I want to do. Others say this is foolish and someone in my position should buy index funds. Perhaps they will be proven right at some point. But I made my money by doing things the way I thought was best not by doing what everyone else was doing. With my approach it makes no difference what the market does year to year ( actually I have a good bit more cash to invest so I would welcome more "corrections"). I never have to sell stocks. The dividends always get paid and are pretty much certain to grow well above inflation.

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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by Index Fan » Sat Jan 07, 2017 4:16 pm

Image
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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by TinkerPDX » Sat Jan 07, 2017 4:40 pm

livesoft wrote:I don't know how the market will perform in 2017 and I don't care because …

… my portfolio has index funds in US equities, international equities, and US bonds in ratios that I am very comfortable with. If equities go down, I will rebalance into equities. If bonds go down, I will rebalance into bonds. If equities go up, I will rebalance out of equities. If bonds go up, I will rebalance out of bonds.


+1

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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by TinkerPDX » Sat Jan 07, 2017 4:45 pm

maniminto wrote:
livesoft wrote:
maniminto wrote:Hi livesoft- how often do you rebalance your portfolio?

More often than most folks because I have a volatile portfolio tilted to small-caps and value equities. I do not rebalance on a calendar schedule, but have proprietary algorithms to suggest to me when I need to rebalance my portfolio.

See also:
viewtopic.php?t=118815
and
viewtopic.php?p=3146881#p3146881

What is your rebalancing plan?


Very infrequent balancing- Rebalanced in 2005 from tech to diversified portfolio, stayed invested through great recession but started adding taxable savings to muni bond funds rather than equities starting in 2010. Moved money out of equities in December 2015 & January 2016 to cash. Moved money out of bond funds after presidential election. Predominantly in cash now except for Stable Value funds in 401k accounts.


This does it sound like rebalancing, but market timing and/or AA changes.

Do you have an AA to rebalance to?

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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by gilgamesh » Sun Jan 08, 2017 8:53 am

RAchip wrote:"have you typically done better that the overall market return (S&P) if you look at the performance for the past 15-20 years?"

I pulled all my money from private banking about 4 years ago (I didn't like paying fees for them to invest in other products that charged fees and I just concluded the whole money management thing is pretty much a scam). So I've only been doing it my way for about 4 years. My portfolio beat the S&P since I started before even factoring in dividends. But I may well not beat the S&P over time and I honestly do not care and only know the answer to your question because I looked it up to be able to answer. I am not trying to "win" a contest with anyone. I have enough money that I can put together a nice portfolio of well known individual stocks (no REITS or MLPs) that are committed to paying dividends a bit higher than average and growing them over time and it costs me ZERO in fees (I get 100 free trades/year and don't use close to that). I want to just live off the dividends. In 20 years I think it is a virtual certainty that the portfolio value will be much higher. This is what I want to do. Others say this is foolish and someone in my position should buy index funds. Perhaps they will be proven right at some point. But I made my money by doing things the way I thought was best not by doing what everyone else was doing. With my approach it makes no difference what the market does year to year ( actually I have a good bit more cash to invest so I would welcome more "corrections"). I never have to sell stocks. The dividends always get paid and are pretty much certain to grow well above inflation.


I've found out, this misconception of dividends and not having to sell stocks is pretty common. This is the first time I've heard that means it didn't matter what the market does.....but, as long as it works for you, right :sharebeer

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Re: How will the market perform in 2017?

Post by TheTimeLord » Sun Jan 08, 2017 9:54 am

maniminto wrote:I would like to invite your thoughts on how the market will perform in 2017 and why and what measures you are taking to take advantage of this situation.


My thoughts are this is the wrong question to ask because you will alter how you invest your money based on the answer. The question you need to ask is how much risk am I will to bear in 2017 then develop your AA accordingly or better yet follow the long term plan you set out in your IPS. Constantly taking the temperature of the market can be stressful and possibly lead to impulsive decisions.
Run, You Clever Boy!

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