Any Buffett fans here?

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Punta Cana DR
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Any Buffett fans here?

Post by Punta Cana DR » Fri Dec 30, 2016 9:11 pm

My thought is Warren, not Jimmy.

With the USD down? Does International look cheap?

tigerdoc93
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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by tigerdoc93 » Fri Dec 30, 2016 9:19 pm

Yes. I'm reading The Snowball currently.

Punta Cana DR
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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by Punta Cana DR » Fri Dec 30, 2016 9:26 pm

I was using sarcasm that you caught...but others? All I hear is AA mantra, but times change to buy deals/assets?

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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by Call_Me_Op » Sat Dec 31, 2016 8:08 am

Punta Cana DR wrote:I was using sarcasm that you caught...but others? All I hear is AA mantra, but times change to buy deals/assets?


Yes, that is known as speculation.
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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by alex_686 » Sat Dec 31, 2016 8:23 am

I am not entirely sure of the point that you are trying to make. I can be a fan of Jimmy Buffett. I can play the guitar. That does not mean I can play the guitar like Jimmy Buffett. Or that I want to spend the time to horn my skills in music. My skills lay in other places so I spend my time and effort in those places.

For most people AA is the thing. It is the building blocks of investments.

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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by nisiprius » Sat Dec 31, 2016 8:35 am

Yes, there are definitely some. However... the site does have a masthead...

Image

and emphasizes the Bogleheads investment philosophy, which places a strong emphasis on buying index funds and staying the course, rather than trying to pick value stocks.

Interestingly enough, this happens to be what Warren Buffett himself has frequently recommended. At the 2008 shareholder's meeting, he was asked "How would you invest your first million dollars?" and he replied “I’d put it all in a low-cost index fund that tracks the S&P 500 and get back to work.” In 2008, he also chose an S&P 500 index fund for his famous ten-year bet; he is betting that it will beat a portfolio of five hedge funds chosen by Protégé Partners.

And, it is worth noting what Buffett's mentor, Benjamin Graham, said in 1976:
Q: In selecting the common stock portfolio, do you advise careful study of and selectivity among different issues?

Graham: In general, no. I am no longer an advocate of elaborate techniques of security analysis in order to find superior value opportunities. This was a rewarding activity, say, 40 years ago, when our textbook "Graham and Dodd" was first published; but the situation has changed a great deal since then. In the old days any well-trained security analyst could do a good professional job of selecting undervalued issues through detailed studies; but in the light of the enormous amount of research now being carried on, I doubt whether in most cases such extensive efforts will generate sufficiently superior selections to justify their cost.
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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by nisiprius » Sat Dec 31, 2016 8:44 am

Punta Cana DR wrote:With the USD down? Does International look cheap?
What has Warren Buffett said about international stocks? I am not a Buffett fan and don't follow him closely, but I can't recall him ever saying anything very favorable about international stocks. If you can, I'd like to have the actual quotation.

All I remember is his instructing his trustees to invest the money he's leaving for his wife 90% in an S&P 500 fund, 10% in Treasuries... in other words, U.S. only.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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just frank
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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by just frank » Sat Dec 31, 2016 8:47 am

Nope, not so much. I see him as a kinda evil Garrison Keillor. But I find the latter's show more entertaining.

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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by qwertyjazz » Sat Dec 31, 2016 8:52 am

nisiprius wrote:Yes, there are definitely some. However... the site does have a masthead...

Image

and emphasizes the Bogleheads investment philosophy, which places a strong emphasis on buying index funds and staying the course, rather than trying to pick value stocks.

Interestingly enough, this happens to be what Warren Buffett himself has frequently recommended. At the 2008 shareholder's meeting, he was asked "How would you invest your first million dollars?" and he replied “I’d put it all in a low-cost index fund that tracks the S&P 500 and get back to work.” In 2008, he also chose an S&P 500 index fund for his famous ten-year bet; he is betting that it will beat a portfolio of five hedge funds chosen by Protégé Partners.

And, it is worth noting what Buffett's mentor, Benjamin Graham, said in 1976:
Q: In selecting the common stock portfolio, do you advise careful study of and selectivity among different issues?

Graham: In general, no. I am no longer an advocate of elaborate techniques of security analysis in order to find superior value opportunities. This was a rewarding activity, say, 40 years ago, when our textbook "Graham and Dodd" was first published; but the situation has changed a great deal since then. In the old days any well-trained security analyst could do a good professional job of selecting undervalued issues through detailed studies; but in the light of the enormous amount of research now being carried on, I doubt whether in most cases such extensive efforts will generate sufficiently superior selections to justify their cost.


Interesting quote. It makes you wonder about markets that are as well observed as the stock market was up to the 1950's (not sure of my time line here). There is a common theme among multiple threads about local markets in real estate or in goods (ice cream parlor etc) or in direct lending. Does valuation like techniques still work there? Is it an illusion etc? Are there markets where the logical equivalent of stock picking still can be done?

Thank you for the interesting quote
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JoMoney
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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by JoMoney » Sat Dec 31, 2016 10:14 am

I'm a big fan of Warren Buffett
Warren Buffett wrote:" ... I recommend John Bogle's books -- any investor in funds should read them. They have all you need to know."
http://www.thebuffett.com/quotes/Invest ... roach.html
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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JoMoney
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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by JoMoney » Sat Dec 31, 2016 10:23 am

qwertyjazz wrote:...Does valuation like techniques still work there? Is it an illusion etc? Are there markets where the logical equivalent of stock picking still can be done? ...
I believe valuation works, the problem for the large majority of investors is if you expect to use valuation techniques to garner you above 'average' results, you need to know something more about what you're buying then the competition (other buyers and sellers in the market). For most investors, going in to the securities market and trying to make fancy moves is a recipe for disaster.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-to ... 2014-03-28
... A huge gulf exists between the skill and ability of professional investors and their amateur counterparts; whose actions are often just emotional speculations. Unlike amateur golfers and tennis players, amateur investors play on the same field as the professionals at the same time. Most personal finance books promise market beating strategies; promoting the crazy idea that you can beat the professionals at their own game. Sure, and I can go one-on-one with Tiger Woods.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by Watty » Sat Dec 31, 2016 11:21 am

JoMoney wrote:
qwertyjazz wrote:...Does valuation like techniques still work there? Is it an illusion etc? Are there markets where the logical equivalent of stock picking still can be done? ...


I believe valuation works, the problem for the large majority of investors is if you expect to use valuation techniques to garner you above 'average' results, you need to know something more about what you're buying then the competition (other buyers and sellers in the market). For most investors, going in to the securities market and trying to make fancy moves is a recipe for disaster.


+1

If I remember correctly part of what he likes to do is to meet the managers and get a personal feel for the company then keep the same management team in place after he buys the company. He uses his knowledge of the companies books, the industry, and management to figure out what he considers be the intrinsic value of what the company is worth. An individual would usually only have access to the companies financial statements and a superficial understanding of the business.

Another problem is that to have a well diversified portfolio you don't just need to find a great deal on a stock you have to find 20 or more of them. I would be concerned that your 20th best choice might not be all that good.

I have not followed it closely but my impression is that he makes these types of purchases;

1) Shares of large publicly traded companies mainly based on valuation(IBM, Coke, etc)
2) Buying entire companies where he has confidence in the business and management. Often these are family owned companies where the family is looking to diversify. These companies often come to him and ask if he would be interested in buying the company.
3) Opportunistic investments where people come to him because they need a couple of billion dollars, like during the financial crisis in 2008.

An individual investor would only have access to the first types of purchases so it would be hard to replicate his investments.

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stemikger
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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by stemikger » Sat Dec 31, 2016 11:30 am

I'm a HUGE Warren Buffet fan and I'm a HUGE John Bogle fan. I even have (what I think is a bit of a strange hobby) where I collect their autographs when I can find them for a reasonable price on ebay. I have several books signed by John Bogle and I paid up for Warren's signature which does not come cheap. I have 3 of Warren's and 4 of Charlie Mungers. I think I can stop now.

If you go on ebay Warren's can fetch up to $2,000, so when I see it for a lot less, I bid and I actually got luck on 3 separate occasions.

As much as I love Warren, I know I can never invest like him, but the good news is he doesn't want you too. When he talks to the average person investing for retirement, he almost gives the identical advice that John Bogle gives except Warren is not a fan of a heavy bond allocation. Other than that, it is identical.

So, it's a win, win! Admire Buffett because he is the Oracle but invest like Jack because he is the Saint.

Stay the Course!
Choose Simplicity ~ Stay the Course!! ~ Press on Regardless!!!

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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by bondsr4me » Sat Dec 31, 2016 11:37 am

BIG fan of Warren B (and Jimmy B too).

Warren is on my Mt Rushmore of Investing along with Jack B, Charlie M and Ben G.

Happy New Year to everyone.

Don

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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by spectec » Sat Dec 31, 2016 5:23 pm

nisiprius wrote:
Punta Cana DR wrote:With the USD down? Does International look cheap?
What has Warren Buffett said about international stocks? I am not a Buffett fan and don't follow him closely, but I can't recall him ever saying anything very favorable about international stocks. If you can, I'd like to have the actual quotation.


“For 240 years it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America…America’s kids will live far better than their parents did.” - Warren Buffett (Feb 2016)
Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it. - Will Rogers

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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by JoMoney » Sun Jan 01, 2017 10:34 am

spectec wrote:
nisiprius wrote:
Punta Cana DR wrote:With the USD down? Does International look cheap?
What has Warren Buffett said about international stocks? I am not a Buffett fan and don't follow him closely, but I can't recall him ever saying anything very favorable about international stocks. If you can, I'd like to have the actual quotation.


“For 240 years it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America…America’s kids will live far better than their parents did.” - Warren Buffett (Feb 2016)


Buffett has been pretty blunt and terse with his comments as far as advice for what most investors should do (low cost diversified index fund). You can find some quotes about foreign investing with regard to Buffetts own decision process for how he/Berkshire invests over here: http://www.thebuffett.com/quotes/Foreig ... ments.html
It's quite clear, that he does invest for Berkshire outside the U.S., but you can decide for yourself if it's acceptable to take snips out of context like:
BUFFETT:"...We have a number of businesses that derive very significant percentages of their revenue from international operations ... It's a slight advantage to us having U.S.-domiciled companies..."
MUNGER:"...we have a wonderful way of playing the rapid development of companies outside the United States. So far, we haven't seen anything that has attracted us as being better. If you can sell Coca-Cola, do you really want to get into steel in Malaysia or something?..."

"...We care about the country where the company is run. There is a disadvantage being outside of the US."

"...I am never quite as happy as I am in the US, because the laws are more uncertain elsewhere..."

"...don’t need to win every game, just the ones I play. I have three mailboxes in my office – IN, OUT, and TOO HARD..."
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by Ged » Sun Jan 01, 2017 10:44 am

I'm not sure I'd say I'm a fan of Warren Buffett, but I do respect his opinions when he agrees with mine, which seems to be most of the time.

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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by alexost » Sun Jan 01, 2017 11:11 am

Me. I started out investing seriously with Buffett/Graham style value investing and have done well picking individual stocks but some time ago switched to index investing with the majority of my investments.

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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by edge » Mon Jan 02, 2017 2:45 am

I am sure there are fans of Warren Buffett here. But what is your point? It is exactly the same as being a fan as Jimmy Buffett. Entertaining to watch but it is not like we can all be him.

Punta Cana DR wrote:My thought is Warren, not Jimmy.

With the USD down? Does International look cheap?

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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by stemikger » Mon Jan 02, 2017 10:03 am

edge wrote:I am sure there are fans of Warren Buffett here. But what is your point? It is exactly the same as being a fan as Jimmy Buffett. Entertaining to watch but it is not like we can all be him.

Punta Cana DR wrote:My thought is Warren, not Jimmy.

With the USD down? Does International look cheap?


Like I said above, I am a huge fan of Warren Buffett. Having said that, I learned more about life and how to live it from Mr. Buffett than investing.
Choose Simplicity ~ Stay the Course!! ~ Press on Regardless!!!

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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by bondsr4me » Mon Jan 02, 2017 10:08 am

stemikger wrote:
edge wrote:I am sure there are fans of Warren Buffett here. But what is your point? It is exactly the same as being a fan as Jimmy Buffett. Entertaining to watch but it is not like we can all be him.

Punta Cana DR wrote:My thought is Warren, not Jimmy.

With the USD down? Does International look cheap?


Like I said above, I am a huge fan of Warren Buffett. Having said that, I learned more about life and how to live it from Mr. Buffett than investing.


+1

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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by betablocker » Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:12 am

It's fascinating to see how people react to Buffett. In my view he mastered a form of investing that worked mysteriously until the academic research figured out what was really going on. Now you can buy diversified value and quality factor tilted funds. You can do what Buffett did in a more diversified way. In some ways Graham's quote sums that up. All those quotes from Munger and Buffett about international are really meaningless if you are an index/passive investor. They are looking to buy individual companies, the passive investor is not. It's no harder to buy Developed Markets than it is to buy S&P 500. They are playing a game the passive investor isn't playing so that advice doesn't apply. Even when Buffett or Bogle recommends only S&P 500 or only domestic investing I'd be wary of following their advice blindly. All great people have incredible insights at some point or they wouldn't be great people but the rest of the world is smart too and eventually catches up. As much as I respect both, they are the product of a different time. The US is still 50% of global market cap but it won't be forever.

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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by Tamalak » Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:46 am

Yes, I am a fan of Buffett. He's living proof that it's possible to beat the market. I like seeing some Bogleheads treat him like a space alien. Apparently it's too hard for some to come to the conclusion that "one CAN beat the market, but I can't, therefore I'll passively invest" instead of "It's impossible to beat the market, so I'll passively invest because I'm smarter and better than all those scrambling day traders, ha!"

I like this quote from Buffett. He was asked how he became so successful in investing. He said: "We read hundreds and hundreds of annual reports every year".

I'm not willing to put in that work. So I passively invest.

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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by nisiprius » Mon Jan 02, 2017 5:41 pm

Tamalak wrote:...I like this quote from Buffett. He was asked how he became so successful in investing. He said: "We read hundreds and hundreds of annual reports every year". I'm not willing to put in that work. So I passively invest.
One of the reasons I became an index investor was that I inherited some individual stocks and got the annual reports in the mail. So I tried to read them. I quickly learned that the chairman's comments weren't very interesting "We are facing both challenges and opportunities..." So I would try to make sense of the balance sheet, and couldn't.

And then I decided to study for a little-known credential, the Certificate in Data Processing, which was 1/5th accounting, so I crammed enough Accounting 101 to pass the exam and then tries to make sense out of the balance sheet in the annual report...
...and still couldn't.

Of all the books I've heard mentioned in this forum, I don't think I've ever yet heard anyone mention this one (quick check: Google says it's been mentioned three times, versus over a thousand for "The Intelligent Investor:")
Image
The Interpretation of Financial Statements

Of course I suspect something more modern than 1937 might be needed, accounting standards having changed since then. But still.

How on earth can people seriously think they have any business mucking around with individual stocks if they can't interpet the financial statements? Knowing perfectly well that there are many people out there who can?
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by racy » Mon Jan 02, 2017 6:48 pm

Yep. Bought 1 share in 1987 for $2975 after the October crash. I'm not smart enough to pick stocks, so I bought a share of someone who can.

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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by abuss368 » Mon Jan 02, 2017 9:52 pm

stemikger wrote:I'm a HUGE Warren Buffet fan and I'm a HUGE John Bogle fan. I even have (what I think is a bit of a strange hobby) where I collect their autographs when I can find them for a reasonable price on ebay. I have several books signed by John Bogle and I paid up for Warren's signature which does not come cheap. I have 3 of Warren's and 4 of Charlie Mungers. I think I can stop now.

If you go on ebay Warren's can fetch up to $2,000, so when I see it for a lot less, I bid and I actually got luck on 3 separate occasions.

As much as I love Warren, I know I can never invest like him, but the good news is he doesn't want you too. When he talks to the average person investing for retirement, he almost gives the identical advice that John Bogle gives except Warren is not a fan of a heavy bond allocation. Other than that, it is identical.

So, it's a win, win! Admire Buffett because he is the Oracle but invest like Jack because he is the Saint.

Stay the Course!


Nice post and well said.
John C. Bogle: "You simply do not need to put your money into 8 different mutual funds!" | | Disclosure: Three Fund Portfolio + U.S. & International REITs

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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by abuss368 » Mon Jan 02, 2017 9:56 pm

Here is my confusion sometimes: Buffett has invested in an Israeli company and also Chinese Companies......

Help!
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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by cheesepep » Mon Jan 02, 2017 10:03 pm

I'm a fan of him and other guys, such as HK's Lui Che Woo.

Image

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stemikger
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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by stemikger » Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:44 am

abuss368 wrote:Here is my confusion sometimes: Buffett has invested in an Israeli company and also Chinese Companies......

Help!


Hi Tony,

As a value investor, if Warren finds a company that fits his criteria, he does not care where it is. When talking to the average investor, he thinks America as a whole is the place to be. He does not want us little guys playing his game because very few can do it, but via index funds, he often says you can't bet against America and win which is why he recommends a U.S. index.
Choose Simplicity ~ Stay the Course!! ~ Press on Regardless!!!

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stemikger
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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by stemikger » Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:44 am

abuss368 wrote:
stemikger wrote:I'm a HUGE Warren Buffet fan and I'm a HUGE John Bogle fan. I even have (what I think is a bit of a strange hobby) where I collect their autographs when I can find them for a reasonable price on ebay. I have several books signed by John Bogle and I paid up for Warren's signature which does not come cheap. I have 3 of Warren's and 4 of Charlie Mungers. I think I can stop now.

If you go on ebay Warren's can fetch up to $2,000, so when I see it for a lot less, I bid and I actually got luck on 3 separate occasions.

As much as I love Warren, I know I can never invest like him, but the good news is he doesn't want you too. When he talks to the average person investing for retirement, he almost gives the identical advice that John Bogle gives except Warren is not a fan of a heavy bond allocation. Other than that, it is identical.

So, it's a win, win! Admire Buffett because he is the Oracle but invest like Jack because he is the Saint.

Stay the Course!


Nice post and well said.


Thanks Tony!!
Choose Simplicity ~ Stay the Course!! ~ Press on Regardless!!!

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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by Nowizard » Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:08 am

Definitely, particularly after he gave a share of Berkshire to my son and several of his workmates when they presented him with a company analysis during a trip to Omaha (Buffett actually acquired majority interest in the company soon thereafter). Unfortunately, it was a B share while the professor was given an A share.

Tim

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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by qwertyjazz » Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:33 am

nisiprius wrote:
Tamalak wrote:...I like this quote from Buffett. He was asked how he became so successful in investing. He said: "We read hundreds and hundreds of annual reports every year". I'm not willing to put in that work. So I passively invest.
One of the reasons I became an index investor was that I inherited some individual stocks and got the annual reports in the mail. So I tried to read them. I quickly learned that the chairman's comments weren't very interesting "We are facing both challenges and opportunities..." So I would try to make sense of the balance sheet, and couldn't.

And then I decided to study for a little-known credential, the Certificate in Data Processing, which was 1/5th accounting, so I crammed enough Accounting 101 to pass the exam and then tries to make sense out of the balance sheet in the annual report...
...and still couldn't.

Of all the books I've heard mentioned in this forum, I don't think I've ever yet heard anyone mention this one (quick check: Google says it's been mentioned three times, versus over a thousand for "The Intelligent Investor:")
Image
The Interpretation of Financial Statements

Of course I suspect something more modern than 1937 might be needed, accounting standards having changed since then. But still.

How on earth can people seriously think they have any business mucking around with individual stocks if they can't interpet the financial statements? Knowing perfectly well that there are many people out there who can?


Reading now
Thank you
QJ
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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by nedsaid » Tue Jan 03, 2017 7:00 pm

I am a fan of Warren Buffett as a businessman and investor. Don't care for his politics. I have learned a lot from him but I don't have my mini-Berkshire-Hathaway yet! :wink:
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by JoMoney » Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:59 pm

nedsaid wrote:I am a fan of Warren Buffett as a businessman and investor. Don't care for his politics. I have learned a lot from him but I don't have my mini-Berkshire-Hathaway yet! :wink:

I think it's interesting that him and Charlie Munger seem to share a great deal in their thinking, but still contrasting beliefs on politics. Munger strikes me as bitingly pragmatic, while Buffett seems to have more heart (a lot of which he seems to credit to his wife 'Susie'). But they continue to work together and get along quite well, which is something that seems rare in the current partisan divide.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by nedsaid » Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:24 pm

JoMoney wrote:
nedsaid wrote:I am a fan of Warren Buffett as a businessman and investor. Don't care for his politics. I have learned a lot from him but I don't have my mini-Berkshire-Hathaway yet! :wink:

I think it's interesting that him and Charlie Munger seem to share a great deal in their thinking, but still contrasting beliefs on politics. Munger strikes me as bitingly pragmatic, while Buffett seems to have more heart (a lot of which he seems to credit to his wife 'Susie'). But they continue to work together and get along quite well, which is something that seems rare in the current partisan divide.


What a radical idea. Find common ground and work together on things you can agree on. On other areas, folks might have to agree to disagree!

I was in a job interviewing class and my feedback to a presenter was to "Buffettize" his presentation. He knew exactly what I was talking about and said my comment was brilliant! What I meant by that was to explain things in a way that an ordinary person can understand. Buffett does a good job of making the complex simple, he would have been a great college professor.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Re: Any Buffett fans here?

Post by just frank » Thu Jan 05, 2017 8:21 pm

While his politics are OT, of course, my problem is that the politics of his 'public persona' are the opposite (or perhaps orthogonal) to the politics of his actual investment choices and behavior.

This makes me think the 'persona' that people find appealing is actually just really good PR, and nothing more.

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