Current Stock Market Performance

Have a question about your personal investments? No matter how simple or complex, you can ask it here.
Post Reply
User avatar
Topic Author
fcribbs
Posts: 26
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2016 11:46 am

Current Stock Market Performance

Post by fcribbs » Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:21 pm

I rolled over my pension to a roll-over IRA and followed the guidelines for a 2 fund portfolio. I opened it in July 7th 2016 and it was up close to 5k until recently. Now it's back to where I started in July, losing all of the gains.

SWTSX - Schwab total stock market index
SCHZ - Schwab total Bond - ETF

I do plan to stay the course but wanted to know other peoples thoughts on current stock market returns..

FC
If you mean to do a job, and mean do it really, do it not by halves, but fully, freely..

User avatar
dwickenh
Posts: 1789
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 9:45 pm
Location: Illinois

Re: Current Stock Market Performance

Post by dwickenh » Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:25 pm

Hi fcribbs,

July to now is pretty short term to judge the markets. Even though you may be retired, I assume you have 20-30 years of retirement. these 5 months are only a blip on the investment highway.

I am always happy for a sideways market, as it is always better than a nose dive.

Just my opinion on the current market.

Good luck to you and best wishes,

Dan
The market is the most efficient mechanism anywhere in the world for transferring wealth from impatient people to patient people.” | — Warren Buffett

User avatar
Topic Author
fcribbs
Posts: 26
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2016 11:46 am

Re: Current Stock Market Performance

Post by fcribbs » Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:29 pm

Thanks for the feedback, not retired yet, 7 to 10 years left, using 60/40 as AA..

FC
If you mean to do a job, and mean do it really, do it not by halves, but fully, freely..

User avatar
Taylor Larimore
Advisory Board
Posts: 28942
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:09 pm
Location: Miami FL

Stay the course

Post by Taylor Larimore » Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:29 pm

fcribbs wrote:I rolled over my pension to a roll-over IRA and followed the guidelines for a 2 fund portfolio. I opened it in July 7th 2016 and it was up close to 5k until recently. Now it's back to where I started in July, losing all of the gains.

SWTSX - Schwab total stock market index
SCHZ - Schwab total Bond - ETF

I do plan to stay the course but wanted to know other peoples thoughts on current stock market returns..

FC
FC:

The stock and bond markets are acting normally. They go up and they go down. We get what the market gives.

Fortunately for investors, in the long-run, both the stock and the bond markets have enjoyed positive returns. Stay the course.

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

livesoft
Posts: 69575
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: Current Stock Market Performance

Post by livesoft » Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:30 pm

Current stock market returns seem to be pretty typical to me. Practically every year the stock market will drop 10% or more from a high water mark to a low water mark, then continue on. That's another way of saying that the stock market will fluctuate. I think this year the market has dropped 10% twice already and recovered nicely. Maybe it will do it one or two more times before next year starts.

And just because one "retires", does not mean that the stock market will stop fluctuating. So please get used to it. :)
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

delamer
Posts: 9481
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2011 6:13 pm

Re: Current Stock Market Performance

Post by delamer » Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:33 pm

I don't care about current stock market returns because I am a long-term investor.

I know that it is a little unsettling to see your account balance go up and then down, but that is the nature of the stock and bond markets.

If you find the swings in value very upsetting, then it may be an indication that you should reduce your level of risk by decreasing your allocation to stocks. But that should be a decision for the long-term, not just a reaction to the current conditions.

CoAndy
Posts: 567
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2013 4:45 pm

Re: Current Stock Market Performance

Post by CoAndy » Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:34 pm

The market is drifting a bit. Seems to be searching for direction. I feel your pain though...I was up about 10% as of a couple months ago...now up about 5% YTD. Things might linger like this for a while. Then again, they may not.

User avatar
Topic Author
fcribbs
Posts: 26
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2016 11:46 am

Re: Current Stock Market Performance

Post by fcribbs » Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:47 pm

Thanks for the feedback! I am comfortable with my 60/40 AA and I'm in for the long haul. I just started my journey and I'm glad I ran into the Bogleheads before I jumped in to the sea of investing.

FC
If you mean to do a job, and mean do it really, do it not by halves, but fully, freely..

User avatar
BolderBoy
Posts: 4522
Joined: Wed Apr 07, 2010 12:16 pm
Location: Colorado

Re: Current Stock Market Performance

Post by BolderBoy » Mon Oct 31, 2016 7:54 pm

fcribbs wrote:I do plan to stay the course but wanted to know other peoples thoughts on current stock market returns.
Market return is just one component of "Total Return" so even while the market slides around there are dividends being accrued. Enjoy those while you bide your time...
"Never underestimate one's capacity to overestimate one's abilities" - The Dunning-Kruger Effect

User avatar
patrick013
Posts: 2797
Joined: Mon Jul 13, 2015 7:49 pm

Re: Current Stock Market Performance

Post by patrick013 » Tue Nov 01, 2016 1:37 pm

fcribbs wrote:
SWTSX - Schwab total stock market index
SCHZ - Schwab total Bond - ETF

I do plan to stay the course but wanted to know other peoples thoughts on current stock market returns..
The market portfolio has been trading flat the last year. Very tempting to add
a Dividend Fund to the bond allocation for some hard retirement income. But
even those decline for several years when interest rates rise.

The market portfolio needs to post $100 full EPS before the index price jumps
over $2200 IMO. For every bull there's a bear but lately there's been 2 bulls for
every bear stock analyst.

Defensive stocks have done a good job of holding the market up - plus 14.2%
YTD for the Utility sector. Minus 17.2% for the Financial sector YTD.

Operating Earnings are priced at PE 21.66 and Full EPS are priced at PE 24.52
age in bonds, buy-and-hold, 10 year business cycle

User avatar
Earl Lemongrab
Posts: 7270
Joined: Tue Jun 10, 2014 1:14 am

Re: Current Stock Market Performance

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Tue Nov 01, 2016 3:25 pm

Actually SWTSX is up about 2% on a total return basis over that period. For a four-month period, that's not horrible. It's going to give up another 0.7% or so today though.

There have been periods not that long ago (like early this year) where it went down a fair bit. As the others have said, quit worrying so much. Give up the idea that anyone knows what the market will do in the near future.

Earl

User avatar
Topic Author
fcribbs
Posts: 26
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2016 11:46 am

Re: Current Stock Market Performance

Post by fcribbs » Wed Nov 02, 2016 10:33 am

Thanks for the insight from everyone, I really appreciate it!

FC
If you mean to do a job, and mean do it really, do it not by halves, but fully, freely..

User avatar
Portfolio7
Posts: 695
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2016 3:53 am

Re: Current Stock Market Performance

Post by Portfolio7 » Wed Nov 02, 2016 7:19 pm

When I start worrying about the market, I know I'm losing faith in my portfolio. If you have faith that your portfolio will handle all situations with reasonable dexterity, then the worrying goes away (at least, it does for me.) So, when the worry hits, that's when I revisit my portfolio to understand if I think it has any flaws that need to be addressed. If not, then I've usually given myself a good feeling that I'm on the right path, and my fortitude is recharged. I think if you do this, you generally will come away with further faith in your portfolio strategy (or else you'll have something new, fun and interesting to research.) I recently did exactly that with respect to Cash, and decided to enlist this great group of people for help. I'm very happy with the results.
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin

User avatar
Topic Author
fcribbs
Posts: 26
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2016 11:46 am

Re: Current Stock Market Performance

Post by fcribbs » Thu Nov 10, 2016 10:11 am

Thanks for the wise advice Portfolio7, I appreciate it. I am comfortable with my AA and choices made and look forward to the ride ahead.

FC
If you mean to do a job, and mean do it really, do it not by halves, but fully, freely..

User avatar
ruralavalon
Posts: 17076
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 10:29 am
Location: Illinois

Re: Current Stock Market Performance

Post by ruralavalon » Thu Nov 10, 2016 3:50 pm

fcribbs wrote:I rolled over my pension to a roll-over IRA and followed the guidelines for a 2 fund portfolio. I opened it in July 7th 2016 and it was up close to 5k until recently. Now it's back to where I started in July, losing all of the gains.

SWTSX - Schwab total stock market index
SCHZ - Schwab total Bond - ETF

I do plan to stay the course but wanted to know other peoples thoughts on current stock market returns..

FC
Four months means nothing.

An asset allocation of 60/40 stocks/bonds at 7 -10 years from retirement is pretty mainstream.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

Post Reply