Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

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Hiwatter
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Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by Hiwatter »

Just curious!

thanks
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BolderBoy
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by BolderBoy »

No. Ignore the financial media - they don't know anything more than you (or I) do.
"Never underestimate one's capacity to overestimate one's abilities" - The Dunning-Kruger Effect
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Tycoon
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by Tycoon »

Nope.
Emotionless, prognostication free investing. Ignoring the noise and economists since 1979. Getting rich off of "smart people's" behavioral mistakes.
psychoslowmatic
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by psychoslowmatic »

It really is different this time and everyone should be market timing their entire nest eggs. :oops:
WildBill
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by WildBill »

I got $100 from the ATM this morning!
"Through chances various, through all vicissitudes, we make our way." Virgil, The Aeneid
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cfs
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by cfs »

Welcome aboard!

Welcome aboard to our shipmate Hiwatter. Your first post! Always good to see new shipmates checking in. As far as getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move, NO, not a chance. Continue current course and speed, steady as she goes. Good luck with your investments.

Thanks for reading.
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~
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Toons
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by Toons »

Nada


:)
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee
am
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by am »

A little nervous but doing nothing. Over the last 10 years my hunches and nervousness were mostly wrong. Remember the study about the best investors being the dead ones? :D
livesoft
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by livesoft »

Welcome to the Bogleheads forum.

You seem to be worried enough about this that you registered and figured out how to start a thread on the subject. I'm curious how you found this online forum and how long you have been reading it before you registered and asked your question. I am a student of market psychology and it is posts like yours that the most interesting to me because I use them as a signal to buy more stocks.
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peppers
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by peppers »

Not at all.

However, when my lovely wife, daughter and granddaughter go to the mall, I experience a certain ....foreboding.
"..the cavalry ain't comin' kid, you're on your own..."
Tigermoose
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by Tigermoose »

peppers wrote:Not at all.

However, when my lovely wife, daughter and granddaughter go to the mall, I experience a certain ....foreboding.
LOL
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AlohaJoe
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by AlohaJoe »

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Taylor Larimore
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Hiwatter:

Welcome to the Bogleheads forum.

Bogleheads may become "nervous," but we know that successful investors stay-the-course. This is what experts say:
Frank Armstrong, advisor and author of The Informed Investor: "Endless tinkering is unlikely to improve performance, and chasing last period's stellar achiever is a losing strategy."

Barber Odean Study: "Of 66,465 households with accounts at a large discount broker during 1991 to 1996, those that trade most earn an annual return of 11.4 percent, while the market returns 17.9 percent. Our central message is that trading is hazardous to your health."

William Bernstein, author of Four Pillars of Investing: If you become upset when one of your asset classes does poorly, even when the rest of your portfolio is doing well, then you should not be managing your own money."

Jack Bogle: "Stay the Course. No matter what happens, stick to your program. I've said "Stay the course" a thousand times, and I meant it every time. It is the most important single piece of investment wisdom I can give to you."

Bogleheads Guide to Investing: "Wall Street can't stand buy-and-hold strategies because brokers need trading activity to make money."

Jack Brennan, former Vanguard CEO: "If you're determined to succeed at investing, make it your first priority to become a buy-and-hold investor."

Warren Buffett: "Inactivity strikes us as intelligent behavior."

"Andrew Clarke, author of Wealth of Experience: "Setting a goal, developing an appropriate asset allocation, and selecting a handful of funds are not hugely complex tasks. The hard part comes next: Battling your emotions so that you can stick with your plan through thick and thin."

Jonathan Clements, author and Wall Street Journal columnist: "Take my word on it. Buy-and-hold is still your best long-run strategy."

Phil DeMuth, adviser and co-author of seven investment books: "The investor says to his adviser: 'Every year you tell me to do nothing. What do I need you for?' The adviser replied: 'Every year you need me to keep your from doing anything.' "

Paul Farrell, author of Lazy Persons Guide to Investing: "In a study of 66,400 Merrill Lynch investors, professors Odean and Barber discovered that buy-and-hold investors beat the more active investors by a fairly sizable margin: 18.5% to 11.4% over a six-year period."

Rick Ferri, advisor and financial author: "Write down your strategy -- and stay-the-course."

Steve Forbes: "Everyone is a long-term investor until the market goes down."

Alan Greenspan, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve: "The best strategy for equity investor has always been buy and hold, and forget it."

Mark Hebner, author of "Index Funds": "Prices change to reflect news which is both random and unpredictable. Stock picking and market timing don't work. Stay the course in a risk-appropriate index portfolio and invest and relax."

Morgan Housel, financial columnist: "Do nothing" are the two most powerful -- and underused -- words in investing. The urge to act has transferred an inconceivable amount of wealth from investors to brokers."

Michael LeBoeuf, author of The Millionaire in You: "Simple buy-and-hold index investing is one of the best, most efficient ways to grow your money to the ultimate goal of financial freedom."

Jessie Livermore, famous stock trader: "The big money is not in the buying or the selling, but in the sitting."

Burton Malkiel, author of Random Walk Down Wall Street: "Buying-and-holding a broad-based market index fund is still the only game in town."

Morningstar video: Bad Timing Costs Investors 2.5% Per Year

Bill Schultheis, author of The Coffeehouse Investor: "42% of millionaires of this country make less than one transaction per year in their investments."

Fred Schwed Jr. author of "Where are the Customers' Yachts? "It turns out that I should have just bought them (securities) and thereafter I should have just sat on them like a fat, stupid peasant."

Chandan Sengupta, author of The Only Proven Road to Investment Success: "If you are not going to stick to your chosen investment method through thick and thin, there is almost no chance of your succeeding as an investor."

Dan Solin, financial author and adviser: "Once you understand that monitoring the markets is harmful to your long-term returns, a whole new world of opportunities will await you."

Larry Swedroe, advisor and financial author: "Trading the stock market is a sucker's bet."

Eric Tyson, author of Mutual Funds for Dummies: "Don't trade in and out of funds. Stay invested. Not only does buy-and-hold investing offer better returns, but it's also less work."

Jason Zweig, financial author and Wall Street Journal columnist: "The ultimate benefits of owning stocks accrue only to those who can buy and hold."
Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
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Makaveli
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by Makaveli »

Made my single largest equity purchase today. Many moons before retirement.

Welcome to the rational investors. Stick around here and you'll be alright.
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FreeAtLast
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by FreeAtLast »

peppers wrote:Not at all.

However, when my lovely wife, daughter and granddaughter go to the mall, I experience a certain ....foreboding.
Didn't you confiscate all their credit cards beforehand? :twisted:
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by Jack FFR1846 »

Cash makes me nervous. Now that you remind me, I need to get some of my Ally savings invested in SCHB. Thanks for the reminder.
Bogle: Smart Beta is stupid
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TinkerPDX
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by TinkerPDX »

Always a little nervous; always stick to my plan anyway.
lack_ey
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by lack_ey »

Some level of concern or apprehension is always warranted.

Converting wholesale to cash based on jitters or forecasts is objectively bad strategy* unless you really know what you're doing, well beyond what the pros know. Let's face it—we all don't.

*bad strategies can result in good outcomes; of course the merits have to be judged ex-ante
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Dale_G
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by Dale_G »

When I first began investing the S&P500 was about 180. I am glad I didn't go to cash when the S&P500 was 200 or 300 or 1,000. I am surely not thinking about going to cash just because we are nearing 2,200.

It is time in the market, not timing the market that eventually pays off. Was the market at a "forever high" yesterday? Doubtful.

Dale
Volatility is my friend
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corner559
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by corner559 »

Whatever your investment plan is, stick with it, and stop trying to time the market. It's a losing game.
youdiditr2
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by youdiditr2 »

Alright, you conviced me to move my Roth IRA money earning .0000001 in a Money Market fund to some more Wellington!
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BL
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by BL »

It was a good day for buying.
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EnjoyIt
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by EnjoyIt »

I love it when the media is scaring people getting them to sell. I hope this negative attitude toward the market lasts for another decade.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=79939&start=400#p5275418
Ari
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by Ari »

The only part of the market that seems overvalued is US equities. That's only 20% of my portfolio, so I don't feel especially nervous, no.
All in, all the time.
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Raymond
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by Raymond »

WildBill wrote:I got $100 from the ATM this morning!
Me too!

That's about it for "cash conversions".
"Ritter, Tod und Teufel"
letsgobobby
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by letsgobobby »

Ari wrote:The only part of the market that seems overvalued is US equities. That's only 20% of my portfolio, so I don't feel especially nervous, no.
Bonds seem pretty rich.
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nedsaid
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by nedsaid »

Hiwatter wrote:Just curious!

thanks
Hate to admit it but I am always nervous about the markets.
A fool and his money are good for business.
Ari
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by Ari »

letsgobobby wrote:
Ari wrote:The only part of the market that seems overvalued is US equities. That's only 20% of my portfolio, so I don't feel especially nervous, no.
Bonds seem pretty rich.
I'm 100% stocks, so I'm safe there, too! :beer
All in, all the time.
GoldenFinch
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by GoldenFinch »

If you are nervous about the markets the best thing to do is read more Bogleheads. Reading here will remind you to "stay the course" and "do nothing." If the market is fluctuating downward, which it often does when it is not going upward, you can read the popular "U.S. stocks in freefall" thread for entertainment and reminders, again, to "stick to your plan" and let long term investing work the way it is supposed to. You will also be reminded to buy low, tax loss harvest and possibly rebalance. If you are really nervous about the market in general, there is always the "A tme to EVALUATE your jitters" thread which might encourage you to rethink your risk tolerance and associated asset allocation.

One thing I like to do is look at the historical S&P chart. The trend is up with numerous buy-low opportunities along the way. It is encouraging, even in the worst of times, (which are not now).

Good luck! And stay on that course! :happy
traveltoomuch
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by traveltoomuch »

I took some money out of the market, but it is money targeted for some near-term spending needs (within twelve months), and it will not be reinvested in the market. I justified it by saying "I should have taken that money out as soon as I had added that spending to the budget - the spending commitment changed my ability to take risk with this money."
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munemaker
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by munemaker »

Hiwatter wrote:Just curious!

thanks
Not nervous at all. What makes you nervous?

Seriously, if you are nervous, maybe you need to change your asset allocation to own more bonds and less equities. Being nervous can cause you to do exactly the wrong thing at the wrong time.
Smurf
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by Smurf »

I did. I sold a chunk of investments on Monday. However, based on the advice I received in another thread in 60 days I'll be converting that cash to pool surrounded by a paver patio! Woot woot!
Valuethinker
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by Valuethinker »

Hiwatter wrote:Just curious!

thanks
Long experience.

You will get out. You will be proven right at some point, market will go down.

You will fail to get back in until you have missed a very significant chunk of the upside.

Have made this mistake 3-4x in my life, at least.
2b2
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by 2b2 »

It's a bit like having a toothache and deciding to extract your own tooth.
You'll probably do more harm than good.

2b2
joebh
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by joebh »

"Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?"

No. I see nothing to be nervous about. (And I'm not the nervous type anyway)

Are you converting to cash?
Do you have a plan for when to convert out of cash (besides "when I'm not nervous anymore")?
Runner01
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by Runner01 »

Did you consider moving to cash earlier this year during the mini pullback when the usual doom and gloom prognosticators started prematurely patting themselves on the back? I am glad I didn't as I am currently up nearly 7%.
orca91
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by orca91 »

Nervous, why... because it's Wednesday... because it's August.... because it's 2016?? :happy

OP, what is "short-term" to you and when would you move back from cash? You realize your first post is about market timing on a very anti-market timing forum? :wink:

Stay the course.
Sidney
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by Sidney »

When I retired 9 years ago I set my allocation such that I wouldn't get nervous.
I always wanted to be a procrastinator.
Biffer
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by Biffer »

I would never advocate converting to cash as a short-term move. But if you are getting nervous, I would take a look at whether I was taking too much market risk (e.g., too much in stocks) for my circumstances.
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AstroJohn
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by AstroJohn »

Semi-retired for almost five years now and have yet to modify my plan in response to market conditions.

Now on to the next generation. Last night I helped my 35 year old daughter shift her 401(k) and Roth IRA from way too many mutual funds to a classic age-appropriate three fund portfolio. Also made her promise to leave it alone for at least a year.
Digital Dave
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by Digital Dave »

I'm selling CNBC and buying HGTV.

My AA is 62% equities. I'm 66 and have several years expenses in cash. Any extra dividends are going to Wellesley. A year ago I had 28 fund investments, now I have 20. Next year I'll sell two more funds and add to existing funds. No market timing for me. I'm going with the Flow.

Dave
Investing in Mutual Funds, ETF's, Forever Stamps and Bittulips.
spammagnet
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by spammagnet »

Lots of people, probably. Few of them are Bogleheads.
CWhea1775
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by CWhea1775 »

Yes. Particularly in the bond market. Rates in England are at the lowest they have been in 325 years. U.S. rates also way low historically. When you have that kind of situation, what kind of likelihood is there for significant damage to principal if/when rates ever rise? I have to rebalance after a large real estate transaction and the thought of buying long term bonds at this point in time scares the heck out of me.
HopefulMNSportsFan
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by HopefulMNSportsFan »

Stay the course!
jjface
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by jjface »

Moving some bonds to CDs has been discussed in the past which is reasonable.
Stocks are stocks - stay the course.
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Hiwatter
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by Hiwatter »

Well, I certainly kicked the hornets nest with my first post here!

I'll start by apologizing... I'm genuinely interested in being a contributing member of this forum and learning as much as I can from you fine folks!

That said, I was just wondering if anyone here is a bit nervous about throwing a lot of money at the market right now. I have a decent amount of cash sitting in my 401k (some from a roll over, and some from under-preforming funds that I recently sold off).

My real question is, when should I start buying funds (specifically, a diverse set of Vanguard ETF's)? ... right now when the market is at such a high? In a month? Or, perhaps wait for a big market drop?

I'm in my late 30's, with probably at least 20 more years before retirement. Only debt is my home mortgage.

Thanks all... and again my apologies, I promise to approach my future posts a little more carefully :)
livesoft
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by livesoft »

Did you have this cash on June 27, 2016?
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Sbashore
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Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

Post by Sbashore »

Don't do anything until you have a well thought out plan. Once you have that, what to do is easy......execute the plan and stay the course.
Steve | Semper Fi
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