I have $3,000 to gamble

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TheQuestionGuy
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I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by TheQuestionGuy » Fri Jul 29, 2016 6:47 pm

My Vegas trip was canceled, but still have that gambling itch and placed my gambling allotment of $3,000 into a Roth IRA.

Disclaimer : My actual 401k and Rollover has recently been rebalanced and overly simplified thanks to all who provided feedback. :happy

Although it goes against the philosophy on this board, I want to see how aggressive I can be with a Fund instead of Vegas to generate for some action and see if I can stay ahead of the market. I will be happy to post back in a few months with a status.

I was thinking of jumping on the Fidelity® Select Biotechnology Portfolio (FBIOX) Fund since it hit pretty low this year and hope it leaps back to the top.
Or possibly the Fidelity® Select Retailing Portfolio (FSRPX) Fund as it seems to have a nice track record although it could end up with a year like FBIOX just had.
Or possibly some other obscure Fund that is up and coming that you may have heard about.

Let me know your ideas.

imabeliever
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by imabeliever » Fri Jul 29, 2016 6:53 pm

i'm a personal fan of bio-tech and have posted on a couple of threads as such.

i've listened in on a few webcasts with the FBIOX fund manager and it was pretty interesting. i'd say if you are comfortable with the view of a "gamble" that you have a pretty nice risk/reward play here. if you are able, you can also look at IBB which is essentially the passive index for biotech sector.

still FBIOX is a solid choice and it is an area that having someone who is actually knowledgeable about the companies and challenges facing them, the expense ratio is a pretty reasonable fee. good luck! most "experts" are saying after the election there could be some momentum in the sector. reality is bio tech is a huge potential and it is not the same "boogeyman" as "health care costs" when talking about the US.
yes you can do this!

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David Jay
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by David Jay » Fri Jul 29, 2016 6:53 pm

I say Biotech. I have 3 individual positions in good biotech companies and I agree that the sector is down. It may require holding for 6-12 months.
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future - Niels Bohr | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius

retiredjg
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by retiredjg » Fri Jul 29, 2016 6:59 pm

If you thought you were investing, this would be worrisome. But you called it gambling. Might be a safer bet than anything you would have found in Vegas.

On the other hand….you should not be gambling with money in your Roth IRA. That is precious space that you can never regain. And if you can't fill your Roth IRA with investing money (as opposed to gambling money), I wonder if you actually should be/can afford gambling.

I suggest you actually invest this money. Save up another $3k and gamble with that in a taxable account.

Yes, I realize this answer is somewhat judgemental. Sorry about that. But you did ask for opinions. :(

Feeling like Debbie Downer here….

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whodidntante
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by whodidntante » Fri Jul 29, 2016 7:38 pm

Buy the Wall Street Journal. Spread the stock listings on your wall. Throw a dart. Go all in on that excellent stock pick. I have a better system, but you need to have a cat for it to work.

Jack FFR1846
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Fri Jul 29, 2016 7:47 pm

Some thoughts:

An oil ETF
Some gold 1 ounce Canadian maple leafs
73 tons of coal
A set of wheels with snow tires for all the cars in your house
Bogle: Smart Beta is stupid

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MNGopher
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by MNGopher » Fri Jul 29, 2016 7:48 pm

$1,500 powerball tickets :moneybag

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njboater74
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by njboater74 » Fri Jul 29, 2016 8:14 pm

I've always wanted to try a leveraged ETF. That might be fun if it's truly gambling money.

I have to join the debbie downer crowd though. This is your Roth IRA - precious space you don't want to waste. Better to gamble in taxable.
When the mob and the press and the whole world tell you to move, your job is to plant yourself like a tree beside the river of truth and tell the whole world - 'No, YOU move'--Captain America, Boglehead

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badbreath
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by badbreath » Fri Jul 29, 2016 8:18 pm

I would do VGHCX VG health care a bit more conservative but still has a lot of Bio
“While money can’t buy happiness, it certainly lets you choose your own form of misery.” Groucho Marx

CppCoder
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by CppCoder » Fri Jul 29, 2016 8:20 pm

$1,500 powerball tickets 
Or just send me the $3,000 and I'll send $0 back. Statistically, it's the same expected value for that "investment" :twisted: . (Okay, okay, those aren't the exact odds, but it's been a long week, and I'm not up for the actual calculation.)

imabeliever
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by imabeliever » Fri Jul 29, 2016 8:32 pm

Jeez...this is the danger of a "boglehead" forum... first off, $3K is "investing" in buying bio tech. FBIOX is made up of some very sound companies who earn money, which means you have a very good chance of making money on your investment. The only gamble is, when will they rise and will you miss out on growth in other areas. but i'll assume that this $3k is not your financial future and you will sleep well at night watching it rise and fall on a daily basis, because bio tech is wildly volatile.

that said - it can make a lot of money for you and i'll take the odds in FBIOX over the odds in any Vegas casino... :) :sharebeer
yes you can do this!

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TheQuestionGuy
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by TheQuestionGuy » Fri Jul 29, 2016 9:21 pm

David Jay wrote: It may require holding for 6-12 months.
No problem. I am in no rush. :mrgreen:
Feeling like Debbie Downer here….
Hey, I asked for all opinions and just to clarify, this is the money I would have taken to Vegas but instead transferred it into a Roth IRA and not money that currently existed there. Still, nice to see people watching out for others and expressing caution.
MNGopher wrote:$1,500 powerball tickets :moneybag
Even I know taking the money to Vegas has much better odds than this.
imabeliever wrote:that said - it can make a lot of money for you and i'll take the odds in FBIOX over the odds in any Vegas casino... :) :sharebeer
Ah, someone who understands my thinking. Must be new and not a complete boglehead convert. :D

Thanks for everyones feedback. Will be doing some more research this weekend.

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Raymond
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by Raymond » Fri Jul 29, 2016 9:29 pm

retiredjg wrote:...I suggest you actually invest this money. Save up another $3k and gamble with that in a taxable account...
Because if the gamble/investment goes bad, at least you can get a capital loss out of it, whereas in a Roth IRA you get zilch
(unless you close *all* your Roth IRA accounts).
"Ritter, Tod und Teufel"

moneywise3
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by moneywise3 » Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:42 am

I am doubling the money in 60 days. Look for the address to mail the check in your inbox.

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Bogle_Feet
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by Bogle_Feet » Sat Jul 30, 2016 2:39 am

I was going to say Biotech too. If you're looking to reduce volatility then go with a biotech ETF.

oliveoiltycoon
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by oliveoiltycoon » Sat Jul 30, 2016 3:31 am

Gamble you say? Start selling short term, near-the-money puts on the S&P 500. Hard to wipe out completely so you should be able to enjoy this for a while.

donfairplay
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by donfairplay » Sat Jul 30, 2016 4:23 am

For the many biotech respondents, and a few 3x levered ETF respondents, I present to you the all-in-one Roth IRA gambling solution:

LABU - Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X Shares

You get the best of both biotech and 3x levered shares. How they lever them without futures? Dunno. But it says 3x in the name of the fund, what could possibly go wrong?

Sure the expense ratio is twice that of IBB (ishares biotech etf). And it lost 78% of its value from one year ago. Ignore that four for one reverse split.

If you invest in the Roth and keep it over a long time horizon, then you get all the benefits of mathematically proven decay (ignore the word 'daily' in the title of the etf); the high ER; and no dividends (although IBB has like a 0.14% yield, honestly its not much of a difference).

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4nursebee
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by 4nursebee » Sat Jul 30, 2016 5:03 am

Novavax, symbol NVAX.

Hold on for an emotional ride. It had me at the top of the 2015 BH hedge fund contest for a good part of the year and at the bottom of the 2016 contest for a good part of the year.

Earnings soon. Not important
Phase 3 clinical trial data for elderly RSV vaccine expected this quarter, I expect before earnings.
They are in partnership discussions with large pharma for outside of US marketing. At the last shareholder meeting they suggested that more of this would be made public after P3 data comes out (they said they would likely talk more about this this quarter also).

Ongoing many other trials including a P3 pregnant mother RSV vaccine...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_res ... tial_virus
4nursebee

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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by Shallowpockets » Sat Jul 30, 2016 12:31 pm

$3000 is nothing. Not even hardly worth it. You could just as well do a paper trade. If you doubled your money you have $6000.
Risk aversion on this should take precedence, because it is HIGHLY unlikely you will get 100% return.

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Toons
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by Toons » Sat Jul 30, 2016 12:40 pm

Gold
:shock:
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

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bottlecap
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by bottlecap » Sat Jul 30, 2016 12:44 pm

If you are going to gamble, why would you want someone else to decide what you're going to gamble on?

It's money you plan to lose with, do whatever you wish.

JT

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Taylor Larimore
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by Taylor Larimore » Sat Jul 30, 2016 12:57 pm

TheQuestionGuy:

If you want to gamble in stocks, listen to this:

https://secure2.thestreet.com/cap/prm.d ... 1469900530

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by TomatoTomahto » Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:24 pm

TheQuestionGuy wrote:
MNGopher wrote:1,500 powerball tickets :moneybag
Even I know taking the money to Vegas has much better odds than this.
Not really. You'll probably have $0 returning from Vegas, but a few hundred dollars from the 2 number matching, 3 number matching partial prizes. Just don't "re-bet" the partial prizes, and you'll be ahead of the game.

In the lottery, as in Vegas, the danger is in not walking away.
Okay, I get it; I won't be political or controversial. The Earth is flat.

Nearly A Moose
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by Nearly A Moose » Sat Jul 30, 2016 2:05 pm

You seem to have resolved to do this with your IRA, but why not invest that $3k according to your investing plan, then find $3k in taxable to gamble with? That way, you can take a capital loss on your taxes if the gamble doesn't pay off.
Pardon typos, I'm probably using my fat thumbs on a tiny phone.

BogleBoogie
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by BogleBoogie » Sat Jul 30, 2016 3:54 pm

I would buy lotto tickets. You'll either be set for life or where you would have been after a weekend in Vegas.

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desertbandit442
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by desertbandit442 » Sat Jul 30, 2016 4:38 pm

I was in the same boat about 5 years ago, but had $2,000 to gamble. Ended up not going to Vegas, so with my "mad money" I opened up a Scottrade account in April 2011. Before anyone says anything, all my other investments are in two Vanguard index funds. I split the $2,000 between two stocks and have added nothing (other than dividends reinvested) or taken out anything, just let it ride. Just this Friday the account went over $4,000. I know, almost as boring as index funds, but that was my gamble. Going to let ride another 5 years. But, my wife is bugging me for a hot tub so I might have to close out the account early.

retiredjg
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by retiredjg » Sat Jul 30, 2016 5:19 pm

desertbandit442 wrote:But, my wife is bugging me for a hot tub so I might have to close out the account early.
A hot tub is worth a lot more than $4k in a gambling account in my opinion. No brainer. :D :D :D

But $4k won't buy a new hot tub of any quality. There could be many very nice used ones available, especially from people who are moving. $4k could go a long way there if you have the time to wait and shop.

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Petrocelli
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by Petrocelli » Sat Jul 30, 2016 5:51 pm

Get a Rolex
Petrocelli (not the real Rico, but just a fan)

retiredjg
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by retiredjg » Sat Jul 30, 2016 6:01 pm

What on earth are you thinking?

A Rolex is a guy thing. A hot tub is a couple's thing. :shock:

OnTrack
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by OnTrack » Sat Jul 30, 2016 8:07 pm

TomatoTomahto wrote:
TheQuestionGuy wrote:
MNGopher wrote:1,500 powerball tickets :moneybag
Even I know taking the money to Vegas has much better odds than this.
Not really. You'll probably have $0 returning from Vegas, but a few hundred dollars from the 2 number matching, 3 number matching partial prizes. Just don't "re-bet" the partial prizes, and you'll be ahead of the game.

In the lottery, as in Vegas, the danger is in not walking away.
If it weren't for travel expense and time, I would favor Vegas over Powerball. I think the expected value is better in Vegas. For example the expected value on a single number roulette spin on a $2 bet is $1.894. It seems determining the expected value of a $2 powerball ticket is complicated because it varies base on the size of the jackpot and the number of tickets in play, but one estimate is $1.0043 (http://www.durangobill.com/PowerballOdds.html). If you discount the possibility of winning prizes $50,000 or higher, then the expected value is $0.1796. Also, the concept of not re-betting prizes can be applied in Vegas as well as Powerball. On the other hand, if what you want is the near zero chance of winning a very large payout regardless of expected value, then powerball has the advantage.

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Petrocelli
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by Petrocelli » Sun Jul 31, 2016 8:28 am

retiredjg wrote:What on earth are you thinking?

A Rolex is a guy thing. A hot tub is a couple's thing. :shock:
Unless you get the Rolex for your spouse, then it's a couples thing. :wink:
Petrocelli (not the real Rico, but just a fan)

joebh
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by joebh » Sun Jul 31, 2016 8:49 am

"I have $3,000 to gamble"

Lottery tickets.

Soli
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by Soli » Sun Jul 31, 2016 3:53 pm

Happy wife, happy life, but investing in a silver ETF like SIL may give you the gambling excitement you crave. Does a roller coaster ride appeal to you (smile)?

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BolderBoy
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by BolderBoy » Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:41 pm

TheQuestionGuy wrote:Or possibly some other obscure Fund that is up and coming that you may have heard about.
I got hosed pretty good by the Rydex funds. They have fund offerings that allow "doubling down", if you will, where you can take a 2x bet against a sector going up or down and even bet for or against the Dow itself. They allow frequent trading and charge you handsomely for the ability to do so. That seems like gambling to me.

With a bit of luck, you can see your $3k disappear (or not) in short order.
"Never underestimate one's capacity to overestimate one's abilities" - The Dunning-Kruger Effect

malabargold
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by malabargold » Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:53 pm

EWI
Italian index.


TBT.
Ultrashort treasuries


I dumped play money into those - not so hot so far.


RING. Gold miners. This one did well. Big run already since last year. Probably not for now.


But.

If you are anywhere close to a margin of error for
a comfortable retirement, stick to SPY, etc
Last edited by malabargold on Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Nearly A Moose
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by Nearly A Moose » Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:01 pm

Is there some actively managed strategy that intrigues you? If so, see if you can find a fund that executes that strategy that you can get into for $1500. Then put 1500 into that fund, and 1500 into a target date vanguard fund. Then watch how they perform in the next crash and recovery.
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tbradnc
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by tbradnc » Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:29 pm

Here is what to do.

Each morning see if crude is up or down and look at the premarket pricing for related companies (XOM, COP, etc.). If it looks like a down day for crude, place an order for ERY. If it looks like a good day for crude place an order for ERX.

No matter what happens, close the position by the end of that trading day. This is important.

I did this for a while on paper and made more than I lost. I just don't have the trader gene...

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buccimane
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by buccimane » Mon Aug 01, 2016 8:36 am

whodidntante wrote:Buy the Wall Street Journal. Spread the stock listings on your wall. Throw a dart. Go all in on that excellent stock pick. I have a better system, but you need to have a cat for it to work.
The John Oliver cat :oops: :D :D
A man convinced against his will is of the same opinion still

Engineer250
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by Engineer250 » Mon Aug 01, 2016 10:02 am

tbradnc wrote: I did this for a while on paper and made more than I lost. I just don't have the trader gene...
Occasionally I make spreadsheet portfolios to scratch the timing itch, eager to see how I'll do over time. I usually lose interest after a couple weeks and forget to check my spreadsheet. Maybe that is because it isn't real money, or maybe I'm just an index investor at heart.

That said I wouldn't put my play money in my Roth, but have no objections to a small amount of money to scratch the itch elsewhere.
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.

inbox788
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by inbox788 » Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:23 am

TheQuestionGuy wrote:
David Jay wrote: It may require holding for 6-12 months.
No problem. I am in no rush. :mrgreen:
Some questions. What do you play in Vegas? Why? What's exciting gambling for you? Gambling and waiting for 6-12 months just isn't much action. And if you're looking at particular mutual funds/ETFs during those periods, that's mostly investing in higher risk equities.

If you want to gamble, you should be looking for actionable advantage. We're mostly done with earnings seasons, but it would have been a good gamble to be long most tech stocks (GOOGL, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, FB, etc.).
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1m& ... &c=%5EGSPC

And biotech beat them all last month, but if you're really trying to gamble, you should pick your poison. You should try to pick out BIIB, REGN, or ILMN as the winners beating the index.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=IBB ... LXN%2CINCY

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3wood
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by 3wood » Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:39 pm

If you want an attempt at life changing money read the book 100 Baggers. Go find the next google or Netflix and come here to brag about it. :D

PandaBear
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by PandaBear » Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:43 pm

Buy fertilizer mutual funds. Or if you really are feeling the itch to gamble, buy individual stocks in video game companies. Or you could always just buy 1500 powerball tickets...

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nisiprius
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by nisiprius » Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:50 pm

Draw up a little chart for yourself in which you estimate, in some way, as best you can, the amount of pleasure you would get from gambling $3,000 at the casino, in the stock market, and in some other way not involving gambling.

Important: make two columns, in which you estimate both the pleasure of winning and the negative pleasure of losing. That is, take very seriously the possibility of losing, not just the possibility of winning.

Also... because this is something people don't seem to talk about enough when they talk about "fun money..." set down, in writing, your plan for what you do when the bet is over. Again, plan for both a win and a loss, although my personal concern is with the loss side. Be sure that you have a written answer about what you do when you lose. Do you then stop gambling... for life? Do you wait a while for the pain to fade to accumulate a fresh $3,000 and gamble again? Do you borrow money in order to make a bet big enough to recoup your losses and then some?
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

inbox788
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by inbox788 » Tue Aug 02, 2016 3:04 pm

inbox788 wrote:And biotech beat them all last month, but if you're really trying to gamble, you should pick your poison. You should try to pick out BIIB, REGN, or ILMN as the winners beating the index.
Did you pick BIIB today? You would have made almost $300 vs almost nothing with IBB. In fact if not for BIIB big performance today, your biotech index would be down! BTW, REGN was a wash and ILMN was a bit of a loser today.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BII ... &q=l&c=IBB

Can you make these bets? Pick the winners? Can you stomach these and bigger swings? Now that's gambling! And tomorrow is a new game.
Last edited by inbox788 on Tue Aug 02, 2016 3:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.

gks
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by gks » Tue Aug 02, 2016 3:05 pm

TQG,

I am neither the most affluent nor savviest investor on this blog (check livesoft's review of my investing (non) skill). You are wondering about a $3k "investment", but after saving/investing for 30 years, that is almost a daily variation for my investments. Put the $3k somewhere it will compound for however long you will be investing for retirement and let it ride. We don't know your financial status, but $3k is close to chump change.

Your Fidelity choices are interesting, but will they continue in the future?

Your last question about an obscure fund is interesting. Most obscure funds tend to end up liquidating after x amount of years, mostly because of poor performance. You seem to be looking for a "get rich quick" scheme which usually rewards those who promote those schemes.

Don't know what to tell you, but I think you may be on the wrong forum for your question.

Greg

donfairplay
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by donfairplay » Thu Sep 15, 2016 10:59 pm

4nursebee wrote:Novavax, symbol NVAX.

Hold on for an emotional ride. It had me at the top of the 2015 BH hedge fund contest for a good part of the year and at the bottom of the 2016 contest for a good part of the year.

Earnings soon. Not important
Phase 3 clinical trial data for elderly RSV vaccine expected this quarter, I expect before earnings.
They are in partnership discussions with large pharma for outside of US marketing. At the last shareholder meeting they suggested that more of this would be made public after P3 data comes out (they said they would likely talk more about this this quarter also).

Ongoing many other trials including a P3 pregnant mother RSV vaccine...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_res ... tial_virus
I thought this was a good investment too, invested a little.

NVAX is down more than 80% in after-hours trading today.

Nowhere to go but up!

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oldcomputerguy
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by oldcomputerguy » Fri Sep 16, 2016 4:47 am

If you really feel the itch to gamble, put half of it in small-cap value and half in emerging-market bonds.
:moneybag :greedy

Or you could just put it all in randomly-selected penny stocks.... :twisted:
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Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by Selu Gadu » Fri Sep 16, 2016 7:52 am

CppCoder wrote:
$1,500 powerball tickets 
Or just send me the $3,000 and I'll send $0 back. Statistically, it's the same expected value for that "investment" :twisted: . (Okay, okay, those aren't the exact odds, but it's been a long week, and I'm not up for the actual calculation.)
+1 Send me the $3K and I will send $1 back. Ya gotta take the better deal! :moneybag
De Gustibus Non Disputandum Est. Quantum Mechanics can't be all that tough, after all it isn't rocket science!

Big Dutch
Posts: 83
Joined: Thu May 28, 2015 3:18 pm

Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by Big Dutch » Fri Sep 16, 2016 7:56 am

whodidntante wrote:Buy the Wall Street Journal. Spread the stock listings on your wall. Throw a dart. Go all in on that excellent stock pick. I have a better system, but you need to have a cat for it to work.
LOL :happy

Theoretical
Posts: 1476
Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2014 10:09 pm

Re: I have $3,000 to gamble

Post by Theoretical » Fri Sep 16, 2016 8:50 am

Are there any companies that you really respect or really detest?

You could buy shares in 2-3 companies and become an advocate or activist. Heck, look for a company whose annual meeting is in your city or in easy reach within the region. It gives you something tangible and rewarding beyond the performance.

Emerging value (PXH/FNDE) is still cheap despite being up 25% for the year. That's how depressed EM has gotten.

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