Stock Quesiton: AAPL or FB?

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BigBevo
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Stock Quesiton: AAPL or FB?

Post by BigBevo » Tue May 10, 2016 1:46 pm

I have been a "Boglehead" for several years and have 99% of my assets at Vanguard in a nicely diverside portfolio for my goals. I posted here for review for feedback of that portfolio a few months ago and am set for my retirement goals in that account. Flagship member and they have done a good job with my assets there.

I have a "play" account where I pick and hold long term stocks. I have always enjoyed researching and putting money into companies that I feel will grow for the long haul. I have had AAPL since 1998. I grabbed some FB on their IPO day as well.

Holdings in this account:

AAPL 70%
FB 10%
DIS 10%
SBUX 5%
GOOG 5%

I have held all of these positions for at least five years.

I have been thinking about moving some of my AAPL stock into FB. I feel like long term for an individual stock, we haven't yet begin to see the cash registers Zuckerberg and team are lining up to catch the money that is going to come in.

Does anyone have a long term opinion on AAPL versus FB?

This may be the wrong forum for this question and apologize in advance if it is.

traveler90
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Re: Stock Quesiton: AAPL or FB?

Post by traveler90 » Tue May 10, 2016 1:49 pm

How much are the capital gains on your AAPL stock? Would it be a big tax burden?

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InvestorNewb
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Re: Stock Quesiton: AAPL or FB?

Post by InvestorNewb » Tue May 10, 2016 1:57 pm

I would take Apple over FB since we all know what happened to MySpace. With that said, I'm happy I don't own 1 individual stock since there are so many great companies.
My Portfolio: VTI [US], VXUS [Int'l], VNQ [REIT], VCN [Canada] (largest to smallest)

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aj76er
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Re: Stock Quesiton: AAPL or FB?

Post by aj76er » Tue May 10, 2016 2:06 pm

For future long term growth, I actually like Google the best of those companies (over FB and APPL).
I'm constantly amazed at the products that come out of Google - not because they are flashy and marketed at the masses, but because they work and are easy to use. And they integrate seamlessly into peoples lives. Google drive, mail, calendar, maps, android, and now google fi all work together perfectly and run on one of the best cloud infrastructures out there.
And I say all this as a long time apple user :)
"Buy-and-hold, long-term, all-market-index strategies, implemented at rock-bottom cost, are the surest of all routes to the accumulation of wealth" - John C. Bogle

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David Jay
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Re: Stock Quesiton: AAPL or FB?

Post by David Jay » Tue May 10, 2016 2:33 pm

I'd take some profits from Apple. Smartphone market is saturating and there is no Steve Jobs for "the next big thing".
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future - Niels Bohr | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius

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BigBevo
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Re: Stock Quesiton: AAPL or FB?

Post by BigBevo » Tue May 10, 2016 4:05 pm

traveler90 wrote:How much are the capital gains on your AAPL stock? Would it be a big tax burden?
Good question. Don't believe it will be too big of an issue. Was really curious on persepective of these companies from some of the bogleheads here and glad to see some coming in. Thanks for the great question!

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BigBevo
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Re: Stock Quesiton: AAPL or FB?

Post by BigBevo » Tue May 10, 2016 4:07 pm

InvestorNewb wrote:I would take Apple over FB since we all know what happened to MySpace. With that said, I'm happy I don't own 1 individual stock since there are so many great companies.
I watched MySpace also...but FB has gotten deep into personal lives and content and I find it difficult to "unwind" and move to another platform when the time invested for many has been huge. With that being said...you never know! :)

ourbrooks
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Re: Stock Quesiton: AAPL or FB?

Post by ourbrooks » Tue May 10, 2016 4:36 pm

I'm surprised that AMZN isn't on your list. Unbeknownst to most people who order stuff through them, they are the largest Cloud services company; Apple's Cloud services are mostly Amazon! What they're doing with warehousing/delivery services is also impressive and, really, still in the early stages. Perhaps, they'll move into all of the old Best Buy stores and deliver what Best Buy should have done, a completely integrated Internet/bricks-and-mortar shopping experience in which you can look at something in the store and have it delivered to your house before you arrive back home.

For something completely different, I'm impressed with the reinvention of General Electric. In these days of services and consumer electronics as the hot areas, they're going back to old fashioned industrial manufacturing. They're now number 3 or 4 in wind turbines and they have more than a 50% share in the world market for gas turbine generators, not counting the share acquired through the Alstom acquisition. They also manufacture molten salt storage solar systems.

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whodidntante
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Re: Stock Quesiton: AAPL or FB?

Post by whodidntante » Tue May 10, 2016 5:35 pm

I don't like Apple as a business. They no longer have a plausible growth strategy and their core business is eroding. They have a mountain of cash but don't seem to be able to invest that for growth. Their engineering culture stinks of not invented here and they will have trouble realizing benefits from acquisitions. I don't think it's possible their stock will outperform the market without a disruptive innovation.

TonyDAntonio
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Re: Stock Quesiton: AAPL or FB?

Post by TonyDAntonio » Tue May 10, 2016 7:13 pm

Just to be a bit of a stinker...and Warren Buffet chose IBM over all of these 'tech' stocks. :shock:

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Toons
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Re: Stock Quesiton: AAPL or FB?

Post by Toons » Tue May 10, 2016 7:40 pm

Amazon :happy
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

Topic Author
BigBevo
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Re: Stock Quesiton: AAPL or FB?

Post by BigBevo » Mon May 16, 2016 1:59 pm

Well...I am going to keep the AAPL position intact. A vote/buy from Berkshire didn't do anything to sway this. ;)

goldendad
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Re: Stock Quesiton: AAPL or FB?

Post by goldendad » Mon May 16, 2016 2:18 pm

I own AAPL and FB. Plan to hold both. If I had to pick one I would keep FB.

amphora
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Re: Stock Quesiton: AAPL or FB?

Post by amphora » Mon May 16, 2016 2:53 pm

I like AAPL. They have expertise in hardware and software as well as a cash hoard to buy almost anything if they want to enter a new market. Apple is also somewhat of a "value play" with a P/E ratio of 10 because of declining iPhone sales compared to a P/E ratio of 30 for Alphabet (Google) and over 72 for Facebook. Of course Google and Facebook are growing faster but who knows if that will continue. The question for Google and Facebook is how profitable they can be outside their core competencies.

I also wonder if Google and Facebook are more vulnerable because they make nearly all their money from online advertising, which seems to be declining in the amount it pays per click. Apple meanwhile sells products directly to consumers which seems a more solid business, though consumer tastes can change.

Of course with AAPL and GOOG each worth ~ $500,000,000,000, it's harder to achieve astronomical growth.

jayjayc
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Re: Stock Quesiton: AAPL or FB?

Post by jayjayc » Mon May 16, 2016 3:56 pm

ourbrooks wrote:I'm surprised that AMZN isn't on your list. Unbeknownst to most people who order stuff through them, they are the largest Cloud services company; Apple's Cloud services are mostly Amazon!
Indeed, Amazon's cloud service is a monster. Even more impressive, Amazon is the cloud provider for all of Netflix' streaming videos.

sk.dolcevita
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Re: Stock Quesiton: AAPL or FB?

Post by sk.dolcevita » Mon May 16, 2016 4:04 pm

InvestorNewb wrote:I would take Apple over FB since we all know what happened to MySpace. With that said, I'm happy I don't own 1 individual stock since there are so many great companies.
Hmmm, are we forgetting Motorola, Nokia and RIM (Blackberry)?

Smartphones are like (or perhaps indeed are) a fashion accessory - a missed trend can bring pain very fast. Having said that Apple has somewhat insulated itself by building a services ecosystem. However, contrary to conventional wisdom barriers to substitution are not insurmountable. Most people can switch either to Android or other best-of-breed services with only a limited pain.

My vote is for FB. But AMZN and GOOG can be long term core holdings as well.

petiejoe
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Re: Stock Quesiton: AAPL or FB?

Post by petiejoe » Mon May 16, 2016 5:13 pm

BigBevo wrote:
InvestorNewb wrote:I would take Apple over FB since we all know what happened to MySpace. With that said, I'm happy I don't own 1 individual stock since there are so many great companies.
I watched MySpace also...but FB has gotten deep into personal lives and content and I find it difficult to "unwind" and move to another platform when the time invested for many has been huge. With that being said...you never know! :)
Facebook has invested a lot into trying to make themselves sticky with casual game platforms and whatnot, but ultimately their biggest asset right now is the size of their network ("everybody" is on Facebook). I don't think Facebook will have any kind of catastrophic meltdown, but I do think they'll go out with a whimper. Twenty years from now, there will be a report on page 5 of the New York Times that Facebook sold off the last of their assets and closed up shop. Nobody will care beyond a little "Hey, remember that site we wasted time on back then."

Maybe they'll surprise me. They do have an awful lot of smart people working there, so maybe they'll manage to pivot and create something meaningful that doesn't count on people being faithful to them just because their friends are. I think there are enough other companies that have shown that they're capable of big new things (Google or Amazon are the easy ones for direct comparison) that I wouldn't bet any big money on Facebook's ability to maybe redefine themselves before it's too late. As others love to say on this site, I'll just own all of them and win either way.

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njboater74
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Re: Stock Quesiton: AAPL or FB?

Post by njboater74 » Mon May 16, 2016 7:11 pm

Have to love Disney. Marvel is churning out blockbusters with regularity and shows no signs of letting up and their Pixar and Disney Animation Studios are good for at least one ~1B film per year. All of which complement their theme park and merchandising business.

If there was one main point of concern about them, I would say it would be ESPN since there are so many online options to get scores and highlights. I could see them getting squeezed by the cable companies who are tired of paying them large fees.

But since the question was AAPL or FB...I'd say AAPL. It may be hard to foresee how FB would get taken down, but this type of disruption does happen in Silicon Valley and it is likely they'll see some pressure as a new generation of online users looks to a social media site that doesn't have their moms and dads on it.

AAPL, on the other hand, has had a unique ability to step in as a 2nd or 3rd mover in a market and become the leader. (the iPhone came out years after BlackBerry and a host of other smartphones)
When the mob and the press and the whole world tell you to move, your job is to plant yourself like a tree beside the river of truth and tell the whole world - 'No, YOU move'--Captain America, Boglehead

ourbrooks
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Re: Stock Quesiton: AAPL or FB?

Post by ourbrooks » Mon May 16, 2016 8:30 pm

Anybody remember Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC)? How about Compaq?
Of course, everyone agreed that Adobe would go out of business after Microsoft announced TrueType.
Remember when Nokia was far ahead of everyone else when it came to cell phones?

Predicting the future of technology companies is hard work.

leonard
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Re: Stock Quesiton: AAPL or FB?

Post by leonard » Mon May 16, 2016 9:17 pm

I'd suggest not spending 99% of your effort on 1% of your portfolio. Sell it out in a tax efficient manner, then reinvest in your low cost, indexed portfolio.
Leonard | | Market Timing: Do you seriously think you can predict the future? What else do the voices tell you? | | If employees weren't taking jobs with bad 401k's, bad 401k's wouldn't exist.

madbrain
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Re: Stock Quesiton: AAPL or FB?

Post by madbrain » Mon May 16, 2016 11:00 pm

You are asking this in the wrong forum.

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timboktoo
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Re: Stock Quesiton: AAPL or FB?

Post by timboktoo » Mon May 16, 2016 11:03 pm

I have no idea, but I am ever curious to see what the future has in store :)

- Tim

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