Bought a bunch of stocks today

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SpartanBull
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Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by SpartanBull »

Hi guys,
Prior to the closing bell today, I added about 50k to my 100% equities to my portfolio, just 2/3 VTSAX and 1/3 VTIAX, simple as that. For whats its worth this was about a 25% addition to my portfolio. I had been DCA'ing before, but seeing how low things have gotten, I couldn't help myself. Does that make me a market timer? I wont be selling a stock for a very long time (I'm only 24), so I guess in the meantime its just buy buy buy. Hopefully I'm not trying to catch a falling knife :sharebeer
livesoft
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by livesoft »

Only the future will tell for sure. Market Timers always lose money*, so if this makes you money, then you cannot possibly be a Market Timer.



*I learned that on this forum.
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surfstar
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by surfstar »

Congrats! My next paycheck contribution goes in Thu, so I'm sure the market will rise before then :oops:
Fallible
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by Fallible »

SpartanBull wrote:Hi guys,
Prior to the closing bell today, I added about 50k to my 100% equities to my portfolio, just 2/3 VTSAX and 1/3 VTIAX, simple as that. For whats its worth this was about a 25% addition to my portfolio. I had been DCA'ing before, but seeing how low things have gotten, I couldn't help myself. Does that make me a market timer? I wont be selling a stock for a very long time (I'm only 24), so I guess in the meantime its just buy buy buy. Hopefully I'm not trying to catch a falling knife :sharebeer
So, you bought because of how you feel the market is doing, in this case "low" (and somewhere in there must be another feeling it won't go lower, or too much lower before it bottoms out, or might now go higher). And you're asking us if you just timed the market? The real question is whether youl'll now be lucky - or not.
Last edited by Fallible on Mon Jan 25, 2016 5:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
Laundry_Service
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by Laundry_Service »

You did better than buying a couple of months ago.
renue74
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by renue74 »

You bought at spring 2014 prices.

https://www.google.com/finance?cid=626307

I'm not saying that's good or bad, I'm just saying. I don't have a crystal ball either or I wouldn't still be at work at 6:35pm.
TomCat96
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by TomCat96 »

livesoft wrote:Only the future will tell for sure. Market Timers always lose money*, so if this makes you money, then you cannot possibly be a Market Timer.



*I learned that on this forum.
This got a great laugh out of me.

People push the market timing thing way too far on this forum. Another way to say it is, if you leave your investment to random chance, you will do better than if you use your brain in the slightest possible way.

The better way of looking at it is if you market time, you can expect to do no better than random chance.
flyingaway
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by flyingaway »

Doing this occasionally is not market timing, IMO, unless you will sell the stocks at some time you think the price is high. On the other hand, market timing is not a crime.
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Svensk Anga
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by Svensk Anga »

This thread is a Rorschach test. To some, the OP is guilty of the sin of market timing. To others (me), the OP embraced the findings of the finance literature and abandoned the inferior DCA strategy for a lump sum investment.
livesoft
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by livesoft »

Svensk Anga wrote:This thread is a Rorschach test. To some, the OP is guilty of the sin of market timing. To others (me), the OP embraced the findings of the finance literature and abandoned the inferior DCA strategy for a lump sum investment.
And to me, they did better than the Lump Sum strategy because they were DCAing until some better prices came along.
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letsgobobby
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by letsgobobby »

SpartanBull wrote:Hi guys,
Prior to the closing bell today, I added about 50k to my 100% equities to my portfolio, just 2/3 VTSAX and 1/3 VTIAX, simple as that. For whats its worth this was about a 25% addition to my portfolio. I had been DCA'ing before, but seeing how low things have gotten, I couldn't help myself. Does that make me a market timer? I wont be selling a stock for a very long time (I'm only 24), so I guess in the meantime its just buy buy buy. Hopefully I'm not trying to catch a falling knife :sharebeer
Translation:

"I had an 80/20 portfolio and today I decided to make it 100/0."

We'll let you know next year how your timing worked out.
GoldenFinch
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by GoldenFinch »

If you're 24 years old and can buy 50K worth of index funds on a down day, I think you are doing A-OKAY.

Keep saving and good for you. :beer

(And remember to stay the course.)
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joe8d
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by joe8d »

:thumbsup
All the Best, | Joe
ImaBeginner
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by ImaBeginner »

I get the sense that the best boglehead answer is:

There is a downturn?
ge1
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by ge1 »

Given you are 100% in equities, where did the 50k come from?
Fallible
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by Fallible »

It's interesting that often when people time the market, they say they didn't, or weren't trying to, of ask if they did. Market timing's not hard to understand, so why not just say they took a guess, timed the market, and now hope to get lucky?
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
Topic Author
SpartanBull
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by SpartanBull »

ge1 wrote:Given you are 100% in equities, where did the 50k come from?
The short version is that I closed a lucrative deal at work and had a nice influx of cash. Previously, in this event I would have still just made my regular contribution--changing nothing about my routine contributions. However I do suppose the "correct" thing to do, whether the market is down/up/sideways/anything, is to be fully invested at all times.
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SpartanBull
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by SpartanBull »

Fallible wrote:
SpartanBull wrote:Hi guys,
Prior to the closing bell today, I added about 50k to my 100% equities to my portfolio, just 2/3 VTSAX and 1/3 VTIAX, simple as that. For whats its worth this was about a 25% addition to my portfolio. I had been DCA'ing before, but seeing how low things have gotten, I couldn't help myself. Does that make me a market timer? I wont be selling a stock for a very long time (I'm only 24), so I guess in the meantime its just buy buy buy. Hopefully I'm not trying to catch a falling knife :sharebeer
So, you bought because of how you feel the market is doing, in this case "low" (and somewhere in there must be another feeling it won't go lower, or too much lower before it bottoms out, or might now go higher). And you're asking us if you just timed the market? The real question is whether youl'll now be lucky - or not.
This may be a justification, but on some level as long as I have ZERO intention to sell for the next 30 years or so...AKA I'm not buying/selling, just keeping an eye on when I buy, I suppose.
jackholloway
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by jackholloway »

letsgobobby wrote:
SpartanBull wrote:Hi guys,
Prior to the closing bell today, I added about 50k to my 100% equities to my portfolio, just 2/3 VTSAX and 1/3 VTIAX, simple as that. For whats its worth this was about a 25% addition to my portfolio. I had been DCA'ing before, but seeing how low things have gotten, I couldn't help myself. Does that make me a market timer? I wont be selling a stock for a very long time (I'm only 24), so I guess in the meantime its just buy buy buy. Hopefully I'm not trying to catch a falling knife :sharebeer
Translation:

"I had an 80/20 portfolio and today I decided to make it 100/0."

We'll let you know next year how your timing worked out.
Someone DCAing will have cash that is not part of their long term investment portfolio yet. Seems fair to separate "that which is being invested" from "that which is not". When I got a bonus that not quite doubled my rather small taxable account, I had to consider whether it changed my risk tolerance. Rebalancing is so more expensive in a taxable account, and I had set my IPS based on only really having retirmenent accounts,
letsgobobby
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by letsgobobby »

DCA is typically used to describe the weekly or biweekly purchase of investments with money earned from a job. In that classic case there is no cash until it is earned, at which point it is invested.
john94549
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by john94549 »

As I noted in another thread, I purchased 200 shares of VTI on January 19. I sold them (at a modest profit) on January 22. Stated another way, it is indeed possible to purchase equities at "X" and sell them at "X+Y". Day traders, week traders, year traders. So long as the delta is positive, it's all about the +Y. Some folks tend to dismiss traders as bad investors. Traders who keep their eyes on the ball will do just fine.
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goingup
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by goingup »

Sounds as though the OP had a lump of cash which he was going to DCA into the 100% equity portfolio. Instead of this, he decided to become fully invested immediately.

Getting fully invested per your AA is not a bad move, in my opinion. :beer
dc81584
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by dc81584 »

I think you might be catching a falling knife, but given that you're only 24 years old, it hardly matters. You'll be very pleased with your financial situation 40 years down the road.
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Toons
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by Toons »

"Does that make me a market timer? I wont be selling a stock for a very long time (I'm only 24), so I guess in the meantime its just buy buy buy. Hopefully I'm not trying to catch a falling knife"

Time will tell,,but,
If you hold till you are 64,,,
It you won't remember where the market was when you bought.
Thats how it worked for me when I bought In 1987. :happy
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee
john94549
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by john94549 »

OP, I'd take the money and run. Worst case scenario, the market tanks into the close (I've seen this happen more than a few times). For future reference, ETFs can be sold with the click of a mouse. Mutual funds are pesky. I'd have rung the register when the S+P hit 1905.

I'd book green on a daily swing of +2%, especially in this market. As they say: "never let green fade to red".

Look at the bright side. If you booked green, you've made more in a day than I make in a year with my Alliant Credit Union CD*. You just had to push "sell".

*Seriously, in one of my dumber moments, I actually bought an Alliant Credit Union CD at 1.7%. At the time, it was deemed "competitive".
john94549
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by john94549 »

OP, it is impossible to predict direction in this market. This week has been the poster-child. If one is blessed with good fortune, and is "up", book profits. They might not last.

The biggest laugher recently: the "sequoia sempervirens" which roughly translates to "the redwood tree which lives forever". They are dying left and right here in California, due to the extreme drought.
joebh
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by joebh »

SpartanBull wrote: Prior to the closing bell today, I added about 50k to my 100% equities to my portfolio... I couldn't help myself.
I wish you good luck.
I wont be selling a stock for a very long time (I'm only 24)
How do you know? You were tempted by a bit of a "down" market, and you couldn't help yourself.
When the market inevitably goes "up", how do you know you will be able to help yourself this time and decide not to sell?
john94549
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by john94549 »

This volatility is a trader's nirvana. Up, down, up, down. All you need to make money is a bit of cash and a computer.

OK, a bit of history. Back when I was actually working, a trading shop opened up across the street from where I worked (One Embarcadero Center). I think it closed shop quite some time ago (last I checked it was a deli), but when it was hoppin', boy howdy, it was hoppin'. I mean, the place was "new money" central. I was a tad envious, inasmuch as the day traders bid up the price of drinks at the bar next door (appropriately named the "Royal Exchange"), which drinks they consumed copiously, as it were. But, hey, it was fun. Until the music stopped.

When the year 2000 dawned in San Francisco, it seemed like the good times would roll forever*. But, then, reality set in.

Not to be a "Debbie Downer", but it seems like we're back in the Royal Exchange, year 2000. Except now, I'm a tad older, and (hopefully) wiser. And I don't hang out at the Royal Exchange.

I suspect OP got smacked in the "you know what" by the market decline, but it's better to get smacked at age 24 than age 64.

*Seriously, my wife and I were as gullible as anyone else. We actually plunked $5000 into a "friends and family" IPO in January
of 2000. The stock soared in its first week of trading, then proceeded to tank. The company went BK shortly thereafter. That was a major "oops".
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goingup
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by goingup »

SpartanBull wrote: I wont be selling a stock for a very long time (I'm only 24), so I guess in the meantime its just buy buy buy.
OP-
This is the right frame of mind! When you're young you want to be accumulating. Bill Berstein (author) has said a 25 yr old accumulator should get down on his knees and pray for a long brutal bear market.
Fallible
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by Fallible »

SpartanBull wrote:
Fallible wrote:
SpartanBull wrote:Hi guys,
Prior to the closing bell today, I added about 50k to my 100% equities to my portfolio, just 2/3 VTSAX and 1/3 VTIAX, simple as that. For whats its worth this was about a 25% addition to my portfolio. I had been DCA'ing before, but seeing how low things have gotten, I couldn't help myself. Does that make me a market timer? I wont be selling a stock for a very long time (I'm only 24), so I guess in the meantime its just buy buy buy. Hopefully I'm not trying to catch a falling knife :sharebeer
So, you bought because of how you feel the market is doing, in this case "low" (and somewhere in there must be another feeling it won't go lower, or too much lower before it bottoms out, or might now go higher). And you're asking us if you just timed the market? The real question is whether youl'll now be lucky - or not.
This may be a justification, but on some level as long as I have ZERO intention to sell for the next 30 years or so...AKA I'm not buying/selling, just keeping an eye on when I buy, I suppose.
What's important now is that you understand what you've done and why it can be a valuable lesson next time you're tempted - and you will be, as we all are - to plunk down a chunk of hard-earned cash based on no more than a feeling about what the market might do, the same market that nobody can predict with any certainty. You could write it all down in your IPS for checking next time you're tempted. And if you don't have an IPS, check out the wiki: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investm ... _statement

And now I should say that you are a far better investor than I was at 24 because of your core investments, so congratulations on that. :beer
Last edited by Fallible on Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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john94549
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by john94549 »

Fallible wrote:
And now I should say that you are a far better investor than I was at 24 and congratulations on that.
Sounds like a discussion overheard many years ago at the Royal Exchange. The notion that folks (whatever their age) can just toss money into equities is, well, beyond me. I have no problem with trading, mind you. It's fun, and you can actually make money if you keep your eye on the ball, so to speak. But trading is not investing.
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by Fallible »

john94549 wrote:
Fallible wrote:
And now I should say that you are a far better investor than I was at 24 and congratulations on that.
Sounds like a discussion overheard many years ago at the Royal Exchange. The notion that folks (whatever their age) can just toss money into equities is, well, beyond me. I have no problem with trading, mind you. It's fun, and you can actually make money if you keep your eye on the ball, so to speak. But trading is not investing.
May be my fault, but I think you misunderstood my comment, which refers to the OP's core investments, not his market timing.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
john94549
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by john94549 »

Fallible wrote:
May be my fault, but I think you misunderstood my comment, which refers to the OP's core investments, not his market timing.
OK, then I suspect we're on the same page.
sambb
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by sambb »

funny how some think this is market timing. Every investment one can make is timed at some time or another. Congrats to the OP for buying now instead of at the market peak.
john94549
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by john94549 »

sambb wrote:funny how some think this is market timing. Every investment one can make is timed at some time or another. Congrats to the OP for buying now instead of at the market peak.
Sam, we merely need to divorce "investing" and "trading". If the OP was trading, then I could understand. On the other hand, if he was "investing", some might contend (with merit, might I add) that a mix of equities and fixed-income would be more prudent.

Moving right along, if he was trading, he should have been in ETFs, not mutual funds. As I noted above.
Last edited by john94549 on Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
EnjoyIt
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by EnjoyIt »

john94549 wrote: Sounds like a discussion overheard many years ago at the Royal Exchange. The notion that folks (whatever their age) can just toss money into equities is, well, beyond me. I have no problem with trading, mind you. It's fun, and you can actually make money if you keep your eye on the ball, so to speak. But trading is not investing.
I don't know john. This investor is 24 years old who will be investing in the market for a long time to come. If you and I agree that we are unsure if the market will go up or down over the next "X" months, but will likely go up over the following decades, then this investor probably did the right thing. Wouldn't you agree?

As for any investor at the Royal Exchange who bought S&P 500 back in January 27th 2000 is up 81% today. Not amazing, but still a gain. If OP continues to buy over the next 20 years he will be in great shape. 100% equities is not a horrible strategy at 24 either. Although I would probably follow Graham's advice and stay at a minimum of 25% bonds.
Last edited by EnjoyIt on Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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john94549
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by john94549 »

OMG, can we stop the food fight? Let's agree to disagree and move on. This is starting to sound like a discussion at Thanksgiving, where I'm the cranky Grandpa (which I am) and you're the nephew who works for a brokerage. My wife always had the "look" she would flash me, usually before dessert. I understood it to mean "shut up or no pie".
Last edited by john94549 on Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
EnjoyIt
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by EnjoyIt »

john94549 wrote:OMG, can we stop the food fight? Let's agree to disagree and move on. This is starting to sound like a discussion at Thanksgiving, where I'm the cranky Grandpa (which I am) and you're the nephew who works for a brokerage.
OMG indeed. Food fight? Thanksgiving? I thought we were having a discussion here. Hey, I am the first to admit I don't know a damn thing. All I have is history and hope. I'm told that those and a dollar still won't buy me a cup of coffee today.
Last edited by EnjoyIt on Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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sambb
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by sambb »

john94549 wrote:
sambb wrote:funny how some think this is market timing. Every investment one can make is timed at some time or another. Congrats to the OP for buying now instead of at the market peak.
Sam, we merely need to divorce "investing" and "trading". If the OP was trading, then I could understand. On the other hand, if he was "investing", some might contend (with merit, might I add) that a mix of equities and fixed-income would be more prudent.

Moving right along, if he was trading, he should have been in ETFs, not mutual funds. As I noted above.
It's very simple - I prefer to buy at a lower price if possible. I applaud the OP for doing that. It doesn't matter about the theories - what matters is that the OP recognized and came in. Good for them. I don't really mind that you call this a trade, i call it an investment. I don't know why so many posts begrudge those that jump in at a lower price, and accuse of timing. The end is more money. Kudos to those that did well.
Last edited by sambb on Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
john94549
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by john94549 »

EnjoyIt wrote: I'm told that and a dollar still won't buy me a cup of coffee today.
Especially at Starbucks. Have you checked out their prices these days? My wife loves her Starbucks, but I swear on a stack of coffee beans, it eats into our net worth.
Last edited by john94549 on Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
EnjoyIt
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by EnjoyIt »

john94549 wrote:
EnjoyIt wrote: I'm told that and a dollar still won't buy me a cup of coffee today.
Especially at Starbucks. Have you checked out their prices these days?
Yup, Starbucks ruined coffee. All they sell is bad coffee with different sweeteners and artificial flavors to hide the taste of the crappy coffee. What surprises me is that their beans are not to bad for what they are.
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Fallible
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by Fallible »

EnjoyIt wrote:
john94549 wrote: Sounds like a discussion overheard many years ago at the Royal Exchange. The notion that folks (whatever their age) can just toss money into equities is, well, beyond me. I have no problem with trading, mind you. It's fun, and you can actually make money if you keep your eye on the ball, so to speak. But trading is not investing.
I don't know john. This investor is 24 years old who will be investing in the market for a long time to come. If you and I agree that we are unsure if the market will go up or down over the next "X" months, but will likely go up over the following decades, then this investor probably did the right thing. Wouldn't you agree? ...
Just to repeat - the OP's request was only to know whether buying $50,000 worth of stocks now because he thought the market was "low" enough amounted to timing the market.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
john94549
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by john94549 »

I fear we're wandering perilously close to "off topic", but it's still fun. Certainly more interesting than debating the merits of 50/50 versus 60/40. I so love Bogleheads. Only here could one debate the merit of coffee along with the concept of investing.

Think about it.
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SpartanBull
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by SpartanBull »

Update--I've done it again. Seeing the Dow below 16,000...Snapped and bought 40k in Stocks...(2/3 vtsax, 1/3 vtiax). I guess its like that saying "when there's blood on the streets, buy property" :sharebeer
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nedsaid
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by nedsaid »

SpartanBull wrote:Hi guys,
Prior to the closing bell today, I added about 50k to my 100% equities to my portfolio, just 2/3 VTSAX and 1/3 VTIAX, simple as that. For whats its worth this was about a 25% addition to my portfolio. I had been DCA'ing before, but seeing how low things have gotten, I couldn't help myself. Does that make me a market timer? I wont be selling a stock for a very long time (I'm only 24), so I guess in the meantime its just buy buy buy. Hopefully I'm not trying to catch a falling knife :sharebeer
Over time, you will do just fine. My recommendation to investors with a large amount of money to invest in the market is to dollar cost average it in over time, preferably in monthly installments over a year's time. The research I have seen says you are better off to lump it all in at once, but I advise dollar cost averaging for psychological reasons. Buyer's remorse is a very powerful emotion. The market could drop a lot from here.
A fool and his money are good for business.
Raiddinn
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Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by Raiddinn »

If stocks go way down from their previous highs and you buy in, that makes you a value investor.

- Edit - I would say you were a market timer if you made some statements like "This is as low as they are going" or "They will start going up next week again". As long as you fully understand they can go down from here and your plans aren't built around them going up from here, then you are leaning more towards value investing.
an_asker
Posts: 4903
Joined: Thu Jun 27, 2013 2:15 pm

Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Post by an_asker »

I added about 50k to my 100% equities to my portfolio
OP, could you please explain the statement? In other words, if you are at 100% equities in your portfolio, where did you get the 50k from?

And now I read that you've added 40k more! Where is this cash cow? ;-)

PS: Never mind. It looks like you do get to close deals now and then! :-)
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