Predict stock movement this week
- Bogle_Feet
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Predict stock movement this week
Conventional wisdom is that the Fed will raise rates 1/4% on Wednesday. So what do you think will happen to stocks leading up to and after Wednesday?
I think a rate rise is already priced into the stock market and that only stupid money will be selling. The Friday drop is probably tax related sales. Monday or Tuesday might be a nice little buying opportunity.
I think a rate rise is already priced into the stock market and that only stupid money will be selling. The Friday drop is probably tax related sales. Monday or Tuesday might be a nice little buying opportunity.
Re: Predict stock movement this week
They will go up and they will go down
Re: Predict stock movement this week
In the words of JP Morgan, the market will fluctuate
Re: Predict stock movement this week
I think they will go down then up.jjface wrote:They will go up and they will go down
- triceratop
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Re: Predict stock movement this week
I predict stock prices to instantaneously indicate the value of one's investments while the market is open. I remain confident in my analysis.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."
Re: Predict stock movement this week
I predict the market will be up about 0.19% next week. This is based on the historical average of 10% annual nominal returns.
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Re: Predict stock movement this week
You can learn a lot about yourself as an investor this week and whether your allocation is appropriate for your risk tolerance.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
Re: Predict stock movement this week
I predict a complete wash by the end of the week.Bogle_Feet wrote:Conventional wisdom is that the Fed will raise rates 1/4% on Wednesday. So what do you think will happen to stocks leading up to and after Wednesday?
The market will not know what to do, and will flounder around for a few weeks.
Media pundits will simultaneously declare a bull and a bear market.
Predictions will abound, there will be panic in the streets.
Most Bogleheads will shrug and say "meh".
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Re: Predict stock movement this week
I think it will somewhat follow whatever oil prices do. There's an overage of gasoline and home heating oil in storage and tankers full of crude parked waiting for the price to go up to offload. So I think oil's going to wiggle, go down and then come back up, but stay relatively low. I don't think WTI will come above $40 but will head that way. The market will follow.
Bogle: Smart Beta is stupid
- arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Predict stock movement this week
Since everyone knows about the upcoming FOMC meeting and is anticipating Fed Fund rate "liftoff", isn't that information already priced into the stock market (as well as the bond market)?
If so, any stock movements "before" will probably be related to other information as it becomes available, as will stock movements "after" which will also be related to other information as it becomes available. In addition, the stock market will also begin pricing in information as to best guesses regarding when the NEXT rate change (notice I didn't say rate increase) will occur and by how much (note: they could be wrong).
The market will tell you all you need to know. Do not try to guess/outsmart/get ahead of the market. It is a fool's errand. Stick to the business of investing and remember that "nobody knows nuthin'" (quote by Jack Bogle).
If so, any stock movements "before" will probably be related to other information as it becomes available, as will stock movements "after" which will also be related to other information as it becomes available. In addition, the stock market will also begin pricing in information as to best guesses regarding when the NEXT rate change (notice I didn't say rate increase) will occur and by how much (note: they could be wrong).
The market will tell you all you need to know. Do not try to guess/outsmart/get ahead of the market. It is a fool's errand. Stick to the business of investing and remember that "nobody knows nuthin'" (quote by Jack Bogle).
It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events. Asking Portfolio Questions |
- patrick013
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- Joined: Mon Jul 13, 2015 7:49 pm
Re: Predict stock movement this week
As one journalist put it, who was market neutral BTW
"be comfortable with and expect more volatility"
If the increase was 1% there would be more volatility.
"be comfortable with and expect more volatility"
If the increase was 1% there would be more volatility.
age in bonds, buy-and-hold, 10 year business cycle
Re: Predict stock movement this week
Stocks? Who cares! How about a prediction on what the prices of bond funds will do?
BTW, futures show that tomorrow stocks will not be happy.
BTW, futures show that tomorrow stocks will not be happy.
Re: Predict stock movement this week
Ok , I`ll predict for this week. The bond market is now overbought but not at the exact extreme and is most likely to drop in value this week while the stock market is very oversold and is most likely to rise this week. These opinions are from my sentiment interpretation readings.
- cheese_breath
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Re: Predict stock movement this week
I predict they will move. I don't know how much and whether up or down. I'll get back to you with that at the end of the week.
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.
Re: Predict stock movement this week
On Monday, European stocks will be down 2% to 3% and US stocks down 1% to 2%. Bond funds will actually go up 0% to 0.5%.
Update 12/14: I am happy to report that I was totally totally wrong.
Update 12/14: I am happy to report that I was totally totally wrong.
Last edited by livesoft on Mon Dec 14, 2015 5:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Predict stock movement this week
As it is Sunday night, the futures markets have the best predictions of what the stock market will do on Monday, plus 0.03%, which is the average daily gain of the stock market. (0.03% daily is an 8% annual return for a stock market which is open 250 days per year.) There is a 51% chance that Monday's close will be higher than the current futures value, and a 51% chance of a gain on Tuesday over Monday's close. Those 51% and 0.03% numbers are the reason that investors who can wait for them to average out over the long run are in the market.
The markets, particularly the bond market, will react when the Fed makes its announcement, but you can't profit from that unless you have inside knowledge. If the Fed happens to announce that the target increase is 0.5% rather than the expected 0.25%, then bond prices will fall; conversely, if the announcement is no increase, then bond prices will rise. If there is a 30% chance of no increase, a 60% chance of a 0.25% increase, and a 10% chance of a 0.5% increase, then current bond yields should be based on a 0.20% increase, which is the weighted average of the probabilities; thus, if you hold a bond when the announcement comes out, you will break even on average.
The markets, particularly the bond market, will react when the Fed makes its announcement, but you can't profit from that unless you have inside knowledge. If the Fed happens to announce that the target increase is 0.5% rather than the expected 0.25%, then bond prices will fall; conversely, if the announcement is no increase, then bond prices will rise. If there is a 30% chance of no increase, a 60% chance of a 0.25% increase, and a 10% chance of a 0.5% increase, then current bond yields should be based on a 0.20% increase, which is the weighted average of the probabilities; thus, if you hold a bond when the announcement comes out, you will break even on average.
Re: Predict stock movement this week
are you sure? not up then down?jfn111 wrote:I think they will go down then up.jjface wrote:They will go up and they will go down
Re: Predict stock movement this week
> Predict stock movement this week
Lots of stocks will move.
Lots of stocks will move.
Re: Predict stock movement this week
They could go sideways.jjface wrote:are you sure? not up then down?jfn111 wrote:I think they will go down then up.jjface wrote:They will go up and they will go down
Re: Predict stock movement this week
Your question reminds me of the last paragraph of Jason Zweig's 2001 masterpiece on the Bogleheads (then Diehards) as they ended their annual conference with one Boglehead trying to take a final group photo:Bogle_Feet wrote:Conventional wisdom is that the Fed will raise rates 1/4% on Wednesday. So what do you think will happen to stocks leading up to and after Wednesday? ...
“Cheese,” she calls out from behind her lens, but not everyone smiles. “The market was down today!” she chirps, and grins spread across a few more faces. “The market was down today, and we don’t care!” she yells, and now all the Diehards are smiling. Finally the mood is just right. She snaps her picture."
Boldface is mine because that's also my answer to your question.
Last edited by Fallible on Sun Dec 13, 2015 10:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
Re: Predict stock movement this week
Exercise in futility
Already then, this week Miss Market will: Go Up, Go Down, Go Sideways.
Wishing my shipmates a Feliz Navidad.
Already then, this week Miss Market will: Go Up, Go Down, Go Sideways.
Wishing my shipmates a Feliz Navidad.
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~
Re: Predict stock movement this week
I'll play.
Stocks are down 3% on Monday.
The Fed doesn't raise interest rates Tuesday.
Stocks are up 1.5% by close on Friday.
Now go forth and pin the tail on the donkey!
Stocks are down 3% on Monday.
The Fed doesn't raise interest rates Tuesday.
Stocks are up 1.5% by close on Friday.
Now go forth and pin the tail on the donkey!
0+2=1
Re: Predict stock movement this week
Oil will shoot up to $90 for no apparent reason.
All stock prices will drastically rise to follow suit (stocks rise on
oil surge, blah blah blah)
Talking heads will begin to usher in a year of Jubilee
though there is less than a month left of the year.
Investors will feel spectator glee to the core of their being.
Bogleheads will discuss how safe bonds are vs taxes for rebalancing (for taxable accounts, of course)
This is really what is going to happen, though it could happen in another virtual world
and we won't even notice!
ps if I am correct I will probably be in jail for this knowledge!
All stock prices will drastically rise to follow suit (stocks rise on
oil surge, blah blah blah)
Talking heads will begin to usher in a year of Jubilee
though there is less than a month left of the year.
Investors will feel spectator glee to the core of their being.
Bogleheads will discuss how safe bonds are vs taxes for rebalancing (for taxable accounts, of course)
This is really what is going to happen, though it could happen in another virtual world
and we won't even notice!
ps if I am correct I will probably be in jail for this knowledge!
Re: Predict stock movement this week
I just came in and checked the bond and stock markets for my prediction on 12/13/15, at 7:27 pm for this week which isn`t over yet. I was happy to see the bonds go down and the stocks go up as predicted. So far so good. Four days to go though.
- Bogle_Feet
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Re: Predict stock movement this week
I placed a buy order for QQQ at 190. It got as low as 190.38 then closed at 111.63.
- ruralavalon
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Re: Predict stock movement this week
Stock market will change, unless it doesn't.
Everything will stay the same, unless it changes.
Everything will stay the same, unless it changes.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein |
Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
Re: Predict stock movement this week
Here I thought I could be clever and say it would go up, then down.
Of course 27 Bogleheads beat me there. Sadness. I vote we open one if these a week, then we can be like a fund manager to point to our recent accurate performance when people ask why they should join. We could even charge then a small fee, mail it out...
AND that kids was how I invented the investing newsletter
Of course 27 Bogleheads beat me there. Sadness. I vote we open one if these a week, then we can be like a fund manager to point to our recent accurate performance when people ask why they should join. We could even charge then a small fee, mail it out...
AND that kids was how I invented the investing newsletter
This space has been intentionally left blank, but required writing to notify you, so...yeah
Re: Predict stock movement this week
I predict it will either go up or down for the week,but will not close exactly where it is now (although that is possible).
Lar
Lar
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Re: Predict stock movement this week
jjface wrote:They will go up and they will go down
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Re: Predict stock movement this week
larmewar wrote:I predict it will either go up or down for the week,but will not close exactly where it is now (although that is possible).
Lar
Re: Predict stock movement this week
Careful the week is still young!stumblebum wrote:larmewar wrote:I predict it will either go up or down for the week,but will not close exactly where it is now (although that is possible).
Lar
- Phineas J. Whoopee
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- Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2011 5:18 pm
Re: Predict stock movement this week
Stock prices will move each week, day, hour, minute, and several microseconds, during market days and hours, this week, and will end up more or less different or the same as where they were at close of trade last Friday, depending on how one counts.
PJW
PJW
Re: Predict stock movement this week
This market thing must have a mind of its own.
Does it even read the news!?
Does it even read the news!?
0+2=1