The Sky Is Falling, What do I do?

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stemikger
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Re: The Sky Is Falling, What do I do?

Post by stemikger » Mon Sep 28, 2015 10:31 pm

Posted by Grt2bOutdoors
I wonder how much screaming is going to be going on across America's kitchen tables when the September statements go out in early October.
We can always employ one of Mr. Bogle's rules: "Don't Peek".
Choose Simplicity ~ Stay the Course!! ~ Press on Regardless!!!

Simbilis
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Re: The Sky Is Falling, What do I do?

Post by Simbilis » Mon Sep 28, 2015 11:06 pm

In a situation like this, you have to focus on what's really important. Given that CAPE ratios are at a 11 year high, energy prices at a 14-year low, and the potential for change in Fed leadership, do these new pants make my butt look fat?

N.B. 100% of the facts in this post were made up due to laziness. Also, kudos to SpringMan for the Bogle retweet.

john94549
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Re: The Sky Is Falling, What do I do?

Post by john94549 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 2:53 am

I suspect most discussions will be like this: "wow". End of discussion.

theunknowntech
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Re: The Sky Is Falling, What do I do?

Post by theunknowntech » Tue Sep 29, 2015 4:01 am

Fold your arms across your shoulders and look straight ahead. Don't be one of those people who cost us money. Do what you were trained to do.

S&L1940
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Re: The Sky Is Falling, What do I do?

Post by S&L1940 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 8:03 am

bengal22 wrote:I spent today rewatching on my DVR the Bengals beating the Ravens. Did the market go down?
some of us (or maybe only me) are in the withdrawal stage - and also are not football fans (again maybe only me) - as the old song goes, 'the days dwindle to a precious few'; recovery from '08 was just fine, and it will happen again; simply wondering if I/we have enough runway left to enjoy the next recovering and the ones that will surely come so we can enjoy the trip and the landing in the fashion to which we have become accustomed.
Always Be Prepared...
Don't it always seem to go * That you don't know what you've got * Till it's gone

closetoreality
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Re: The Sky Is Falling, What do I do?

Post by closetoreality » Tue Sep 29, 2015 8:11 am

As someone who has studied the market for the past 6-12 months and about to step in, this bear market to me is a blessing in disguise as far as opportunity.

john94549
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Re: The Sky Is Falling, What do I do?

Post by john94549 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:44 am

Sold my 100 shares of UPRO about three minutes ago. Covered the trade, and even made a few bucks. So, a good day in my trading account. Never let green fade to red.
Last edited by john94549 on Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:52 am, edited 1 time in total.

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tennisplyr
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Re: The Sky Is Falling, What do I do?

Post by tennisplyr » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:47 am

Happy that the NY Mets are in the playoffs....it's been a while :sharebeer
Those who move forward with a happy spirit will find that things always work out.

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goodenyou
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Re: The Sky Is Falling, What do I do?

Post by goodenyou » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:53 am

Are we actually supposed to use the money that we invest? It doesn't matter if it goes down, we are invested for the long run...long after we are gone. No worries.
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" | "The best years you have left are the ones you have right now"

john94549
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Re: The Sky Is Falling, What do I do?

Post by john94549 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 10:11 am

goodenyou wrote:Are we actually supposed to use the money that we invest? It doesn't matter if it goes down, we are invested for the long run...long after we are gone. No worries.
You raise an interesting point. I wonder how many folks "actually" follow a SWR. I mean, it's intellectually interesting, but how many folks actually "use" a SWR? I'm sure bored pollsters would love to know.
Last edited by john94549 on Tue Sep 29, 2015 10:15 am, edited 1 time in total.

jebmke
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Re: The Sky Is Falling, What do I do?

Post by jebmke » Tue Sep 29, 2015 10:14 am

john94549 wrote:
goodenyou wrote:Are we actually supposed to use the money that we invest? It doesn't matter if it goes down, we are invested for the long run...long after we are gone. No worries.
You raise an interesting point. I wonder how many folks "actually" follow a SWR. I mean, it's intellectually interesting, but how many folks actually "use" a SWR?
I work with a lot of retirees (also preparing taxes for many others). I don't know anyone who uses a mathematical system for funding their retirement. Most use (a) pension + SS keeping (often modest) savings for emergencies/special expenses, (b) the Taylor method and (c) Dividends and interest only with principal saved for heirs.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.

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bengal22
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Re: The Sky Is Falling, What do I do?

Post by bengal22 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 10:56 am

1530jesup wrote:
bengal22 wrote:I spent today rewatching on my DVR the Bengals beating the Ravens. Did the market go down?
some of us (or maybe only me) are in the withdrawal stage - and also are not football fans (again maybe only me) - as the old song goes, 'the days dwindle to a precious few'; recovery from '08 was just fine, and it will happen again; simply wondering if I/we have enough runway left to enjoy the next recovering and the ones that will surely come so we can enjoy the trip and the landing in the fashion to which we have become accustomed.
Always Be Prepared...
I too am in the withdrawal phase but I plan to continue to accumulate by appreciation of my portfolio. That is the plan. I know the market will have down years but on average I assume it will appreciate. Because I feel I have enough cushion in my savings, I still have a 55/45 Stock/equity allocation. If I was concerned about downturns wiping me out I would go to a much more conservative allocation.
"Earn All You Can; Give All You Can; Save All You Can." .... John Wesley

john94549
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Re: The Sky Is Falling, What do I do?

Post by john94549 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:17 am

Ahem, by definition, your investments are guaranteed to go up only when in IRA CDs. All else entails risk. I shall now take a nap.

BahamaMan
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Re: The Sky Is Falling, What do I do?

Post by BahamaMan » Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:03 pm

jebmke wrote:
john94549 wrote:
goodenyou wrote:Are we actually supposed to use the money that we invest? It doesn't matter if it goes down, we are invested for the long run...long after we are gone. No worries.
You raise an interesting point. I wonder how many folks "actually" follow a SWR. I mean, it's intellectually interesting, but how many folks actually "use" a SWR?
I work with a lot of retirees (also preparing taxes for many others). I don't know anyone who uses a mathematical system for funding their retirement. Most use (a) pension + SS keeping (often modest) savings for emergencies/special expenses, (b) the Taylor method and (c) Dividends and interest only with principal saved for heirs.
I am retired and use VPW for funding my retirement. My withdrawal amount drives my Budget, not the other way around.

Plans work. - I got here by planning and will continue to do so throughout my life.

Glenn
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Re: The Sky Is Falling, What do I do?

Post by Glenn » Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:54 pm

Does anyone actually use an SWR? Well, I'm retired and do use an SWR to calculate how much I can spend at a maximum each year. It's usually about twice what I actually spend, so the primary function of the calculation is to let me know that I need not worry about finances. Rational investing and living below my means while employed paid off.

And, I suppose, if I ever want to go above that value in a particular year I won't worry about that either, because I'll reckon it is a rare anomaly.

Does that count as "actually using an SWR"?

Leeraar
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Re: The Sky Is Falling, What do I do?

Post by Leeraar » Tue Sep 29, 2015 1:10 pm

What you should do is the thought experiment: What would you do?

What I mean is, if your monthly tracking of your status is not yielding actionable information, why bother? Ignore the noise.

In our case, we are retired and taking some monthly from our accounts. The plan is set, and there is no need to agonize over the monthly balance.

L.
You can get what you want, or you can just get old. (Billy Joel, "Vienna")

Sidney
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Re: The Sky Is Falling, What do I do?

Post by Sidney » Tue Sep 29, 2015 1:12 pm

My guess is that most people who "use SWR" use it as a rough gauge of the sustainability of their asset base vs. their expected spend rate.
I always wanted to be a procrastinator.

john94549
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Re: The Sky Is Falling, What do I do?

Post by john94549 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 2:31 pm

And my guess is that most folks don't know what "SWR" means. Of course, it's impossible to ascertain, as folks don't answer their phones these days, much less respond to polls.

"Hello, we're from the University of Somewhere. We're doing a poll of retirees. Do you observe a safe or sustainable withdrawal rate? Push 1 for yes. Push 2 for no. Push 3 for decline to state. If you don't have a clue what I'm talking about, Push 4, or stay on the line for a PhD candidate. The current wait time is seven hours."

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sgr000
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Re: The Sky Is Falling, What do I do?

Post by sgr000 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:35 pm

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:Fun, fun, fun watching money evaporate before one's eyes.......
Well. Since you started it:
The Beach Boys never really wrote: Fun, Fun, Fun: A Power-Pop Lament for the Over-Active Investor
Melody: "Fun, Fun, Fun", Feb 1964 (video)

Well you got your bag o' stocks
And you're crusin' through the portflios now
Seems you forgot all about allocation
Like you told ol' man Jack now
And with the S&P blasting
Go cruisin' past those rebalance bands now

And you'll have fun, fun, fun
'Til the market takes retirement away
(Fun fun fun 'til the market takes retirement away)

Well Wall St can't stand you
'Cause they walk, look, invest like an ass now
(They walk look invest like an ass now they walk look invest like an ass)
You make the S&P 500 look like a Roman chariot race now
(They look like an ass they look like an ass)
Active fund guys try to catch you
But you lead them on a golden goose chase now
(Invest like an ass now invest like an ass now)

And you'll have fun fun fun
'Til the market takes retirement away
(Fun fun fun 'til the market takes retirement away)

Well you knew all along
Mr Market's gettin' wise to you now
(You wouldn't have sighed you shouldn't have sighed)
And since he took your capital
You've been thinking your retirin' is all gone now
(You wouldn't have sighed you shouldn't have sighed)

But you can come along with me
Index with an IPS written down now
(You wouldn't have sighed you shouldn't have sighed)

And we'll have fun fun fun now your losses took retirement away
(Fun fun fun now your losses took retirement away)
And we'll have fun fun fun now your losses took retirement away
(Fun fun fun now your losses took the retirement away)
(fun fun now your losses took retirement away)
(fun fun now your losses took retirement away)
(fun fun now your losses took retirement away)
(fun fun now your losses took retirement away)
(fun fun now your losses took retirement away)
(fun fun now your losses took retirement away)
The first Bogleheads to record and post a video will earn... something. Possibly my good will, possibly the mockery of the rest of humanity, possibly founder status in some fraternity whose initials will have to spell out "WTF". But something.

Grt2bOutdoors
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Re: The Sky Is Falling, What do I do?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Tue Sep 29, 2015 6:55 pm

+1 Great job - SGR! :beer
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

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