Time to buy up EUR?

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Investment101
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Time to buy up EUR?

Post by Investment101 » Thu Mar 12, 2015 3:39 am

Saw the USD/EUR chart and EUR seems to be pretty low now, I got some USD aside thinking about buying up some EUR and convert it back when EUR is strong again. what do you guys think about this? Suggestion for banks to open EUR account with min fee and best conversion rate, and recommendation after the conversion? I guess CD? thanks for the help!

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obgyn65
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Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Post by obgyn65 » Thu Mar 12, 2015 4:19 am

I am thinking of doing something similar but not sure how to do it. I have money in different bank accounts in Europe, and currently thinking of sending some dollars there.
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Noobvestor
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Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Post by Noobvestor » Thu Mar 12, 2015 4:29 am

Why do you think the pendulum will swing back anytime soon? What if it never does?
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wassabi
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Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Post by wassabi » Thu Mar 12, 2015 4:46 am

I don't mess with currencies, but if I did I'd use Ever Bank (everbank.com).

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nisiprius
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Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Post by nisiprius » Thu Mar 12, 2015 4:48 am

According to Morningstar, over the last 15 years, the "investor returns" of EUR were 0.11%. That's the actual amount that actual investors in the fund earned, annualized, on the average. These investors were buying and selling the fund at various time of their choosing.

The fund return--what an investor who simply stayed the course, making a purchase in the year 2000 and never buying or selling, was 3.72%.
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Rainier
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Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Post by Rainier » Thu Mar 12, 2015 7:14 am

No reason why it ever has to be stronger than the dollar. Could be, but if they had their say it won't be. If you have future expenses in EUR that is a different story.

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Runalong
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Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Post by Runalong » Thu Mar 12, 2015 12:23 pm

Currently, the US has stated that they are going to be tightening and the EU has indicated that they are going to be loosening.

If they do what they've said (no guarantee there, but they usually try to avoid surprises), then it's hard to see why the dollar wouldn't continue to gain strength vs the Euro.

But then, this is what the general consensus seems to be expecting so there's a good chance it won't happen this way!

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ogd
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Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Post by ogd » Thu Mar 12, 2015 12:28 pm

Runalong wrote: But then, this is what the general consensus seems to be expecting so there's a good chance it won't happen this way!
I would phrase it like "there's a good chance it's already happened this way".

Currency investments are a bad deal. A lot of volatility with zero expected return (or slightly negative after fees).

If you want to do this, at least layer it on top of something that makes money, like Euro stocks. I was gonna say "or Euro bonds", but then I remembered that those yield nothing or negative if you want any safety.

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Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Post by KyleAAA » Thu Mar 12, 2015 12:51 pm

The forex market is even more difficult to time than the stock market. Obviously, this is not a wise investment.

RobInCT
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Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Post by RobInCT » Thu Mar 12, 2015 12:57 pm

Oh, hey! EUR pretty low? Sounds like a good time to take that trip to Paris I've been dreaming about. That's about how far I'd go in letting this information affect my finances.

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ivyhedge
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Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Post by ivyhedge » Thu Mar 12, 2015 12:58 pm

In addition to Everbank, there are Currencyshares (individual states), Powershares (bullish/bearish), and Wisdomtree (bullish/bearish and EM) ETFs that you can use.

If you use Interactive Brokers, it's easier, and more transparent, to just buy Euros without the logistical messiness of schlepping your currency to different accounts (and paying Everbank's high holding/conversion fees).

Cheers!
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ivyhedge
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Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Post by ivyhedge » Thu Mar 12, 2015 12:59 pm

RobInCT wrote:Oh, hey! EUR pretty low? Sounds like a good time to take that trip to Paris I've been dreaming about. That's about how far I'd go in letting this information affect my finances.
And that, *if you were already in the planning stage*, might be a good idea! :moneybag
Polymath.

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Epsilon Delta
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Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Post by Epsilon Delta » Thu Mar 12, 2015 1:33 pm

Runalong wrote:Currently, the US has stated that they are going to be tightening and the EU has indicated that they are going to be loosening.

If they do what they've said (no guarantee there, but they usually try to avoid surprises), then it's hard to see why the dollar wouldn't continue to gain strength vs the Euro.
Of course over the last few years (most of a decade now) US policy has been loose, the EU has been tight. This explains why the Euro has gained strength during that period.

grandmacassie
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Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Post by grandmacassie » Thu Mar 12, 2015 1:49 pm

Was thinking about buying enough to cover spending on my next trip over. Dinner was ouchy when Euro was $1.65.

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Runalong
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Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Post by Runalong » Thu Mar 12, 2015 1:53 pm

Yes, we're booked for the Alps already.

I hear that they are lovely this time of the monetary cycle.

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Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Post by itstoomuch » Thu Mar 12, 2015 1:58 pm

DS & friends has also booked airfare and ski guide to Swiss Alps (April).
Lucky him.
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sawhorse
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Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Post by sawhorse » Thu Mar 12, 2015 2:41 pm

My husband is European and has a bank account in his country. We were discussing last night whether to transfer some money there. He was against it because he said that he thinks the Euro will continue going down and that most Americans don't realize just how precarious the situation is. Just one person's opinion.

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Peter Foley
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Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Post by Peter Foley » Thu Mar 12, 2015 2:56 pm

We go to Europe every 3 years or so. I've thought about buying some Euros in advance of our next trip. The issue I have is with the fees associated with buying currency here in the US. Is there any way around those fees? In the past we have used an ATM at the airport upon arriving in Europe - we have a no fee back card.

We are only talking about converting $1k to $2k in advance of our next trip.

111
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Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Post by 111 » Thu Mar 12, 2015 3:12 pm

I am earning dollars and spending Euros and will continue for at least the next three years. I'm still just converting whatever I need as I need it as I'm guessing that the Euro will continue dropping against the dollar for a while.

I just wish I hadn't booked the flights for my next vacation so far in advance.

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Watty
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Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Post by Watty » Thu Mar 12, 2015 3:24 pm

Peter Foley wrote:We go to Europe every 3 years or so. I've thought about buying some Euros in advance of our next trip. The issue I have is with the fees associated with buying currency here in the US. Is there any way around those fees? In the past we have used an ATM at the airport upon arriving in Europe - we have a no fee back card.

We are only talking about converting $1k to $2k in advance of our next trip.
Carrying a couple of thousand dollars in cash probably is not a good idea.

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Investment101
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Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Post by Investment101 » Thu Mar 12, 2015 5:58 pm

what's going on over there in Europe that will keep making EUR depreciating?


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Rainier
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Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Post by Rainier » Thu Mar 12, 2015 6:50 pm

Runalong wrote:Yes, we're booked for the Alps already.

I hear that they are lovely this time of the monetary cycle.
Back to Switzerland next February for us.

You can also buy foreign currency at your brokerage. Fidelity charges 1%, same as Everbank. You can't spend it though, you'd have to convert back to USD to pay the credit card bill.

inbox788
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Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Post by inbox788 » Thu Mar 12, 2015 11:03 pm

Not recommended, but FWIW, I'm waiting for parity. I think it might overshoot a bit and hover with some volatility around parity for a while .9-1.2 for next 1-2 years, but what do I know? YMMV

One way to buy Euro is via Euro ETF (FXE). Or if you want more exposure for short duration, ULE and URR.

No Euro vacation this summer for me, but if rates stay in this range, maybe plan one for 2016!

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Texas Radio
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Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Post by Texas Radio » Thu Mar 12, 2015 11:54 pm

been buying VGK

look what QE did for U.S.
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Investment101
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Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Post by Investment101 » Sat Mar 14, 2015 10:53 pm

how about ruble ? can you buy that here in US.

Russia mutual funds? I never looked into it before

Valuethinker
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Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Post by Valuethinker » Sun Mar 15, 2015 10:38 am

Investment101 wrote:how about ruble ? can you buy that here in US.

Russia mutual funds? I never looked into it before
There's a Russia ETF. Just make sure you can afford to lose. Just because Russian stocks have dropped 50%, doesn't mean they can't go down more.

Valuethinker
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Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Post by Valuethinker » Sun Mar 15, 2015 10:39 am

My own bet is the Euro keeps going down. Greece and Quantitative Easing seem enough to do it, even without more ructions with Mr. Putin.

But, for sure, I won't call the turn correctly.

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Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Post by Valuethinker » Sun Mar 15, 2015 10:40 am

Rainier wrote:No reason why it ever has to be stronger than the dollar. Could be, but if they had their say it won't be. If you have future expenses in EUR that is a different story.
And at inception, the EUR traded for less than the USD. No particular reason why it could not do so again, particularly if a daisy chain of exits follows a Greek meltdown.

njdoctor
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Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Post by njdoctor » Sun Mar 15, 2015 3:52 pm

The Euro will keep declining in value for at least the remainder of this year because the ECB is launching their QE program while the Fed is winding down its program and may raise rates later this year. Now is a great time to take a trip to Europe but not to invest in their currency.

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Rainier
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Re: Time to buy up EUR?

Post by Rainier » Mon Mar 16, 2015 3:36 pm

I just bought CHF in my Fidelity account. I bought 1/4 of my expected hotel cost and I will buy the remaining quarters 3, 6, and 9 months before my trip date.

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