I tend to overthink everything, not just investing. (It's hard being me!)ajb115 wrote:Anoop, it sounds like you overthink investing and get sucked into the noise of the market. You invested in individual stocks in 2000. You exited equities in the crash. You bought GLD over the last two years. You didn't also happen to buy three homes in 2006, did you?
I bought GLD because of one of the other blogs/sites that I was reading.
I was about to buy my first home in early 2004 when I decided there was a bubble. The home (new construction) that I was about to buy went up $15K in 3 weeks between the time I expressed interest and the time I was about to go into contract. I kicked myself for not buying in the following year and a half as I saw myself get priced out. Had I bought back then, I would still be underwater, but not by much. I pretty much saw the bottom of real-estate and was ready to buy except that there was next to nothing on the market that I wanted to buy...homes that were on the market were mostly in really bad shape. New construction was relatively over-priced and in areas that I didn't want to live in.
What is wrong with buying TIPS? As long as the purchasing power of my money is intact, I should be OK. The long bond is risky, I agree, but I'm only talking about buying small amounts of that.ajb115 wrote:You've already gotten a lot of good advice from smarter investors than I. My advice? LISTEN TO THEM. Start buying into stocks a little bit at a time, or put your retirement into an all-in-one fund. But for god's sake, don't start buying 30-year treasuries and intermediate TIPS and hope to come out ahead. This is a recipe for continually losing to inflation.
My biggest fear at this point is that I may be doing exactly what people warn about...buying the high. Most stock market measures indicate inflated prices (PE, market-cap to revenue, etc.). If I invest any significant amount and it goes down, I will feel like a complete loser. Just like Zvi Bodie says in one of his videos, I hate losing much more than I enjoy winning. So I think my comfort level would be about 20% of assets for now.