Tesla Motors Stock

oragne lovre · Post by **oragne lovre** » Mon Jul 08, 2013 3:23 pm

I've decided to set aside some "fun money" to play with an individual stock, specifically Tesla Motors. I looked up Vanguard website first to see if I could get some Tesla shares from it. I have, however, not found any individual Tesla stock at Vanguard; it is usually in funds such as Small Cap ETF.
Can anybody tell me what is the best place in terms of investment fee and cost to buy some Tesla shares?

Many thanks in advance.

WHL · Post by **WHL** » Mon Jul 08, 2013 3:32 pm

Interesting timing, considering it's currently something like 5 times higher than its 52 week low :oops:

When I was into stock speculation (which is what you're asking about) I bought at both Schwab and Fidelity. Schwab was very easy to use.

SHB · Post by **SHB** » Mon Jul 08, 2013 3:39 pm

Posts like this are like nails on a chalk board to me. I cringe every time.

To answer your question you can get Tesla stock by opening any normal taxable brokerage account. Examples are Fidelity, Tradeking, Scottrade etc.

Now that I've answered the question can I please ask why you are going to buy Tesla? I was on vacation last week and I kid you not I talked to at least 4 different people all of whom said they were thinking about buying Tesla. Yes its had big gains buy what makes you think you've divined anything that the thousands of other people (including professional money managers) havn't yet with such a widely publicized company that will give you positive risk adjusted returns.

If you want to gamble on the next stock "pop" you'll probably have a better chance randomly investing in something that hasn't gotten so much publicity in the last 3 months.
If you want a pure high risk high reward play you can at least make a portfolio of high beta stocks to at least work in some semblance of diversification.

matonplayer · Post by **matonplayer** » Mon Jul 08, 2013 3:53 pm

I have a friend that's big into CAN SLIM and he bought TSLA at 102. He says he can get 10% return on his portfolio with no problem...

BestWishes · Post by **BestWishes** » Mon Jul 08, 2013 3:57 pm

My son uses Scottrade. I think $7 per trade. He likes Tesla cars so he bought one share for fun :happy

Stan Dup · Post by **Stan Dup** » Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:12 pm

I work in the automotive field; there is nothing magical about Tesla. The laws of physics have not been overcome, nor will they soon.

"Build it and they will come" does not apply to electric cars.

InvestorNewb · Post by **InvestorNewb** » Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:21 pm

It's pretty crazy that the stock is up 259% year to date. :shock:

matjen · Post by **matjen** » Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:24 pm

The Tesla bubble visualized. Of course, I probably would have said the same thing a few years ago about Apple...long before it deflated. Edit: meaning I have no idea if the stock will keep going higher like Apple did before finally reversing. Good luck.

http://chartianity.wordpress.com/2013/0 ... isualized/

BigHead · Post by **BigHead** » Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:29 pm

InvestorNewb wrote:It's pretty crazy that the stock is up 259% year to date.

Exactly why I currently have negative interest in it.

In order to get ahead, can't be the last one to the party.

oragne lovre · Post by **oragne lovre** » Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:35 pm

SHB wrote:Posts like this are like nails on a chalk board to me. I cringe every time.

To answer your question you can get Tesla stock by opening any normal taxable brokerage account. Examples are Fidelity, Tradeking, Scottrade etc.

Now that I've answered the question can I please ask why you are going to buy Tesla? I was on vacation last week and I kid you not I talked to at least 4 different people all of whom said they were thinking about buying Tesla. Yes its had big gains buy what makes you think you've divined anything that the thousands of other people (including professional money managers) havn't yet with such a widely publicized company that will give you positive risk adjusted returns.

If you want to gamble on the next stock "pop" you'll probably have a better chance randomly investing in something that hasn't gotten so much publicity in the last 3 months.
If you want a pure high risk high reward play you can at least make a portfolio of high beta stocks to at least work in some semblance of diversification.

Thank you pointing me towards Fidelity, Scottrade, etc.
To answer your question as to why Tesla Motors, I just want to do something fun to celebrate my achievement of financial goal by sticking to boglehead way for past 10 years. I want to feel what it is like to own a "hot" individual stock share, which I have never had in my investing years, then experience the exciting roller-coaster ride it may offer. In addition, I can also have a bragging right as an owner of a "most-talked-about" stock

I appreciate your well-intended warning about stock gambling. No, I do not intend to gamble. I'm going to buy ONE share of Tesla Motors instead of a bottle of excellent wine, then sit back and enjoy its ride

teacher · Post by **teacher** » Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:51 pm

Vanguard Capital Opportunity and Vanguard Small Cap Index hold Telsa Motors Stock. Here are some other funds that have holdings in Telsa.
http://investors.morningstar.com/owners ... tml?t=TSLA

Randomize · Post by **Randomize** » Mon Jul 08, 2013 5:34 pm

I think optionshouse has the cheapest trades at $4/pop. Only thing cheaper than that is a vanguard brokerage with a half mil sitting in it.

oragne lovre · Post by **oragne lovre** » Mon Jul 08, 2013 6:19 pm

brianbooth wrote:I think optionshouse has the cheapest trades at $4/pop. Only thing cheaper than that is a vanguard brokerage with a half mil sitting in it.

I'll also look at Optionhouse.
Thanks for the info.

Tabulator · Post by **Tabulator** » Mon Jul 08, 2013 6:35 pm

WHL wrote:Interesting timing, considering it's currently something like 5 times higher than its 52 week low

Indeed, if you want to play the market you can do much better than Tesla. Look for cheap, not overpriced, stocks.

investor · Post by **investor** » Mon Jul 08, 2013 6:52 pm

I bought and sold TSLA - Telsa Stock through Vanguard VBS some weeks back. Don't understand why you can not use Vanguard Brokerage.
I made 46% in six days with my FUN money. IRA. no taxes

edit:
I just checked on Vanguard VBS and TSLA is available for trade on the Brokerage Site.

investor

Jim180 · Post by **Jim180** » Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:40 pm

I think the P/E on that stock is 100+

oragne lovre · Post by **oragne lovre** » Mon Jul 08, 2013 11:28 pm

investor wrote:I bought and sold TSLA - Telsa Stock through Vanguard VBS some weeks back. Don't understand why you can not use Vanguard Brokerage.
I made 46% in six days with my FUN money. IRA. no taxes

edit:
I just checked on Vanguard VBS and TSLA is available for trade on the Brokerage Site.

investor

I've found TSLA on Vanguard Brokerage site.

Thanks

aaronl · Post by **aaronl** » Tue Jul 09, 2013 12:04 am

BigHead wrote:
InvestorNewb wrote:It's pretty crazy that the stock is up 259% year to date.

Exactly why I currently have negative interest in it.

In order to get ahead, can't be the last one to the party.

It's nice to have some company!

It's been a rough ride...

Default User BR · Post by **Default User BR** » Tue Jul 09, 2013 1:10 am

How much are you thinking of investing? ShareBuilder has some good bonuses for smaller deposits. See: http://www.hustlermoneyblog.com/best-brokerage-bonuses/

Brian

fatlittlepig · Post by **fatlittlepig** » Tue Jul 09, 2013 7:05 am

go for it. buy some now then wait for a pullback and buy more.

oragne lovre wrote:
SHB wrote:Posts like this are like nails on a chalk board to me. I cringe every time.

To answer your question you can get Tesla stock by opening any normal taxable brokerage account. Examples are Fidelity, Tradeking, Scottrade etc.

Now that I've answered the question can I please ask why you are going to buy Tesla? I was on vacation last week and I kid you not I talked to at least 4 different people all of whom said they were thinking about buying Tesla. Yes its had big gains buy what makes you think you've divined anything that the thousands of other people (including professional money managers) havn't yet with such a widely publicized company that will give you positive risk adjusted returns.

If you want to gamble on the next stock "pop" you'll probably have a better chance randomly investing in something that hasn't gotten so much publicity in the last 3 months.
If you want a pure high risk high reward play you can at least make a portfolio of high beta stocks to at least work in some semblance of diversification.

Thank you pointing me towards Fidelity, Scottrade, etc.
To answer your question as to why Tesla Motors, I just want to do something fun to celebrate my achievement of financial goal by sticking to boglehead way for past 10 years. I want to feel what it is like to own a "hot" individual stock share, which I have never had in my investing years, then experience the exciting roller-coaster ride it may offer. In addition, I can also have a bragging right as an owner of a "most-talked-about" stock

I appreciate your well-intended warning about stock gambling. No, I do not intend to gamble. I'm going to buy ONE share of Tesla Motors instead of a bottle of excellent wine, then sit back and enjoy its ride

Ranger · Post by **Ranger** » Tue Jul 09, 2013 8:17 am

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/ ... FQ20130709

Tesla Motors to replace Oracle Corp on Nasdaq 100 Index.

Currently the stock has all the momo. If one is desperate to own the stock, best way to own is to sell puts below. Atleast one can capture 85% volatility with put selling.

z3r0c00l · Post by **z3r0c00l** » Tue Jul 09, 2013 9:41 am

Go back and check the threads on the Facebook IPO. I understand fun money investing, but not sure that this will be fun for you. When the hype is through the roof on a stock, why buy into it? Perhaps Tesla will be what Ford or GM were during the golden age of American autos. Perhaps Ford and GM will be the kings of electric...

bish0p · Post by **bish0p** » Tue Jul 09, 2013 11:17 am

oragne lovre wrote:To answer your question as to why Tesla Motors, I just want to do something fun to celebrate my achievement of financial goal by sticking to boglehead way for past 10 years. I want to feel what it is like to own a "hot" individual stock share, which I have never had in my investing years, then experience the exciting roller-coaster ride it may offer. In addition, I can also have a bragging right as an owner of a "most-talked-about" stock

You already own Tesla if you have the Total Stock Market Index Fund. I got lucky with my play money and bought Tesla last December. But they could have easily turned out like Fisker :thumbsdown

jdb · Post by **jdb** » Tue Jul 09, 2013 12:48 pm

I own the car (Model S) and the stock. Very happy with both to date. At current valuation would recommend buying the car. Hoping that stock goes down so can buy more.

mikefixac · Post by **mikefixac** » Tue Jul 09, 2013 9:24 pm

I bought Tesla after reading the article in Consumer Reports. Got lucky and made ~40% and sold (Roth).

When travelling from Seattle to LA on my motorcycle, I came to my senses and thought, they can't even make a motorcycle to run long trips via batteries, how will they make cars?". So I sold it.

I hope I'm wrong and Tesla does indeed live up to its dream.

Stan Dup · Post by **Stan Dup** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 9:27 am

michaelcross wrote:When travelling from Seattle to LA on my motorcycle, I came to my senses and thought, they can't even make a motorcycle to run long trips via batteries, how will they make cars?". So I sold it.

I agree.

Henry Ford's wife Clara drove an electric car. We face the same limitations today that they faced back then; not much has really changed.

I'll say it again, there is nothing magical about Tesla. The laws of physics have not been overcome, nor will they soon.

"Build it and they will come" does not apply to electric cars.

Everyone makes the mistake of wanting their electric car to perform just like their gasoline car (same range, acceleration, size, cost, safety, comfort). If electric cars become commonplace it will only be the result of the paradigm of our lives, society, and cities being altered. Everything else will have to be adapted to an electric (or more likely, hydrogen-based electric) vehicle system.

This will result in long-term seismic shifts in the world's economies, which will offer plenty of other opportunities for investing.

n00b_to_investing · Post by **n00b_to_investing** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 1:07 pm

I noticed on Y!Finance the founder Elon Musk put his own $$ and bought Tesla shares @ $92

jdb · Post by **jdb** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 1:54 pm

[quote="Stan DupEveryone makes the mistake of wanting their electric car to perform just like their gasoline car (same range, acceleration, size, cost, safety, comfort). If electric cars become commonplace it will only be the result of the paradigm of our lives, society, and cities being altered. Everything else will have to be adapted to an electric (or more likely, hydrogen-based electric) vehicle system.

This will result in long-term seismic shifts in the world's economies, which will offer plenty of other opportunities for investing.[/quote]

This is a site devoted to question of buying TSLA stock (which I do not recommend at current valuation), not the car. But since I am apparently only Boglehead participating on this forum with Tesla Model S wanted to respond to your points about car. in fact, the Model S exceeds ICE cars in every respect but one. Acceleration: Think of a big four door sedan beating a non turbo Porsche 911 in quarter mile acceleration from stop. Handling: again, think of four door sedan with very low center of gravity handling slalom better than most 2 door sports cars. Size: Easily seats five adults, with more storage space than any ICE sedan due to additional trunk in front ('frunk") where normally an engine would sit. Comfort: Think Audi A8 or Mercedes S Class. Safety: Probably safest car ever produced due to very low center of gravity, 1,000 pound steel encased battery under car, and no gas tank. Purchase Cost: It is a luxury car. But probably less expensive than comparables like Mercedes S Class and Audi A8 and Porsche Panamera due to $7500 tax credit. Certainly not more expensive. Operating Cost: Much cheaper to operate. I refuel every evening in my garage, costs less than $10 per week in electrical charge, vs. fill up every week in my ICE at cost of about $65 for same range. Range: yes, that is difference. I get about 230 miles daily range driving 70mph or so on freeways. But that is more than my daily needs. By time get Model X in 2015 plan to be making long trips with superchargers. The paradigm has occured, Tesla is causing the seismic shift as recognized by market in TSLA stock valuation. Just need to get used to it. and if have chance try a test drive.

Stan Dup · Post by **Stan Dup** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:22 pm

Your details make my point. But I will take this offline. Otto Benz did not create the paradigm shift by selling expensive cars, Henry Ford created it by selling inexpensive cars.

I applaud what he is doing but we all have a long way to go. A very long way.

Edit: I tried to contact you but you do not have any way of reaching you here. Feel free to contact me.

SHB · Post by **SHB** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:37 pm

As another comment on the Tesla S. My father got one three weeks ago. He is (as well as my entire family) a very big car guy. Owns several classic cars, a few modern muscle/super cars, drag races a 900 CI Top Sportsman car, etc. He over and over the past few weeks has said "Steve, that Tesla S is one hell of a car, I caint wait for you to drive it" Shoot he didn't even say that about his 67 Corvette!

Take it for what its worth but even a die hard petrol head cant get over that car.

matjen · Post by **matjen** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:44 pm

Stan Dup wrote:Your details make my point. But I will take this offline. Otto Benz did not create the paradigm shift by selling expensive cars, Henry Ford created it by selling inexpensive cars.

I applaud what he is doing but we all have a long way to go. A very long way.

Edit: I tried to contact you but you do not have any way of reaching you here. Feel free to contact me.

Why not keep it online? We may all learn something or gain a different perspective. There is no doubt that range for longer driving is a real problem and on this thread and others fans of the company keep bringing up the supercharger network. It seems to me that they are better than nothing certainly but even when they finally cover a decent section of the US there will still be only a handful of charging bays. So on a map it says there is a supercharger in Normal, IL. Its one thing to say that I am leaving Thursday night from Chicago to drive to St. Louis (or vice versa) and plan on charging there. Say 30-45 minutes. It is another to get there and be greeted by a line of other Teslas trying to do the same thing. The Normal, IL supercharger has 4 stalls. That supply and demand ratio is unknown to me but I could see it being a real problem in 2 years.

Stan Dup · Post by **Stan Dup** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 3:01 pm

This is where investment opportunities will arise, but only for entrepeneurs.

Battery changing, not charging, stations will need to happen to mimic the convenience of a gasoline fill up. Others are working on this.

Running the air conditioner consumes about the same amount of energy as it takes to propel the vehicle. Try changing that behavior.

I could go on.

Remember, it did not just take the Model T to make cars commonplace, there also had to be service stations and a road network to be built to support them. It did not happen overnight. This is the key (investing) point I am making about electrification, it is going to take a long time. Invest accordingly.

Many manufacturers have electric or hybrid-electric vehicles. They have been greeted with a collective yawn. Enthusiastic early adopters do not make a big difference overall.

matjen · Post by **matjen** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 3:13 pm

Stan Dup wrote:This is where investment opportunities will arise, but only for entrepeneurs.

Battery changing, not charging, stations will need to happen to mimic the convenience of a gasoline fill up. Others are working on this.

Running the air conditioner consumes about the same amount of energy as it takes to propel the vehicle. Try changing that behavior.

I could go on.

Remember, it did not just take the Model T to make cars commonplace, there also had to be service stations and a road network to be built to support them. It did not happen overnight. This is the key (investing) point I am making about electrification, it is going to take a long time. Invest accordingly.

Many manufacturers have electric or hybrid-electric vehicles. They have been greeted with a collective yawn. Enthusiastic early adopters do not make a big difference overall.

Agree. I really liked the concept of Better Place with their battery switch but they just went bust. Couldn't make it work in Israel and Denmark. http://www.betterplace.com/

ryuns · Post by **ryuns** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 4:17 pm

Stan Dup wrote:This is where investment opportunities will arise, but only for entrepeneurs.

Battery changing, not charging, stations will need to happen to mimic the convenience of a gasoline fill up. Others are working on this.

Running the air conditioner consumes about the same amount of energy as it takes to propel the vehicle. Try changing that behavior.

I could go on.

Remember, it did not just take the Model T to make cars commonplace, there also had to be service stations and a road network to be built to support them. It did not happen overnight. This is the key (investing) point I am making about electrification, it is going to take a long time. Invest accordingly.

Many manufacturers have electric or hybrid-electric vehicles. They have been greeted with a collective yawn. Enthusiastic early adopters do not make a big difference overall.

Not as an argument to your overall point, but just to add a couple things:

Regarding the bolded section, I'd love to see those numbers. Here are Tesla's, below. Note the sliver represented by HVAC. To look at it another way, it looks like the car has about an average consumption of 12.6 kW at 60 mph. That'd be a chilly AC.

You can already hot swap batteries in the Tesla. Who knows if that will take off, but it's really quite impressive that they had the foresight to build their vehicles that way, and sort of announced the capability after the fact.
http://www.edmunds.com/car-news/tesla-t ... twork.html

As to your greater point, from an investment perspective, I'd agree. There is a big upside for Tesla, but it's a huge gamble. The biggest I could think of would that their technology gets widely adopted and utilized by others. Since they're way out ahead in battery design, fast charging, battery swapping, and infrastructure, it's conceivable that other EV could just decide to get in on this. And Tesla may decide that it's sufficiently lucrative for them to do it that way. There also could be a technological breakthrough in energy storage and they could be best positioned to take advantage of it. Those definitely seem like long shots to me, but I can at least see the upside of what people are gambling on, which isn't always the case with hot stocks.

fareastwarriors · Post by **fareastwarriors** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 4:24 pm

I rather buy the car than the stock.

Stan Dup · Post by **Stan Dup** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 4:42 pm

I do not mean for these responses to sound like I am attacking you.

"Since they're way out ahead in battery design" No, they are not. Nothing proprietary about what they do.
"fast charging" No, fast charging is not new or unique to Tesla.
"battery swapping" The company that promoted this just filed for bankruptcy after several years of trying to get it going.
"and infrastructure" Charging stations already exist all over the country as a result of cooperative agreements with local power companies. Has not seemed to cause buyers to flock to electric vehicles.
"it's conceivable that other EV could just decide to get in on this." All of them have been talking with one another, and the goverment, and the universities, for years.
"There also could be a technological breakthrough in energy storage and they could be best positioned to take advantage of it." I was talking with a leading expert in battery technology ( a professor) and he said that it takes approximately 18 years to bring a new battery chemistry to market (all the basic chemical research and real life fundamental research). They are currently working on the next generation battery chemistries, but nothing big is coming down the pike.

Again, Tesla does not have any technology that is unique to them; there is nothing magical about them. But, as can be seen on many forums, they have tremendous amounts of goodwill. So did Bernie Madoff.

We, as a global society, will need to change the way our societies are structured for electric vehicles to be a success. We all want them to just be a direct replacement for ICE vehicles. Instead, we will have to adapt our ways to them.

I think Elon is moving closer, which I think is a good thing. But it is not there yet.

BTW: The Chinese are pouring huge amounts of money into every stage of electric vehicle development.

jdb · Post by **jdb** » Wed Jul 10, 2013 8:17 pm

Stan Dup wrote:Again, Tesla does not have any technology that is unique to them; there is nothing magical about them. But, as can be seen on many forums, they have tremendous amounts of goodwill. So did Bernie Madoff.

We, as a global society, will need to change the way our societies are structured for electric vehicles to be a success. We all want them to just be a direct replacement for ICE vehicles. Instead, we will have to adapt our ways to them.

I think Elon is moving closer, which I think is a good thing. But it is not there yet.

BTW: The Chinese are pouring huge amounts of money into every stage of electric vehicle development.

Stan Dup seems to have missed the main point I was trying to communicate. One needs to read the Consumer Reports article about Tesla Model S which gave it 99 out of 100. Then beg or borrow a test drive. It is without a doubt the most exciting new car in past generation. Made by an American company with American technology. We early adopters will probably never buy another ICE vehicle. Looking forward to delivery of the AWD Model X in 2015 and in meantime very glad that within few weeks after delivery last year invested in the company stock after realizing that the car far exceeded expectations. And still does.

matjen · Post by **matjen** » Thu Jul 11, 2013 6:58 am

JDB I have a quick question. In looking at the power consumption chart above I realize how the aero really takes its toll as you increase speed. Chart stops at 70. Not sure of your driving habits or requirements but for me it is not unusual to be going 75-85 for very long stretches when on the highway. Have you noticed what that type of driving does to your range?

Stan Dup · Post by **Stan Dup** » Thu Jul 11, 2013 8:00 am

matjen wrote:JDB I have a quick question. In looking at the power consumption chart above I realize how the aero really takes its toll as you increase speed. Chart stops at 70. Not sure of your driving habits or requirements but for me it is not unusual to be going 75-85 for very long stretches when on the highway. Have you noticed what that type of driving does to your range?

A side note: aerodynamics don't help much until you get above approximately 40-45 mph. That is why the Smart Car is so blunt nosed: it is intended for city driving.

That chart would look even worse if the Tesla was not so aerodynamic.

Stan Dup · Post by **Stan Dup** » Thu Jul 11, 2013 8:02 am

jdb wrote:Stan Dup seems to have missed the main point I was trying to communicate. One needs to read the Consumer Reports article about Tesla Model S which gave it 99 out of 100. Then beg or borrow a test drive. It is without a doubt the most exciting new car in past generation. Made by an American company with American technology. We early adopters will probably never buy another ICE vehicle. Looking forward to delivery of the AWD Model X in 2015 and in meantime very glad that within few weeks after delivery last year invested in the company stock after realizing that the car far exceeded expectations. And still does.

One exciting car does not make a long lasting investment opportunity.

Pete3 · Post by **Pete3** » Thu Jul 11, 2013 8:03 am

Stan Dup wrote:Running the air conditioner consumes about the same amount of energy as it takes to propel the vehicle.

I noticed that this statement was complete discredited yet you did not challenge the data posted by ryuns or issue a correction.

Stan Dup wrote:Tesla does not have any technology that is unique to them; there is nothing magical about them.

The same could have been said about Apple with respect to the iPod or iPhone - nothing magical, just good engineering and a consumer-friendly design. Ended up doing quite well for Apple, eh?

Anyway I think you are really missing the point, this is Tesla's first attempt to make an electric sedan and they hit it out of the park (albeit not cheaply). The range issue may mean it is not suitable for long trips but the vast majority of driving in this country is not long trips. Most families have multiple cars, I'm sure Tesla would be ok with every family having one Tesla and one traditional (ICE) car in the garage.

Thinly veiled attacks with statements like "they have tremendous amounts of goodwill. So did Bernie Madoff." are completely inappropriate unless you are alleging that they are cooking the books in some way. If you want to compare them to previous up and coming tech companies that ended up falling flat on their face, fine, but comparing them to Madoff?

In terms of the stock price, yes it has gone up a lot this year but consider what would have happened if you had asked the same question about buying TSLA when it was up only 100% this year - I bet the same people would have used the same arguments about chasing a hot stock and yet look how much further it has gone since then. Not saying the stock is going to up forever but standing aside because a stock has already had a great gain is not always the smart choice.

Tycoon · Post by **Tycoon** » Thu Jul 11, 2013 8:30 am

An image of cars parked in neighborhood streets and apartment complexes with extension cards running across yards and parking lots pops into my head.

Stan Dup · Post by **Stan Dup** » Thu Jul 11, 2013 8:31 am

Pete3 wrote:I noticed that this statement was complete discredited yet you did not challenge the data posted by ryuns or issue a correction.

You are right, I just did not feel like calling up the battery engineers I work with to get a more exact example. Let's just say it is a substantial penalty. Heating on the other hand is a benefit because the battery system generates it while in use.

Pete3 wrote:

Pete3 wrote:The same could have been said about Apple with respect to the iPod or iPhone - nothing magical, just good engineering and a consumer-friendly design. Ended up doing quite well for Apple, eh?

Yep, I agree.

Pete3 wrote:Anyway I think you are really missing the point, this is Tesla's first attempt to make an electric sedan and they hit it out of the park (albeit not cheaply). The range issue may mean it is not suitable for long trips but the vast majority of driving in this country is not long trips. Most families have multiple cars, I'm sure Tesla would be ok with every family having one Tesla and one traditional (ICE) car in the garage.

This is one type of paradigm shift I was referring to. Everyone would like to have two cars but few can afford to.

Pete3 wrote:Thinly veiled attacks with statements like "they have tremendous amounts of goodwill. So did Bernie Madoff." are completely inappropriate unless you are alleging that they are cooking the books in some way. If you want to compare them to previous up and coming tech companies that ended up falling flat on their face, fine, but comparing them to Madoff?

I meant that excited people can be blind to the realities of the investement situation. This is what John Bogle refers to in his books.

Pete3 wrote:In terms of the stock price, yes it has gone up a lot this year but consider what would have happened if you had asked the same question about buying TSLA when it was up only 100% this year - I bet the same people would have used the same arguments about chasing a hot stock and yet look how much further it has gone since then. Not saying the stock is going to up forever but standing aside because a stock has already had a great gain is not always the smart choice.

Buying individual stocks is gambling, not investing. That is one of the key points of the boglehead philosophy.

I applaud Elon for what he is doing; he is generating excitement and getting people to open their wallets. Early adopters are important. But please realize, modern hybrid-electric vehicles have been around for ten years now. The problem is not the vehicles, it is the consumer. So as investors we need to be aware that the market holds enormous potential but it has very large obstacles to overcome. Even with goverment subsidies these new technology companies are failing (going bankrupt) because the buyers are not lining up. It is not a matter of human will, lots of good people want this to work.

BTW: When looking for investment opportunities in the growing electrification field, keep in mind those who rode the coat tails of the early ICE industry. People like Harvery Firestone (tires) and John D Rockefeller (oil). While everyone bids up the Tesla price, others may have more value.

jdb · Post by **jdb** » Thu Jul 11, 2013 8:46 am

matjen wrote:JDB I have a quick question. In looking at the power consumption chart above I realize how the aero really takes its toll as you increase speed. Chart stops at 70. Not sure of your driving habits or requirements but for me it is not unusual to be going 75-85 for very long stretches when on the highway. Have you noticed what that type of driving does to your range?

Hi Matjen. Good question. Yes, about once a week I do freeway trip of around 150 miles round trip. The Model S begs to go 75 or more on open road with air suspension that lowers suspension at speed, it is only the regenerative braking that starts moment foot is off accelerator that has kept me from tickets. There is a fall off of range at speed especially with sudden acceleration. Car can go from 60 to 90 in less than 3 seconds and that affects range probably more than higher constant speed. My best unscientific guesstimate based on 8 months driving is around 5-7 percent, so with my daily range of about 230 then with freeway driving at speed would get around 215. This is not stop and go freeway but the open road driving. As practical matter my daily slogs never require more than 200 miles before arriving back at refueling station (my garage).

Pete3 · Post by **Pete3** » Thu Jul 11, 2013 8:51 am

Stan Dup wrote:
Pete3 wrote:Anyway I think you are really missing the point, this is Tesla's first attempt to make an electric sedan and they hit it out of the park (albeit not cheaply). The range issue may mean it is not suitable for long trips but the vast majority of driving in this country is not long trips. Most families have multiple cars, I'm sure Tesla would be ok with every family having one Tesla and one traditional (ICE) car in the garage.

This is one type of paradigm shift I was referring to. Everyone would like to have two cars but few can afford to.

Few?

"Study Finds Americans Own 2.28 Vehicles Per Household" http://www.autospies.com/news/Study-Fin ... old-26437/

Experian Automotive found single- and two-vehicle households are almost neck and neck, at nearly 34 percent and 31 percent, respectively.

However, households with three or more vehicles maintain the single largest category, at nearly 35 percent.

sschullo · Post by **sschullo** » Thu Jul 11, 2013 8:54 am

Ranger wrote:http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/09/tesla-nasdaq-idUSL4N0FF0FQ20130709

Tesla Motors to replace Oracle Corp on Nasdaq 100 Index.

Currently the stock has all the momo. If one is desperate to own the stock, best way to own is to sell puts below. Atleast one can capture 85% volatility with put selling.

Tesla has $14 billion in capitalization. When will it be in the 500?

matjen · Post by **matjen** » Thu Jul 11, 2013 8:57 am

Pete3 wrote:
Stan Dup wrote:
Pete3 wrote:Anyway I think you are really missing the point, this is Tesla's first attempt to make an electric sedan and they hit it out of the park (albeit not cheaply). The range issue may mean it is not suitable for long trips but the vast majority of driving in this country is not long trips. Most families have multiple cars, I'm sure Tesla would be ok with every family having one Tesla and one traditional (ICE) car in the garage.

This is one type of paradigm shift I was referring to. Everyone would like to have two cars but few can afford to.

Few? "Study Finds Americans Own 2.28 Vehicles Per Household" http://www.autospies.com/news/Study-Fin ... old-26437/

Experian Automotive found single- and two-vehicle households are almost neck and neck, at nearly 34 percent and 31 percent, respectively.

However, households with three or more vehicles maintain the single largest category, at nearly 35 percent.

Well to be more accurate, what do you think the percentage of families out there have 2 cars and one of those cars is in the 85k-105K range? :moneybag

Post by **prudent** » Thu Jul 11, 2013 9:04 am

I understand why car enthusiasts love the Tesla. It's a cool machine. However, I will be surprised if there are enough people with both the means AND the desire to own one to justify a meaningful increase in sales. Of all my friends and family, only one person has said they would go for an electric car - a man with 4 drivers in the family who could get by with one of their three cars being a short-range machine. Perhaps 2% of all the people I know have EVER spent as much on a car as a Tesla costs.

I have the means but not the desire to pay more than $25,000 on a car. That's all I need to spend to get the type of car I need and want to own. Even if they put little wind turbines on the car so it could recharge itself from wind power as you drive to achieve a zero recharging cost, I still don't think I would spend that kind of money on a car.

The infrastructure and cultural obstacles are immense for this to become more than a niche product. An ICE car that you can drive anywhere, any time, for any distance with zero fear of being able to fully refuel in minutes at will is a tough bar to overcome.

Pete3 · Post by **Pete3** » Thu Jul 11, 2013 9:08 am

matjen wrote:
Pete3 wrote:
Stan Dup wrote:
Pete3 wrote:Anyway I think you are really missing the point, this is Tesla's first attempt to make an electric sedan and they hit it out of the park (albeit not cheaply). The range issue may mean it is not suitable for long trips but the vast majority of driving in this country is not long trips. Most families have multiple cars, I'm sure Tesla would be ok with every family having one Tesla and one traditional (ICE) car in the garage.

This is one type of paradigm shift I was referring to. Everyone would like to have two cars but few can afford to.

Few? "Study Finds Americans Own 2.28 Vehicles Per Household" http://www.autospies.com/news/Study-Fin ... old-26437/

Experian Automotive found single- and two-vehicle households are almost neck and neck, at nearly 34 percent and 31 percent, respectively.

However, households with three or more vehicles maintain the single largest category, at nearly 35 percent.

Well to be more accurate, what do you think the percentage of families out there have 2 cars and one of those cars is in the 85k-105K range?

Agreed, Tesla's high price puts it out of reach of most families - my point was that since most households have at least 2 cars already, having one EV (not necessarily a Tesla) and one conventional or hybrid vehicle for those rare long-trips is reasonable and does not require a paradigm shift.

matjen · Post by **matjen** » Thu Jul 11, 2013 9:18 am

jdb wrote:
matjen wrote:JDB I have a quick question. In looking at the power consumption chart above I realize how the aero really takes its toll as you increase speed. Chart stops at 70. Not sure of your driving habits or requirements but for me it is not unusual to be going 75-85 for very long stretches when on the highway. Have you noticed what that type of driving does to your range?

Hi Matjen. Good question. Yes, about once a week I do freeway trip of around 150 miles round trip. The Model S begs to go 75 or more on open road with air suspension that lowers suspension at speed, it is only the regenerative braking that starts moment foot is off accelerator that has kept me from tickets. There is a fall off of range at speed especially with sudden acceleration. Car can go from 60 to 90 in less than 3 seconds and that affects range probably more than higher constant speed. My best unscientific guesstimate based on 8 months driving is around 5-7 percent, so with my daily range of about 230 then with freeway driving at speed would get around 215. This is not stop and go freeway but the open road driving. As practical matter my daily slogs never require more than 200 miles before arriving back at refueling station (my garage).

Thanks JDB. The Model S intrigues me because it appears to have a nice combo of being cool (early adopter battery, touchscreens, etc.), actually practical from a space and functionality perspective for this type of car, and fast/fun to drive. I would love to see some camparos by the car magazines between it and say an Audi S7 and a Porsche Panamera. If I was an editor I would be getting that type of article together.