GDP

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Ed 2
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GDP

Post by Ed 2 » Fri Apr 26, 2013 7:39 am

Given my low economic education compare to others. )))Please help me to understand how the Smarty's predicted 3%+???? I even expected lower GDP past quarter given higher payroll-taxes,higher gas prices and so on. Are they [smarty's] flying in the sky's?:twisted:
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel

Sidney
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Re: GDP

Post by Sidney » Fri Apr 26, 2013 7:42 am

.huh?
I always wanted to be a procrastinator.

richard
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Re: GDP

Post by richard » Fri Apr 26, 2013 7:46 am

Prediction is difficult and the numbers are often revised.

Inflation is well below the Fed's target - PCE was 1.2% v 2%. Cuts in government spending subtracted 0.8% from GDP. Consumer spending was up.

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bottlecap
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Re: GDP

Post by bottlecap » Fri Apr 26, 2013 7:46 am

GDP is essentially a measure of spending, whether it be on consumption, investment or government spending. Plug in different numbers, get different results. Even with a number as simple as that, there are no "smartys".

JT

hsv_climber
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Re: GDP

Post by hsv_climber » Fri Apr 26, 2013 9:08 am

Ed 2 wrote:Given my low economic education compare to others. )))Please help me to understand how the Smarty's predicted 3%+???? I even expected lower GDP past quarter given higher payroll-taxes,higher gas prices and so on. Are they [smarty's] flying in the sky's?:twisted:
It might be counter-intuitive, but higher gas prices contributed to higher consumer spending, which has lead to higher GDP number.
Last edited by hsv_climber on Fri Apr 26, 2013 9:09 am, edited 1 time in total.

hsv_climber
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Re: GDP

Post by hsv_climber » Fri Apr 26, 2013 9:09 am

Here is a "more important number" from the report:
Final sales of U.S.-made goods and services, a more precise gauge of demand, rose a much smaller 1.5%. That matched the lowest increase in eight quarters.

Ed 2
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Re: GDP

Post by Ed 2 » Fri Apr 26, 2013 10:24 am

hsv_climber wrote:
Ed 2 wrote:Given my low economic education compare to others. )))Please help me to understand how the Smarty's predicted 3%+???? I even expected lower GDP past quarter given higher payroll-taxes,higher gas prices and so on. Are they [smarty's] flying in the sky's?:twisted:
It might be counter-intuitive, but higher gas prices contributed to higher consumer spending, which has lead to higher GDP number.
Forgive me for my ignorance, but is it true that higher gasoline prices may live less discretionary spending? Is it a soared of an extra tax on consumer? There for is it [gasoline prices] a significant drag on economy growth?
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel

kmok
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Re: GDP

Post by kmok » Fri Apr 26, 2013 10:33 am

hsv_climber wrote:
Ed 2 wrote:Given my low economic education compare to others. )))Please help me to understand how the Smarty's predicted 3%+???? I even expected lower GDP past quarter given higher payroll-taxes,higher gas prices and so on. Are they [smarty's] flying in the sky's?:twisted:
It might be counter-intuitive, but higher gas prices contributed to higher consumer spending, which has lead to higher GDP number.
Higher gas price lead to higher nominal GDP, not higher real GDP. Most people don't look at nominal GDP. They look at real GDP.

hsv_climber
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Re: GDP

Post by hsv_climber » Fri Apr 26, 2013 10:49 am

Ed 2 wrote: Forgive me for my ignorance, but is it true that higher gasoline prices may live less discretionary spending? Is it a soared of an extra tax on consumer? There for is it [gasoline prices] a significant drag on economy growth?
Sure, it is a tax on consumer. But we are not talking about consumer, we are talking about GDP. Consumer can suffer while GDP can grow double digits. China has proven that it can easily be done :-). There are multiple studies with various results on correlation between higher oil prices & GDP. But, at least in the short term, high gas prices seem to force consumers to spend more of their savings; thus, increasing goods & services sold by the economy, which is, by definition, leads to higher GDP.

BTW, one of the main reason why GDP was relatively high is probably because of what richard wrote: very low inflation. Nominal growth was nearly equivalent to real growth.

Ed 2
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Re: GDP

Post by Ed 2 » Fri Apr 26, 2013 11:07 am

Thank you for reply. But we are not China, we are consumer oriented Country, China is not. Even China's GDP is slowed a lot already (I even have many doubhts about China's official numbers).
But your analysys maybe make sence somewhat.
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel

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Re: GDP

Post by LadyGeek » Fri Apr 26, 2013 4:51 pm

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