Taking Some off the Table?

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BigD53
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Re: Taking Some off the Table?

Post by BigD53 »

I spend more than $485 a month on pizza.
Default User BR
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Re: Taking Some off the Table?

Post by Default User BR »

BigD53 wrote:I spend more than $485 a month on pizza.
That's a lot of pizza. That's probably close to a pie a day average.


Brian
mikem
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Re: Taking Some off the Table?

Post by mikem »

john94549 wrote:Chris, I am going to ruminate as to my re-investing options. For now, I must admit, $485 is but a rounding error. However, I do get a "feel good" buzz knowing I "made more" in VFSTX than I would have in VMMXX.

It's not retirement-threatening, one way or the other. In any given day, my wife and I go up or down five or ten thousand dollars.

But I keep score.
OP must have a substantial sum in the market. I suspect 30K is pocket change.
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Kevin M
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Re: Taking Some off the Table?

Post by Kevin M »

john94549 wrote:Abuss, the S+P 5000 is over 11% YTD. Divide 1400 by 1260. It's not rocket-science, and it's not sustainable.
How do you know this? If you really knew it, then why didn't you take it all off the table?

I don't have a problem with what you did if that's your strategy for rebalancing (and I don't have a problem with the phrase "taking some off the table"). However, I think the evidence is clear that doing so because you think you can predict the future is unlikely to work out in the long run.

Kevin
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grayfox
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Re: Taking Some off the Table?

Post by grayfox »

john94549 wrote:I understand "stay-the-course" folks will hoot me down, but it does seem this market is tired.

I booked some profits lately. Up over 11% YTD seems a bit unsustainable.

You folks have fun. Think I'll whack off my gains and plop into cash for now.
Congrats on +11% YTD return. I suspect everyone is positive YTD. I'm up just +6.44%, after taking withdrawal. I have mostly bond funds.

This prompted me to look at YTD returns for Vanguard funds

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... torder=asc

Holy Cow! Tons of stock funds have double-digit YTD returns.

Fund YTD SEC-Yield

REIT +18.73% 2.15%
TSM +16.07% 2.06%
TR2025 +11.25% 2.11%
VGPMX -13.74% -

The only VG fund with negative YTD is Precious Metals & Mining (VGPMX). What's up with that?

But with big returns, all from price increases, the yields and expected returns get smaller and smaller.

Maybe taking off the table is not a bad idea. OTOH, Bernanke is talking about more QE and I think EU central bank will be doing similar things, prices may just keep going up. Ride the new expanding asset bubble.
Last edited by grayfox on Mon Sep 10, 2012 2:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
NYBoglehead
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Re: Taking Some off the Table?

Post by NYBoglehead »

Taking some off the table also depends on how old you are and how large your portfolio is. If you're 60 and have a 7 figure portfolio, moving some money into cash after being up 10% for the year means putting aside $100,000. That might be enough to fund 2 years worth of retirement. Those of us with much longer to go before retirement would be wise to ride out the market ups and downs. I do not care if the market goes down a little bit, it will not make any difference to be over the long haul. If you take money out when do you put it back in? IMO, the only time it makes sense to take some money off the table (rebalancing would be more appropriate) is if you are in/near retirement and have no plans to convert the cash back to shares later on.
livesoft
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Re: Taking Some off the Table?

Post by livesoft »

I rebalanced a little bit this morning. :)
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hoops777
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Re: Taking Some off the Table?

Post by hoops777 »

I really do not see the big problem some people have because someone takes some money or profits off the table.If you have a piece of your portfolio that has done really well and you are happy with the money you made there is nothing wrong with selling it.Sometimes we forget that all those profits you see on your statement are not really profits until you sell.That 100k profit you are so happy with could turn into a 25k loss in a blink of an eye.
A profit is a profit,especially in a non-taxable account.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.
linenfort
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Re: Taking Some off the Table?

Post by linenfort »

I know this looks like piling on, but I'll be the first to admit it could all come crashing down tomorrow, below the OP's sell point.
Still-
A rally on Wall Street sent stocks to fresh multiyear highs as investors welcomed the Federal Reserve's new bond-buying plan.

The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 207 points, or 1.6%, while the Nasdaq rose 1.3% and the S&P 500 gained 1.6%.

The day's gains pushed the Dow and S&P 500 to their highest closing levels since December 2007, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq finished at its highest level since November 2000.
-cnn, 13 Sept '12
Sam I Am
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Re: Taking Some off the Table?

Post by Sam I Am »

Message deleted.
Last edited by Sam I Am on Tue Oct 08, 2013 9:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
gkaplan
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Re: Taking Some off the Table?

Post by gkaplan »

Where's the OP?
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Momus
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Re: Taking Some off the Table?

Post by Momus »

Like they say, losers (market timers) sit quietly in the background. They only boast when they get lucky.
Last edited by Momus on Fri Sep 14, 2012 1:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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bengal22
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Re: Taking Some off the Table?

Post by bengal22 »

linenfort wrote:
livesoft wrote:Well, around here we don't say "taking some off the table"; instead we say "I rebalanced the other day". The first phrase is met with skeptically raised eyebrows. The second phrase gets an all-knowing nod of approval.
...
So true. Made me laugh! :happy
However, the big difference is that when you "rebalance" you are staying true to your financial plan(AA) and when you "take some off the table" you are trying to quess if the market is going up or down. The former is a winner's game while the latter is a loser's game. There really is a big difference.
"Earn All You Can; Give All You Can; Save All You Can." .... John Wesley
The Wizard
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Re: Taking Some off the Table?

Post by The Wizard »

bengal22 wrote: However, the big difference is that when you "rebalance" you are staying true to your financial plan(AA) and when you "take some off the table" you are trying to quess if the market is going up or down. The former is a winner's game while the latter is a loser's game. There really is a big difference.
Sometimes I think those gambling mentality folks take way more than a modest rebalancing percentage "off the table".

In a different forum, someone noted that a certain stock fund was already up 15% for the year so far. He didn't want to be greedy, so he was going to move it to cash or bonds, I forget.
Thing is, we NEED a few +30% years now & then to make up for the crash years. Greed has nothing to do with it...
Attempted new signature...
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john94549
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Re: Taking Some off the Table?

Post by john94549 »

I guess I sowed some seeds of confusion. What I took off was my net long position in my trading account. Aside from that modest profit-taking in VFSTX (still in VMMXX for now), haven't touched a thing. I don't plan to re-balance my "age-in-bonds" retirement accounts until next February. My trading account is up a smidge over 11% YTD, and I fully acknowledge that, had I maintained my (prior) net long position, it would be up a tad more. But I was (and still am) quite content to ride that 11% gain for now.

I really am quite dull and boring when it comes to my core retirement accounts. Aside from the one-off VFSTX trade noted, I keep my gambling urges confined to my "fun money" trading account. It's a SEP-IRA, so I don't have to keep track of stuff for taxes.

Good fortune to all.
livesoft
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Re: Taking Some off the Table?

Post by livesoft »

Yep, VFSTX to VMMXX is no big deal and really not worth mentioning.
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hoops777
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Re: Taking Some off the Table?

Post by hoops777 »

Taking some profits is not necessarily market timing.There is also a big difference between a profit on paper and a profit in your pocket.Sometimes you might want to put the real money in the bank.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.
Easy Rhino
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Re: Taking Some off the Table?

Post by Easy Rhino »

I thought this article from Money Mag (via fidelity) was (almost) timely:

https://news.fidelity.com/news/article. ... -off-table
Jack
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Re: Taking Some off the Table?

Post by Jack »

BigD53 wrote:I spend more than $485 a month on pizza.
So you are saying you took some off the table?
BYUvol
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Re: Taking Some off the Table?

Post by BYUvol »

Easy Rhino wrote:I thought this article from Money Mag (via fidelity) was (almost) timely:

https://news.fidelity.com/news/article. ... -off-table
Thanks for sharing that! This part actually helped me conceptualize this:
So you haven't really taken anything "off the table." All you've done is move $10,000 to a different place on the table.
Its better to adjust your allocation to less equities when they are doing well, rather than after they have performed poorly, so who's to say its wrong in all circumstances, as long as you realize what exactly you are doing.
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