Search found 34549 matches

by Valuethinker
Sun Jul 01, 2018 9:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 6 hour layover on Heathrow
Replies: 54
Views: 4740

Re: 6 hour layover on Heathrow

OP has 6 hours and 2 hours will be taken up clearing customs and getting to central London. Then should be back w 2 hours to spare. London transport is both highly crowded and erratic. Things go wrong. We are to welcome your President w a Tube strike (for unrelated reasons ). It's certainly not wort...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jun 30, 2018 7:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 6 hour layover on Heathrow
Replies: 54
Views: 4740

Re: 6 hour layover on Heathrow

With four hours last year, I went through immigration to take a shower and change clothes in the LHR Sofitel. I was connecting on to Europe from the US, and it was great to arrive freshened-up in my destination. On the return, I had ~20 hours and enjoyed a bit of sightseeing in London with the fami...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jun 30, 2018 7:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 6 hour layover on Heathrow
Replies: 54
Views: 4740

Re: 6 hour layover on Heathrow

If you had a six hour layover in Heathrow and wanted to visit a few sights, what would top your list? We’re thinking Tower Bridge, maybe the British Museum. Family of 4, old enough to walk without whining. Appreciate any insights. You will be very tight for time. There have been 2.5 hour queues at ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jun 30, 2018 5:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are you learning or studying?
Replies: 92
Views: 5997

Re: What are you learning or studying?

I am a more than a little hesitant about posting what I am trying to learn, because some Forum members will derisively be calling 'Bravo Sierra" on me. Oh, well. In any case, for the past year and a half, I have been studying the mathematical foundations of both Quantum Mechanics and General Relati...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jun 30, 2018 4:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory
Replies: 52
Views: 7063

Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

I sold all my emerging last year after holding them for 20+ years. In the last couple years I travelled to a lot of them and experienced first hand corruption, lack of transparency and lack of rules thats conducive to investing. I became very pessimistic. I don’t believe in emerging anymore. In fac...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jun 30, 2018 4:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: hybrid or plug-in electric car
Replies: 70
Views: 3721

Re: hybrid or plug-in electric car

20 years may be optimistic. Solar panels rarely pay off. Just ordered a 2019 Fusion Energi, missed 2018 end of production. I think solar panels do pay off but it really depends on your electricity rate and your net metering rate (payment from the grid). It's not possible to make a general assertion...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jun 30, 2018 4:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History of the S&P500
Replies: 5
Views: 952

Re: History of the S&P500

Folks this is an amazing thread.

I know the other Bernstein wrote a book which covered this early history but it is still great to get it here.

Thank you.
by Valuethinker
Sat Jun 30, 2018 4:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feel like I'm sinking money into international
Replies: 100
Views: 10700

Re: Feel like I'm sinking money into international

I must say it is slightly worrying that since 2007, international has not even outperformed intermediate term treasuries. Any idea why that is? Oh, and I am from Europe so no home country bias here. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=2&startYear=2007&endYea...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 29, 2018 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard 500 over Vanguard Total (US) Stock Market
Replies: 45
Views: 4972

Re: Vanguard 500 over Vanguard Total (US) Stock Market

More good stuff on longevity of companies: https://www.innosight.com/insight/creative-destruction/ https://www.inc.com/ilan-mochari/innosight-sp-500-new-companies.html Here are two of the report's most significant insights: In 1965, the average tenure of companies on the S&P 500 was 33 years. By 199...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 29, 2018 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1/CAPE10 at the extremes
Replies: 23
Views: 1992

Re: 1/CAPE10 at the extremes

The limited information I've seen on international CAPE is that some countries went well beyond 40 -- and the corresponding returns were actually negative. There is no value of 1/CAPE that would mimic that result, since even 1/infinity is still positive. I think you're alluding at Japan here. I agr...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 29, 2018 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard 500 over Vanguard Total (US) Stock Market
Replies: 45
Views: 4972

Re: Vanguard 500 over Vanguard Total (US) Stock Market

That's your take of it, and I beg to differ. In my view, even in the case when the markets are perfectly efficient, given the fact that the market has an infinite time horizon, the small cap universe and the large cap universe should have the same expected returns. Many small caps would burn down a...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 29, 2018 5:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how often does high ACT score == scholarship?
Replies: 102
Views: 9728

Re: how often does high ACT score == scholarship?

When doing the college touring and also attending college admissions seminars, something stuck with me: Expensive private colleges are selective with who they give money to, but they have all the money. Public colleges qualify everyone to get money, but they don't have any money. Better than a high...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 29, 2018 5:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing small amounts
Replies: 30
Views: 2228

Re: Investing small amounts

If there was anything "safe" where I can get like a 5% return without having to worry about a huge drop in value, that would be great. Yeah, and when you find it, let the rest of us know.... Dude, I've only skimmed the posts after the OP, but it sounds like you're playing pretty close to the line. ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 29, 2018 5:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to shift from 70% to 75% stock
Replies: 8
Views: 802

Re: How to shift from 70% to 75% stock

Hi, I'm 35 and on 70/30 stock/bond. I think they may be a bit too conservative for my age? Couple questions: 1) Should I consider 75/25 or 80/20? 2) How long would the transition take? Should I up the stock allocation slowly over time (if so, how long) or change the allocation all at once? The actu...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 29, 2018 4:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3124
Views: 954618

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Red Moon Rising by Matthew Brzezinski. The story of Sergi Korolev and the Soviet Union's rocket programme and the ICBM and space race. Very good. I should read this one. Stephen Zaloga has a fairly technical history of Soviet nuclear missiles, based on his ability to read Russian - the different De...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 29, 2018 4:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3124
Views: 954618

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

After watching the excellent Steven Spielberg film, The Post , some months ago, I got curious about how close it played to the real events. So I re-read Katharine Graham's book, Personal History , and then the Pentagon Papers section in the book, Ben Bradlee: A Good Life , and thought it was close ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 29, 2018 4:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3124
Views: 954618

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

jebmke wrote:
Thu Jun 28, 2018 8:15 pm
A Man Without Breath by Philip Kerr. Part of the Bernie Gunther series.
And unfortunately we just lost him.

No more Bernie Gunther. It's a bit like losing Wallender (Henning Mankell) - something has gone out of the world.
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heavy in equities?
Replies: 46
Views: 4680

Re: Heavy in equities?

That’s the psychology of someone with a very low withdrawal rate. He stressed tested his stock allocation by selling it to zero and concluded no-problema. He obviously can spend more but simply chooses not to. He has no need to believe in theories about equity investing or in the predictive power o...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 29, 2018 2:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How to invest without regret" - Daniel Kahneman
Replies: 20
Views: 2690

Re: "How to invest without regret" - Daniel Kahneman

I used to do something like this back when I was teaching and contributing to TIAA-CREF. You only had two choices then: TIAA traditional, and CREF stock. So, I put 50% in each. Psychologically, they seemed like two different retirement accounts. TIAA was safe and conservative like a bank CD, and CR...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 29, 2018 2:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for a beginner investor in Germany
Replies: 22
Views: 1750

Re: Help for a beginner investor in Germany

Portfolio allocation is more or less universal theme But what are the differences in investing in Vanguard funds vs normal ETFs? Did you check on taxes and comissions? For instance: Can you hold ETFs without any custodian comission in Europe? This seems to vary by country, and account. Do ETFs have...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 29, 2018 2:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Friend Asked Me - Ponzi or Not? [1st position commercial mortgage notes]
Replies: 40
Views: 8005

Re: A Friend Asked Me - Ponzi or Not? [1st position commercial mortgage notes]

focusedonwhatmatters wrote:
Thu Jun 28, 2018 3:46 pm
Could someone please copy/paste this article? Have a friend who bought Woodbridge and neither of us have WSJ subscriptions.

Thanks in advance!

fowm
Hi

That would violate the copyright rules that this Forum adheres to.

You need to find a friend who has a subscription. Or check a library?
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 28, 2018 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard 500 over Vanguard Total (US) Stock Market
Replies: 45
Views: 4972

Re: Vanguard 500 over Vanguard Total (US) Stock Market

Not sure what this even means. You hold them in market weights. So a person that owns just an industry that outperforms in the next ten years will outperform the market. The reason I hold the index is because I don't know which will outperform, so the market's guess is as good as any. Secondly, the...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 28, 2018 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard 500 over Vanguard Total (US) Stock Market
Replies: 45
Views: 4972

Re: Vanguard 500 over Vanguard Total (US) Stock Market

Efficient market theory would suggest that these are risk factors in stocks outside the S&P 500, which you are rewarded for as an investor. So either: - markets are not efficient - they aren't really risks so you are not rewarded for them - you are rewarded for them, but there are also risks in the...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 28, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History of Protectionism and Stock Returns, 1825-2015
Replies: 19
Views: 2064

Re: History of Protectionism and Stock Returns, 1825-2015

Your thoughts? Well SimpleGift, since you asked: My thoughts are that you did not disappoint . :sharebeer I also think the impact of tariffs to returns in the example you showed below seems muted. In a time of rising tariffs (starting circa 1930) and high tariffs, globalization still managed a 50% ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 28, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History of Protectionism and Stock Returns, 1825-2015
Replies: 19
Views: 2064

Re: History of Protectionism and Stock Returns, 1825-2015

If I recall correctly, Adam Smith cited tariffs extensively in The Wealth of Nations -- perhaps there may be some data that support his conclusions. It took him a long time (decades, I think) to write that book, he must have done a fair amount of research. And it was the United States in the 19th a...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 28, 2018 6:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks vs. rental property
Replies: 101
Views: 9650

Re: Stocks vs. rental property

There's nothing wrong with real estate ... But please stop using San Francisco Bay Area examples when you guys have no idea what it's like there. For example, guessing that you can get $8K-$10K/mo rent on a 1.5M house when the real number is $5K-$6K/mo. And stop assuming you COULD have bought back ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 28, 2018 6:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks vs. rental property
Replies: 101
Views: 9650

Re: Stocks vs. rental property

In 2013, we came into some extra money. We always wanted to have rental property. I'm a very handy person and love to tinker/build/fix things. Over the past 5 years....we've bought 4 rentals....some in really bad shape, some not so bad. It's definitely a business. If you want to make money, you mak...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks vs. rental property
Replies: 101
Views: 9650

Re: Stocks vs. rental property

There's nothing wrong with real estate ... But please stop using San Francisco Bay Area examples when you guys have no idea what it's like there. For example, guessing that you can get $8K-$10K/mo rent on a 1.5M house when the real number is $5K-$6K/mo. And stop assuming you COULD have bought back ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When does purchasing equities lose its marginal utility?
Replies: 48
Views: 2486

Re: When does purchasing equities lose its marginal utility?

Coincidently, I was just talking to our company-provided financial advisor, and this came up. He is a believer in always buying more equities. His personal plan is to have a rolling ladder of 3 year CDs, FDIC insured, amounting to 3 years of his expenses. Everything else goes into equities, where a...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P&i: some see commodity funds ready to heat up
Replies: 6
Views: 571

Re: P&i: some see commodity funds ready to heat up

> backwardation Whats that. Commodities are cheap right now. How cheap are you waiting for them to go? Is that price point not sufficient to trigger your buy? The discussion of backwardation and contango is important to understanding what the sources of returns are from commodities for financial in...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 28, 2018 3:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CNBC: Social Security buying power has slipped by a third for retirees
Replies: 95
Views: 6858

Re: CNBC: Social Security buying power has slipped by a third for retirees

HAH! Another reason for delaying social security as long as possible -- less time for inflation to screw you! Now I would take exactly the opposite approach. Take SS at the first opportunity. Get your money before inflation erodes its value. That much ballyhooed 8% per year of delay loses a lot of ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Not sure where to invest (UK Investor)
Replies: 5
Views: 655

Re: Not sure where to invest

MoominLa - I would suggest you edit the title of your thread to include "UK investor" - that way our UK knowledgeable Bogleheads can more easily spot your thread to give you opinions. Thanks for the suggestion, have edited! The complex issue is you are UK resident for HMRC, and when does that end? ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 27, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Not sure where to invest (UK Investor)
Replies: 5
Views: 655

Re: Not sure where to invest (UK Investor)

Hello everyone. I am new to this forum and investing in general. Though I am making my way through some investment books and trying to educate myself, I decided not to waste more time over-thinking and put the little money I had to invest (£1500) into Vanguard Lifestrategy Funds through their UK si...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When does purchasing equities lose its marginal utility?
Replies: 48
Views: 2486

Re: When does purchasing equities lose its marginal utility?

If you have no interest in how large a legacy you are leaving and are confident you already have enough to last for the remainder of your life and fund your lifestyle at what point does investing in additional equities lose its marginal utility. Is it 35 years before death, 30, 20, 10 or never? You...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 3 nights in Vegas
Replies: 49
Views: 3302

Re: 3 nights in Vegas

I plan to go to Vegas with my wife on July 1st - reaching late night and starting back on 4th night 10 PM. So about 3 night and 3 days. What can I do in this time frame to best utilize my time? Do I need a car in Vegas or public transport is best way? Thank you in advance!! If you plan to gamble, p...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 27, 2018 5:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard 500 over Vanguard Total (US) Stock Market
Replies: 45
Views: 4972

Re: Vanguard 500 over Vanguard Total (US) Stock Market

I see many people use the total stock market fund to gain US equity exposure. I prefer the Vanguard 500 index which tracks the S&P 500 index instead. Here are my reasons: 1. The S&P 500 companies are among the largest, most mature, most profitable (in terms of return on equity) and most stable out ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: MBA Options
Replies: 44
Views: 3966

Re: MBA Options

Hello Everybody, For anybody who has/is around people with MBAs I have a question. I recently was admitted to 2 MBA programs and a 3rd is pending, I'm asking some advice on where to go: School #1: Accepted American University Online Cost: 89K MBA rank: 79 Part-Time MBA rank: 172 School#2: Accepted ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks vs. rental property
Replies: 101
Views: 9650

Re: Stocks vs. rental property

Second, I totally agree with you. Coastal markets, around the world, have delivered superior real estate returns for literally several THOUSAND years of human history, for obvious reasons. 1. if you go along the East Coast of England, you have the Saxon Shore. Fortresses built in late Roman times t...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jun 26, 2018 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Now With Down 2018 Market
Replies: 32
Views: 6216

Re: What Now With Down 2018 Market

Given my older age of 78 and still employed I have been very cautious about placing too much of my funds in the market . In January, I invested in theVanguard Retirement Income Fund that has been down for most of the year and now slightly up. Given the drastic and somewhat unexplainable shifts in t...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jun 26, 2018 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Balance Funds
Replies: 3
Views: 855

Re: Vanguard's Balance Funds

How much of an impact or headwind will high duration bond allocations have on these funds. It's not possible to predict. Depends if the forward yield curve, the market's best guess at future interest rate rises, is correct or not. The volatility of the bond part of the portfolio against rising inte...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jun 26, 2018 5:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thoughts on Canadian Universities [Dual US / Canadian citizen]
Replies: 33
Views: 1820

Re: Thoughts on Canadian Universities [Dual US / Canadian citizen]

There are a lot of kids I know in the Bay Area who are at UBC. Reputationally, UBC seems to be in the same league as large US state universities (I know dual-citizen kids who have got into U of California campuses, but have preferred to go to UBC). If your daughter has any interest in Business or c...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jun 26, 2018 2:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for a beginner investor in Germany
Replies: 22
Views: 1750

Re: Help for a beginner investor in Germany

The absolute simplest portfolio would be Vanguard FTSE All World etf and iShares Global Aggregate Euro hedged bonds etf. You may end up with a bit more complex portfolio if you go after etfs that German brokers offer in saving plans. Consorsbank offers a saving plan with the Vanguard all world etf ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jun 26, 2018 2:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying Audi 6 in Germany
Replies: 9
Views: 1490

Re: Buying Audi 6 in Germany

I think if one wants a new German car, in the USA, one would be well advised to buy it promptly? Now, like? A punitive tariff is likely to be slapped on European cars imported into the USA and as that, as I understand it, does not require a legislative vote, it could happen any day now. Value of use...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 25, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks vs. rental property
Replies: 101
Views: 9650

Re: Stocks vs. rental property

In the hands of an established real estate investor, $1 mill could probably fetch $100k in annual cash flow, plus have annual price appreciation and rent increases, plus have other people manage the properties. Heck, there are lots of assets that could get you to retirement today on $1 mill. But, i...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 25, 2018 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks vs. rental property
Replies: 101
Views: 9650

Re: Stocks vs. rental property

Dear experts, I was wondering if you think investing (say 1 million dollars for example) in rental property may be better than stocks and bonds? Because rental property would provide appreciation as well as monthly incoming though there is always the pain of not being able to find tenants? Or shoul...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 25, 2018 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small company effect is overstated due to flawed dataset
Replies: 12
Views: 1653

Re: Small company effect is overstated due to flawed dataset

If the "Small Company Effect" and "premium" are really robust, they should work in Canada too. Let's look: Source: Portfolio Visualizer Portfolio 1 ( blue ): iShares Core S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF (XIC) Portfolio 2 ( red ): iShares S&P/TSX SmallCap Index ETF (XCS) The time period was autom...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 25, 2018 3:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Garage refrigerator
Replies: 22
Views: 2715

Re: Garage refrigerator

We just got rid of the garage refrigerator that came with our house. It wasn’t staying consistently cold and we think it was an electricity hog. It was about 27 years old. We want to replace it, but have had several people tell us we need a refrigerator specifically made for garages.. the Whirlpool...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 25, 2018 3:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thoughts on Canadian Universities [Dual US / Canadian citizen]
Replies: 33
Views: 1820

Re: Thoughts on Canadian Universities [Dual US / Canadian citizen]

This may not apply to your daughter. Two of my wife’s cousins graduated from UBC CS program. They didn’t have problem getting very desirable jobs in the US. One used to work for Microsoft, and the other one is working for Apple. McGill seems to be very well known in the US, especially on the US eas...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 25, 2018 2:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 28 year old investor [Australia]
Replies: 17
Views: 1108

Re: 28 year old investor [Australia]

While I don't advocate a large overweight to Australian shares (and don't do it with my own Australian investments), a contrary opinion is that your 25% weighting to Australian shares is not outside the realm of what other reasonable Australian investors do. Vanguard's Australian lifestrategy balan...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 25, 2018 2:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Indexing in Australia
Replies: 2
Views: 258

Re: Indexing in Australia

I have relatives in Australia. I discussed with them about indexing. They are interested to learn more, but I have no idea on how to show them. I did a quick search here and still did not get a concrete recommendation on how to do a 3-fund indexing for Australia. I read here that Australia indexing...