Search found 35513 matches

by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate investing - leveraging with a "BULLET" loan
Replies: 17
Views: 1285

Re: Real Estate investing - leveraging with a "BULLET" loan

If you are expecting a 3 - 4.5% return on the outline of your property investment plan above, you are not being rewarded for the risk involved. This is the other side of the risk / reward coin. Same thing. There is nothing that peculiar about the Belgian market that changes this. What makes you say...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contrarian investors vs. EMH/GMP
Replies: 21
Views: 1210

Re: Contrarian investors vs. EMH/GMP

First, the are 3 different types of rebalancing techniques: Convex, Buy-and-Hold (which is really about not rebalancing), and Concave. They are a little like rock, paper, scissors - none of them are a dominate technique. Each one wins in different market scenarios. Constant-Mix (A concave strategy)...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Charles Murray's and Jordan Peterson's book
Replies: 17
Views: 1326

Re: Charles Murray's and Jordan Peterson's book

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/2018/05/25/i-was-jordan-petersons-strongest-supporter-now-i-think-hes-dangerous.html worth reading. By the department head who got him into the University of Toronto, and now regrets it. I thought long and hard before writing about Jordan, and I do not do this lightly...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Charles Murray's and Jordan Peterson's book
Replies: 17
Views: 1326

Re: Charles Murray's and Jordan Peterson's book

If you want this kind of stuff can I recommend: - reading Nietsche. No he's not easy, but you will find exactly the same ideas (much better said) - read Viktor Frankel " Man's Search for Meaning ". Now there is a book about existential integrity - about being true to that for which you were made - A...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 04, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contrarian investors vs. EMH/GMP
Replies: 21
Views: 1210

Re: Contrarian investors vs. EMH/GMP

Back to your original question. Have you read "The Big Short", or seen the movie? If so, would you have the courage to go against conventional wisdom for years - suffering losses all along the way - to hit that grand slam? Next, read up on William Ackman's short sell against Herbalife. There was a ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 04, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contrarian investors vs. EMH/GMP
Replies: 21
Views: 1210

Re: Contrarian investors vs. EMH/GMP

I've got two competing worldviews wrt investing. They seem mutually exclusive, but they both seem like they should be right. #1) The Global Market Portfolio (GMP) is the world's largest Prediction Market. Prices reflect all available information to all investors. No single investor can be expected ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 04, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it Really This Hard? (ACB, Annual Return, ETC)
Replies: 6
Views: 427

Re: Is it Really This Hard? (ACB, Annual Return, ETC)

I've been trying to find the best solution for tracking investments. There seems to be a lot of questions about automatically reinvesting dividends, and a common answer is that it tends to make calculations and tracking oto difficult. Surely there is software or a spreadsheet somewhere that can tak...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why TIPS only for unexpected inflation?
Replies: 27
Views: 2556

Re: Why tips only for unexpected inflation?

I was reading up on stagflation and it is apparently caused by a sudden economic shock, like the trade war over oil in the 1970s. I wasn't aware that economists (not that they really know anything for sure anyway) had come to a consensus on the causes of stagflation. Perhaps you can cite your sourc...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why TIPS only for unexpected inflation?
Replies: 27
Views: 2556

Re: Why tips only for unexpected inflation?

I was reading up on stagflation and it is apparently caused by a sudden economic shock, like the trade war over oil in the 1970s. I would not call oil a "trade war". Normally a trade war is about a country impeding imports from another country, not about restricting its exports. There was an embarg...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1185
Views: 97917

Re: Our International Allocation?

There is quite a bit of evidence in predictions that the average of the predictions by various experts outperforms, on average, the guess of any one. So that is not clear. That's how I understand the ideas that market prices are about right (as in EMH), because they incorporate the views and decisi...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1185
Views: 97917

Re: Our International Allocation?

Why is it unnecessary for Americans, but not Japanese or Danish investors, to hold stocks from foreign markets? It can't be a question of size of the market, since Japan got to be nearly half of the world by market cap at one point. So what is the reason for the exception in the case of the US? Tha...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1185
Views: 97917

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I'm not sure the US vs International argument is really about "US vs International" at this point. It has turned into "Big Tech heavy" (US) vs "More balanced sector allocation". VTI now holds over 20% of assets in the "Technology" sector, and its top 5 holdings are: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphab...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1185
Views: 97917

Re: Our International Allocation?

For U.S. investors, Taylor suggests that 20% of the equity allocation should be placed in a Total International Stock Index Fund. That suggested 20% is essentially a compromise between my suggested maximum of 20% and the minimum 20% recommended by a Vanguard study." That seems just an argument rely...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 04, 2018 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate investing - leveraging with a "BULLET" loan
Replies: 17
Views: 1285

Re: Real Estate investing - leveraging with a "BULLET" loan

if you are contemplating investing in real estate with returns of 3 - 4.5% for what you very briefly describe, I would put my money somewhere else. These returns don't reflect the risk that you will be taking what ever about leverage. OP lives in the Eurozone. Yields on German government bonds are ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Climate Change Investment Strategy
Replies: 11
Views: 1201

Re: Climate Change Investment Strategy

Invest in land that will become the new beach front property and/or whose weather will become more favorable. Interestingly there is a worldwide shortage of beach sand. You need particular grades of sand for making concrete (with cement and gravel). Also there is a lot of beach repair going on at v...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 04, 2018 5:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Climate Change Investment Strategy
Replies: 11
Views: 1201

Re: Climate Change Investment Strategy

, is a likelihood from now and into the next few decades, how should one adjust their asset allocation or investment strategy? 1. do not buy a property less than 6 feet above sea level **. And preferably more - you have to look at the last hurricane surges. Pay attention to flood maps -- but don't ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 04, 2018 5:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1185
Views: 97917

Re: Our International Allocation?

For U.S. investors, Taylor suggests that 20% of the equity allocation should be placed in a Total International Stock Index Fund. That suggested 20% is essentially a compromise between my suggested maximum of 20% and the minimum 20% recommended by a Vanguard study." That seems just an argument rely...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 04, 2018 5:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate investing - leveraging with a "BULLET" loan
Replies: 17
Views: 1285

Re: Real Estate investing - leveraging with a "BULLET" loan

1. what happens if you have no tenant? What are other risks e.g. liability if there is an accident in the building or that could be traced back to the building owners? 2. if the loan defaults due to no tenant or major structural issue with the unit/ building, then is there recourse onto you as the b...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Liquidity and marketability
Replies: 6
Views: 474

Re: Liquidity and marketability

I came across an excellent article by Harold Evensky that describes the important differences between liquidity and marketability. Marketability describes an attribute of an investment that means it can be sold at any time. Liquidity describes an attribute of an investment that means it can be sold...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Solar Panel Installation?
Replies: 19
Views: 1433

Re: Solar Panel Installation?

- If you don't plan on an electric car in the immediate future I wouldn't add the extra capacity now. I'd install the current panels with the intention of adding more capacity later (keep room available on the roof). Panels will get better/cheaper so I don't think getting the extra now is worth it....
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Economics: which one?
Replies: 9
Views: 938

Re: Economics: which one?

My son is going to college next year and for Economics he's not sure which one he should pursue. The choices are: General Economics Applied Economics Quantitative Economics He plans to do his MBA on finance - investments and portfolio management. I'm looking for guidance on the type of economics he...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension plan choice of annuity or cash payout
Replies: 27
Views: 2820

Re: Pension plan choice of annuity or cash payout

I have also read that waiting until one is in their seventies to annuitize is a more optimal option. Lots to think about here. 1. yes if you mean the mortality credit is higher. A bad side of annuitants is they live longer than the average population, thus they get worse rates. Company pensions (De...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?
Replies: 71
Views: 6107

Re: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?

Why is deflation a problem for Japan, they appear to have excellent quality of life Less than 2 weeks off a year and death due to overwork a common syndrome in middle aged men? Homes the size of postage stamps? Xenophobia towards foreign immigrants? Real homelessness (for the first time)? Given the...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why won't the US markets average 0-2% (or 10-20%) real returns for a few decades?
Replies: 20
Views: 2782

Re: Why won't the US markets average 0-2% (or 10-20%) real returns for a few decades?

I cannot predict the future. I've seen people post phrases like "things are different this time" in sarcasm, typically intended to support the supposition that certain trends or cycles or return rates (mostly in the US) are pre-determined to continue in the future, during our lifetimes. Other peopl...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.
Replies: 123
Views: 14413

Re: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.

And here's a followup article on Sears. Each new article sounds more like an epitaph than an analysis. http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/sears-restructuring/?utm_source=kw_newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2018-10-02 To make this actionable, what impact would this have on malls? Wil...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.
Replies: 123
Views: 14413

Re: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.

... How about names of department and other stores with good customer experience and likely to stay in business - i.e. that are bucking the trend? I'd like to give them a try. (For shopping, not for investing outside of what the index provides.) Costco is the only large department store I shop at t...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?
Replies: 60
Views: 3976

Re: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?

With yesterday's drop of about 4%, the FTSE MIB is even cheaper now, so that the Italian market has now one of the lowest valuations of the world (as measured by CAPE or other metrics). I am wondering whether it is a bargain, or whether things are likely to still get much worse? Even if Italy were ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 02, 2018 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio advice - new UK investor
Replies: 18
Views: 633

Re: Portfolio advice - new UK investor

minimalistmarc wrote:
Tue Oct 02, 2018 2:42 pm
I think jersey is pounds sterling, stand to be corrected!
Yes.

They are not technically part of eu now but I assume eu customs rules will apply post Brexit.
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can old perfumes/cologne be used?
Replies: 15
Views: 1326

Re: Can old perfumes/cologne be used?

I am clearing out the place of an elderly relative and found a huge box of old perfumes and colognes. I am guessing some of these must be at least 20 years old. They were not stored properly or refrigerated, just placed on the shelf for decades. Would there be any danger if I were to just use them ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 02, 2018 5:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SEC charges Musk with Fraud!
Replies: 117
Views: 10638

Re: SEC charges Musk with Fraud!!!

One takeaway I had....Avoid stocks where the CEO is a prolific social media user. This aspect really has not been commented upon. Guess what? Social media posts can and will be used in a court of law. I sometimes wonder if people actually get that or not. In Mr. Musk's case, evidently not. Yes. Soc...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 02, 2018 5:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: General Electric
Replies: 73
Views: 9567

Re: General Electric

Son just got an on campus interview with GE. I warned him....they may not be able to pay you. New CEO has a solid track record. Comes from Danaher which is like an under-the-radar Berkshire Hathaway. The key issues would appear to be: - prospects for the existing portfolio of businesses - CEO has m...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 02, 2018 5:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?
Replies: 60
Views: 3976

Re: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?

With yesterday's drop of about 4%, the FTSE MIB is even cheaper now, so that the Italian market has now one of the lowest valuations of the world (as measured by CAPE or other metrics). I am wondering whether it is a bargain, or whether things are likely to still get much worse? Even if Italy were ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 02, 2018 5:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why TIPS only for unexpected inflation?
Replies: 27
Views: 2556

Re: Why tips only for unexpected inflation?

Is the inflation protection any different between the shorter- and longer-term bond funds? Or is the only difference related to interest rates? The majority of inflation protection in a TIPS bond comes through the final (CPI adjusted from $100) maturity amount. Thus (I think) in principle short ter...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?
Replies: 71
Views: 6107

Re: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?

Why is deflation a problem for Japan, they appear to have excellent quality of life Less than 2 weeks off a year and death due to overwork a common syndrome in middle aged men? Homes the size of postage stamps? Xenophobia towards foreign immigrants? Real homelessness (for the first time)? Given the...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's Making the Case for Gold
Replies: 111
Views: 7756

Re: Barron's Making the Case for Gold

Is 10% gold really going to help a mostly stock portfolio when the next disaster hits? I stay away from these little 5-10% bets because they don’t make much difference other than add complexity. As a matter of fact, from 1987 to 2017 it did. https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2017-10-10/is...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's Making the Case for Gold
Replies: 111
Views: 7756

Re: Barron's Making the Case for Gold

There's always a case for gold. In fact, it should form the core of everyone's portfolio as a form of universal money -- just in case. 10% or so core holding in gold should be at the heart of any investor's assets. Why not bitcoin? /sarcasm And there is the bull case. The "craziness" about money ha...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?
Replies: 60
Views: 3976

Re: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?

The crazy irony is that if either the Europeans relented and let Italy run its higher deficit OR Italy managed a swift exit from the Euro (and it would have to be swift) then this could be very good news for the Italian stock market and the Italian economy. It's the uncertainty and the fear of chao...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?
Replies: 60
Views: 3976

Re: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?

The crazy irony is that if either the Europeans relented and let Italy run its higher deficit OR Italy managed a swift exit from the Euro (and it would have to be swift) then this could be very good news for the Italian stock market and the Italian economy. It's the uncertainty and the fear of chao...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why TIPS only for unexpected inflation?
Replies: 27
Views: 2556

Re: Why tips only for unexpected inflation?

So does this mean that if inflation unexpectedly drops, the NAV of tips will go down? Kind of the opposite of nominal bonds, where the NAV will go up if interest rates go down? Or will the NAV go up if inflation drops? During the 2008 recession, when inflation dropped, the NAV of TIPS went down a l...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why TIPS only for unexpected inflation?
Replies: 27
Views: 2556

Re: Why tips only for unexpected inflation?

So does this mean that if inflation unexpectedly drops, the NAV of tips will go down? Kind of the opposite of nominal bonds, where the NAV will go up if interest rates go down? Or will the NAV go up if inflation drops? During the 2008 recession, when inflation dropped, the NAV of TIPS went down a l...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: General Electric
Replies: 73
Views: 9567

Re: General Electric

Son just got an on campus interview with GE. I warned him....they may not be able to pay you. It's hard to imagine that GE will somehow run out of funds. Unless the pension and environmental liabilities (and legacy financial services liabilities) prove to be so huge that they use Chapter 11 strateg...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 02, 2018 2:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?
Replies: 71
Views: 6107

Re: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?

Our money supply is not a "free market". It is heavily managed, and it's managed with a mandate to maximize employment, stabilize prices , and moderate long-term interest rates . Those are indeed the statutory objectives of the Federal Reserve System, as mandated by Congress which created the Fed. ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 02, 2018 2:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will size and value factor premia still exist in 20-30 years?
Replies: 13
Views: 1142

Re: Will size and value factor premia still exist in 20-30 years?

Jared Kizer wrote, in 2015, in "A Review of Equity Factor Premia": 6. Any transparent strategy, which applies to everything outlined in this piece, is capable of extended periods of underperformance. There is nothing that preordains these strategies to work over any period of any length. Investors ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 01, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension plan choice of annuity or cash payout
Replies: 27
Views: 2820

Re: Pension plan choice of annuity or cash payout

There has been a lot of discussion here about safe withdrawal rates, there was a Trinity study that set the rate at 4%, as I recall. Good point about low interest rates, Boglehead thinking has been that 3% might be more realistic and sustainable. In essence you can get c. 0.8% on a long TIPS bond? ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 01, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?
Replies: 60
Views: 3976

Re: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?

The crazy irony is that if either the Europeans relented and let Italy run its higher deficit OR Italy managed a swift exit from the Euro (and it would have to be swift) then this could be very good news for the Italian stock market and the Italian economy. It's the uncertainty and the fear of chaos...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 01, 2018 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?
Replies: 60
Views: 3976

Re: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?

There is a weird parallel currency scheme being discussed involving BOTs (mini-Treasury notes, Buoni Ordinari del Tesoro) which are securitized tax credits. The idea is that the government would start paying its domestic bills using these. During the Argentina crisis in 2002 state governments (whic...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 01, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?
Replies: 60
Views: 3976

Re: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?

The economic and financial chaos would be so extreme as to put the whole system under threat. Everyone with an account at an Italian bank would be trying to move their money to a French or German bank which would remain denominated in Euros. Who then bails out the Italian banking system? I think th...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 01, 2018 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: General Electric
Replies: 73
Views: 9567

Re: General Electric

Last week GE disclosed that the vaunted power division's turbines have major flaws. GE's CEO told the division employees via video message to "keep your chin up." Today the CEO was fired. The power sector has been under the gun for a while. Not just GE. Turbine business has been shrinking. They are...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 01, 2018 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?
Replies: 60
Views: 3976

Re: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?

Do I feel the need to rush out and invest in these companies? ENI ENI Energy Do I want a concentrated bet on oil? Is it better than Exxon, BP, or Shell? Or Pemex? Or Petrochina? ENEL ENEL Utilities I don't overweight utilities in the rest of the world, not sure why I want to here... ISP INTESA SANP...