Search found 32953 matches

by Valuethinker
Tue Dec 05, 2017 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "petro," a Venezuelan oil-backed cryptocurrency
Replies: 32
Views: 2272

Re: The "petro," a Venezuelan oil-backed cryptocurrency

P.S. Despite the currency being backed by precious metal, inflation during the early 1950s was hellacious, and one of my earlier memories of watching television was of a news program with an announcer pointing to a graphic of a "shrinking dollar," with different-sized pictures of a dollar bill. Dan...
by Valuethinker
Tue Dec 05, 2017 8:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Europe Suggestions
Replies: 44
Views: 2764

Re: Europe Suggestions

Another vote for reading Rick Steves' "Europe Through the Back Door". He has tips on seeing the "real Europe", not just the touristy spots. He's also big on saving money--he has many great suggestions on where to stay, where to eat, and stuff you never thought about, like doing laundry on the fly o...
by Valuethinker
Tue Dec 05, 2017 8:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Europe Suggestions
Replies: 44
Views: 2764

Re: Europe Suggestions

Looking at taking a family trip to Europe this summer. Kids will be 10 and 12, trying to beat the grumpy teen years (I guess). I'm thinking about 3 weeks in length. Should have a few airline tickets with miles and will likely use AirBandB, or some other lower budget option for housing. Looking for ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Dec 05, 2017 7:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Growing Number of Electric Vehicles
Replies: 112
Views: 8334

Re: Growing Number of Electric Vehicles

I'm sorry, but I saw nothing in that article that suggested that the alternative to the demand shedding was a brownout. Did we read the same article? The Flex Alert and subsequent warning on Feb. 6 were called because of extreme cold weather in much of the United States and Canada impacting fuel su...
by Valuethinker
Tue Dec 05, 2017 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 19489

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Would you hold or sell? ie. if hypothetically holding 1% of your net worth in Bitcoin. Would you sell at 2X return? At 1 BTC = $20,000 ? Or hold indefinitely ? Great questions! One thing I just cannot wrap my mind around is what the rough intrinsic value of a bitcoin should be. It is confusing that...
by Valuethinker
Mon Dec 04, 2017 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "petro," a Venezuelan oil-backed cryptocurrency
Replies: 32
Views: 2272

Re: The "petro," a Venezuelan oil-backed cryptocurrency

brad.clarkston wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2017 5:18 pm
Yea I see tons and tons of non-Venezuelan's flocking to the Petro ... said no one ever.
And Venezuelans flock to Miami condo buildings.
by Valuethinker
Mon Dec 04, 2017 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "petro," a Venezuelan oil-backed cryptocurrency
Replies: 32
Views: 2272

Re: The "petro," a Venezuelan oil-backed cryptocurrency

It would be an interesting idea if a financially-stable country created an asset-backed block-chain currency. Asset-backed meaning the it was officially exchangeable for the actual commodity or possibly for the value of the commodity in the country's traditional currency. More likely, we'll see blo...
by Valuethinker
Mon Dec 04, 2017 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "petro," a Venezuelan oil-backed cryptocurrency
Replies: 32
Views: 2272

Re: The "petro," a Venezuelan oil-backed cryptocurrency

And if you don't understand what an "oil-backed cryptocurrency" is, neither do I, and neither do the news organizations reporting on it. Reuters The leftist leader offered few specifics about the currency launch or how the struggling OPEC member would pull off such a feat, but he declared to cheers...
by Valuethinker
Mon Dec 04, 2017 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 19489

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

If we are just talking pure math, you'd be mad to not put 1% of your investible assets in Bitcoin. If there was a 95% chance of Bitcoin going to zero, and a 5% chance 1 Bitcoin goes to $500K, you'd be a food indeed. So if we're talking pure math, where did you get the 5% chance 1 Bitcoin goes to $5...
by Valuethinker
Mon Dec 04, 2017 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 19489

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Somebody earlier in the thread mentioned how fiat currency is all about the stability/guarantee of the government issuing the bills. Ergo, the reason why the US dollar retains good value is because those Franklins and Washingtons will get you goods and services. Which got me thinking. Right now, th...
by Valuethinker
Mon Dec 04, 2017 1:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Growing Number of Electric Vehicles
Replies: 112
Views: 8334

Re: Growing Number of Electric Vehicles

I'm sorry, but I saw nothing in that article that suggested that the alternative to the demand shedding was a brownout. Did we read the same article? The Flex Alert and subsequent warning on Feb. 6 were called because of extreme cold weather in much of the United States and Canada impacting fuel su...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 03, 2017 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin - How it works for the layman
Replies: 30
Views: 2864

Re: Bitcoin - How it works for the layman

Even if society migrates to bitcoin as a currency, that doesn't mean it makes sense to consider it an investment. Actually, if society were to migrate, it might very much make sense as an investment. Why? Because there is a fixed supply of Bitcoin. That means if society's economy is growing, Bitcoi...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 03, 2017 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin - How it works for the layman
Replies: 30
Views: 2864

Re: Bitcoin - How it works for the layman

Why is a Bitcoin's value quoted in dollars? Bitcoin value is often quoted in terms of dollars, but not always. There are exchanges that allow trading bitcoin for many other currencies, including GBP, EU, and even other crypto currencies. When the US dollar's value is quoted in Bitcoin I'll start to...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 03, 2017 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Want to sell my Bitcoin, but when?
Replies: 90
Views: 8382

Re: Want to sell my Bitcoin, but when?

I bought about $7000 worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum in July as an experiment and learning process. Well, it is now worth about $21,000. I had planned to buy and hold until July 2018 so any gains would be long-term, but the recent run-up has me worrying the bubble pop may come sooner. I can afford to...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 03, 2017 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 19489

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Why not short bitcoin? Keynes... "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." Yeah, there's a bitcoin bubble. Bitcoin's value is destined to plummet. Sometime. But will that happen before or after I get wiped out by shorting it? I'm not an experienced bitcoin shorter, but ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 03, 2017 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 19489

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Why not short bitcoin? Keynes... "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." Yeah, there's a bitcoin bubble. Bitcoin's value is destined to plummet. Sometime. But will that happen before or after I get wiped out by shorting it? I'm not an experienced bitcoin shorter, but ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 03, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Growing Number of Electric Vehicles
Replies: 112
Views: 8334

Re: Growing Number of Electric Vehicles

Again, there is a bigger picture here... If we went to all electric light vehicles, it would increase US electrical demand about 20-30%. Even if all purchases of new cars went 100% electric overnight, the changeover in the fleet would take 10 years (average car age), so that is a (very predictable)...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 03, 2017 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 19489

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

My (admittedly limited) understanding is that "miners" are paid bitcoins for recording transactions in the blockchain. Once all the bitcoins have been mined how are the people/nodes maintaining the blockchain going to make any money? I understand the inflationary aspect of increasing the number of ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 03, 2017 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 19489

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

I just don't think that Bitcoin's price reflects that, any more than the IPO price of LNUX reflected the value of Linux. I believe that almost the entirety of the current Bitcoin price is an "extraordinary popular delusion". it's quite possible. It's also possible that "the [Bitcoin] market can rem...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 03, 2017 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 19489

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

My (admittedly limited) understanding is that "miners" are paid bitcoins for recording transactions in the blockchain. Once all the bitcoins have been mined how are the people/nodes maintaining the blockchain going to make any money? I understand the inflationary aspect of increasing the number of ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 03, 2017 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: cash out pension or no?
Replies: 9
Views: 1155

Re: cash out pension or no?

i can start collecting a pension when i'm 50 or have it cashed out. which scenario would be the best? of course i don't know how long i'll live so there's that wild card. age 50 collect $800/month or cash out $140K age 55 collect $1200/month or cash out $230K age 60 collect $1800/month or cash out ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 03, 2017 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thinking of going "back" to school nearing 40?
Replies: 22
Views: 2366

Re: Thinking of going "back" to school nearing 40?

Thank you for those thoughts I will consider that. I am not planning on taking on debt. I am struggling with the schedule You want to look at online and part time options. For example a lot of PT MBAs are modularized into "block weeks". However the exec MBAs often require certain pre determined wee...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 03, 2017 8:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thinking of going "back" to school nearing 40?
Replies: 22
Views: 2366

Re: Thinking of going "back" to school nearing 40?

Hello All, I am considering going back to school and would like to hear if anyone else on here has done this close to my age/situation. I am 37 and have a stable career in the maritime industry with 6 months off per year. My schedule is a bit sporadic though and would make attending classes regular...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 03, 2017 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: GE - a good value?
Replies: 102
Views: 8363

Re: GE - a good value?

Good evening BH Hello Valuethinker, GE aviation is a oligopoly. On the large commercial aviation jet engine side, it is virtually a monopoly. That's a very strange thing to say? Rolls Royce did the engines for the A380, the largest commercial airliner yet built (I think there is a larger Russian An...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 02, 2017 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The College Bubble - investment opportunities after the collapse?
Replies: 114
Views: 7734

Re: The College Bubble - investment opportunities after the collapse?

I dunno. Isn't perpetual wealth self-correcting over generations? Look at the Vanderbilts. Looking at the 2016 Forbes' richest families... 1. Walton family. Founder died a quarter century ago ago but I guess this still counts as "new" wealth? 2. Koch family. Conglomerate was founded by Fred Sr. Koc...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 02, 2017 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in U.K. / USA
Replies: 3
Views: 225

Re: Investing in U.K. / USA

The Bogleheads guide to investing talks a lot about investing in domestic vs international stocks. I'm based in the U.K. So I'm guessing that when they talk about domestic stocks, they're talking about USA. My question is, should I treat it as if I'm in the USA and follow the portfolio advice they ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 02, 2017 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: GE - a good value?
Replies: 102
Views: 8363

Re: GE - a good value?

GE aviation is a oligopoly. On the large commercial aviation jet engine side, it is virtually a monopoly. That's a very strange thing to say? Rolls Royce did the engines for the A380, the largest commercial airliner yet built (I think there is a larger Russian Antonov cargo plane). It's not a monop...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 02, 2017 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?
Replies: 134
Views: 9646

Re: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?

You can often sense a bubble but bubbles can last for years. I did sense the bubble in 2000 but did little about it. In 2007-8 I did sense a bubble and being close to retirement did retain more cash assets and sold my company stock. There are signs -- but they can be misleading especially about -- ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 02, 2017 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?
Replies: 134
Views: 9646

Re: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?

It isn't hard to see a crash coming. Both the tech and housing crashes were the obvious result of clearly irrational financial activity. Are we at that point now?? I don't see the same craziness yet. I'm not sure about tech, but I believe the housing market is even more insane than it was in 2007. ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 02, 2017 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?
Replies: 134
Views: 9646

Re: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?

1987: I saw the advance/decline on TV, more declines than advances, called in my brokerage and bought put on the market Friday, market crashed Monday. 2000-2002: I missed the sign, market was exuberant, we had good jobs and life was good. Didn’t see crash coming. I lost big money. 2004-2007: housin...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 02, 2017 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in U.K. / USA
Replies: 3
Views: 225

Re: Investing in U.K. / USA

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/UK_investing a (the) key consideration is the balance between pension and ISA investing. I am no fan of "home country bias" as it is called in the academic literature regarding investing. It basically gives you lower diversification and greater correlation between you...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 30, 2017 4:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What can we learn from BitCoin’s surge?
Replies: 37
Views: 3143

Re: What can we learn from BitCoin’s surge?

How much are you going to play with? 1%, 5%? If it goes to zero, are you going to pull another 1% or 5% out to try again? How many times will you try? Even if it doesn't go to zero, how long will you stick with your choice if it's just sitting there doing nothing or going down? What if a new shiny ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 29, 2017 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?
Replies: 134
Views: 9646

Re: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?

At no other time have I had any worry about a significant crash. All that said... I don't feel like there is currently anything much to worry about, but who knows? I don't pretend to be any kind of guru, and I don't have faith I'll predict the next one. I mean, despite a 2 for 2 track record, there...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 29, 2017 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?
Replies: 134
Views: 9646

Re: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?

Another entertainment post here. Is there any wise bogle's who have seen or even felt any of the previous crashes coming? And if so, what makes you feel that "something is not right here", and have you done anything about it? The reason I am asking this is that I wasn't in US before 2012, and I hav...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 29, 2017 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?
Replies: 134
Views: 9646

Re: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?

You might get advance notice by watching for yield curve inversion event. No guarantee that it would work every time though. The exact moment of the crash is usually a complete surprise. As I recall the CEO of Lehman was playing bridge one day prior to his company collapsing. Actually that was Bear...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 29, 2017 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?
Replies: 134
Views: 9646

Re: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?

All I saw was that housing prices were in a major bubble, with banks making loans to people who could not afford their houses. I knew housing prices would crash, and construction jobs and banks would lose money, but had no idea that the secondary effects would be so large. You and any number of eco...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 29, 2017 6:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: quiet natural gas generators
Replies: 38
Views: 2164

Re: quiet natural gas generators

I would suggest regular gas generators. If you're worried about being snowed in for multiple days, it's really nice to have all of your machines on one fuel source. That way, if you are snowed in for a long time, you can siphon gas out of your cars/lawnmowers/snowblowers/etc. to fuel your generator...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 29, 2017 6:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: quiet natural gas generators
Replies: 38
Views: 2164

Re: quiet natural gas generators

When it's near zero outside or over 90 in the house in summer, I really need the generator running almost all of the time. This comment from the OP generally excludes most portable units, and puts you in the whole house market -- assuming you mean that you want to be able to run your central air + ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 29, 2017 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: What is it, in Plain English
Replies: 116
Views: 18834

Re: Bitcoin: What is it, in Plain English

<Snip> The easy answer without doing any research, getting some Bitcoin, making some transactions was to call it a tulip and a ponzi scheme. A lot of people here have been calling it a bubble all the way from $8 to $11,000 . I wonder if people will keep saying this if it goes to $50K or $100K? What...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 29, 2017 4:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Growing Number of Electric Vehicles
Replies: 112
Views: 8334

Re: Growing Number of Electric Vehicles

Don’t own one, don’t want to, but I imagine most people charge them overnight. Not exactly peak demand times. I definitely charge overnight, even without rate incentives to do so. I would expect that 95%+ of users also do this; it’s when your car is parked and you do not care if it’s charging. Elec...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 29, 2017 4:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Growing Number of Electric Vehicles
Replies: 112
Views: 8334

Re: Growing Number of Electric Vehicles

just an FYI 40% of all new power installation last year was solar(in the US). If you have a source for this it would be helpful, in my area, I have seen some serious NG generators coming online, but I can't recall a single Solar plant as they are usually on the distribution lines. Now, it makes sen...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 190
Views: 17835

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

I will admit I really don’t fully understand Bitcoin. But the reality is it is much different than the internet. No one could go out and buy stock in “the internet”. There was no company called “the internet.” There weren’t competing internets. There was a technology that was government supported t...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 190
Views: 17835

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

I am 69 and would never consider investing in bitcoins. But my daughter thinks that I do not understand and my granddaughter thinks that neither my daughter nor I can understand. The world keeps changing so fast that neither I nor Bogle are qualify to comment on the subject. It changes, but it also...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600
Replies: 138
Views: 10732

Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Has anyone here used bitcoin? It isn't supposed to be an investment. It's money. When I had to send someone in another country some money, it cost $40 to wire it. I didn't know how else to do it, but that seems standard. If you want to send me money, how do you do it? What if I need that money righ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600
Replies: 138
Views: 10732

Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Valuethinker - it's great that you're passionate about this subject, but I'm not sure that 5 posts in a row is appropriate. Consider giving others an equal opportunity to share their opinions on this topic. I learn something from just about every one of Valuethinker’s posts, and when I don’t, I sti...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin mining
Replies: 19
Views: 2965

Re: Bitcoin mining

Here is a question that occurred to me. If the price of Bitcoin is determined by the difficulty to mine it, that means at least to a great extent the price is dependent on the price of electricity. (Particularly in China where a lot of the Bitcoin mining is taking place). Even when the demand for B...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin mining
Replies: 19
Views: 2965

Re: Bitcoin mining

I few weeks ago I decided to get into bitcoin by mining to minimize the risk of the volatility. My basis was that If I had money invested in hardware that I could resale if I needed to I would minimize my risk. I spent about $1200 on hardware which I got a good deal on. If I were to sell it on eBay...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600
Replies: 138
Views: 10732

Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

We have seen this extraordinary run up in prices and the price of earnings (PE ratio) since 1980. A lot of evidence that cannot continue-- 3% real returns from stocks in the long run is a pretty good guess at the moment, given where interest rates are. What's the long run? 5 years? 10 years? 30 yea...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600
Replies: 138
Views: 10732

Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Amazon is a real company with huge assets and operations, some quite successful. of course it is but could you picture yourself saying the same at the height of dotcom bubble? At that time amazon was just a bet on future of e-commerce just like BitCoin is a bet on future of digital currency. I'm no...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600
Replies: 138
Views: 10732

Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Could you elaborate on why you think that Tesla will fail? I kinda get your point for everything else except the part on Tesla. Thanks! Tesla loses money on every sale, is burning through cash, just used a bunch of cash to buy a solar company, is dependent on government subsidies for solar cars, an...