Search found 35533 matches

by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does international really buy you diversification?
Replies: 43
Views: 4470

Re: Does international really buy you diversification?

I see this as a recurring theme over tye past 20years or so - a fall in us stocks leads to a fall in European stocks the next day.if these walk so much hand under hand, are we really getting any diversification by investubg in international stocks? If international doesn't [/i] offer diversificatio...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does international really buy you diversification?
Replies: 43
Views: 4470

Re: Does international really buy you diversification?

Say the Dollar declines against other currencies by 20%. All other things remaining equal (which they won't - but that's another discussion), would we expect to see international stocks go up by ~20%? If the international fund is unhedged, yes. And of course that gets reversed when currencies swing...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in ETF (different currencies)
Replies: 9
Views: 523

Re: Investing in ETF (different currencies)

you might have different tax treatment depending upon the currency the ETF is labelled in. Suppose you buy an ETF labelled in USD, the assets go up 10% as measured in pound sterlin, but if the USD goes up 10% too, the ETF value in USD won't have changed. So if you sell it you will have made no prof...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation
Replies: 15
Views: 867

Re: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation

While I do not know this for sure, it seems the poster is from the UK. Yes, I am. I don't have a defined benefit pension, though. I'm self employed, and have a pension which only I pay into (if you don't count the tax breaks the state provides), and I can change the funds it's invested in, and inde...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation
Replies: 15
Views: 867

Re: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation

To Original Poster Be very careful of the £1 million lifetime annual limit on pensions. Which only buys you 25k pa of annuity income pa. That was George Osbornes stealth tax rise and it was huge. And most of its victims haven't been hit by it yet. At 6 per cent return a portfolio of 250k will hit it...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation
Replies: 15
Views: 867

Re: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation

While I do not know this for sure, it seems the poster is from the UK. I have limited (dare I say nonexistent understanding) of UK pensions. I do believe there is some form of National Health Insurance, but I don't know to what extent there is financial risk for those insured. So perhaps less risk ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation
Replies: 15
Views: 867

Re: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation

While I do not know this for sure, it seems the poster is from the UK. Yes, I am. I don't have a defined benefit pension, though. I'm self employed, and have a pension which only I pay into (if you don't count the tax breaks the state provides), and I can change the funds it's invested in, and inde...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation
Replies: 15
Views: 867

Re: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation

balbrec2 wrote:
Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:44 pm
This is the first I have ever heard of a pension (defined benefit plan) that could be managed
by the person to whom the pension is due.
No.

OP is British.

We call a self managed defined contribution scheme a Self Invested Personal Pension or SIPP
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 108
Views: 4637

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

The EMH is not an argument from authority. It has its own internal logic. Academics are not stupid. The fact that it has internal consistency does not make it true. The internal consistency may be useful in the academic world; papers can be published and people can get tenure thanks to it; but it d...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 108
Views: 4637

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

JoMoney wrote:
Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:16 pm
The irony of the Nobel for Prof. Fama and EMH, is Prof. Shiller receiving a Nobel for CAPE at the same time.
The Nobel committee often balances its prizes in just that way.

Btw Shiller did not receive his Nobel for CAPE10
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newbie question - comparing investments to broad exchanges
Replies: 3
Views: 181

Re: Newbie question - comparing investments to broad exchanges

Good point ValueThinker. In my very rudimentary calculation I was merely taking the price on January 2 and comparing it to today's price to calculate YTD return. That does seemingly completely ignore dividends. You really want closing price on 31 December also or opening price on 2 Jan. You do need...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?
Replies: 47
Views: 3567

Re: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?

joe8d wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:30 pm
Any interest bearing debt instrument, I consider a bond.
That doesn't really work for instruments issued w no coupon and 1 year or less to maturity. Ie a T Bill.

Similarly you can have CDs of various maturities.
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?
Replies: 47
Views: 3567

Re: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?

Any interest bearing debt instrument, I consider a bond. Perhaps. But how about those 10-year "bonds" which had no interest (or even had negative interest)? Those were debts but without any interest whatsoever. https://www.barrons.com/articles/beware-of-global-bonds-in-a-world-without-yield-1466173...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?
Replies: 47
Views: 3567

Re: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?

6-months is a “bill” (re: T-bills), and I think the general term would be that it’s a debt security, not just bonds. Sorry, not too far off my S7....bills-notes-bonds still implanted. Bills, under 1 year, short term Notes, 1 to 10 yrs, mid-term (“notes don’t get pregnant”) Bonds, 15 to 30 yr, long ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Public companies as proxies for capitalism as a system
Replies: 9
Views: 800

Re: Public companies as proxies for capitalism as a system

Private companies as a portion of the economy vary immensely across different countries and isn't that proportional to national GDP. FRED has data on the stock market cap to GDP ratio for many countries; here is Germany: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDDM01DEA156NWDB And here is USA: https://f...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Bond Funds
Replies: 46
Views: 2623

Re: Emerging Market Bond Funds

I'm pretty persuaded by the MPT/factor idea that even a 60/40 world stock/intermediate treasury portfolio has substantially all of its risk dominated by equity beta. I think many accumulators have income and assets that is also pretty correlated with beta (e.g. if you work at Google or Goldman Sach...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 13, 2018 2:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Public companies as proxies for capitalism as a system
Replies: 9
Views: 800

Re: Public companies as proxies for capitalism as a system

Private companies as a portion of the economy vary immensely across different countries and isn't that proportional to national GDP. FRED has data on the stock market cap to GDP ratio for many countries; here is Germany: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDDM01DEA156NWDB And here is USA: https://f...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Add-on Hot water Heat pump
Replies: 6
Views: 373

Re: Add-on Hot water Heat pump

What's the purpose of the heat pump? Wouldn't they have to be almost 100% efficient to save any energy? Because heat pumps move heat rather than creating heat, they can be more than 100% efficient (e.g. they add more heat than they consume) allowing for significant savings vs. resistance heat. And ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?
Replies: 84
Views: 4272

Re: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?

Stocks are not "on sale" but are actually repriced to reflect a new, slower growth world. So you mean that the growth prospects for European small caps suddenly changed on Wednesday at 3.30 pm (when their price suddenly dropped), and have today improved? No I mean the marginal buyer & seller in the...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newbie question - comparing investments to broad exchanges
Replies: 3
Views: 181

Re: Newbie question - comparing investments to broad exchanges

I'm very much a "set it and forget it" type for investments. I have never really bothered to check the rate of returns all that much of my specific index funds. I have a little "stocks" icon that came on my phone that shows the big exchanges (if that's even the right word) such as the Nasdaq, Dow J...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump sum vs pension
Replies: 14
Views: 1456

Re: Lump sum vs pension

Thanks for all your information. Your Points are well taken. This is one of the biggest decisions of my life to date. I feel I could manage the lump sum but if the stock market tanks for the next 5 years I do not want to look like a fool. I remember back in 2008-2009 people that retired from my com...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone here major in Economics in college?
Replies: 68
Views: 3848

Re: Anyone here major in Economics in college?

Thanks again. There has been a lot more posted since she read this thread so I will have her look at it again. She's scoffing a bit because she doesn't "want" to be an accountant. She is a teenager after all and they can be a bit idealistic. But she also tends to be a little more practical than mos...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?
Replies: 84
Views: 4272

Re: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?

Stock prices are only weakly linked to academic theories and financial facts. Majority of pricing moves are based on emotional expectations. Stocks, in other words, tend to follow a random walk ;-). Hence Burton Malkiel "A Random Walk down Wall Street". So especially when talking about an S&P 500 o...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?
Replies: 84
Views: 4272

Re: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?

I have seen the expression 'stocks on sale' in many places, including the writings of Jonathan Clements and some posts on Bogleheads. When Warren Buffett linekend himself to an oversexed person in a harem after the stock crash of 1973-74, he was saying the same thing. Yet yesterday I came across a ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?
Replies: 84
Views: 4272

Re: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?

On the subject of interest rates, in "Valuing Wall Street" Andrew Smithers said that central bank interest rates and bond yields are irrelevant in valuing stocks, therefore any models that use them are worthless. (This includes "the Fed model", whatever that is.) I think he said you can use the div...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?
Replies: 84
Views: 4272

Re: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?

For the next 20 years I will only be a buyer if the all world and will be 100% equities so I do see a price drop as a sale. I hate it when mini drops like this one quickly rebound. Be warned, bear markets don't come with signs "this is a bear market". Stocks drop. Buyers rush in. A down day or week...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone here major in Economics in college?
Replies: 68
Views: 3848

Re: Anyone here major in Economics in college?

Thanks for the feedback. I am just going to let her read this thread since it's full of so much good information. A lot of this is due to the school pressuring her to tell them what her college plans are. They are a little aggressive on that. She's been telling them undecided but her counselor keep...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone here major in Economics in college?
Replies: 68
Views: 3848

Re: Anyone here major in Economics in college?

I went to big state U and minored in Econ (majored in Poli Sci, went to law school). If I recall correctly, my school offered both hard econ and easy econ -- both will get you a degree in Econ, but different degrees. Hard econ = BS in Econ, requires lots of math, calculus, etc. Easy Econ = BA in Ec...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone here major in Economics in college?
Replies: 68
Views: 3848

Re: Anyone here major in Economics in college?

I majored in economics and math. My experience has been a mixed bag. I graduated in 2013. The economy was still a bit soft then, with lots of graduates from 2009-2012 still competing for the same entry-level jobs I wanted. I got a lot of rejections and ended up working in a call center at a bank, m...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doubling down on EM [Emerging Market]
Replies: 55
Views: 5757

Re: Doubling down on EM [Emerging Market]

I entirely forgot about the American Civil War. Killed more Americans than any other conflict, and could have torn the nation literally in two. People read about the fantastic returns of US stock market history and give no thought to the VERY tough times we have been though. We started out as a tru...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [JP Morgan] Target Retirement 2025 - CRAZY ?!?!
Replies: 17
Views: 2243

Re: Morgan Stanley Target Retirement 2025 - CRAZY ?!?!

Morgan Stanley screwed my late father when he didn't know any better. Once he knew better, he moved his IRA over to Vanguard. That was 20 years ago and they are still screwing clients. The only difference between a Morgan Stanley broker and a prostitute is that her clients don't know they just got ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to sell international funds in 401k
Replies: 10
Views: 1479

Re: Time to sell international funds in 401k

Hi...my workplace Schwab 401k seems to be doing poorly this year with personal rate of return now at -1.66 (Modified Dietz) as of yesterday. My temperament is moderately conservative with plans to retire at the end of this year or at the end of Q1 2019; I'm 62. I have a couple of international fund...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [JP Morgan] Target Retirement 2025 - CRAZY ?!?!
Replies: 17
Views: 2243

Re: Morgan Stanley Target Retirement 2025 - CRAZY ?!?!

Morgan Stanley screwed my late father when he didn't know any better. Once he knew better, he moved his IRA over to Vanguard. That was 20 years ago and they are still screwing clients. The only difference between a Morgan Stanley broker and a prostitute is that her clients don't know they just got ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [JP Morgan] Target Retirement 2025 - CRAZY ?!?!
Replies: 17
Views: 2243

Re: Morgan Stanley Target Retirement 2025 - CRAZY ?!?!

I have a friend who I've been talking to about retirement for maybe 25 years, and my friend took advantage of the best their company offered. Recently, my friend retired, and somehow, told me today they have the Morgan Stanley Target Retirement 2025 fund as their main. Now, some of the funds we tal...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?
Replies: 47
Views: 3567

Re: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?

Just curious how you would classify this investment? No matter what you would classify this as, I would be interested in the "cross over" point, what is the threshold for an investment to be a bond? Is is based on duration, liquidity, what? Does cash imply it is immediately available? I have put ab...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Timber as an alternative - didn't work so well...
Replies: 19
Views: 2790

Re: Timber as an alternative - didn't work so well...

This article is about the south but I hear similar things to a lesser degree in New England. I have a cousin in Vermont who has what they call "wood lots" up there. Mostly hardwood for lumber and cord wood for sale as firewood. Apparently prices are also way down in the past 20 years for New Englan...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doubling down on EM [Emerging Market]
Replies: 55
Views: 5757

Re: Doubling down on EM [Emerging Market]

I assume we have all read "Stocks For The Long Run" which gives us a biased history as written by the winner. Keep in mind that when the his tale starts in 1802 the US (the ultimate winner for the next couple centuries) was itself a mere frontier market. What investor would touch US stocks in 1812 ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This Time is Different
Replies: 30
Views: 5391

Re: This Time is Different

Banks and the investment industry compete to hold your money. By the "investment industry" I mean industries based on securities: stockbrokers, mutual funds, and financial advisors. When you liquidate stocks and hold cash, it is bad for the investment industry. Therefore, just about everybody in th...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This Time is Different
Replies: 30
Views: 5391

Re: This Time is Different

Most of the statements are hard to dispute. If their conclusion is that the central bankers are the problem, however, the solution of giving them more power is laughable. And there is no early warning system. If there were, few economists would agree on what it was. And those on the Federal Reserve...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone here major in Economics in college?
Replies: 68
Views: 3848

Re: Anyone here major in Economics in college?

Econ is a pretty practical and employable major, if that's what you are asking. In an abstract sense, more respectable than business, but that's mostly because business majors tend to go to much worse colleges - there are econ majors at Harvard and Stanford, but not business, and bottom-feeding sch...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone here major in Economics in college?
Replies: 68
Views: 3848

Re: Anyone here major in Economics in college?

My daughter (who is in high school now), is trying to plan for college. She thinks she wants to be an economics major in college because she wants to be an economist, CFO, or maybe a financial planner. Plus, math and science are (by far) her strongest subjects yet she has no desire to go into Engin...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump sum vs pension
Replies: 14
Views: 1456

Re: Lump sum vs pension

If I do the math, my pension is paying a rate of 5.75% of my lump sum. I know there are many other factors to consider when making my choice, but am I crazy to think I could invest a lump sum and withdraw at a rate of 5.75%? Thanks in advance for your assistance. Given where interest rates are now,...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any natural hedges to stocks?
Replies: 17
Views: 1673

Re: Any natural hedges to stocks?

And all this assumes that the negative correlation isn't just a chance sampling accident and that it will continue into the future. Another way of saying this might be: - the causes of each bear market are different. The 2008-09 was a repricing of risk assets due to falls in the US housing market, ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any natural hedges to stocks?
Replies: 17
Views: 1673

Re: Any natural hedges to stocks?

If by "hedge" you mean a way of getting the returns of stocks without really taking the risks of stocks, if you mean some magic investment that will simply cancel out stock plunges, I think that's the investing equivalent of perpetual motion. By hedge I mean something with a low or negative correla...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you think of the Tesla craziness?
Replies: 25
Views: 2227

Re: What do you think of the Tesla craziness?

Let’s be honest - you don’t buy a $ 35,000 electric car to save money. They are niche products, always have been and always will be. What do you do in 5-8 years when these are all rusted out and components need to be replaced? Closest dealer is two hours away and is backlogged for months with repai...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Romer & William Nordhaus share Nobel Prize in Economics
Replies: 16
Views: 1504

Re: Paul Romer & William Nordhaus share Nobel Prize in Economics

Bogle applied economic science to a practical problem and created huge human value out of it. He wasn't Salk or Sabin to invent the polio vaccine, he was the guy who took the vaccination programme out to Africa, if you will. We won't remember that man, woman or collective group, but they have profo...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK pension allocations
Replies: 14
Views: 551

Re: UK pension allocations

I've also now discovered that I'm paying a breathtaking £1300 a year on management charges. Time for a change! Yes but you might save yourself a bit of grief if you move it over to Vanguard. That might then be the only move you have to make. I realize you'd have to wait for a SIPP product from them.
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Foreign bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 741

Re: Foreign bonds

The 3-fund portfolio consisting of domestic equity, foreign equity, and domestic bonds seems to receive a lot of press together with positive comments. However, it’s never clear to me why foreign bonds aignored. Vanguard’s portfolio analysis tool allows you to set any AA allocation but recommending...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK pension allocations
Replies: 14
Views: 551

Re: UK pension allocations

Yes, that's right - global equities and global bonds. You really don't need to think too much harder than that. Move it to a low cost platform and be done with it. Monitor and rebalance once a year, say. For your SIPP I would be tempted to wait until the Vanguard product is available. And I would p...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK pension allocations
Replies: 14
Views: 551

Re: UK pension allocations

I will then be confident of the B+ answer. Not the most optimal portfolio for all states of the world, but a good, solid, low cost investment strategy which discourages me from chopping and changing. Nicely put. At the moment I'm entertaining this idea: 60% in VWRL 40% in AGBP and then leaving well...