Search found 34582 matches

by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heavy in equities?
Replies: 46
Views: 4702

Re: Heavy in equities?

That’s the psychology of someone with a very low withdrawal rate. He stressed tested his stock allocation by selling it to zero and concluded no-problema. He obviously can spend more but simply chooses not to. He has no need to believe in theories about equity investing or in the predictive power o...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 29, 2018 2:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How to invest without regret" - Daniel Kahneman
Replies: 20
Views: 2720

Re: "How to invest without regret" - Daniel Kahneman

I used to do something like this back when I was teaching and contributing to TIAA-CREF. You only had two choices then: TIAA traditional, and CREF stock. So, I put 50% in each. Psychologically, they seemed like two different retirement accounts. TIAA was safe and conservative like a bank CD, and CR...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 29, 2018 2:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for a beginner investor in Germany
Replies: 22
Views: 1776

Re: Help for a beginner investor in Germany

Portfolio allocation is more or less universal theme But what are the differences in investing in Vanguard funds vs normal ETFs? Did you check on taxes and comissions? For instance: Can you hold ETFs without any custodian comission in Europe? This seems to vary by country, and account. Do ETFs have...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 29, 2018 2:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Friend Asked Me - Ponzi or Not? [1st position commercial mortgage notes]
Replies: 40
Views: 8028

Re: A Friend Asked Me - Ponzi or Not? [1st position commercial mortgage notes]

focusedonwhatmatters wrote:
Thu Jun 28, 2018 3:46 pm
Could someone please copy/paste this article? Have a friend who bought Woodbridge and neither of us have WSJ subscriptions.

Thanks in advance!

fowm
Hi

That would violate the copyright rules that this Forum adheres to.

You need to find a friend who has a subscription. Or check a library?
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 28, 2018 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard 500 over Vanguard Total (US) Stock Market
Replies: 45
Views: 5029

Re: Vanguard 500 over Vanguard Total (US) Stock Market

Not sure what this even means. You hold them in market weights. So a person that owns just an industry that outperforms in the next ten years will outperform the market. The reason I hold the index is because I don't know which will outperform, so the market's guess is as good as any. Secondly, the...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 28, 2018 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard 500 over Vanguard Total (US) Stock Market
Replies: 45
Views: 5029

Re: Vanguard 500 over Vanguard Total (US) Stock Market

Efficient market theory would suggest that these are risk factors in stocks outside the S&P 500, which you are rewarded for as an investor. So either: - markets are not efficient - they aren't really risks so you are not rewarded for them - you are rewarded for them, but there are also risks in the...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 28, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History of Protectionism and Stock Returns, 1825-2015
Replies: 19
Views: 2108

Re: History of Protectionism and Stock Returns, 1825-2015

Your thoughts? Well SimpleGift, since you asked: My thoughts are that you did not disappoint . :sharebeer I also think the impact of tariffs to returns in the example you showed below seems muted. In a time of rising tariffs (starting circa 1930) and high tariffs, globalization still managed a 50% ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 28, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History of Protectionism and Stock Returns, 1825-2015
Replies: 19
Views: 2108

Re: History of Protectionism and Stock Returns, 1825-2015

If I recall correctly, Adam Smith cited tariffs extensively in The Wealth of Nations -- perhaps there may be some data that support his conclusions. It took him a long time (decades, I think) to write that book, he must have done a fair amount of research. And it was the United States in the 19th a...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 28, 2018 6:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks vs. rental property
Replies: 101
Views: 9758

Re: Stocks vs. rental property

There's nothing wrong with real estate ... But please stop using San Francisco Bay Area examples when you guys have no idea what it's like there. For example, guessing that you can get $8K-$10K/mo rent on a 1.5M house when the real number is $5K-$6K/mo. And stop assuming you COULD have bought back ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 28, 2018 6:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks vs. rental property
Replies: 101
Views: 9758

Re: Stocks vs. rental property

In 2013, we came into some extra money. We always wanted to have rental property. I'm a very handy person and love to tinker/build/fix things. Over the past 5 years....we've bought 4 rentals....some in really bad shape, some not so bad. It's definitely a business. If you want to make money, you mak...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks vs. rental property
Replies: 101
Views: 9758

Re: Stocks vs. rental property

There's nothing wrong with real estate ... But please stop using San Francisco Bay Area examples when you guys have no idea what it's like there. For example, guessing that you can get $8K-$10K/mo rent on a 1.5M house when the real number is $5K-$6K/mo. And stop assuming you COULD have bought back ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When does purchasing equities lose its marginal utility?
Replies: 48
Views: 2542

Re: When does purchasing equities lose its marginal utility?

Coincidently, I was just talking to our company-provided financial advisor, and this came up. He is a believer in always buying more equities. His personal plan is to have a rolling ladder of 3 year CDs, FDIC insured, amounting to 3 years of his expenses. Everything else goes into equities, where a...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P&i: some see commodity funds ready to heat up
Replies: 6
Views: 579

Re: P&i: some see commodity funds ready to heat up

> backwardation Whats that. Commodities are cheap right now. How cheap are you waiting for them to go? Is that price point not sufficient to trigger your buy? The discussion of backwardation and contango is important to understanding what the sources of returns are from commodities for financial in...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jun 28, 2018 3:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CNBC: Social Security buying power has slipped by a third for retirees
Replies: 95
Views: 6976

Re: CNBC: Social Security buying power has slipped by a third for retirees

HAH! Another reason for delaying social security as long as possible -- less time for inflation to screw you! Now I would take exactly the opposite approach. Take SS at the first opportunity. Get your money before inflation erodes its value. That much ballyhooed 8% per year of delay loses a lot of ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Not sure where to invest (UK Investor)
Replies: 5
Views: 669

Re: Not sure where to invest

MoominLa - I would suggest you edit the title of your thread to include "UK investor" - that way our UK knowledgeable Bogleheads can more easily spot your thread to give you opinions. Thanks for the suggestion, have edited! The complex issue is you are UK resident for HMRC, and when does that end? ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 27, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Not sure where to invest (UK Investor)
Replies: 5
Views: 669

Re: Not sure where to invest (UK Investor)

Hello everyone. I am new to this forum and investing in general. Though I am making my way through some investment books and trying to educate myself, I decided not to waste more time over-thinking and put the little money I had to invest (£1500) into Vanguard Lifestrategy Funds through their UK si...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When does purchasing equities lose its marginal utility?
Replies: 48
Views: 2542

Re: When does purchasing equities lose its marginal utility?

If you have no interest in how large a legacy you are leaving and are confident you already have enough to last for the remainder of your life and fund your lifestyle at what point does investing in additional equities lose its marginal utility. Is it 35 years before death, 30, 20, 10 or never? You...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 3 nights in Vegas
Replies: 49
Views: 3318

Re: 3 nights in Vegas

I plan to go to Vegas with my wife on July 1st - reaching late night and starting back on 4th night 10 PM. So about 3 night and 3 days. What can I do in this time frame to best utilize my time? Do I need a car in Vegas or public transport is best way? Thank you in advance!! If you plan to gamble, p...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 27, 2018 5:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard 500 over Vanguard Total (US) Stock Market
Replies: 45
Views: 5029

Re: Vanguard 500 over Vanguard Total (US) Stock Market

I see many people use the total stock market fund to gain US equity exposure. I prefer the Vanguard 500 index which tracks the S&P 500 index instead. Here are my reasons: 1. The S&P 500 companies are among the largest, most mature, most profitable (in terms of return on equity) and most stable out ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: MBA Options
Replies: 46
Views: 4214

Re: MBA Options

Hello Everybody, For anybody who has/is around people with MBAs I have a question. I recently was admitted to 2 MBA programs and a 3rd is pending, I'm asking some advice on where to go: School #1: Accepted American University Online Cost: 89K MBA rank: 79 Part-Time MBA rank: 172 School#2: Accepted ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks vs. rental property
Replies: 101
Views: 9758

Re: Stocks vs. rental property

Second, I totally agree with you. Coastal markets, around the world, have delivered superior real estate returns for literally several THOUSAND years of human history, for obvious reasons. 1. if you go along the East Coast of England, you have the Saxon Shore. Fortresses built in late Roman times t...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jun 26, 2018 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Now With Down 2018 Market
Replies: 32
Views: 6256

Re: What Now With Down 2018 Market

Given my older age of 78 and still employed I have been very cautious about placing too much of my funds in the market . In January, I invested in theVanguard Retirement Income Fund that has been down for most of the year and now slightly up. Given the drastic and somewhat unexplainable shifts in t...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jun 26, 2018 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Balance Funds
Replies: 3
Views: 862

Re: Vanguard's Balance Funds

How much of an impact or headwind will high duration bond allocations have on these funds. It's not possible to predict. Depends if the forward yield curve, the market's best guess at future interest rate rises, is correct or not. The volatility of the bond part of the portfolio against rising inte...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jun 26, 2018 5:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thoughts on Canadian Universities [Dual US / Canadian citizen]
Replies: 33
Views: 1833

Re: Thoughts on Canadian Universities [Dual US / Canadian citizen]

There are a lot of kids I know in the Bay Area who are at UBC. Reputationally, UBC seems to be in the same league as large US state universities (I know dual-citizen kids who have got into U of California campuses, but have preferred to go to UBC). If your daughter has any interest in Business or c...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jun 26, 2018 2:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for a beginner investor in Germany
Replies: 22
Views: 1776

Re: Help for a beginner investor in Germany

The absolute simplest portfolio would be Vanguard FTSE All World etf and iShares Global Aggregate Euro hedged bonds etf. You may end up with a bit more complex portfolio if you go after etfs that German brokers offer in saving plans. Consorsbank offers a saving plan with the Vanguard all world etf ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jun 26, 2018 2:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying Audi 6 in Germany
Replies: 9
Views: 1499

Re: Buying Audi 6 in Germany

I think if one wants a new German car, in the USA, one would be well advised to buy it promptly? Now, like? A punitive tariff is likely to be slapped on European cars imported into the USA and as that, as I understand it, does not require a legislative vote, it could happen any day now. Value of use...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 25, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks vs. rental property
Replies: 101
Views: 9758

Re: Stocks vs. rental property

In the hands of an established real estate investor, $1 mill could probably fetch $100k in annual cash flow, plus have annual price appreciation and rent increases, plus have other people manage the properties. Heck, there are lots of assets that could get you to retirement today on $1 mill. But, i...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 25, 2018 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks vs. rental property
Replies: 101
Views: 9758

Re: Stocks vs. rental property

Dear experts, I was wondering if you think investing (say 1 million dollars for example) in rental property may be better than stocks and bonds? Because rental property would provide appreciation as well as monthly incoming though there is always the pain of not being able to find tenants? Or shoul...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 25, 2018 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small company effect is overstated due to flawed dataset
Replies: 12
Views: 1671

Re: Small company effect is overstated due to flawed dataset

If the "Small Company Effect" and "premium" are really robust, they should work in Canada too. Let's look: Source: Portfolio Visualizer Portfolio 1 ( blue ): iShares Core S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF (XIC) Portfolio 2 ( red ): iShares S&P/TSX SmallCap Index ETF (XCS) The time period was autom...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 25, 2018 3:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Garage refrigerator
Replies: 22
Views: 2728

Re: Garage refrigerator

We just got rid of the garage refrigerator that came with our house. It wasn’t staying consistently cold and we think it was an electricity hog. It was about 27 years old. We want to replace it, but have had several people tell us we need a refrigerator specifically made for garages.. the Whirlpool...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 25, 2018 3:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thoughts on Canadian Universities [Dual US / Canadian citizen]
Replies: 33
Views: 1833

Re: Thoughts on Canadian Universities [Dual US / Canadian citizen]

This may not apply to your daughter. Two of my wife’s cousins graduated from UBC CS program. They didn’t have problem getting very desirable jobs in the US. One used to work for Microsoft, and the other one is working for Apple. McGill seems to be very well known in the US, especially on the US eas...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 25, 2018 2:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 28 year old investor [Australia]
Replies: 17
Views: 1125

Re: 28 year old investor [Australia]

While I don't advocate a large overweight to Australian shares (and don't do it with my own Australian investments), a contrary opinion is that your 25% weighting to Australian shares is not outside the realm of what other reasonable Australian investors do. Vanguard's Australian lifestrategy balan...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 25, 2018 2:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Indexing in Australia
Replies: 2
Views: 262

Re: Indexing in Australia

I have relatives in Australia. I discussed with them about indexing. They are interested to learn more, but I have no idea on how to show them. I did a quick search here and still did not get a concrete recommendation on how to do a 3-fund indexing for Australia. I read here that Australia indexing...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 25, 2018 2:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: European Delivery in November [car]
Replies: 4
Views: 558

Re: European Delivery in November [car]

Following up on my recent inquiry about ED of a Audi. If I decide in the next few weeks, the car will be ready by mid Nov which is getting a little cold to travel around in Europe. Will I be better off to wait until January to order and pick up the car in March/April? any pros/cons of pulling the t...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jun 25, 2018 2:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thoughts on Canadian Universities [Dual US / Canadian citizen]
Replies: 33
Views: 1833

Re: Thoughts on Canadian Universities [Dual US / Canadian citizen]

At 14 she has a long time to decide on these matters. What most people seem to be saying is don't worry about messing up potentials for graduate school or career.The exception might be for careers such as law which I actually looked into as a student and were possibly sensitive to that issue. I kno...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jun 24, 2018 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate vs. Equity - Market Cap Weighted
Replies: 10
Views: 875

Re: Real Estate vs. Equity - Market Cap Weighted

According to http://money.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-money-markets-one-visualization-2017/ , global real estate (including rentals, hotels, and other) is 3x the market cap of global equity. Are these figures true? And assuming they are, from a risk-adjusted return, assuming it were feasible and on...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jun 24, 2018 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thoughts on Canadian Universities [Dual US / Canadian citizen]
Replies: 33
Views: 1833

Re: Thoughts on Canadian Universities [Dual US / Canadian citizen]

It has been a long time since I was acquainted with Canadians, but I thought I recalled that High School in Canada went through Grade 13 - as opposed to Grade 12 in the US. Does that affect entering students at Canadian Universities? I think in the last 50 years that was only an Ontario thing (Queb...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jun 24, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thoughts on Canadian Universities [Dual US / Canadian citizen]
Replies: 33
Views: 1833

Re: Thoughts on Canadian Universities [Dual US / Canadian citizen]

Did anyone here attend college in Canada and then return to the States? How did it affect your career prospects or grad school acceptance in the US? My husband and I were discussing this yesterday and while it’s not totally relevant for us yet, I thought I’d ask the board. We have a daughter that i...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jun 24, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thoughts on Canadian Universities [Dual US / Canadian citizen]
Replies: 33
Views: 1833

Re: Thoughts on Canadian Universities

I have friends in Canada. Based upon what they have told me I'm not sure if she'd want to go there now. Maybe in a few years. Please explain. We can discount physical danger -- if you look at the record of the 2 countries, US universities are significantly less safe. Since Ecole Polytechnique (1989...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jun 24, 2018 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My portfolio, investing from Germany
Replies: 8
Views: 636

Re: My portfolio, investing from Germany

Hi everyone! been reading on this forum for quite a while, I wanted to show my portfolio and get some ideas or suggestions. I'm 34, currently live in Germany, though I'm not German (actually Israeli), and I just started my 'real' investing actions a few months ago. My taxed account is handled with ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jun 24, 2018 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for a beginner investor in Germany
Replies: 22
Views: 1776

Re: Help for a beginner investor in Germany

Hello everyone, I guess such questions are posted quite often, but I would nevertheless appreciate a lot if I could get some advice from you guys. To my situation: I'm 32, single, no children, living in Germany and working as an engineer currently saving around 1k€/month. From those 1k€ I was using...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jun 24, 2018 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 28 year old investor [Australia]
Replies: 17
Views: 1125

Re: 28 year old investor [Australia]

I am in all index funds At the moment I have 160K invested. I have no bonds yet. I am overweight Australian shares because of the tax advantages I get by investing in them. My salary is around 75K. I also get free accomodation since I work on a family farm. My wife is a stay at home Mum. Both of us...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 22, 2018 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is technology the reason for low inflation?
Replies: 57
Views: 3322

Re: Is technology the reason for low inflation?

Valuethinker, Effectively, in this speech ( 25 Years of Inflation Targets: Certainty for Uncertain Times ), the Governor of the Bank of Canada says " It was quite a blow to the economics profession when, in 1982, then-Governor Gerald Bouey famously dropped the bombshell that we would no longer targ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is technology the reason for low inflation?
Replies: 57
Views: 3322

Re: Is technology the reason for low inflation?

https://academic.oup.com/oxrep/article/34/1-2/269/4781817 Bit more on DSGE models and Central Banking Throughout the paper I use the perspective of a policy economist at a central bank or treasury serving his or her principals. I think this perspective is fitting, and my only comparative advantage r...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is technology the reason for low inflation?
Replies: 57
Views: 3322

Re: Is technology the reason for low inflation?

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Technology has nothing to do with it. Controlling inflation through monetary policy works. See my other posts. What Central Banks do not do is target monetary aggregates. What they do is target inflation itself via a range of tools. And they measure the risk of f...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is technology the reason for low inflation?
Replies: 57
Views: 3322

Re: Is technology the reason for low inflation?

I didn't go through all the replies in details but technology really has no inherent relationship with inflation. However, it does help lower inflation. First of all, you need to understand what inflation really is. I presume most people would explain inflation as "rising in price". However, that's...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robotics and Space Investing?
Replies: 5
Views: 454

Re: Robotics and Space Investing?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investi ... cks/MDA-T/

McDonald Detwiller supports the International Space Station among other activities.
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robotics and Space Investing?
Replies: 5
Views: 454

Re: Robotics and Space Investing?

A lot of the key activities will be buried inside large aerospace conglomerates. Also a lot of the really interesting stuff will be in VC backed startups and early stage companies. There's probably no easy way to play this, although doubtless someone will/ has launched an ETF. https://www.marketwatc...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 22, 2018 5:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 28 year old investor [Australia]
Replies: 17
Views: 1125

Re: 28 year old investor [Australia]

Greetings all, I am 28 years old, married to a woman my age with a young baby. I recently started doing some reading on this site and thought it might be able to offer me some guidance. My portfolio is not as simple as some people here recommend, but I like the idea of tilting towards small cap and...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jun 22, 2018 5:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 28 year old investor [Australia]
Replies: 17
Views: 1125

Re: 28 year old investor [Australia]

Forget about the inheritance. Wipe it from your brain if you can. My unsolicited advice, outright refusal of the inheritance ahead of time is likely to be better for your character as a man and future successes, more likely than not. Thanks for your advice. This is what I'm going to do. I want to b...