Search found 4832 matches

by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE10 nearing nosebleed territory?
Replies: 322
Views: 43537

Re: Shiller PE10 nearing nosebleed territory?

Much better valuations exist in International markets. I think they will outperform the US Famous last words? It is quite amazing to read the first few pots here, and duly note that they were written circa 2.5 years ago. Not being long the market during that time would have proven to be a big mista...
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434589

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I don't keep "dry powder" to buy on dips. Everything I intend to invest, is invested. Guess I can only take advantage of "sales" that coincide with my Jan Roth investments or my bi-weekly contributions. Darn. That's probably the best way to do it, but I'm sure there a plenty of folks like me who ha...
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: time for a new car?
Replies: 26
Views: 3070

Re: time for a new car?

Pro - You want a new car Con - From your description it doesn't sound like you need a new car. well said...the age old dilemma between a person's wants and their actual needs... No-one actually ever needs a new car (unless of course the old one explodes, and even then you don't need a new one). It'...
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A perspective on the current selloff in the S&P 500
Replies: 6
Views: 2924

A perspective on the current selloff in the S&P 500

Wonderful chart from Doug Short: http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/markets/SPX-drawdowns.png So, far there have been 14 selloffs greater than 5% since the bottom in March 2009, including this one. The current one is still garden-variety as these have gone. It's worse than 8 of the pre...
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434589

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I'm obviously talking about a situation where the investor has a wad of cash he'd like to put into stocks. If it were already in there, there's no need for a formula for getting into the market, comprende?
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston
Replies: 71
Views: 8223

Re: Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston

greg24 wrote:While we're debating a "bond bubble", the equity market has gone down as much in one week as you could expect a bond bubble to go down in a year.
And the bond bubble has become even more bubble-licious (at least treasuries) as all the rats leaving the U.S.S. S&P are scrambling for bonds.
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE10 nearing nosebleed territory?
Replies: 322
Views: 43537

Re: Shiller PE10 nearing nosebleed territory?

TorturedRegret wrote:Interesting to note the market (SPY) is up over 25% since this post.
PE10 is now at 25. A lot lower than '00 and '08.
That is interesting. Even after today's hit, the S&P is up by 29% since the original post, while CAPE is up just 5% from the level then. What to make of it?
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: time for a new car?
Replies: 26
Views: 3070

Re: time for a new car?

Consider that the trade-in value of your 04 Accord is probably about 2-cents at this point and ask yourself if you could replace it for less money. When you say "no", you will have your answer. I'm in the same boat with my 02 CRV and was offered $1500 in trade on a new car. Since I spend more than $...
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434589

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

There must be some sort of rule pertaining to buying while the market is going down the tank. I ran across one just recently that might work: at the first trigger point (say down 10% for purpose of argument), deploy 25% of your wad and then begin DCAing in the rest over whatever period seems right t...
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434589

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

backpacker wrote:
Browser wrote:Mr. Market to Earth -- have I got your attention? :?:
Earth: "Eh? We couldn't hear you. Too much noise."
Guess I'll have to amp it up then.
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434589

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

For those following such things, the S&P has just crashed through it's 200-day moving average this week like a hot knife through butter. That's probably not good.
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434589

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

You see how it happens, don't you? Big market drop right out of the blue catches everyone who was standing by the exits with their pants down. They'll never learn. Now the pundits are all digging up explanations and pointing out that they "knew" it was coming. Now they get to twist in the wind waiti...
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Smartphone woes
Replies: 12
Views: 3359

Re: Smartphone woes

I suppose you could have read the reviews, in which case about the 5th one down you can read: When I took it out of the package, I thought I'd have to return it because it wanted me to activate it but a quick search on the internet informed me that all you have to do is press volume up, volume down,...
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434589

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Mr. Market to Earth -- have I got your attention? :?:
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434589

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Down almost 300 on the DOW today on top of the 300+ loss yesterday. Is this getting anybody's attention yet? This guy nailed it to the day: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-timer-tom-mcclellan-sees-stocks-set-up-for-ugly-decline-as-early-as-thursday-2015-08-17?dist=lcountdown Even broken clo...
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434589

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I'm happy -- I've been keeping my beak dry for a long time waiting for a nice drink. Now comes the problem of when to grab for the falling knife. :confused :confused
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What about the Ford Edge? [Revised for 2015 model]
Replies: 90
Views: 14159

Re: What about the Ford Edge? [Revised for 2015 model]

OK. I've driven everything else on the planet so maybe I should give the new Murano a shot. I can always cover my eyes when approaching and leaving it. But it looks like the "fins" on the rear end would really obstruct visibility on the thing. I hate when that happens.
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434589

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Down almost 300 on the DOW today on top of the 300+ loss yesterday. Is this getting anybody's attention yet? This guy nailed it to the day:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/market ... lcountdown
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434589

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Why is there a sell off? I haven't seen the market drop this fast... ever. I've only been in for 2 years. VTI has dropped about $6 this week. In the absence of good news, the market goes down. That means with bad news, the market goes down and it also means that with no news, the market goes down. ...
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What about the Ford Edge? [Revised for 2015 model]
Replies: 90
Views: 14159

Re: What about the Ford Edge? [Revised for 2015 model]

I loved the previous-gen Murano when I drove one a couple years ago. Luxo interior, very good ride and handling, nice size. I thought it was competitive with Lexus and Acura offerings at the time, even though that didn't seem to be the prevailing view. But I'm not so fond of the body sculpture this ...
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434589

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

First, the bad news is that the DOW is down about 8.6% from it's high in May. :( Now the good news - the DCAers are planning a party to celebrate their recent decision not to lump sum. :D
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434589

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Sorry, what are you all seeing? I'm not sure I see it... http://s18.postimg.org/5j4382kt5/Captura_de_pantalla_2015_08_21_a_las_9_42_41_AM.png From a distance the world looks blue and green And the snow capped mountains white From a distance the ocean meets the stream And the eagle takes to flight F...
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434589

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The Bogleheads forum may be the only place in the world where people actually seem to celebrate losing money in the stock market. :oops: Ever see the film "Alice in Wonderland"?
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434589

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Wow. This is getting ugly fast today. DOW down 184 at the open and SPEE down 20. Wheeeee!
by Browser
Thu Aug 20, 2015 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A deeper look at gold. What's the "right" price?
Replies: 45
Views: 4085

Re: A deeper look at gold. What's the "right" price?

Haha - Browser, I am all-in with my 5% bullion allocation for (I certainly hope!) 20+ years...nedsaid, we all admire Buffett but throwing his name into this thread adds no value...what's his perspective on the intrinsic value of the assets I mentioned? If Buffett says 'own the S&P 500 and nothing e...
by Browser
Thu Aug 20, 2015 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A deeper look at gold. What's the "right" price?
Replies: 45
Views: 4085

Re: A deeper look at gold. What's the "right" price?

Unless you think you could hold gold, gold miners, commodities, and all that stuff for the long pull (at least 15 years, probably 20+) I don't see why a Boglehead long term buy and hold investor would even consider these kinds of assets. We should be able to agree that setting an appropriate asset a...
by Browser
Thu Aug 20, 2015 9:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What about the Ford Edge? [Revised for 2015 model]
Replies: 90
Views: 14159

Re: What about the Ford Edge? [Revised for 2015 model]

^^^ Browser - that was confusing me as well. I merged your 2015 Edge thread into the earlier one and retitled the combined thread. I also made an update in the first post. That being said, I can also help you with some opinions. Posted elsewhere, I drove both the 2015 Edge and 2015 Escape. Edge: Fi...
by Browser
Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What about the Ford Edge? [Revised for 2015 model]
Replies: 90
Views: 14159

Re: 2015 Ford Edge

I'm fishing BH lake to see if anyone else has checked the 2015 out or even has bought one and what your thoughts are There is a recent thread on the Ford Edge: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=169238 Started by you. I know, but I was attempting to gather intelligence on the 2015 Edg...
by Browser
Thu Aug 20, 2015 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many here follow Bogle's "no international" theory?
Replies: 82
Views: 8148

Re: How many here follow Bogle's "no international" theory?

zaboomafoozarg wrote:1/3 of my portfolio is international, both stocks and bonds.

Mainly because I like thirds.
Then why not 1/3 in the U.S. instead? Any third should be as good as any other, right? And the third thing I'd like to say is that I like your way of thinking.
by Browser
Thu Aug 20, 2015 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A deeper look at gold. What's the "right" price?
Replies: 45
Views: 4085

Re: A deeper look at gold. What's the "right" price?

Well, there's always the unending debate about viewing assets in isolation vs. the total portfolio. In isolation, gold is a terrible asset as shown by the fact you could have gotten the same or better return from a savings account. My position is that I (and most humans I know) simply cannot take th...
by Browser
Thu Aug 20, 2015 7:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What about the Ford Edge? [Revised for 2015 model]
Replies: 90
Views: 14159

Re: 2015 Ford Edge

I've personally learned to stay away from American-made cars. I stick with Honda now. - Tim Couldn't agree more. We made the mistake of buying a barely-driven 2013 Ford Escape and it has had numerous issues, one of which is affecting the engine and transmission and the dealer is unable to find the ...
by Browser
Thu Aug 20, 2015 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434589

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Well, we're headed down nearly 200 points so far today. If this keeps tracking we'll be looking at DOW 17,000 in the rearview mirror soon. Always good to do a risk tolerance check during these downdrafts -- you never know when Mr. Market is going to throw another fit... What I said. DOW closed at 1...
by Browser
Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434589

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

What time is it? Time to avoid bonds Time to buy some gold. Time to invest in China. Time to cover your shorts. Time to pick the right stocks. Time for some internationals. Time to deploy your dry powder. Time to blame the wishy washy Fed. Time to invest in Emerging Markets. Time to get some money ...
by Browser
Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A deeper look at gold. What's the "right" price?
Replies: 45
Views: 4085

Re: A deeper look at gold. What's the "right" price?

The real problem with gold is that it has "stock-like volatility and cash-like returns", at least over the long run. From 1975-2014 (1975 was the first year that US citizens could legally own gold after the dollar-gold peg was lifted), gold has returned 4.2% annually while money market cash has retu...
by Browser
Thu Aug 20, 2015 9:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What about the Ford Edge? [Revised for 2015 model]
Replies: 90
Views: 14159

2015 Ford Edge

[Thread merged into here, see below (page 2). --admin LadyGeek] 2015 Edge is a new model. Test drove one yesterday and am considering it. Ford is running some good incentives right now. I'm fishing BH lake to see if anyone else has checked the 2015 out or even has bought one and what your thoughts ...
by Browser
Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434589

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Well, we're headed down nearly 200 points so far today. If this keeps tracking we'll be looking at DOW 17,000 in the rearview mirror soon. Always good to do a risk tolerance check during these downdrafts -- you never know when Mr. Market is going to throw another fit...
by Browser
Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cancer (and expensive medical expenses) during early retirement
Replies: 29
Views: 3917

Re: Cancer (and expensive medical expenses) during early retirement

Good point about the costs of medications to treat cancer, which can be exorbitantly high. For Medicare folks such as myself that would fall under Part D coverage. I have a question about that. If you currently are on a low cost Part D plan, if you are diagnosed with cancer and start incurring costs...
by Browser
Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many here follow Bogle's "no international" theory?
Replies: 82
Views: 8148

Re: How many here follow Bogle's "no international" theory?

Thanks simplegift. That's the sort of data I was interested in and didn't know if it was available. I sort of like the 25% to international, which gives about 50% revenue exposure to the US and 50% foreign. Interesting that this would be roughly consistent with Bogle's suggestion to invest no more t...
by Browser
Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A deeper look at gold. What's the "right" price?
Replies: 45
Views: 4085

Re: A deeper look at gold. What's the "right" price?

I thought this was a bogleheads forum, but then I read that "Rick Ferri thinks gold is worth about $500/oz"...and "Larry's post suggests...about $825"...both far off current market levels...I respect both Rick and Larry very much, but I believe more in capital market efficiency than in the prognost...
by Browser
Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cancer (and expensive medical expenses) during early retirement
Replies: 29
Views: 3917

Re: Cancer (and expensive medical expenses) during early retirement

Of course, if you can hang in there until you are 65 and Medicare-eligible, traditional Medicare is indemnity health insurance. Which is a reason I've avoided a Medicare Advantage Plan. If you have a difficult disease, you want to be able to go the the best hospital you can for diagnosis and treatme...
by Browser
Wed Aug 19, 2015 9:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cancer (and expensive medical expenses) during early retirement
Replies: 29
Views: 3917

Re: Cancer (and expensive medical expenses) during early retirement

It's stressful enough to have a potentially fatal illness without worrying about how you will pay for it... I hear you there. But in my experience people who haven't been there don't really get it. Before I got hit with cancer, I didn't get it either. I was just lucky to get through it without fina...
by Browser
Wed Aug 19, 2015 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many here follow Bogle's "no international" theory?
Replies: 82
Views: 8148

Re: How many here follow Bogle's "no international" theory?

http://ei.marketwatch.com//Multimedia/2015/08/19/Photos/ZH/MW-DS526_sp_reg_20150819104334_ZH.jpg?uuid=ab0e6ac4-4680-11e5-9030-0015c588e0f6 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500-companies-generate-barely-over-half-their-revenue-at-home-2015-08-19 Since US companies are already deriving half their ...
by Browser
Wed Aug 19, 2015 5:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cancer (and expensive medical expenses) during early retirement
Replies: 29
Views: 3917

Re: Cancer (and expensive medical expenses) during early retirement

Just my view on the type of health insurance to consider. I was diagnosed with cancer several years ago when employed and covered by a PPO health plan. Cancer is a very difficult disease to correctly diagnose and treat. Depending on the type of cancer, you might well need to seek treatment at a majo...
by Browser
Wed Aug 19, 2015 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston
Replies: 71
Views: 8223

Re: Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston

The scenario where there is a rapid spike in rates and equities flounder or fall would be a big spike in inflation. I don't see why this would be true. The causal order is usually the reverse: a spike in inflation followed by a rise in rates. I think Rick wrote about this a while back, pointing out...
by Browser
Wed Aug 19, 2015 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A deeper look at gold. What's the "right" price?
Replies: 45
Views: 4085

Re: A deeper look at gold. What's the "right" price?

So what optimal holding period are you discussing? You said annual is too short but more than a decade is too long. 5 years? I'm not advocating holding gold for any length of time. Just pointing out that it hasn't done much for you over long time periods longer than a decade at the most, so long-te...
by Browser
Wed Aug 19, 2015 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston
Replies: 71
Views: 8223

Re: Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston

The scenario where there is a rapid spike in rates and equities flounder or fall would be a big spike in inflation. I don't see why this would be true. The causal order is usually the reverse: a spike in inflation followed by a rise in rates. I think Rick wrote about this a while back, pointing out...
by Browser
Wed Aug 19, 2015 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston
Replies: 71
Views: 8223

Re: Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston

I listened to his two interviews and he basically says that "normal" interest rates have always been in the 4% - 5% area for milennia, going back to ancient Greece even; these rates must be "programmed into" human preferences. So, he sees rates reverting back to these levels, perhaps violently, and ...
by Browser
Wed Aug 19, 2015 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston
Replies: 71
Views: 8223

Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston

In two television interviews in recent days, Greenspan said interest rates could shoot higher and derail the economy when the bubble bursts. The former Fed chairman says the current situation in the bond market is comparable to what happens in the stock market during an equity bubble. Greenspan sai...
by Browser
Wed Aug 19, 2015 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A deeper look at gold. What's the "right" price?
Replies: 45
Views: 4085

Re: A deeper look at gold. What's the "right" price?

Gold has proven to be a good insurance policy against short term bad stuff happening to stocks and bonds. It has also proven to be effective at lowering portfolio volatility and drawdowns over both the short and long term. Unfortunately, it has proven to be an effective reducer of absolute portfoli...
by Browser
Wed Aug 19, 2015 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own foreign stocks?
Replies: 67
Views: 6158

Re: Should you own foreign stocks?

So, just for the heck of it I took a look at holding: (1) 50% EFA + 50% UUP (dollar bullish currency ETF) vs. (2) 100% EFA (EAFE) from 2008 through 2013 (6 years), during which the return from currency (UUP) was essentially flat with an annualized SD of 10%. Portfolio #1 represents a synthetically d...