Search found 8303 matches

by Doc
Thu Jun 07, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction: june 21: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 35
Views: 4044

Re: 30 yr tips auction: june 21: 1.0% yield?

If the 30yr was ~2% then maybe yes. However, I'm more inclined to ladder 5yr TIPS for protection and wait the chances for better real yields at longer duration. But who knows if that will ever happen in a useful timeframe .... Finally somebody else besides me thinks that commiting to 1% for 30 year...
by Doc
Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]
Replies: 222
Views: 31727

Re: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]

Can someone who's upgraded confirm that I will still have the "exchange" option for my mutual funds within the upgraded brokerage account, not just "buy/sell" like ETFs? Within Vanguard mutual funds at least the answer is yes. Thanks, appreciated. That's the way my IRA brokerage works. To purchase ...
by Doc
Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's own 401k plan eliminating S&P 500 Index option!
Replies: 86
Views: 7739

Re: Vanguard's own 401k plan eliminating S&P 500 Index option!

I have a real problem if Vanguard's own employees are not capable of choosing an appropriate asset allocation from a wide variety of Vanguard's own funds. Advice for real life Vanguard Personal Advisor Services combines the best of high-touch and high-tech to help you with your real-life investing n...
by Doc
Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's own 401k plan eliminating S&P 500 Index option!
Replies: 86
Views: 7739

Re: Vanguard's own 401k plan eliminating S&P 500 Index option!

Crisium wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:06 am
This stands out to me too. SP500 vs TSM is a wash unless you really prefer avoiding small caps completely for some reason.
Not at all. If you desire to overweight small value for example the "best" way may be to use S&P500 plus a small value fund.
by Doc
Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]
Replies: 222
Views: 31727

Re: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]

jmk wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:30 am
Can someone who's upgraded confirm that I will still have the "exchange" option for my mutual funds within the upgraded brokerage account, not just "buy/sell" like ETFs?
Within Vanguard mutual funds at least the answer is yes.
by Doc
Mon Jun 04, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PenFed 3% 5 year certificates are back.
Replies: 15
Views: 2276

Re: PenFed 3% 5 year certificates are back.

For comparison the current yield on the five year Treasury is 2.77%.

No early withdrawal penalty, no state income tax and no need for another account.
by Doc
Sat Jun 02, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest calculation when moving money in MMFs and bond funds
Replies: 4
Views: 461

Re: Interest calculation when moving money in MMFs and bond funds

For bond funds, it depends on the bond fund. There is no day that you get a better or worse return and you cannot arbitrage money away from someone else by choosing the day you buy/sell. For MMF, the interest is accrued daily and you get it, so also no day is better than any other. Some bond funds ...
by Doc
Fri Jun 01, 2018 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: General Electric
Replies: 57
Views: 6869

Re: General Electric

We own GE stocks as well. I sold some this year and generated some TLH to cover the cap gain. The cost basis for our stocks is very low so we are just holding on or may gift them to our kids and let them cash it. I am puzzled though as to why it is still up and down and hovering at the $14 mark. On...
by Doc
Thu May 31, 2018 6:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury yields drop, CD yields hold steady
Replies: 16
Views: 2478

Re: Treasury yields drop, CD yields hold steady

I'm not sure what I should expect. Both Treasury and brokered CD yields have been generally rising in recent months, so I wouldn't be surprised if Treasury yields started falling, that brokered CD yields would follow suit. Apparently a lot of the Treasury buying was from foreign investors running f...
by Doc
Wed May 30, 2018 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury yields drop, CD yields hold steady
Replies: 16
Views: 2478

Re: Treasury yields drop, CD yields hold steady

I saw on the new s last night that Treasury yields had dropped, so I wondered if I'd still be able to get 2-year CDs at ... You need to be watching a business channel. The Treasury yields dropped because of a flight to quality situation based on stuff in Italy and Spain. Probably a short term event...
by Doc
Tue May 29, 2018 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US T bills - first time user
Replies: 115
Views: 9283

Re: US T bills - first time user

We see basically the same thing as before. The largest dips on the order of 5-6 basis points if graphed by maturity date, but only 1-2 bps if graphed by duration. So shorter duration explains most, but not all, of the lower yields for the higher coupon bonds. As predicted, the larger bid/ask spread...
by Doc
Mon May 28, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three fund portfolio - Which bond fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 2781

Re: Three fund portfolio - Which bond fund?

2015 wrote:
Mon May 28, 2018 11:17 am
The danger in always looking to "do something":
Bilbo Baggins wrote:It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.
Alfred E. Neuman wrote:What, me worry?
:beer
by Doc
Mon May 28, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three fund portfolio - Which bond fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 2781

Re: Three fund portfolio - Which bond fund?

But how about avoiding long bonds and securitized obligations like the mortgage backed securities that caused all the trouble in '08 by using the Bloomberg Intermediate Government Credit Index (GVI) instead. Doc: Vanguard Long-Term Bond Index and its GNMA fund actually helped Vanguard Total Bond Ma...
by Doc
Sun May 27, 2018 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US T bills - first time user
Replies: 115
Views: 9283

Re: US T bills - first time user

How about doing this again when the market is open. Maybe do it on the bid instead of the ask to see if the dips become peaks indicating perhaps a spread/liquidity difference. :idea: That will be easy enough to do, but I don't think it will make much difference. We shall see. The bid/ask spreads ar...
by Doc
Sun May 27, 2018 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US T bills - first time user
Replies: 115
Views: 9283

Re: US T bills - first time user

We still see dips for larger-coupon bonds, but the curve is much smoother than for yield vs. maturity. The largest dip in the yield vs. duration chart is 2 basis points, while in the yield vs. maturity chart there are dips as large as 5 or 6 basis points, and a number at about 4 bps (in each chart,...
by Doc
Sun May 27, 2018 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US T bills - first time user
Replies: 115
Views: 9283

Re: US T bills - first time user

What happens if you bid for bill, it gets accepted but funds are not in account at time of settlement? Do the Tbill police come? When I buy anything that I don't know what the price is going to be before execution I virtually never have assets on hand before placing the order. Unless you were bad i...
by Doc
Sun May 27, 2018 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US T bills - first time user
Replies: 115
Views: 9283

Re: US T bills - first time user

OK, I could see this. So for some reason there is higher demand than supply, pushing price up and yield down. My question is why someone would want to buy this particular bond if there are alternatives with less demand but same maturity or duration, and higher yield One reason would be to establish...
by Doc
Sun May 27, 2018 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three fund portfolio - Which bond fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 2781

Re: Three fund portfolio - Which bond fund?

yes, that was my point. There is value in knowing what's really going to make a difference and what isn't. I think any low cost, investment grade, reasonable duration bond fund is going to have similar results. I chose Total Bond Market Index Fund for The Three-Fund Portfolio primarily because of i...
by Doc
Sat May 26, 2018 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three fund portfolio - Which bond fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 2781

Re: Three fund portfolio - Which bond fund?

Elbowman wrote:
Sat May 26, 2018 1:42 pm
I think you need to plot those two bond funds on the same chart as TSM and then see if the difference is big enough to care.
I did that but the bond funds/ETFs were so overwhelmed by the TSM line that they were basically indistinguishable.
by Doc
Sat May 26, 2018 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three fund portfolio - Which bond fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 2781

Re: Three fund portfolio - Which bond fund?

Doc: Which are you referring to: "Bloomberg Intermediate Government Credit Index Fund" or "iShares Intermediate Government/Credit Bond ETF?" I want to be sure before answering your question. Best wishes. Taylor "Bloomberg Intermediate Government Credit Index" is a 1-10 Government Index . I don't th...
by Doc
Sat May 26, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US T bills - first time user
Replies: 115
Views: 9283

Re: US T bills - first time user

But wouldn't lower liquidity result in higher yields instead of lower yields? It could go either way. If you want to buy US Treasury 6.75% 08/15/2026 which has a dated date of 8/15/96 and there are very few available because they are all held by insurance companies to meet 30 year obligations when ...
by Doc
Sat May 26, 2018 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US T bills - first time user
Replies: 115
Views: 9283

Re: US T bills - first time user

For the most part, it does--particularly the big dips for high coupon bonds. I've done the pulls when market is open, and see the same big dips for high coupon bonds. Are you able to see a distinction between a duration effect and a liquidity effect? I'm thinking that high coupon might mean a bond ...
by Doc
Sat May 26, 2018 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US T bills - first time user
Replies: 115
Views: 9283

Re: US T bills - first time user

Kevin M wrote:
Sat May 26, 2018 12:20 pm
Here is a chart of ask yields for bonds maturing in 3-5 years, just pulled from Fidelity.
Looking at this type of detail during non-market hours is questionable. See if it holds up on Monday.
by Doc
Sat May 26, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three fund portfolio - Which bond fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 2781

Re: Three fund portfolio - Which bond fund?

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Sat May 26, 2018 12:12 pm
I could not find the "Bloomberg Intermediate Government Credit Index Fund. GVI is the ticker for: iShares Intermediate Government/Credit Bond ETF?
You are correct but I don't see any reason to make a distinction between a "fund" and an ETF for the current purpose.
by Doc
Sat May 26, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three fund portfolio - Which bond fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 2781

Three fund portfolio - Which bond fund?

When we talk about the three fund portfolio most of us think the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index (TBTLX). But how about avoiding long bonds and securitized obligations like the mortgage backed securities that caused all the trouble in '08 by using the Bloomberg Intermediate Government Credit...
by Doc
Thu May 24, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US T bills - first time user
Replies: 115
Views: 9283

Re: US T bills - first time user

What I don't know, but I'm sure can be found out with an ounce of cleverness and the search engine at treasurydirect, is whether the 54.11% cited above includes the non-competitive bids filled as well as the partially filled competitive bids-at-highest-accepted-yield. The volume of non-competitive ...
by Doc
Sun May 20, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Yields and Federal Funds Rate
Replies: 30
Views: 2666

Re: Bond Yields and Federal Funds Rate

We often see comments like, "The Fed is going to raise interest rates, so bond yields will increase and bond values will fall". This represents a a misunderstanding of the relationship between the federal funds rate (FFR) and bond yields. We can see that if we carefully inspect a chart of the targe...
by Doc
Sat May 19, 2018 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend / no dividend index funds?
Replies: 30
Views: 2702

Re: Dividend / no dividend index funds?

drk wrote:
Sat May 19, 2018 4:44 pm
It won't be perfect, but you could try Vanguard small/mid/large growth funds in taxable and their value complements in tax-advantaged.
That's an idea worth considering
by Doc
Sat May 19, 2018 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 320
Views: 42902

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

The agency bonds are rated AA+ because that is the rating of the US Government. So, same rating as Treasuries. Hmmnn. United States federal government credit-rating downgrades The 2011 S&P downgrade was the first time the government was given a rating below AAA. S&P had announced a negative outlook...
by Doc
Sat May 19, 2018 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Yields and Federal Funds Rate
Replies: 30
Views: 2666

Re: Bond Yields and Federal Funds Rate

Spread of the ten and the FFR

Image
by Doc
Sat May 19, 2018 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend / no dividend index funds?
Replies: 30
Views: 2702

Re: Dividend / no dividend index funds?

Do any funds like this exist? I for one would love to use them, assuming expenses are low. You could try using Vanguard's "Chose your mutual funds" screen at https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/list#/mutual-funds/asset-class/month-end-returns and near the bottom of the "filter" put a check i...
by Doc
Fri May 18, 2018 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: more rotten service from Vanguard [ACH transfer, fund availability]
Replies: 26
Views: 3357

Re: more rotten service from Vanguard [ACH transfer, fund availability]

Re: ACH transfers If you initiate an ACH transfer with a pull from your bank to your VBS account the money is available to trade immediately but not wthdrawl from the account. If you push the transfer from your bank to VBS it may take several days. The time it takes to push from VBS may vary based o...
by Doc
Wed May 16, 2018 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar - Changes at Vanguard, but Our Confidence Remains
Replies: 4
Views: 1113

Re: Morningstar - Changes at Vanguard, but Our Confidence Remains

It implies the departure was unplanned. I don't think it tells me anything about their depth. It's not unreasonable to take a bit of time to decide whom to hire or promote. OK. Unplanned departure - agreed. I'm comparing the situation with the Gross departure from Pimco where the fund management wa...
by Doc
Wed May 16, 2018 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar - Changes at Vanguard, but Our Confidence Remains
Replies: 4
Views: 1113

Re: Morningstar - Changes at Vanguard, but Our Confidence Remains

The thing that bothers me most was "The search is still on. Vanguard is looking to hire a portfolio manager to lead their corporate bond desk." That tells me that Vanguard doesn't have any depth in the fund's manager team unlike Pimco's PTTRX where other managers already on the team stepped up to th...
by Doc
Wed May 16, 2018 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5 yr CD up to 3.41% APY, NO EWP for seniors in IRA, but with catch
Replies: 43
Views: 5593

Re: 5 yr CD up to 3.41% APY, NO EWP for seniors in IRA, but with catch

Kevin M wrote:
Wed May 16, 2018 10:54 am
Really? 5-year CMT for yesterday was 2.92%, and right now I see 2.929/2.922 (bid/ask) for the 1.75% note maturing 5/15/2023.
I read it off the chart wrong. My bad.
by Doc
Wed May 16, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curves-Treasury, CD, AA/AAA muni
Replies: 93
Views: 9686

Re: Yield Curves-Treasury, CD, AA/AAA muni

Be aware of the possible delay you have if you want to sell a Treasury held at Treasury direct. To sell a Treasury note held in TreasuryDirect or Legacy Treasury Direct, first transfer the note to a bank, broker, or dealer, then ask the bank, broker, or dealer to sell it for you. https://www.treasur...
by Doc
Wed May 16, 2018 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5 yr CD up to 3.41% APY, NO EWP for seniors in IRA, but with catch
Replies: 43
Views: 5593

Re: 5 yr CD up to 3.41% APY, NO EWP for seniors in IRA, but with catch

At 2:20 PM yesterday the yield on the five Treasury was 3.3% about 2.9%. My error thanks Kevin.

No hassles with what organization you belong to, how old you are, how long it takes to transfer money, and no state tax if in a taxable account. :D

Edited to correct error.
by Doc
Mon May 14, 2018 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 104
Views: 12877

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

I'm short of time so I'm going to piecemeal my thoughts. The most recently auctioned 5-year note is CUSIP 9128284L1 maturing 4/30/2023 with coupon 2.75%. The bid yield for this bond is 2.843% (price 99.47), so equal to the CMT data when rounded to two decimal places. In my modeling I would assume a ...
by Doc
Sun May 13, 2018 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 104
Views: 12877

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

… ... Re Roll Yield: Kevin: “But since you bring it up, it's kind of ironic that the paper you reference is pretty much in line with the way I explain it” That’s what I tried to say – it’s semantics. Kevin: Since a zero-coupon bond has no income component, only a capital return component, I think i...
by Doc
Sat May 12, 2018 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 104
Views: 12877

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

Doc is factoring in what he calls roll yield assuming a static yield curve. If we assume bonds bought at par (100), we can break out income return and capital return, with the income return being equal to the coupon rates (yield = coupon rate at price = 100)--again, assuming static yield curve. Kev...
by Doc
Fri May 11, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 104
Views: 12877

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

My actual claim is this: when a direct CD with EWP has a positive yield spread to a treasury of equivalent maturity, as is not infrequently the case, it is a win for an investor . One may or may not beat inflation but it is not as if one could do better per unit of pure term risk. It's not that sim...
by Doc
Thu May 10, 2018 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 104
Views: 12877

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

But isn't it the case that even if the bond fund NAV falls, you only lose money if you sell, right? If you are holding long term, you get your expected interest rate and no harm, right? You will get your expected return if "long term" equals the fund's duration. If they are not equal all bets are o...
by Doc
Thu May 10, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any issues with upgrading Vanguard taxable account to brokerage?
Replies: 19
Views: 1831

Re: Any issues with upgrading Vanguard taxable account to brokerage?

It is interesting/strange/puzzling that an "upgrade" results in the loss of functionality. I would think that an improvement in function would be more appropriate. If you previously had both a mutual fund account and a brokerage account the sweep account was only in the mutual fund account and an e...
by Doc
Thu May 10, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 104
Views: 12877

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

I am going to be meeting with my Schwab rep (not paid advisor), on fixed income.He is suggesting laddered short term bonds,since if held to maturity there is no loss of nominal principal. However from what I have read on this site, if you have a short term bond fund of same average duration and hol...
by Doc
Thu May 10, 2018 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 104
Views: 12877

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

Agreed. I would also point out that the article's noting that a large RIA firm buys enough volume only to pay 2-4 bp transaction cost on average for bond/CD purchases is a red herring in that individual investors only get to participate in these wholesale purchases because they are paying an asset-...
by Doc
Wed May 09, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Least Tax Efficient / Highest TR Fixed income in a 401k
Replies: 7
Views: 483

Re: Least Tax Efficient / Highest TR Fixed income in a 401k

Anyway, if anyone has thoughts on funds other than the Pimco Total Return and Harbor Bond Fund (both of which I'll be evaluating), they'd be welcome. Morningstar Screen Your Screen Summary: (Fund Category = Long-Term Bond) and (Distinct Portfolio Only = Yes) and (Morningstar Rating >= Three Stars) ...
by Doc
Wed May 09, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Least Tax Efficient / Highest TR Fixed income in a 401k
Replies: 7
Views: 483

Re: Least Tax Efficient / Highest TR Fixed income in a 401k

A quick Google search got this from the federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

"What We Do and Don’t Know about the Term Premium"
https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research ... m-premium/
by Doc
Tue May 08, 2018 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Least Tax Efficient / Highest TR Fixed income in a 401k
Replies: 7
Views: 483

Re: Least Tax Efficient / Highest TR Fixed income in a 401k

As to duration, I'm thinking that I ought to be in longer-term, eating some interest-rate risk to better match my investments with my 20-30 year time horizon. You take on a lot of risk with not very much extra return when you go out that far. If you want to do it consider TIPS. Grok has multiple on...
by Doc
Tue May 08, 2018 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoid Emerging Markets due to stricter securities regulation in Developed Markets? Lessons from SZSE..Maybe not?
Replies: 26
Views: 2772

Re: Avoid Emerging Markets due to stricter securities regulation in Developed Markets? Lessons from SZSE..Maybe not?

Fair enough. I prefer tea / Yerba Maté anyway which is much cheaper than starbucks. It allows me more discretionary funds for that avocado toast. Figures. It's sort of like Emerging Markets. In the U.S., yerba mate is widely available in health food stores and online. Proponents of yerba mate say t...
by Doc
Tue May 08, 2018 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoid Emerging Markets due to stricter securities regulation in Developed Markets? Lessons from SZSE..Maybe not?
Replies: 26
Views: 2772

Re: Avoid Emerging Markets due to stricter securities regulation in Developed Markets? Lessons from SZSE..Maybe not?

The OP was a correction of one of the popular narratives against EM. My point was only that for myself and perhaps many others the little extra return from EM is not worth the agro. If you are only mid-20's you probably don't worry too much about ulcers and that little bitty teeny weeny bit of extr...