Search found 36307 matches

by nisiprius
Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Inversion! Real estate prices, and more.
Replies: 25
Views: 2128

Re: Bond Inversion! Real estate prices, and more.

nedsaid wrote:
Mon Dec 03, 2018 10:28 pm
I don't know what a secondary recession is.
A secondary recession is when they march out of the church playing Mendelssohn.
by nisiprius
Tue Dec 04, 2018 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve = Inverted
Replies: 58
Views: 5969

Re: Yield Curve = Inverted

Those who believe that inverted yield curves are good predictors of recessions, and that what we are seeing now already qualifies as an inverted yield curve... ...show of hands, please... do you agree that if no recession starts before, say, June 2019, the prediction has been falsified? (Mind you, w...
by nisiprius
Tue Dec 04, 2018 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve = Inverted
Replies: 58
Views: 5969

Re: Yield Curve = Inverted

I just looked at the article more carefully and I can't even tell what they're talking about. They say "The spread between 3- and 5-year yields fell to negative 0.6 basis points Monday." Their numbers seem different from the Treasury's. One basis point is 1/100th of a percent. So 0.6 basis points w...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 03, 2018 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve = Inverted
Replies: 58
Views: 5969

Re: Yield Curve = Inverted

Yield curve and GDP growth, November, 2018 Looks like the Cleveland Fed bases these predictions on the difference between the 3-month rate and the 10-year rate, with no other numbers factoring in, and as of November 23rd stated a 13.64% probability of recession: https://imgur.com/xb8bCYq.png I supp...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 03, 2018 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve = Inverted
Replies: 58
Views: 5969

Re: Yield Curve = Inverted

Consider the statement "an inverted yield curve predicts a recession." 1) Would some point me to the appropriate and convincing study that says so, and 2) Make clear what definition of "inverted yield curve" is used in that study? For example, does "yield curve" mean the data that is published by th...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 03, 2018 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve = Inverted
Replies: 58
Views: 5969

Re: Yield Curve = Inverted

Not according to whatever criteria are used by the website that provides the dynamic yield curve. They say that it's... https://imgur.com/V1K6as2.png ..."normal." True, that's from November 30th. But the Treasury site is showing: Date 1 Mo 2 Mo 3 Mo 6 Mo 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 7 Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 30 Yr 12...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 03, 2018 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Steak Dinner Annuity Pitch"
Replies: 60
Views: 7165

Re: "The Steak Dinner Annuity Pitch"

Bolderboy, thank you so much for the story you told above, here.
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 03, 2018 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Big endowments don't beat simple 60/40 over 10 yrs.
Replies: 25
Views: 3183

Re: Big endowments don't beat simple 60/40 over 10 yrs.

It is a problem of portfolio creep. One can start out with a simple and effective investment strategy but evolve into greater complexity because you keep learning more and want to apply what you learn. Doubtless, the folks on these endowment committees are bright people and don't want to miss out. ...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 03, 2018 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Understanding volatility in ultrashort bond funds]
Replies: 49
Views: 5228

Re: [Understanding volatility in ultrashort bond funds]

b0B, I don't know whether floating rate bond funds are customarily included in lists of "ultrashort bond funds." Since you've been looking at them, from the thread title and initial reference to FLOT and FLRN, I gather that they are. If I've learned anything at all from this thread, it seems to me t...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 03, 2018 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS Mutual Funds for emergency funds
Replies: 8
Views: 870

Re: TIPS Mutual Funds for emergency funds

I've yet to read anything with serious insight or data on the topic of emergency funds. I think bond funds are fine. I include them as a "second tier" when thinking about my emergency fund. With regard to bond funds as emergency funds, there are two issues: having an unplanned exigency force you to ...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 03, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Big endowments don't beat simple 60/40 over 10 yrs.
Replies: 25
Views: 3183

Re: Big endowments don't beat simple 60/40 over 10 yrs.

They have different goals than individual investors (ie, their horizon is perpetuity rather than double digit years). And thus, as surely as night follows day, their investments differ from individual investors. Yes, that's what people say. Gregory Bateson's regrettably apocryphal story is that Oxf...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 03, 2018 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Business Cycle Investing
Replies: 4
Views: 553

Re: Business Cycle Investing

...1) Buy stocks (S&P 500) on the date in which the NBER declares a recession is underway (remember this is going to occur on average 6 months after the recession began)... That's absurd. I can't find the actual article, could you give a direct link or a series of click directions to get to it so I...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 02, 2018 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?
Replies: 94
Views: 5946

Re: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?

What percent of Managers beat the market before they charge their Fees? According to S&P research, about 20% of U.S. domestic equity funds beat the market before fees. It drops to 12% after fees. https://us.spindices.com/documents/research/research-spiva-institutional-scorecard-how-much-do-fees-aff...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 02, 2018 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Blog] Are you getting enough diversification from your alternatives allocation?
Replies: 2
Views: 406

Re: [Blog] Are you getting enough diversification from your alternatives allocation?

...It was interesting that Invesco said that many of the Alts had fairly high correlation to equities, something that folks are trying to diversify from. Another frustration, if you invest in alts you need to be in the "right" ones. My reading of the blog posting was "most alts are no good, so inve...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 02, 2018 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Net Worth Question - Current Value or Personal Contribution?
Replies: 31
Views: 2083

Re: Need help understanding Compound Interest

P.S. Do you know the "rule of 72?" It's reasonably accurate and sometimes helpful for thinking about these things. It says that if you divide 72 by the average annual growth rate, the result is the number of years it takes to double your money. 72 / 5 = 14.4 years, call it 15, so 5% growth per year ...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Net Worth Question - Current Value or Personal Contribution?
Replies: 31
Views: 2083

Re: Need help understanding Compound Interest

Your thinking is basically correct. I have some notes. If I have a portfolio valued at $400,000 TODAY , and I, personally, stop adding a single penny to this investment, assuming 5% Average annual return over 30, years, I would have $1.72M. Is this a correct statement? It is correct but let me add s...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 02, 2018 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL
Replies: 67
Views: 5536

Re: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL

Nearly *EVERY* sales pitch that the crypto-coin shillers have made has been met with a complete and crushing defeat: Which coin do you mean exactly?? If you speak about Bitcoin, maybe. Other coins, not necessarily true... But, yeah, I've thrown in some hints about other technology but this thread i...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 02, 2018 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?
Replies: 94
Views: 5946

Re: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?

Most data, thanks I think to regulations, is after the expense ratio. (It doesn't include sales loads for load funds, or transaction costs). It is my personal belief , just an impression, that many managers probably do have the skill to generate something like 0.5%/year in alpha through clever selec...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 02, 2018 9:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Manager suddenly passed away - New manager ethical dilemma
Replies: 23
Views: 4041

Re: Manager suddenly passed away - New manager ethical dilemma

It's definitely time to start a job search. There's nothing you can do if the boss's boss isn't clued in. However, this most emphatically not a recommendation at all, it's just an anecdote. The point is don't give up hope entirely. Sometimes upper management not only knows but is willing to act--slo...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 02, 2018 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Three Simple Rules of Investing"
Replies: 19
Views: 6681

Re: "Three Simple Rules of Investing"

For some reason, I had trouble finding Pfau's book review from the link Taylor gave. This one works for me: The 3 Simple Rules of Investing , by Michael Edesess, Kwok L. Tsui, Carol Fabbri, and George Peacock. The biggest thing that stands out is the support for TIPS and I bonds. I bonds represent a...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 01, 2018 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TD security: is more, more?
Replies: 7
Views: 762

Re: TD security: is more, more?

What position am I in to judge the security of a site? Who knows? It's obvious enough that you can make things awkward, complicated, and clunky without necessarily making them secure. There was a period of several years when, every time I logged into Treasury Direct, it said that it didn't recognize...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 01, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Disaster That Is General Electric Company Stock
Replies: 53
Views: 9961

Re: The Disaster That Is General Electric Company Stock

Any chance it will become Government Electric, just like Government Motors? It caught my eye for a while because it was the best valued stock in the Dow with a hefty dividend. I decided against investing when Warren Buffet made a public statement that he wouldn't invest in it at that price (just un...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 01, 2018 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Steak Dinner Annuity Pitch"
Replies: 60
Views: 7165

Re: "The Steak Dinner Annuity Pitch"

...(PS - I used to attend free dinners like this until I was finally reeled in, learned my lesson [the hard way] and swore off!)... This. And thank you so much for saying this, BolderBoy. I hope someday you'll give us the details if you haven't, already. Salespeople are not stupid. They know that t...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 01, 2018 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me understand money market mutual funds
Replies: 7
Views: 877

Re: Help me understand money market mutual funds

What exactly is a money market mutual fund? What's the difference between Vanguard Prime and Federal money market funds? Why would anybody favor one over a simple high yield savings account? Rates for many of the last several years have been just a few basis points. Just trying to understand. Is th...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 01, 2018 9:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HDHP versus regular health plan
Replies: 12
Views: 1272

Re: HDHP versus regular health plan

The decision to go with a high deductible health plan is a decision to take on extra risk--limited to an amount you can afford--in order to save the amount of money the insurance company takes as profit when they take on the risk. In my state, and, I assume everywhere, insurance companies are requir...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 01, 2018 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL
Replies: 67
Views: 5536

Re: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL

...Actually there are miners because it is profitable for them to do so. Q: What happens when all the coins are mined and miners have electricity bills but no income from coins?... My understanding is that this is already happening, the profit margins from mining have become slim to negative, there...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are REITS a separate asset class but healthcare is not?
Replies: 55
Views: 3004

Re: Why are REITS a separate asset class but healthcare is not?

...A long time back, REITs were excluded from many of the broad market indices (at least the S&P 500, but I think others too)... Are you sure? I can't confirm this in a simple web search. Do you have a link or other reference? At lot of people misunderstood what happened in 2016 and somehow thought...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Understanding volatility in ultrashort bond funds]
Replies: 49
Views: 5228

Re: Ultrashort bond funds in freefall

Barry Barnitz sent me a PM pointing me to this Bogleheads wiki article: Floating rate bonds I note: Vanguard research (August 2011) argues the following investors would benefit from including floating rate bonds in portfolios: Investors who maintain highly bond-centric portfolios (80% or higher bond...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova
Replies: 90
Views: 13210

Re: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova

https://imgur.com/vpha3HF.jpg The blue curve is Total Stock, VTSMX. The red curve is Total Stock shifted back in time about eighteen years, so that 2010-2018 overlay 1992-2000. Yes, 2010-2018 is straighter (didn't feel like it during the 2011 correction), but 1992-2000 had higher average return. An...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 30, 2018 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova
Replies: 90
Views: 13210

Re: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova

...the S&P 500 returns have been out of this world since the global financial crisis and is highly unlikely to repeat this performance in our lifetimes... 1) But half of that was just climbing out of the hole. 2) Vanguard 500 Index: 2010-2017 inclusive: CAGR 13.76%, Sharpe ratio 1.13. 1992-1999 inc...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 30, 2018 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Understanding volatility in ultrashort bond funds]
Replies: 49
Views: 5228

Re: Ultrashort bond funds in freefall

So an "ultrashort bond fund" made of floating rate bonds and one made of fixed rate bonds are completely different animals?
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 30, 2018 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Understanding volatility in ultrashort bond funds]
Replies: 49
Views: 5228

Re: Ultrashort bond funds in freefall

VUBFX, the Vanguard ultrashort bond fund looks a lot more straightforward. It has an average effective duration that's about the same as the average effective maturity... https://imgur.com/ToIpMOw.png And the composition by maturity, from Vanguard's website, makes sense, too: Under 1 Year 60.1% 1 - ...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 30, 2018 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Understanding volatility in ultrashort bond funds]
Replies: 49
Views: 5228

Re: Ultrashort bond funds in freefall

I have no idea what I'm looking at here: FLOT Exposure Breakdowns 0 - 1 Years 15.24% 1 - 2 Years 27.55% 2 - 3 Years 33.48% 3 - 5 Years 22.35% 5 - 7 Years 0.50% Cash and Derivatives 0.87% So, 1/3rd of the fund's holdings have 2-3 year maturity, and if I take a weighted average and call the 2-3 year g...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Understanding volatility in ultrashort bond funds]
Replies: 49
Views: 5228

Re: Ultrashort bond funds in freefall

I remember the Fidelity Ultrashort Bond Fund. I don't know what's in these kinds of funds, but apparently it isn't what people expected... and apparently it's really important to know. https://imgur.com/uISlEZA.png The Fidelity Ultrashort Bond Fund doesn't exist any more. Of course. I'm not seeing a...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 30, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Marriott Starwood Security breach - 500 million guests
Replies: 26
Views: 3436

Re: Marriott Starwood Security breach - 500 million guests

So, who is "Kroll" and how do I know it is safe to enroll in the "Kroll Web Watcher Monitoring Service?" Free, but only for a year. Anyone go far enough to find out if they ask for a credit card number at any point? ...I'm getting mighty tired of companies whose response to data breaches is to ask y...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 30, 2018 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Market Volatility
Replies: 29
Views: 2084

Re: Current Market Volatility

I'm staying the course. There is nothing unusual about the current market volatility. I took no special actions during the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, I took no special actions during the 2011 correction, and I am taking no special actions now. I looked over the history of the stock market, d...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 30, 2018 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are REITS a separate asset class but healthcare is not?
Replies: 55
Views: 3004

Re: Why are REITS a separate asset class but healthcare is not?

I guess the real question is, "why do you care?" Do you think "separate asset class" means "good" and "not separate asset class" means "bad?" I just shrug and do total market, but if you have high conviction that you want to overweight healthcare, I don't see why you should care whether anyone consi...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 30, 2018 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are REITS a separate asset class but healthcare is not?
Replies: 55
Views: 3004

Re: Why are REITS a separate asset class but healthcare is not?

Because it's a matter of opinion and opinions vary. MSCI and S&P Dow Jones seem perfectly happy classifying REITs as just another stock sector, part of the S&P 500. Before 2016 it wasn't even considered a sector of its own, just a subsector within "financials" sector. The fact that they're required ...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 30, 2018 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL
Replies: 67
Views: 5536

Re: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL

Wow lots of negativity on crypto here. This forum is devoted to https://imgur.com/7EAOD5B.png "Investing Advice Inspired by Jack Bogle," and Bogle did say "Avoid bitcoin like the plague. Did I make myself clear?" Of course, I don't go along with everything Bogle says, but he is a thought leader. He...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best new Mac/features for 2000-3000
Replies: 60
Views: 3841

Re: Best new Mac/features for 2000-3000

It took me a full month to decide to buy my first Mac in March of 1984, and they were in "pay the list price" mode, and I drove thirty miles with my teller's check for $3,000 for my Mac with 128K of RAM and an ImageWriter--and had to make a second trip a month later to get the cable for the ImageWri...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Are Corp Bonds Worth Risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 4971

Re: Larry Swedroe: Are Corp Bonds Worth Risk?

...During the 2008-2009 meltdown, treasuries were the only thing that actually held up in the selloff.... 1) The Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund "held up" just fine . Corporates, government-insured mortgage based securities (which Larry Swedroe has strongly objected to, at least in the past),...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What kinds of market conditions could cause a loss of principal in a MMA?
Replies: 4
Views: 615

Re: What kinds of market conditions could cause a loss of principal in a MMA?

As far as I know, it has happened exactly once. It was during the global financial crisis, and it happened to the Reserve Primary Fund, one of the biggest and oldest of all money market funds (perhaps the oldest?). On September 16, 2008 it acknowledged that due to imprudent investments that were aff...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 29, 2018 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Stock Market and Mega Cap Risk
Replies: 15
Views: 1566

Re: Total Stock Market and Mega Cap Risk

The stock market is the stock market. It always has been that way. Don't think you've discovered something unique. The stock market itself is large caps. There can't be very much difference between the S&P 500 and the total market because 80% of the money in the market is in the S&P 500 ( and the co...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 29, 2018 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Explain to me what bonds are.
Replies: 15
Views: 1333

Re: Explain to me what bonds are.

Savings "bonds" are weird. (In a good way.) Let's back up a second. Something that confuses the issue is that the word "bond," with no other qualifications, means (as far as I know) any financial instrument that is a specific promise to pay specified amounts of money on specified dates. It's the agr...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 29, 2018 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Sounds a Warning on Index Funds
Replies: 103
Views: 17955

Re: Bogle Sounds a Warning on Index Funds

mrspock wrote:
Thu Nov 29, 2018 3:01 pm
oldcomputerguy wrote:
Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:16 am
My first thought is that the article is paywalled.
:?
Open a private browser and Google the title of the article “Bogle Sounds a Warning on Index Funds” click on link and enjoy.
It isn't working for me. I don't know why not. WSJ is pretty serious about its paywall, though.
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 29, 2018 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Sounds a Warning on Index Funds
Replies: 103
Views: 17955

Re: Bogle Sounds a Warning on Index Funds

Not sure what I, as an individual index fund investor, am supposed to think or do about it. It seems to me like a "cross that bridge when we come to it." Apart from being poised to protest to my government representatives if someone gets some kind of bright idea like "let's make indexing less attrac...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 29, 2018 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL
Replies: 67
Views: 5536

Re: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL

...BUT what it does say is that the Prospectus is not a prospectus in the meaning of the EU Prospectus directive. I guess that's to rule out the protections a member of the EU would have (Switzerland is not in the EU but a broader federation with the EU). But it did rather send a chill down the spi...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Are Corp Bonds Worth Risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 4971

Re: Larry Swedroe: Are Corp Bonds Worth Risk?

...Here is a counterexample to the claim that " replacing corporate bonds with Treasuries and adding more stocks provides a better performance for similar volatility ". In other words, I'm providing a proof that the statement is false ... Alas, I don't see anywhere in Random Walker's original post,...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First year with financial planner managing IRA did worse than index fund, should I pull out?
Replies: 24
Views: 2076

Re: First year with financial planner managing IRA did worse than index fund, should I pull out?

Don't do anything in a hurry. Don't worry about calendar dates. Step 1: Read enough about investing to get a good idea of how stocks actually behave--hugely variable, even over long periods of time--and how portfolios with different "stock allocations," different percentages of stock in them, behave...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 29, 2018 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Are Corp Bonds Worth Risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 4971

Re: Larry Swedroe: Are Corp Bonds Worth Risk?

Part 1: Introduction , Appendix: Methodology Brief notes: 1) In these Monte Carlo simulations, the return for a given month is varied by randomly choosing the actual historical return or the actual historic return for an adjacent month. 2) They show the final value from $100 monthly contributions m...