Search found 33447 matches

by nisiprius
Sat Oct 21, 2017 2:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Turn fridge off when gone or leave it running?
Replies: 40
Views: 50245

Re: Turn fridge off when gone or leave it running?

I vividly remember one such "incident" in July of 1967, fresh out of college and learning computer programming for my new job. Programs, then, were input on IBM punched cards done at a keypunch machine. As I finished my "deck", and got up from the keypunch, I turned off the keypunch machine. This o...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Turn fridge off when gone or leave it running?
Replies: 40
Views: 50245

Re: Turn fridge off when gone or leave it running?

Hah! Reminds me of the endless discussions about whether it is better to turn a computer off when not in use or leave it running. Many years ago I worked for two scientists, each of whom had a PDP-11, and one of them was insistent that it not be turned off, ever. Based on an assumption that turning ...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Letter from CC company (Discover) re: current income
Replies: 31
Views: 6029

Re: Letter from CC company (Discover) re: current income

I keep getting asked this by Capital One. They say that they "need" it so that they can raise my credit line. Since I don't want them to raise my credit line, I keep ignoring it.
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?
Replies: 47
Views: 3801

Re: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?

How do you measure what "the general public" thinks? In general, the idea of doing the opposite of what "everyone else" is doing is called "contrarian investing," and it's one of various strategies people follow. None of them is the magic key to wealth. A lot of people believe in "momentum investing...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the current cryptocurrency market a bubble in the making?
Replies: 10
Views: 686

Re: Is the current cryptocurrency market a bubble in the making?

I don't know and I don't care. I wouldn't "invest" any significant sum of money in any, single, undiversified "next big thing" technology asset. It's basically a lottery. Some people will invest and some of them will win big. Some will and lose their shirt. Along the way, there will be endless stori...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: One Total Market Index Fund vs Three Different Cap Index Fund
Replies: 19
Views: 1940

Re: One Total Market Index Fund vs Three Different Cap Index Fund

So, let's use a tool I've gotten very fond of to compare the past behavior of your chosen portfolio and see how it would have been different if you'd used a total market fund instead of your three-way slice and dice. It's a no-cost web tool and whenever I've done any cross-checking it seems reliable...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: One Total Market Index Fund vs Three Different Cap Index Fund
Replies: 19
Views: 1940

Re: One Total Market Index Fund vs Three Different Cap Index Fund

What you're doing is reasonable. You should probably not change it in a hurry if you're happy with it. I'm a "total market" type myself. "What rebalancing really does for you" is a frequently discussed topic around here. Nobody is ever going to agree. Let me quickly lay out some of the "sides" in th...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon Prime - Decline in Delivery Service?
Replies: 54
Views: 4456

Re: Amazon Prime - Decline in Delivery Service?

Oddly enough, just today, a package ordered via Amazon Prime, "2-day delivery," that was scheduled to arrive today--didn't: https://s1.postimg.org/8s5wi33efj/Captura_de_pantalla_2017-10-19_a_las_9.21.28_PM.png It is probably not a coincidence that the carrier is neither UPS or USPS, but "AMZL US." N...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 19, 2017 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Investment Lessons From The 21st Century"
Replies: 16
Views: 2103

Re: "Investment Lessons From The 21st Century"

Here's another surprising thing. Roth mentions that from 2000 through 2016 inclusive, the average annualized growth rate for Total Bond was 4.98%. That means a $10,000 investment in Total Bond would have grown to $22,846. Over the same period of time, a $1,000 United States Series I savings bond gre...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a crash coming soon?
Replies: 64
Views: 5651

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Hi everyone! Rather new to the forum here. If im not wrong, bogleheads believe that: 1. There's no way to predict what will happen to the market in the short term 2. Past history is not an absolute indicator for future performance/what will happen But just by looking at this very "unscientifically"...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow more than tripled in 8 years
Replies: 6
Views: 998

Re: Dow more than tripled in 8 years

All of the commentary about how well the stock market has done "since 2009" really should take into account the fact that it had fallen down a well, nearly half of that gain was just climbing out. The great bull market of 1995-2000 was not climbing out of a well. The bull market followed a period of...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 19, 2017 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: low risk, low fee fund for older investor?
Replies: 6
Views: 625

Re: low risk, low fee fund for older investor?

Broadly speaking, for "ordinary" kinds of mutual funds such as you might find in your 401(k), risk and return depend mostly on the particular asset class the fund is holding. No mutual fund that is 100% stocks is going to be much less risky than any other 100% stocks fund, stocks are stocks, for a f...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 19, 2017 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: low risk, low fee fund for older investor?
Replies: 6
Views: 625

Re: low risk, low fee fund for older investor?

Fees are definitely worth looking at. They are what they care, you can do the math and calculate the money. Reducing expense ratios is (in my opinion) not life-transforming, and exercises that purport to show you that they are, by compounding out for twenty years, are somewhat misleading--like other...
by nisiprius
Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is a doctor's practice one of the safest and most profitable businesses?
Replies: 58
Views: 3711

Re: Is a doctor's practice one of the safest and most profitable businesses?

Another point, which I can't speak to from personal experience, is that doctors, veterinarians, etc. can and do sell their practices. Indeed, the business model for a sole-proprietorship practice pretty much assumes that you can sell the practice at the end, otherwise it isn't a very good business ...
by nisiprius
Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How many miles/years do you keep your car?
Replies: 108
Views: 7417

Re: How many miles/years do you keep your car?

We kept our last car from 2005 to 2016 at which point it had 140,000 miles... and no important problems. For whatever it's worth, we didn't want to wait for problems, and we wanted to get some of the new safety and driver-assist features--the 2005 didn't have vehicle stability control, for example. ...
by nisiprius
Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Using Jack Bogle's own words against him when it comes to international investing"
Replies: 30
Views: 3852

Re: "Using Jack Bogle's own words against him when it comes to international investing"

... Overseas investments - holdings in the corporations of other nations - are not essential, nor even necessary, to a well-diversified portfolio. For investors who disagree - and there are some valid reasons for global investing - I would recommend limiting international investments to a maximum o...
by nisiprius
Wed Oct 18, 2017 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is a doctor's practice one of the safest and most profitable businesses?
Replies: 58
Views: 3711

Re: Is a doctor's practice one of the safest and most profitable businesses?

Goldenyou says I've got this completely wrong, see below . Another point, which I can't speak to from personal experience, is that doctors, veterinarians, etc. can and do sell their practices. Indeed, the business model for a sole-proprietorship practice pretty much assumes that you can sell the pra...
by nisiprius
Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is a doctor's practice one of the safest and most profitable businesses?
Replies: 58
Views: 3711

Re: Is a doctor's practice one of the safest and most profitable businesses?

I'm not a doctor. But two examples from within my circle of medical acquaintances may show why I doubt that a doctor's career or income is particularly "safe." 1) A urologist who was a star in a community hospital who did prostatectomies. That form of surgery has been revolutionized by so-called "ro...
by nisiprius
Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why so many "reversed" pictures?
Replies: 14
Views: 2400

Re: Why so many "reversed" pictures?

It does seem to me that more and more "news" stories, even from legitimate real-news sources, especially on the Internet, are illustrating stories with rather generic stock photos or "file photos." I guess, in the minds of... someone, it is absolutely necessary for every story to have a picture to i...
by nisiprius
Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 2548

Re: Currency risk?

...Fourth, I question the motives of those believing in a 0% international allocation (or 5% or 10%). While many are simply ignorant, and others cite reasons such as currency risk for their home country bias, for a few, is their bias ultimately... bias, a behavioral error? Are some inherently biase...
by nisiprius
Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is there really a lithium battery in a USB-C-to-micro-USB adapter?
Replies: 8
Views: 671

Is there really a lithium battery in a USB-C-to-micro-USB adapter?

So I bought a Samsung Micro USB to USB-C adapter. It came in a box so big I couldn't even think what I'd ordered, and the box had a warning on the side, "CAUTION: Lithium Ion batteries. Do not load or transport package if damaged." Inside was this. The front and back sides of the adapter, a dime to ...
by nisiprius
Tue Oct 17, 2017 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon, sometime, maybe later
Replies: 68
Views: 7174

Re: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon

Oh, how I wish he had phrased it as "Sooner or later a correction is coming, and it may be a decent one."

(I.e. echoing Roger Babson's 1929 declaration that "Sooner or later a crash is coming, and it may be terrific.")
by nisiprius
Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: WPA2 protocol used by vast majority of wifi connections has been broken
Replies: 110
Views: 10283

Re: WPA2 protocol used by vast majority of wifi connections has been broken

1) It does appear that the attacker needs to be within WiFi range of my router. You can interpret that as "attacker need only be within WiFi range of my router" or "attacker must be within WiFi range of my router," but either way it does mean that the degree of risk depends on who you are and where ...
by nisiprius
Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: ‘Sure Things’ Check-In
Replies: 8
Views: 1935

Re: Swedroe: ‘Sure Things’ Check-In

I love his "sure things" articles.

It is so difficult not to be sucked in when "everybody" is sure about something. It's really important to remember just how often these broad consensus, strong conviction predictions turn out to be completely wrong.
by nisiprius
Mon Oct 16, 2017 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 2548

Re: Currency risk?

...It's probably not a big error for a US investor to have zero weight in global equities... Now, that is the key point, I think. John C. Bogle has written that "Successful investing involves doing just a few things right and avoiding serious mistakes." Nobody has ever been able to convince me that...
by nisiprius
Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me understand what happens with the new law and ACA subsidies
Replies: 80
Views: 5878

Re: Help me understand what happens with the new law and ACA subsidies

Not to get onto an actual medical topic, I think I can say that "refraction" means measuring your eyes to see if you need new glasses and determining the prescription for them. As you probably know Medicare does not pay for eyeglasses (or hearing aids!) and therefore, somewhat logically, doesn't pay...
by nisiprius
Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]
Replies: 458
Views: 38370

Re: TD Ameritrade Drops Vanguard From Revamped Commission-Free ETF Lineup TD Ameritrade will nearly triple its overall c

(Shrug) I don't know what goes on behind the scenes to make ETFs commission-free or mutual funds "no transaction fee" at a brokerage. For mutual funds, I think the fund company pays the brokerage a kickback fee of some kind. I doubt that Vanguard is willing to do this. Anyway, commission-free ETFs a...
by nisiprius
Mon Oct 16, 2017 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me understand what happens with the new law and ACA subsidies
Replies: 80
Views: 5878

Re: Help me understand what happen with the new law and ACA subsidies

...The answer was they would cover something if it was necessary . The doctor's office told me that Medicare would not pay for some part of the procedure. So how am I to know if it is necessary? I had none of this bureaucracy with my employer-funded healthcare. They paid for everything that my prim...
by nisiprius
Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 2548

Re: Currency risk?

...I just don't see any evidence that currency risk is a one way street... Nobody ever said that it was. That is a straw man argument. The argument is that currency risk a) does not add return, and b) does add risk. Therefore, it reduces the risk-adjusted return of foreign investments. I, as a U.S....
by nisiprius
Mon Oct 16, 2017 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not CDs instead of Short Term Bonds or TIPS
Replies: 24
Views: 3192

Re: Why not CDs instead of Short Term Bonds or TIPS

In my 401k, I maintain some of my "safe" portfolio. This typically consists of taxable bond funds, TIPS funds, etc. This is part of my LP. Larry would of course recommend TIPS or ST Treasuries as part of this allocation. I recognize that TIPS are to protect from "unexpected" inflation. Of course, t...
by nisiprius
Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me understand what happens with the new law and ACA subsidies
Replies: 80
Views: 5878

Re: Help me understand what happens with the new law and ACA subsidies

Moneybags1 wrote:
Sat Oct 14, 2017 12:57 pm
...I searched high and low and every media outlet is saying everyone in ACA is screwed...
This article in this media outlet is fairly heavy on information. The title summarizes the content.
Why [killing] Obamacare insurance subsidies might not matter much.
by nisiprius
Sun Oct 15, 2017 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Discipline Trumps Distraction
Replies: 3
Views: 1040

Re: Larry Swedroe: Discipline Trumps Distraction

And while he is discussing value, that seems to me to be significant in itself. It seems to me that the "factors" crowd has been quietly and gradually claiming less and less and less importance for the size factor, the first of all factors to be discovered.
by nisiprius
Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 3421

Re: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?

So, serious question--I did some cursory searches once without success. Can anyone come up with an accepted definition of the word "diversification" along with an accepted numerical measure of it, so that we could apply it and find out what represents maximum diversification by that measure? A key q...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 3421

Re: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?

Which is more diversified: a basket of 200 stocks of small companies, all in the same line of business, or a massive conglomerate with 200 divisions, each in a different line of business? Definitely 200 small companies,one scandal in one corporation can bring down 200 divisions of one company Altho...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 3421

Re: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?

What if framed the question like this: If you could only hold Apple and the bottom 1000 stocks in TSM, would you hold them at market weight?... Wait, that's a different kind of question. I don't know how to answer that one. If the entire stock market consisted of nothing but AAPL and the bottom 1,0...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 14, 2017 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 3421

Re: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?

The Vanguard Small Cap Index Fund, NAESX, goes back farther than VIOO, the Vanguard S&P Small-cap 600 index fund. Quick checking, the two have tracked together fairly closely over the life of VIOO and I want to go back far enough to include some of Apple's bad times as well as their good times. NAES...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 14, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Medicare Advantage vs. Supplemental
Replies: 58
Views: 3921

Re: Medicare Advantage vs. Supplemental

When I was looking around several years ago, I ended up with traditional Medicare + supplemental for these reasons. Everything depends on your area and your situation. 1) There was not a huge difference in total cost. Medicare Advantage had considerably lower premiums, but considerably higher out-of...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 14, 2017 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All in with Balanced Index fund
Replies: 41
Views: 5102

Re: All in with Balanced Index fund

...why VBINX isn't more popular? Ask Jack said, VBINX is really all most investors need... There is a very broad range of balanced funds that could quite arguably be "all most investors really need." Here are a few, off the top of my head, and the amount of assets each holds. I note that you have 2...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 14, 2017 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds v. bond funds
Replies: 36
Views: 2033

Re: Bonds v. bond funds

I'm curious as to why the standard advice/approach is to buy bond funds, rather than individual bonds? Aren't bond funds riskier, since there's no guarantee of making your investment back? Since I had a portfolio of about twenty-five individuals TIPS (inflation-protected Treasuries), I think I can ...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: “Going Long Volatility”
Replies: 16
Views: 930

Re: “Going Long Volatility”

Clearly, this ETN doesn't track the VIX at all, and probably has the same terrible problems that leveraged and inverse ETFs have. It's a different and bigger problem than the usual daily rebalancing issues you reference with the leveraged and inverse ETFs: significant contango in short-term VIX fut...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: “Going Long Volatility”
Replies: 16
Views: 930

Re: “Going Long Volatility”

DoctorB wrote:
Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:26 pm
...curious what the Bogleheads perspective would be on this, and what Vanguard offers in this regard, if anything?...
Nothing from Vanguard itself.

I imagine you can buy VXX and other exchanged-related-whatzzisses through Vanguard Brokerage Services, of course.
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: “Going Long Volatility”
Replies: 16
Views: 930

Re: “Going Long Volatility”

I don't even know what it means. I don't claim to be sophisticated, but if I actually don't understand it, it's probably some kind of trendy thing or some meaningless slogan. On doing a Google search, I think it means "go long on the VIX index." For me to try to do this would be a really bad idea , ...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 13, 2017 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Have some savings doing nothing, how to invest?
Replies: 6
Views: 957

Re: Have some savings doing nothing, how to invest?

...We have roughly $100k sitting in a savings account doing nothing. We want to put into this our core four lazy portfolio now... Just a little mini-rant, because people who want to sell you stocks, bonds, and mutual funds like to portray savings accounts as "doing nothing" and "losing value to inf...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 13, 2017 10:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Earplugs that work on low frequency noise?
Replies: 35
Views: 1908

Re: Earplugs that work on low frequency noise?

I've used various kinds of earplugs and my experience is that anything that actually blocks the ear canal fully is very effective. It is well worth giving them a try, and trying lots of kinds for comfort and ability to stay in. Of course disposable earplugs need to be replaced. Rubber and other kind...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 year anniversary of the beginning of the Great Recession
Replies: 45
Views: 4368

Re: 10 year anniversary of the beginning of the Great Recession

...What I would not say is that I've been tested by the Great Recession and now I am ready for anything. Far from it. I subscribe to Taleb's logic that just as in 2007 we thought of "the worst decline" as 25% and were unprepared for a 50% decline, today we think that 50% is the worst that could hap...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab now offering Index funds at lower ER than Vanguard
Replies: 9
Views: 1303

Re: Schwab now offering Index funds at lower ER than Vanguard

Just speaking personally, provided the indexes they are tracking are either identical or close enough, I have always assumed that the index funds from well-known providers (Vanguard, Schwab, Fidelity... as well as the big ETF providers) can be regarded as interchangeable. As to how much the cost mat...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are we taking too much risk with Bonds in our AA?
Replies: 25
Views: 2130

Re: Are we taking too much risk with Bonds in our AA?

Hi everyone, I know that some can consider this as market timing.... However, we do know that the federal reserve started unwinding the recession stimulus. Additionally, we know that they are in the path of rising rates. Those are much more actionable today than in previous years. This stuff is alr...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: equifax security freeze error and no PIN?
Replies: 15
Views: 725

Re: equifax security freeze error and no PIN?

[Rant on] Even though I froze my accounts with the Big Three a couple of years ago, and even though my wife and I waited a few days before taking additional action, we both experienced many errors, crashes, mysterious messages, and so forth. There were more problems with Equifax than the others but ...
by nisiprius
Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy when there's blood in the streets!
Replies: 39
Views: 6390

Re: Buy when there's blood in the streets!

"Buy when there's blood in the streets" is one of a family of sayings, mutually contradictory, that mean nothing. People trot out whichever one matches the situation either to convince you to do something, or to feed their own confirmation bias by finding a rationalization for whatever they already ...
by nisiprius
Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cheapest thing you ever heard of to save money
Replies: 34
Views: 2710

Re: Cheapest thing you ever heard of to save money

My grade school had a pay phone. Rather than spend a nickel to call mom/dad for a ride home (after some after-school or nighttime event), you would dial the number and let it ring once then hang up. Over the course of a school year, this saved about 25 cents. Guess this worked if your parents had c...