Search found 33929 matches

by nisiprius
Mon Dec 25, 2017 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At What Point Do you Just Only Play with "House Money"
Replies: 27
Views: 2254

Re: At What Point Do you Just Only Play with "House Money"

...Well, perhaps I am but there are bounds within the market whereby the risks become clear. Let's take interest rates for example. While you cannot time the difference between 4% - 5% 6% etc. you certainly know that if interest rates are at 0%, the next move is up.... Certainly? In June 2014 in Eu...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 25, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At What Point Do you Just Only Play with "House Money"
Replies: 27
Views: 2254

Re: At What Point Do you Just Only Play with "House Money"

When you notice that you using casino and gambling vocabulary to describe what you are doing ("playing with house money," "take some money off the table," "blue chip," and, of course, the actual words "bet" and "gamble"), it is a warning sign that you might be doing something wrong.
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 25, 2017 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Saga of the travels of a US Postal Service Shipment
Replies: 9
Views: 1505

Re: Saga of the travels of a US Postal Service Shipment

Just to be clear... this was really a pure USPS shipment and not Mail Innovations or one of a few hybrid systems in which delivery services hand off to each other. I've had fairly bad experiences with Mail Innovations...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 25, 2017 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Blockchain Technology Companies and Funds/ETFs/Futures
Replies: 15
Views: 1253

Re: Blockchain Technology Companies and Funds/ETFs/Futures

In any exciting new technology, the future of the technology itself is a distant third to two other considerations: 1) Which are the specific companies that are actually going to make a business success out of that technology? And which will be the Webvans, Yankee Networks, and Osborne Computers? 2)...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 25, 2017 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation can cream bonds VBTLX vs VSCSX
Replies: 42
Views: 3474

Re: Inflation can cream bonds VBTLX vs VSCSX

If you want to hold bonds but you are concerned about inflation, surely the obvious suggestion is a TIPS fund, like Vanguard's VIPSX (VAIPX for Admiral shares). Do you have a reason for rejecting that alternative? The SEC yield for VIPSX is 0.34%. I am not sure I am doing any better than keeping up...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 25, 2017 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation can cream bonds VBTLX vs VSCSX
Replies: 42
Views: 3474

Re: Inflation can cream bonds VBTLX vs VSCSX

If you want to hold bonds but you are concerned about inflation, surely the obvious suggestion is a TIPS fund, like Vanguard's VIPSX (VAIPX for Admiral shares). Do you have a reason for rejecting that alternative? As to what you are missing, I think you are overconfident about your ability to make m...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 25, 2017 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 180
Views: 17102

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Bitcoin is so volatile that when I called up Google News half an hour ago, both of these stories were showing at the same time.

Image
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 25, 2017 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do any of you follow Bob Brinker?
Replies: 64
Views: 6234

Re: Do any of you follow Bob Brinker?

I would avoid all of the broadcast gurus. As nearly as I can tell, they are all the same in several regards: 1) They spout off what can only be called a mixture of fact and personal opinion--admittedly it's hard to distinguish those in investing--but, unfortunately, their broadcast persona is that o...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 24, 2017 8:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Photos dark because of sunlight..what free software to enhance
Replies: 27
Views: 1652

Re: Photos dark because of sunlight..what free software to enhane

So I downloaded The GIMP, from https://www.gimp.org/downloads/ I didn't explore it very much. There are various tutorials and books about it--no less than five from O'Reilly alone. Anyway I quickly found a "Curves" command similar to the one I used in GraphicConverter, and was able to make much the ...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 24, 2017 6:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Photos dark because of sunlight..what free software to enhance
Replies: 27
Views: 1652

Re: Photos dark because of sunlight..what free software to enhane

I can't give you personal results with "free" software. The GIMP is often recommended by free software mavens and it is supposed to be very capable, but I've never used it myself. These days they have versions specifically built for Mac OS X and Windows; you can download them here: https://www.gimp....
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 24, 2017 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Single Stocks EPR and OKE Dividend Stocks
Replies: 7
Views: 473

Re: Single Stocks EPR and OKE Dividend Stocks

What's the deal on the "MLP" nature of this beast? Do investors in OKE need to deal with K-1's?
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 24, 2017 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mechanics of splitting a fund in one day
Replies: 5
Views: 450

Re: Mechanics of splitting a fund in one day

I am thinking of splitting my Balanced Fund into equivalent Total Stock and Total Bond funds. I.e. 60/40. I'd like to do it online this weekend. If I exchanged 60% of BF to TS, then 100% (of what's left) to TB, will Vanguard execute easily or would it gum up the system? Yes, in fact they allow for ...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mechanics of splitting a fund in one day
Replies: 5
Views: 450

Re: Mechanics of splitting a fund in one day

I am thinking of splitting my Balanced Fund into equivalent Total Stock and Total Bond funds. I.e. 60/40. I'd like to do it online this weekend. If I exchanged 60% of BF to TS, then 100% (of what's left) to TB, will Vanguard execute easily or would it gum up the system? Yes, in fact they allow for ...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Target Date Funds better than Vanguard?
Replies: 46
Views: 4586

Re: Any Target Date Funds better than Vanguard?

...Can you explain the math on how I can figure the new asset allocation if I did this?... The key to such things (combining asset allocations etc.) is to convert everything to actual numbers of dollars, then do whatever additions and subtractions you want to make, then convert back to percentages....
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 24, 2017 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Single Stocks EPR and OKE Dividend Stocks
Replies: 7
Views: 473

Re: Single Stocks EPR and OKE Dividend Stocks

...Anyone own either of these 2 high dividend stocks?... Obligatory: Sure. 0.04% of my stock allocation is invested in OKE. (It's the same for anyone who invests in a total market or an S&P 500 index fund, of course). If you think you prefer dividend stocks over the stock market as a whole, why not...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 23, 2017 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are Roth IRAs overrated?
Replies: 77
Views: 7252

Re: Are Roth IRAs overrated?

I pity anybody who inherits a 401(k) or a traditional IRA. Why? :confused The idea behind a traditional IRA or 401(k) is that you don't need to pay income tax on the money you contribute at the time you contribute it. Therefore, the IRS is very concerned about making sure that you do pay it later o...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 23, 2017 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 180
Views: 17102

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

...It's bitcoin . From two credible sources: - Investor Alert: Bitcoin and Other Virtual Currency-Related Investments , from the SEC. - XBT-Cboe Bitcoin Futures , from Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (Cboe)... ...Uh... LadyGeek... as of 00:07:34 UTC, Sunday, December 24, 2017, that SEC article showing th...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 23, 2017 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ROBO and BOTZ
Replies: 4
Views: 455

Re: ROBO and BOTZ

I think this should be mentioned: one of Larry Swedroe's, "Rules of Prudent Investing" #17: Owning individual stocks and sector funds is more akin to speculating, not investing. The market compensates investors for risks that cannot be diversified away, like the risk of investing in stocks versus bo...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 23, 2017 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are Roth IRAs overrated?
Replies: 77
Views: 7252

Re: Are Roth IRAs overrated?

Back in the 1990s, it was common to show illustrations of the benefits of nontaxable compounding by assuming far higher annual returns than people would be willing to assume now. And what with one thing and another, I think the differences people expect to see between their tax rates while working a...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Availability of health care providers - how to factor this in a move?
Replies: 77
Views: 4030

Re: Availability of health care providers - how to factor this in a move?

I suspect that another problem with measuring healthcare on a grand scale is that the statistics are probably dominated by the quality of care available to those with the worst access. This is strictly a guess, but my guess is that "Iowa has good healthcare" probably has more to do with whether chil...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 69
Views: 5891

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

...I'm on your side. Though....noticed on Craigslist autos- see red circle below:... [image of a Craigslist listing for a car, with an unchecked checkbox for "cryptocurrency OK."] Yes, that's mildly interesting, but only as a fashion statement, since Craigslist itself isn't accepting cryptocurrency...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Target Date Funds better than Vanguard?
Replies: 46
Views: 4586

Re: Any Target Date Funds better than Vanguard?

If you are not happy with a cake mix, it is probably better, and not all that difficult, to make your cake from scratch rather than searching for the perfect mix. That is, if you don't like Vanguard's target date funds as they are, and you aren't happy with what you'd get by choosing one with a reti...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 23, 2017 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: S&P 500 Accumulation - What about the big dips?
Replies: 24
Views: 3139

Re: S&P 500 Accumulation - What about the big dips?

It is very important to remember Nassim Nicholas Taleb's dictum--I don't know if he's phrased it as one of his aphorisms--but in regard to the Fukushima disaster he noted It had been built to withstand the worst past historical earthquake, with the builders not imagining much worse--and not thinking...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 23, 2017 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 180
Views: 17102

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

I'd appreciate it if someone learned in the lore of Bitcoin would bring me up to date on whether it is properly spelled with a capital letter or not ( bitcoin or Bitcoin and whether it is an uncountable or mass noun ( $1,000,000 in bitcoin ) or a countable noun with a regular plural ( $1,000,000 in ...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 22, 2017 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Schwab spot: "Buy invididual stocks impulsively in the middle of the night!"
Replies: 12
Views: 1985

Re: New Schwab spot: "Buy invididual stocks impulsively in the middle of the night!"

My favorite line is: "..don't let that sudden gem of genius vanish into thin air!" Aside from encouraging buying stock on a whim, what an awkward turn of phrase -- "sudden gem of genius". Don't they pay people a lot of money to parse this stuff? Dorothy Parker wrote once that... (pause to check)......
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 22, 2017 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average
Replies: 92
Views: 4820

Re: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average

Oicuryy wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 6:17 pm
After thirteen years I still say investment gains and losses should be measured in nepers.
http://discuss.morningstar.com/NewSocia ... 27295.aspx

Ron
It's a good idea. And I expect to see it adopted at about the same time as the Shaw alphabet and decimal time.
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 22, 2017 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 90
Views: 5859

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

...The general thesis is not bad, but I can't agree with nisiprius' sum up statement: "Bitcoin "exchanges" are only slightly more real than the "trading floor of the Bradford Exchange"", which is a gross exaggeration, presumably for rhetorical purposes... Yes, you are right. Let me rephrase slightl...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 22, 2017 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 90
Views: 5859

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

alwayshedge wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 1:23 pm
...My beloved Bitcoin is just entertainment for me that has happened to make me quite a return as well...
I read this to mean that you have actually sold enough of it to realize a profit, measured in dollars. Is that correct?
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 22, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 90
Views: 5859

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

alwayshedge wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 12:17 pm
...the price gravitates higher and higher...
"Gravitates" higher... interesting kind of "gravity..."
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 22, 2017 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 90
Views: 5859

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

The significant thing is probably not the size of the drop (yet). More significant: https://i.imgur.com/wfyjmYo.png CNBC: Coinbase, one of the biggest bitcoin marketplaces, says buying and selling is temporarily disabled amid price rout. Coinbase says at 11:11 a.m. ET that "all buys and sells have b...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Affect of Rising Interest Rates on Vanguard Total Bond Index
Replies: 24
Views: 3397

Re: Affect of Rising Interest Rates on Vanguard Total Bond Index

Here's an interesting one. Suppose the interest rate starts at 2.48% and then rises gradually at 0.50% per year and never stops . What happens? Again, this is total return... a growth chart... assuming that you keep the interest payments (i.e. the fund dividends) and reinvest them. http://i68.tinypi...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Affect of Rising Interest Rates on Vanguard Total Bond Index
Replies: 24
Views: 3397

Re: Affect of Rising Interest Rates on Vanguard Total Bond Index

Answer #2. Gotta get through a quick bunch of disclaimers. This computer simulation does not even try to replicate the actual holdings of Total Bond or anything like that. It is showing the total value--market value plus accumulating reinvested coupon payments--of a rolling bond ladder of Treasury-l...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Affect of Rising Interest Rates on Vanguard Total Bond Index
Replies: 24
Views: 3397

Re: Affect of Rising Interest Rates on Vanguard Total Bond Index

Answer #1: From 10/31/2010 to 2/8/2011 the 10-year Treasury yield rose from 2.48% to 3.72%. This is what the Treasury yield did: http://i64.tinypic.com/15qc64l.png This is what three selected bond funds did. Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund, the one I use and the one you asked about, is in gree...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest equally in stock, bonds, and REITs (US & International)
Replies: 11
Views: 984

Re: Invest equally in stock, bonds, and REITs (US & International)

REITs are a kind of stock. They are an industry sector in the GICS classification. They don't behave like direct ownership in real estate.
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 21, 2017 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feels dumb to hold bonds - Currently 70% Stocks 30% Bonds
Replies: 96
Views: 11292

Re: Feels dumb to hold bonds - Currently 70% Stocks 30% Bonds

I didn't feel dumb holding bonds in 2008-2009. In fact, knowing our bonds were there is probably what made it possible for us to tolerate staying the course in our stocks and not sell them during the crisis. People wish they could be invested in stocks during bull markets and pull out during bear ma...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dave Ramsey Style Vanguard Portfolio?
Replies: 51
Views: 3772

Re: Dave Ramsey Style Vanguard Portfolio?

Why do you want a "Dave Ramsey Style Vanguard Portfolio?" What is your reason for not going with an actual Dave Ramsey portfolio, using specific funds he recommends? Dave Ramsey's investing style just doesn't line up with the Bogleheads investment philosophy . I think it's bad advice, but it's your ...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Availability of health care providers - how to factor this in a move?
Replies: 77
Views: 4030

Re: Availability of health care providers - how to factor this in a move?

Since we haven't planned to move I haven't checked things out thoroughly, but the correlation between cost of living and quality of medical care seems to be surprisingly loose. I was surprised to find out that Iowa, for example, is among the better states for medical care. What are you using to ran...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 20, 2017 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quite a few people I know in real life that normally don't mess with finances have brought up investing in bitcoin
Replies: 74
Views: 6877

Re: Quite a few people I know in real life that normally don't mess with finances have brought up investing in bitcoin

Bitcoin is supposed to be a currency, like US dollars, that can be used to buy things with, right? Maybe I've been living under a rock and don't get out much, but does anybody know any stores that accept bitcoins for payment? I just went to the gas station to put gas in my car - there were no bitco...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 20, 2017 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average
Replies: 92
Views: 4820

Re: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average

...Yes, if you read someone writing in the context of finance you see the term used differently than it is, for example here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_mean. In that article they discuss compound growth and casually slip in the fact that CAGR is the geometric mean GROWTH where GROWTH ...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 20, 2017 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average
Replies: 92
Views: 4820

Re: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average

Or you could type something like this in a cell =GEOMEAN(1+A1:A5)-1 then press ctrl+shift+enter instead of just enter. Ron OK, I learned something today. I didn't know Excel would let you add a constant to a range. Uh, what does ctrl-shift-enter do instead of enter? (I could have sworn that in the ...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 20, 2017 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average
Replies: 92
Views: 4820

Re: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average

...CAGR does not exist if any of the returns are more negative than -100%... The math major in me says, "is that really true?" Suppose your annual percentage returns were: +100%, -150%, -900%, +100%. Then, in successive years, $10,000 would be multiplied successively by 2, -0.5, -8, and 2. The end ...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 20, 2017 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average
Replies: 92
Views: 4820

Re: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average

And I just checked, because I thought, gee, I recently upgraded my copy of Excel, and with all the gazillion built-in financial functions they have in there nowadays, surely they have a function named "CAGR" that would take a cell range, add one to all of them, take the geometric mean, then subtract...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 20, 2017 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average
Replies: 92
Views: 4820

Re: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average

I don't think it's all that great an article. 1) "Geometric mean" is basically but not exactly the same thing as "CAGR" (Compound average growth rate)* so if you see anything reported as CAGR, that's the honest, fair number. The article, incidentally, mixes up the two concepts. 2) Most returns are r...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do We Have to Wait Until Trump Signs the Bill Before We Can Discuss It?
Replies: 44
Views: 2722

Re: Do We Have to Wait Until Trump Signs the Bill Before We Can Discuss It?

I do have a point of order question for our mods though (who are great, btw): When exactly can we call the bill "law" and start to discuss it? Is it as soon as the president signs it, or is there some publication or other process that then has to occur? I'm not a moderator and I can't answer this q...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How invest Bitcoin Gold/Cash using ACH
Replies: 24
Views: 2235

Re: How invest Bitcoin Gold/Cash using ACH

If I were going to take a flutter in Bitcoin, which I am not, in order to avoid the possibility of outright fraud, plain and simple , I would insist on two things: a) a vehicle that invests directly in Bitcoin itself, not in, let's say, a company for carrying out a cryptocurrency undertaking of grea...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 180
Views: 17102

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Sign of a top in litecoin, anyway? Cryptocurrency founder sells all his coins https://s10.postimg.org/q2w2udk0p/Captura_de_pantalla_2017-12-20_a_la_s_11.12.54_a._m.png I think I'm ready to call a bitcoin top in time : sometime in Q1 or Q2 of 2018. And I don't mean just a local maximum, and I don't m...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 20, 2017 8:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hotel $50-500/night Expectations
Replies: 44
Views: 3009

Re: Hotel $50-500/night Expectations

Here's a weird one. At the cheap hotels, I expect to get free WiFi. At the expensive ones, I don't. I hate that hate that hate that. It sucks. It's just wrong . It's the modern-day equivalent of outrageous charges for phone calls on the room phone. Usually I cave in and pay. Sometimes I complain and...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 20, 2017 8:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hotel $50-500/night Expectations
Replies: 44
Views: 3009

Re: Hotel $50-500/night Expectations

I wish that travel guides would routinely mention the age of the hotel building and/or the number of years since the last renovation, since I have the feeling that that would be the single most reliable guide to the "general" experience. Not even the... well, let's say the $150/night hotels... seem ...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 20, 2017 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I read on a different forum that for Vanguard if you have over 10k in an account you can make them admiral shares
Replies: 9
Views: 1682

Re: I read on a different forum that for Vanguard if you have over 10k in an account you can make them admiral shares

randydimera, just to be clear: because Bogleheads tend to be focussed, correctly, on the importance of mutual fund costs, there is a tendency to get overly excited about very small savings. As noted, VASGX, the Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth Fund is not available as Admiral shares, but even if it were...