Search found 33472 matches

by nisiprius
Fri Nov 03, 2017 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I invest my emergency fund?
Replies: 29
Views: 3104

Re: Should I invest my emergency fund?

First: "savings" is money you have decided not to spend. "Investments" are what you choose to do with your savings. A bank account can be, and often is, an investment. Second: emergency funds are hard to discuss, and I've never seen any good analysis of them, because it is hard to say what an "emerg...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 03, 2017 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History of World Stock Market Bubbles, 1900-2014
Replies: 38
Views: 3378

Re: History of World Stock Market Bubbles, 1900-2014

It's interesting in terms of accurately calibrating one's feelings about stock market rises. It is particularly interesting that "I find the probability of a crash conditional on a boom is only slightly higher than the unconditional probability," i.e. you cannot improve much on staying the course by...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 03, 2017 6:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey sounded like a Boglehead today (Nov 2 2017)
Replies: 33
Views: 5511

Re: Dave Ramsey sounded like a Boglehead today (Nov 2 2017)

(Shrug) A very common way to counter indexing is to give up on trying to convince people not to do it at all, and focus on convincing them only to do it with part of their money and invest the rest your way. Until you can show me that Ramsey is recommending balanced portfolios with nonzero bond allo...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 03, 2017 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regret of selling winning stocks early
Replies: 64
Views: 8549

Re: Regret of selling winning stocks early

Feel good if your stock picks made money. Wishing that you could sell at exactly the right time instead of at a good time is greed. "Bulls make money and bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered."
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 02, 2017 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How consistent will VNQ dividend be?
Replies: 65
Views: 3569

Re: How consistent will VNQ dividend be?

Thanks! But do beware, I'm not convinced that the data from Yahoo! Finance is impeccable. I did do a quick reality check and it did seem to match up with what Vanguard's website shows under the "distributions" tab for the last few years. https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundIntExt=INT...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How consistent will VNQ dividend be?
Replies: 65
Views: 3569

Re: How consistent will VNQ dividend be?

The data from Yahoo! tend to be noisy, and I think often contains errors or omissions, and year-end capital gains distributions complicate the picture--the year-end data from Yahoo! includes both dividend and capital gains distributions. But here it is. Sorry about the formatting, I have a new versi...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How consistent will VNQ dividend be?
Replies: 65
Views: 3569

Re: How consistent will VNQ dividend be?

...OBVIOUSLY I can sell them to provide income...but that's not the point. VNQ (or something like it) seems to be able to provide a reliable income stream without sacrificing account value... No, "without sacrificing account value" is an illusion. Whatever is paid out in dividends, for whatever rea...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What's Your Uncertainty/Humility Score?"
Replies: 17
Views: 2462

Re: "What's Your Uncertainty/Humility Score?"

I was hoping she'd actually worked out a way to assess a score! She's right. Of all the behavioral errors in investing, overconfidence is one of the most serious and the most common. A few years ago one David Freedman published a book entitled Wrong: Why Experts Keep Failing Us — and How to Know Whe...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 02, 2017 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Me Break My Love Affair With Fidelity Low Priced Stock
Replies: 76
Views: 5997

Re: Help Me Break My Love Affair With Fidelity Low Priced Stock

This is what I personally would do. I do not say it is rational, I say it is what I would do... and have done, though not with FLSPX. The problem with having a fund that has outperformed is that you hate to miss out on the possibility of future outperformance. I would first decide, "if I didn't hold...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 02, 2017 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Enduring Case for High-Yield Bonds?
Replies: 13
Views: 2000

Re: The Enduring Case for High-Yield Bonds?

Remember, my skeptical claim is that "high-yield" bonds must be shown to be meaningfully different from a mixture of stocks and investment-grade bonds. Notice that if we read through the TIAA paper, it seems to me that almost all the claims they make for "high-yield" bonds are basically the same cla...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 02, 2017 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Enduring Case for High-Yield Bonds?
Replies: 13
Views: 2000

Re: The Enduring Case for High-Yield Bonds?

My feeling has been that so-called "high yield" bonds are an in-between asset class and the question is whether it does anything significantly different from an equivalent-risk mixture of high quality bonds and stocks. Let's do a quick reality check. Portfolio 1 will be 60% Total Stock, VTSMX; 40% T...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ETF vs Investor Shares (Bonus Q: Fund Allocation)
Replies: 17
Views: 892

Re: ETF vs Investor Shares (Bonus Q: Fund Allocation)

I really dislike ETFs. If I were at a brokerage where a) I could make all of the Vanguard ETF transactions I wanted or needed to make with no fees, and b) Vanguard mutual funds incurred a transaction fee in the $35-$75 range, then I would use ETFs. If I could buy both Vanguard ETFs and Vanguard inve...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 02, 2017 5:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?
Replies: 66
Views: 8590

Why WAS QSPIX steadily declining (currently, it's rising)

https://s1.postimg.org/1d2vvk55en/Captura_de_pantalla_2017-11-02_a_la_s_6.37.17_AM.png Somebody really ought to edit the thread title. I believe I will report the thread to the moderators and ask them to do it. As it stands, it's inaccurate information. The original poster, taojaxx, hasn't posted s...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 02, 2017 5:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?
Replies: 66
Views: 8590

Re: Why is QSPIX steadily declining?

...Maybe this should be another thread. If somebody wants to create it, please do. Otherwise, maybe I will tomorrow or something... By all means do it. Or, I'd be interested in someone trying to do some kind of grand overview of AQR's mutual fund family, in general. I was disappointed that Larry Sw...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 01, 2017 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: When Popularity Kills
Replies: 14
Views: 1835

Re: Larry Swedroe: When Popularity Kills

A version of the paper is available at no cost at SSRN: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2484322]Popularity versus Profitability: Evidence from Bollinger Bands The paper notes that the disappearance or diminution of profitability isn't necessarily attributable to popularity; it co...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 01, 2017 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund VWIAX VS "Global" Wellesley Income Fund VGYAX? Should I move? Would you?
Replies: 35
Views: 2620

Re: Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund VWIAX VS "Global" Wellesley Income Fund VGYAX? Should I move? Would you?

Sandtrap wrote:
Wed Nov 01, 2017 12:50 pm
Thanks, "nisiprius". Amazing how you bring instant clarity to things. :shock:
One day I'll figure out how you put the charts into the post. . . . . .
mahalo,
j :D
Posting images in the Bogleheads forum
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 01, 2017 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the One investment to rule them all?
Replies: 25
Views: 3289

Re: the One investment to rule them all?

so this is like an annuity? No, no, NO. Also no. Broadly speaking: an income annuity is a legal contract with an insurance company to provide specific amounts of money every month until you die... possibly level, possibly increasing by 3% every year, or possibly indexed to inflation. With regard to...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 01, 2017 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Ulcer Index
Replies: 12
Views: 1153

Re: The Ulcer Index

"Ulcers?" Seriously?

I think it's been several decades since people believed that ulcers are caused by the anxiety of having to make difficult executive decisions. Nowadays they seem to think it's Helicobacter pylori.
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 01, 2017 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Ulcer Index
Replies: 12
Views: 1153

Re: The Ulcer Index

livesoft wrote:
Wed Nov 01, 2017 12:26 pm
I was just having a discussion on this subject earlier today. I haven't really used the web site. Can one put in a ticker symbol and get an Ulcer Index? For example, VSMGX and VWENX?
I've just spent five minutes clicking around the site and looking for that, but couldn't find anything like that.
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 01, 2017 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund VWIAX VS "Global" Wellesley Income Fund VGYAX? Should I move? Would you?
Replies: 35
Views: 2620

Re: Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund VWIAX VS "Global" Wellesley Income Fund VGYAX? Should I move? Would you?

Why be in a rush to do anything? One of my prime investing strategies is to "embrace inertia." There's no reason to expect this fund to be hugely different just because of having international components. I don't believe it matters much, but as a matter of principle I deliberately don't rush to be t...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 01, 2017 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard "Admiral Shares" Question
Replies: 3
Views: 625

Re: Vanguard "Admiral Shares" Question

1) Vanguard does it automatically, but it can take a long time (many weeks, or more) for it to happen. 2) You can do it yourself online instead of waiting. Like EngCapt1, I forget exactly how but it is fairly obvious if you look for it. It's better to do it than to waste time and anxiety waiting for...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 01, 2017 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the One investment to rule them all?
Replies: 25
Views: 3289

Re: the One investment to rule them all?

You say you are going to live off it the rest of your life, so apparently you want to begin drawing $50,000 a year from it right now. That makes it difficult. I'm not at all sure I'd be happy with any 100%-stocks purchase. Since this is just spitballing, one obvious suggestion would be to go to the ...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 01, 2017 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Easy Way to Change Guardians in Will
Replies: 8
Views: 531

Re: Easy Way to Change Guardians in Will

Just go to a lawyer. We had to do this once, it didn't take long and it didn't cost much.
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Market Portfolio as a single ETF?
Replies: 28
Views: 1726

Re: Global Market Portfolio as a single ETF?

As long as we are talking theory: there is a theory that says that the market portfolio (the sum total of assets held within a market) is mean-variance optimum. However, I think this theory assumes that it really is a single market, in which investors have total freedom to exchange any combination o...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: new 401(k) limits announced
Replies: 88
Views: 12894

Re: new 401(k) limits announced

...At your place of work does this 'automatically stop' at the 18k employee contribution point? (so one can't overcontribute)... At the one, two, three, four employers where I had 401(k)'s I was told that it would. But, hey, mistakes can happen, why push it? One caution, if you think you might be a...
by nisiprius
Tue Oct 31, 2017 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett "Key Indicator" near dangerous all-time high...
Replies: 73
Views: 8922

Re: Buffet "Key Indicator" near dangerous all-time high...

To take just one, Buffett never said "volatility is not risk." Warren Buffett's 2014 Letter to shareholders, pg.18 paragraph 7: "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk." Yes. That is quite a different statement. And the context is important, too: That lesson has not customarily been taught in ...
by nisiprius
Tue Oct 31, 2017 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett "Key Indicator" near dangerous all-time high...
Replies: 73
Views: 8922

Re: Buffet "Key Indicator" near dangerous all-time high...

Saying that 90/10 S&P500/Treasuries will do fine is not the same as saying NOT to invest in U.S. or small caps (I agree it will do fine; yet I invest in both of those). This is another point that is often missed about Buffettisms. The person above said it was never made clear "...whether the truste...
by nisiprius
Tue Oct 31, 2017 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett "Key Indicator" near dangerous all-time high...
Replies: 73
Views: 8922

Re: Buffet "Key Indicator" near dangerous all-time high...

TheNightsToCome wrote:
Tue Oct 31, 2017 5:26 pm
nisiprius wrote:
Tue Oct 31, 2017 5:06 pm
IMPORTANT: this is someone named Shawn Langlois talking, not Warren Buffett...I would feel a lot happier if he cited his source so that we could read Buffett's exact words... in context.
Here are Buffett's words...
Thanks!
by nisiprius
Tue Oct 31, 2017 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Market Portfolio as a single ETF?
Replies: 28
Views: 1726

Re: Global Market Portfolio as a single ETF?

After 2-1/2 years, Morningstar is showing GAA as only having $48.52 mil in assets under management. That doesn't seem like very much. I don't know enough about ETFs to know if that's cause for concern.
by nisiprius
Tue Oct 31, 2017 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Market Portfolio as a single ETF?
Replies: 28
Views: 1726

Re: Global Market Portfolio as a single ETF?

Out of curiosity, I compared the above discussed fund with the 60/40 LifeStrategy fund. Returns since 01/01/2015 (rough start date of GAA): GAA: $1,747 VSMGX: $1,955 Per Morningstar, VSMGX is 16 basis points cheaper. Beat me to it. One issue is that according to Morningstar, GAA is 48.51% stocks an...
by nisiprius
Tue Oct 31, 2017 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lets take about the adjustment
Replies: 13
Views: 1584

Re: Lets take about the adjustment

...Granted no one can predict,... Stop right there. ...but it seems like afterward all the signs were there and it was fairly obvious. The key word there is "seems." "20/20 hindsight" is deadly. I certainly succumb to it if I let down my guard. Whether its a bubble somewhere or something else, what...
by nisiprius
Tue Oct 31, 2017 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett "Key Indicator" near dangerous all-time high...
Replies: 73
Views: 8922

Re: Buffet "Key Indicator" near dangerous all-time high...

IMPORTANT: this is someone named Shawn Langlois talking, not Warren Buffett . It may well be correct that Warren Buffett once described his favorite market indicator as "the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment" and that when the metric exceeds certain levels, like it d...
by nisiprius
Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Market Portfolio as a single ETF?
Replies: 28
Views: 1726

Re: Global Market Portfolio as a single ETF?

GAA, 27 stocks, VT, 7,974 stocks, like comparing the Dow 40 to the S&P 500. Not fair. (Even I'm not a fan of Mebane Faber, and I think people planning to buy this ETF should take a good hard look at his earlier ETF, Global Tactical Asset Allocation GTAA). GAA doesn't hold 27 stocks , it holds 27 ET...
by nisiprius
Tue Oct 31, 2017 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should we still be investing in high grade gov bonds considering the amount of public debt?
Replies: 10
Views: 898

Re: Should we still be investing in high grade gov bonds considering the amount of public debt?

The whole global economy is, currently, tightly linked to U.S. treasury securities and the idea that they're safe. They may not be, but there isn't really any easy practical way for an ordinary person to opt out from the assumption that they are. A rational approach is to look at what the bond ratin...
by nisiprius
Mon Oct 30, 2017 6:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Barclays Dream Acc. no longer available
Replies: 1
Views: 292

Re: Barclays Dream Acc. no longer available

I don't think it's that rational. I think banks provide temporary teaser deals to get people to open accounts, relying on the fact that they can cut or eliminate them a couple of years later and people will keep the account as long as they are comparable, or not much worse than, the competition.
by nisiprius
Mon Oct 30, 2017 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-fund vs. 3-fund
Replies: 26
Views: 2517

Re: 2-fund vs. 3-fund

The question you ask is easily answered for the shorter time periods with PortfolioVisualizer. Portfolio 1 (two funds, U.S. only) is charted in blue, Portfolio 2 (three funds, includes international) is charted in red. For ten years, Sep 2007 - Sep 2017, the investor with the 2-fund (U.S.-only) port...
by nisiprius
Mon Oct 30, 2017 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the point of an ETF version of a total stock index fund?
Replies: 15
Views: 1069

Re: What is the point of an ETF version of a total stock index fund?

What is the point of any ETF? Whatever is the point of ETFs, that is the point of an ETF version of a total stock index fund. After all, the very first ETF ever introduced was SPY, which is an S&P 500 ETF and thus a very broad ETF covering most of the total market. And it was introduced even though ...
by nisiprius
Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is International Stock Index Safer?
Replies: 14
Views: 967

Re: Is International Stock Index Safer?

Nobody knows nuttin'. Despite all the smart-sounding talk about valuations and such, nobody knows what's going to happen or what will outperform, and fretting and fussing and reviewing and revising every six months probably won't help and there's good evidence that it hurts. If U.S. stocks are highl...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 28, 2017 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'A History of the United States in 5 Crashes' book
Replies: 11
Views: 1862

Re: 'A History of the United States in 5 Crashes' book

I haven't read it, I'll keep it in mind as something to possibly borrow from the library. But on checking the description in Amazon, I find the choice of the "five crashes" disappointing: The Panic of 1907: When the Knickerbocker Trust Company failed, after a brazen attempt to manipulate the stock m...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 28, 2017 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Investors really underperform their investments
Replies: 45
Views: 3786

Re: Do Investors really underperform their investments

I thought that all of the investors collectively owned all of the securities at all times. If that's the case, I don't understand how the investors collectively can do better or worse than the relevant markets, at least before taxes and management and transaction costs. Investment companies (includ...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: dishwasher recommendations
Replies: 54
Views: 2906

Re: dishwasher recommendations

1) We bought a GE Profile dishwasher about eight or ten years ago and it was really awful. Combine that with bad experiences on two GE microwaves that each lasted only a couple of years before literally going "bang!" and emitting a puff of smoke, and we've pretty well had it with GE. The front panel...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 28, 2017 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing is profitable?
Replies: 6
Views: 664

Re: Rebalancing is profitable?

This is a very frequently debated point. I am going to state what I personally believe without trying to defend it or support it. 1) Rebalancing is not a magic market-timing-like formula that works. Rebalancing does not create extra return without extra risk. Rebalancing does not work by "forcing yo...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the best AA for me?
Replies: 24
Views: 1575

Re: What is the best AA for me?

This is absolutely a personal decision, and any idea that there is an objectively best or mathematically correct asset allocation is nonsense. It depends on your risk tolerance. As wealth increases and you become increasingly sure that you have "enough," some people have "increasing relative risk av...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 27, 2017 5:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Limit on carrying physical cash during domestic US flights
Replies: 35
Views: 3328

Re: Limit on carrying physical cash during domestic US flights

I'm serious and I'd be curious to hear the answer if you decide to go ahead with it. If you actually plan to bring large amounts of cash through airport security, and it's 100% legitimate, and you are not relying on the checkpoint failing to notice it, or noticing it and not doing anything about it....
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Limit on carrying physical cash during domestic US flights
Replies: 35
Views: 3328

Re: Limit on carrying physical cash during domestic US flights

400 . . . . . $100 dollar bills takes up a lot of space. I'd have said it was very manageable. A bundle of a hundred bills is about 6" by 2.5" by 0.5" thick, and that's $10,000. $40,000 would be a two-inch-thick stack, and would weigh 400 grams = less than a pound. If you arranged two stacks of two...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 91, 01, 09. Then 19? [Year for next market crash]
Replies: 27
Views: 2567

Re: 91, 01, 09. Then 19?

bo105954027, let me continue with another approach, but I won't do the the calculations, at least not until I understand what you are saying. Even if the idea "worked" it would still be suspect because of having been generated in hindsight. However, if you are serious about believing that the market...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 91, 01, 09. Then 19? [Year for next market crash]
Replies: 27
Views: 2567

Re: 91, 01, 09. Then 19?

bo105954027, most of us have gone through our phase when we thought that there might be clear "cycles" that we could use to improve our investments, and have decided it is an illusion. The problem is that we want to see patterns after the fact. In your case, my suspicion is that the "pattern" is pro...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 27, 2017 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar responds to Wall Street Journal article
Replies: 23
Views: 3551

Re: Morningstar responds to Wall Street Journal article

The star ratings do take risk into account, and try to compare apples with apples. That's good. They don't explicitly take expenses into account, but assuming that high expenses are as predictive as Morningstar has said, and as Bogleheads believe, expenses would also affect performance and thus be i...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 26, 2017 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AIEQ AI Powered Equity ETF
Replies: 9
Views: 661

Re: AIEQ AI Powered Equity ETF

I think that whenever someone brags about the brand of technology used somewhere inside their product, it's a red flag. Imagine someone saying "this is the first toothbrush with a genuine Intel microprocessor inside?" It is an appeal to people who like buzzwords and technology. Like the microprocess...