Search found 1397 matches

by BigJohn
Sun Jun 11, 2017 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should equals take SS at FRA or Early to preserve portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 3131

Re: Should equals take SS at FRA or Early to preserve portfolio?

and hopefully end up with only a small portion remaining in tax deferred. Why are you hoping and not calculating? While there are too many variables to be exact, run a few scenarios with your expected retirement expenses coming from various sources between now and age 70. Based on prior posts my se...
by BigJohn
Fri Jun 02, 2017 10:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Drowning in debt
Replies: 52
Views: 5588

Re: Drowning in debt

Chan_va wrote:Sell the asset and pay off the HELOC. You are arbitraging a potential gain of 5% vs. a certain loss of 4%. Sure you get a tax deduction now on the 4%, but you will also pay taxes on the other end on the gain.
This is what I would do in your shoes.
by BigJohn
Wed May 31, 2017 5:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is anyone here allocated 30/70 a la Rick Ferri's "new center of gravity?"
Replies: 35
Views: 5936

Re: Is anyone here allocated 30/70 a la Rick Ferri's "new center of gravity?"

Age 60/59, retired two years with a target allocation of 35/65 and planning on deferring SS until age 70. I got to this target using Bill Bernstein's LMP approach to help manage sequence of return risk. It also helps that I have an SWR below 3% and therefore have no pressing need to take more risk. ...
by BigJohn
Sun May 28, 2017 7:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Intermediate vs Short Term TIPS Fund
Replies: 45
Views: 4815

Re: Intermediate vs Short Term TIPS Fund

OK Bob, I'll quite asking you then, thanks
by BigJohn
Sat May 27, 2017 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Intermediate vs Short Term TIPS Fund
Replies: 45
Views: 4815

Re: Intermediate vs Short Term TIPS Fund

bobcat, thanks again for all your help/advice but I think we have different definition of what "handle the risk" means. I did not mean to imply that my approach was immune to the risk but I'm confident that I can survive without undue hardship. With a normal SWR below 3% and the possibility to go cl...
by BigJohn
Sat May 27, 2017 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Intermediate vs Short Term TIPS Fund
Replies: 45
Views: 4815

Re: Intermediate vs Short Term TIPS Fund

BobK, thanks for the answer and example. I understand the concept of interest rate risk and the fact that it's the same for TIPS and nominal bond. I've put together a 3 fund portfolio that I'm comfortable with handling interest rate risks using an IT nominal bond fund. I understand there are pros/co...
by BigJohn
Sat May 27, 2017 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Intermediate vs Short Term TIPS Fund
Replies: 45
Views: 4815

Re: Intermediate vs Short Term TIPS Fund

For safe income over retirement there is little difference between holding an intermediate nominal bond fund and an intermediate TIPS fund. Neither provides a retiree with safe income. You are only kidding yourself, if you think otherwise. Well, I'm really not sure I understand this statement and i...
by BigJohn
Sat May 27, 2017 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Avoiding Taxes with RMD
Replies: 59
Views: 7789

Re: Avoiding Taxes with RMD

Ged wrote:That is either 90% of the previous year's taxes owed or 100% of the current year's.
Be sure to read special rules for higher AGI and that can trigger a 110% requirement.
by BigJohn
Sat May 27, 2017 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Intermediate vs Short Term TIPS Fund
Replies: 45
Views: 4815

Re: Intermediate vs Short Term TIPS Fund

I would add that in none of these duration matching strategies, and that includes TIPS bond ladders, are we going to achieve perfect immunization against changes in interest rates. We are aiming for a relative safe retirement income stream, not perfect protection against interest rate movements It ...
by BigJohn
Fri May 26, 2017 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Intermediate vs Short Term TIPS Fund
Replies: 45
Views: 4815

Re: Intermediate vs Short Term TIPS Fund

TIPS are not needed. Stay with the Three Fund Portfolio. abuss, you started one of the longest discussions ever on TIPS ( https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2540230 ). Interested in why you say TIPS are not needed. Is there more to it than just your frustration at no/low dividend paym...
by BigJohn
Fri May 26, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Intermediate vs Short Term TIPS Fund
Replies: 45
Views: 4815

Re: Intermediate vs Short Term TIPS Fund

Most of these bonds are a combination of ST & LT TIPS bond funds whose combined duration is matched dynamically thru time with the duration of the investor's remaining life span. This is one of the many ways that the DFA TDFs are consistent with the principles of life-cycle economics. bobcat, while...
by BigJohn
Thu May 25, 2017 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BlackRock, Vanguard Mull Pressuring Exxon to Disclose Climate Risks
Replies: 33
Views: 2315

Re: BlackRock, Vanguard Mull Pressuring Exxon to Disclose Climate Risks

Dave, in this case I completely agree with your assessment of where the line is. Others, here and at VG/BR, obviously don't and think this is a good idea. So it's grey not because of what you or I think but because 100 people will have 101 opinions on where the line should be drawn.
by BigJohn
Thu May 25, 2017 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BlackRock, Vanguard Mull Pressuring Exxon to Disclose Climate Risks
Replies: 33
Views: 2315

Re: BlackRock, Vanguard Mull Pressuring Exxon to Disclose Climate Risks

This is an edit. I responded to the OP but after seeing more I realize my original response was due to misunderstanding. I am for robust oversight of corporations to protect shareholder interests regarding their investments. It seems reasonable that if Exxon has assessed risk to specific pending re...
by BigJohn
Thu May 25, 2017 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BlackRock, Vanguard Mull Pressuring Exxon to Disclose Climate Risks
Replies: 33
Views: 2315

Re: BlackRock, Vanguard Mull Pressuring Exxon to Disclose Climate Risks

While you might or might not think this is particular issue is valid, the potential precedent worries me. Sure, if you agree with doing this it sounds great but how will you feel next time when you disagree with what they support? There are all sorts of grey areas between compliance (or may be more ...
by BigJohn
Thu May 25, 2017 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Avoiding Taxes with RMD
Replies: 59
Views: 7789

Re: Avoiding Taxes with RMD

The Wizard wrote:Then "levelize" your AGI by doing Roth conversions each year. Goal for some of us is to have AGI increase maybe 3% or 5% each year prior to age 70 with not "too" big a jump at 70.5 when SS and RMDs start.
FWIW, this is my plan for the next 10 years before RMDs and SS both kick-in.
by BigJohn
Wed May 24, 2017 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Intermediate vs Short Term TIPS Fund
Replies: 45
Views: 4815

Re: Intermediate vs Short Term TIPS Fund

I just wanted to be sure you recognize that the same goal could be accomplished by adding Vanguard's ST TIPS fund to your LTPZ holdings. Angst, is there any benefit to this vs the VG IT TIPS fund if average duration is about the same? I like simplicity and am comfortable with the risk-return trade-...
by BigJohn
Wed May 24, 2017 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case against long-term TIPS
Replies: 47
Views: 8089

Re: Case against long-term TIPS

Choosing which to buy, like everything else, depends on the individual's circumstances and goals. garlandwhizzer, I recent read this VG paper as I'm trying to decide what, if any, TIPS fund to use. I was intrigued by this comment in their summary Our results imply that a short-term TIPS portfolio m...
by BigJohn
Wed May 24, 2017 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Intermediate vs Short Term TIPS Fund
Replies: 45
Views: 4815

Re: Intermediate vs Short Term TIPS Fund

....how much of those "below 3%" annual withdrawals have been comprised of just dividends and interest payments? Interesting point Angst, never thought about that impact. In my case, more than half of my assets are in tIRAs and I'm 10 years from RMDs so until then half or less of my SWR is coming f...
by BigJohn
Mon May 22, 2017 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Intermediate vs Short Term TIPS Fund
Replies: 45
Views: 4815

Re: Intermediate vs Short Term TIPS Fund

Vanguard issued a paper.... Thanks dbr, I went looking for and found the paper. Here is their summary Our results imply that a short-term TIPS portfolio may be a more appropriate inflation-sensitive investment than the broad TIPS market for risk-averse investors who want their total portfolio to mo...
by BigJohn
Mon May 22, 2017 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Intermediate vs Short Term TIPS Fund
Replies: 45
Views: 4815

Re: Intermediate vs Short Term TIPS Fund

grok, thanks for taking the time to add the details. I understand your points and that may well be a very appropriate approach for some. I decided some time back that building an individual TIPS ladder isn't something I was willing to consider as one of the objectives for my retirement portfolio is ...
by BigJohn
Sat May 20, 2017 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Missing my Microsoft Money - any equivalents?
Replies: 34
Views: 5310

Re: Missing my Microsoft Money - any equivalents?

I would suggest downloading the free Microsoft Money Sunset edition. I bought a new computer a few months back and was anxious about what would happen to my old MS Money program and files. I downloaded the Sunset edition and found it was a very easy transition. It loaded without issue and opened my...
by BigJohn
Sat May 20, 2017 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Intermediate vs Short Term TIPS Fund
Replies: 45
Views: 4815

Re: Intermediate vs Short Term TIPS Fund

Intermediate-term TIPS are protected against inflation as much as short-term TIPS, but the trade-off is the same as for any other bonds Thanks PJW. One of my key questions was whether the above statement was true. I thought it was but seeing VG choose IT nominal bonds but then ST TIPS for their tar...
by BigJohn
Sat May 20, 2017 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Intermediate vs Short Term TIPS Fund
Replies: 45
Views: 4815

Re: Intermediate vs Short Term TIPS Fund

dbr/Kyle, thanks for the comments Long term is my vote-LTPZ grok, although a higher yield is certainly nice, I've always stayed away from long bonds because their interest rate sensitivity was just too great. Now that I've retired, I'm looking at my bonds as the liability matching part of my portfol...
by BigJohn
Sat May 20, 2017 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LMP-1: P&I article on corporate & public pension plans
Replies: 60
Views: 5613

Re: LMP-1: P&I article on corporate & public pension plans

grok87 wrote:No tips?
Working on it. See this post, would value any input you have viewtopic.php?p=3375400

Edit: I see you already did. I've got a follow-up question in discussion above.
by BigJohn
Fri May 19, 2017 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Intermediate vs Short Term TIPS Fund
Replies: 45
Views: 4815

Intermediate vs Short Term TIPS Fund

I'm wrestling with whether I need to add TIPS to my 3 fund portfolio to improve it's ability to weather a bout of high inflation. I'm 60 and retired two years ago. I set my AA at 35/65 based on an LMP approach. Investments are primarily in TSM/TISM and VG Intermediate Term Bond Index (VBILX) but in ...
by BigJohn
Fri May 19, 2017 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LMP-1: P&I article on corporate & public pension plans
Replies: 60
Views: 5613

Re: LMP-1: P&I article on corporate & public pension plans

I am even sure what is meant by a liability matched portfolio, other than something that hasn't been well thought out in a systematic way. Is it a misnamed investment strategy that is more or less synonymous with the more broadly excepted term LDI? Or is it some sort of Rube Goldberg contraption in...
by BigJohn
Fri May 19, 2017 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If You Can't
Replies: 25
Views: 1931

Re: If You Can't

So 100% stocks would be easier for me to stick with. OK, at your age there are worse decision than being 100% stock but that's not really an allocation you can "stick with" forever. At some point in 10 - 15 years and certainly in the 10 year before retirement, you'll want to add some bonds. If you ...
by BigJohn
Fri May 19, 2017 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If You Can't
Replies: 25
Views: 1931

Re: If You Can't

The issue for me would be sitting down on my laptop and saying ok time to rebalance. Oops looks like the market has been down. Time to rebalance to 33% stocks. Wait, can't I make more with 40% stocks? 50%? 90%? etc. I just know that temptation will be there when that option is there. If its not, it...
by BigJohn
Fri May 19, 2017 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If You Can't
Replies: 25
Views: 1931

Re: If You Can't

You really can't compare A and B because A is not going to be 100% stock. As a result, over a long period of time, B will usually win but.... the ride is going to be very bumpy (higher volatility) without some bonds for stability. Not sure why you feel that 67/33/0 will be easier to stick with than ...
by BigJohn
Fri May 19, 2017 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate
Replies: 182
Views: 28489

Re: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate

This being said, VPW is a bit extreme in the withdrawal variability it allows, and I don't think most people would go for it without some adjustment (e.g. smoothing), which would then restore *some* risk associated with the sequence of return, but nowhere near as severe as with a constant withdrawa...
by BigJohn
Thu May 18, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate
Replies: 182
Views: 28489

Re: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate

There is no risk free decision so all of this a balancing act trying to manage multiple risks that drive your portfolio in opposing directions. Agree with comments above that 30/70 certainly increases the risk posed by inflation if you hold nominal bonds. However, this risk can be mitigated fairly e...
by BigJohn
Thu May 18, 2017 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tilting/Factors: My Conclusions (Challenges welcome)
Replies: 48
Views: 3412

Re: Tilting/Factors: My Conclusions (Challenges welcome)

I hope that the indexers and tilters can agree to disagree and share a beer after a lively discussion. I've come to believe that tilting is just another risk/benefit decision not too different than deciding on your asset allocation. I'm satisfied with my decision to accept a market average return f...
by BigJohn
Wed May 17, 2017 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tilting/Factors: My Conclusions (Challenges welcome)
Replies: 48
Views: 3412

Re: Tilting/Factors: My Conclusions (Challenges welcome)

The second strategy I have endorsed is a small/value tilting strategy. My best guess is that over an investing lifetime, this might net you another 0.50% to 1.00% increase in your annual returns, though I lean towards the 0.50%. nedsaid, I think you need to context the expected return based on how ...
by BigJohn
Wed May 17, 2017 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate
Replies: 182
Views: 28489

Re: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate

I retired two years ago and am currently age 60. Deferred for two years and then chose a lump sum in lieu of a pension a few months ago. As a result, 100% of current income comes from interest/dividends/liquidation. Planning to wait until age 70 to start SS, doing Roth conversions until that time. C...
by BigJohn
Mon May 15, 2017 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate
Replies: 182
Views: 28489

Re: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate

willthrill81 wrote:They have a great example of how impactful sequence of returns risk was for retirees in 1973, 1974, and 1975 on the home page.
I haven't use FireCalc in a while so had not seen the graphic, a really powerful illustration. Thanks for pointing it out.
by BigJohn
Sun May 14, 2017 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Most market anomalies academics have identified don’t exist
Replies: 53
Views: 6373

Re: WSJ: Most market anomalies academics have identified don’t exist

grok, right now I'm relying on stocks to counter inflation so you're right, stagflation could be an issue. It's why I'm considering splitting my bonds allocation and adding TIPS. RandomWalker, I'm not reading the book for financial advice but more to understand how our brain handles (or does not han...
by BigJohn
Sat May 13, 2017 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Most market anomalies academics have identified don’t exist
Replies: 53
Views: 6373

Re: WSJ: Most market anomalies academics have identified don’t exist

Isn't Taleb a fan of sort of a barbell approach: combination of riskless and most risky? A ton of T-bills and a dose of the riskiest asset classes? I haven't read any specific investment recommendations (yet?). My comment was just based on the principle that it's difficult to predict big events bec...
by BigJohn
Sat May 13, 2017 6:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who among us purchased flood insurance in a low risk flood zone and filed a claim?
Replies: 4
Views: 932

Re: Who among us purchased flood insurance in a low risk flood zone and filed a claim?

Last year we had what FEMA has called a 1000 year flood event. 30,000+ homes in the area were flooded. Lots of people in FEMA low risks areas had 1 - 3 feet of water. Some had flood insurance because it was cheap and boy are they glad they did. Many did not and are either having to eat the costs out...
by BigJohn
Sat May 13, 2017 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Most market anomalies academics have identified don’t exist
Replies: 53
Views: 6373

Re: WSJ: Most market anomalies academics have identified don’t exist

The reality is that the markets have a way of doing the very thing that you never expected. I'm in the middle of reading Taleb's "The Black Swan" and so far this is the essence of what I've taken away regarding it's application to investing. On one hand it worries me as I agree with comments above ...
by BigJohn
Thu May 11, 2017 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Construction for Couple about to retire
Replies: 17
Views: 2245

Re: Portfolio Construction for Couple about to retire

livesoft, I understand and can't argue with the logic. In my particular circumstance with taxable much smaller that t-IRA, I value stability in taxable to ensure I have the $$ to pay taxes on Roth conversions. I expect taxable to be largely depleted by the time I hit SS/RMDs so tax lost harvesting w...
by BigJohn
Thu May 11, 2017 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Construction for Couple about to retire
Replies: 17
Views: 2245

Re: Portfolio Construction for Couple about to retire

I retired about two years ago, my comments below. My first thought was to fill taxable and tax-advantaged in the manner you described but my concern was exposing the entire taxable portion to stock market risk. I completely understand that it's the stock 50% portion of the portfolio and I do the sam...
by BigJohn
Tue May 09, 2017 10:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: LMP-2: Should you take the lump sum?
Replies: 26
Views: 3419

Re: LMP-2: Should you take the lump sum?

So one way to be a disciplined spender is to set up a 30 year tips ladder. This might bring structure to someone who is already a fairly disciplined spender but not sure this would help in most cases. The lump sum is so large relative to existing savings that it creates the emotional reaction of "w...
by BigJohn
Mon May 08, 2017 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: LMP-2: Should you take the lump sum?
Replies: 26
Views: 3419

Re: LMP-2: Should you take the lump sum?

I recently took the lump sum but was grandfathered into a plan using 95% of the 30 year treasury rate so it was just too good a deal to pass up. I have implemented an LMP approach using high quality short and intermediate term bond funds not TIPS. I'm giving some consideration to moving a portion of...
by BigJohn
Mon May 08, 2017 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to efficiently use FIRECALC?
Replies: 19
Views: 1668

Re: How to efficiently use FIRECALC?

Thank you, but then how else I can decide if my retirement saving plan is enough? right now I am really struggling with knowing what is the bare minimum that at least I should be saving for retirement (specially I started late in the game), and thought that calculator can help with that.. I agree w...
by BigJohn
Mon Apr 17, 2017 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Customer Service
Replies: 301
Views: 33269

Re: Vanguard Customer Service

littlebird, thanks for the PM.

Doc, thanks for the example, never had that issue but my account structure and needs appear to be more simple, at least right now.
by BigJohn
Mon Apr 17, 2017 6:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me decide pension benefits, single life, 50%, 75% and/or 100% survival benefits
Replies: 41
Views: 3355

Re: Help me decide pension benefits, single life, 50%, 75% and/or 100% survival benefits

Is the pension COLA'd? I suspect not so don't forget that 100% of today's number might only be worth 50 -75% of the purchasing power in 10 - 20 years. The uncertainty of inflation on a non-COLA'd pension is the best reason to go with the 100% option in my opinion.
by BigJohn
Mon Apr 17, 2017 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Customer Service
Replies: 301
Views: 33269

Re: Vanguard Customer Service

Unless/until the day comes when 1 spouse needs to act for the other, or a child needs to act for the surviving spouse. Then problems really begin at Vanguard. littlebird, I'm interested in what issues you've had. I have full agent authorization to act on behalf of my wife and haven't had any issues...
by BigJohn
Mon Apr 17, 2017 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Customer Service
Replies: 301
Views: 33269

Re: Vanguard Customer Service

Just can't bear the thought of sending a paper check to Vanguard... I've done it twice without issue. Funds invested as instructed 3 business days after the check was put in the mail (2 days transit, 1 day to get in VG system). I've also done share donation to charities via paper and snail mail wit...
by BigJohn
Sat Apr 08, 2017 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for a source to analyze Fixed Index/Equity Indexed Annuities
Replies: 18
Views: 1331

Re: Looking for a source to analyze Fixed Index/Equity Indexed Annuities

I was asked to help someone in a similar situation, fortunately they only had one fixed index annuity. I'm not aware of any comprehensive website to analyze but here is a discussion I started to get some input based on the specifics of their annuity https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2...
by BigJohn
Thu Apr 06, 2017 5:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension -lump sum or monthly payout?
Replies: 29
Views: 2329

Re: Pension -lump sum or monthly payout?

I had to make this decision recently. I took the lump sum for reasons in put in this discussion https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2016199 There are lots of other discussions on this topic that you can find with a search, here are a couple https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php...