Search found 1468 matches

by BigJohn
Wed Feb 08, 2017 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wow, Vanguard Flagship service is bad. Really bad.
Replies: 170
Views: 30036

Re: Wow, Vanguard Flagship service is bad. Really bad.

Longtime customer and have always found their service top-notch. However, I start every conversation with a secure email, which is followed by a phone-appointment. Consistent with my experience and the process I use. When I've sent email in advance my flagship reps (3 reps in 10 years) have always ...
by BigJohn
Tue Feb 07, 2017 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How steep should the glide path be?
Replies: 54
Views: 4734

Re: How steep should the glide path be?

My two cents.... I think there are two issues at work here. First is the traditional glide path to increase bonds and decrease risks as you get older. Conceptually this is driven by decreasing human capital and increasing portfolio size so there is less need/ability to take higher risk with stocks. ...
by BigJohn
Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio too heavy with Stock Options
Replies: 10
Views: 1375

Re: Portfolio too heavy with Stock Options

Even if I sell all vested shares, forgoing a significant amount of Time Value in the later grants, 14.1 % of our total would be concentrated in the company. Of course, that total is hypothetical, as all of the remaining shares are unvested Restricted Stock Units and Performance Shares, whose value/...
by BigJohn
Fri Feb 03, 2017 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio too heavy with Stock Options
Replies: 10
Views: 1375

Re: Portfolio too heavy with Stock Options

You are worried about the concentration for several valid reasons. If the options are vested, why not exercise and sell for cash? You obviously give up some up-side potential but you also reduce your down-side potential. There is no free lunch so you can't get one without the other but based on what...
by BigJohn
Fri Feb 03, 2017 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance when you meet your number
Replies: 106
Views: 11455

Re: Risk tolerance when you meet your number

Sandtrap, I agree with Random Walker, all the rules and guidelines (age in bonds, 4% SWR, etc) are just starting points to get you in the right ballpark and thinking about the right questions. In your example above the individual has enough assets that they can have almost any asset allocation and i...
by BigJohn
Thu Feb 02, 2017 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance when you meet your number
Replies: 106
Views: 11455

Re: Risk tolerance when you meet your number

niners, in the years on either side of retirement you are vulnerable to what's call sequence of return risk. Here's an article that I think explains it well https://www.kitces.com/blog/managing-po ... -red-zone/
by BigJohn
Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do ROTH conversion or not?
Replies: 23
Views: 2699

Re: Do ROTH conversion or not?

Conversion is not an all or nothing thing. With all the assumptions and variables involved, I think ending up with a mix of tIRA and Roth assets is a good end point. It increases flexibility to respond to the kinds of issues mentioned above as well as the unknowns (eg tax code changes). My current s...
by BigJohn
Wed Feb 01, 2017 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do ROTH conversion or not?
Replies: 23
Views: 2699

Re: Do ROTH conversion or not?

roth ira is better than a tira for your heirs. Not necessarily. If the OP is paying 25% incremental but his heirs are in the 15% bracket when they inherit, the total left after taxes might be more if they inherit a tIRA. This is why another poster mentioned your heirs tax rate as one of the unknowns.
by BigJohn
Tue Jan 31, 2017 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance when you meet your number
Replies: 106
Views: 11455

Re: Risk tolerance when you meet your number

Very pertinent article and discussion on this topic here viewtopic.php?p=3217509.

Kitces gives a good explanation of the risks and advocates a lower equity allocation as you near and in early retirement.
by BigJohn
Mon Jan 30, 2017 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Projections for bonds if stocks tank
Replies: 26
Views: 2701

Re: Projections for bonds if stocks tank

livesoft wrote:Costco also sells reading glasses. :)
I guess I need them, had to read it several times to find my error :oops:
by BigJohn
Mon Jan 30, 2017 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Projections for bonds if stocks tank
Replies: 26
Views: 2701

Re: Projections for bonds if stocks tank

Eating Costco food stamps???? Doesn't sound very appetizing, dog food might be better :P
by BigJohn
Mon Jan 30, 2017 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Projections for bonds if stocks tank
Replies: 26
Views: 2701

Re: Projections for bonds if stocks tank

OP, if the market has a major correction and drops 50%, can you still pay the bills on 4% of that number? What if the correction is greater than 50%? If you are confident that you won't be eating dog food in these scenarios then I'd say your SWR is really closer to 3% and you'll likely be OK. I've n...
by BigJohn
Mon Jan 30, 2017 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance when you meet your number
Replies: 106
Views: 11455

Re: Risk tolerance when you meet your number

Random Walker, I'm 60 and retired at 58. Several years ago my plan was to hold a constant 60/40 thru retirement but for just those reasons I've backed off to between 35% and 40% equity. I also increased international from 20% to 30% of my stock allocation. Dr Bernstein's books were a large part of d...
by BigJohn
Mon Jan 30, 2017 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Projections for bonds if stocks tank
Replies: 26
Views: 2701

Re: Projections for bonds if stocks tank

You didn't ask but I'll mention anyway that 4% is a very aggressive SWR if you are really retiring at 50 per your user name. I believe the Trinity study and the 4% SWR guidance was based on retirement at 65.
by BigJohn
Mon Jan 30, 2017 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance when you meet your number
Replies: 106
Views: 11455

Re: Risk tolerance when you meet your number

Just reread William Bernstein's very short e-book, The Ages of the Investor: A Critical Look at Life-Cycle Investing. Strongly recommend it. Given current valuations, the last 5 pages or so are very pertinent to this discussion. Amen!! A great book that I reread this week as well. It's not clear to...
by BigJohn
Sun Jan 29, 2017 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance when you meet your number
Replies: 106
Views: 11455

Re: Risk tolerance when you meet your number

the sequence to retirement and in retirement would progress like this: Home Runs > Base Hits > Walks > Stop Playing? IE: 80/20 > 60/40 > 50/50 > 40/60 AA etc. as one ages? Hmmm.... isn't this the classic "age in bonds" approach that is often advocated on this site regardless of whether it's a 6 or ...
by BigJohn
Sat Jan 28, 2017 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance when you meet your number
Replies: 106
Views: 11455

Re: Risk tolerance when you meet your number

How are you taking a chance per se? You have safely secured the assets that add up to your number in their own separate accounts or holdings at the AA you said you would use in your IPS. Only the additional contributions after and above and beyond your number are invested aggressively and even if t...
by BigJohn
Sat Jan 28, 2017 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance when you meet your number
Replies: 106
Views: 11455

Re: Risk tolerance when you meet your number

It would depend on if you wanted to take a chance on meaningfully upping your lifestyle in retirement. Of course, taking a chance on meaningfully upping your lifestyle also means that you take some risk of meaningfully lowering your lifestyle if things don't go well. It's easy to focus on the poten...
by BigJohn
Sat Jan 28, 2017 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance when you meet your number
Replies: 106
Views: 11455

Re: Risk tolerance when you meet your number

Let me go back to my original point -- if your number allows you to meet you basic needs for eternity with money in TIPS -- then you have worked too long OR you are severely mis-representing what your basic needs are. What comprises basic needs? Food? Shelter? Easy to plan out. Transportation, here...
by BigJohn
Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance when you meet your number
Replies: 106
Views: 11455

Re: Risk tolerance when you meet your number

If you've just hit your number and have a high allocation to stock you are one market correct from being well below your number again. IMO how you manage this depends on how young you are and how far away your desired retirement date is. If you're in your 30's or early 40's and have 15 - 20 more yea...
by BigJohn
Wed Jan 25, 2017 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein "If You Can"
Replies: 22
Views: 6283

Re: Bill Bernstein "If You Can"

Don't waste your time on The Ages of The Investor, I found "the Middle game" to be lacking in the type of advice one who is there may really need, it's really generic. Different strokes for different folks..... I found The Ages of the Investor very helpful, especially the section on the middle game...
by BigJohn
Tue Jan 24, 2017 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: minimum necessary to retire at defined expense level
Replies: 37
Views: 3956

Re: minimum necessary to retire at defined expense level

I took a look at the resources you mentioned - not the full article and book, but summaries for the moment. So at some point, if you have 60x or 75x or 100x, the sequence of return risk is pretty much moot, right? Are there prevailing views about what that "_X" is? I will note that I have greater t...
by BigJohn
Tue Jan 24, 2017 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: minimum necessary to retire at defined expense level
Replies: 37
Views: 3956

Re: minimum necessary to retire at defined expense level

These are helpful responses that indicate I have more than enough. Thank you. Still a little worried about the sequence of returns risk, but I shouldn't be, I guess, since I make it to the end even if the sequence goes horrendously against me. If you have more than enough you've "won the game" but ...
by BigJohn
Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon Phishing Email after Order
Replies: 16
Views: 3242

Re: Amazon Phishing Email after Order

Thanks for all the responses. No indication that my email account has been hacked and it did go to my spam folder so no harm done. I do recognize that Amazon is a very large retailer but I've never gotten a phishing attack based on them until this. Certainly could be just a coincidence but..... I gu...
by BigJohn
Mon Jan 23, 2017 8:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon Phishing Email after Order
Replies: 16
Views: 3242

Amazon Phishing Email after Order

Last night I placed an order with Amazon. Nothing atypical, one item through Prime and another from one of their big resellers. Today I received a phishing email entitled "Amazon Has a Surprise For You". It was not from an Amazon email account. It prominently displayed Amazon's name but not the corr...
by BigJohn
Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Umbrella insurance questions and help
Replies: 19
Views: 2709

Re: Umbrella insurance questions and help

There are many forum discussion on umbrella insurance that you can find with a search that could give you more information. Here are a few comments based on my experience. While not required, it's usually easiest to get umbrella coverage from the company that provides car/home insurance as well. The...
by BigJohn
Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Understanding Muni Bond Fund Please
Replies: 8
Views: 1137

Re: Help Understanding Muni Bond Fund Please

You'll receive a 1099DIV for that but as long as everything is listed as "Exempt Interest dividends" in Box 10, it will be tax free. Some funds do pay tiny amounts of taxable interest, etc. Of course you will have to include everything on your tax return as it could effect other things like how muc...
by BigJohn
Fri Jan 13, 2017 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Few BND Questions
Replies: 12
Views: 1132

Re: A Few BND Questions

I am 55 hoping to retire at 65. So I get the importance of not being overweighted in stocks. However, I can't imagine that, in the case of a severe stock market correction, I wouldn't be tempted to sell my BND and buy VTI and VXUS. If you were at my stage in life, what degree of correction would ma...
by BigJohn
Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: all the debate over tilting away from market-cap weighting
Replies: 27
Views: 2857

Re: all the debate over tilting away from market-cap weighting

2. If tilting is wrong why then do people not think tilting to equities to capture equity risk premium is wrong. There is a long history of data to support small and value tilting as much/ near as much as the equity risk premium. Some may disagree but I don't see this as an apples to apples compari...
by BigJohn
Sat Jan 07, 2017 4:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirees: How much cash do you keep?
Replies: 103
Views: 11451

Re: Retirees: How much cash do you keep?

Again just my opinion.... safe means the principle is not at risk of reduction in the near to medium term. There is no free lunch so this mean I accept inflation risk with this money. It's important to match the risk to the purpose. The purpose of cash is covering unexpected events in the near to me...
by BigJohn
Sat Jan 07, 2017 3:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirees: How much cash do you keep?
Replies: 103
Views: 11451

Re: Retirees: How much cash do you keep?

My two cents based on my circumstances.... Cash means both that the principle is safe and it's liquid. Bank saving/checking accounts meet this criteria and I have my 6 month emergency fund there. I also have 2 years of expenses in a ST Treasury bond fund with check writing enabled. Granted the princ...
by BigJohn
Sat Jan 07, 2017 6:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirees: How much cash do you keep?
Replies: 103
Views: 11451

Re: Retirees: How much cash do you keep?

Looks like I need a new post specifically for the early retirement people with only mutual fund Stock/bond investment income. See my post earlier in this discussion. I retired early and don't plan to take SS until age 70. I took my pension as lump sum so all my income is from stock/bond investment....
by BigJohn
Thu Jan 05, 2017 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 247
Views: 36170

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

I'm going stick with my 2016 plan, sooner or later I have to be right :oops:

Fund Name: ACE in the Hole

Long:
Apache (APA)
Chevron (CVX)
ExxonMobil (XOM)

Short:
Facebook (FB)
Netflix (NFLX)
Amazon (AMZN)
by BigJohn
Mon Jan 02, 2017 7:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Potential “Horse Race” Conversion
Replies: 52
Views: 4665

Re: Potential “Horse Race” Conversion

That said, who cares? Since this is about Roth conversions, we are talking about IRAs here, not taxable. I agree, no worries about capital gains, clearly not an issue. My reasons for wanting share transfer was the desire not to be out of the market in cash for several days. Obviously a big price mo...
by BigJohn
Sun Dec 25, 2016 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Potential “Horse Race” Conversion
Replies: 52
Views: 4665

Re: Potential “Horse Race” Conversion

Our Flagship representative performed the “upgrade” of our accounts with the results, as I have reported. The difference in representatives seems to be at the root of the inconsistency issue. FWIW for comparison, I started this year with a tIRA and a rollover IRA both on the old platform and no Rot...
by BigJohn
Sun Dec 25, 2016 6:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Potential “Horse Race” Conversion
Replies: 52
Views: 4665

Re: Potential “Horse Race” Conversion

hushpuppy, I'm surprised that your four recently opened Roth accounts only have one account number while I ended up with two. It sure would be nice to understand what caused these different results. If you get any insight into why the outcomes are different, I (and others) would certainly appreciate...
by BigJohn
Sun Dec 25, 2016 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Index vs American Funds?
Replies: 45
Views: 22837

Re: Vanguard Index vs American Funds?

Another good article by Larry Swedroe here https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=3159733 . In the intro he has some data about why performance from 20+ years ago is not very meaningful today. He then goes on to give additional reasons why active management is not likely to be a good choice.
by BigJohn
Sun Dec 25, 2016 7:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Potential “Horse Race” Conversion
Replies: 52
Views: 4665

Re: Potential “Horse Race” Conversion

I will not like the idea either, if Vanguard will not cooperate and provide separate account numbers. I don't understand the background/history on this sub-account issue but at least in my experience this is not a worry. I've opened up two Roths this year in my name and have two separate account nu...
by BigJohn
Sat Dec 24, 2016 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Potential “Horse Race” Conversion
Replies: 52
Views: 4665

Re: Potential “Horse Race” Conversion

Yes. I followed the instructions here under "Convert an existing traditional IRA to a new Roth IRA": https://investor.vanguard.com/ira/roth-conversion Well, this seems inconsistent with what I was told but I can't argue with experience. One final question, did the money go over as a share transfer ...
by BigJohn
Fri Dec 23, 2016 1:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Potential “Horse Race” Conversion
Replies: 52
Views: 4665

Re: Potential “Horse Race” Conversion

Can I ask how one could specify the T-IRA without there being separate T-IRA account numbers? hushpuppy, obviously if you want them recharacterized into separate accounts you'd need separate account numbers. As I recall, the valid concern that celia had for not going back to original account was th...
by BigJohn
Fri Dec 23, 2016 5:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Potential “Horse Race” Conversion
Replies: 52
Views: 4665

Re: Potential “Horse Race” Conversion

I just (a couple days ago) did a conversion from an old-style account to a newly-opened, new-style account. Where you able to do this on-line? What I was told was that on-line conversion was not possible. VG's website seemed to verify this as there was no "Convert to Roth" menu option on my old-sty...
by BigJohn
Thu Dec 22, 2016 10:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Potential “Horse Race” Conversion
Replies: 52
Views: 4665

Re: Potential “Horse Race” Conversion

Alan, not sure what the historical issue was but here is my experience from this year. Any perspective on how this relates to your concern would be appreciated. Conversion of tIRA account to new platform done on-line this past summer without issue, new account structure reflected on-line the followi...
by BigJohn
Thu Dec 22, 2016 9:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Potential “Horse Race” Conversion
Replies: 52
Views: 4665

Re: Potential “Horse Race” Conversion

Hushpuppy, I've never done it but from what I've read the key to clean recharacterization is having separate Roths for each of the horses in the race. Nothing I've read has indicated the need for separate tIRA's to start the process. At the end of this process I assume that 3 of the 4 investments wi...
by BigJohn
Wed Dec 21, 2016 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VWIUX Vanguard Intermediate Tax Expt - Should I trade out?
Replies: 22
Views: 2975

Re: VWIUX Vanguard Intermediate Tax Expt - Should I trade out?

Five, I'm not worried about current losses or rising interest rates over the next few years. Simply taking advantage of the recent drop in price to sell at a loss for tax optimization. Since I've had gains this year, this will offset those so 35-40% of the losses come back to me in reduced taxes. As...
by BigJohn
Wed Dec 21, 2016 12:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we get LTC Insurance?
Replies: 22
Views: 3194

Re: Should we get LTC Insurance?

My policies have an unlimited length and amount of payment. There is a daily limit of $255 with a 5% a year increase for the first 15 years. I'm guessing you bought your policies years ago when LTC first started as this was commonly offered. Many providers have gone out of the business since then d...
by BigJohn
Wed Dec 21, 2016 12:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 16 yo, first book on investing
Replies: 28
Views: 2282

Re: 16 yo, first book on investing

smartinwate wrote:William Berstein's "If You Can"
A great start, short and to the point. All my kids have a copy and available for free here http://www.etf.com/docs/IfYouCan.pdf
by BigJohn
Tue Dec 20, 2016 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VWIUX Vanguard Intermediate Tax Expt - Should I trade out?
Replies: 22
Views: 2975

Re: VWIUX Vanguard Intermediate Tax Expt - Should I trade out?

104...

I sold Int and Ltd Term Tax Exempt to Short Term Tax Exempt, reminder in my phone to repurchase in 31 days
by BigJohn
Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirees: How much cash do you keep?
Replies: 103
Views: 11451

Re: Retirees: How much cash do you keep?

I keep ~6 months of expenses in a savings account linked to our checking account with overdraft protection. All my bills are on auto-pay from checking. I did this so that if I get hit by a bus tomorrow my family doesn't have to worry about where/when/how to pay bills to keep things running. Gives th...
by BigJohn
Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $400,000 Roth Conversions Between Ages 66-69?
Replies: 156
Views: 27051

Re: $400,000 Roth Conversions Between Ages 66-69?

I don't think you will. There are no absolutes with making Roth conversion decisions (there are some no-brainers at the extremes, but not for most of us). In order to make an informed decision, one needs to consider many potential future scenarios. Do both spouses live to 100? Does one die next yea...