Search found 1614 matches

by BigJohn
Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks?
Replies: 135
Views: 14375

Re: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks

The stock market does not have a covering law that anyone can find. So numbers are not useful data. In total agreement about the stock market when in comes to predicting absolute return or stock picking. That's a good restatement of what I learned years ago. However, the numbers on average return a...
by BigJohn
Tue Oct 21, 2014 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks?
Replies: 135
Views: 14375

Re: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks

In find engineers tend to be data driven, logical, and do not let emotions influence decision making. Those seem like excellent attributes which would lead them to a boglehead investing mentality. . In my experience Engineers are NUMBERS driven. Whether the numbers are relevant data is often the is...
by BigJohn
Sun Oct 19, 2014 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Kindle HDX or iPad Air?
Replies: 17
Views: 2030

Re: Kindle HDX or iPad Air?

Ged or Afty,

Is there an app that will let me read my Kindle books on the Nexus 7?
by BigJohn
Sun Oct 19, 2014 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TBM too much treasury?
Replies: 67
Views: 7422

Re: TBM too much treasury?

I still want to know: if not the Barclay's Float-Adjusted Aggregate Index, then what index? Nisi, here's Doc's answer to what bond index he wants to track http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2163913#p2163913 . There are funds that track this index. Here's an example http://www.wellsfarg...
by BigJohn
Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me choose... [Retirement withdrawal strategy]
Replies: 12
Views: 1706

Re: Help me choose...

I am not retired but will be in the next couple of months at age 58 and so have given this issue a lot of thought. FWIW, here's my two cents on your choices. Age in bonds - This is closest to my plan although I am going to be a bit more aggressive starting off retirement at 60/40. I plan to glide to...
by BigJohn
Sun Oct 19, 2014 8:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Kindle HDX or iPad Air?
Replies: 17
Views: 2030

Re: Kindle HDX or iPad Air?

Feedback from all very much appreciated. The "hidden" issues with using Android apps is exactly the kind on real world experience for which I was looking.
by BigJohn
Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Kindle HDX or iPad Air?
Replies: 17
Views: 2030

Kindle HDX or iPad Air?

I've read several head-to-head comparisons on this topic most of which would seem to show that the Kindle HDX is at least on par and maybe superior to an iPad. Looking for input from any actual users on this forum on pros/cons and whether you are satisfied with your Kindle HDX?
by BigJohn
Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TBM too much treasury?
Replies: 67
Views: 7422

Re: TBM too much treasury?

Apparently diversification is important for stocks, but unimportant for bonds. To me it's far less about diversification and much more about wanting control of my risk in bonds. Here's a thread on the exact same subject from a couple of months back with additional data and good discussion http://ww...
by BigJohn
Thu Oct 16, 2014 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: new accounts - getting ready to retire
Replies: 14
Views: 1958

Re: new accounts - getting ready to retire

An advisor mentioned he would roll each into its own IRA account, but didn't elaborate why. Are there any restrictions on rolling over both the 401k and cash balance funds into one IRA? I couldn't see any. I'm about to retire shortly as well. I have an existing tIRA account started years ago and wa...
by BigJohn
Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any reason not to buy the International Bond Index Fund?
Replies: 15
Views: 4053

Re: Any reason not to buy the International Bond Index Fund?

I remain unconvinced that VTABX--or any hedged international bond fund--offers any meaningful diversification from domestic bond funds. The Vanguard research paper certainly didn't do anything to convince me otherwise. On the other hand, I don't think an allocation to VTABX will result in any great...
by BigJohn
Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feeling very fortunate today!
Replies: 90
Views: 19471

Re: Feeling very fortunate today!

Basically I have the best job of my life but it consumes my entire life during the week. I am defintiely getting tired of not having free time during the week to pursue other interests plus weekends getting eaten up by errands. The biggest concern I have with my current job besides stress is mainta...
by BigJohn
Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reverse Mortgages
Replies: 21
Views: 2735

Re: Reverse Mortgages

drawpoker wrote:Nope, they make the association that he sure is one of the good guys because he played one on TV (the crusading prosecutor on Law and Order)
Yep, unfortunately that's the one my parents believed. Makes me angry every time I see that commercial
by BigJohn
Tue Oct 14, 2014 9:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reverse Mortgages
Replies: 21
Views: 2735

Re: Reverse Mortgages

I've been looking into these recently for my mother. Reverse mortgages aren't quite as bad as they used to be as there were many rules and regulation changes a few years back, most for the better. Still, there is room for improvement. They are expensive and complex, and they should probably be used...
by BigJohn
Sat Oct 11, 2014 2:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much of your Emergency Fund would you lock up in CDs?
Replies: 37
Views: 4093

Re: How much of your Emergency Fund would you lock up in CDs

Ally is not alone in have words that make it clear they may or may not allow you to redeem their CDs early. In addition to my desire not to have administrative details/delays, the IF makes CDs for emergency funds unacceptable for me.
by BigJohn
Sat Oct 11, 2014 7:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much of your Emergency Fund would you lock up in CDs?
Replies: 37
Views: 4093

Re: How much of your Emergency Fund would you lock up in CDs

I'm with Nisi. I want guaranteed instant access to my emergency funds so they are kept in linked bank checking/savings account with overdraft protection. Earning next to nothing in terms of interest but that's a price I'm willing to pay for the peace of mind that I can write a check on those funds a...
by BigJohn
Thu Oct 09, 2014 12:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 52
Views: 6892

Re: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?

So you can see that tilting has had made a major real-world difference in the recent past. The idea that it's just the number 3.0 versus the number 3.15 is a bit deceptive. Of course, whether or not this attractive backtest has anything to do with the future is another matter. countmein, a couple o...
by BigJohn
Wed Oct 08, 2014 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 52
Views: 6892

Re: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?

Why I don't tilt in three catch phrases.... 1) "Past performance is no guarantee of future results". Even the proponents of tilting will agree that they are higher risk and can under perform for long (ie 10+ years) periods. Lots of statistical analysis and theories as to why the factor premiums exis...
by BigJohn
Mon Oct 06, 2014 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual bonds v Bond funds
Replies: 10
Views: 1381

Re: Individual bonds v Bond funds

scienceguy, until about 5 or 6 years ago I was buying individual munis because there was no low cost fund for my state. Decision to stop driven by two factors 1) Funds are much more diversified and therefore are lower risk. I realized that I was never going to be expert enough to do anything other t...
by BigJohn
Sun Oct 05, 2014 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ?Which Funds to chose in Vangaurd?
Replies: 9
Views: 1103

Re: ?Which Funds to chose in Vangaurd?

Probably it is worth doing as a do-it-yourself learning exercise, but don't expect this "experiment" to demonstrate your FA is earning the market less fees any time soon. The stock market is extremely noisy. IMO, it will take many years to get some clear result. I agree it's going to be very diffic...
by BigJohn
Fri Oct 03, 2014 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for advice - First Investment
Replies: 7
Views: 1048

Re: Looking for advice - First Investment

Suggest you read Bill Berstein's "If you Can". A short read (maybe an hour or two) and written by a well respect expert specifically for people your age. Contains a good list of additional reading material. Bill is gracious enough to give away copies for free at his website here http://efficientfron...
by BigJohn
Tue Sep 30, 2014 1:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High yield muni bonds
Replies: 16
Views: 1988

Re: High yield muni bonds

ogd, thanks for the compliment, means a lot coming from someone with you're depth of knowledge on bonds!

I can confirm that none of the high quality national muni funds from VG (VWLTX, VWITX, VMLTX, VWSTX, and their Admiral fund counterparts) have had any AMT liability in at least the 5 or 6 years.
by BigJohn
Mon Sep 29, 2014 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High yield muni bonds
Replies: 16
Views: 1988

Re: High yield muni bonds

I am considering various ways to generate income from my portfolio. Has anyone used high yield muni bonds in their strategy? Bonds are complicated but one things is always true.... higher yield = higher risk. I took a quick look at M* data and I do not believe that these funds are even close to equ...
by BigJohn
Sat Sep 27, 2014 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Read too many books... help untangle
Replies: 48
Views: 5827

Re: Read too many books... help untangle

What I am still in the wilderness on: A market portfolio versus a tilted or SnD Do I really care to keep up on the care and feeding of a more complicated allocation Do tilts REALLY matter Does Fama French REALLY matter (I see this as separate from tilts as you can tilt various ways) I had to come t...
by BigJohn
Sat Sep 27, 2014 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Read too many books... help untangle
Replies: 48
Views: 5827

Re: Read too many books... help untangle

Don't think you're going to get the kind of consensus to untangle all these thoughts on this forum. Many here believe in highly tilted multi-factor portfolios while others just as firmly believe in the market indexed 3 fund portfolio. Even with this wide variety of specifics, there are some common b...
by BigJohn
Thu Sep 25, 2014 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Now a Good time to Buy Bonds ???
Replies: 19
Views: 3030

Re: Is Now a Good time to Buy Bonds ???

One way to look at this is that you are over your target allocation so it's time to rebalance. Disciplined rebalancing counters the urge to market time and pushes you to sell high (the stock you'll have to sell) to get back to target. If you're nervous about going from 95% to 80% in one shot, go to ...
by BigJohn
Wed Sep 24, 2014 12:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Personal finance book for young adults?
Replies: 7
Views: 955

Re: Personal finance book for young adults?

I'd recommend Bill Bernstein's "If You Can". I sent pdf copies to all my 20-something children, nieces and nephews.

Here a link to the free pdf version on Bill's website http://efficientfrontier.com/ef/0adhoc/2books.htm
by BigJohn
Tue Sep 23, 2014 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I've made it (almost)
Replies: 9
Views: 2582

Re: I've made it (almost)

Starbuxinvestor, You started a thread back in June with a somewhat similar question in which I participated. This seems a bit different in terms of being trapped in a "3 more month" mentality. I've been eligible to retire for just over three years but only started to give it serious thought earlier ...
by BigJohn
Mon Sep 22, 2014 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emergency fund question. please help
Replies: 14
Views: 2473

Re: Emergency fund question. please help

My two cents based on what I view as the critical attributes of my EF. I would not use I Bonds, T Notes or CDs due to lag time/hassle in accessing when needed. Depending on the type of emergency, you might not want to take the time to cash in, deposit to checking account and then wait for transactio...
by BigJohn
Sat Sep 20, 2014 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Premiums: Size, Value, Beta, Momentum
Replies: 40
Views: 4334

Re: Premiums: Size, Value, Beta, Momentum

Larry, a pretty bold statement to say Rick Ferri is just thinking incorrectly. I won't comment any further.
by BigJohn
Sat Sep 20, 2014 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time Has Gone Quickly, 3 Months Till Retirement
Replies: 32
Views: 5339

Re: Time Has Gone Quickly, 3 Months Till Retirement

TxPanther, I'm three months away from retirement myself. I'm not a bucket person but a few comments/questions based on my experience and plans. An AA of 70/30 is a bit on the aggressive side for my taste but it's unclear what your planned SWR is. If your at 2%, you've got enough conservatism in your...
by BigJohn
Sat Sep 20, 2014 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Premiums: Size, Value, Beta, Momentum
Replies: 40
Views: 4334

Re: Premiums: Size, Value, Beta, Momentum

I don't have any clue why Rick would make such a statement. Larry, I found this post from Rick in another thread on a similar subject (emphasis added by me) http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2069592#p2069592 Alpha goes to the manager. In other words, any premiums that do accrue are ev...
by BigJohn
Fri Sep 19, 2014 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Premiums: Size, Value, Beta, Momentum
Replies: 40
Views: 4334

Re: Premiums: Size, Value, Beta, Momentum

Larry, I known you're a believer and from your perspective that's the right question. However, Rick's comment above about not expecting a premium after fees for the factors listed in thread title is what I was asking about. Certainly does not seem to be a very compelling statement of support for fac...
by BigJohn
Fri Sep 19, 2014 1:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Premiums: Size, Value, Beta, Momentum
Replies: 40
Views: 4334

Re: Premiums: Size, Value, Beta, Momentum

Big John FWIW--all investors are factor investors, it's just that some don't know it. If you own TSM you are a factor investor --just in one single factor of beta. Now you may not view it that way but that's what is going on. Larry, I never thought about the ERP vs bonds as a factor but won't argue...
by BigJohn
Wed Sep 17, 2014 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Premiums: Size, Value, Beta, Momentum
Replies: 40
Views: 4334

Re: Premiums: Size, Value, Beta, Momentum

My advice is to invest in factor funds judiciously, perhaps 25% of an equity portfolio, be very patient, and don't plan to earn much of a premium if any after fees. Rick, I am not a believer in the benefits of factor investing but this statement still has me a bit confused. Why would anyone want to...
by BigJohn
Wed Sep 17, 2014 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Will Bill Gross beat the Total Bond Market Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 7658

Re: Will Bill Gross beat the Total Bond Market Index?

Steelersfan, interesting article that explains a lot of the unknowns about PTTRX discussed here, thanks for posting. Call_Me_OP, if someone wants an active that's fine but my issue is that this is seen as a conservative intermediate term bond fund. On M* it's benchmarks are the same as VG Total Bond...
by BigJohn
Wed Sep 17, 2014 5:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Safe Withdrawl Rate
Replies: 25
Views: 3131

Re: Safe Withdrawl Rate

From what I've read sequence of return risk can be virtually eliminated by a glide path strategy and applying the withdrawal rate to the previous year end portfolio balance. I agree that withdarwal rate applied to previous year balance can eliminate sequence of return risk as long as you're willing...
by BigJohn
Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension Lump Sum - New Question
Replies: 11
Views: 1710

Re: Pension Lump Sum - New Question

Agree with Frugal Al that calculations look correct. I also agree that there are some good reasons at your age to at least consider the lump sum. I'm 58 as well and while my circumstance are not the same as yours, tow of my reasons for going with the lump sum that my apply to you are 1) Taking the a...
by BigJohn
Tue Sep 16, 2014 7:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Safe Withdrawl Rate
Replies: 25
Views: 3131

Re: Safe Withdrawl Rate

My budget does include a fair amount of discretionary spending that could be eliminated (i.e. private country club membership and $20,000 plus per year for travel). What would your suggestions be to make certain we don't deplete our principal? No perfect answer but based on the past studies you sho...
by BigJohn
Tue Sep 16, 2014 6:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Safe Withdrawl Rate
Replies: 25
Views: 3131

Re: Safe Withdrawl Rate

I won't adjust the withdraw rate for inflation every year, rather I'll apply the 3.5% to the previous years ending portfolio balance. This approach could result in significant changes in spending from year-to-year. For example, five years out when you're at 30% stock, if the market corrects by 40% ...
by BigJohn
Mon Sep 15, 2014 10:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension Lump Sum - New Question
Replies: 11
Views: 1710

Re: Pension Lump Sum - New Question

fearandloathing, I'm faced with a similar decision in the next few months although lump sum is an option built into our pension plan. The way I looked at this is what is the NPV (net present value = lump sum payment) of the future stream of income that your pension guarantees. Key variables you need...
by BigJohn
Mon Sep 15, 2014 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To Tilt or Not to Tilt - Rick Ferri's Latest
Replies: 88
Views: 13439

Re: To Tilt or Not to Tilt - Rick Ferri's Latest

The key, in my view is a long-term view, patience, and conviction in your approach to last through the inevitable periods of poor performance, during which causal new entrants will sell when 'smart beta' underperforms 'regular beta'. Robert T, very interesting survey, thanks for the link. All of th...
by BigJohn
Sat Sep 13, 2014 4:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 401(k) 20% Mandatory Tax Withholding
Replies: 24
Views: 4997

Re: 401(k) 20% Mandatory Tax Withholding

One way to circumvent these problems is to simply roll over your 401(k) into an IRA once you retire. Then you can take distributions from your IRA, which is not subject to any tax withholdings. The problem with this strategy is that IRA's do not enjoy the same protections that 401(k) accounts do. F...
by BigJohn
Sat Sep 13, 2014 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Percentage of bond money in foreign bonds
Replies: 8
Views: 1422

Re: Percentage of bond money in foreign bonds

20% of bonds in International has become part of Vanguards standard allocation. However, lots of people on this forum don't see a compelling reasons to add international bond exposure, myself included. If you do a forum search on the subject you find several threads that will give you some insight i...
by BigJohn
Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IRA to Roth conversion after retirement ?
Replies: 14
Views: 2210

Re: IRA to Roth conversion after retirement ?

JohnFiscal, I'm 58 and am going to retire in about 3 months. I have a significant portion of our assets in tIRA from 401(k) conversion and none in a Roth. My plan is to delay SS until age 70 and do tIRA to Roth conversions each year for the next 12 years at which point SS and RMD's hit and will kick...
by BigJohn
Fri Sep 12, 2014 12:05 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!
Replies: 380
Views: 74800

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!

Victoria, finally made my decision so you can add me to your upcoming graduate list. Last day at work Dec 17, 2014 and I'll be age 58.

P.S. Are you still on track to go from aspiring to actual flâneur in less than two weeks?
by BigJohn
Thu Sep 11, 2014 11:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quit/retire - should I do this?
Replies: 41
Views: 5335

Re: Quit/retire - should I do this?

Thinking about quitting my job and essentially retiring early. Not sure how things work at your company but key question I'd ask based on this statement is "Are you eligible to retire?" At many companies, this requires some combination of years of service and age. This is a critical question becaus...
by BigJohn
Thu Sep 11, 2014 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Small and Value Tilting
Replies: 72
Views: 7043

Re: 100% Small and Value Tilting

You only have a 40+ year horizon now. In 20 years it will be a 20+ year horizon and what will you do then? Are you really going to stay at 100% stocks? What about 10 years later when you've only got 10 years left? What if when you think it's time to transition to more bonds SCV is in the middle of a...
by BigJohn
Wed Sep 10, 2014 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should anyone invest in short-term bonds at this point?
Replies: 46
Views: 5214

Re: Should anyone invest in short-term bonds at this point?

I agree that it's worth worrying about it a bit in the "long" muni funds, as in -- don't buy them enthusiastically for the high yield expecting not to pay for it with risk -- but that's about it. Just get the intermediate instead. I was in the long muni fund for years because yield was a good bit h...
by BigJohn
Wed Sep 10, 2014 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Asset Allocation and a large stock position
Replies: 23
Views: 2965

Re: Help with Asset Allocation and a large stock position

OpenRoad,

Outstanding result for you and glad I could help! :beer
by BigJohn
Wed Sep 10, 2014 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should anyone invest in short-term bonds at this point?
Replies: 46
Views: 5214

Re: Should anyone invest in short-term bonds at this point?

I think both of you are overthinking this. Sure, if you switch to short bonds before a time like summer 2013 you might avoid a few percent in losses, but if you're six months early and a year late on the other end, which if you're even a little humble you should see as quite likely, you give it awa...