Search found 1485 matches

by BigJohn
Sat Jul 26, 2014 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum Investing ?
Replies: 55
Views: 6727

Re: Momentum Investing ?

Heck no. Let's just agree on a standing "tee time" to meet on the internet and discuss/argue? Excellent, I love a good debate with a worthy opponent :beer I think we already have our tee-time. It's every post with the word/acronym Factor, Tilt, Value, Momentum or DFA in the title. To continue this ...
by BigJohn
Fri Jul 25, 2014 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum Investing ?
Replies: 55
Views: 6727

Re: Momentum Investing ?

OK, well we are just going to end up with where you ended up with Larry here I am guessing. Yea but what would we do with our time if we didn't debate this topic a least every other week. I'll make a pledge to stop posting arguments against factor investing if you pledge to stop posting arguments f...
by BigJohn
Thu Jul 24, 2014 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What Has Time Taught Bill Bernstein?"
Replies: 19
Views: 4642

Re: "What Has Time Taught Bill Bernstein?"

Taylor, thanks for the link, a truly great article. As a engineer, the following really resonated with me. "As many other engineers and scientists have discovered, succeeding at investments isn't entirely the same as succeeding at science. Having a good feel for numbers is a necessary condition for ...
by BigJohn
Thu Jul 24, 2014 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking sample retirement portfolios
Replies: 13
Views: 1936

Re: Seeking sample retirement portfolios

You might want to do a forum search on this topic. Lots of current threads that might be of help to understand issues/questions that people in or near retirement (I'm one) are considering. Here are links to a few http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=143444 http://www.bogleheads.org/fo...
by BigJohn
Thu Jul 24, 2014 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum Investing ?
Replies: 55
Views: 6727

Re: Momentum Investing ?

I have also read his more fully formed, detailed, and more recent book "Rational Expectations." The book that has entire sections on tilting. In it he addresses this very question in pages 78-86. There is no doubt he thinks that factors exist and that they have excess returns and are more volatile....
by BigJohn
Thu Jul 24, 2014 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum Investing ?
Replies: 55
Views: 6727

Re: Momentum Investing ?

Exactly. Bernstein often writes/opines about factors perhaps decreasing a bit AND the ERP decreasing a bit. You can't just cherry pick one of them. Matjen, have you read the book? Lots of data based analysis in a single direction. When the masses can easily buy the factor or special asset, the corr...
by BigJohn
Thu Jul 24, 2014 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum Investing ?
Replies: 55
Views: 6727

Re: Momentum Investing ?

But here is best example--do you think ERP has disappeared given everyone knows equity has outperformed over long periods? However, the systemic changes since say 1950 IMO have shrunk premium---world is safer than it was after two world wars and Great Depression. And costs of trading and fund costs...
by BigJohn
Thu Jul 24, 2014 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Portfolio Proposal
Replies: 23
Views: 3457

Re: Retirement Portfolio Proposal

I think BigJohn provided a very good post that you should be able to relate too (i.e. same age, questions and concerns, etc.). I found it interesting that BigJohn and others have no interest in the new Total International Bond Index fund. I further found it interesting that there is no recommendati...
by BigJohn
Thu Jul 24, 2014 2:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum Investing ?
Replies: 55
Views: 6727

Re: Momentum Investing ?

Larry, You keep mentioning persistence of these factors over long periods of time. Just finished rereading Bill Bernstein's "Skating Where the Puck Was". Many examples were the "system" changes as soon as the ability to easily buy that factor becomes widely available. Near the end he says "If you've...
by BigJohn
Thu Jul 24, 2014 1:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Portfolio Proposal
Replies: 23
Views: 3457

Re: Retirement Portfolio Proposal

BigPrince, I'm in a similar situation, turn 58 in August and planning to retire around YE or early in 2015. FWIW, my plan is a 60/40 allocation to stock/bonds with 25% of stocks in international. Majority of assets in simple 3-fund portfolio. Exception to this are older VG funds with large LTCG and ...
by BigJohn
Tue Jul 22, 2014 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can it be wrong to be too risk averse?
Replies: 49
Views: 3771

Re: Can it be wrong to be too risk averse?

But would you, or someone, be able to share a bit about what the risks of inflation could be? Since the inflation rate is unknown, how does one factor that into their investment choices? Simply said, the risk of inflation is that you have less purchasing power in future years because your investmen...
by BigJohn
Tue Jul 22, 2014 6:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which Bernstein Book?
Replies: 27
Views: 2848

Re: Which Bernstein Book?

Isn't this book his most math intensive? More math intensive than "Four Pillars" but about the same as "The Intelligent Asset Allocator". I did not find the math daunting but I'm an engineer and enjoy that part so somewhat biased. If you are not interested in the math, I honestly think you can just...
by BigJohn
Tue Jul 22, 2014 12:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which Bernstein Book?
Replies: 27
Views: 2848

Re: Which Bernstein Book?

LongerPrimer wrote:Read his latest book, Rational Expectations. Older books were written for their times.
+1

Just finished it and have read his other books as well. This one has his most recent thinking post 2008/09 and with current low interest rate environment.
by BigJohn
Tue Jul 22, 2014 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can it be wrong to be too risk averse?
Replies: 49
Views: 3771

Re: Can it be wrong to be too risk averse?

thethinker, Two comments He is very risk averse and invests only in very high rated bonds (mostly muni bonds). Unless he is a very skilled professional, investment in individual muni bonds is more risky than investing in a muni bond fund. No different that investing in an individual stock is more ri...
by BigJohn
Mon Jul 21, 2014 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond funds- your percentage of intermediate vs. short-term?
Replies: 12
Views: 1717

Re: Bond funds- your percentage of intermediate vs. short-te

Bustoff, I am not an expert but Total Bond Index does contain short term bonds. Here's data from VG website and shows that Total Bond is intermediate term in average only with both long and short term included. Under 1 Year = 1.2% 1 - 3 Years = 26.8% 3 - 5 Years = 20.8% 5 - 10 Years = 36.8% 10 - 20 ...
by BigJohn
Sun Jul 20, 2014 8:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buy a condo for college?
Replies: 29
Views: 3111

Re: Buy a condo for college?

I looked into this option about 8 years back in similar circumstances but with three kids. Lots of people in town pushing and pursuing this option. Once I factored in all the costs (ie insurance, property tax, etc) it was just about a wash with renting. Ultimately concluded that financially is was p...
by BigJohn
Fri Jul 18, 2014 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If You Can Free Kindle/NOT Free Paperback Available
Replies: 9
Views: 2058

Re: If You Can Free Kindle/NOT Free Paperback Available

Bill, Just wanted to say thanks for this booklet and even deeper thanks in making it available for free. I've given copies to all my children, nieces and nephews. Several have read it and started asking me good follow-up questions. I've also recommended it to several people on this site who are just...
by BigJohn
Thu Jul 17, 2014 11:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 24604

Re: a close look at value and momentum

MO an appropriate benchmark is one that targets momentum. That is what you're after with a momentum fund. AQR does say that their momentum indexes have their highest correlation with growth indexes (Russell 1000 Growth, Russell 2000 Growth, MSCI World ex-USA Growth), but the performance is certainl...
by BigJohn
Thu Jul 17, 2014 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Grad needing some advice
Replies: 19
Views: 2463

Re: New Grad needing some advice

Congratulations on being first in your family to graduate from college!!! I was in your shoes 37 years ago and still remember how awesome it felt. Agree with above advice and reading. In addition I would strongly recommend Bill Bernstein's booklet "If You Can". It is written specifically for someone...
by BigJohn
Thu Jul 17, 2014 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 24604

Re: a close look at value and momentum

livesoft & stlutz,

Interesting reading, thanks for posting the links.
by BigJohn
Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 24604

Re: a close look at value and momentum

Larry, you know I'm not a factor fan but I do try to read and learn from all of these threads. I've seen a lot recently about MOM and your advice to own multiple factors. In thinking about this I've begun to wonder whether MOM and SCV are somewhat mirror images. In other words, if MOM is going after...
by BigJohn
Thu Jul 17, 2014 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: POLL: Do you have a dedicated REIT allocation?
Replies: 123
Views: 11301

Re: POLL: Do you have a dedicated REIT allocation?

pennstater2005 wrote:I voted for "never have and likely never will" because I haven't ruled it out completely. It is not part of my IPS presently.
+1
by BigJohn
Thu Jul 17, 2014 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Bond Market vs Muni
Replies: 6
Views: 1187

Re: Total Bond Market vs Muni

I prefer a mix of stocks and bonds in IRA so that I can rebalance without worrying about tax consequences. As a result, I have both stocks and bonds in taxable. My bonds in taxable are in both the VG Intermediate Term and Limited Term National Muni funds. They are somewhat higher risk but I'm in the...
by BigJohn
Mon Jul 14, 2014 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Investor - Looking To Play and Need Advice
Replies: 7
Views: 1160

Re: New Investor - Looking To Play and Need Advice

ElectricCrow, My advice would be to start by reading "If You Can" by William Bernstein. A short booklet but contains a good overview of the basics on how to get started. Available as a Kindle download for $0.99. Some things in this booklet and other reliable sources that are not quite aligned with w...
by BigJohn
Sun Jul 13, 2014 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiring soon setting aside 3 years living expenses
Replies: 49
Views: 6562

Re: Retiring soon setting aside 3 years living expenses

StarbuxInvestor, I'm in a very similar situation with retirement 6 - 12 months out. Here's my current plan on how to structure my assets for living expenses until SS/RMD time which for me is ~ 12 years away. Will have ~ 6 months living expenses in linked checking/savings account from which bills are...
by BigJohn
Sat Jul 12, 2014 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 24604

Re: a close look at value and momentum

As to the rest, it seems to me this goes to my baseball analogy. Hey the Braves didn't beat the Cubs 9 to 7 because 6 of the Braves runs came in only 2 innings. The total score is the total score not what innings. Analogy doesn't hold up well when you move to the next day and the Cubs beat the Brav...
by BigJohn
Fri Jul 11, 2014 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 24604

Re: a close look at value and momentum

It apparently doesn't matter that there is a fair amount of peer reviewed papers and theories taught by top notch finance profs, that practitioners have used these factors for decades, and that the historical record indicates that there has been better returns, that even Jack Bogle admits SCV has o...
by BigJohn
Thu Jul 10, 2014 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation At or Near Retirement?
Replies: 51
Views: 7772

Re: Asset Allocation At or Near Retirement?

I am two and a half months away from retirement. Instead of considering the asset allocation, I am keeping a large amount in safe assets that would provide me with sufficient cash while I am waiting to collect Social Security at the age of 70. Countdown, you might get some benefit from this current...
by BigJohn
Wed Jul 09, 2014 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 24604

Re: a close look at value and momentum

IMO the test of whether a factor should be relied on when deciding on strategy is it is persistent and pervasive. The ERP passes that test. Whatever your opinion on value and MOM they too pass that test. In fact, the small value premium has been at least as persistent as the equity premium, and jus...
by BigJohn
Wed Jul 09, 2014 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 24604

Re: a close look at value and momentum

Just like the equity risk premium unless you believe bonds provide higher long run returns. rrpve Beat me to it, that statement only shows the bias of the writer I just don't see the equity premium for stock vs bonds as even close to the same. Basic investing 101 always starts with the fact that th...
by BigJohn
Wed Jul 09, 2014 12:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 24604

Re: a close look at value and momentum

I enjoyed this recent article by Jason Zweig on what long term and persistent factors can be generated by data mining. http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/06/27/huge-returns-at-low-risk-not-so-fast/ Sign me up to buy some PPPP since it has more than double the return of the S&P 500 over the past 1, ...
by BigJohn
Tue Jul 08, 2014 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to w/d from taxable until SS/RMD time gets here?
Replies: 29
Views: 2622

Re: How to w/d from taxable until SS/RMD time gets here?

BolderBoy, I'm in a very similar situation with retirement 6 - 12 months out. Here's my current plan on how to structure my taxable assets for living expenses until SS/RMD time which for me is ~ 12 years away. Haven't noticed it mentioned here but don't forget that taxes on tIRA conversions will nee...
by BigJohn
Mon Jul 07, 2014 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In Which Theories Should I Have Confidence?
Replies: 43
Views: 5784

Re: In Which Theories Should I Have Confidence?

Beltane, great "rant". I could completely identify with almost every line. FWIW, here's what finally convinced me that all the items in your rant about stocks were noise that I just needed to tune out. Let's be pessimistic and say that total stock going forward will only return 4%/yr. Now let's be r...
by BigJohn
Sun Jul 06, 2014 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation adjustment of one's "number" and TIPS
Replies: 4
Views: 829

Re: Inflation adjustment of one's "number" and TIPS

Agree with lawman that a static number could lead you to the wrong conclusion. One example .....if you retire at 65 a conventional rule of thumb would say you can afford a 4% sustainable withdrawal rate. This implies that you need at least 25 times your annual expenditures (including taxes) in the f...
by BigJohn
Sun Jul 06, 2014 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about dividend stocks in taxable account
Replies: 2
Views: 505

Re: Question about dividend stocks in taxable account

You're not missing anything. Assuming that you are going to buy & hold large to medium sized US companies the dividends should be considered qualified dividends as are most of your dividends from VTSAX.

Good luck with your fun money!!
by BigJohn
Fri Jul 04, 2014 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions about diversification and rebalancing
Replies: 6
Views: 717

Re: Questions about diversification and rebalancing

Bernstein talks about this in his latest book "Rational Expectations" which just came out in the last month or two. His fourth in his recent Investing for Adults series. I'm about half way through, very interesting and worthwhile reading. Link to Kindle version here http://www.amazon.com/Rational-Ex...
by BigJohn
Fri Jul 04, 2014 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions about diversification and rebalancing
Replies: 6
Views: 717

Re: Questions about diversification and rebalancing

My perspective, hope it helps 1) Would it make sense to just keep the 2050 fund (which contains mostly total US market stocks and international stocks) and just add on other other investments, or would I want to get out of the 2050 fund altogether (perhaps because it changes over time) and just set ...
by BigJohn
Wed Jul 02, 2014 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "most [] research findings in financ[e] are likely false"
Replies: 63
Views: 6024

Re: "most [] research findings in financ[e] are likely false"

I'm finally getting around to reading Daniel Kahneman's Thinking: Fast and Slow and it seems as if what you are saying is almost literally true--assuming that the research findings in psychology are valid! Finished reading this book about a month ago and was quite taken back by the tricks that the ...
by BigJohn
Wed Jul 02, 2014 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "most [] research findings in financ[e] are likely false"
Replies: 63
Views: 6024

Re: "most [] research findings in financ[e] are likely false"

I've had a copy of Colin Powell's Leadership Primer in my desk for many years. This thread reminded me of Lesson Three in his presentation. "Don't be buffaloed by experts and elites. Experts often posses more data than judgement. Elites can become so inbred that they produce hemophiliacs who bleed t...
by BigJohn
Sat Jun 28, 2014 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman article: every investor needs Small Cap Value
Replies: 127
Views: 10099

Re: Paul Merriman article: every investor needs Small Cap Va

Of course, no guarantee, but I still will vote with my dollars for empirical evidence over gut feelings. I don't view my questions/concerns as "gut feelings". They are based on historical evidence no different than the SCV premium. The fact the they lead to different conclusions certainly generates...
by BigJohn
Sat Jun 28, 2014 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman article: every investor needs Small Cap Value
Replies: 127
Views: 10099

Re: Paul Merriman article: every investor needs Small Cap Va

Longtimelurker, Have you read the articles by Bogle & Swenson and the quote from Bernstein earlier in this thread? I am not trying to be insulting! The reason I ask is that you keep talking about academic papers. I'm by no means an expert but I've read a few and they are just that, an academic analy...
by BigJohn
Fri Jun 27, 2014 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which 40% stock portfolio would you choose?
Replies: 9
Views: 1354

Re: Which 40% stock portfolio would you choose?

Be aware that there is substantial disagreement on whether a small cap value tilt is truly beneficial. You'll see some of this in the thread from Lady Geek. You might also read these threads to get some feel for the diversity of opinion. http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=141809 ht...
by BigJohn
Fri Jun 27, 2014 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking advice on starting an IRA
Replies: 10
Views: 742

Re: Seeking advice on starting an IRA

You've gotten great advice from others. I'd add the following Read William Bernstein's "If You Can". It is specifically written for people your age. Only ~ 16 pages and can be read in about an hour but gives you all the important points as well as reading suggestions for later. You can buy a Kindle ...
by BigJohn
Fri Jun 27, 2014 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Questions - New Member
Replies: 15
Views: 1722

Re: Portfolio Questions - New Member

My perspective below, hope it helps. 1. I have read about the pros and cons of placing the most tax-efficient investments in the least tax-efficient account types and vice versa to reduce near-term taxes. I would prefer to stay with Rick Ferri’s alternate approach to this asset location strategy and...
by BigJohn
Fri Jun 27, 2014 1:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Low Exp. Ratio 0.0018% - Am I missing something
Replies: 23
Views: 3187

Re: Low Exp. Ratio 0.0018% - Am I missing something

I've been trying to figure out how this stock even got in there since it's not part of her elected funds to contribute towards. Then it dawned on me that this is probably the company's way of matching her contribution, which they do up to 5%. Presuming that's the case, does it affect this in any wa...
by BigJohn
Fri Jun 27, 2014 12:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some questions/clarification about risk and diversification
Replies: 13
Views: 1081

Re: Some questions/clarification about risk and diversificat

Some reading material from the wiki and a link from the wiki that might help with more detail regarding your specific question. http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Bogleheads_Investment_Philosophy#Never_bear_too_much_or_too_little_risk http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Vanguard%27s_investment_philosophy htt...
by BigJohn
Thu Jun 26, 2014 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman article: every investor needs Small Cap Value
Replies: 127
Views: 10099

Re: Paul Merriman article: every investor needs Small Cap Va

Can you please provide some references/URLs showing where Bogle and Swensen say "SV investing is a waste of time"? Here's a speech from Bogle that includes his views on several sorts of tilts with his analysis to back it up. https://personal.vanguard.com/bogle_site/sp20020626.html Three quotes from...
by BigJohn
Wed Jun 25, 2014 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman article: every investor needs Small Cap Value
Replies: 127
Views: 10099

Re: Paul Merriman article: every investor needs Small Cap Va

Read the article tonight and came looking for the inevitable thread on SCV/DFA vs no tilt/VG. For those that did not participate, here's the last really good one from less than a month ago http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=140243 Having given serious consideration to both sides, I...