Search found 985 matches

by czeckers
Fri Jan 18, 2008 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Averaging Help Needed
Replies: 7
Views: 2493

There is a table in the book (sorry I can't give you the page as I can't access it now) that bases the expected rate of return on the current 10-yr treasury bond rate, and the expected beta of your portfolio. If I recall correctly, the table went down to a 10yr treasury rate of 6.0% and stopped, so ...
by czeckers
Fri Jan 18, 2008 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10yr TIPS real yield at 1.43%... question for Larry
Replies: 24
Views: 4204

10yr TIPS real yield at 1.43%... question for Larry

Larry, I happened to look at the US treasury yield curves and saw that the 10yr TIPS has fallen below 1.5%. I want to check my understanding regarding the numerous previous discussions here regarding TIPS/nominal bonds ratios. The real yield is low now because the expectation of the rising inflation...
by czeckers
Wed Jan 16, 2008 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this the right "time?"
Replies: 53
Views: 19719

I agree, market timing, can't do it. However, a response I often hear is, "What about when its obvious that we are in a market bubble?" With the internet bubble being quoted. I have a hard time coming up with a strong argument against the position that sometimes P/E ratios and valuations get so far ...
by czeckers
Tue Jan 15, 2008 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG- State tax exempt MMF and AMT question
Replies: 5
Views: 1165

TFB, I googled around and found your calculator. I want to thank you as it does *exactly* what I need. Being able to run the same numbers with and without the AMT was particularly useful. Given my situation in NY, I find that the NY-exempt MMF is superior under both tax treatments. Of interest was t...
by czeckers
Tue Jan 15, 2008 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG- State tax exempt MMF and AMT question
Replies: 5
Views: 1165

Thank you for your posts. LH, I must admit I hadn't considered your angle at all.

-K
by czeckers
Tue Jan 15, 2008 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing and passive vs active
Replies: 52
Views: 9690

My 2 cents... In my mind the difference between active and passive investing is that an active investor is essentially placing bets to try to *beat* a certain benchmark whereas the passive investor is content to use index funds to match that benchmark. I agree with Larry that the initial AA determin...
by czeckers
Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG- State tax exempt MMF and AMT question
Replies: 5
Views: 1165

VG- State tax exempt MMF and AMT question

For those who are subject to the AMT, it seams that the advantage of using the VG state-specific tax exempt MM funds is pretty much lost. You are taking a lower yield to start with, but then end up having to pay taxes on that income anyway. Is this a correct assessment?
by czeckers
Fri Jan 11, 2008 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Good time to buy Gold for investment and where to buy?
Replies: 20
Views: 4155

To me its never a good idea to buy an asset that's hitting record highs. In order to make money, it will need to continue to set new records. The downside seems to be much greater. Buy low, sell high. There are many arguments for or against buying gold. However, if you're interested in having it as ...
by czeckers
Thu Jan 10, 2008 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Opportunistic Rebalancing: A New Paradigm
Replies: 69
Views: 21282

I would generally agree given the statement that tolerance bands of 25, 50, or 75 percent made no difference... but why no mention of 0%? Many investors are invested in tax-deffered accounts with mutual funds, there are no tax consequences and no overt trading costs removing the barriers to rebalanc...
by czeckers
Thu Jan 10, 2008 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any positive news out there
Replies: 7
Views: 1855

You could save up to 15% percent on your auto insurance by switching to Geico. Disclaimer: This is post is for entertainment purposes only and it does not constitute an advertisement, recommendation, or endorsement. The reported figure is for illustrative purposes only. Actual results may vary. I ha...
by czeckers
Thu Jan 10, 2008 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Opportunistic Rebalancing: A New Paradigm
Replies: 69
Views: 21282

The tolerance band concept (or standard process control threory per cherijoh) in interesting... something I'm still trying to wrap my brain around. Does anyone know of any papers that address this specifically?

-K
by czeckers
Tue Jan 08, 2008 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Opportunistic Rebalancing: A New Paradigm
Replies: 69
Views: 21282

I agree. In several places in the article they refer to minimizing transaction costs. They also take tax implications into account, saying that by using the 20% band, that the extra 80bp or so they achieved via this method more than offset the costs. I'm sure the margin would be slimmer if additiona...
by czeckers
Tue Jan 08, 2008 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Opportunistic Rebalancing: A New Paradigm
Replies: 69
Views: 21282

Say a fund exceeds the rebalancing band and triggers a transaction to bring it back into line, it will necessarily require an exchange into or out of another fund to balance the trade. Assuming two funds with equal weights within a portfolio: If Fund A exceeds the band by 20% and fund B drops below ...
by czeckers
Tue Jan 08, 2008 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs clobbered
Replies: 77
Views: 17964

Along a similar line of thought, I recently read a quote from someone saying that if you were not ALWAYS loosing money somewhere in your portfolio, you were not truly diversified........ Boy, am I diversified!! Ditto. Every month I rebalance back to my target AA with new money in all my accounts. I...
by czeckers
Tue Jan 08, 2008 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Opportunistic Rebalancing: A New Paradigm
Replies: 69
Views: 21282

I definitely found the article to be very interesting. I've been wondering for a while why Swenson rebalances daily. I was making the assumption that it was just resetting everything to predetermined ratios daily, which did not make a lot of sense unless to take advantage of very choppy markets. I t...
by czeckers
Fri Jan 04, 2008 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2008 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Replies: 317
Views: 78269

It's good to note that most diehards are bullish on 2008.

-K
by czeckers
Thu Jan 03, 2008 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 landmark [easy read] short articles
Replies: 8
Views: 4287

Great post, very useful articles. Is there a way to save or mark threads on this forum?

-K
by czeckers
Tue Jan 01, 2008 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2008 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Replies: 317
Views: 78269

1352
by czeckers
Tue Jan 01, 2008 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [poll] your 2007 rate of return
Replies: 76
Views: 19554

My 403b has had about $600 on average since my poor student days when I worked for two years as a lab tech in 1998-2000. I remember being absolutely overwhelmed by the fund selections which included Vanguard, TIAA-CREF, T. Rowe Price, and Fidelity. Though I didn't know anything about investing, I re...
by czeckers
Sat Dec 29, 2007 12:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: AMT BILL SIGNED BY PRES
Replies: 17
Views: 3426

I must admit that I have a very difficult wrapping my head around the AMT. I understand its history, but how does one figure out whether or not one will be subject to it in the first place? Clearly its not just a function of income.

-K
by czeckers
Thu Dec 27, 2007 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% safe withdrawal rule: does it work for other countries?
Replies: 61
Views: 16695

This is a good discussion, thanks! The question of whether or not having a surplus is an interesting one. On one hand, LH is correct in that having more than expected obviously is not a bad thing in the sense that it either allows one to reduce the portfolio risk to maintain the same SWR or to incre...
by czeckers
Sun Dec 23, 2007 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best financial decision in 2007?
Replies: 43
Views: 10450

Thanks! The biggest variable affecting my savings rate going forward(barring personal/family tragedy) will be how many more children we have. The 529 contributions represent a substantial sum as it is.

-K
by czeckers
Sun Dec 23, 2007 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best financial decision in 2007?
Replies: 43
Views: 10450

Finally able to pay off credit cards and start saving aggressively. Beardstown portfolio growth near infinity at this point (happens if you start near zero). Able to put away 40% of my gross income, not counting company match... definitely proud of that.

-K
by czeckers
Wed Dec 19, 2007 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many S&D international?
Replies: 16
Views: 2807

I struggled with the same question for a bit, because there are 2 ways to look at it. One can slice by region (i.e. europe, pacific, EM) or by style (i.e. large v. small, blend v. value). The key I think is trying to find slices with the least amount of correlation. As such, regardless of how you go...
by czeckers
Fri Nov 30, 2007 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Large Growth
Replies: 30
Views: 5921

I think we will naturally see more talk about whatever asset is outperforming at the time. In recent times it has been small and value tilting, REITs, and EM. In the future... who knows. In the relatively short time I've been following this forum, I've noticed two main diehard phylosophies here: 1) ...
by czeckers
Mon Nov 26, 2007 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Averaging - Profiting from Overreaction
Replies: 5
Views: 1811

I read the same passage in the newer book (don't remember which data set was used), but the conclusion was the same as you mentioned. Quarterly was best, but monthly wasn't too much behind. Given the caveats that go with making future projections based on past data, and the relatively small differen...
by czeckers
Mon Nov 12, 2007 7:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Value" Cities:Most Affordable Places to Live Well
Replies: 29
Views: 6602

Daisy Dog...

I always suspected I would like Colorado. Now if only I could convince all of my family to move.

-K
by czeckers
Mon Nov 12, 2007 7:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm Writing a Story About the Bogleheads
Replies: 18
Views: 5140

That is a GREAT poster! Would love to have that hanging up.

-K
by czeckers
Mon Nov 12, 2007 7:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Munch Fund
Replies: 18
Views: 4938

I second LH's comments. It takes courage to make such predictions ex-ante, and demonstrates that MM is taking it seriously. Whether he is successful or not... time will tell, certainly the odds are against him. I'm curious as to what benchmark we would use to compare against. TSM? Good luck MM. -K P...
by czeckers
Mon Nov 12, 2007 6:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Value" Cities:Most Affordable Places to Live Well
Replies: 29
Views: 6602

I just left Pittsburgh for family reasons after having lived there for 9 years. I think of it a lot like value investing. It got beat up pretty bad in the late 80's-early 90's with most of the steel mills closing down. However it has since seen an amazing transformation with a lot of tech firms bein...
by czeckers
Sat Nov 10, 2007 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Larry: Question for you, related to the idea...
Replies: 13
Views: 3421

Thank you Larry. I and I'm sure a lot of other members on this forum truly appreciate your willingness to educate.
by czeckers
Fri Nov 09, 2007 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An idea for visualizing the impact of rebalancing
Replies: 12
Views: 2416

One problem with EF calculations is that they are backward looking and are very dependent on the time period looked at. An investor calculating the EF today based on data going back to 1929 will get very different results than someone doing the same calculation in 1998, or 1970, etc. It tells you wh...
by czeckers
Fri Nov 09, 2007 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Larry: Question for you, related to the idea...
Replies: 13
Views: 3421

I have followed your many posts regarding this strategy and I think it is finally beginning to sink in. Your % split between ST/TIPS is based on real yields. When Vanguard reports its yield on their TIPS bond fund (VIPSX), currently at 1.94%, does that represent real yield or nominal yield? They off...
by czeckers
Sun Nov 04, 2007 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need advice regarding will
Replies: 22
Views: 5482

Since we are looking to have someone manage the assets on behalf of the children and their caretakers, it seems that we are in fact looking to establish a trust... unless there are other options.

I see that Vanguard does offer trust management services. Does anyone have experience with them?

-K
by czeckers
Sun Nov 04, 2007 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need advice regarding will
Replies: 22
Views: 5482

Thank you so much for all your helpful replies. One common thread is that an estate planning attorney is required. If for no other reason, I'm glad I posted this link as I would have just gone to a general attorney. As far as having substantial assets... well not quite yet. I'm still negative becaus...
by czeckers
Fri Nov 02, 2007 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foreclosures double in 3d quarter
Replies: 11
Views: 2027

ElJay... there is generally a time lag between listing prices and actual market prices in a market with decreasing values. Homeowners hoping to sell at their 200% increased assessed values have to suffer through the house sitting on the market for a while before reducing prices to the new market lev...
by czeckers
Fri Nov 02, 2007 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk premium going forward
Replies: 3
Views: 902

Risk premium going forward

I'm trying to make some rough calculations regarding expected future returns, and have come to realize that there is a wide variety of opinions on the expected risk premioum of stocks over bonds. On one hand is the historical spread of about 5% (if memory serves correctly). On the other hand, there ...
by czeckers
Tue Oct 30, 2007 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Results
Replies: 46
Views: 13023

I casually compare my portfolio to the various lazy portfolios whenever Scott Burns posts an update. That's about it... and it's primarily for entertainment value. The problem with benchamarking is that if you have an all index fund portfolio, your portfolio is its own benchmark for your particular ...
by czeckers
Fri Oct 26, 2007 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need advice regarding will
Replies: 22
Views: 5482

Thanks for the replies... I see I have much to learn in this area. How does one find a trustee to manage the trust. I've been with VG for 10+ years now, is that something they could provide?

-CZ
by czeckers
Thu Oct 25, 2007 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need advice regarding will
Replies: 22
Views: 5482

Need advice regarding will

We are in the early stages or drafting a will, and are wondering about the kinds of provisions that could be used to look after our children in the event that both my wife and I die. We currently have 4 young children. My in-laws have agreed to raise them if something were to happen to us. In the ev...
by czeckers
Thu Oct 25, 2007 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VALUE
Replies: 13
Views: 2442

Growth may have beat value, but my globally diversified portfolio with a strong small and value tilt has still done very well. Diversification does its thing and makes it easier to stay the course IMO> Thanks for the post SH.
by czeckers
Sat Oct 20, 2007 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for Simba's backtest spreadsheet
Replies: 3
Views: 974

Thank you very much for the quick replies.

-K
by czeckers
Sat Oct 20, 2007 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for Simba's backtest spreadsheet
Replies: 3
Views: 974

Looking for Simba's backtest spreadsheet

Several months ago someone posted a link to Simba's latest backtest spreadsheet, which alas I am now unable to locate. Can anyone please direct me in the right direction?

-K
by czeckers
Thu Oct 11, 2007 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone planning to split their large cap index holdings?
Replies: 0
Views: 667

Anyone planning to split their large cap index holdings?

If I understand correctly, VG will be rolling out a new mega-cap index based on the MSCI 300 index. This will effectively allow one to split the existing MSCI 750-based large-cap index into the mega-cap 300 + mid-cap 450 -- if one so desired, without any overlap. For the splitters here, one can also...
by czeckers
Thu Oct 11, 2007 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Automatic rebalancing at Vanguard?
Replies: 1
Views: 1071

Automatic rebalancing at Vanguard?

I was performing my routine rebalancing of my 403b at Vanguard when I noticed on the right side a button that said "rebalance." It didn't hit me until after I left the page, but when I came back it was gone. Is there some way to have VG automatically rebalance your account to a pre-determined AA at ...
by czeckers
Thu Oct 11, 2007 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recent Papers: Vanguard IC&R
Replies: 4
Views: 1220

Thanks for the articles. I found the first one to be of particular interest as it shed some light on a question which has been nagging me for a while now: TSM vs. tax-managed growth for taxable.

-K
by czeckers
Tue Oct 02, 2007 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Weak dollar and international investing
Replies: 5
Views: 1533

Thanks for the insighful response. My monthly investments are still considerably large relative to portfolio size so I am still buying into all asset classes every month. I know that once the portfolio grows a bit more, I will only be buying into the relative underperfomers. Just getting antsy. That...
by czeckers
Mon Oct 01, 2007 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Weak dollar and international investing
Replies: 5
Views: 1533

Weak dollar and international investing

Given the weak dollar, seems it would make sense to put new money only into domestic funds, especially given recent international overperformance and increased valuations.

Thoughts?

-K
by czeckers
Thu Sep 27, 2007 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry, Taylor et al Total portfolio return?
Replies: 15
Views: 3312

Vanguard will calculate 1,3, and 5 yr rates or return for my accounts.
by czeckers
Thu Sep 27, 2007 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: where are the dogs
Replies: 19
Views: 3696

I often see folks here quoting average historical values for things like P/E ratios. Where would be a good place to find such data along the lines of this conversation?

-K