Search found 7944 matches

by tadamsmar
Tue Jul 22, 2008 3:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Official Doom and Gloom Thread. Post all D&G msgs here
Replies: 117
Views: 23488

Quick, contrarians, buy some GM and Ford before they go bankrupt:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... =worldwide
by tadamsmar
Tue Jul 22, 2008 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would you do if your bank failed?
Replies: 32
Views: 5882

What would you do if your bank failed?

Suppose you had less that 100K in a bank. Would you bother to go stand in line to get your money? Isn't this a waste of time, since it is insured? I hear reports about the IndyMac bank run, but I don't see any of the press point out that most of these people in line (except for the few that needed t...
by tadamsmar
Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was it really Hard Figuring out Past Two Bear Markets?
Replies: 73
Views: 11849

Apprentice_941 wrote: Regarding these last two bear markets - was it REALLY that hard to know them once they started? I remember with the dot com hoopla thinking - unless I can see the real life changes that these dot coms bring in the world around me, then it's a farce - and it was a farce. By all ...
by tadamsmar
Sun Jul 20, 2008 4:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Official Doom and Gloom Thread. Post all D&G msgs here
Replies: 117
Views: 23488

retired at 48 wrote: Your list was not complete...how about this one: The world is in a grand experiment started in the 1970's when the last country, the USA, went off the gold standard. No country has any of its currency tied to something of value, like gold or silver. Gold has a value? What is the...
by tadamsmar
Sun Jul 20, 2008 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was it really Hard Figuring out Past Two Bear Markets?
Replies: 73
Views: 11849

CaptMidnight said: about 6 months before the 2001 recession, the Bloomberg polls of bold-faced economists showed that they overwhelmingly missed the impending recession. Before the 2001 recession it was 50 of the top 50 economists didn't see a recession coming. However, at both points in time there...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jul 18, 2008 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was it really Hard Figuring out Past Two Bear Markets?
Replies: 73
Views: 11849

CaptMidnight said: about 6 months before the 2001 recession, the Bloomberg polls of bold-faced economists showed that they overwhelmingly missed the impending recession. Before the 2001 recession it was 50 of the top 50 economists didn't see a recession coming. However, at both points in time there ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jul 18, 2008 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Official Doom and Gloom Thread. Post all D&G msgs here
Replies: 117
Views: 23488

US debt has grown relentlessly, more than doubled in 40 years to 336% of GDP:

http://lakeweb.com/money/creditmarketdebt_GDP_06.pdf
by tadamsmar
Fri Jul 18, 2008 8:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA vs. FSA
Replies: 8
Views: 2483

VictoriaF makes a good case for using the limited FSA under certain circumstances. As I do not wear glasses and do not expect any extensive dental work, I don't think I'll use the FSA yet. I will however fully fund the HSA ($2550/yr max), but am still unclear whether it makes sense to then pay for ...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question about Florida Homestead Protection/Nursing Homes
Replies: 3
Views: 974

Question about Florida Homestead Protection/Nursing Homes

A lawyer is told my wife and her elderly mother that she could protect her Florida home from nursing home care costs. The lawyer said to contact her and do the paperwork quickly if the mother had to go into a nursing home. Mother was resistant to making the legal changes now, I don't know why, she d...
by tadamsmar
Wed Jul 16, 2008 7:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Official Doom and Gloom Thread. Post all D&G msgs here
Replies: 117
Views: 23488

I am a particularly contrarian investor. The more Doom and Gloom messages I see, the higher the percentage of equities I pick for my asset allocation. Here you are, go all in!: "Merrill Lynch has warned that the United States could face a foreign "financing crisis" within months as the full consequ...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jul 15, 2008 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't Panic!
Replies: 4
Views: 2241

So long and thanks for all the five dollar freddie shares!
by tadamsmar
Tue Jul 15, 2008 7:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Official Doom and Gloom Thread. Post all D&G msgs here
Replies: 117
Views: 23488

I'll probably get a lot of flak for this, but I think one can make the case for further significant market declines ahead. If you go to the Smithers and Co. website and look at the graph of log(q/qav) (where q is Tobin's q) you will see that every time it moves from a significantly overvalued state...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jul 15, 2008 7:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Official Doom and Gloom Thread. Post all D&G msgs here
Replies: 117
Views: 23488

Buddtholomew wrote:...the evitable market decline?
Buddtholomew wrote:...the future is unknown...
When someone can manage to ask the question without blantantly contradicting themselves, I'll consider it.
by tadamsmar
Mon Jul 14, 2008 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own individual stocks? I bought Fannie Mae
Replies: 8
Views: 2999

The point that I am making is that while stock markets can and will fall at times, markets eventually come back and move to new highs.
Not true. Russian stock market after 1919, for example.
by tadamsmar
Sun Jul 13, 2008 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bubble babble
Replies: 25
Views: 4112

Cannot the oil bubble occur AFTER this bear market? That is, most stocks look like poor bets, except energy...buy now...only going up...blah, blah, blah. Basic brokerage talk. That's one scenario I'm trying to assess. There could be an oil/fossil fuels supply crunch after the bear market, if that's...
by tadamsmar
Sat Jul 12, 2008 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bubble babble
Replies: 25
Views: 4112

We can start with the price of oil. This may be a speculative bubble, it may not. There is tons of info available about it. No one needs to describe it to you, more information than you can possibly read exists. So, is the current oil price a bubble? I will arbitrarily define a bubble, for purpose ...
by tadamsmar
Sat Jul 12, 2008 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bubble babble
Replies: 25
Views: 4112

Re: Bubble babble

So-called bubbles are always identified after the fact, nobody has come up with a reliable method of predicting them. This is very true. Who could have predicted there would be a bubble in the Nasdaq prior to when it became obvious? Same with homebuilders. http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/i...
by tadamsmar
Sat Jul 12, 2008 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bubble babble
Replies: 25
Views: 4112

I expect market timers have predicted at least 5 of the last 2 bubbles
Greenspan said something like that about Shiller's stuff after spending a small fortune having his stuff analyzed.
by tadamsmar
Fri Jul 11, 2008 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bubble babble
Replies: 25
Views: 4112

A better word might be "Mania." Paul Goggle hits: "oil bubble" 300K "oil price rise" 200K "oil mania" 6K "oil craze" 2K Conclusion: Bubble babble's best. If you are going to babble, tis best to use language more popular than the unpresumptuous terms like "price rise". That's just my 2 cents.
by tadamsmar
Fri Jul 11, 2008 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bubble babble
Replies: 25
Views: 4112

And how about the value babble that always comes with the bubble babble? People use to babble about the value of stocks, usually a number based some trailing-earnings crunch or other. But, I noticed that the oil bubble babblers segwayed right into oil value babble with nary a thought about the fact...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jul 11, 2008 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bubble babble
Replies: 25
Views: 4112

Tadamsmar said: Oil prices collapsed in 1999, but I don't remember any bubble babble back then. Yup. They also collapsed in 1985 (a bad time to be in Houston in the oil business), but nobody predicted the decline, or called in a bubble (either before or after the fact). And there was a collapse in ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jul 11, 2008 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bubble babble
Replies: 25
Views: 4112

And how about the value babble that always comes with the bubble babble? People use to babble about the value of stocks, usually a number based some trailing-earnings crunch or other. But, I noticed that the oil bubble babblers segwayed right into oil value babble with nary a thought about the fact ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jul 11, 2008 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bubble babble
Replies: 25
Views: 4112

Re: Bubble babble

See the term "oil bubble" here and then we now have a tread on the "next bubble". Is the word "bubble" just meaningless babble? What would cause a bubble babbler to say "Opps I was wrong, it was not a bubble." So-called bubbles are always identified after the fact, nobody has come up with a reliabl...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jul 11, 2008 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bubble babble
Replies: 25
Views: 4112

Bubble babble

See the term "oil bubble" here and then we now have a tread on the "next bubble". Is the word "bubble" just meaningless babble? What would cause a bubble babbler to say "Opps I was wrong, it was not a bubble." So-called bubbles are always identified after the fact, nobody has come up with a reliable...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jul 08, 2008 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil price shock means China is at risk of blowing up
Replies: 9
Views: 1911

mas wrote:Isn't much of China's energy usage (and pollution) coal? Certainly the transportation of goods uses oil, but energy/GDP may not be relevant if the energy mix is not evaluated more closely.
The coal price doubled recently.
by tadamsmar
Tue Jul 08, 2008 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cantarell Prioduction Drops 34%
Replies: 15
Views: 2430

There is an organization called "OPEC" that does exactly that. Withhold production to drive the prices up. For some reason, they failed to accomplish their goals for about 25 years...and suddenly their actions seem to work. Something doesn't fit with that explanation. I guess withholding to drive u...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jul 08, 2008 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil price shock means China is at risk of blowing up
Replies: 9
Views: 1911

Oil price shock means China is at risk of blowing up

Are China stocks like the gas-guzzlers that are not worth what they were a few months ago? If distance is measured in money, then the shipping lanes had doubled and tripled in length. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/07/07/ccview107.xml Plus, China's manufacturing is relat...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jul 08, 2008 7:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cantarell Prioduction Drops 34%
Replies: 15
Views: 2430

If the expected price increase of oil is higher than what an oil field owner can earn at the bank in intrest, then some leave it in the ground. Inflation will impact the price of unharvested oil reserves. Also, the major US companies have been buying shares back for some time now. They are likely d...
by tadamsmar
Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cantarell Prioduction Drops 34%
Replies: 15
Views: 2430

by tadamsmar
Mon Jul 07, 2008 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil bubble
Replies: 228
Views: 33168

You have a goal of creating additional regularity authority in the hopes of preventing oil prices from rising. I suspect this is misguided. It's not just the oil markets. Signs of unusual behavior abound across the commodities markets. Take cotton, for example. In late February, the price of cotton...
by tadamsmar
Sun Jul 06, 2008 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation on Eff. Frontier including TSP G Fund
Replies: 63
Views: 8765

Re: A look at the efficient frontier

Do you have a guess or some knowledge of why financialengines seems to project G's return > F given that the 1988-present data does not seem to support that. Do they actually project higher returns for the G fund? That makes very little sense, as the F fund holds corporate and mortgage-backed bonds...
by tadamsmar
Sun Jul 06, 2008 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation on Eff. Frontier including TSP G Fund
Replies: 63
Views: 8765

Re: A look at the efficient frontier

Here are my calculations, covering the period 1988-2006 (table re-formatted) % Equities C+G C+F C+F/G 50/50 Std. Dev. Return Std. Dev. Return Std. Dev. Return 100 16.87 11.63 16.87 11.63 16.87 11.63 90 15.21 11.23 15.32 11.33 15.26 11.28 80 13.56 10.81 13.78 11.00 13.66 10.91 70 11.91 10.36 12.28 1...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jul 04, 2008 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil bubble
Replies: 228
Views: 33168

... more suppliers should be willing to flood the market to take advantage of temporary high prices. This doesn't seem to be happening. This pushing on a string. The OPEC ministers have all been saying that the market is well supplied. No buyers are being turned away. Surely there are unfullfilled ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jul 04, 2008 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation on Eff. Frontier including TSP G Fund
Replies: 63
Views: 8765

So 40/60 C+F was better than 50/50 C+G on both SD and return over 88 to 06 Given that, what's the argument for 100% G? The argument that David Grabiner has made to me in a couple threads (I think one of which I linked to) is that the period I used in the calculations was one of falling interest rat...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jul 04, 2008 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation on Eff. Frontier including TSP G Fund
Replies: 63
Views: 8765

Here are my calculations, covering the period 1988-2006 % Equities C+G C+F C+F/G 50/50 Std. Dev. Return Std. Dev. Return Std. Dev. Return 100 16.87 11.63 16.87 11.63 16.87 11.63 90 15.21 11.23 15.32 11.33 15.26 11.28 80 13.56 10.81 13.78 11.00 13.66 10.91 70 11.91 10.36 12.28 10.65 12.07 10.51 60 1...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jul 04, 2008 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation on Eff. Frontier including TSP G Fund
Replies: 63
Views: 8765

So 40/60 C+F was better than 50/50 C+G on both SD and return over 88 to 06

Given that, what's the argument for 100% G?
by tadamsmar
Thu Jul 03, 2008 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation on Eff. Frontier including TSP G Fund
Replies: 63
Views: 8765

PiperWarrior wrote:Would you like me to do the calculation?
I would.

When I started this thread, I was hoping the first reply would be the calculation.
by tadamsmar
Thu Jul 03, 2008 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation on Eff. Frontier including TSP G Fund
Replies: 63
Views: 8765

Re: Efficient frontier depends on the model

Many people on this board who invest in the TSP avoid the F fund because they believe that the F fund is not even on the efficient frontier of a TSP portfolio; the F fund gets higher returns than the G fund by taking credit and interest-rate risks which are correlated with the stock-market risk. (T...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jul 03, 2008 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation on Eff. Frontier including TSP G Fund
Replies: 63
Views: 8765

If your question is how to use the G Fund, the default answer is to use it as the L Funds use it. May I remind you that the way the L Fund uses the G Fund is by calculating the efficient frontier? Now may I refer you back to the OP? And, may I refer you back to the title of the thread: Asset Alloca...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jul 03, 2008 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation on Eff. Frontier including TSP G Fund
Replies: 63
Views: 8765

If your question is how to use the G Fund, the default answer is to use it as the L Funds use it. May I remind you that the way the L Fund uses the G Fund is by calculating the efficient frontier? Now may I refer you back to the OP? And, may I refer you back to the title of the thread: Asset Alloca...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jul 03, 2008 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation on Eff. Frontier including TSP G Fund
Replies: 63
Views: 8765

Year by year returns: G, F, Vg LT Treas 1998 5.74 8.70 13.05 1999 5.99 -0.85 -8.66 2000 6.42 11.67 19.72 2001 5.39 8.61 4.31 2002 5.00 10.27 16.67 2003 4.11 4.11 2.68 2004 4.30 4.30 7.12 2005 4.49 2.40 6.61 2006 4.93 4.40 1.74 2007 4.87 7.09 9.24 So I don't think the G fund is much like LT treasuri...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jul 03, 2008 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation on Eff. Frontier including TSP G Fund
Replies: 63
Views: 8765

You said: "TSP G seems similair to long term treasuries" Did you change your mind? No, I didn't - but Treasuries are not the same as Mortgages, Industiral and Agency debt or do you not understand the difference? Granted they don't behave precisely the same. But closer than the G I think. Both F and...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jul 03, 2008 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation on Eff. Frontier including TSP G Fund
Replies: 63
Views: 8765

TSP G seems similair to long term treasuries - just displace whatever allocation you have towards that with G fund and keep whatever percent the portfolio you are tracking allocates to REITs in the vanguard fund Without even bothering to find out how good that approximation is? I'm willing to bet i...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jul 03, 2008 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation on Eff. Frontier including TSP G Fund
Replies: 63
Views: 8765

I've always found false precision to be more ruinous than imprecise truth - the variance will be greater than the allocation itself so don't sweat it and approximate. Approximate based on what? TSP G seems similair to long term treasuries - just displace whatever allocation you have towards that wi...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jul 03, 2008 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation on Eff. Frontier including TSP G Fund
Replies: 63
Views: 8765

I've always found false precision to be more ruinous than imprecise truth - the variance will be greater than the allocation itself so don't sweat it and approximate. Approximate based on what? TSP G seems similair to long term treasuries - just displace whatever allocation you have towards that wi...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jul 03, 2008 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please help with my new portfolio contributions!
Replies: 13
Views: 2317

I think that if you substitute the G Fund for a bond allocation, then you perhaps increase risk while decreasing returns relative to the original allocation. I am not sure. By risk, do you mean volatility? If so, would you elaborate on why TSP G increases volatility? You are basically putting a mon...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jul 03, 2008 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please help with my new portfolio contributions!
Replies: 13
Views: 2317

Re: Please help with my new portfolio contributions!

I think that if you substitute the G Fund for a bond allocation, then you perhaps increase risk while decreasing returns relative to the original allocation. I am not sure. The L Fund allocations are based on an efficient frontier calculation. I am thinking that the best way to incorporate the G Fu...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jul 03, 2008 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation on Eff. Frontier including TSP G Fund
Replies: 63
Views: 8765

avalpert wrote:I've always found false precision to be more ruinous than imprecise truth - the variance will be greater than the allocation itself so don't sweat it and approximate.
Approximate based on what?
by tadamsmar
Thu Jul 03, 2008 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation on Eff. Frontier including TSP G Fund
Replies: 63
Views: 8765

I'm not sure what it is you are asking. There is nothing inherently more efficient regarding the L Fund allocations than an allocation you could create on your own using your various accounts. Such an allocation could model itself on various proposed allocations: Malkiel, Swensen, Vanguard Target R...