Search found 7618 matches

by tadamsmar
Thu Mar 13, 2008 3:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA (Health Savings Account) Question
Replies: 16
Views: 5811

Re: HSA (Health Savings Account) Question

I'm new to the HSA concept. I've heard people say that they make their contributions but pay for medical expenses out of pocket if possible. What is the rationale for this? Other than the obvious, are there any negatives? Thanks for any feedback. I have an HSA. Generally good. Minor negatives: 1. H...
by tadamsmar
Thu Mar 13, 2008 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the market is efficient, why is chasing performance bad?
Replies: 19
Views: 3546

Re: If the market is efficient, why is chasing performance b

The best way I can think of to explain what I am thinking is with an example. Let's say someone wins the lottery and you know what numbers they picked. If you wanted to "chase performance" you would use their same numbers again. Of course, the lottery is completely random so their is no benefit to ...
by tadamsmar
Wed Mar 12, 2008 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Big runup in the market today!
Replies: 41
Views: 6944

Re: Big runup in the market today!

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080311/wall_street.html The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 416 points today, or +3.55%, the biggest one day increase since July 2002. Is this a sign that the market is turning around? No. IMO, the market does not signal the market. Is a sign that the economic outlook is...
by tadamsmar
Wed Mar 12, 2008 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Big runup in the market today!
Replies: 41
Views: 6944

I always find it funny how many "diehards" keep track of the day to day movements of the S&P 500. :lol: I have to agree even though I do it to some extent. Makes you wonder if the real diehards are elsewhere. But, there is no diehard rule against timing your spending based on the market ups and dow...
by tadamsmar
Tue Mar 11, 2008 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Look At Oil Go!
Replies: 52
Views: 7380

nothing grows to the sky. oil prices will fall. it's not a question of if but when. when? nobody knows. Stock prices, too? yup. reversion to the mean. learn it. live it. love it. Well, the mean is not flat, for stocks anyway. If it is then we should not be investing! Since the market mean itself is...
by tadamsmar
Wed Mar 05, 2008 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beating the Total Stock Market
Replies: 16
Views: 3528

Re: Beating the Total Stock Market

It seems that Vanguard has at least two finds that, over the long run, match or beat the TOTAL STOCK MARKET FUND. And, the two funds do it with much less volatility. WELLINGTON and WELLESLEY. 10-year performance and longer matches or exceeds TSM. And a smoother ride. Even today, they are down less....
by tadamsmar
Mon Mar 03, 2008 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffet Says U.S. In Recession
Replies: 6
Views: 1628

Yeah, but he uses an unknown definition for recession! He could just predict/extrapolate that the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2008 will have negative growth. Why did he go all mealy-mouthed instead? Heck, a mild recession would be bullish at this point. We already have a zero 4th quarter of last year pri...
by tadamsmar
Mon Mar 03, 2008 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peak Oil / Inflation / House Collapse Not Yet In Full Force
Replies: 3
Views: 1145

But, what about investor sentiment? :P
by tadamsmar
Mon Mar 03, 2008 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bummer
Replies: 4
Views: 1134

Bummer

by tadamsmar
Fri Feb 29, 2008 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Estate Taxes Don't Matter
Replies: 65
Views: 11632

One word

One word:

Rockefeller
by tadamsmar
Fri Feb 29, 2008 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Have you used your emergency fund?
Replies: 12
Views: 3548

Maybe I should have one

I don't have an emergency fund.

In the last 18 months we have had:

2 dental implants 10K
car repairs 8K
rental property renovations 15K (should have seen this coming)

I have about 20-25K on my equity line.
by tadamsmar
Thu Feb 28, 2008 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Ed Yardeni's "Fed Model"
Replies: 57
Views: 15495

Deny his record

If we can all agree that Swedroe has given good and valuable advice here [the "Fed Model" post must have struck an uncharacteristic nerve], we should also agree that Yardeni's predictions have been nothing less then brilliant, the overreaction to Y2K notwithstanding. Probably he has just been lucky...
by tadamsmar
Tue Feb 26, 2008 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Problems of the "working rich"
Replies: 62
Views: 14470

Re: 1m

We are around 60 and my wife is retiring next year. I don't feel all that flush with cash. 1m to 10m is a big range, and it's a very bottom heavy distribution, most nearer 1m. {tongue firmly in cheek} Apparently, you aren't a very good consumer! I think the reason a lot of people end up with this t...
by tadamsmar
Tue Feb 26, 2008 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Problems of the "working rich"
Replies: 62
Views: 14470

1m

It seems many "working rich", that is, people with a net worth of $1m - $10m, are worried about maintaining their current financial status: Well, I think a lot of people who post here probably have a household net worth of more that 1m. My household net worth is about 1.6m, but .4m is tied up in th...
by tadamsmar
Fri Feb 22, 2008 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: question about the efficient market hypothesis
Replies: 63
Views: 10949

Timing

So, does this imply that timing is OK in a no-cost situation if you remain well diversified or near the efficient frontier. Like folks that time in the Federal Thrift Savings Plan, or within a mutual fund where the changes are free? You are not as diversified as the TSM but you are not far off. Timi...
by tadamsmar
Thu Feb 07, 2008 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The next bubble
Replies: 51
Views: 11620

Ag commodities

1. Agricultural commodities. There is a day trader in my office pushing POT and other ag suppliers. It combines two other bubble risks that were mentioned: commodities and alternative energy (biofuels). 2. EM and China 3. Eventually, robotics. Robots that can build more intelligent robots, Computer ...
by tadamsmar
Mon Feb 04, 2008 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do hidden fees work in a 401(k) plan?
Replies: 12
Views: 2750

Soft dollars

I am not sure there are any 401K-specific hidden fees. The hidden fees that I know of would apply to the fund with the ticker symbol inside or outside of a 401K, soft dollars: http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/04/011404.asp These take the from of inflated transaction costs. Mutual funds do not...
by tadamsmar
Fri Feb 01, 2008 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bailing on U.S. Markets???
Replies: 32
Views: 6597

Re: Bailing on U.S. Markets???

Given the political climate and the very real likelihood of higher taxes, is anyone else considering bailing on the U.S. market and going strictly into international etf's/funds? Im extremely concerned about taxes and the resulting effect on economic growth here at home. Without turning this into a...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jan 29, 2008 4:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Philosophy Re: Wedding Costs
Replies: 41
Views: 8794

What costs?

My wife and I got married at the Justice of the Peace in Durham NC. The best man picked up the tab for ice cream for us and my new step-kids afterwards. (Kinda wish I had done it after business hours. Then the ceremony would have been in the parking garage of the courthouse where the Justice of the ...
by tadamsmar
Mon Jan 28, 2008 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did the "Fools" get religion?
Replies: 13
Views: 3591

Fools inteviewed Malkiel

Fools: Let's call this one our obligatory monkey anti-defamation question. Talking profits and primates for a second, Dr. Malkiel, you once said that a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper's financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 25, 2008 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rogue trader contributed to market crash Monday
Replies: 14
Views: 2415

Rogue trader cut rates

Bernake cancelled his schedule and huddled with the open market committee on Monday. If the panic did not cause that then what did?

They did not know about the rogue trader when they made the decision to cut.
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 25, 2008 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rogue trader contributed to market crash Monday
Replies: 14
Views: 2415

So is there any chance that the entire fed rate cut was motivated by this trader and not by a real collapse overseas? That would make a great story. Jane I have no idea whether this is an accurate assessment, but this guy thinks so.. http://www.thestreet.com/s/fed-up-with-bernanke/markets/marketfea...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 25, 2008 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rogue trader contributed to market crash Monday
Replies: 14
Views: 2415

Rogue trader contributed to market crash Monday

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/b ... 248746.ece

Over the weekend, a French bank discovered that a rogue trader was betting most of their money. They liquidated his positions on Monday. Crash.
by tadamsmar
Thu Jan 24, 2008 9:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Boomer Doom?
Replies: 11
Views: 2648

Micro boomer doom?

I'd like to hear comments on your own work place. I work in a small contracting group for the federal government. All but one or two of the key people will probably be gone in ten years. One key person is young and another has no savings. We have had two recent heart attacks in a group of eleven. Bo...
by tadamsmar
Wed Jan 23, 2008 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP Explains New Limits on Transfers
Replies: 63
Views: 14373

I would like to see a TSP X fund. This would serve to balance the excess demand from the other funds. For example, if everyone transfers from fund G to fund I, fund X would automatically sell fund I and buy fund G. Fund X could share the reduction in market impact costs with itself and the rest of ...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jan 22, 2008 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: How far down will the S&P close tomorrow?
Replies: 24
Views: 5189

3%???

That 3% option should be 2-3% to make sense overall.

Or did you mean exactly 3%? :)
by tadamsmar
Tue Jan 22, 2008 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: tomorrow going to be really ugly
Replies: 124
Views: 26442

What, Larry's predicting the markets now? How do you know that there won't be some news overnight that sends the market higher? I doubt it, buy who knows? If the overseas markets get pummeled again tonight, the Fed will probably cut the Fed Funds rate by 50 bps or more pre-market. Wow! you nailed it!
by tadamsmar
Tue Jan 22, 2008 8:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best strategy for car ownership to keep the costs down
Replies: 44
Views: 10054

We always buy new American cars and keep them 12 years and around 120k miles. At that time and mileage usually rust showed up and repairs might go to $1500/year which is then the sign for us to buy another new one. We never had big engine repair bills, therefore repair bills we do not need to consi...
by tadamsmar
Mon Jan 21, 2008 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does TSP G-fund count in bond allocation?
Replies: 10
Views: 2797

G Fund has no principle fluxuation (Taylor is mistaken on this). It's more like a money market with a higher return. But I am not sure that works either. The efficient frontiers of the L Funds are flatter because of the good risk/return characteristics of the G Fund. But I don't know of a source of ...
by tadamsmar
Sat Jan 19, 2008 4:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best strategy for car ownership to keep the costs down
Replies: 44
Views: 10054

I agree with Gekko... you could also add Honda / Acura to the list. The biggest single cost of ownership is depreciation, so if keeping costs down is the number one priority, buy used. BUT, you must take your time and be selective. Buying a 2002 Camry off of a used car lot is very risky compared to...
by tadamsmar
Sat Jan 19, 2008 4:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best strategy for car ownership to keep the costs down
Replies: 44
Views: 10054

Check the car's record

IMO, buy a new or slightly used Toyota or Lexus, get exactly what you want in terms of color/features, and drive it into the ground. Well, I based on my experience yesterday, I'd say you need to check the repair record of the year and model even for a good make. I bought a Honda a while back. I che...
by tadamsmar
Sat Jan 19, 2008 7:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best strategy for car ownership to keep the costs down
Replies: 44
Views: 10054

Best strategy for car ownership to keep the costs down

I tend to buy used cars and keep them till they die.

But I have been hit with some high repair bills lately and I am wondering if there is a better strategy?
by tadamsmar
Wed Jan 16, 2008 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Cramer on Index Funds
Replies: 9
Views: 3726

5 to 10 stocks

I find sources that say that Cramer says that 5 to 10 stocks can provide sufficient diversification. And he says you need to spend one hour per stock per week on research. That's 5 to 10 hours a week of research, but then I guess you have to also research some other stocks that you plan to buy. The ...
by tadamsmar
Wed Jan 16, 2008 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this the right "time?"
Replies: 53
Views: 19725

Pillar 11. You Rarely, If Ever, Know Something The Market Does Not. If you are worried about the coming bear market, excited about the coming bull market, fearful about the prospect of war, or concerned about the economy, the election, or indeed the state of mankind, in all probability your opinion...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jan 15, 2008 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Federal Employees - HDHP/HSA help
Replies: 13
Views: 4671

We have a GEHA HDHP and they deposit in HSA Bank.

You would have to pay low balance fees or keep a sufficient balance in your HSA Bank account, but you can transfer the fund out to another administrator, I think.

You can check all the HDHP plans available to see what administrator they use.
by tadamsmar
Tue Jan 15, 2008 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Have you funded your Roth?
Replies: 23
Views: 4789

snoopdoug1 wrote:
ElJay wrote:I still have $300 left to contribute for last year. :oops:
hehe - looks like I forgot an option!
If you are on the bubble of the income limit, then it's easier to wait till next year to fund it.
by tadamsmar
Mon Jan 14, 2008 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When to take Social Security - article in Washington Post
Replies: 21
Views: 4946

Which pot to you take it from

For people who have some retirement savings, then you can draw down the retirement savings instead of taking SS.

Each month that you delay SS you have to cover the lost benefit for that month.

You are, in effect, buying an increase in an annuity.

This annuity tends to be a good buy.
by tadamsmar
Sun Jan 13, 2008 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I contribute to my HSA?
Replies: 8
Views: 2243

I'm thinking paying for medical costs out of pocket and letting my HSA grow is the best for the long-term. If I was you I'd do the same thing. And I'm young like you. As a previous poster said, if you really really need the cash at a later date you could just submit the claim (that you had already ...
by tadamsmar
Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Bogle right?
Replies: 23
Views: 5670

that is NOT what bogle missed As I pointed out above, Bogle made mistake of comparing FUND returns, not returns of the asset classes which is in the CRSP data and clearly shows value outperforming growth.And that is true everywhere in world you look, you find the same result and even similar size p...
by tadamsmar
Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I contribute to my HSA?
Replies: 8
Views: 2243

I notice that you are maxing out everything but your HSA. But the HSA is totally tax-free. Assuming you don't max out everything, It might make more sense give the HSA a higer priority, since it allows more tax avoidance than a Roth. Also, it's withdrawls are more flexible than a Roth since you can ...
by tadamsmar
Sat Jan 12, 2008 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Bogle right?
Replies: 23
Views: 5670

That's the point!

I think many of the responses are not addressing the actual question posed. Tadamsmar asked: Did Fama and French show this? Where "this" is referring to: Fama and French showed that low p/e, low market-to-book stocks had provided higher returns than high p/e, high market-to-book stocks That's exact...
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 11, 2008 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Bogle right?
Replies: 23
Views: 5670

Is Bogle wrong?

I the above quoted statement by Bogle in error?
by tadamsmar
Fri Jan 11, 2008 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Bogle right?
Replies: 23
Views: 5670

Is Bogle right?

"Despite all the cycles, the record for the past 63 years shows these annual rates of return: Growth, +11.8%; Value, +11.9%. Now to be sure, some brilliant academics disagree with my conclusion. In their seminal 1992 paper, Professors Fama and French showed that low p/e, low market-to-book stocks ha...
by tadamsmar
Thu Jan 10, 2008 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not logical to believe in Efficient Mkts + S&D?
Replies: 40
Views: 6058

More way to deal with it

The problem with Norstad's argument is historical data shows that TSM is not on the efficient frontier (i.e., does not offer the highest risk-adjusted returns) where risk is defined by volatility. There are three ways to deal with this. 1) Ignore the historical data. Some people claim like to claim...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jan 08, 2008 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [poll] your 2007 rate of return
Replies: 76
Views: 19565

Opps, I put in my real return. I think you want nominal return.

One extra is in the 0-2 range
by tadamsmar
Tue Jan 08, 2008 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Opportunistic Rebalancing: A New Paradigm
Replies: 69
Views: 21311

WLIB Test

This seems to pass the WLIB Test: If this idea is true, could you build the World's Largest Investment Bank using it? Yep, if there is a pattern of reversal in the market that allows one to profit from opportunistic rebalancing, then apply leverage and you can build the WLIB. Assuming the return is ...
by tadamsmar
Tue Jan 08, 2008 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Federal Retiree needs help with re-allocation
Replies: 7
Views: 1662

Good Plan

I think you have got a good plan. Get stocks in the taxable account and mirror the L Fund. The L Fund is the only efficient frontier calculation that I know of that included the unique G Fund, so its a good resource. I suppose you might find stock funds that are designed for taxable accounts are bet...
by tadamsmar
Mon Jan 07, 2008 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: HSA: spend it or save it?
Replies: 27
Views: 7473

Re: thanks

Allan & Al, thanks for your replies. Actually I already did a great deal of research on this, & as I said, didn't find an explicit statement one way or another. I thought perhaps I'd missed it in my reading, but apparently not. Oh well. You gotta love the irs! :lol: Thanks anyway!!! :D Jan I can't ...
by tadamsmar
Sun Jan 06, 2008 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: HSA: spend it or save it?
Replies: 27
Views: 7473

Re: Undecided as well

I was originally going to fund our HSA instead of our IRAs because it's more flexible, but now I'm not sure. Jim: "I've been wrestling with the same question myself. I just opened a pair of Patelco HSAs for DW and I. I think we're going to let the money grow, but I will save our medical receipts so...