Search found 7704 matches

by tadamsmar
Fri May 02, 2008 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Challenge for Passive Investors
Replies: 147
Views: 28808

Re: Challenge for Passive Investors

I keep reading a lot of articles about lazy portfolios and index investing. However I am still not convinced that indexes cannot be beaten. I think it is against the human spirit accepting you cannot beat an index. I did a lot of research about actively managed funds here is the list as per asset c...
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 30, 2008 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How exactly do you make money on an index fund?
Replies: 19
Views: 4115

Hi Tad - Stock growth is not precisely the same as economic growth, tho one is dependent on the other I think. Which on which, I'm not sure. Interest rates are the most important factor in where the stock market goes, so I'm told. Rates certainly affect economic (capital) growth too. Guess that's w...
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 30, 2008 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How exactly do you make money on an index fund?
Replies: 19
Views: 4115

I like it - get a job. But seriously, you make money buying and holding stock funds like TSM by the overall growth of the economy. Performance is the sum of at least two curves, one the short-term bouncing that you mention plus the underlying monotonic (always up) curve of a growing economy. We got...
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are there any good 401Ks?
Replies: 28
Views: 5092

Re: Are there any good 401Ks?

Does anyone have a 401K that they like? One with low fees? One with good investment options? How about good 401Ks for smaller firms? I think you meant to ask "are there any good 401ks I can set up myself for a small business." It doesn't really matter if Microsoft or Google or somebody has a good 4...
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 30, 2008 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How exactly do you make money on an index fund?
Replies: 19
Views: 4115

Re: How exactly do you make money on an index fund?

I looked around and I haven't been able to find a straight answer. But I'm assuming index funds, such as VTIVX (Vanguard Target Retirement) are like stock shares, correct? If so, how does one make money on these? Looking at historical prices, it seems to have only gone up a handful of dollars since...
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 30, 2008 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are there any good 401Ks?
Replies: 28
Views: 5092

Are there any good 401Ks?

Does anyone have a 401K that they like?

One with low fees?

One with good investment options?

How about good 401Ks for smaller firms?
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 30, 2008 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HSA no brainer?
Replies: 37
Views: 9391

My wife and I have had HSAs at HSA Bank. We are covered by the HDHP of my wife's employer. The employer makes monthly deposits in HSA Bank, so my wife must have an HSA there. As far as I know, that is the only situation that ties you to a particular HSA provider. But I could have set up my HSA at a ...
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 30, 2008 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HSA no brainer?
Replies: 37
Views: 9391

tax

If I understand correctly, both Self Directed and alancoleman have stated that HSA withdrawals for medical expenses are (or might be) taxable.

HSA withdrawals for qualified expenses incurred after you set up your HDHP are not taxable.[/u]
by tadamsmar
Tue Apr 29, 2008 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HSA no brainer?
Replies: 37
Views: 9391

:shock: thats one long answer... thanks so much Anybody else out here that basically uses their HSA as a pseudo IRA? Are the fllowing correct ? 1) I put $2K in my HSA in 2008... I never touch this and let it ride the market until I turn 65 in the year 2035.... at this point I can take out the money...
by tadamsmar
Tue Apr 29, 2008 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Save a Marriage! Advice On Diversification
Replies: 45
Views: 7435

As far as our current and future investments, yes, I direct all of that, she is completely hands off. I have access to her 401k account and monitor it regularly. I pull our Credit Reports twice a year and review it in detail. At the end of each month we go over our budget vs spending together (usin...
by tadamsmar
Tue Apr 29, 2008 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Save a Marriage! Advice On Diversification
Replies: 45
Views: 7435

Tad - yeah, I noticed no one wanted to answer the advisor question! :D No big deal, don't think I am going to waste the time, money and effort on it now. As far as our current and future investments, yes, I direct all of that, she is completely hands off. I have access to her 401k account and monit...
by tadamsmar
Tue Apr 29, 2008 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Save a Marriage! Advice On Diversification
Replies: 45
Views: 7435

Last follow-up question: I think she may be willing to make some adjustments to her holdings if it came from a professional (ie: not me). Any suggestions on how to find a good fee-only advisor? I could search the CFP site, but just wanted to see if anyone has any specific advice or experience. Than...
by tadamsmar
Tue Apr 29, 2008 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do capital gains/losses work on a 401k?
Replies: 9
Views: 4586

Like income tax.

All 401K gains, interest, dividends, and original contributions are taxed as income when you make withdrawals during retirement. If you make an $1000 withdrawal, you will have to pay federal income tax on the withdrawal just as you would if you earned the $1000 in the same tax year. (But you don't h...
by tadamsmar
Tue Apr 29, 2008 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: OPEC President: Dollar reason for oil prices
Replies: 54
Views: 8789

No OPEC nation has a physical ability to increase oil production in the short term. In the long run, who knows? Tales of OPEC's monopoly power are much exaggerated. Valuethinker, In general, I think your posts are the best on this thread, and I don't take issue with your other statements. But, in a...
by tadamsmar
Tue Apr 29, 2008 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: OPEC President: Dollar reason for oil prices
Replies: 54
Views: 8789

There are supply/demand issues but there is also rising prices due to the fall in the dollar. Oil prices have gone up about 313% since 2000 in Euros and 514% in Dollars. The spread is directly due to the fall in the dollar. Also we get a lot of our oil imports from Mexico and Canada (and others) wh...
by tadamsmar
Tue Apr 29, 2008 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: OPEC President: Dollar reason for oil prices
Replies: 54
Views: 8789

Speculation

What's wrong with speculation, anyway?

Speculation is when you buy a stock hoping it will go up, right?

I don't think speculation is really a useful explanation of anything.

Speculation on oil futures is just natural. The interesting thing is what causes the speculation.
by tadamsmar
Mon Apr 28, 2008 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: OPEC President: Dollar reason for oil prices
Replies: 54
Views: 8789

Re: OPEC President: Dollar reason for oil prices

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-oil-opec-president.html?_r=1&oref=slogin "Each time the dollar falls one percent, the price of the barrel rises by $4, and of course vice versa," he was quoted as saying in brief remarks to journalists on Sunday. He added that: "If this (the dollar) ...
by tadamsmar
Mon Apr 28, 2008 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: OPEC President: Dollar reason for oil prices
Replies: 54
Views: 8789

CAUSE AND EFFECT?

daryll40 wrote:Maybe because a 10% drop in the dollar caused oil to GO UP by that amount (give or take, more or less).
Simple math says it should go up about 11%. So, what is the basis for attributing a 40% price rise to the fact the dollar dropped 10%?

What is the cause and effect explanation?
by tadamsmar
Mon Apr 28, 2008 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: OPEC President: Dollar reason for oil prices
Replies: 54
Views: 8789

Re: OPEC President: Dollar reason for oil prices

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-oil-opec-president.html?_r=1&oref=slogin "Each time the dollar falls one percent, the price of the barrel rises by $4, and of course vice versa," he was quoted as saying in brief remarks to journalists on Sunday. He added that: "If this (the dollar) ...
by tadamsmar
Mon Apr 28, 2008 7:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stimulus Phaseout Details (Better Than I Thought)
Replies: 1
Views: 802

Re: Stimulus Phaseout Details (Better Than I Thought)

tadamsmar wrote:I guessed the phaseout would be 150-160K. But its 5% for every 1K over 150 up to 174.

http://www.irs.gov/irs/article/0,,id=177937,00.html
The reduction is 5% of AGI above 150.
by tadamsmar
Mon Apr 28, 2008 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stimulus Phaseout Details (Better Than I Thought)
Replies: 1
Views: 802

Stimulus Phaseout Details (Better Than I Thought)

I guessed the phaseout would be 150-160K. But its 5% for every 1K over 150 up to 174.

http://www.irs.gov/irs/article/0,,id=177937,00.html
by tadamsmar
Fri Apr 25, 2008 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ...
Replies: 24
Views: 4034

Re: Private information

There are studies of experimental markets that show that the markets detect trading on private information as if it was public. In these experiments, some traders were given private information about future prices, and the market players as a whole seemed to quickly price in the information. Unfort...
by tadamsmar
Fri Apr 25, 2008 7:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ...
Replies: 24
Views: 4034

Private information

I find it kinda hard to take an article seriously when the author apparently thinks "skewered" means "skewed". But... There are studies of experimental markets that show that the markets detect trading on private information as if it was public. In these experiments, some traders were given private ...
by tadamsmar
Thu Apr 24, 2008 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ...
Replies: 24
Views: 4034

Skewered

Questions the writer left unanswered:

How long are the stock prices marinated in the dark pools of liquidity?

Does skewering share prices tend to skew share prices?
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 23, 2008 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do Bogleheads decide when to reduce equity exposure?
Replies: 37
Views: 7788

AA Schedule

IMO, A true Diehard commits to a asset alloction (AA) schedule , not just an AA. I use the Life-Cycle Investing Plan in Malkiel's recent editions of A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Your age in bonds is a another less detailed plan (or more detailed in time, less in allocation specifics) Or you can u...
by tadamsmar
Fri Apr 18, 2008 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: HSA redux
Replies: 7
Views: 1823

Thats what I am screwing up. I do not do my taxes, I pay the accountant to do them. I forgot that the HSA is taken off the top of my w2 number. So it is pretax money, even though I pay it out of my aftertax paycheck. Thanks. Ok, so the 5k is pretax. 1)So if I put in 5k in 2007, and have 20K in 2040...
by tadamsmar
Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealth Reversion to Mean, Excess Leverage, and EMH
Replies: 43
Views: 6292

... I find price uncertainty and random walks pretty convincing ... Me too. I just have trouble accepting that this is "because" markets efficiently process all available information. And to me, the EMH descends dangerously close to a tautology ... why would a random, "bad," price be the "efficient...
by tadamsmar
Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealth Reversion to Mean, Excess Leverage, and EMH
Replies: 43
Views: 6292

Maybe I'm just hung up on the "because" of the whole thing. I find price uncertainty and random walks pretty convincing ... I just have trouble accepting that this is "because" markets efficiently process all available information. And to me, the EMH descends dangerously close to a tautology ... wh...
by tadamsmar
Thu Apr 17, 2008 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealth Reversion to Mean, Excess Leverage, and EMH
Replies: 43
Views: 6292

Maybe I'm just hung up on the "because" of the whole thing. I find price uncertainty and random walks pretty convincing ... I just have trouble accepting that this is "because" markets efficiently process all available information. And to me, the EMH descends dangerously close to a tautology ... wh...
by tadamsmar
Thu Apr 17, 2008 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealth Reversion to Mean, Excess Leverage, and EMH
Replies: 43
Views: 6292

The "did you short" is not a fair converse argument. The fair converse of the EMH might be uncertainty and randomness . Going long on Ballard might have been a stupid bet, but as the 70 or whatever year old quote goes, the market can remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent. That Keynes ...
by tadamsmar
Thu Apr 17, 2008 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealth Reversion to Mean, Excess Leverage, and EMH
Replies: 43
Views: 6292

Anybody know the Ballard Power Systems cycle? http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BLDP&t=my They were a company that was widely perceived to have a handle on hydrogen fuel cell car technology. I'd say (with my own biases) that the scientifically informed were skeptical, but there was nonetheless that b...
by tadamsmar
Thu Apr 17, 2008 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealth Reversion to Mean, Excess Leverage, and EMH
Replies: 43
Views: 6292

Re: Gibersih

All the EMH implies is that the markets incorporate information efficiency. It does not mean that new information can't move a market big and fast. I agree with almost all of your summary. (I think it's important to say that before I disagree with a little bit of it.) The argument by Robert J. Shil...
by tadamsmar
Thu Apr 17, 2008 8:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: downsides to being completely 100% debt free?
Replies: 65
Views: 23759

Ditto

Credit card advantages (some already mentioned): 1. Cash back / reward cards available for free. This is free money. 2. Buyer protection = essentially free insurance on all sorts of things from auto rentals to outright fraud. 3. Extended warranty. My AmEx extends a one year guarantee to five years....
by tadamsmar
Thu Apr 17, 2008 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealth Reversion to Mean, Excess Leverage, and EMH
Replies: 43
Views: 6292

Re: Gibersih

The EMH implies absolutely nothing about the level if risk of any investment. quote] Maybe the EMH doesn't, but the way people apply it does, IMO. I think people have broadened the theory to the point that they underprice risks. Can't be broadened to do that. I think that's not a good analysis of t...
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 16, 2008 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealth Reversion to Mean, Excess Leverage, and EMH
Replies: 43
Views: 6292

At a glance, the Kelly Criterion takes as an input "odds." Mandelbrot, Taleb, and others argue that odds aren't known. We are dealing with "uncertainty" rather than "risk." As I understand it (as Taleb explained it to me :)), LTCM would have been fine if the world had the "odds" they assumed. Well,...
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 16, 2008 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealth Reversion to Mean, Excess Leverage, and EMH
Replies: 43
Views: 6292

Re: Gibersih

The EMH implies absolutely nothing about the level if risk of any investment. quote] Maybe the EMH doesn't, but the way people apply it does, IMO. I think people have broadened the theory to the point that they underprice risks. Can't be broadened to do that. I think that's not a good analysis of t...
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 16, 2008 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealth Reversion to Mean, Excess Leverage, and EMH
Replies: 43
Views: 6292

Gibersih

I skimmed the article. It's giberish.

The EMH implies absolutely nothing about the level if risk of any investment. The article was obviously written by a con man looking for somebody new to fleece.
by tadamsmar
Thu Apr 03, 2008 10:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Good NPR report on retirement fund investing
Replies: 6
Views: 2716

Agreed. I heard the report too. It almost sounded like a commercial for Vanguard.... All very Diehard. But what does anyone think about his suggestion in the last paragraph, to take money 'out' of the portfolio into short term TIPS or MM funds as one approaches retirement? That is, without changing...
by tadamsmar
Thu Apr 03, 2008 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jonathan Clements leaving the "Wall Street Journal.
Replies: 59
Views: 19738

The 'Dark Side' got one of our allies. After spending years at the WSJ telling people about index funds and keeping costs low, I don't know how he will be happy on the product pushing 'sell-side' of the business. "I have no intention of sacrificing the principles I've spent the last two decades adv...
by tadamsmar
Thu Apr 03, 2008 6:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Good NPR report on retirement fund investing
Replies: 6
Views: 2716

Good NPR report on retirement fund investing

This is one of the few broadcast reports I have every heard that did not have any glaring errors:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/stor ... Id=6203264
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 02, 2008 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to start investing seriously -- need advice.
Replies: 9
Views: 2055

payoff terms are no penalty, so I could pay it off -- but I have to be able to earn better than prime - .4% right? I am not exactly sure what you are asking. Paying off the HELOC is a bad move if the rate of a long-term risk-free investment is greater that prime - .4%. Otherwise, it is arguably a g...
by tadamsmar
Tue Apr 01, 2008 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to start investing seriously -- need advice.
Replies: 9
Views: 2055

Pay off the HELOC with some of that cash in taxable?

(Depending on the payoff terms)
by tadamsmar
Mon Mar 31, 2008 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: getting close to running out of tax-sheltered space... help!
Replies: 10
Views: 2512

I don't have any taxable, but, consider:

IBONDs

A Health Savings Account (assuming it works for your situation) to have more tax-sheltered savings.

BTW, you have a bad will or no will? Since you have kids, get a good will ASAP.
by tadamsmar
Sat Mar 29, 2008 9:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are we vulnerable to hackers?
Replies: 9
Views: 2222

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/computersecurity/2005-11-02-cybercrime-online-accounts_x.htm Vanguard does have extra safeguards like the security image and those security questions. If an account is accessible by password only from any computer, then that seems to be the least secure. The main pr...
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 28, 2008 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting idea to hedge inflation... Oil ETF!
Replies: 60
Views: 10986

Re: Interesting idea to hedge inflation... Oil ETF!

What if I know that I am going to spend 5% of my living expenses in oil in my retirement. Either for fuel or heating oil or whatever. Should I think consider putting 5% into an Oil ETF like DBO? This way even if oil prices skyrocket, I will have the correct portion of it also rising in my portfolio...
by tadamsmar
Thu Mar 27, 2008 2:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The reality of a progressive future?
Replies: 39
Views: 7096

Working yourself to death is more socially acceptable, no? Do you mean you support perfectly able-bodied people not working just cause they don't feel like it? What are you implying here? I notice that you neglected to mention that you were planning to not sign up for SS benefits. Surely an oversig...
by tadamsmar
Thu Mar 27, 2008 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The reality of a progressive future?
Replies: 39
Views: 7096

Working yourself to death

Eventually you'll reach a point where the less educated or motivated levels of society don't have much to do other than scrubbing floors Wouldn't the undesirable existence of scrubbing floors motivate that person to attain higher knowledge / skills? As long as there is a means for people to advance...
by tadamsmar
Thu Mar 27, 2008 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The reality of a progressive future?
Replies: 39
Views: 7096

disability

The ironic thing is that most "independent" folks on this forum are counting on government welfare (e.g. Social Security/Medicare) in their older years. As this thread demonstrates, condescension about taxpayer assistance does indeed seem to work best when it's limited to "what other people get". T...
by tadamsmar
Thu Mar 27, 2008 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The reality of a progressive future?
Replies: 39
Views: 7096

The Future

Some think we will design a robot that will be able to design a smarter robot by about 2030. This will cause a economic and social revolution thats come to be called the singularity. The idea was originally put forward by a science fiction (SF) writer called Verner Vinge. He took note of the fact th...
by tadamsmar
Wed Mar 26, 2008 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A good read
Replies: 8
Views: 1722

Of course, many more a dollar is stolen "legally" by financial advisors selling variable annuities inside of tax-deferred accounts. And many other financial enginering schemes that continue to perpetuate under the watchful eye of the SEC. Not condoning the actions - but there are bigger fish to fry...