Search found 7723 matches

by tadamsmar
Sun Apr 15, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 156
Views: 17813

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

This is from January, but I searched and did not find a post on it: https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadepfau/2018/01/16/the-trinity-study-and-portfolio-success-rates-updated-to-2018/#6665ac7e6860 Wade Pfau updated the Trinity Study to include data thru 2017. He also includes failure rates up to 40 yea...
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 14, 2018 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 156
Views: 17813

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

longinvest wrote:
Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:53 pm

What?!!! Is there an assumption, in that statement, that the retiree had a 100% stock portfolio and no Social Security, no pension, and no inflation-indexed SPIA?
Yeah, you nailed me. Forgot about Social Security. I used 80% stocks since that was in the table.
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 156
Views: 17813

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

But I suspect that a good many Bogleheads can't save enough to where the math does not matter. That's why, with the generous help and suggestions of other Bogleheads, we've developed the easy-to-use variable-percentage withdrawal (VPW) method and table , and I discussed how it could be used within ...
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 156
Views: 17813

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

Tadamsmar, So what happened? We simply withdrew what we needed and kept an eye on our portfolio balance. Most years our balance went up and we spent the money on vacations, luxuries and charity. When our balance went down we tightened our belt and economized. Best wishes. Taylor Great! None of the ...
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 14, 2018 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 156
Views: 17813

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

So what happened? We simply withdrew what we needed and kept an eye on our portfolio balance. Most years our balance went up and we spent the money on vacations, luxuries and charity. When our balance went down we tightened our belt and economized. Best wishes. Taylor Great! None of the mathematics...
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 156
Views: 17813

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

This study extended out to 40 years seems to indicate that Age in Bonds might be too conservative.

AA with more than 25% stock do better at the 3% withdrawal rate.

But perhaps Age in Bonds would still be 100% safe at 40 years, not sure.
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 156
Views: 17813

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

A disservice is done every time the Trinity study is equated to a retirement income withdrawal strategy. As the latter, it would have to be the worst method. The thought of setting a withdrawal rate, then never looking again at actual outcome, portfolio balance, inflation, etc. is reckless. True, i...
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?
Replies: 158
Views: 11843

Re: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?

A variable withdrawal amount is a great idea. You still have to choose a portfolio size at retirement. We totally agree. But, in that case, it would be important to state this when presenting SWR literature, as to avoid misleading new members into believing that it's an actual withdrawal method. Th...
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?
Replies: 158
Views: 11843

Re: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?

SWR* again?! :oops: * Safe Withdrawal Rate method, also called Constant-Dollar Withdrawal method. It consists of choosing a withdrawal amount at retirement, then increasing this withdrawal amount with inflation every year, regardless of market returns, when using a portfolio of fluctuating assets (...
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 156
Views: 17813

Trinity Study updated to 2018

This is from January, but I searched and did not find a post on it: https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadepfau/2018/01/16/the-trinity-study-and-portfolio-success-rates-updated-to-2018/#6665ac7e6860 Wade Pfau updated the Trinity Study to include data thru 2017. He also includes failure rates up to 40 year...
by tadamsmar
Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?
Replies: 158
Views: 11843

Re: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Historical_and_expected_returns Beginner here trying to figure out how much I need for retirement and I'm confused. Historical real returns are something like 7% on equities and 2.5% on bonds and yet everybody seems to expect closer to 2-4% real on equities and 0-2% ...
by tadamsmar
Thu Apr 12, 2018 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?
Replies: 158
Views: 11843

Re: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Historical_and_expected_returns Beginner here trying to figure out how much I need for retirement and I'm confused. Historical real returns are something like 7% on equities and 2.5% on bonds and yet everybody seems to expect closer to 2-4% real on equities and 0-2% ...
by tadamsmar
Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years
Replies: 111
Views: 16267

Re: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years

Isn't this all depressing? Wouldn't it be nice if -- in response to these sorts of questions -- instead of just playing to the masses and talking about a prediction in a cowardly way (70%? That sounds like making a prediction that basically predicts nothing) we had the head of a major financial com...
by tadamsmar
Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years
Replies: 111
Views: 16267

Re: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years

I don't know about you guys, but I'm actually hoping for a big correction. It's the best time to buy! The correction happened Feb 8, so the prediction came true then. Is there something called a big correction? I that different from a bear market? If we continued to a 20% decline from the high at t...
by tadamsmar
Tue Apr 10, 2018 12:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Selling gold coins
Replies: 5
Views: 547

Re: Selling gold coins

You can sell them at AMPEX.COM [it's APMEX.COM - moderator prudent] Or you can look on Craig's list or other places to make a private sale, splitting the difference between the sellers and buyers price at AMPEC. I did this and met the buyer at a local coffee shop (a public place). The buyer measured...
by tadamsmar
Mon Apr 09, 2018 6:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Parents have zero savings. What can I do?
Replies: 168
Views: 17016

Re: Parents have zero savings. What can I do?

I think that one thing to avoid is misplaced charity that amounts to you and your wife personally paying down the National Debt. You have not provided much in terms of specifics, but I would try to avoid making payments that simply amount to replacing Medicaid and other government funds with your f...
by tadamsmar
Mon Apr 09, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Parents have zero savings. What can I do?
Replies: 168
Views: 17016

Re: Parents have zero savings. What can I do?

I think that one thing to avoid is misplaced charity that amounts to you and your wife personally paying down the National Debt. You have not provided much in terms of specifics, but I would try to avoid making payments that simply amount to replacing Medicaid and other government funds with your fu...
by tadamsmar
Mon Apr 09, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Parents have zero savings. What can I do?
Replies: 168
Views: 17016

Re: Parents have zero savings. What can I do?

And if not, how can I make sure that I mitigate our exposure to their financial problems, which I believe will be substantial? What exposure? I don't think you have any financial exposure. What are you talking about? If I am wrong, I would certainly like to know. Are you talking about pressure to p...
by tadamsmar
Sun Apr 08, 2018 8:41 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Too much Bogleheads.org?
Replies: 90
Views: 14661

Re: Too much Bogleheads.org?

I joined this site a few months back and am blown away with the amount of knowledge and support of this site. Between this site and the recommended books I have learned a tremendous amount and have become a more savvy and attentive investor. That being said, I find myself constantly thinking about ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we in bear territory?
Replies: 49
Views: 6714

Re: Are we in bear territory?

How close are we to a 20 point drop? And what range of months does it require that 20 point drop to be within? Where are we at now? Thanks. We are not in bear territory according to the definitions that I find. It's a 20% drop, not a 20 point drop. There is no "within" time-period. The definitions ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 12316

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

People like JL Collins argue that they don't need an international allocation because the companies in US total stock market already do business internationally. Is this actually a valid argument? I feel like this is different from investing in non-American companies. Does this line of thinking hav...
by tadamsmar
Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Savannah or Charleston?
Replies: 49
Views: 4707

Re: Savannah or Charleston?

In Atlanta they ask "What do you do for a living?", in Macon they ask "What church do you go to?", in Augusta they ask "What's your grandmother's maiden name?", in Savannah they ask "What would you like to drink?".
by tadamsmar
Tue Mar 27, 2018 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Savannah or Charleston?
Replies: 49
Views: 4707

Re: Savannah or Charleston?

I recommend the walking tour booklet for Charleston: http://www.talkofthetowne.com/walk.html Or a Kindle version: https://www.amazon.com/Charleston-South-Carolina-Walking-Guidebook-ebook/dp/B008AY9BRG I think it's also available in Charleston at the Historical Society Store. (Note that there are no ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does the value of my home matter?
Replies: 21
Views: 3096

Re: Does the value of my home matter?

Not moving can be an expensive option in some long-term care scenarios down the road perhaps.
by tadamsmar
Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does the value of my home matter?
Replies: 21
Views: 3096

Re: Does the value of my home matter?

You have a "value equals current or future market price" mindset. When I think about the "value" my home, I think about the possible renovations that might be needed to make it more livable in old age. Like a downstairs laundry room. Your home can end up, in some scenarios, adding to or subtracting ...
by tadamsmar
Mon Mar 19, 2018 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP bonds?
Replies: 92
Views: 7848

Re: TSP bonds?

I think F looks worse in isolation. The analysts who create the L Fund don't do that, so they have a relatively small allocation to F. One interesting idea that has been discussed here is to pair G with something other that F, like a corporate bond fund. Buying treasuries in both F and G looks less ...
by tadamsmar
Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP bonds?
Replies: 92
Views: 7848

Re: TSP bonds?

Take a look at the L Fund allocations. The bond holdings are mostly in the G Fund. The L Fund allocations are set by experts. The L Fund gives you a good idea of how to allocate to bonds, if you want to allocate to bonds. Whether you should lower risk by allocating to to bond depends on your situati...
by tadamsmar
Thu Mar 08, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 19837

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

If we were in a period where we were moving toward stagflation (toward recession and increasing inflation), cash (short-term TIPs) would be king. Cash in a portfolio has a purpose, but perhaps it's not that useful.
by tadamsmar
Thu Mar 08, 2018 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 19837

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

Is cash an investment? IMO, it is not. The goal of an “investment” is achieve a real rate of return over time. Cash investments do not do this, and are not priced to do it. Cash is (or should) be risk free, and that should mean it keeps up with inflation before tax. This doesn’t always happen becau...
by tadamsmar
Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 19837

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

Is cash an investment? IMO, it is not. The goal of an “investment” is achieve a real rate of return over time. Cash investments do not do this, and are not priced to do it. Cash is (or should) be risk free, and that should mean it keeps up with inflation before tax. This doesn’t always happen becau...
by tadamsmar
Wed Mar 07, 2018 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 19837

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

People often ask what purpose cash has in a portfolio. Cash serves two purposes; it’s either waiting to be invested or it’s waiting to be spent. Rick Ferri Are you saying that the purpose of cash in a portfolio is waiting to be spent? How can that make sense? Most people have their portfolio in tax...
by tadamsmar
Wed Mar 07, 2018 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 19837

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

Rick Ferri wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 12:26 pm
People often ask what purpose cash has in a portfolio. Cash serves two purposes; it’s either waiting to be invested or it’s waiting to be spent.

Rick Ferri
What about an emergency fund? It's not really cash waiting to be spent.
by tadamsmar
Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2018 Updated IRS Withholding Calculator Released
Replies: 32
Views: 3721

Re: 2018 Updated IRS Withholding Calculator Released

I used the second link in the OP. Being over 65 should decrease my taxes because it increases the standard deduction. Seem like a bug. That would be bad. >65 reduced taxes for me. I don't know what's going on, tadamsmar. Firefox browser here, but I'm sure the calculator has been thoroughly tested o...
by tadamsmar
Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2018 Updated IRS Withholding Calculator Released
Replies: 32
Views: 3721

Re: 2018 Updated IRS Withholding Calculator Released

Using this calculator: https://apps.irs.gov/app/withholdingcalculator/index5.jsp I think I am getting different results for the same input: Based on your responses, your anticipated income tax for 2018 is $29,379. Filing Status: joint Someone else can claim you as a dependent: no Number of jobs: 1 ...
by tadamsmar
Sun Mar 04, 2018 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2018 Updated IRS Withholding Calculator Released
Replies: 32
Views: 3721

Re: 2018 Updated IRS Withholding Calculator Released

I tried the calculator and it seems to give the wrong answer. I wanted to get a read on the total income tax on a 170,000 AGI. So I put in 170,000 a my salary, no withholding, married filing jointly. I took the standard deduction. I get 29,329 as my total tax. But my tax for 2017 on ~170,000 AGI wa...
by tadamsmar
Sun Mar 04, 2018 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2018 Updated IRS Withholding Calculator Released
Replies: 32
Views: 3721

Re: 2018 Updated IRS Withholding Calculator Released

I tried the calculator and it seems to give the wrong answer. I wanted to get a read on the total income tax on a 170,000 AGI. So I put in 170,000 a my salary, no withholding, married filing jointly. I took the standard deduction. I get 29,329 as my total tax. But my tax for 2017 on ~170,000 AGI was...
by tadamsmar
Wed Feb 28, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead contradiction, constant asset allocation is market timing
Replies: 100
Views: 9699

Re: Boglehead contradiction, constant asset allocation is market timing

My question is more geared to those using a "slice and dice" approach rather than those buying Vanguard Total World Stock ETF. The question has the same answer. The slice and dicers either believe that small and value grows faster or they have a complicated view of the best way to diversify that in...
by tadamsmar
Mon Feb 26, 2018 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Evidence that retirement account ID theft is increasing
Replies: 31
Views: 4981

Re: Evidence that retirement account ID theft is increasing

But the crime that might be most devastating – where many victims probably keep their biggest pile of money — is brokerage account takeovers. Javelin says that in 2016, such crimes accounted for only 2% of existing non card fraud. In 2017, that swelled to 7% — more the tripling in one year. Better ...
by tadamsmar
Sun Feb 25, 2018 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Evidence that retirement account ID theft is increasing
Replies: 31
Views: 4981

Re: Evidence that retirement account ID theft is increasing

So 93% of accounts are a non issue I love people that actively seek out things to worry about. Happy Friday BH! See ya Monday. Nope. The percent of all non-card financial fraud that involved retirement accounts went from 2% to 7%. So if the only two types of fraud were hotel rewards fraud and retir...
by tadamsmar
Sun Feb 25, 2018 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Evidence that retirement account ID theft is increasing
Replies: 31
Views: 4981

Re: Evidence that retirement account ID theft is increasing

I'm not sure where the 7% of non credit card fraud number comes from and I don't believe it. I think we'd be hearing a lot more about these kinds of fraud events if it was as high as this. According to the article cited in the OP, 7% number comes from the annual Javelin Strategy survey: https://www...
by tadamsmar
Sun Feb 25, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Evidence that retirement account ID theft is increasing
Replies: 31
Views: 4981

Re: Evidence that retirement account ID theft is increasing

kagantx wrote:
Sat Feb 24, 2018 11:57 am
It's true that the chance of theft may be low, but if theft happens it is completely devastating. 93% safety is nowhere near enough for such a catastrophic risk.
Actually, the theft is not devastating if it is reimbursed by the brokerage or mutual fund company.
by tadamsmar
Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I bite the bullet and invest in this market?
Replies: 86
Views: 10499

Re: Should I bite the bullet and invest in this market?

I opened an account with Vanguard with the intent of buying their mutual funds. (Namely total stock, total international, and some bond funds) I have had about $450k sitting in cash for too long and naturally have missed out on this great bull market. A few weeks ago I invested $35k in the total st...
by tadamsmar
Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Evidence that retirement account ID theft is increasing
Replies: 31
Views: 4981

Re: Evidence that retirement account ID theft is increasing

The question I have is have there been cases where the stolen funds have not been reimbursed? The only ones I have heard of involved the Federal Thrift Savings Plan (TSP). I think they use to allow online withdrawals, but that is no longer possible. As far as I know, the TSP still has a policy of n...
by tadamsmar
Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Evidence that retirement account ID theft is increasing
Replies: 31
Views: 4981

Evidence that retirement account ID theft is increasing

But the crime that might be most devastating – where many victims probably keep their biggest pile of money — is brokerage account takeovers. Javelin says that in 2016, such crimes accounted for only 2% of existing non card fraud. In 2017, that swelled to 7% — more the tripling in one year. https:/...
by tadamsmar
Tue Feb 20, 2018 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the impact of no more Roth recharacterization?
Replies: 30
Views: 3527

What's the impact of no more Roth recharacterization?

Has anyone tried to quantify the impact of this tax law change which came into effect on Dec 31, 2017 for Roth conversions after that date.

I think Roth conversions have been kind of borderline worthwhile for some of us anyway.
by tadamsmar
Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many of you use the "4% rule" during retirement?
Replies: 68
Views: 10143

Re: How many of you use the "4% rule" during retirement?

To be clear, I'm referring to withdrawing 4% of your portfolio during the first year, then in the following years increasing the dollar amount according to the inflation rate. When it's mentioned as a rule of thumb for starting to answer "when can we retire?" questions, the discussion often turns t...
by tadamsmar
Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Three Fund Portfolio Excluding TSP?
Replies: 28
Views: 3271

Re: Three Fund Portfolio Excluding TSP?

If you don't mind some extra complexity, it may be worthwhile to keep most of your bonds in the TSP and mostly stocks in Roth, because you will eventually have to pay taxes on the Traditional TSP, while you won't for the Roth. Therefore, having investments with the best chance for growth in Roth an...
by tadamsmar
Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Three Fund Portfolio Excluding TSP?
Replies: 28
Views: 3271

Re: Three Fund Portfolio Excluding TSP?

If most or all of bonds are in the TSP, would you suggest a 50:50 of F:G? I’ve seen that in other threads. I use a higher percentage of G for my bond allocation (my overall bond allocation for my overall AA). I use something similar to the F:G allocations in the L funds. Those L fund allocations ar...