Search found 7618 matches

by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 23, 2017 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: food for thought
Replies: 53
Views: 5189

Re: Bitcoin: food for thought

Maybe my food for thought is Schrodinger's Cat poo. If one had bought $400 of Bitcoin in 2011 and held like a good Boglehead, what's the chances that you would have lost it in the Mt Gox thing (theft or scam or whatever)? Could be pretty high. They were doing 70% of transactions. Not sure of the per...
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 23, 2017 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: food for thought
Replies: 53
Views: 5189

Re: Bitcoin: food for thought

Back when Bitcoin was $4 each, there was nothing that would have indicated it was the next “thing”, any more than it was clear that Google or Amazon or Dell or Apple was the next “thing” when they first got started. I became aware of Bitcoin when it was around $10 each because my son was mining the...
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 23, 2017 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: food for thought
Replies: 53
Views: 5189

Re: Bitcoin: food for thought

Back when Bitcoin was $4 each, there was nothing that would have indicated it was the next “thing”, any more than it was clear that Google or Amazon or Dell or Apple was the next “thing” when they first got started. I became aware of Bitcoin when it was around $10 each because my son was mining the...
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 23, 2017 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: food for thought
Replies: 53
Views: 5189

Re: Bitcoin: food for thought

People are saying bitcoin is or is not a Ponzi scheme without saying what a Ponzi scheme is. I find it particularly awful to say it doesn't have a characteristic of a Ponzi scheme without describing said characteristic. One definition of a Ponzi scheme is: A Ponzi scheme (/ˈpɒn.zi/; also a Ponzi ga...
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 23, 2017 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: food for thought
Replies: 53
Views: 5189

Re: Bitcoin: food for thought

Many of us hold the TSM or EM or small-cap funds. Via those firms we chronically held $400 in some pretty dicey publicly traded companies while simultaneously calling Bitcoin a scam and a Ponzi scheme. Some of those investments no doubt were a total loss. The difference is that it's impossible to d...
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 23, 2017 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: food for thought
Replies: 53
Views: 5189

Re: Bitcoin: food for thought

Here's the earliest mention of bitcoin on Bogleheads that I can find: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=84400&p=1208595&hilit=bitcoin#p1208595 October 19, 2011 You didn't look very far. The very first post in that thread has links to earlier discussions Earlier discussions here:...
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 23, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: food for thought
Replies: 53
Views: 5189

Re: Bitcoin: food for thought

Many of us hold the TSM or EM or small-cap funds. Via those firms we chronically held $400 in some pretty dicey publicly traded companies while simultaneously calling Bitcoin a scam and a Ponzi scheme. Some of those investments no doubt were a total loss. The difference is that it's impossible to d...
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 23, 2017 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: food for thought
Replies: 53
Views: 5189

Bitcoin: food for thought

Here's the earliest mention of bitcoin on Bogleheads that I can find: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=84400&p=1208595&hilit=bitcoin#p1208595 October 19, 2011 The title is: Bitcoin value falls 90% since June On the thread, Bitcoin is variously called a scam and a Ponzi scheme. Y...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 22, 2017 5:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth Recharacterizations in 2018 for 2017 Tax Year?
Replies: 12
Views: 1040

Re: Roth Recharacterizations in 2018 for 2017 Tax Year?

The site owners have made an exception to their rules by allowing the main thread to exist. I appreciate what they did and intend to abide by their wishes. I hope everyone here will do the same. The bill is signed! The forum rules now allow discussion. In the long unreadable thread, Alan S. one of ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 22, 2017 4:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth conversion strategies for 2018 and beyond?
Replies: 21
Views: 3696

Re: Roth conversion strategies for 2018 and beyond?

An individual IRA may be useful for hitting a particular MAGI number. You can fund those before tax day of the next year. You can put some in a TIRA if need be to target an MAGI value. Of course, you need to have some income to put into it.
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 22, 2017 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 168
Views: 20627

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

There is a LOT of market manipulation and shady things going on and a complete all out war between Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash. It appears Roger Ver an early Bitcoin investor who supports Bitcoin Cash and may have close to a million Bitcoin knew of Coinbase adding Bitcoin Cash. He announced he was sel...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 168
Views: 20627

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

There is lots of speculation on why it crashed. I say it was because analysts said that Bitcoin's quarterly earnings outlook was bleak. :twisted: Good point. BTC is only up 195% since October 1. Seems the market had priced in several hard fork dividends but now are projecting only a few. I'd say it...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]
Replies: 886
Views: 58795

Re: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]

The tax bill has been signed.

I guess that means the end of the PM-fest and this user unfriendly thread.
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 168
Views: 20627

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

There is lots of speculation on why it crashed.

I say it was because Bitcoin's quarterly earnings outlook was bleak.

:twisted:
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 168
Views: 20627

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Lost ~1/3 today. But why? That's a huge move, which *should* be accompanied by serious volume. Any word as to what is going on? Year end profit taking for Capital Gains Tax reasons? There is a bunch of breaking news about N Korea hacking a bunch of bitcoin exchanges. At least one S Korean exchange ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 168
Views: 20627

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Can you explain its rise? Lost ~1/3 today. But why? Any word as to what is going on? There is a bunch of breaking news about N Korea hacking a bunch of bitcoin exchanges. At least one S Korean exchange filed for bankruptcy within hours of being hacked. Exchanges with inadequate security and inadequ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 168
Views: 20627

Bitcoin in Freefall

Lost ~1/3 today.
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 22, 2017 7:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]
Replies: 886
Views: 58795

Re: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]

Please note that we are merging duplicate threads here. If something looks out of place, check the post title, it may be from a merged thread. Another thing, we made an exception to our rule that laws must be enacted before they can be discussed in order to give people a chance to figure out if the...
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]
Replies: 886
Views: 58795

Re: Tax Bill Omnibus Thread

I imagine that lots of us will want to precisely estimate our taxes in advance in the future. It will be necessary with Roth recharacterization after 12/31 going away.

If you have a solo 401K then you can fund a Roth up to tax day of the next year. That allows some wiggle room.
by tadamsmar
Wed Dec 20, 2017 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it possible to recharacterize a Vg Roth this year!?
Replies: 1
Views: 191

Is it possible to recharacterize a Vg Roth this year!?

I think I may hit the MAGI limit.

I think I have to send Vanguard a paper form. Wondering how to make it happen this year. Looks like the new law will preclude it next year.
by tadamsmar
Mon Dec 18, 2017 9:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do Bogleheads save on eyeglasses?
Replies: 91
Views: 7183

Re: How do Bogleheads save on eyeglasses?

I use eyebuydirect. Never had a problem with fit.
by tadamsmar
Mon Dec 18, 2017 9:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help Me [Recover] My Bitcoin!
Replies: 93
Views: 13008

Re: Help Me Cash Out My Bitcoin!

As I understand it, this is part of the reason cryptocurrencies (or at least bitcoin) will inevitably depreciate. Depreciate? Taking a simplistic approach to supply and demand rules..supply is down (lost bitcoin) so that means demand should go up in this case. Cost will go up. Inflation/deflation i...
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 16, 2017 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: PLEASE HELP: Setting up new individual 401k
Replies: 13
Views: 879

Re: PLEASE HELP: Setting up new individual 401k

If I were you, I might set the individual 401K's at a local brick and mortar custodian, like your bank. But you may want to make sure you can roll it over to another custodian. Or, at least, phone Vanguard or other internet custodian to see if it is realistic to get it done this year. I set one up f...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Security Keys
Replies: 54
Views: 5735

Re: Vanguard Security Keys

. . . They could for example take note of how people log in, flag changes, and give those transactions particular scrutiny looking for things like pump and dump. To pump and dump, I think someone would have to convert my MF-only account to a brokerage account. That might be an unanticipated securit...
by tadamsmar
Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Security Keys
Replies: 54
Views: 5735

Re: Vanguard Security Keys

As I understand it, here is the threat that exists from Vanguard's current system of sending backup codes via SMS: Imagine I am a malicious person and I have somehow obtained the password to your Vanguard account. Maybe you use the same password at a different site (yahoo) and it was compromised. I...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 08, 2017 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 89
Views: 8208

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

I agree with most of this, but the strong version of the efficient market hypothesis cannot be correct. For if it were, it would be impossible ever to identify a bubble while it was in progress. This is clearly incorrect because quite a few people identified the NASDAQ dotcom bubble while it was in...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 08, 2017 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 89
Views: 8208

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

I agree with most of this, but the strong version of the efficient market hypothesis cannot be correct. For if it were, it would be impossible ever to identify a bubble while it was in progress. This is clearly incorrect because quite a few people identified the NASDAQ dotcom bubble while it was in...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A message from Bitcoin wallet Coinbase
Replies: 1
Views: 1007

A message from Bitcoin wallet Coinbase

I just got an email from them. "we wanted to remind customers that access to Coinbase services may become degraded or unavailable during times of significant volatility or volume. This could result in the inability to buy or sell for periods of time. Despite ongoing increases in our support capacity...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does a Boglehead ever time the market?
Replies: 65
Views: 5044

Re: Does a Boglehead ever time the market?

Bogle gave a talk entitled "Law of Gravity: Reversion to the Mean": https://www.vanguard.com/bogle_site/lib/sp19980129.html He seems to mean an reversion to average performance. Reversion to average performance is not a basis for timing the market. Nobody says "Gee, X outperformed Y in the last deca...
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 89
Views: 8208

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

It's back at it's high. It's recovered from the 10% correction of a few hours ago!
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 89
Views: 8208

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

rkhusky wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:43 pm
Isn't it only a bubble if it pops?
It might not be a bubble even if it pops. Malkiel maintains that the internet bubble was rational because it could have been justified by spawning a single Microsoft-like growth firm. The rational argument has to pop, not just the bubble.
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 89
Views: 8208

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

I can't tell from the article what that even means. Largest % run up over X period of time? Largest by market cap? Absolute or nominal dollars? I did hear on NPR I think that Bitcoin market cap is equivalent to a top 20 S&P 500 company. That would make it equivalent to companies such as AT&T, Visa,...
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 89
Views: 8208

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

My rational argument is that Bitcoin has value as a medium of exchange to circumvent the law, mainly. The price run-up is not justified on that basis.
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 89
Views: 8208

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

The price dropped +10% and started fluctuating a few hours ago after it hit $16500.
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 89
Views: 8208

Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

See the November 30 plots here: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/30/bitcoin-dwarfing-some-of-the-largest-market-bubbles-of-all-time.html Given the bitcoin run-up since Nov 30, I'd say it's now bigger than the Mississippi Company bubble by the measure used in that link. Note that the information to quant...
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I received a speeding ticket via mail from IA - should I pay it?
Replies: 72
Views: 5994

Re: I received a speeding ticket via mail from IA - should I pay it?

Iowa uses a collections agency and in rare case takes legal action:

http://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/ ... w-20150925

They were putting it on your credit report, but apparently that practice has been stopped.
by tadamsmar
Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Want to sell my Bitcoin, but when?
Replies: 90
Views: 9569

Re: Want to sell my Bitcoin, but when?

Draw them down for consumption during retirement. Or pass them to your heirs and let them get the stepped up basis. In other words, stay the course! :twisted: Or you could rebalance into another cryptocurrency and treat it as an un-taxed 1031 exchange. But I would research the heck out of that befor...
by tadamsmar
Mon Dec 04, 2017 12:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 23508

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Is there any real value behind bitcoin other than the belief that someone in the future will pay more for a coin? Will scalability challenges eventually reach a tipping point and trigger a doomsday scenario crash leaving bitcoin owners with nothing in the end? Personally I am very surprised by all ...
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 02, 2017 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 23508

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Whether or not there is value there really depends on whether you think there is value in a currency that is non-inflationary and that is easy to send around the world. I think you are making an unwarranted assumption when you say bitcoin is a currency that is non-inflationary. The fixed amount rul...
by tadamsmar
Sun Nov 26, 2017 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?
Replies: 136
Views: 10637

Re: Analysis Paralysis: Can you get to the bottom of things?

Rick Ferri once said "Investing is easy, taxes are hard."

Keep studying till you realized that you will never be able to prove that a randomly selected life cycle fund is not the best strategy.
by tadamsmar
Fri Nov 24, 2017 3:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Regrets for taking SS at 62 or waiting?
Replies: 100
Views: 10560

Re: Regrets for taking SS at 62 or waiting?

My wife took ss early. I was sort of against it, but it was her business. I had a surprise opportunity to sell a farm later on favorable terms. I regret not knowing that she could suspend ss. We are too young to know if it would have paid off, but I think it was a good strategy for us to invest in ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Regrets for taking SS at 62 or waiting?
Replies: 100
Views: 10560

Re: Regrets for taking SS at 62 or waiting?

My wife took ss early. I was sort of against it, but it was her business. I had a surprise opportunity to sell a farm later on favorable terms. I regret not knowing that she could suspend ss. We are too young to know if it would have paid off, but I think it was a good strategy for us to invest in s...
by tadamsmar
Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to weight Risk:Return for AA in Thrift G fund vs. F Fund?
Replies: 8
Views: 847

Re: How to weight Risk:Return for AA in Thrift G fund vs. F Fund?

Maybe a better rule of thumb might be that your F Fund (or equivalent) allocation should be about 6% of your overall allocation. That holds for all the L Funds plus or minus 0.6%: https://www.tsp.gov/InvestmentFunds/FundOptions/fundPerformance_L2040.html But, who know if you overweight REITS or some...
by tadamsmar
Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to weight Risk:Return for AA in Thrift G fund vs. F Fund?
Replies: 8
Views: 847

Re: How to weight Risk:Return for AA in Thrift G fund vs. F Fund?

Hello! I've been reading the posts on Thrift G fund vs. Fund fund with interest. Many folks seem to feel that the negligible risk of G fund is important. A few try to risk adjust the returns of the G fund and F fund so that a person can accurately risk adjust the asset allocation held in a portfoli...
by tadamsmar
Sat Nov 18, 2017 7:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard Voice Verification
Replies: 35
Views: 4582

Re: Vanguard Voice Verification

It's essential: when you're enrolled, you can almost always circumvent any need for a gold medallion signature guarantee. That's worth a LOT. In terms of convience, no doubt. What the security level of it (i.e. how hard would it be for some one to get through) is a little harder to figure out. Righ...
by tadamsmar
Sat Nov 18, 2017 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Current precarious equity environment for a retiree
Replies: 43
Views: 3996

Re: Current precarious equity environment for a retiree

Thanks for all the replies. I know the mantra is "This time is not different." But I guess part of my question is: Could this time be different, especially for a retiree facing sequence of returns risk? Could the next market downturn be sufficiently deep or long enough to depress the equity part of...
by tadamsmar
Sat Nov 18, 2017 5:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard Voice Verification
Replies: 35
Views: 4582

Re: Vanguard Voice Verification

Finally got to it. Got a bit of a snag with the "Call me" Web page not working properly with Google Chrome, I switched to Safari, and everything worked well (and I have a strong accent). I like the idea of voice recognition replacing stupid security questions... They don't use a second factor? A se...
by tadamsmar
Fri Nov 17, 2017 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k how to reduce or eliminate fees
Replies: 12
Views: 937

Re: 401k how to reduce or eliminate fees

If it were mine I'd probably move it to Vanguard and use low-fee index funds. I'd call Vanguard and get them to help with the move. But you might want to investigate the policies of that 401K. Some will send you a check at your address instead of doing a direct company to company rollover. That's a ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Nov 17, 2017 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Having problem with Vanguard phone access
Replies: 5
Views: 573

Re: Having problem with Vanguard phone access

Must have been a short-term outage. Things worked today.