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by tadamsmar
Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: manual car for new teen driver
Replies: 143
Views: 7314

Re: manual car for new teen driver

Read the IIHS report the graph is based on, not the graph. The side bar on page 2 says the death rate is defined as "driver deaths per million registered vehicle years, 2005-08 models during calendar years 2006-09". Additionally, the text on page 2 says "A registered year is 1 vehicle registered fo...
by tadamsmar
Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: manual car for new teen driver
Replies: 143
Views: 7314

Re: manual car for new teen driver

source: http://informedforlife.org/viewartcl.php?index=83 If you read through to the actual IIHS report used to generate the graph (http://www.iihs.org/externaldata/srdata/docs/sr4605.pdf), you find things are far more complicated than the graph makes it seem. First off, the data is ancient in mode...
by tadamsmar
Wed Dec 27, 2017 1:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: manual car for new teen driver
Replies: 143
Views: 7314

Re: manual car for new teen driver

I think we should avoid the trap of thinking that small cars are somehow "unsafe". Might there be a slight marginal bit of safety with a larger car? Sure. But any recent US vehicle is going to be "safe enough" in the grand scheme of things. Certainly better than the death trap I learned to drive in...
by tadamsmar
Wed Dec 27, 2017 1:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: manual car for new teen driver
Replies: 143
Views: 7314

Re: manual car for new teen driver

I think we should avoid the trap of thinking that small cars are somehow "unsafe". Might there be a slight marginal bit of safety with a larger car? Yep, it's marginal. The margin is a mere 500%+ http://informedforlife.org/demos/FCKeditor/UserFiles/Image/fatality%20rates%20feb%202015B.png source: h...
by tadamsmar
Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: manual car for new teen driver
Replies: 143
Views: 7314

Re: manual car for new teen driver

Search on car.com. You can limit your search to manual transmission. Then add a keyword "stability control" (in quotes). You can put some other limits on the search or just peruse the list. I saw some Jeeps and some SUVs in the list I got, limiting it to <$10,000, so you can find some fairly high c...
by tadamsmar
Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: manual car for new teen driver
Replies: 143
Views: 7314

Re: manual car for new teen driver

Search on car.com. You can limit your search to manual transmission. Then add a keyword "stability control" (in quotes). You can put some other limits on the search or just peruse the list. I saw some Jeeps and some SUVs in the list I got, limiting it to <$10,000, so you can find some fairly high cu...
by tadamsmar
Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I preserve parents’ risky portfolio? Or “disobey” them?
Replies: 74
Views: 5164

Re: Should I preserve parents’ risky portfolio? Or “disobey” them?

Do you have POA for both? Are they still competent so they could change the POA? I think the current portfolio is too risky, but you need to keep their confidence if they are still competent. I would use Vanguard Target Retirement Income Fund. If they are concerned, then you could make changes that ...
by tadamsmar
Mon Dec 25, 2017 9:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you see a meaningful change in your income with new Tax Bill?
Replies: 266
Views: 22330

Re: Do you see a meaningful change in your income with new Tax Bill?

My wife and I are retired and both have Medicare Part B. So, we are targeting a $170,000 MAGI due to the Part B income limit for low premium payments. We convert to Roths up to that MAGI. Our house is paid off so we end up with the standard deduction. On paper, that gives us a $4,800 after tax incom...
by tadamsmar
Sun Dec 24, 2017 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: food for thought
Replies: 53
Views: 4941

Re: Bitcoin: food for thought

What caused the large sell off this week? There were a couple of theories in the freefall thread. N Korea stole a bunch of bitcoins. At least one S Korea exchange filed for bankruptcy. Under the new tax law, 1031 exchanges are only allowed for real estate. The IRS is funding cyber detection of cryp...
by tadamsmar
Sun Dec 24, 2017 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: food for thought
Replies: 53
Views: 4941

Re: Bitcoin: food for thought

The Mt Gox thing hit only 7% of bitcoins. And those creditors may well get 2/3 of it back by virtue of the run up in value of bitcoins that Mt Gox's founder found on an old hard drive.

Still no credible explanation of what happened at Mt Gox.
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 23, 2017 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: food for thought
Replies: 53
Views: 4941

Re: Bitcoin: food for thought

First time I read about Bitcoin, I thought about buying $100 worth just to see what would happen. It wasn't easy to do that at the time. I thought about mining it, but it wasn't easy to do that at the time. I also don't buy lottery tickets or similar. So I did neither. Not sure when that was, but m...
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 23, 2017 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: food for thought
Replies: 53
Views: 4941

Re: Bitcoin: food for thought

I suppose Bitcoin is some sort of game (as defined in mathematical theory) played between people exchanging their money with each other through the "exchanges" or played with an "exchange" as opponent If some of the Bitcoin "disappeared" then who got the money? Could Bitcoin be made "peer to peer"?...
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 23, 2017 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: food for thought
Replies: 53
Views: 4941

Re: Bitcoin: food for thought

Maybe my food for thought is Schrodinger's Cat poo. If one had bought $400 of Bitcoin in 2011 and held like a good Boglehead, what's the chances that you would have lost it in the Mt Gox thing (theft or scam or whatever)? Could be pretty high. They were doing 70% of transactions. Not sure of the per...
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 23, 2017 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: food for thought
Replies: 53
Views: 4941

Re: Bitcoin: food for thought

Back when Bitcoin was $4 each, there was nothing that would have indicated it was the next “thing”, any more than it was clear that Google or Amazon or Dell or Apple was the next “thing” when they first got started. I became aware of Bitcoin when it was around $10 each because my son was mining the...
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 23, 2017 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: food for thought
Replies: 53
Views: 4941

Re: Bitcoin: food for thought

Back when Bitcoin was $4 each, there was nothing that would have indicated it was the next “thing”, any more than it was clear that Google or Amazon or Dell or Apple was the next “thing” when they first got started. I became aware of Bitcoin when it was around $10 each because my son was mining the...
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 23, 2017 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: food for thought
Replies: 53
Views: 4941

Re: Bitcoin: food for thought

People are saying bitcoin is or is not a Ponzi scheme without saying what a Ponzi scheme is. I find it particularly awful to say it doesn't have a characteristic of a Ponzi scheme without describing said characteristic. One definition of a Ponzi scheme is: A Ponzi scheme (/ˈpɒn.zi/; also a Ponzi ga...
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 23, 2017 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: food for thought
Replies: 53
Views: 4941

Re: Bitcoin: food for thought

Many of us hold the TSM or EM or small-cap funds. Via those firms we chronically held $400 in some pretty dicey publicly traded companies while simultaneously calling Bitcoin a scam and a Ponzi scheme. Some of those investments no doubt were a total loss. The difference is that it's impossible to d...
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 23, 2017 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: food for thought
Replies: 53
Views: 4941

Re: Bitcoin: food for thought

Here's the earliest mention of bitcoin on Bogleheads that I can find: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=84400&p=1208595&hilit=bitcoin#p1208595 October 19, 2011 You didn't look very far. The very first post in that thread has links to earlier discussions Earlier discussions here:...
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 23, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: food for thought
Replies: 53
Views: 4941

Re: Bitcoin: food for thought

Many of us hold the TSM or EM or small-cap funds. Via those firms we chronically held $400 in some pretty dicey publicly traded companies while simultaneously calling Bitcoin a scam and a Ponzi scheme. Some of those investments no doubt were a total loss. The difference is that it's impossible to d...
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 23, 2017 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: food for thought
Replies: 53
Views: 4941

Bitcoin: food for thought

Here's the earliest mention of bitcoin on Bogleheads that I can find: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=84400&p=1208595&hilit=bitcoin#p1208595 October 19, 2011 The title is: Bitcoin value falls 90% since June On the thread, Bitcoin is variously called a scam and a Ponzi scheme. Y...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 22, 2017 5:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth Recharacterizations in 2018 for 2017 Tax Year?
Replies: 12
Views: 971

Re: Roth Recharacterizations in 2018 for 2017 Tax Year?

The site owners have made an exception to their rules by allowing the main thread to exist. I appreciate what they did and intend to abide by their wishes. I hope everyone here will do the same. The bill is signed! The forum rules now allow discussion. In the long unreadable thread, Alan S. one of ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 22, 2017 4:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth conversion strategies for 2018 and beyond?
Replies: 21
Views: 3286

Re: Roth conversion strategies for 2018 and beyond?

An individual IRA may be useful for hitting a particular MAGI number. You can fund those before tax day of the next year. You can put some in a TIRA if need be to target an MAGI value. Of course, you need to have some income to put into it.
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 22, 2017 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 166
Views: 18795

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

There is a LOT of market manipulation and shady things going on and a complete all out war between Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash. It appears Roger Ver an early Bitcoin investor who supports Bitcoin Cash and may have close to a million Bitcoin knew of Coinbase adding Bitcoin Cash. He announced he was sel...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 166
Views: 18795

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

There is lots of speculation on why it crashed. I say it was because analysts said that Bitcoin's quarterly earnings outlook was bleak. :twisted: Good point. BTC is only up 195% since October 1. Seems the market had priced in several hard fork dividends but now are projecting only a few. I'd say it...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]
Replies: 886
Views: 54092

Re: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]

The tax bill has been signed.

I guess that means the end of the PM-fest and this user unfriendly thread.
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 166
Views: 18795

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

There is lots of speculation on why it crashed.

I say it was because Bitcoin's quarterly earnings outlook was bleak.

:twisted:
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 166
Views: 18795

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Lost ~1/3 today. But why? That's a huge move, which *should* be accompanied by serious volume. Any word as to what is going on? Year end profit taking for Capital Gains Tax reasons? There is a bunch of breaking news about N Korea hacking a bunch of bitcoin exchanges. At least one S Korean exchange ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 166
Views: 18795

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Can you explain its rise? Lost ~1/3 today. But why? Any word as to what is going on? There is a bunch of breaking news about N Korea hacking a bunch of bitcoin exchanges. At least one S Korean exchange filed for bankruptcy within hours of being hacked. Exchanges with inadequate security and inadequ...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 166
Views: 18795

Bitcoin in Freefall

Lost ~1/3 today.
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 22, 2017 7:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]
Replies: 886
Views: 54092

Re: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]

Please note that we are merging duplicate threads here. If something looks out of place, check the post title, it may be from a merged thread. Another thing, we made an exception to our rule that laws must be enacted before they can be discussed in order to give people a chance to figure out if the...
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]
Replies: 886
Views: 54092

Re: Tax Bill Omnibus Thread

I imagine that lots of us will want to precisely estimate our taxes in advance in the future. It will be necessary with Roth recharacterization after 12/31 going away.

If you have a solo 401K then you can fund a Roth up to tax day of the next year. That allows some wiggle room.
by tadamsmar
Wed Dec 20, 2017 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it possible to recharacterize a Vg Roth this year!?
Replies: 1
Views: 176

Is it possible to recharacterize a Vg Roth this year!?

I think I may hit the MAGI limit.

I think I have to send Vanguard a paper form. Wondering how to make it happen this year. Looks like the new law will preclude it next year.
by tadamsmar
Mon Dec 18, 2017 9:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do Bogleheads save on eyeglasses?
Replies: 91
Views: 6590

Re: How do Bogleheads save on eyeglasses?

I use eyebuydirect. Never had a problem with fit.
by tadamsmar
Mon Dec 18, 2017 9:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help Me [Recover] My Bitcoin!
Replies: 93
Views: 12571

Re: Help Me Cash Out My Bitcoin!

As I understand it, this is part of the reason cryptocurrencies (or at least bitcoin) will inevitably depreciate. Depreciate? Taking a simplistic approach to supply and demand rules..supply is down (lost bitcoin) so that means demand should go up in this case. Cost will go up. Inflation/deflation i...
by tadamsmar
Sat Dec 16, 2017 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: PLEASE HELP: Setting up new individual 401k
Replies: 13
Views: 738

Re: PLEASE HELP: Setting up new individual 401k

If I were you, I might set the individual 401K's at a local brick and mortar custodian, like your bank. But you may want to make sure you can roll it over to another custodian. Or, at least, phone Vanguard or other internet custodian to see if it is realistic to get it done this year. I set one up f...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Security Keys
Replies: 54
Views: 5269

Re: Vanguard Security Keys

. . . They could for example take note of how people log in, flag changes, and give those transactions particular scrutiny looking for things like pump and dump. To pump and dump, I think someone would have to convert my MF-only account to a brokerage account. That might be an unanticipated securit...
by tadamsmar
Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Security Keys
Replies: 54
Views: 5269

Re: Vanguard Security Keys

As I understand it, here is the threat that exists from Vanguard's current system of sending backup codes via SMS: Imagine I am a malicious person and I have somehow obtained the password to your Vanguard account. Maybe you use the same password at a different site (yahoo) and it was compromised. I...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 08, 2017 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 89
Views: 7738

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

I agree with most of this, but the strong version of the efficient market hypothesis cannot be correct. For if it were, it would be impossible ever to identify a bubble while it was in progress. This is clearly incorrect because quite a few people identified the NASDAQ dotcom bubble while it was in...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 08, 2017 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 89
Views: 7738

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

I agree with most of this, but the strong version of the efficient market hypothesis cannot be correct. For if it were, it would be impossible ever to identify a bubble while it was in progress. This is clearly incorrect because quite a few people identified the NASDAQ dotcom bubble while it was in...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A message from Bitcoin wallet Coinbase
Replies: 1
Views: 952

A message from Bitcoin wallet Coinbase

I just got an email from them. "we wanted to remind customers that access to Coinbase services may become degraded or unavailable during times of significant volatility or volume. This could result in the inability to buy or sell for periods of time. Despite ongoing increases in our support capacity...
by tadamsmar
Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does a Boglehead ever time the market?
Replies: 65
Views: 4758

Re: Does a Boglehead ever time the market?

Bogle gave a talk entitled "Law of Gravity: Reversion to the Mean": https://www.vanguard.com/bogle_site/lib/sp19980129.html He seems to mean an reversion to average performance. Reversion to average performance is not a basis for timing the market. Nobody says "Gee, X outperformed Y in the last deca...
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 89
Views: 7738

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

It's back at it's high. It's recovered from the 10% correction of a few hours ago!
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 89
Views: 7738

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

rkhusky wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:43 pm
Isn't it only a bubble if it pops?
It might not be a bubble even if it pops. Malkiel maintains that the internet bubble was rational because it could have been justified by spawning a single Microsoft-like growth firm. The rational argument has to pop, not just the bubble.
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 89
Views: 7738

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

I can't tell from the article what that even means. Largest % run up over X period of time? Largest by market cap? Absolute or nominal dollars? I did hear on NPR I think that Bitcoin market cap is equivalent to a top 20 S&P 500 company. That would make it equivalent to companies such as AT&T, Visa,...
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 89
Views: 7738

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

My rational argument is that Bitcoin has value as a medium of exchange to circumvent the law, mainly. The price run-up is not justified on that basis.
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 89
Views: 7738

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

The price dropped +10% and started fluctuating a few hours ago after it hit $16500.
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 89
Views: 7738

Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

See the November 30 plots here: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/30/bitcoin-dwarfing-some-of-the-largest-market-bubbles-of-all-time.html Given the bitcoin run-up since Nov 30, I'd say it's now bigger than the Mississippi Company bubble by the measure used in that link. Note that the information to quant...
by tadamsmar
Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I received a speeding ticket via mail from IA - should I pay it?
Replies: 72
Views: 5546

Re: I received a speeding ticket via mail from IA - should I pay it?

Iowa uses a collections agency and in rare case takes legal action:

http://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/ ... w-20150925

They were putting it on your credit report, but apparently that practice has been stopped.
by tadamsmar
Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Want to sell my Bitcoin, but when?
Replies: 90
Views: 9138

Re: Want to sell my Bitcoin, but when?

Draw them down for consumption during retirement. Or pass them to your heirs and let them get the stepped up basis. In other words, stay the course! :twisted: Or you could rebalance into another cryptocurrency and treat it as an un-taxed 1031 exchange. But I would research the heck out of that befor...