Search found 622 matches

by Pizzasteve510
Tue Oct 20, 2015 7:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab not so "intelligent"?
Replies: 5
Views: 1531

Re: Schwab not so "intelligent"?

Part of the higher expense ratios are also because Schwab charges a higher fee on Fundamental Indexes rather than pure index funds and allocates some money to these fundamental family funds. As mentioned, market cap weighted indexes are cheaper to manage and have lower fees, but make sure you are comparing apples to apples on expense ratios.

I personally prefer and hold the "cheaper" market cap weighted index fund ETFs like SCHB to these fundamental funds, but they are a different animal, so I understand why they are priced differently.
by Pizzasteve510
Tue Oct 20, 2015 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CalPERS and CA muni bonds
Replies: 4
Views: 943

Re: CalPERS and CA muni bonds

The ratio quoted is far from the full picture. For each state one must look at income, liabilities and the economy of the state to draw a meaningful conclusion. People love to imagine California falling off the earth for some reason, but it's revenue situation and economy overall are in much better shape than many others. With the baby boomers aging, this is an inevitable bulge of cost, but not a trend that will grow exponentially. Japan has the worst demographics driven problems.
by Pizzasteve510
Mon Oct 19, 2015 6:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: TaskRabbit
Replies: 15
Views: 3484

Re: TaskRabbit

TradingPlaces wrote:
Pizzasteve510 wrote:Some very talented young people might work for you if you vet your request. A friends newly graduated SUNY grad is working tasks there right now, so you might get a 20 something masters grad to do your errand for a pittance.
I have nothing against TaskRabbit or free markets, but man, what a waste of education.
Just filling in time while searching for a job she qualifies for.

[removed unimportant personal details]
by Pizzasteve510
Sun Oct 18, 2015 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Currently have 10 million invested, would appreciate feedback from Bogleheads
Replies: 23
Views: 3634

Re: Currently have 10 million invested, would appreciate feedback from Bogleheads

I would be interested in seeing the shape of your outperformance of the S&P. What returns have you actually had. Have you adjusted your returns for taxes? By concentrating on key areas, which performed for you? Do you think you would have outperformed if we had not been in a super lengthy bill market? Did you have any advantages, like an inherited start (ala Donald Trump, who inherited a smaller fortune?

It is hard to respond to such a vague post. What are your current positions?
by Pizzasteve510
Sat Oct 17, 2015 11:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: TaskRabbit
Replies: 15
Views: 3484

Re: TaskRabbit

Some very talented young people might work for you if you vet your request. A friends newly graduated SUNY grad is working tasks there right now, so you might get a 20 something masters grad to do your errand for a pittance.
by Pizzasteve510
Sat Oct 17, 2015 11:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Consumer items that are worth the initial investment?
Replies: 110
Views: 19789

Re: Consumer items that are worth the initial investment?

Good tip on the steel pizza baker. Just ordered a round one from Stoughton Steel, fits in Big Green Egg. Looking to upgrade from pizza stone, hope this works. I use mine in a regular oven at 550 (the max temp). One issue is that the pizza steel gets so hot that it cooks faster on the bottom than with a stone, but the top cooks just as fast either way. To deal with this, I turn on my broiler (that cooks only from the top) a little before I put a pizza in. That way, I'm getting extreme heat from top and bottom, and it cooks super fast. With the Green Egg, you might position the steel so the temp from the top is a little higher that what you are used to. Thanks. One of great things about this site is learning something new. Have had and used ...
by Pizzasteve510
Sat Oct 17, 2015 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gary Shilling Interview The 30 yr going to 2%
Replies: 10
Views: 2876

Re: Gary Shilling Interview The 30 yr going to 2%

Well with the 90 min listen. Great post. This guy gets it, though perhaps modern tech is a bit not fully understood in its structural impacts in business systems. If you don't have the time to respect this dialog, you should examine your patience and what you are looking for. A deeper understanding if the dynamics of our economy. Even the diving and bee keeping bits are insightful, if you think about it. The gem for me, 5-8 years to complete the deleverage, broken down by commercial and consumer. I large with his optimism about an up cycle of growth, but worry that corps will have a hard time capturing the growth vs consumers. From the guy who called the bond boom before it happened, well worth a 90 min listen. (But maybe it is the bushmill...
by Pizzasteve510
Sat Oct 17, 2015 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Consumer items that are worth the initial investment?
Replies: 110
Views: 19789

Re: Consumer items that are worth the initial investment?

Good tip on the steel pizza baker. Just ordered a round one from Stoughton Steel, fits in Big Green Egg. Looking to upgrade from pizza stone, hope this works. I use mine in a regular oven at 550 (the max temp). One issue is that the pizza steel gets so hot that it cooks faster on the bottom than with a stone, but the top cooks just as fast either way. To deal with this, I turn on my broiler (that cooks only from the top) a little before I put a pizza in. That way, I'm getting extreme heat from top and bottom, and it cooks super fast. With the Green Egg, you might position the steel so the temp from the top is a little higher that what you are used to. Thanks. One of great things about this site is learning something new. Have had and used ...
by Pizzasteve510
Sat Oct 17, 2015 12:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is The Bay Area Worth It?
Replies: 159
Views: 30023

Re: Is The Bay Area Worth It?

I think the thread has run its course. When some very bitter people post that someone else's home has nothing desirable about it, it is time to lock the thread. Sure, it is so expensive because everyone hates it. Please...those who are unhappy should pack up and move where they can live and be happy. As a consultant I have worked in probably 50 global cities, and my conclusion is that there is something pleasant about almost everywhere and something undesirable about almost everywhere too. Home is where your heart is.
by Pizzasteve510
Fri Oct 16, 2015 10:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is The Bay Area Worth It?
Replies: 159
Views: 30023

Re: Is The Bay Area Worth It?

Thread has served its purpose...edited out.
by Pizzasteve510
Wed Oct 14, 2015 11:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I move from Schwab ETFs (from portfolio builder) to Vanguard?
Replies: 10
Views: 1899

Re: Should I move from Schwab ETFs (from portfolio builder) to Vanguard?

indexin99 wrote:Thanks everyone. Advisor has been recommending I look into intelligent portfolio at schwab. Thoughts?
28 year Schwab customer here. Ignore your advisor. Stick with the low cost ETFs in a lazy portfolio. Intelligent portfolios will only increase your average expense ratios and pull a percent into cash, which will earn nada.
by Pizzasteve510
Mon Oct 12, 2015 7:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Older Investors Seeking Guidance
Replies: 31
Views: 3943

Re: Older Investors Seeking Guidance

Not to be an advertisement for Charles Schwab (appreciate both Fidelity and Vanguard), but they also have excellent service and can support a bogleheads investment philosophy quite well. If you have an office near you or are comfortable with them, consider that an additional option. I would avoid their managed services, but their ETF funds are quite good options. They might accept some investments Vanguard/Fidelity can't or vice versa. My family has a 30+ yr history with them and are quite pleased with them as a home for self managed retirement accounts.
by Pizzasteve510
Thu Oct 08, 2015 6:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What do you guys do on the side?
Replies: 299
Views: 39549

Re: What do you guys do on the side?

My recommendation would be to avoid "side hustles" that require grammar skills , like writing or teaching grammar to elementary school students and many in the audience here are ladies and so addressing this to the "guys" here might be misunderstood . Lol... I have edited the original post. I hope its to your liking. Thanks for the input, GUY. :wink: "Side Hustles" , interesting choice of words ; to me at least it brings up visions of a scam artist . No offense, and I really hope you take this the right way, but you should lighten up a bit. Not sure why übermax is übersnippy, but as a "gal" no offense taken to "guy" in your context. My women friends and coworkers use it with each other all ...
by Pizzasteve510
Thu Oct 08, 2015 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Household income increasing 2 fold, investment ??
Replies: 21
Views: 2227

Re: Household income increasing 2 fold, investment ??

Please take the time to read the wiki carefully. It represents advice that is highly vetted, independent of slants by people who want your money, and is written by among the best minds possible on investing. Each point is thoughtfully developed and deceptively important. Advice #1. You can do it yourself. Investing is a slow game that is much less complex than 'advisors' may try to tell you. Avoid fees paid to others. Invest in your own financial and investing education first. It pays the highest rewards. Advice #2. This site is heavily focused on a few key ideas. One is diversification. The second is time. Put together the two ideas lead one to buy and hold a passive index fund, like vanguard's. This is a proven, though not full proof inve...
by Pizzasteve510
Mon Oct 05, 2015 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Avoiding the dreaded AMT
Replies: 23
Views: 4110

Re: Avoiding the dreaded AMT

I always used TurboTax to figure out my AMT. Then I did "What if?" scenarios and could figure out by trial-and-error what I could do reduce or avoid it. I think the last time I paid AMT, it was about $12. But $25K in gains? What's up with that? One should be able to shelter all capital gains via tax-loss harvesting and simply not realizing gains until they are in a low tax bracket. Livesoft, the second comment doesn't sound like you. How can you assume tax loss harvesting is available or not realizing gains until a lower tax bracket is feasible for everyone? Some folks have little or no losses to harvest (pretty much anyone who has held their equity assets for 5yr+) and may be required to take gains (e.g. Have to exercise stock o...
by Pizzasteve510
Mon Oct 05, 2015 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman Sachs raises issues with indices, I debunk
Replies: 6
Views: 1422

Re: Goldman Sachs raises issues with indices, I debunk

Plenty of industries with similar value proposition:
* Gaming
* Big Tobacco
* Sodas/Snackfoods
* recreational Drug Dealers

Etc, etc.
by Pizzasteve510
Wed Sep 30, 2015 11:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you recommend a bread maker?
Replies: 30
Views: 3270

Re: Do you recommend a bread maker?

I had a bread maker for almost 20 years, which I used off and on. I gave it away a few years ago after I came across the book "Artisan Bread in Five Minutes a Day" http://www.amazon.com/Artisan-Bread-Five-Minutes-Revolutionizes-ebook/dp/B00F1R9D9Q/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1443656010&sr=1-1&keywords=artisan+bread+in+five+minutes+a+day . You can see the authors at work on Youtube. The wonderful thing that book did for me was to show me how simple it is to make bread; now I make bread several times a week. I combined elements of the approach of James Levine http://www.amazon.com/My-Bread-Revolutionary-No-Work-No-Knead/dp/0393066304/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1443656174&sr=1-1&keywords=new+yo...
by Pizzasteve510
Fri Sep 25, 2015 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aging and Increased Investing Risk
Replies: 50
Views: 4629

Re: Aging and Increased Investing Risk

It seems to me that there is an important distinction between investing and trading, and then in active investing vs passive investing. I agree with the basic assumption, but only with respect to active investing. It is probably especially true in the areas of technology and industries undergoing transformation. When I was very young my thoughts on where to invest were particularly insightful. While it may not apply today, I was using computers and understanding future winners quite reasonably well when 16-22 yrs old. I actually wrote my graduation thesis on how Oracle and IBM would dominate the database market in 20 yrs in 1985. The economics seemed obvious to me at the time, I did good research, and had access to a university with the bes...
by Pizzasteve510
Fri Sep 25, 2015 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bad time? [to open a taxable VG Total Stock Market Admiral Fund]
Replies: 21
Views: 2841

Re: Bad time?

I think feeling hesitant is normal, because you are exchanging one trust based asset for another and you must ask yourself, do you trust the new paper as much as the old paper. Personally I feel this is part of growing-up. As a young person you take for granted that money is worth something, by default. As you get older you realize even dollars are only a promise by a government and a society to honor their pledge. Basically the dollar is a representation of the trustworthiness and honor of the American people. Whereas a stock index fund represents trust in the productivity and profitability of thousands of companies, working together in the economy, supported by the foundation of governments, which through rule of law, hold it all together...
by Pizzasteve510
Tue Sep 22, 2015 12:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Individual Schwab Index Funds vs. Vanguard 2050 Target vs. Betterment
Replies: 22
Views: 4463

Re: Individual Schwab Index Funds vs. Vanguard 2050 Target vs. Betterment

One thing you might want to know from the start is what the charge is if you decide to move your IRA to another broker. IIRC, most charge $50-100 to close down your IRA. Vanguard does not charge to close a fund, AFAIK. If you agree to e-statements, there are no low-account fees either. Directly from site: Between Schwab brokerage accounts and outside accounts Online process. One-time or regularly scheduled transfers. Requires initial setup of Schwab MoneyLink. 1–2 business days $0 I have transferred assets to other brokers several times. Never an account-based fee, but perhaps I am missing something. I have been with them almost 30 years. Also, since there are no maintenance fees, one can also just leave a dormant account open with a 0 bal...
by Pizzasteve510
Tue Sep 22, 2015 12:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for advice. 24 yr/old young professional sold life insurance by NML.
Replies: 68
Views: 9758

Re: Looking for advice. 24 yr/old young professional sold life insurance by NML.

Novine wrote:I'm in my 40s and married. I don't have and never have had life insurance. We don't have kids and my wife can support herself if I was no longer around. I would rather invest the dollars that might go into term or whole life insurance into our retirement accounts.

You should seriously ask yourself why you need life insurance at all at this point in your life.
50 and ditto. Never bought it, never needed it. Assets always more than sufficient for my independent minded sig other to keep trucking with plenty to spare (if I died, we actually need less savings for retirement, don't we?).
by Pizzasteve510
Tue Sep 22, 2015 12:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Individual Schwab Index Funds vs. Vanguard 2050 Target vs. Betterment
Replies: 22
Views: 4463

Re: Individual Schwab Index Funds vs. Vanguard 2050 Target vs. Betterment

If you go with schwab, see if there is a sign up bonus going on. You might pick up a few hundred dollars in bonus cash. Periodically they offer bonuses for moving more money in as well. Ask your rep to email you if there is a promotion that current customer qualify for.

Tomorrow I am going to a ball game on the house. Gotta make them work for their fees, even if skinny ETF AUMs in the single digit basis points.
by Pizzasteve510
Mon Sep 21, 2015 7:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I less protected with chip-and-signature?
Replies: 58
Views: 6194

Re: Am I less protected with chip-and-signature?

There is a price for our laziness as a country (e.g. Not accepting chip+pin as the standard for convenience). The US has roughly 25% of global transactions and roughly 50% of the fraud. I don't think it's fair to say it was laziness. More likely the delay was due to typical business cost vs benefit analysis. Sometimes eating a loss is cheaper than trying to fix it. This Kansas City Fed doc has lots of good info about payment card fraud: https://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/econrev/pdf/13q1Sullivan.pdf On page 75, there's a table that shows the cost of fraud in the US runs around .11% of the total transaction value. In the UK, the number is .097% and in France it's .067%. So of the $2b in payment card fraud committed in the US, we can exp...
by Pizzasteve510
Mon Sep 21, 2015 7:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help with my financial plan
Replies: 28
Views: 3695

Re: Help with my financial plan

Hello everyone. I have a bit of an odd situation and I hope would hope to get some advice from a great forum. I have been reading on Bogle for a month or so now and I love everything that I hear. I am bit confused on how to invest my wife's inheritance. Any help would be greatly appreciated. Emergency funds - Yes, 6 months Tax filing status - married filing jointly Tax rate - Unsure, I am from NY I make 60k per year she makes 36k per year which is untaxable from an annuity thru Metlife Age - 27 Desired asset allocation - any suggestions are welcome You are young and your income sources seem quite predictable, therefor I think you can take some risk with your long term portfolio. I would lean towards 80/20 Equities and Bonds Current Retirem...
by Pizzasteve510
Mon Sep 21, 2015 7:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Question - I Really Need Some Help
Replies: 13
Views: 1729

Re: Portfolio Question - I Really Need Some Help

General Information Tax Filing Status: Single Tax Rate: 25% Federal, 9.3% State State of Residence: California Age: 35 Desired Asset allocation: I’m not really sure how to answer this. I am comfortable being fairly aggressive but not risky. Desired International allocation: Again, not sure… .....? My thoughts. Overall: * Aggressive is risky, so you can't really have it both ways. At your age you could go 90/10 or 80/20 Stock/Bond mix as a good plan. * You decide how much risk fits your return and timing targets. Reading your portfolio I think the appropriate Target Date Fund is a good idea for your investment needs. Thoughts for Roth IRA: * Too much overlap. Sell everything and make it 100% Vanguard Target Retirement 2035 Fund Investor Sha...
by Pizzasteve510
Sat Sep 19, 2015 9:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I less protected with chip-and-signature?
Replies: 58
Views: 6194

Re: Am I less protected with chip-and-signature?

There is a price for our laziness as a country (e.g. Not accepting chip+pin as the standard for convenience). The US has roughly 25% of global transactions and roughly 50% of the fraud.
by Pizzasteve510
Sat Sep 19, 2015 1:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab "Rethinking Asset Allocation"
Replies: 47
Views: 6353

Re: Schwab "Rethinking Asset Allocation"

A bit disappointed in my main broker, but they did send me ball game tickets this week, so they ain't all bad.
by Pizzasteve510
Sat Sep 19, 2015 1:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I less protected with chip-and-signature?
Replies: 58
Views: 6194

Re: Am I less protected with chip-and-signature?

There is a lot happening in the payments space right now. While EMVco defines the EMV standard, there is some variability in how an individual issuer bank programs their chips (they contain software) and merchant terminals program their devices to interface with the chip. Expect some variances during the transition period. This is no different from mag stripe terminals. Some require signing, some don't. I note that China is implementing their own variant of EMV which us not exactly compatible, so pretty much the whole world is buying into EMV for now. Their version is different enough that your card may not work in china unless they have coded the terminal to be compatible with two standards. No surprise there. When you see the logo for Uni...
by Pizzasteve510
Tue Sep 15, 2015 1:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are your best time-savers?
Replies: 108
Views: 17988

Re: What are your best time-savers?

Many good ones already.

Cooking Tips:
* cook more than you need and retain or freeze a dinner or lunch portion of food for an additional meal.
* one pot style dishes can save on clean-up and deliver protein, veggies fibre, etc for a balanced dish (eg coq a vin)
* study up on modern pressure cookers and other rapid or lower effort food techniques. You might find it faster, tastier and cheaper than getting to a restaurant to cook for yourself with some thoughtful shopping and equipment.
by Pizzasteve510
Thu Sep 10, 2015 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios [now live]
Replies: 439
Views: 124828

Re: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios [now live]

I wonder if there are computer programmers working on gaming the TLH algorithms with an arbitrage scheme. Fool robots into TLH such that they get tax breaks, hedge funds get cheap shares. What controls exist to prevent this is a question I would like to ask?
by Pizzasteve510
Thu Sep 10, 2015 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey - Help Me Understand His Investing Strategy
Replies: 96
Views: 19560

Re: Dave Ramsey - Help Me Understand His Investing Strategy

If we're going to extend the "financial advice as pizza" metaphor, then I guess the main criticisms with Dave are that: He not only recommends the pizza place that advertises with him, he also actively discourages people from baking their own pizza. He claims that you're actually better off ordering pizza from Ernie & Luigi's Pizza ("ELP" for short) than trying to make your own. Furthermore, not only will Ernie and Luigi always make a better pie than anything you can come up with, they'll also be there to "talk you out" of putting the wrong toppings on there during times of culinary uncertainty. He recommends only one type of pizza for everyone: 1/4 Pepperoni, 1/4 Sausage, 1/4 Bacon, and 1/4 Ham. Are you a...
by Pizzasteve510
Thu Sep 10, 2015 1:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey - Help Me Understand His Investing Strategy
Replies: 96
Views: 19560

Re: Dave Ramsey - Help Me Understand His Investing Strategy

DR is serving his own interests, so he makes it complicated. Generally, he wants to create a rationale for why: 1) you need to keep listening to him 2) give advertisers a reason to buy his endorcements, air time/seminar space for ads If it is too simple (e.g. Scott Adams all you need to know editorial all of one list), then his business model collapses. Personally I don't need a cheerleader to live within my means and invest in the best products. It seems bloody obvious to me (no offense to those who don't get it or needed help). It's the financial equivalent of someone who sells diet pills or diet programs. People know how to control their weight, but ... Ok, I'm going to do two crazy things, then make an obscure comment, so please have p...
by Pizzasteve510
Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan Market Up 7.71% Today
Replies: 21
Views: 3504

Re: Japan Market Up 7.71% Today

No.

The notion of value is not absolute and no theory suggests that a market of buyers and sellers has a perfect ability to price assets at any point in time.

Theory suggests markets are efficient over time.

Also, new information impacts perceived values. So for example, if the government announces a new, favorable fiscal policy that favors stocks, it is perfectly reasonable that asset values would rise almost instantly. A good example is China, where the govt imposed changes and the markets moved a huge amount.

In fact, the volatility may reflect efficiency rather than the opposite as you suggest. A constant stream of new information is changing prices on a continuous basis.
by Pizzasteve510
Sun Sep 06, 2015 1:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I woefully underfunded to retire and should I sell my rentals?
Replies: 42
Views: 5900

Re: Am I woefully underfunded to retire and should I sell my rentals?

One point on SS. It sounds like you are covered by a state govt pension and therefor it is unlikely you have been contributing to SS for many years. You may not qualify for much SS. That said, if you were ever married (or are interested) you could qualify for a spousal benefit at half your partners rate, assuming they contributed.

Sounds like time for an advisor (recommend a fee based, trusted accountant, not a salesman for funds and insurance).
by Pizzasteve510
Sun Sep 06, 2015 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4685104

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Why do we keep quoting the Dow? Most analysts agree the Dow is for the news and a metric based on only a few industrial stocks is not a good market indicator. Can we at least switch to quoting the S&P 500 or Russell 2000 or a vanguard fund? We should start teaching people to use the right metrics and set a better example. Thanks Most news organizations quote the Dow and it serves as an easier reference. I remember when Dow was at the 18k level, but the corresponding S&P500 level is not in my active memory. My heuristic is to pay attention to the Dow and divide it by 10 to estimate the corresponding S&P500 value. Ultimately, I care about my own assets. If the Dow and S&P500 are down approximately 2%, as they are at the momen...
by Pizzasteve510
Sun Sep 06, 2015 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you get better returns by overweighting low-PE assets?
Replies: 69
Views: 5684

Re: Can you get better returns by overweighting low-PE assets?

Nothing is certain. According to the efficient market hypothesis, stocks are fairly priced, so over the long term any asset class is likely to converge on a similar level of returns, so you can't generalize that one will do better than the other consistently. That's not what market efficiency means. You seem to be implying that over the long term, the return on bonds will converge to a level similar to that of stocks. I don't want to get into a definition debate, but yes they do, once adjusted for risk. You did not state "risk-adjusted return" in your original post. That's a different animal. 1. If you correct your quote to include the full post you will find that you are wrong. 2. If you actually think, you will realize that the...
by Pizzasteve510
Sat Sep 05, 2015 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who does TLH better? You or Robo-Advisors?
Replies: 12
Views: 2014

Re: Who does TLH better? You or Robo-Advisors?

My view is that TLH is of limited value after a few years, so avoiding an AUM fee is my preference. The behavioral advantage of habitually doing nothing is worth more than the occasional tax savings, again in my opinion only.

I have also seen many a CFO encourage poor business decisions in an effort to minimize taxes.
by Pizzasteve510
Wed Sep 02, 2015 3:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any advice on smallish repipe job
Replies: 15
Views: 1987

Any advice on smallish repipe job

Plumbers and age of investment property suggesting a whole repipe of a 1950s 900 sq ft 2/1 house is needed. Any advice on evaluating quotes or things to ask plumber to include contractually? Looks like about a $5k job with copper. Thanks.
by Pizzasteve510
Tue Sep 01, 2015 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you get better returns by overweighting low-PE assets?
Replies: 69
Views: 5684

Re: Can you get better returns by overweighting low-PE assets?

Nothing is certain. According to the efficient market hypothesis, stocks are fairly priced, so over the long term any asset class is likely to converge on a similar level of returns, so you can't generalize that one will do better than the other consistently. That's not what market efficiency means. You seem to be implying that over the long term, the return on bonds will converge to a level similar to that of stocks. 1) I won't admit to understanding anything, but I think market efficiency does mean, and perhaps Pizzasteve510 meant to say, that they should converge on a similar risk-adjusted return . 2) And, just for the record, Glassman and Hassett's book, Dow 36,000 said that the return on bonds and the return on stocks would converge. ...
by Pizzasteve510
Tue Sep 01, 2015 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you get better returns by overweighting low-PE assets?
Replies: 69
Views: 5684

Re: Can you get better returns by overweighting low-PE assets?

Nothing is certain. According to the efficient market hypothesis, stocks are fairly priced, so over the long term any asset class is likely to converge on a similar level of returns, so you can't generalize that one will do better than the other consistently. That's not what market efficiency means. You seem to be implying that over the long term, the return on bonds will converge to a level similar to that of stocks. I don't want to get into a definition debate, but yes they do, once adjusted for risk. Bonds and equities have different risk and volatility levels, hence different expected returns. How markets price in efficient markets is a complex topic subject to many ideas, so generally I try to post in this forum in words I think a lay...
by Pizzasteve510
Tue Sep 01, 2015 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: About to close on a home we have overbid on - have cold feet
Replies: 74
Views: 14206

Re: About to close on a home we have overbid on - have cold feet

I hope it works out either way. When I moved back to the SF area in the late 90s and paid 500k I was freaking out (having sold a paid for beautiful house in a central state for 50% less). Houses were lasting days on the market. Now I wish I had stretched for the 800k home I liked better.

If you can afford it, move in, be happy. If you can't, try to have an attorney get you out. Try not to obsess about the power lines.
by Pizzasteve510
Tue Sep 01, 2015 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the Three Fund Portfolio need a roboadviser?
Replies: 92
Views: 11901

Re: Does the Three Fund Portfolio need a roboadviser?

Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought the advantage of frequent tax loss harvesting is to harness losses of specific tax lots. As the market fluctuates, a robo advisor, or perhaps a dedicated and educated DIY investor who monitors they're portfolio daily, can take advantage of temporary losses to offset the very gains you are talking about. From this standpoint I do feel that there is real value in the robo-route. Most people have the neither time nor the interest in monitoring with the frequency you would have to in order to compete with a roboadviser from the TLH standpoint. I wholeheartedly agree that there is diminishing returns. Once your portfolio has grown beyond the advantages of TLH and it no longer provides benefit, then an advis...
by Pizzasteve510
Tue Sep 01, 2015 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4685104

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Why do we keep quoting the Dow? Most analysts agree the Dow is for the news and a metric based on only a few industrial stocks is not a good market indicator. Can we at least switch to quoting the S&P 500 or Russell 2000 or a vanguard fund? We should start teaching people to use the right metrics and set a better example.

Thanks
by Pizzasteve510
Tue Sep 01, 2015 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you get better returns by overweighting low-PE assets?
Replies: 69
Views: 5684

Re: Can you get better returns by overweighting low-PE assets?

Nothing is certain. According to the efficient market hypothesis, stocks are fairly priced, so over the long term any asset class is likely to converge on a similar level of returns, so you can't generalize that one will do better than the other consistently. Each individual stock is priced based on what the market believes they will earn, adjusted for expected risks. Therefor, in theory, assets will be priced at roughly the cost of capital plus some expected return associated with what the market thinks is the appropriate 'risk premium.' So assets with similar risk will, in theory, deliver similar returns. Of course returns don't always pan out and so the market must constantly re-price assets. In summary, since we can't guess which assets...
by Pizzasteve510
Tue Sep 01, 2015 9:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I have a Confession...Dave Ramsey...Help!
Replies: 70
Views: 12248

Re: I have a Confession...Dave Ramsey...Help!

...but I am starting to fantasize about stopping taxable investing/saving and aggressively wiping out at least one of our rental mortgages instead (we have a $95K one at 5.0% that could be gone in just over a year if we directed all extra cash to it instead of to savings or brokerage). Am I crazy? Or is my wavering comfort-level with leverage crazy? I can hardly dispute the rationality of paying down debts (and minimizing living expenses) first before really loading up. ... Perspectives welcome. I know the "invest or repay debt" question is as old as this forum, but it's a horse we all love to take a whack at from time to time it seems. Hi Meg, I have a strong respect for you and your humanity and humility make it only stronger. ...
by Pizzasteve510
Mon Aug 31, 2015 12:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tire rotation
Replies: 59
Views: 10562

Re: Tire rotation

Please Rotate the tires. If you get Oil Changed at MIdas Rotation is free with Oil change. When you need a new set get it from Tire Discounters or Costco ( My Choice), rotation is free for the life of tires. So you will not pay for rotation. I have never purchased a set of tires from dealers. Be aware that I have had Costco refuse to honor their free tire rotation, claiming that wear made it unsafe to rotate the tires. When I took my car to an honest shop, they told me I had 60% still left in the tires and that Cosco was full of .... I escalated to a regional manager and all he did was make excuses and hide behind 'policy.' From what I can tell, their staff are trained to 'be conservative' meaning 'under measure' tread and apply these poli...
by Pizzasteve510
Sat Aug 29, 2015 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the Three Fund Portfolio need a roboadviser?
Replies: 92
Views: 11901

Re: Does the Three Fund Portfolio need a roboadviser?

Am I missing something? I don't think so. I'm not a TLH maven -- is there a likelihood that it's worth 25 bps? I think probably not, but I'm open to contradiction. Betterment is only .15:). TLH is tough to quantify and depends on your situation. It is easy to get .5-2% tax alphas early with only moderate corrections(the 10% ones not the 50%) for people in the high tax brackets but as the portfolio ages, less and less of the assets are likely to help generate any TLH benefits. After all the stock market doesnt hit 20 year lows very often and your contributions are a fraction of the portfolio. At that point most of the TLH benefits are a result of compounding of those prior gains. If you are willing to put in some time and go with a 6 fund p...
by Pizzasteve510
Sat Aug 29, 2015 10:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Behavioral Interview for Leadership Posistion
Replies: 32
Views: 5369

Re: Behavioral Interview for Leadership Posistion

Glad to help. Was our advice helpful? I was a bit worried about general advice that was not applicable to behavioral interviewing methods. The probing for detail is part of the technique, intended to our liars (as someone previously claimed folks do). It is hard to keep a lie/exaggerated story about behaviors going if detailed probing questions are asked.
by Pizzasteve510
Sat Aug 29, 2015 9:59 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Low-cost Indexing versus Real Estate Investing
Replies: 17
Views: 4074

Re: Low-cost Indexing versus Real Estate Investing

Should I take a lot of risk and possibly receive a risk premium, or take some risk and get a smaller premium? I don't know, what is your risk tolerance? (Note we own rental property and index funds). One requires work.
by Pizzasteve510
Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston
Replies: 71
Views: 9418

Re: Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston

Yes there is a global surplus of capital.

What can the average investor so about it?

1) take advantage of the cheap capital to create a business or buy stuff like homes/cars (what governments are hoping for with low rates)

2) invest in a market where assets are overpriced due to competition from surplus capital. Hence expected returns won't be great.

#1 can yield good returns, with high risk. #2 will yield weak returns (hence bond prices) with a relatively predictable range of possible outcomes

Welcome to our world.