Search found 2462 matches

by #Cruncher
Sun Dec 19, 2010 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS Advice
Replies: 3
Views: 1137

This link provides a list of all TIPS ordered by maturity date: http://web.me.com/rlhinkley/tips/tipslist_mat.html There are TIPS maturing every year thru 2020. Then there's a gap until 2025. Here's another link that shows all outstanding TIPS with current market prices: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/pu...
by #Cruncher
Sun Dec 19, 2010 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculating Return
Replies: 3
Views: 775

21.73039 / 19.35 = 12.30% increase, pretty close to the published 12.31%. Since the dividends are re-invested, they needn't be directly considered; they are implicitly taken into account in the final value of your holding. Also, consider formatting your columns to show the same number of decimal pla...
by #Cruncher
Sun Dec 19, 2010 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International (New) Investor Portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 2833

I know it's low [60% in stocks], and everything I've read indicates that at my age I should be a bit more "bold". The thing is I got a windfall equivalent for about 15/20 years working in my job and I don't think I'd be confortable losing a big portion of it. Andre, I don't think any of us here wou...
by #Cruncher
Sat Dec 18, 2010 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International (New) Investor Portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 2833

Re: International (New) Investor Portfolio

Bonds: 40% I have no clue what I should choose here. Are ETF's ok for this as well? Like iShares eb.rexx Government Germany (DE)? If yes, should I pick one or more? Should I read a book specifically about bonds or is it simple enough that I can “randomly” pick one or two bond funds and stick with i...
by #Cruncher
Sat Dec 18, 2010 9:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inflation: typical view on this forum?
Replies: 2
Views: 874

Re: Inflation: typical view on this forum?

Now having built up a sizeable portfolio close to retirement, my concerns start to move toward maintaining its purchasing power and don't lose it all to inflations. Given your age and large portfolio, you should probably have a large % in bonds. Given your concert about inflation, a large % of the ...
by #Cruncher
Sat Dec 18, 2010 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is tips real yield over 2.5 (or 3, whatever) a "free lu
Replies: 53
Views: 7237

Re: Real Yield

OK, if the results have little to do with any "thinness" in the market how do explain the results? By "results" I assume you mean the higher real yield, on average, of the five 10-year TIPS vs the nominals. I can only speculate: Statistical fluke. Five cases is a small sample. Your points about thi...
by #Cruncher
Sat Dec 18, 2010 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which has more risk muni's or corp?
Replies: 54
Views: 5443

As b aw703916 says, municipals have historically had lower defaults than corporates of the same rating . E.g., AA munis have been safer than AA corporates. I think municipal defaults, being a rare thing, tend to get a lot of news coverage and this may cause us to think they are riskier than they rea...
by #Cruncher
Sat Dec 18, 2010 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is tips real yield over 2.5 (or 3, whatever) a "free lu
Replies: 53
Views: 7237

Re: Real Yield

#Cruncher, you are still crunching numbers that may have little to no validity. You could be right, Doc. As they say, past performance is no guarantee of future performance. But I do take issue with a couple of your points: 1) You say the early TIPS market was "thin". Maybe after-market trading was...
by #Cruncher
Sat Dec 18, 2010 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Notes Return vs Actual TIPS Return
Replies: 10
Views: 2835

Treasury Notes Return vs Actual TIPS Return

I was curious how the yield-to-maturity on non-inflation-protected Treasuries has compared to comparable TIPS. Seven TIPS have so far matured: five 10-year and two 5-year. I looked up the actual return after inflation adjustment for the seven TIPS. I then looked up the yields for the seven nominal T...
by #Cruncher
Sat Dec 18, 2010 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard's REIT Index
Replies: 17
Views: 3286

Besides the standard considerations (age, risk tolerance etc.) I'd also consider home ownership. Even though REITs invest in other types of real estate, if you own a home, I'd put less into REITs than if you don't. As other posters have said, they are quite volatile. I only have a 5% allocation, bu...
by #Cruncher
Sat Dec 18, 2010 12:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with choosing investments
Replies: 6
Views: 1096

Re: Help with choosing investments

So my idea is to invest in the riskiest asset class I can find and hope for a really good year. Currently thinking of small caps or emerging markets. ... What would you do to get the biggest return over the next two years? Normally an investor would diversify to reduce risk. But the unusual situati...
by #Cruncher
Fri Dec 17, 2010 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is tips real yield over 2.5 (or 3, whatever) a "free lu
Replies: 53
Views: 7237

Re: Real Yield

Use the longer term nominal Treasury and inflation data that is available and apply it to TIPS knowing that it may be only an approximate value. We started this by saying the "natural range" of real yields was ~1 to 3%. If it turns out to be ~1.085 to 3.176% it should not change your decision. I th...
by #Cruncher
Fri Dec 17, 2010 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is tips real yield over 2.5 (or 3, whatever) a "free lu
Replies: 53
Views: 7237

Re: Real Yield

Real Yield Definition: Return from an investment adjusted for the effects of inflation. (emphasis added) Yes, but what investment? Ignoring the "ifs, and, and buts" Doc mentions, the real yield of TIPS is known at the time of purchase. But the real yield on nominal Treasuries is known only after th...
by #Cruncher
Fri Dec 17, 2010 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Transfer of IRA to Vanguard/Opinion on STRIPS bond
Replies: 5
Views: 962

First of all, thanks very much for the reply! ... I guess what confused me is the fact that the bond was apparently purchased for such a low percentage of par, although I guess some of that is the nature of this type of bond? You're welcome! I'm not an expert on STRIPS (have never owned any) but I ...
by #Cruncher
Fri Dec 17, 2010 12:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compostion of TIPS returns
Replies: 4
Views: 1067

The designer needs to come up with a different chart type since stacked bar charts can't combine positive and negative components. sscritic is right about the size of the bars: it looks like the chart maker ran out of room at the bottom! The yearly inflation component agrees with the Oct CPI figures...
by #Cruncher
Thu Dec 16, 2010 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Transfer of IRA to Vanguard/Opinion on STRIPS bond
Replies: 5
Views: 962

I'm assuming by "$25 per share" and "$90 per share" you mean 25% of par and 90% of par. The current price of the Aug 15, 2016 Treasury STRIPS is 87.2%. (source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-tstrips.html?mod=mdc_bnd_pglnk ) Since it will be paid at 100% in 5.7 years it will be earning...
by #Cruncher
Thu Dec 16, 2010 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is tips real yield over 2.5 (or 3, whatever) a "free lu
Replies: 53
Views: 7237

Re: Real Yield Natural Range

A few have commented on the real yield range based on TIPS data. You need to go beyond TIPS to get a wider view. You can do back many decades by just subtracting inflation from ten year Treasury yields. Yes, but it's a different meaning of real yield. For example, assume a 10-year bond had a nomina...
by #Cruncher
Wed Dec 15, 2010 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is tips real yield over 2.5 (or 3, whatever) a "free lu
Replies: 53
Views: 7237

Re: Is tips real yield over 2.5 (or 3, whatever) a "fre

Real yields have a "natural range" of maybe 1 to 3%... Made me curious so I took a look. Real yield to maturity at auction on, say 10-year, TIPS has ranged from 4.3% (4.25% of Jan 15 2010 issued 1/18/2000) down to 0.4% (1.25% of Jul 15, 2020 reissued 11/15/2010 - just a month ago!). Source: http://...
by #Cruncher
Tue Dec 14, 2010 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is tips real yield over 2.5 (or 3, whatever) a "free lu
Replies: 53
Views: 7237

Re: Is tips real yield over 2.5 (or 3, whatever) a "fre

Why is TIPS buying targeted to real yield, a successful expectant timing move, when timing stock market, on say PE10, or whatever, expectantly NOT successful? A good question. It does seem that some "random walk" type investors abandon their principles when considering TIPS. My guess is that simple...
by #Cruncher
Sun Dec 12, 2010 1:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When is it worthwhile to keep an individual stock?
Replies: 52
Views: 6688

My cost basis from the time of my mother's death is a little higher than XOM is selling for now, so I could use the loss on my taxes this year. I won't have much capital gains this year to offset. Is that the only way a loss could benefit me tax-wise? Should I sell some now and sell the rest in 201...
by #Cruncher
Sat Dec 11, 2010 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When is it worthwhile to keep an individual stock?
Replies: 52
Views: 6688

dbr wrote:... the cost basis, which is probably its value on the date of the previous owner's death.
This is correct. I know from when my mother died and I sold some stock from her estate. Also, all capital gains or losses are considered long-term, regardless of the holding period.
by #Cruncher
Sat Dec 11, 2010 11:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Scale of the Universe
Replies: 23
Views: 2545

I love the comment at the high end of the Web presentation, "We're probably not the center of the University." Yep, our ideas have advanced since the classical Greeks. We've gone through the cycle of thinking we were at the center of something big and then discovering that we weren't often enough t...
by #Cruncher
Sat Dec 11, 2010 6:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Scale of the Universe
Replies: 23
Views: 2545

A nice update to this classic from 1977: Powers of Ten Here's a link to the 9 minute film narrated by Philip Morrison: http://www.powersof10.com/film which I find more enjoyable and artistically satisfying. But this new variation is impressive. It presents more facts and goes beyond the scale of th...
by #Cruncher
Fri Dec 10, 2010 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying individual TIPS for IRAs
Replies: 15
Views: 1566

If you are interested in learned more about TIPS, The Finance Buff (tfb) who posts frequently on this forum has written a book about TIPS, Explore TIPS , which is available through Amazon. It is relatively short but does a very good job of clearly explaining how TIPS work, tax consequences, and the...
by #Cruncher
Wed Dec 08, 2010 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FF video: TIPS vs. T-Bills for inflation protection
Replies: 5
Views: 1150

Worth watching. In about 7 minutes Prof French explains the components of return for 1-mo T-bills and intermediate terms TIPS and the risks each instrument would have over a 7 or 10 year period.

The video ran fine with Safari but not with Firefox or Chrome on my Mac.
by #Cruncher
Tue Dec 07, 2010 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: newbie question about long-term bond funds
Replies: 11
Views: 1674

Re: newbie question about long-term bond funds

if [interest rates] rise ... my principal is likely to decrease. However, if I'm holding these for retirement, which is ~30 years from now (I'm 37 now), do I really care that much? Yes, you should. In the case of an individual bond once interest rates go up, you've lost value whether you sell immed...
by #Cruncher
Tue Dec 07, 2010 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Selling off inherited funds-suited my Dad-next move?
Replies: 3
Views: 854

Re: Selling off inherited funds-suited my Dad-next move?

CrossOverGuy wrote:Is it prudent for me to just take my time leaving these in cash and perhaps buying more when I see the market go down?
I suggest start moving toward your desired asset allocation right away and don't attempt to time the market. It can be imprudent to keep too much cash.
by #Cruncher
Mon Dec 06, 2010 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does any Retiree buy TIPS bonds via Treasury Direct?
Replies: 11
Views: 2197

I haven't simply because I find it more convenient to buy them through my broker. But the comment from Index Fan about "lack of recourse if there are problems" now makes me worry about my I-bonds there. I'll need to look for posts that elucidate this.
by #Cruncher
Mon Dec 06, 2010 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mechanics of Individual TIPS
Replies: 7
Views: 1164

There's usually a significant bid/ask spread for small quantities of any type of bond sold in the secondary market, including TIPS. So it would be better, if possible, to wait until maturity. It's also less costly to buy TIPS or other Treasuries at auction rather than in the secondary market if the ...
by #Cruncher
Mon Dec 06, 2010 12:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Value of I Bonds in a young investor's portfolio?
Replies: 16
Views: 2586

I actually bought $1K worth of I bond earlier this year to see how to do it at Treasury Direct. I can't figure out how to log back in anymore, so this is dead money. Have you phoned TreasuryDirect? I don't think anyone on this forum will rest easy until we find out that you can access your money. :(
by #Cruncher
Mon Dec 06, 2010 12:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A question on "financial understanding"
Replies: 26
Views: 4390

I would think your situation is not unusual at all. Do you have any children who are 1) honest, 2) financially savvy, and 3) willing to help out? My mother, who knew nothing about investing, outlived my father by about 10 years. While he was still alive they set up a joint brokerage account at Schwa...
by #Cruncher
Mon Dec 06, 2010 12:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Value of I Bonds in a young investor's portfolio?
Replies: 16
Views: 2586

By definition an I-bond with a 0% base rate has a 0% pre-tax real rate of return (as long as inflation exceeds 0%). Therefore, if you pay any taxes at all, the after-tax return will necessarily be negative. Your 3% CD rate seems good by comparison and I would tend to go that route.
by #Cruncher
Sun Dec 05, 2010 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International Component?
Replies: 10
Views: 1320

I don't believe that VTIAX holds any Canadian stocks. The Vanguard web site implies that it might ( The fund tracks stock markets all over the globe, with the exception of the United States ) But the index it tracks is described as companies located in Europe, the Pacific region, and emerging market...
by #Cruncher
Sun Dec 05, 2010 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds or savings account?
Replies: 11
Views: 4229

I just took a look at IBGS on iShares web site: http://nl.ishares.com/en/pc/funds/IBGS It says it tracks the Barclays Capital Euro Government Bond 1-3 Year Term Index . But it holds only 10 bonds issued by 4 countries! Germany and Italy each comprise about 40% of total assets, and France and Holland...
by #Cruncher
Sun Dec 05, 2010 2:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Have index funds outperformed blue chip dividend stocks?
Replies: 31
Views: 7614

I don't think there are very many "blue chip" stocks paying 6% dividends. That high a yield can indicate the market considers the stock risky. I don't know of an index that covers the types of stocks you're interested in. But I did look at the Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index fund (VHDYX) which co...
by #Cruncher
Sat Dec 04, 2010 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving 401(k) to IRA While Still Employed
Replies: 15
Views: 3851

Thanks for the advice, everyone. I work for a 13-person firm and have talked to the boss about switching to another mutual fund provider. But he's reluctant, I believe, for the following reasons: He believes in actively managed funds and likes the Columbia funds he personally has invested in. They'v...
by #Cruncher
Sat Dec 04, 2010 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Fund question
Replies: 7
Views: 1185

Don't let the fact that it's a mutual fund confuse you. Just imagine yourself having a large portfolio of bonds. Then imagine the following: Every month some of your bonds mature and you reinvest the proceeds in new bonds. Some months you work overtime and use the extra money to buy new bonds. Some ...
by #Cruncher
Sat Dec 04, 2010 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving 401(k) to IRA While Still Employed
Replies: 15
Views: 3851

Moving 401(k) to IRA While Still Employed

I've been socking away the maximum contribution to my 401(k) for 10 years. I've always been upset by the choice of funds available. I have to choose from actively managed funds offered by Columbia. And as the total value has grown, the expense ratios ranging from 1.5% to over 2% are eating away more...
by #Cruncher
Sat Dec 04, 2010 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: need advice when to allocate funds now or hold out
Replies: 13
Views: 1228

Goal is to try to allocate $5000 per per category for the first 10 years, then build up from there. Don't know what you mean by "category". The Vanguard Star fund is made up of 11 actively managed mutual funds with a 60 / 40 overall stock / bond allocation. I've never liked funds of funds - they st...
by #Cruncher
Sat Dec 04, 2010 5:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you max out your 401k at the beginning of the year?
Replies: 55
Views: 9319

I guess it depends on the type of fund your contributions go into. If you're investing in a fund whose price doesn't fluctuate much (e.g., a short-term bond fund) doing it early in the year would increase your tax-deferred income. But if you're investing in a fund whose price could fluctuate a lot (...
by #Cruncher
Sat Dec 04, 2010 4:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What assets to use to buy a home?
Replies: 4
Views: 941

Even 1.1% is above current market rates. Current I-bonds and 5-year TIPS are have a fixed / real rate of only about 0.0%. Another reason to hold on to them is to defer paying taxes.
by #Cruncher
Sat Dec 04, 2010 4:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Bogle and "treasuries"
Replies: 2
Views: 1264

"Treasuries" generally refers to notes or bonds issued directly by the US Treasury. On Vanguard's web site I see 4 funds that invest only in these (I list the symbols for the investor / admiral classes): Short-term Treasury (VFISX / VFIRX) Intermediate-term Treasury (VFITX / VFIUX) Long-term Treasur...
by #Cruncher
Sat Dec 04, 2010 3:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What assets to use to buy a home?
Replies: 4
Views: 941

Re: What assets to use to buy a home?

When I sold our home in 2001, I put the proceeds into I-bonds. In determining our asset allocation (33Eq/65Bd/2csh) I did not count the I-bonds as a percent of our portfolio because I considered them to represent our "house". I have always planned to simply use the I-bonds to buy our next house, bu...
by #Cruncher
Sat Dec 04, 2010 2:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I bond
Replies: 26
Views: 4109

What's the value in an I-Bond other than the speculation or hope that CPI will be higher in the coming years? There is talk of deflation, not inflation. How do those holding I-Bonds feel about a prolonged period of deflation and the impact it will have on wanting to hold I-Bonds? The following web ...
by #Cruncher
Fri Dec 03, 2010 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to Evaluate TIPS Funds/ETFs
Replies: 6
Views: 959

Thanks tfb. Is there a way to estimate the "real" yield? Each day the treasury reports the approximate real yields for 5, 7, 10, 20, and 30 year TIPS on the following web page: http://www.ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml The following WSJ web page ...
by #Cruncher
Fri Dec 03, 2010 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I bond
Replies: 26
Views: 4109

nisiprius makes a good point about the "put" option of I-bonds. Another thing in their favor is that, unlike TIPS, the principal can't go down. Since the current base rate is 0%, if the CPI declines in any of the 6-month periods used to calculate the composite rate, your I-bond value isn't reduced....
by #Cruncher
Fri Dec 03, 2010 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: portfolio [updated 12/4]
Replies: 14
Views: 1574

I also would like to move the IRA contributions away from American Funds, given that they are class A shares my wife isn't quite in agreement with this since we've paid the fees already for them. The sales charge is a sunk cost so it's irrelevant when deciding whether to move your IRA . You should ...
by #Cruncher
Sun Nov 28, 2010 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond ETF in Euro
Replies: 9
Views: 1771

There are 4 SPDR ETFs that invest in foreign bonds some of which are euro-denominated: Sym Exp Dur Euro% Descrip BWX 0.50 6.7yr 35% Sovereign BWZ 0.35 1.8yr 40% Sovereign IBND 0.55 4.5yr 60% Corporate WIP 0.30 9.5yr 30% Inflation Protected More info at https://www.spdrs.com/ I'm estimating the euro ...
by #Cruncher
Wed Nov 24, 2010 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CD or TIPS in 401K (Fidelity BrokerageLink)?
Replies: 2
Views: 1164

I would suggest putting something into TIPS. This link shows current real yields (before inflation adjustment): http://www.ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml The 5-year yield currently is about 0%. So your actual yield would be solely based on the fut...
by #Cruncher
Wed Nov 24, 2010 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Need a 100% TIPS portfolio now
Replies: 89
Views: 14342

Here's a link to the outstanding TIPS: http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/tipscpi/tipscpi.htm When you find the maturity dates that you want, you can look up the CUSIPs and go your broker. Here's a web page that provides a more useful listing of TIPS in maturity date order: http://eye...